** WTPQ20 BABJ 140000 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TS WUKONG 0610 (0610) INITIAL TIME 140000 UTC 00HR 26.4N 138.0E 990HPA 23M/S 30KTS 250KM P12HR NNW 15KM/H P+24HR 27.8N 137.3E 985HPA 25M/S P+48HR 28.6N 135.2E 980HPA 30M/S P+72HR 28.6N 132.4E 975HPA 33M/S= ** WTJP21 RJTD 140000 *** WARNING 140000. WARNING VALID 150000. WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS. STORM WARNING. TROPICAL STORM 0610 WUKONG (0610) 985 HPA AT 26.4N 138.0E SEA SOUTH OF JAPAN MOVING NORTHNORTHWEST SLOWLY. POSITION FAIR. MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 210 MILES. FORECAST POSITION FOR 150000UTC AT 27.9N 137.7E WITH 80 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 980 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. FORECAST POSITION FOR 160000UTC AT 28.7N 136.0E WITH 150 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 970 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. FORECAST POSITION FOR 170000UTC AT 28.5N 133.7E WITH 220 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 960 HPA, MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 140000 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TS 0610 WUKONG (0610) ANALYSIS PSTN 140000UTC 26.4N 138.0E FAIR MOVE NNW SLOWLY PRES 985HPA MXWD 045KT 30KT 210NM FORECAST 24HF 150000UTC 27.9N 137.7E 80NM 70% MOVE NNW SLOWLY PRES 980HPA MXWD 050KT 48HF 160000UTC 28.7N 136.0E 150NM 70% MOVE WNW SLOWLY PRES 970HPA MXWD 055KT 72HF 170000UTC 28.5N 133.7E 220NM 70% MOVE W SLOWLY PRES 960HPA MXWD 065KT = ** WTJP22 RJTD 140000 *** WARNING 140000. WARNING VALID 150000. WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS. GALE WARNING. TROPICAL STORM 0611 SONAMU (0611) UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL DEPRESSION 996 HPA AT 18.1N 129.7E SEA EAST OF PHILIPPINES MOVING NORTHNORTHEAST 12 KNOTS. POSITION FAIR. MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 130 MILES. FORECAST POSITION FOR 150000UTC AT 19.9N 134.1E WITH 100 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 994 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. FORECAST POSITION FOR 160000UTC AT 24.1N 139.3E WITH 160 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 994 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. FORECAST POSITION FOR 170000UTC AT 30.7N 141.1E WITH 270 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 994 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ21 RJTD 140000 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TS 0611 SONAMU (0611) UPGRADED FROM TD ANALYSIS PSTN 140000UTC 18.1N 129.7E FAIR MOVE NNE 12KT PRES 996HPA MXWD 035KT 30KT 130NM FORECAST 24HF 150000UTC 19.9N 134.1E 100NM 70% MOVE ENE 13KT PRES 994HPA MXWD 040KT 48HF 160000UTC 24.1N 139.3E 160NM 70% MOVE NE 15KT PRES 994HPA MXWD 040KT 72HF 170000UTC 30.7N 141.1E 270NM 70% MOVE N 16KT PRES 994HPA MXWD 040KT = ** WTPQ30 RJTD 140000 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING REASONING NO. 3 FOR TS 0610 WUKONG (0610) 1.GENERAL COMMENTS REASONING OF PROGNOSIS THIS TIME IS SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS ONE. POSITION FORECAST IS MAINLY BASED ON NWP AND PERSISTENCY. 2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION NOTHING PARTICULAR TO EXPLAIN. 3.MOTION FORECAST POSITION ACCURACY AT 140000 UTC IS FAIR. TS WILL MOVE AT THE SAME SPEED FOR THE NEXT 72 HOURS. TS WILL MOVE NORTH-NORTHWEST FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS THEN MOVE TO WEST-NORTHWEST. 4.INTENSITY FORECAST TS WILL BE GRADED UP TO STS WITHIN 24 HOURS. TS WILL DEVELOP BECAUSE CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURE NEAR CYCLONE CENTER HAS BECOME COLDER AND CYCLONE WILL STAY IN HIGH SST AREA. FI-NUMBER WILL BE 3.5 AFTER 24 HOURS.= ** WTPQ20 BABJ 140000 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TS SONAMU 0611 (0611) INITIAL TIME 140000 UTC 00HR 18.1N 129.9E 995HPA 20M/S 30KTS 150KM P12HR NE 20KM/H P+24HR 21.0N 134.0E 985HPA 25M/S P+48HR 24.0N 137.5E 975HPA 30M/S P+72HR 28.0N 139.0E 975HPA 30M/S= ** WTKO20 RKSL 140000 *** KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 1 NAME TS 0611 SONAMU ANALYSIS POSITION 140000UTC 18.1N 129.7E MOVEMENT NNE 12KT PRES/VMAX 996HPA 35KT FORECAST 24HR POSITION 150000UTC 19.5N 134.0E WITHIN 80NM PRES/VMAX 994HPA 35KT 48HR POSITION 160000UTC 23.5N 138.3E WITHIN 135NM PRES/VMAX 990HPA 41KT 72HR POSITION 170000UTC 29.7N 140.0E WITHIN 215NM PRES/VMAX 985HPA 45KT KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION. ** WTPN32 PGTW 140300 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// REF/A/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/131721Z AUG 06// AMPN/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 12W WARNING NR 002 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 140000Z --- NEAR 18.0N 130.0E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 080 DEGREES AT 14 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT REPEAT POSIT: 18.0N 130.0E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 141200Z --- 18.5N 132.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 065 DEG/ 12 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 150000Z --- 19.5N 135.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 13 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 151200Z --- 21.4N 137.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 020 DEG/ 12 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 160000Z --- 23.7N 137.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 005 DEG/ 11 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 170000Z --- 27.9N 138.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 140300Z POSITION NEAR 18.1N 130.7E. TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 12W LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 500 NM SOUTH- SOUTHEAST OF NAHA, OKINAWA, HAS TRACKED EASTWARD AT 14 KTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 140000Z IS 10 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 140900Z, 141500Z, 142100Z AND 150300Z. REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 11W (WUKONG) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW) FOR SIX- HOURLY UPDATES.// ** WTPQ31 RJTD 140000 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING REASONING NO. 1 FOR TS 0611 SONAMU (0611) 1.GENERAL COMMENTS POSITION FORECAST IS MAINLY BASED ON NWP AND PERSISTENCY. 2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION NOTHING PARTICULAR TO EXPLAIN. 3.MOTION FORECAST POSITION ACCURACY AT 140000 UTC IS FAIR. TS WILL MOVE AT THE SAME SPEED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS THEN ACCELERATE. TS WILL MOVE EAST-NORTHEAST FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS THEN MOVE GRADUALLY TO NORTHEAST. 4.INTENSITY FORECAST TS WILL KEEP PRESENT INTENSITY FOR NEXT 24 HOURS. FI-NUMBER WILL BE 2.5 AFTER 24 HOURS.= ** WTPN31 PGTW 140300 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL STORM 11W (WUKONG) WARNING NR 007 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 140000Z --- NEAR 26.5N 137.6E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 320 DEGREES AT 04 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 26.5N 137.6E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 141200Z --- 27.0N 137.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 150000Z --- 27.6N 136.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 151200Z --- 28.1N 135.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 06 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 160000Z --- 28.4N 134.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 170000Z --- 29.3N 132.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 06 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 180000Z --- 31.4N 130.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 190000Z --- 34.1N 130.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT --- REMARKS: 140300Z POSITION NEAR 26.6N 137.5E. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 11W (WUKONG) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 565 NM SOUTHEAST OF SASEBO, JAPAN HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 04 KTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 140000Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 140900Z, 141500Z, 142100Z AND 150300Z. REFER TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION 12W (NONAME) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.// ** WTPH20 RPMM 140000 *** T T T GALE WARNING 02 AT 0000 14 AUGUST TROPICAL STORM UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL DEPRESSION WAS ESTIMATED BASED ON SATELLITE ANS SURFACE DATA AT ONE SEVEN POINT NINE NORTH ONE THREE ZERO POINT ZERO EAST MOVING EAST NORTH EAST AT ZERO FOUR METERS PER SECOND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH WITHIN TWO FIVE ZERO KILOMETERS RADIUS FROM CENTER ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE NINE NINE SEVEN HECTOPASCALS MAIMUM WINDS ONE EIGHT METERS PER SECOND NEAR CENTER FRORECAST POSITION AT 150000 ONE NINE POINT SEVEN NORTH ONE THREE THREE POINT FIVE EAST AND AT 160000 TWO TWO POINT ZERO NORTH ONE THREE SIX POINT SIX EAST AND AT 170000 TWO FIVE POINT FIVE NORTH ONE THREE EIGHT POINT FOUR EAST ALL SHIPS WITHIN STORM AREA ARE REQUESTED TO SEND THREE HOURLY WEATHER REPORTS TO WEATHER MANILA=PD ** WTPQ20 RJTD 140300 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TS 0610 WUKONG (0610) ANALYSIS PSTN 140300UTC 26.6N 137.7E FAIR MOVE NW 06KT PRES 985HPA MXWD 045KT 30KT 210NM FORECAST 24HF 150300UTC 28.1N 137.6E 80NM 70% MOVE NNW SLOWLY PRES 980HPA MXWD 050KT 45HF 160000UTC 28.7N 136.0E 150NM 70% MOVE WNW SLOWLY PRES 970HPA MXWD 055KT 69HF 170000UTC 28.5N 133.7E 220NM 70% MOVE W SLOWLY PRES 960HPA MXWD 065KT = ** WTJP31 RJTD 140300 *** WARNING 140300. WARNING VALID 150300. STORM WARNING. TROPICAL STORM 0610 WUKONG (0610) 985 HPA AT 26.6N 137.7E SEA SOUTH OF JAPAN MOVING NORTHWEST 06 KNOTS. POSITION FAIR. MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 210 MILES. FORECAST POSITION FOR 150300UTC AT 28.1N 137.6E WITH 80 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 980 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ21 RJTD 140300 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TS 0611 SONAMU (0611) ANALYSIS PSTN 140300UTC 18.3N 130.8E FAIR MOVE ENE 17KT PRES 996HPA MXWD 035KT 30KT 130NM FORECAST 24HF 150300UTC 20.4N 135.4E 100NM 70% MOVE ENE 12KT PRES 994HPA MXWD 040KT 45HF 160000UTC 24.1N 139.3E 160NM 70% MOVE NE 15KT PRES 994HPA MXWD 040KT 69HF 170000UTC 30.7N 141.1E 270NM 70% MOVE N 16KT PRES 994HPA MXWD 040KT = ** WTPH RPLL 140000 *** TTT WARNING 02 AT 0000 14 AUGUST TROPICAL DEPRESSION STORM UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL DEPRESSION WAS ESTIMATED BASED ON SATELLITE AND SURFACE DATA AT ONE SEVEN POINT NINE NORTH ONE THREE ZERO POINT ZERO EAST MOVING EAST NORTHEAST AT ZERO FOUR METERS PER SECOND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN TWO FIVE ZERO KILOMETERS RADUIS FROM CENTER ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE NINE NINE SEVEN HECTOPASCALS MAXIMUM WINDS OF ONE EIGHT METERS PER SECOND NEAR CENTER FORECAST POSITIONS AT 150000 ONE NINE POINT SEVEN NORTH ONE THREE THREE POINT FIVE EAST AND AND AT 160000 TWO TWO POINT ZERO NORTH ONE THREE SIX POINT SIX EAST AND AT 170000 TWO FIVE POINT FIVE NORTH ONE THREE EIGHT POINT FOUR EAST ALL ALL SHIPS WITHIN STORM AREA ARE REQUESTED TO SEND THREE HOURLY WEATHER REPORTS TO WEATHER MANILA PD. WEATHER MANILA= ** WTNT80 EGRR 140525 *** MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 14.08.2006 NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 24 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 24 : 28.6N 77.9W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 15.08.2006 28.6N 77.9W WEAK 12UTC 15.08.2006 28.8N 77.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 16.08.2006 29.7N 77.9W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 16.08.2006 30.8N 79.0W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 17.08.2006 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 140525