** WTPQ20 BABJ 070000 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST STS SAOMAI 0608 (0608) INITIAL TIME 070000 UTC 00HR 17.9N 139.5E 980HPA 30M/S 30KTS 300KM 50KTS 80KM P12HR NW 20KM/H P+24HR 20.8N 136.0E 975HPA 33M/S P+48HR 23.4N 132.1E 970HPA 35M/S P+72HR 25.6N 126.3E 970HPA 35M/S= ** WTPQ20 BABJ 070000 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST STS MARIA 0607 (0607) INITIAL TIME 070000 UTC 00HR 29.6N 138.8E 980HPA 30M/S 30KTS 300KM 50KTS 100KM P12HR NW 20KM/H P+24HR 31.4N 135.5E 980HPA 30M/S P+48HR 34.2N 132.5E 985HPA 25M/S P+72HR 37.1N 131.1E 990HPA 23M/S= ** WTPQ21 RJTD 070000 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME STS 0607 MARIA (0607) ANALYSIS PSTN 070000UTC 29.6N 138.8E GOOD MOVE NW 11KT PRES 980HPA MXWD 055KT 50KT 40NM 30KT 140NM FORECAST 24HF 080000UTC 32.2N 135.3E 80NM 70% MOVE NW 10KT PRES 980HPA MXWD 055KT 48HF 090000UTC 34.8N 132.9E 150NM 70% MOVE NW 08KT PRES 985HPA MXWD 050KT 72HF 100000UTC 37.2N 131.2E 220NM 70% MOVE NNW 06KT PRES 990HPA MXWD 045KT = ** WTJP22 RJTD 070000 *** WARNING 070000. WARNING VALID 080000. WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS. STORM WARNING. SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 0607 MARIA (0607) 980 HPA AT 29.6N 138.8E SEA SOUTH OF JAPAN MOVING NORTHWEST 11 KNOTS. POSITION GOOD. MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 40 MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 140 MILES. FORECAST POSITION FOR 071200UTC AT 30.8N 137.1E WITH 60 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 980 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. FORECAST POSITION FOR 080000UTC AT 32.2N 135.3E WITH 80 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 980 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. FORECAST POSITION FOR 090000UTC AT 34.8N 132.9E WITH 150 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 985 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. FORECAST POSITION FOR 100000UTC AT 37.2N 131.2E WITH 220 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 990 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ20 BABJ 070000 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST STS BOPHA 0609 (0609) INITIAL TIME 070000 UTC 00HR 22.5N 129.0E 985HPA 25M/S 30KTS 250KM 50KTS 50KM P12HR W 15KM/H P+24HR 23.0N 126.3E 985HPA 25M/S P+48HR 22.5N 123.7E 990HPA 23M/S P+72HR 21.1N 120.2E 995HPA 20M/S= ** WTJP23 RJTD 070000 *** WARNING 070000. WARNING VALID 080000. WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS. STORM WARNING. SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 0609 BOPHA (0609) UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL STORM 985 HPA AT 22.7N 129.0E SEA SOUTH OF OKINAWA MOVING WESTNORTHWEST 07 KNOTS. POSITION FAIR. MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 120 MILES. FORECAST POSITION FOR 080000UTC AT 23.1N 126.2E WITH 80 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 975 HPA, MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. FORECAST POSITION FOR 090000UTC AT 23.0N 123.2E WITH 150 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 970 HPA, MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. FORECAST POSITION FOR 100000UTC AT 22.1N 120.5E WITH 220 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 975 HPA, MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ22 RJTD 070000 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME STS 0609 BOPHA (0609) UPGRADED FROM TS ANALYSIS PSTN 070000UTC 22.7N 129.0E FAIR MOVE WNW 07KT PRES 985HPA MXWD 050KT 30KT 120NM FORECAST 24HF 080000UTC 23.1N 126.2E 80NM 70% MOVE W 06KT PRES 975HPA MXWD 060KT 48HF 090000UTC 23.0N 123.2E 150NM 70% MOVE W 06KT PRES 970HPA MXWD 065KT 72HF 100000UTC 22.1N 120.5E 220NM 70% MOVE W 06KT PRES 975HPA MXWD 060KT = ** WTJP21 RJTD 070000 *** WARNING 070000. WARNING VALID 080000. WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS. TYPHOON WARNING. SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 0608 SAOMAI (0608) 975 HPA AT 17.9N 139.5E MARIANAS MOVING WESTNORTHWEST 12 KNOTS. POSITION FAIR. MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 45 MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 200 MILES. FORECAST POSITION FOR 080000UTC AT 20.4N 135.2E WITH 80 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 970 HPA, MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. FORECAST POSITION FOR 090000UTC AT 22.5N 131.8E WITH 150 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 965 HPA, MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. FORECAST POSITION FOR 100000UTC AT 25.0N 128.0E WITH 220 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 965 HPA, MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 070000 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME STS 0608 SAOMAI (0608) ANALYSIS PSTN 070000UTC 17.9N 139.5E FAIR MOVE WNW 12KT PRES 975HPA MXWD 060KT 50KT 45NM 30KT 200NM FORECAST 24HF 080000UTC 20.4N 135.2E 80NM 70% MOVE WNW 11KT PRES 970HPA MXWD 065KT 48HF 090000UTC 22.5N 131.8E 150NM 70% MOVE WNW 09KT PRES 965HPA MXWD 070KT 72HF 100000UTC 25.0N 128.0E 220NM 70% MOVE WNW 10KT PRES 965HPA MXWD 070KT = ** WTKO20 RKSL 070000 *** KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 2 NAME STS 0609 BOPHA ANALYSIS POSITION 070000UTC 22.7N 129.0E MOVEMENT W 7KT PRES/VMAX 985HPA 49KT FORECAST 24HR POSITION 080000UTC 23.3N 125.8E WITHIN 80NM PRES/VMAX 975HPA 56KT 48HR POSITION 090000UTC 23.2N 122.7E WITHIN 135NM PRES/VMAX 970HPA 64KT 72HR POSITION 100000UTC 22.8N 119.9E WITHIN 215NM PRES/VMAX 975HPA 60KT KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION. ** WTPQ30 RJTD 070000 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING REASONING NO. 5 FOR STS 0607 MARIA (0607) 1.GENERAL COMMENTS REASONING OF PROGNOSIS THIS TIME IS SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS ONE. POSITION FORECAST IS MAINLY BASED ON NWP AND PERSISTENCY. 2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION NOTHING PARTICULAR TO EXPLAIN. 3.MOTION FORECAST POSITION ACCURACY AT 070000 UTC IS FAIR. STS WILL MOVE AT THE SAME SPEED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. STS WILL MOVE NORTHWEST FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. 4.INTENSITY FORECAST STS WILL KEEP PRESENT INTENSITY FOR NEXT 24 HOURS. FI-NUMBER WILL BE 4.5 AFTER 24 HOURS.= ** WTPQ31 RJTD 070000 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING REASONING NO. 4 FOR TS 0608 SAOMAI (0608) 1.GENERAL COMMENTS REASONING OF PROGNOSIS THIS TIME IS SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS ONE. POSITION FORECAST IS MAINLY BASED ON NWP AND PERSISTENCY. 2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION NOTHING PARTICULAR TO EXPLAIN. 3.MOTION FORECAST POSITION ACCURACY AT 070000 UTC IS FAIR. TS WILL MOVE AT THE SAME SPEED FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS. TS WILL MOVE NORTHWEST FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS. 4.INTENSITY FORECAST TS WILL BE GRADED UP TO TY WITHIN 24 HOURS. TS WILL DEVELOP BECAUSE CYCLONE WILL STAY IN HIGH SST AREA. FI-NUMBER WILL BE 5.0 AFTER 24 HOURS.= ** WTPN31 PGTW 070300 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// REF/A/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN/PEARL HARBOR HI/070152ZAUG2006// REF/B/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN/PEARL HARBOR HI/070153ZAUG2006// NARR/REFS A AND B ARE TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS.// RMKS/ 1. TYPHOON 08W (SAOMAI) WARNING NR 010 03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 070000Z --- NEAR 18.0N 139.4E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 310 DEGREES AT 14 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 18.0N 139.4E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 071200Z --- 19.8N 137.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 14 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 080000Z --- 21.6N 134.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 14 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 081200Z --- 23.2N 132.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 14 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 090000Z --- 24.4N 129.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 13 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 100000Z --- 26.2N 124.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 11 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 110000Z --- 28.6N 119.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 070300Z POSITION NEAR 18.4N 138.9E. TYPHOON (TY) 08W (SAOMAI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 420 NM NORTHWEST OF GUAM, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 14 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. A 062300Z TRMM PASS SHOWS THAT TY 08W HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED WITH A BANDING EYE. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 070000Z IS 20 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 070900Z, 071500Z, 072100Z AND 080300Z. REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 09W (MARIA) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES. REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 10W (BOPHA) WARNINGS (WTPN33 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.// ** WTPN32 PGTW 070300 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// REF/A/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/070151ZAUG2006// REF/B/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/070153ZAUG2006// NARR/REFS A AND B ARE TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS.// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL STORM 09W (MARIA) WARNING NR 006 03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 070000Z --- NEAR 29.6N 138.7E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 315 DEGREES AT 12 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 29.6N 138.7E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 071200Z --- 31.0N 136.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 080000Z --- 32.3N 135.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 081200Z --- 33.7N 135.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 355 DEG/ 08 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 090000Z --- 35.3N 135.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 010 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 100000Z --- 39.1N 135.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: 070300Z POSITION NEAR 29.9N 138.2E. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 09W (MARIA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 320 NM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF IWO JIMA, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 070000Z IS 21 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 070900Z, 071500Z, 072100Z AND 080300Z. REFER TO TYPHOON 08W (SAOMAI) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES. REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 10W (BOPHA) WARNINGS (WTPN33 PGTW) FOR SIX- HOURLY UPDATES.// ** WTPQ32 RJTD 070000 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING REASONING NO. 3 FOR STS 0609 BOPHA (0609) 1.GENERAL COMMENTS REASONING OF PROGNOSIS THIS TIME IS SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS ONE. POSITION FORECAST IS MAINLY BASED ON NWP AND PERSISTENCY. 2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION NOTHING PARTICULAR TO EXPLAIN. 3.MOTION FORECAST POSITION ACCURACY AT 070000 UTC IS FAIR. STS WILL MOVE AT THE SAME SPEED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS DECELERATE. STS WILL MOVE WEST FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS. 4.INTENSITY FORECAST STS WILL KEEP PRESENT INTENSITY FOR NEXT 24 HOURS. FI-NUMBER WILL BE 3.5 AFTER 24 HOURS.= ** WTPN33 PGTW 070300 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// REF/A/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/070151ZAUG2006// REF/B/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/070152ZAUG2006// NARR/REFS A AND B ARE TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS.// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL STORM 10W (BOPHA) WARNING NR 004 03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 070000Z --- NEAR 22.7N 129.0E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 280 DEGREES AT 06 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 22.7N 129.0E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 071200Z --- 23.0N 127.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 080000Z --- 23.6N 126.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 081200Z --- 24.0N 124.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 08 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 090000Z --- 24.3N 122.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 100000Z --- 24.7N 120.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 06 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 110000Z --- 25.2N 117.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 070300Z POSITION NEAR 22.8N 128.6E. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 10W (BOPHA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 160 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF NAHA, OKINAWA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. A 062147Z SSM/I PASS REVEALS THE PRIMARY DEEP CONVECTION IS CONFINED TO THE WEST AND SOUTH OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 070000Z IS 13 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 070900Z, 071500Z, 072100Z AND 080300Z. REFER TO TYPHOON 08W (SAOMAI) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES. REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 09W (MARIA) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.// ** WTPQ31 RJTD 070000 CCA *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING REASONING NO. 5 FOR STS 0608 SAOMAI (0608) 1.GENERAL COMMENTS REASONING OF PROGNOSIS THIS TIME IS SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS ONE. POSITION FORECAST IS MAINLY BASED ON NWP AND PERSISTENCY. 2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION NOTHING PARTICULAR TO EXPLAIN. 3.MOTION FORECAST POSITION ACCURACY AT 070000 UTC IS FAIR. STS WILL MOVE AT THE SAME SPEED FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS. STS WILL MOVE NORTHWEST FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS. 4.INTENSITY FORECAST STS WILL BE GRADED UP TO TY WITHIN 24 HOURS. STS WILL DEVELOP BECAUSE CYCLONE WILL STAY IN HIGH SST AREA. FI-NUMBER WILL BE 5.0 AFTER 24 HOURS.= ** WTPQ20 BABJ 070300 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST STS BOPHA 0609 (0609) INITIAL TIME 070300 UTC 00HR 22.7N 128.6E 985HPA 25M/S 30KTS 250KM 50KTS 50KM P12HR W 15KM/H= ** WTPH20 RPMM 070000 *** T T T GALE WARNING 07 AT 0000 07 AUGUST TROPICAL STORM (0609)(BOPHA) WAS ESTIMATED BASED ON SATELLITE AND SURFRACE DATA AT TWO TWO POINT SIX NORTH ONE TWO NINE POINT ZERO EAST FORECAST TO MOVEWEST NORTHWEST AT ZERO THREE METERS PER SECOND ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN TWO FIVE ZERO KILOMETER RADIUS FROM CENTER ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE NINE NINE ONE HECTOPASCALS MAXIMUM WINDS TWO THREE METERS PER SECOND NEAR CENTER ONE THREE METERS PER SECOND WITHIN TWO FIVE ZERO KILOMETER RADIUS FROM CENTER FORECAST POSITIONS AT 080000 TWO THREE POINT THREE NORTH ONE TWO SIX POINT ONE EAST AT 090000 TWO THREE POINT NINE NORTH ONE TWO TWO POINT NINE EAST AND AT 100000 TWO FOUR POINT FIVE NORTH ONE ONE NINE POINT EIGHT EAST ALL SHIPS WITHIN STORM AREA ARE REQUESTED TO SEND THREE HOURLY WEATHER REPORTS TO WEATHER MANILA PD WEATHER MANILA= ** WTPQ21 RJTD 070300 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME STS 0607 MARIA (0607) ANALYSIS PSTN 070300UTC 30.1N 138.5E GOOD MOVE NW 12KT PRES 980HPA MXWD 055KT 50KT 40NM 30KT 140NM FORECAST 24HF 080300UTC 32.5N 135.0E 80NM 70% MOVE NW 09KT PRES 980HPA MXWD 055KT 45HF 090000UTC 34.8N 132.9E 150NM 70% MOVE NW 08KT PRES 985HPA MXWD 050KT 69HF 100000UTC 37.2N 131.2E 220NM 70% MOVE NNW 06KT PRES 990HPA MXWD 045KT = ** WTJP32 RJTD 070300 *** WARNING 070300. WARNING VALID 080300. STORM WARNING. SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 0607 MARIA (0607) 980 HPA AT 30.1N 138.5E SEA SOUTH OF JAPAN MOVING NORTHWEST 12 KNOTS. POSITION GOOD. MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 40 MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 140 MILES. FORECAST POSITION FOR 071500UTC AT 31.2N 136.7E WITH 60 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 980 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. FORECAST POSITION FOR 080300UTC AT 32.5N 135.0E WITH 80 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 980 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTJP33 RJTD 070300 *** WARNING 070300. WARNING VALID 080300. STORM WARNING. SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 0609 BOPHA (0609) 985 HPA AT 22.9N 128.3E SEA SOUTH OF OKINAWA MOVING WESTNORTHWEST 07 KNOTS. POSITION FAIR. MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 120 MILES. FORECAST POSITION FOR 080300UTC AT 23.1N 125.7E WITH 80 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 975 HPA, MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ22 RJTD 070300 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME STS 0609 BOPHA (0609) ANALYSIS PSTN 070300UTC 22.9N 128.3E FAIR MOVE WNW 07KT PRES 985HPA MXWD 050KT 30KT 120NM FORECAST 24HF 080300UTC 23.1N 125.7E 80NM 70% MOVE W 06KT PRES 975HPA MXWD 060KT 45HF 090000UTC 23.0N 123.2E 150NM 70% MOVE W 06KT PRES 970HPA MXWD 065KT 69HF 100000UTC 22.1N 120.5E 220NM 70% MOVE W 06KT PRES 975HPA MXWD 060KT = ** WTJP31 RJTD 070300 *** WARNING 070300. WARNING VALID 080300. TYPHOON WARNING. SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 0608 SAOMAI (0608) 975 HPA AT 18.3N 138.7E SEA EAST OF PHILIPPINES MOVING NORTHWEST 12 KNOTS. POSITION FAIR. MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 45 MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 200 MILES. FORECAST POSITION FOR 080300UTC AT 20.9N 134.5E WITH 80 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 970 HPA, MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 070300 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME STS 0608 SAOMAI (0608) ANALYSIS PSTN 070300UTC 18.3N 138.7E FAIR MOVE NW 12KT PRES 975HPA MXWD 060KT 50KT 45NM 30KT 200NM FORECAST 24HF 080300UTC 20.9N 134.5E 80NM 70% MOVE WNW 11KT PRES 970HPA MXWD 065KT 45HF 090000UTC 22.5N 131.8E 150NM 70% MOVE WNW 09KT PRES 965HPA MXWD 070KT 69HF 100000UTC 25.0N 128.0E 220NM 70% MOVE WNW 10KT PRES 965HPA MXWD 070KT = ** WTPH RPLL 070000 *** TTT GALE WARNING 07 AT 0000 07 AUGUST TROPICAL STOR (0609) (BOPHA) WAS ESTIMATED AT 22.6N 129.0E FORECAST TO MOVE WEST NORTHWEST AT 03MPS ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN 250 KMS RADIUS FROM CENTER ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE 990 HECTOPASCALS MAXIMUM WINDS 23MPS NEAR CENTER 13MPS WITHIN 250 KMS RADIUS FROM CENTER FORECAST POSITIONS AT 080000 23.3N 126.1E AT 090000 23.9N 122.9E AND AT 100000 24.5N 119.8E ALL SHIPS WITHIN STORM AREA ARE REQUESTED TO SEND THREE HOURLY WEATHER REPORTS TO WEATHER MANILA= ** WTPQ31 PGUM 070424 *** TCPPQ1 BULLETIN TYPHOON SAOMAI (08W) ADVISORY NUMBER 10 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU 200 PM GUAM LST MON AUG 7 2006 ...TYPHOON SAOMAI INTENSIFYING AS IT MOVES AWAY FROM THE MARIANAS... NO WATCHES OR WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT. AT 1 PM GUAM LST..0300Z..THE CENTER OF TYPHOON SAOMAI WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.4 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 138.9 DEGREES EAST. THIS IS ABOUT 515 MILES NORTHWEST OF GUAM. TYPHOON SAOMAI IS MOVING NORTHWEST AT 16 MPH...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 85 MPH. TYPHOON SAOMAI IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY THROUGH TONIGHT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 120 MILES FROM THE CENTER. TYPHOON FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 20 MILES FROM THE CENTER. REPEATING THE 1 PM POSITION...18.4 DEGREES NORTH AND 138.9 DEGREES EAST...MOVING NORTHWEST AT 16 MPH WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF 85 MPH. THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY THAT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILL ISSUE ON TYPHOON SAOMAI. $$ MIDDLEBROOKE ** WTNT80 EGRR 070541 *** MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 07.08.2006 NO TROPICAL CYCLONES ANALYSED OR FORECAST TO DEVELOP IN THIS AREA IN THE NEXT THREE DAYS THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 070541