** WTSR20 WSSS 111800 *** NO STORM WARNING= ** WTPN21 PGTW 120230 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT 120221ZAUG2006// RMKS/ 1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN 180 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 18.1N 142.9E TO 24.9N 136.8E WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 112330Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 18.4N 142.5E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS. 2. REMARKS: AN AREA OF CONVECTION NEAR 18.4N 142.5E, APPROXIMATELY 385 NM SOUTH OF GUAM, HAS PERSISTED OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. RECENT ANIMATED MULTIPSPECTRAL IMAGERY REVEALS A CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) AND A 120000Z SYNOPTIC SHIP OBSERVATION REPORT INDI- CATES WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH LLCC TO BE AT LEAST 20 KNOTS. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES FAVORABLE OUTFLOW INTO A TROPICAL UPPER TROPO- SPHERIC TROUGH (TUTT) CELL TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE LLCC, AS WELL AS LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE 1002 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS GOOD. 3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 130230Z.// ** WTNT80 EGRR 120503 *** MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 12.08.2006 NO TROPICAL STORMS ARE ANALYSED OR FORECAST TO DEVELOP IN THE AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 3 DAYS THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 120503