** WTPQ20 BABJ 101200 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST STY SAOMAI 0608 (0608) INITIAL TIME 101200 UTC 00HR 27.2N 120.0E 940HPA 50M/S 30KTS 350KM 50KTS 250KM P12HR W 20KM/H P+24HR 29.2N 120.0E 990HPA 23M/S P+48HR 29.6N 110.0E 1000HPA 15M/S= ** WTPQ20 BABJ 101200 CCA *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST STY SAOMAI 0608 (0608) INITIAL TIME 101200 UTC 00HR 27.2N 120.0E 940HPA 50M/S 30KTS 350KM 50KTS 250KM P12HR W 20KM/H P+24HR 29.2N 115.0E 990HPA 23M/S P+48HR 29.6N 110.0E 1000HPA 15M/S= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 101200 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TY 0608 SAOMAI (0608) ANALYSIS PSTN 101200UTC 27.2N 120.0E GOOD MOVE W 10KT PRES 955HPA MXWD 075KT 50KT 50NM 30KT 130NM FORECAST 24HF 111200UTC 29.1N 115.4E 80NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION = ** WTJP21 RJTD 101200 *** WARNING 101200. WARNING VALID 111200. WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS. TYPHOON WARNING. TYPHOON 0608 SAOMAI (0608) 955 HPA AT 27.2N 120.0E CENTRAL CHINA MOVING WEST 10 KNOTS. POSITION GOOD. MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 50 MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 130 MILES. FORECAST POSITION FOR 110000UTC AT 28.4N 117.7E WITH 60 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 996 HPA. BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION. FORECAST POSITION FOR 111200UTC AT 29.1N 115.4E WITH 80 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 998 HPA. BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ20 BABJ 101230 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST STY SAOMAI 0608 (0608) INITIAL TIME 101230 UTC 00HR 27.2N 119.9E 950HPA 45M/S 30KTS 350KM 50KTS 200KM P12HR W 20KM/H= ** WTJP22 RJTD 101200 *** WARNING 101200. WARNING VALID 111200. WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS. GALE WARNING. TROPICAL STORM 0607 MARIA (0607) 1000 HPA AT 37.0N 145.8E SEA EAST OF JAPAN MOVING EAST 11 KNOTS. POSITION FAIR. MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 140 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 80 MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION FOR 110000UTC AT 37.6N 147.1E WITH 60 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 1000 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS. BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL LOW. FORECAST POSITION FOR 111200UTC AT 38.7N 148.2E WITH 100 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 1000 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS. BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL LOW. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ21 RJTD 101200 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TS 0607 MARIA (0607) ANALYSIS PSTN 101200UTC 37.0N 145.8E FAIR MOVE E 11KT PRES 1000HPA MXWD 035KT 30KT 140NM EAST 80NM WEST FORECAST 24HF 111200UTC 38.7N 148.2E 100NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW = ** WTPQ20 BABJ 101300 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TY SAOMAI 0608 (0608) INITIAL TIME 101300 UTC 00HR 27.2N 119.7E 960HPA 40M/S 30KTS 350KM 50KTS 180KM P12HR W 20KM/H= ** WTPQ20 BABJ 101330 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TY SAOMAI 0608 (0608) INITIAL TIME 101330 UTC 00HR 27.2N 119.5E 970HPA 35M/S 30KTS 350KM 50KTS 150KM P12HR W 25KM/H= ** WTSS20 VHHH 101345 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT 101200 UTC, TROPICAL DEPRESSION BOPHA (0609) WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 996 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES OF TWO ONE POINT SIX DEGREES NORTH (21.6 N) ONE ONE FIVE POINT EIGHT DEGREES EAST (115.8 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE WEST OR WEST-SOUTHWEST AT ABOUT 9 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 60 NAUTICAL MILES. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 111200 UTC DISSIPATED OVER SEA. ** WTSS20 VHHH 101345 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT 101200 UTC, TYPHOON SAOMAI (0608) WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 940 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 30 NAUTICAL MILES OF TWO SEVEN POINT ONE DEGREES NORTH (27.1 N) ONE TWO ZERO POINT ZERO DEGREES EAST (120.0 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE WEST-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 14 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 90 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 120 NAUTICAL MILES OVER EASTERN SEMICIRCLE, 90 NAUTICAL MILES ELSEWHERE. RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 60 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 63 KNOT WINDS 30 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 150 NAUTICAL MILES OVER EASTERN SEMICIRCLE, 120 NAUTICAL MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 111200 UTC TWO NINE POINT SEVEN DEGREES NORTH (29.7 N) ONE ONE FOUR POINT NINE DEGREES EAST (114.9 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 30 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 121200 UTC DISSIPATED OVER LAND. ** WTSS20 VHHH 101345 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT 101200 UTC, TYPHOON SAOMAI (0608) WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 940 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 30 NAUTICAL MILES OF TWO SEVEN POINT ONE DEGREES NORTH (27.1 N) ONE TWO ZERO POINT ZERO DEGREES EAST (120.0 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE WEST-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 14 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 90 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 120 NAUTICAL MILES OVER EASTERN SEMICIRCLE, 90 NAUTICAL MILES ELSEWHERE. RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 60 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 63 KNOT WINDS 30 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 150 NAUTICAL MILES OVER EASTERN SEMICIRCLE, 120 NAUTICAL MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 111200 UTC TWO NINE POINT SEVEN DEGREES NORTH (29.7 N) ONE ONE FOUR POINT NINE DEGREES EAST (114.9 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 30 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 121200 UTC DISSIPATED OVER LAND. ** WTSS20 VHHH 101345 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT 101200 UTC, TROPICAL DEPRESSION BOPHA (0609) WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 996 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES OF TWO ONE POINT SIX DEGREES NORTH (21.6 N) ONE ONE FIVE POINT EIGHT DEGREES EAST (115.8 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE WEST OR WEST-SOUTHWEST AT ABOUT 9 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 60 NAUTICAL MILES. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 111200 UTC DISSIPATED OVER SEA. ** WTPN33 PGTW 101500 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// REF/A/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN/PEARL HARBOR HI/091351ZAUG2006// AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 10W (BOPHA) WARNING NR 018 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 101200Z --- NEAR 21.6N 115.9E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 05 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF SATELLITE AND SYNOPTIC DATA PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER REPEAT POSIT: 21.6N 115.9E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 110000Z --- 21.5N 114.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 111200Z --- 21.3N 112.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 015 KT, GUSTS 025 KT DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: 101500Z POSITION NEAR 21.6N 115.6E. TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 10W (BOPHA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 105 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF HONG KONG, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. A 101031Z SSMI PASS DEPICTED AN ELONGATED, WEAK LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH NO ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION. SYNOPTIC OBSERVATIONS ABOUT 60 NM SOUTH OF THE LLCC INDICATED 15-KNOT WINDS AND SLP OF 1002 MB. A 101029Z QUIKSCAT PASS SHOWED 15-20 KNOT WINDS AROUND THE WEAKENING CENTER. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS REFLECTS AN INCREASINGLY UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT, WITH MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND INCREASING MID-LEVEL STABILITY, WHICH SHOULD INHIBIT REGENERATION OF DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE LLCC. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER (NAVPACMETOCCEN). THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 101200Z IS 10 FEET. REFER TO TYPHOON 08W (SAOMAI) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.// ** WTPQ20 BABJ 101400 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TY SAOMAI 0608 (0608) INITIAL TIME 101400 UTC 00HR 27.2N 119.4E 970HPA 35M/S 30KTS 350KM 50KTS 150KM P12HR W 20KM/H= ** WTPN31 PGTW 101500 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// REF/A/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN/PEARL HARBOR HI/101353ZAUG2006// AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.// RMKS/ 1. TYPHOON 08W (SAOMAI) WARNING NR 024 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 101200Z --- NEAR 27.2N 120.1E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 280 DEGREES AT 10 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER REPEAT POSIT: 27.2N 120.1E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 110000Z --- 27.1N 118.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 111200Z --- 26.9N 116.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 101500Z POSITION NEAR 27.2N 119.7E. TYPHOON (TY) 08W (SAOMAI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 150 NM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF TAIPEI HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. A 100923Z AMSU PASS DEPICTED LANDFALL NEAR FU'AN, CHINA. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS BUILDING ANTICYCLONIC FLOW TO THE NORTHWEST, WHICH IS BEGINNING TO STEER THE SYSTEM MORE WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD OVER THE PAST 03 HOURS. TY 08W IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TRACKING OVER LAND THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD, AND TO RAPIDLY DISSIPATE. AT WARNING TIME, THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE OF WINDS EXTENDED OVER WATER. WIND RADII WERE BASED ON THE AFORE- MENTIONED AMSU PASS AND A 101027Z QUIKSCAT PASS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 101200Z IS 28 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 102100Z, 110300Z AND 110900Z. REFER TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION 10W (BOPHA) WARNINGS (WTPN33 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.// ** WTPQ20 BABJ 101500 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST STS SAOMAI 0608 (0608) INITIAL TIME 101500 UTC 00HR 27.3N 119.3E 980HPA 30M/S 30KTS 300KM 50KTS 100KM P12HR W 20KM/H= ** WTJP31 RJTD 101500 *** WARNING 101500. WARNING VALID 111500. TYPHOON WARNING. TYPHOON 0608 SAOMAI (0608) 970 HPA AT 27.1N 119.6E CENTRAL CHINA MOVING WEST 08 KNOTS. POSITION FAIR. MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 40 MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 120 MILES SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 100 MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION FOR 110300UTC AT 28.6N 117.0E WITH 60 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 996 HPA. BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION. FORECAST POSITION FOR 111500UTC AT 29.3N 114.9E WITH 80 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 998 HPA. BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 101500 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TY 0608 SAOMAI (0608) ANALYSIS PSTN 101500UTC 27.1N 119.6E FAIR MOVE W 08KT PRES 970HPA MXWD 065KT 50KT 40NM 30KT 120NM SOUTHEAST 100NM NORTHWEST FORECAST 24HF 111500UTC 29.3N 114.9E 80NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION = ** WTPQ21 RJTD 101500 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TS 0607 MARIA (0607) ANALYSIS PSTN 101500UTC 37.2N 146.6E FAIR MOVE E 12KT PRES 1000HPA MXWD 035KT 30KT 180NM EAST 80NM WEST FORECAST 24HF 111500UTC 39.0N 148.5E 100NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW = ** WTPQ20 BABJ 101600 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST STS SAOMAI 0608 (0608) INITIAL TIME 101600 UTC 00HR 27.5N 119.1E 980HPA 30M/S 30KTS 300KM 50KTS 80KM P12HR WNW 20KM/H= ** WTNT80 EGRR 101636 *** MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 10.08.2006 NO TROPICAL STORMS ARE ANALYSED OR FORECAST TO DEVELOP IN THE AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 3 DAYS THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 101636 ** WTSS20 VHHH 101645 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT 101500 UTC, TYPHOON SAOMAI (0608) WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 960 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 30 NAUTICAL MILES OF TWO SEVEN POINT ONE DEGREES NORTH (27.1 N) ONE ONE NINE POINT FOUR DEGREES EAST (119.4 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE WEST-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 14 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 75 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 120 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 60 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 63 KNOT WINDS 30 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 150 NAUTICAL MILES. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 111500 UTC TWO NINE POINT NINE DEGREES NORTH (29.9 N) ONE ONE FOUR POINT FOUR DEGREES EAST (114.4 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 30 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 121500 UTC DISSIPATED OVER LAND. ** WTSS20 VHHH 101645 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT 101500 UTC, TYPHOON SAOMAI (0608) WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 960 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 30 NAUTICAL MILES OF TWO SEVEN POINT ONE DEGREES NORTH (27.1 N) ONE ONE NINE POINT FOUR DEGREES EAST (119.4 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE WEST-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 14 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 75 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 120 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 60 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 63 KNOT WINDS 30 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 150 NAUTICAL MILES. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 111500 UTC TWO NINE POINT NINE DEGREES NORTH (29.9 N) ONE ONE FOUR POINT FOUR DEGREES EAST (114.4 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 30 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 121500 UTC DISSIPATED OVER LAND. ** WTSS20 VHHH 101645 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING TROPICAL DEPRESSION BOPHA (0609) HAS WEAKENED INTO A AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE. NO FURTHER WARNINGS ON THIS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BE ISSUED BY THE HONG KONG OBSERVATORY UNLESS REGENERATION TAKES PLACE. ** WTPQ20 BABJ 101700 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST STS SAOMAI 0608 (0608) INITIAL TIME 101700 UTC 00HR 27.7N 118.9E 985HPA 28M/S 30KTS 200KM 50KTS 50KM P12HR WNW 20KM/H=