** WTPQ20 BABJ 131200 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TS WUKONG 0610 (0610) INITIAL TIME 131200 UTC 00HR 25.8N 138.1E 995HPA 18M/S 30KTS 200KM P12HR NW 15KM/H P+24HR 27.2N 136.6E 990HPA 23M/S P+48HR 28.0N 134.5E 985HPA 25M/S P+72HR 28.5N 132.5E 980HPA 30M/S= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 131200 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TS 0610 WUKONG (0610) ANALYSIS PSTN 131200UTC 26.1N 138.4E POOR MOVE N 06KT PRES 990HPA MXWD 040KT 30KT 200NM FORECAST 24HF 141200UTC 28.9N 137.5E 80NM 70% MOVE NNW 07KT PRES 985HPA MXWD 045KT 48HF 151200UTC 29.8N 135.8E 150NM 70% MOVE WNW SLOWLY PRES 980HPA MXWD 050KT 72HF 161200UTC 30.0N 133.4E 220NM 70% MOVE W SLOWLY PRES 975HPA MXWD 055KT = ** WTJP21 RJTD 131200 *** WARNING 131200. WARNING VALID 141200. WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS. GALE WARNING. TROPICAL STORM 0610 WUKONG (0610) 990 HPA AT 26.1N 138.4E SEA SOUTH OF JAPAN MOVING NORTH 06 KNOTS. POSITION POOR. MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 200 MILES. FORECAST POSITION FOR 141200UTC AT 28.9N 137.5E WITH 80 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 985 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. FORECAST POSITION FOR 151200UTC AT 29.8N 135.8E WITH 150 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 980 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION FOR 161200UTC AT 30.0N 133.4E WITH 220 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 975 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 131500 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TS 0610 WUKONG (0610) ANALYSIS PSTN 131500UTC 26.1N 138.1E POOR MOVE NW SLOWLY PRES 990HPA MXWD 040KT 30KT 200NM FORECAST 24HF 141500UTC 29.0N 137.4E 80NM 70% MOVE NNW 06KT PRES 985HPA MXWD 045KT 45HF 151200UTC 29.8N 135.8E 150NM 70% MOVE WNW SLOWLY PRES 980HPA MXWD 050KT 69HF 161200UTC 30.0N 133.4E 220NM 70% MOVE W SLOWLY PRES 975HPA MXWD 055KT = ** WTNT80 EGRR 131729 *** MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 13.08.2006 TROPICAL STORM DEVELOPED IN THE MODEL ANALYSIS AT POSITION : 9.2N 165.2W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 13.08.2006 9.2N 165.2W WEAK 00UTC 14.08.2006 9.6N 166.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 14.08.2006 10.3N 167.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 15.08.2006 10.4N 169.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 15.08.2006 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 131729 ** WTPN21 PGTW 131730 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT 131721ZAUG06// RMKS/ 1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN A 220 NM RADIUS OF 17.1N 127.7E WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CY- CLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 131530Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 17.3N 128.1E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING EASTWARD AT 04 KNOTS. 2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 16.0N 125.0E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 17.3N 126.1E, APPROXIMATELY 430 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES. RECENT ANIMATED INFRARED IMAGERY REVEALS ENHANCED AND CONSOLIDATING CONVECTION NEAR AN ELONGATED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES FAVORABLE DIVERGENCE ALOFT AND LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS GOOD. 3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 141730Z.//