** WTIN20 DEMS 070622 *** TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK DERMS-RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONES NEW DELHI 07-08-2006 TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NORTH INDIAN OCEAN (THE BAY OF BENGAL AND ARABIAN SEA) VALID FOR NEXT 24 HOURS ISSUED AT 0600 UTC(.) CONVECTIVE CLOUDS ARE SEEN OVER NORTHEAST CENTRAL ARABIAN SEA, NORTH ANDAMAN SEA AND NORTHEAST BAY OF BENGAL. RIDGE LINE 200 HPA RUNS ALONG 33 DEG NORTH OVER THE INDIAN REGION(.) ** WTIN20 DEMS 070622 *** TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK DERMS-RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONES NEW DELHI 07-08-2006 TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NORTH INDIAN OCEAN (THE BAY OF BENGAL AND ARABIAN SEA) VALID FOR NEXT 24 HOURS ISSUED AT 0600 UTC(.) CONVECTIVE CLOUDS ARE SEEN OVER NORTHEAST CENTRAL ARABIAN SEA, NORTH ANDAMAN SEA AND NORTHEAST BAY OF BENGAL. RIDGE LINE 200 HPAHRUNS ALONG 33 DEG NORTH OVER THE INDIAN REGION(.) ** WTPQ20 BABJ 070600 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TY MARIA 0607 (0607) INITIAL TIME 070600 UTC 00HR 30.5N 138.3E 975HPA 33M/S 30KTS 300KM 50KTS 120KM P12HR NW 20KM/H P+24HR 32.3N 135.3E 975HPA 33M/S P+48HR 34.8N 132.9E 985HPA 25M/S P+72HR 38.3N 130.9E 990HPA 23M/S= ** WTPQ20 BABJ 070600 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TY SAOMAI 0608 (0608) INITIAL TIME 070600 UTC 00HR 18.8N 138.2E 975HPA 33M/S 30KTS 350KM 50KTS 100KM P12HR NW 20KM/H P+24HR 21.7N 134.9E 970HPA 35M/S P+48HR 24.1N 130.2E 970HPA 35M/S P+72HR 26.3N 124.0E 970HPA 35M/S= ** WTJP22 RJTD 070600 *** WARNING 070600. WARNING VALID 080600. WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS. STORM WARNING. SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 0607 MARIA (0607) 975 HPA AT 30.6N 138.1E SEA SOUTH OF JAPAN MOVING NORTHNORTHWEST 11 KNOTS. POSITION GOOD. MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 50 MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 140 MILES. FORECAST POSITION FOR 071800UTC AT 32.2N 136.3E WITH 60 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 975 HPA, MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. FORECAST POSITION FOR 080600UTC AT 33.4N 135.2E WITH 80 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 980 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. FORECAST POSITION FOR 090600UTC AT 35.8N 135.4E WITH 160 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 990 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION FOR 100600UTC AT 37.6N 136.4E WITH 290 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 998 HPA. BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ21 RJTD 070600 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME STS 0607 MARIA (0607) ANALYSIS PSTN 070600UTC 30.6N 138.1E GOOD MOVE NNW 11KT PRES 975HPA MXWD 060KT 50KT 50NM 30KT 140NM FORECAST 24HF 080600UTC 33.4N 135.2E 80NM 70% MOVE NNW 07KT PRES 980HPA MXWD 055KT 48HF 090600UTC 35.8N 135.4E 160NM 70% MOVE N SLOWLY PRES 990HPA MXWD 040KT 72HF 100600UTC 37.6N 136.4E 290NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION = ** WTPQ20 BABJ 070600 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST STS BOPHA 0609 (0609) INITIAL TIME 070600 UTC 00HR 22.7N 127.7E 985HPA 25M/S 30KTS 250KM 50KTS 50KM P12HR W 20KM/H P+24HR 23.0N 125.2E 985HPA 25M/S P+48HR 22.0N 122.0E 990HPA 23M/S P+72HR 20.7N 118.5E 995HPA 20M/S= ** WTJP23 RJTD 070600 *** WARNING 070600. WARNING VALID 080600. WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS. STORM WARNING. SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 0609 BOPHA (0609) 985 HPA AT 22.9N 127.6E SEA SOUTH OF OKINAWA MOVING WEST 09 KNOTS. POSITION FAIR. MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 120 MILES. FORECAST POSITION FOR 071800UTC AT 23.1N 126.0E WITH 60 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 980 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. FORECAST POSITION FOR 080600UTC AT 23.1N 124.6E WITH 80 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 975 HPA, MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. FORECAST POSITION FOR 090600UTC AT 22.6N 121.9E WITH 150 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 970 HPA, MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. FORECAST POSITION FOR 100600UTC AT 21.8N 119.3E WITH 220 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 975 HPA, MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ22 RJTD 070600 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME STS 0609 BOPHA (0609) ANALYSIS PSTN 070600UTC 22.9N 127.6E FAIR MOVE W 09KT PRES 985HPA MXWD 050KT 30KT 120NM FORECAST 24HF 080600UTC 23.1N 124.6E 80NM 70% MOVE W 06KT PRES 975HPA MXWD 060KT 48HF 090600UTC 22.6N 121.9E 150NM 70% MOVE WSW 06KT PRES 970HPA MXWD 065KT 72HF 100600UTC 21.8N 119.3E 220NM 70% MOVE WSW 06KT PRES 975HPA MXWD 060KT = ** WTPQ20 RJTD 070600 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TY 0608 SAOMAI (0608) UPGRADED FROM STS ANALYSIS PSTN 070600UTC 18.8N 138.2E FAIR MOVE WNW 14KT PRES 970HPA MXWD 065KT 50KT 50NM 30KT 200NM FORECAST 24HF 080600UTC 21.4N 133.9E 80NM 70% MOVE WNW 12KT PRES 960HPA MXWD 070KT 48HF 090600UTC 24.1N 129.7E 150NM 70% MOVE WNW 11KT PRES 955HPA MXWD 075KT 72HF 100600UTC 26.8N 126.5E 220NM 70% MOVE NW 09KT PRES 955HPA MXWD 075KT = ** WTJP21 RJTD 070600 *** WARNING 070600. WARNING VALID 080600. WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS. TYPHOON WARNING. TYPHOON 0608 SAOMAI (0608) UPGRADED FROM SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 970 HPA AT 18.8N 138.2E SEA EAST OF PHILIPPINES MOVING WESTNORTHWEST 14 KNOTS. POSITION FAIR. MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 50 MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 200 MILES. FORECAST POSITION FOR 080600UTC AT 21.4N 133.9E WITH 80 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 960 HPA, MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. FORECAST POSITION FOR 090600UTC AT 24.1N 129.7E WITH 150 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 955 HPA, MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. FORECAST POSITION FOR 100600UTC AT 26.8N 126.5E WITH 220 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 955 HPA, MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTKO20 RKSL 070600 *** KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 5 NAME STS 0607 MARIA ANALYSIS POSITION 070600UTC 30.6N 138.1E MOVEMENT NNW 11KT PRES/VMAX 975HPA 56KT FORECAST 24HR POSITION 080600UTC 33.7N 134.6E WITHIN 80NM PRES/VMAX 980HPA 52KT 48HR POSITION 090600UTC 36.1N 133.3E WITHIN 135NM PRES/VMAX 990HPA 45KT 72HR POSITION 100600UTC 38.6N 133.2E WITHIN 0NM PRES 996HPA KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION. ** WTKO20 RKSL 070600 *** KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 5 NAME TY 0608 SAOMAI ANALYSIS POSITION 070600UTC 18.8N 138.2E MOVEMENT WNW 14KT PRES/VMAX 970HPA 60KT FORECAST 24HR POSITION 080600UTC 21.7N 134.2E WITHIN 80NM PRES/VMAX 960HPA 68KT 48HR POSITION 090600UTC 24.7N 130.4E WITHIN 135NM PRES/VMAX 955HPA 72KT 72HR POSITION 100600UTC 27.7N 126.2E WITHIN 215NM PRES/VMAX 955HPA 72KT KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION. ** WTPN32 PGTW 070900 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// REF/A/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/070751ZAUG2006// REF/B/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/070753ZAUG2006// NARR/REFS A AND B ARE TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS.// RMKS 1. TROPICAL STORM 09W (MARIA) WARNING NR 007 03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 070600Z --- NEAR 30.4N 137.9E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 320 DEGREES AT 11 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 30.4N 137.9E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 071800Z --- 31.8N 136.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 080600Z --- 33.0N 135.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 081800Z --- 34.4N 135.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 010 DEG/ 09 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 090600Z --- 36.1N 135.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 030 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 100600Z --- 38.5N 137.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: 070900Z POSITION NEAR 30.7N 137.6E. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 09W (MARIA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 325 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF TOKYO, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 070600Z IS 22 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 071500Z, 072100Z, 080300Z AND 080900Z. REFER TO TYPHOON 08W (SAOMAI) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES. REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 10W (BOPHA) WARNINGS (WTPN33 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.// ** WTPQ31 RJTD 070600 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING REASONING NO. 6 FOR STS 0607 MARIA (0607) 1.GENERAL COMMENTS REASONING OF PROGNOSIS THIS TIME IS SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS ONE. POSITION FORECAST IS MAINLY BASED ON NWP AND PERSISTENCY. 2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION NOTHING PARTICULAR TO EXPLAIN. 3.MOTION FORECAST POSITION ACCURACY AT 070600 UTC IS GOOD. STS WILL MOVE AT THE SAME SPEED FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS THEN DECELERATE. STS WILL MOVE NORTHWEST FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS THEN MOVE GRADUALLY TO NORTH-NORTHEAST. 4.INTENSITY FORECAST STS WILL KEEP PRESENT INTENSITY FOR NEXT 24 HOURS. FI-NUMBER WILL BE 4.0 AFTER 24 HOURS.= ** WTPQ30 RJTD 070600 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING REASONING NO. 6 FOR STS 0608 SAOMAI (0608) 1.GENERAL COMMENTS REASONING OF PROGNOSIS THIS TIME IS SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS ONE. POSITION FORECAST IS MAINLY BASED ON NWP AND PERSISTENCY. 2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION NOTHING PARTICULAR TO EXPLAIN. 3.MOTION FORECAST POSITION ACCURACY AT 070600 UTC IS FAIR. STS WILL MOVE AT THE SAME SPEED FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS. STS WILL MOVE NORTHWEST FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS. 4.INTENSITY FORECAST STS WILL BE GRADED UP TO TY WITHIN 24 HOURS. STS WILL DEVELOP BECAUSE CYCLONE WILL STAY IN HIGH SST AREA. FI-NUMBER WILL BE 5.0 AFTER 24 HOURS.= ** WTPQ32 RJTD 070600 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING REASONING NO. 4 FOR STS 0609 BOPHA (0609) 1.GENERAL COMMENTS REASONING OF PROGNOSIS THIS TIME IS SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS ONE. POSITION FORECAST IS MAINLY BASED ON NWP AND PERSISTENCY. 2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION NOTHING PARTICULAR TO EXPLAIN. 3.MOTION FORECAST POSITION ACCURACY AT 070600 UTC IS FAIR. STS WILL MOVE AT THE SAME SPEED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS DECELERATE. STS WILL MOVE WEST FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. 4.INTENSITY FORECAST STS WILL KEEP PRESENT INTENSITY FOR NEXT 24 HOURS. FI-NUMBER WILL BE 4.0 AFTER 24 HOURS.= ** WTPN31 PGTW 070900 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// REF/A/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN/PEARL HARBOR HI/070752ZAUG2006// REF/B/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN/PEARL HARBOR HI/070753ZAUG2006// NARR/REFS A AND B ARE TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS.// RMKS/ 1. TYPHOON 08W (SAOMAI) WARNING NR 011 03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 070600Z --- NEAR 18.8N 138.1E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 310 DEGREES AT 15 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 18.8N 138.1E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 071800Z --- 20.4N 135.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 14 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 080600Z --- 22.1N 133.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 15 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 081800Z --- 23.6N 130.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 15 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 090600Z --- 24.8N 127.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 12 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 100600Z --- 26.8N 122.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 12 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 110600Z --- 28.4N 117.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 070900Z POSITION NEAR 19.2N 137.5E. TYPHOON (TY) 08W (SAOMAI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 725 NM SOUTHEAST OF NAHA, OKINAWA, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 15 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 070600Z IS 20 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 071500Z, 072100Z, 080300Z AND 080900Z. REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 09W (MARIA) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES. REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 10W (BOPHA) WARNINGS (WTPN33 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.// ** WTPN33 PGTW 070900 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// REF/A/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/070751ZAUG2006// REF/B/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/070752ZAUG2006// NARR/REFS A AND B ARE TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS.// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL STORM 10W (BOPHA) WARNING NR 005 03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 070600Z --- NEAR 22.9N 128.2E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 285 DEGREES AT 08 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 22.9N 128.2E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 071800Z --- 23.2N 126.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 080600Z --- 23.5N 124.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 081800Z --- 23.6N 123.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 06 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 090600Z --- 23.5N 122.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 100600Z --- 23.4N 119.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 07 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 110600Z --- 23.4N 116.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 120600Z --- 24.5N 113.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 070900Z POSITION NEAR 23.0N 127.8E. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 10W (BOPHA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 200 NM SOUTH OF NAHA, OKINAWA, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 070600Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 071500Z, 072100Z, 080300Z AND 080900Z. REFER TO TYPHOON 08W (SAOMAI) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES. REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 09W (MARIA) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.// ** WTPQ20 BABJ 070900 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST STS BOPHA 0609 (0609) INITIAL TIME 070900 UTC 00HR 22.8N 127.5E 985HPA 25M/S 30KTS 250KM 50KTS 50KM P12HR W 20KM/H P+24HR 23.0N 125.1E 985HPA 25M/S P+48HR 22.1N 121.4E 990HPA 23M/S P+72HR 20.5N 117.9E 995HPA 20M/S= ** WTPQ21 RJTD 070900 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME STS 0607 MARIA (0607) ANALYSIS PSTN 070900UTC 30.9N 137.9E GOOD MOVE NNW 09KT PRES 975HPA MXWD 060KT 50KT 50NM 30KT 140NM FORECAST 24HF 080900UTC 33.5N 135.4E 80NM 70% MOVE NW 07KT PRES 980HPA MXWD 055KT 45HF 090600UTC 35.8N 135.4E 160NM 70% MOVE N SLOWLY PRES 990HPA MXWD 040KT 69HF 100600UTC 37.6N 136.4E 290NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION = ** WTJP32 RJTD 070900 *** WARNING 070900. WARNING VALID 080900. STORM WARNING. SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 0607 MARIA (0607) 975 HPA AT 30.9N 137.9E SEA SOUTH OF JAPAN MOVING NORTHNORTHWEST 09 KNOTS. POSITION GOOD. MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 50 MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 140 MILES. FORECAST POSITION FOR 072100UTC AT 32.3N 136.3E WITH 60 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 975 HPA, MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. FORECAST POSITION FOR 080900UTC AT 33.5N 135.4E WITH 80 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 980 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPH20 RPMM 070600 *** TTT GALE WARNING 08 AT 0600 07 AUGUST TROPICAL STORM (0609) (BOPHA) WAS ESTIMATED BASED ON SATELLITE AND SURFACE DATA AT TWO TWO POINT EIGHT NORTH ONE TWO SEVEN POINT EIGHT EAST FORECAST TO MOVE WEWT AT ZERO THREE METERS PER SECOND ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN TWO FIVE ZERO ZERO KILOMETERS RADIUS FROM CENTER ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE NINE NINE ONE HECTOPASCALS MAXIMUM WINDS TWO THREE METERS PER SECOND NEAR CENTER ONE THREE METERS PER SECOND WITHIN TWO FIVE ZERO ZERO KILOMETERS RADIUS FROM CENTER FORECAST POSITIONS AT 080600 TWO THREE POINT ZERO NORTH ONE TWO FOUR POINT SIX EAST AT 090600 TWO TWO POINT SEVEN NORTH ONE TWO ONE POINT THREE EAST AND AT 100600 TWO ONE POINT EIGHT NORTH ONE ONE NINE POINT ZERO EAST ALL SHIPS WITHIN STORM AREA ARE REQUESTED TO SEND THREE HOURLY WEATHER REPORTS TO WEATHER MANILA PD WEATHER MANILA= ** WTPH RPLL 070600 *** T T T GALE WARNING 08 AT 0600 07 AUGUST TROPICAL STORM (0609) (BOPHA) WAS ESTIMATED BASED ON SAT AND SURFACE DATA AT 22.8N 127.8E FORECAST TO MOVE WEST AT 03MPS ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN 250KMS RADIUS FROM CENTER ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE 990 HECTOPASCALS MAXIMUM WINDS 23MPS NEAR CENTER 13MPS WITHIN 250KSM RADIUS FROM CENTER FORECAST POSITION AT 080600 23.0N 124.6E AT 090600 22.7N 12.3E AND AT 100600 21.8N 119.0E ALL SHIPS WITHIN STORM AREA ARE REQUESTED TO SEND THREE HOUTRLY WEATHER REPORTS TO WEATHER MANILA PD ** WTJP33 RJTD 070900 *** WARNING 070900. WARNING VALID 080900. STORM WARNING. SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 0609 BOPHA (0609) 985 HPA AT 22.9N 127.5E SEA SOUTH OF OKINAWA MOVING WEST 07 KNOTS. POSITION FAIR. MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 120 MILES. FORECAST POSITION FOR 072100UTC AT 23.1N 125.9E WITH 60 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 980 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. FORECAST POSITION FOR 080900UTC AT 23.1N 124.5E WITH 80 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 975 HPA, MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ22 RJTD 070900 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME STS 0609 BOPHA (0609) ANALYSIS PSTN 070900UTC 22.9N 127.5E FAIR MOVE W 07KT PRES 985HPA MXWD 050KT 30KT 120NM FORECAST 24HF 080900UTC 23.1N 124.5E 80NM 70% MOVE W 06KT PRES 975HPA MXWD 060KT 45HF 090600UTC 22.6N 121.9E 150NM 70% MOVE WSW 06KT PRES 970HPA MXWD 065KT 69HF 100600UTC 21.8N 119.3E 220NM 70% MOVE WSW 06KT PRES 975HPA MXWD 060KT = ** WTJP31 RJTD 070900 *** WARNING 070900. WARNING VALID 080900. TYPHOON WARNING. TYPHOON 0608 SAOMAI (0608) 970 HPA AT 18.9N 137.5E SEA EAST OF PHILIPPINES MOVING WESTNORTHWEST 12 KNOTS. POSITION FAIR. MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 50 MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 200 MILES. FORECAST POSITION FOR 080900UTC AT 21.8N 133.0E WITH 80 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 960 HPA, MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 070900 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TY 0608 SAOMAI (0608) ANALYSIS PSTN 070900UTC 18.9N 137.5E FAIR MOVE WNW 12KT PRES 970HPA MXWD 065KT 50KT 50NM 30KT 200NM FORECAST 24HF 080900UTC 21.8N 133.0E 80NM 70% MOVE WNW 12KT PRES 960HPA MXWD 070KT 45HF 090600UTC 24.1N 129.7E 150NM 70% MOVE WNW 11KT PRES 955HPA MXWD 075KT 69HF 100600UTC 26.8N 126.5E 220NM 70% MOVE NW 09KT PRES 955HPA MXWD 075KT =