** WTPQ20 RJTD 130000 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TD ANALYSIS PSTN 130000UTC 25.0N 139.5E POOR MOVE NNW 15KT PRES 994HPA MXWD 030KT FORECAST 24HF 140000UTC 26.2N 139.1E 150NM 70% MOVE NNW SLOWLY PRES 992HPA MXWD 040KT = ** WTPQ30 RJTD 130000 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING REASONING NO. 1 FOR TD LOCATED AT 25.0N 139.5E 1.GENERAL COMMENTS POSITION FORECAST IS MAINLY BASED ON NWP AND PERSISTENCY. 2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION NOTHING PARTICULAR TO EXPLAIN. 3.MOTION FORECAST POSITION ACCURACY AT 130000 UTC IS POOR. TD WILL DECELERATE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS DECELERATE. TD WILL MOVE NORTH-NORTHWEST FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. 4.INTENSITY FORECAST TD WILL BE GRADED UP TO TS WITHIN 12 HOURS. TD WILL DEVELOP BECAUSE CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURE NEAR CYCLONE CENTER HAS BECOME COLDER AND CYCLONE WILL STAY IN HIGH SST AREA. FI-NUMBER WILL BE 2.5 AFTER 24 HOURS.= ** WTPN31 PGTW 130300 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL STORM 11W WARNING NR 003 UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL DEPRESSION 11W 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 130000Z --- NEAR 25.3N 139.1E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 335 DEGREES AT 15 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT REPEAT POSIT: 25.3N 139.1E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 131200Z --- 28.0N 137.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 15 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 140000Z --- 30.4N 135.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 13 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 141200Z --- 32.6N 133.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 08 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 150000Z --- 34.1N 133.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 160000Z --- 37.3N 133.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 030 DEG/ 10 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 170000Z --- 40.9N 135.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 050 DEG/ 16 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 180000Z --- 45.1N 142.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL --- REMARKS: 130300Z POSITION NEAR 26.0N 138.7E. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 11W LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 130 NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF IWO-JIMA, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 15 KTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 130000Z IS 11 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 130900Z, 131500Z, 132100Z AND 140300Z.// ** WTPQ20 RJTD 130300 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TD ANALYSIS PSTN 130300UTC 25.4N 138.9E POOR MOVE NNW 15KT PRES 994HPA MXWD 030KT FORECAST 24HF 140300UTC 28.0N 138.1E 150NM 70% MOVE NNW 06KT PRES 985HPA MXWD 045KT = ** WTNT80 EGRR 130515 *** MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 13.08.2006 NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 24 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 24 : 29.5N 80.9W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 14.08.2006 29.5N 80.9W WEAK 12UTC 14.08.2006 29.4N 74.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 15.08.2006 29.0N 71.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 15.08.2006 29.5N 73.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 16.08.2006 30.3N 73.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 16.08.2006 33.6N 75.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 17.08.2006 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 72 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 72 : 11.8N 114.6W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 16.08.2006 11.8N 114.6W WEAK 12UTC 16.08.2006 12.5N 117.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 17.08.2006 11.1N 122.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 17.08.2006 10.7N 124.8W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 18.08.2006 10.7N 128.9W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 18.08.2006 11.1N 131.2W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 19.08.2006 10.7N 138.2W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 130515