** WTIN20 DEMS 140615 *** TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK ------------------------ DEMS -RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONES NEW DELHI 14-08-2006(.) TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NORTH INDIAN OCEAN (THE BAY OF BENGAL AND THE ARABIAN SEA ) VALID FOR NEXT 24 HOURS ISSUED AT 0600 UTC (.) CONVECTIVE CLOUDS ARE SEEN OVER NORTH AND EAST CENTRAL BAY OF BENGAL, AND NORTH ANDAMAN SEA (.) RIDGE LINE AT 200 HPA RUNS ALONG 27 DEG NORTH OVER INDIAN REGION. ** WTPQ20 BABJ 140600 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TS WUKONG 0610 (0610) INITIAL TIME 140600 UTC 00HR 26.7N 137.8E 990HPA 23M/S 30KTS 250KM P12HR NW 10KM/H P+24HR 27.8N 136.9E 985HPA 25M/S P+48HR 28.7N 134.7E 980HPA 30M/S P+72HR 28.6N 132.0E 975HPA 33M/S= ** WTPQ20 BABJ 140600 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TS SONAMU 0611 (0611) INITIAL TIME 140600 UTC 00HR 18.8N 131.3E 995HPA 20M/S 30KTS 150KM P12HR NE 20KM/H P+24HR 21.0N 135.3E 985HPA 25M/S P+48HR 25.2N 138.4E 975HPA 30M/S P+72HR 29.5N 138.8E 975HPA 30M/S= ** WTJP21 RJTD 140600 *** WARNING 140600. WARNING VALID 150600. WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS. STORM WARNING. TROPICAL STORM 0610 WUKONG (0610) 985 HPA AT 26.6N 137.7E SEA SOUTH OF JAPAN MOVING NORTHWEST SLOWLY. POSITION FAIR. MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 210 MILES. FORECAST POSITION FOR 150600UTC AT 28.6N 137.1E WITH 80 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 975 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. FORECAST POSITION FOR 160600UTC AT 28.7N 135.1E WITH 150 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 965 HPA, MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. FORECAST POSITION FOR 170600UTC AT 28.6N 133.7E WITH 220 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 955 HPA, MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 140600 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TS 0610 WUKONG (0610) ANALYSIS PSTN 140600UTC 26.6N 137.7E FAIR MOVE NW SLOWLY PRES 985HPA MXWD 045KT 30KT 210NM FORECAST 24HF 150600UTC 28.6N 137.1E 80NM 70% MOVE NNW SLOWLY PRES 975HPA MXWD 055KT 48HF 160600UTC 28.7N 135.1E 150NM 70% MOVE W SLOWLY PRES 965HPA MXWD 060KT 72HF 170600UTC 28.6N 133.7E 220NM 70% MOVE W SLOWLY PRES 955HPA MXWD 070KT = ** WTJP22 RJTD 140600 *** WARNING 140600. WARNING VALID 150600. WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS. GALE WARNING. TROPICAL STORM 0611 SONAMU (0611) 992 HPA AT 18.7N 131.4E SEA EAST OF PHILIPPINES MOVING EASTNORTHEAST 17 KNOTS. POSITION FAIR. MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 150 MILES SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 130 MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION FOR 150600UTC AT 22.1N 137.8E WITH 100 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 992 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. FORECAST POSITION FOR 160600UTC AT 29.5N 140.5E WITH 160 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 992 HPA. BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ21 RJTD 140600 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TS 0611 SONAMU (0611) ANALYSIS PSTN 140600UTC 18.7N 131.4E FAIR MOVE ENE 17KT PRES 992HPA MXWD 040KT 30KT 150NM SOUTHEAST 130NM NORTHWEST FORECAST 24HF 150600UTC 22.1N 137.8E 100NM 70% MOVE NE 17KT PRES 992HPA MXWD 040KT 48HF 160600UTC 29.5N 140.5E 160NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION = ** WTKO20 RKSL 140600 *** KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 3 NAME TS 0610 WUKONG ANALYSIS POSITION 140600UTC 26.6N 137.7E MOVEMENT NW 5KT PRES/VMAX 985HPA 41KT FORECAST 24HR POSITION 150600UTC 27.8N 136.8E WITHIN 80NM PRES/VMAX 975HPA 49KT 48HR POSITION 160600UTC 28.8N 134.8E WITHIN 135NM PRES/VMAX 965HPA 56KT 72HR POSITION 170600UTC 29.1N 132.9E WITHIN 245NM PRES/VMAX 955HPA 64KT KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION. ** WTKO20 RKSL 140600 *** KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 2 NAME TS 0611 SONAMU ANALYSIS POSITION 140600UTC 18.7N 131.4E MOVEMENT ENE 18KT PRES/VMAX 996HPA 35KT FORECAST 24HR POSITION 150600UTC 21.6N 136.8E WITHIN 80NM PRES/VMAX 992HPA 35KT 48HR POSITION 160600UTC 27.5N 139.5E WITHIN 135NM PRES/VMAX 990HPA 41KT 72HR POSITION 170600UTC 31.6N 139.7E WITHIN 215NM PRES/VMAX 990HPA 41KT KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION. ** WTPQ30 RJTD 140600 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING REASONING NO. 4 FOR TS 0610 WUKONG (0610) 1.GENERAL COMMENTS REASONING OF PROGNOSIS THIS TIME IS SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS ONE. POSITION FORECAST IS MAINLY BASED ON NWP AND PERSISTENCY. 2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION NOTHING PARTICULAR TO EXPLAIN. 3.MOTION FORECAST POSITION ACCURACY AT 140600 UTC IS FAIR. TS WILL MOVE AT THE SAME SPEED FOR THE NEXT 72 HOURS. TS WILL MOVE NORTH-NORTHWEST FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS THEN MOVE TO WEST. 4.INTENSITY FORECAST TS WILL BE GRADED UP TO STS WITHIN 24 HOURS. TS WILL DEVELOP BECAUSE CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURE NEAR CYCLONE CENTER HAS BECOME COLDER AND CYCLONE WILL STAY IN HIGH SST AREA. FI-NUMBER WILL BE 3.5 AFTER 24 HOURS.= ** WTPQ31 RJTD 140600 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING REASONING NO. 2 FOR TS 0611 SONAMU (0611) 1.GENERAL COMMENTS REASONING OF PROGNOSIS THIS TIME IS SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS ONE. POSITION FORECAST IS MAINLY BASED ON NWP AND PERSISTENCY. 2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION NOTHING PARTICULAR TO EXPLAIN. 3.MOTION FORECAST POSITION ACCURACY AT 140600 UTC IS FAIR. TS WILL MOVE AT THE SAME SPEED FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS. TS WILL MOVE EAST-NORTHEAST FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS THEN MOVE GRADUALLY TO NORTHEAST. 4.INTENSITY FORECAST TS WILL KEEP PRESENT INTENSITY FOR NEXT 24 HOURS. FI-NUMBER WILL BE 2.5 AFTER 24 HOURS.= ** WTPH RPLL 140600 *** TTT GALE WARNING 03 AT 00600 14 AUGUST TROPICAL STORM (SONAMU) (0611) WAS ESTIMATED BASED ON SATELLITE AND SURFACE DATA AT ONE IEHGT POINT SIX NORTH ONE THREE POINT THREE EAST MOVING EAST NORTHEAST AT ZERO SIX METERS PER SCOND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN TWO FIVE ZERO KILOMETERS RADIUS FROM CENTER ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE NINE NINE SEVEN HECTO- PASCALS MAXIMUM WINDS ONE EIGHT METERS PER SECOND NEAR CENTER FORE- CAST POSITIONS AT 150600 TWO ONE POINT FIVE NORTH ONE THREE FIVE POINT SIX EAST AND AT 160600 TWO FIVE POINT FIVE NORTH ONE THREE EIGHT POINT NINE EAST ALL SHIPS WITHIN STORM AREA ARE REQUESTED TO SEND THREE-HOURLY WEATHER REPORTS TO WEATHER MANILA PD ** WTPN31 PGTW 140900 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL STORM 11W (WUKONG) WARNING NR 008 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 140600Z --- NEAR 26.6N 137.4E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 290 DEGREES AT 03 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 26.6N 137.4E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 141800Z --- 26.9N 136.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 150600Z --- 27.2N 135.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 151800Z --- 27.9N 134.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 06 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 160600Z --- 28.6N 133.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 170600Z --- 29.4N 132.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 06 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 180600Z --- 31.7N 131.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 190600Z --- 34.0N 129.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: 140900Z POSITION NEAR 26.7N 137.3E. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 11W (WUKONG) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 550 NM SOUTHEAST OF SASEBO, JAPAN HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 03 KTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 140600Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 141500Z, 142100Z, 150300Z AND 150900Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 12W (SONAMU) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.// ** WTJP31 RJTD 140900 *** WARNING 140900. WARNING VALID 150900. STORM WARNING. TROPICAL STORM 0610 WUKONG (0610) 985 HPA AT 26.6N 137.6E SEA SOUTH OF JAPAN ALMOST STATIONARY. POSITION FAIR. MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 210 MILES. FORECAST POSITION FOR 150900UTC AT 28.6N 136.9E WITH 80 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 975 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 140900 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TS 0610 WUKONG (0610) ANALYSIS PSTN 140900UTC 26.6N 137.6E FAIR MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY PRES 985HPA MXWD 045KT 30KT 210NM FORECAST 24HF 150900UTC 28.6N 136.9E 80NM 70% MOVE NW SLOWLY PRES 975HPA MXWD 055KT 45HF 160600UTC 28.7N 135.1E 150NM 70% MOVE W SLOWLY PRES 965HPA MXWD 060KT 69HF 170600UTC 28.6N 133.7E 220NM 70% MOVE W SLOWLY PRES 955HPA MXWD 070KT = ** WTPQ20 RJTD 140900 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TS 0610 WUKONG (0610) ANALYSIS PSTN 140900UTC 26.6N 137.6E FAIR MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY PRES 985HPA MXWD 045KT 30KT 210NM FORECAST 24HF 150900UTC 28.6N 136.9E 80NM 70% MOVE NW SLOWLY PRES 975HPA MXWD 055KT 45HF 160600UTC 28.7N 135.1E 150NM 70% MOVE W SLOWLY PRES 965HPA MXWD 060KT 69HF 170600UTC 28.6N 133.7E 220NM 70% MOVE W SLOWLY PRES 955HPA MXWD 070KT = ** WTPH20 RPMM 140600 *** TTT GALE WARNING 03 AT 0600 14 AUGUST TROPICAL STORM (SONAMU) (0611) WAS ESTIMATED BASED ON SATELLITE AND SURFACE DATA AT ONE EIGHT POINT SIX NORTH ONE THREE ONE POINT THREE EAST MOVING EAST NORTHEAST AT ZERO SIX METERS PER SECOND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN TWO FIVE ZERO KILOMETERS RADIUS FROM CENTER ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE NINE NINE SEVEN HECTOPASCALS MAXIMUM WINDS ONE EIGHT METERS PER SECOND NEAR CENTER FORECAST POSITIONS AT 150600 TWO ONE POINT FIVE NORTH ONE THREE FIVE POINT SIX EAST AND AT 160600 TWO FIVE POINT FIVE NORTH ONE THREE EIGHT POINT NINE EAST ALL SHIPS WITHIN STORM AREA ARE REQUESTED TO SEND THREE HOURLY WEATHER REPORTS TO WEATHER MANILA PD WEATHER MANILA= ** WTPQ21 RJTD 140900 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TS 0611 SONAMU (0611) ANALYSIS PSTN 140900UTC 19.4N 132.0E FAIR MOVE NE 15KT PRES 992HPA MXWD 040KT 30KT 150NM SOUTHEAST 130NM NORTHWEST FORECAST 24HF 150900UTC 22.9N 138.6E 100NM 70% MOVE NE 17KT PRES 992HPA MXWD 040KT 45HF 160600UTC 29.5N 140.5E 160NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =