** WTIN20 DEMS 060600 *** TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK DERMS-RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONES NEW DELHI 06-08-2006 TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NORTH INDIAN OCEAN (THE BAY OF BENGAL AND ARABIAN SEA) VALID FOR NEXT 24 HOURS ISSUED AT 0600 UTC(.) CONVECTIVE CLOUDS ARE SEEN OVER PARTS OF EAST CENTRAL ARABIAN SEA AND ANDAMAN SEA. RIDGE LINE 200 HPA RUNS ALONG 32 DEG NORTH OVER THE INDIAN REGION(.) ** WTPQ20 BABJ 060800 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TS SAOMAI 0608 (0608) INITIAL TIME 060800 UTC 00HR 15.2N 143.0E 995HPA 20M/S 30KTS 300KM P12HR NW 20KM/H P+24HR 18.4N 141.2E 990HPA 23M/S P+48HR 21.5N 137.1E 985HPA 28M/S P+72HR 23.6N 131.9E 975HPA 33M/S= ** WTPQ20 BABJ 060600 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TS SAOMAI 0608 (0608) INITIAL TIME 060600 UTC 00HR 15.2N 143.0E 995HPA 20M/S 30KTS 300KM P12HR NW 20KM/H P+24HR 18.4N 141.2E 990HPA 23M/S P+48HR 21.5N 137.1E 985HPA 28M/S P+72HR 23.6N 131.9E 975HPA 33M/S= ** WTPQ20 BABJ 060600 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST STS MARIA 0607 (0607) INITIAL TIME 060600 UTC 00HR 27.5N 141.6E 980HPA 25M/S 30KTS 260KM 50KTS 100KM P12HR WNW 20KM/H P+24HR 28.9N 138.6E 980HPA 30M/S P+48HR 31.3N 134.5E 970HPA 35M/S P+72HR 35.0N 130.8E 970HPA 35M/S= ** WTPQ20 BABJ 060800 CCA *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TS SAOMAI 0608 (0608) INITIAL TIME 060800 UTC ** WTJP22 RJTD 060600 *** WARNING 060600. WARNING VALID 070600. WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS. STORM WARNING. SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 0607 MARIA (0607) UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL STORM 985 HPA AT 27.6N 141.6E NORTHWEST OF CHICHIJIMA MOVING WESTNORTHWEST 12 KNOTS. POSITION FAIR. MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 120 MILES. FORECAST POSITION FOR 061800UTC AT 28.8N 139.7E WITH 60 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 980 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. FORECAST POSITION FOR 070600UTC AT 29.9N 137.7E WITH 80 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 980 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. FORECAST POSITION FOR 080600UTC AT 31.9N 133.3E WITH 150 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 980 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. FORECAST POSITION FOR 090600UTC AT 32.6N 128.5E WITH 220 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 980 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ21 RJTD 060600 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME STS 0607 MARIA (0607) UPGRADED FROM TS ANALYSIS PSTN 060600UTC 27.6N 141.6E FAIR MOVE WNW 12KT PRES 985HPA MXWD 050KT 30KT 120NM FORECAST 24HF 070600UTC 29.9N 137.7E 80NM 70% MOVE WNW 10KT PRES 980HPA MXWD 055KT 48HF 080600UTC 31.9N 133.3E 150NM 70% MOVE WNW 10KT PRES 980HPA MXWD 055KT 72HF 090600UTC 32.6N 128.5E 220NM 70% MOVE W 10KT PRES 980HPA MXWD 055KT = ** WTPQ20 BABJ 060600 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TS SAOMAI 0608 (0608) INITIAL TIME 060800 UTC 00HR 15.2N 143.0E 995HPA 20M/S 30KTS 300KM P12HR NW 20KM/H P+24HR 18.4N 141.2E 990HPA 23M/S P+48HR 21.5N 137.1E 985HPA 28M/S P+72HR 23.6N 131.9E 975HPA 33M/S= ** WTPQ20 BABJ 060600 CCA *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TS SAOMAI 0608 (0608) INITIAL TIME 060800 UTC ** WTPQ20 BABJ 060600 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TD05 INITIAL TIME 060600 UTC 00HR 21.9N 131.3E 1002HPA 15M/S P12HR NW 20KM/H P+24HR 22.8N 129.0E 998HPA 18M/S= ** WTJP21 RJTD 060600 *** WARNING 060600. WARNING VALID 070600. WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS. STORM WARNING. TROPICAL STORM 0608 SAOMAI (0608) 992 HPA AT 15.2N 143.1E MARIANAS MOVING NORTHWEST 16 KNOTS. POSITION FAIR. MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 180 MILES. FORECAST POSITION FOR 070600UTC AT 19.2N 139.0E WITH 80 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 980 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. FORECAST POSITION FOR 080600UTC AT 22.4N 135.6E WITH 150 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 975 HPA, MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. FORECAST POSITION FOR 090600UTC AT 25.7N 132.1E WITH 220 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 970 HPA, MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 060600 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TS 0608 SAOMAI (0608) ANALYSIS PSTN 060600UTC 15.2N 143.1E FAIR MOVE NW 16KT PRES 992HPA MXWD 045KT 30KT 180NM FORECAST 24HF 070600UTC 19.2N 139.0E 80NM 70% MOVE NW 13KT PRES 980HPA MXWD 055KT 48HF 080600UTC 22.4N 135.6E 150NM 70% MOVE NW 11KT PRES 975HPA MXWD 060KT 72HF 090600UTC 25.7N 132.1E 220NM 70% MOVE NW 11KT PRES 970HPA MXWD 065KT = ** WTPQ22 RJTD 060600 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TS 0609 BOPHA (0609) UPGRADED FROM TD ANALYSIS PSTN 060600UTC 22.0N 131.2E FAIR MOVE NW 06KT PRES 998HPA MXWD 035KT 30KT 150NM FORECAST 24HF 070600UTC 22.6N 129.5E 80NM 70% MOVE WNW SLOWLY PRES 992HPA MXWD 045KT 48HF 080600UTC 22.6N 128.6E 150NM 70% MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY PRES 992HPA MXWD 045KT 72HF 090600UTC 22.6N 127.5E 220NM 70% MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY PRES 992HPA MXWD 045KT = ** WTJP23 RJTD 060600 *** WARNING 060600. WARNING VALID 070600. WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS. GALE WARNING. TROPICAL STORM 0609 BOPHA (0609) UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL DEPRESSION 998 HPA AT 22.0N 131.2E SEA SOUTH OF JAPAN MOVING NORTHWEST 06 KNOTS. POSITION FAIR. MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 150 MILES. FORECAST POSITION FOR 070600UTC AT 22.6N 129.5E WITH 80 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 992 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. FORECAST POSITION FOR 080600UTC AT 22.6N 128.6E WITH 150 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 992 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. FORECAST POSITION FOR 090600UTC AT 22.6N 127.5E WITH 220 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 992 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTKO20 RKSL 060600 *** KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 3 NAME STS 0607 MARIA ANALYSIS POSITION 060600UTC 27.6N 141.6E MOVEMENT WNW 11KT PRES/VMAX 985HPA 49KT FORECAST 24HR POSITION 070600UTC 29.4N 137.2E WITHIN 80NM PRES/VMAX 980HPA 58KT 48HR POSITION 080600UTC 30.4N 132.7E WITHIN 150NM PRES/VMAX 980HPA 58KT 72HR POSITION 090600UTC 31.6N 127.6E WITHIN 220NM PRES/VMAX 975HPA 64KT KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION. ** WTPQ30 RJTD 060600 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING REASONING NO. 4 FOR TS 0607 MARIA (0607) 1.GENERAL COMMENTS REASONING OF PROGNOSIS THIS TIME IS SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS ONE. POSITION FORECAST IS MAINLY BASED ON NWP AND PERSISTENCY. 2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION NOTHING PARTICULAR TO EXPLAIN. 3.MOTION FORECAST POSITION ACCURACY AT 060600 UTC IS FAIR. TS WILL MOVE AT THE SAME SPEED FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS. TS WILL MOVE WEST-NORTHWEST EAST-SOUTHEAST. 4.INTENSITY FORECAST TS WILL KEEP PRESENT INTENSITY FOR NEXT 24 HOURS. FI-NUMBER WILL BE 3.5 AFTER 24 HOURS.= ** WTPQ31 RJTD 060600 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING REASONING NO. 3 FOR TS 0608 SAOMAI (0608) 1.GENERAL COMMENTS REASONING OF PROGNOSIS THIS TIME IS SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS ONE. POSITION FORECAST IS MAINLY BASED ON NWP AND PERSISTENCY. 2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION NOTHING PARTICULAR TO EXPLAIN. 3.MOTION FORECAST POSITION ACCURACY AT 060600 UTC IS FAIR. TS WILL MOVE AT THE SAME SPEED FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS. TS WILL MOVE NORTHWEST FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS. 4.INTENSITY FORECAST TS WILL BE GRADED UP TO STS WITHIN 24 HOURS. TS WILL DEVELOP BECAUSE CYCLONE WILL STAY IN HIGH SST AREA. FI-NUMBER WILL BE 3.5 AFTER 24 HOURS.= ** WTPQ32 RJTD 060600 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING REASONING NO. 2 FOR TS 0609 BOPHA (0609) 1.GENERAL COMMENTS REASONING OF PROGNOSIS THIS TIME IS SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS ONE. POSITION FORECAST IS MAINLY BASED ON NWP AND PERSISTENCY. 2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION NOTHING PARTICULAR TO EXPLAIN. 3.MOTION FORECAST POSITION ACCURACY AT 060600 UTC IS FAIR. TS WILL MOVE AT THE SAME SPEED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS THEN DECELERATE. TS WILL MOVE WEST FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS. 4.INTENSITY FORECAST TS WILL KEEP PRESENT INTENSITY FOR NEXT 24 HOURS. FI-NUMBER WILL BE 3.0 AFTER 24 HOURS.= ** WTKO20 RKSL 060600 *** KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 3 NAME TS 0608 SAOMAI ANALYSIS POSITION 060600UTC 15.2N 143.1E MOVEMENT NW 16KT PRES/VMAX 992HPA 45KT FORECAST 24HR POSITION 070600UTC 19.2N 139.1E WITHIN 80NM PRES/VMAX 980HPA 52KT 48HR POSITION 080600UTC 22.3N 135.3E WITHIN 150NM PRES/VMAX 975HPA 56KT 72HR POSITION 090600UTC 25.1N 131.3E WITHIN 220NM PRES/VMAX 970HPA 60KT KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION. ** WTPN32 PGTW 060900 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// REF/A/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/060751ZAUG2006// REF/B/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/060753ZAUG2006// NARR/REF A AND B ARE TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL STORM 09W (MARIA) WARNING NR 003 03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 060600Z --- NEAR 27.5N 141.6E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 305 DEGREES AT 13 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 27.5N 141.6E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 061800Z --- 28.8N 139.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 11 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 070600Z --- 30.2N 137.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 071800Z --- 31.7N 136.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 09 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 080600Z --- 33.4N 135.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 090600Z --- 35.7N 134.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 000 DEG/ 07 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 100600Z --- 38.3N 134.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: 060900Z POSITION NEAR 27.8N 141.1E. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 09W (MARIA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 165 NM NORTH OF IWO JIMA, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 13 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 060600Z IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 061500Z, 062100Z, 070300Z AND 070900Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 08W (SAOMAI) WARNING (WTPN31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 10W (BOPHA) WARNING (WTPN33 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.// ** WTPN33 PGTW 060900 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// REF/A/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/060751ZAUG2006// REF/B/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/060752ZAUG2006// NARR/REF A AND B ARE TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS.// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 10W (BOPHA) WARNING NR 001 03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 060600Z --- NEAR 21.9N 131.2E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 310 DEGREES AT 05 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT REPEAT POSIT: 21.9N 131.2E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 061800Z --- 22.2N 129.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 070600Z --- 22.6N 128.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 071800Z --- 22.9N 126.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 08 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 080600Z --- 23.2N 124.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 090600Z --- 24.3N 122.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER --- REMARKS: 060900Z POSITION NEAR 22.0N 130.9E. TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 10W (BOPHA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 320 NM SOUTHEAST OF NAHA, OKINAWA, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 060600Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 061500Z, 062100Z, 070300Z AND 070900Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 08W (SAOMAI) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 09W (MARIA) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.// ** WTPQ20 BABJ 060900 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TS BOPHA 0609 (0609) INITIAL TIME 060900 UTC 00HR 22.0N 131.0E 998HPA 18M/S P12HR WNW 8KM/H P+24HR 23.0N 128.6E 990HPA 25M/S= ** WTPN31 PGTW 060900 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// REF/A/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN/PEARL HARBOR HI/060752ZAUG2006// REF/C/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN/PEARL HARBOR HI/060753ZAUG2006// NARR/REF A AND C ARE TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS.// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL STORM 08W (SAOMAI) WARNING NR 007 03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 060600Z --- NEAR 15.3N 143.0E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 310 DEGREES AT 14 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 15.3N 143.0E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 061800Z --- 17.3N 141.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 13 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 070600Z --- 19.1N 139.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 13 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 071800Z --- 20.7N 137.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 12 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 080600Z --- 21.7N 134.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 12 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 090600Z --- 23.4N 129.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 13 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 100600Z --- 25.2N 124.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 13 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 110600Z --- 27.7N 119.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 060900Z POSITION NEAR 15.8N 142.5E. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 08W (SAOMAI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 145 NM NORTHWEST OF GUAM, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 14 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 060600Z IS 16 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 061500Z, 062100Z, 070300Z AND 070900Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 09W (MARIA) WARNING (WTPN32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 10W (BOPHA) WARNING (WTPN33 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.// ** WTJP32 RJTD 060900 *** WARNING 060900. WARNING VALID 070900. STORM WARNING. SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 0607 MARIA (0607) 985 HPA AT 27.7N 141.1E NORTHWEST OF CHICHIJIMA MOVING WESTNORTHWEST 11 KNOTS. POSITION GOOD. MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 120 MILES. FORECAST POSITION FOR 062100UTC AT 28.9N 138.8E WITH 60 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 980 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. FORECAST POSITION FOR 070900UTC AT 30.2N 136.6E WITH 80 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 980 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ21 RJTD 060900 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME STS 0607 MARIA (0607) ANALYSIS PSTN 060900UTC 27.7N 141.1E GOOD MOVE WNW 11KT PRES 985HPA MXWD 050KT 30KT 120NM FORECAST 24HF 070900UTC 30.2N 136.6E 80NM 70% MOVE WNW 11KT PRES 980HPA MXWD 055KT 45HF 080600UTC 31.9N 133.3E 150NM 70% MOVE WNW 10KT PRES 980HPA MXWD 055KT 69HF 090600UTC 32.6N 128.5E 220NM 70% MOVE W 10KT PRES 980HPA MXWD 055KT = ** WTPQ22 RJTD 060900 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TS 0609 BOPHA (0609) ANALYSIS PSTN 060900UTC 22.2N 130.9E FAIR MOVE NW 06KT PRES 996HPA MXWD 040KT 30KT 180NM FORECAST 24HF 070900UTC 22.6N 129.3E 80NM 70% MOVE W SLOWLY PRES 992HPA MXWD 045KT 45HF 080600UTC 22.6N 128.6E 150NM 70% MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY PRES 992HPA MXWD 045KT 69HF 090600UTC 22.6N 127.5E 220NM 70% MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY PRES 992HPA MXWD 045KT = ** WTPH RPLL 060600 *** T T T GALE WARNING 04 AT 0600 06 AUGUST TROPICAL STORM (0609) (BOPHA) UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL DEPRESSION WAS ESTIMATED BASED ON SATELLITE AND SURFACE DATA AT 21.9N 131.1E FORECAST TOMVOE NORHTWEST AT 03KMS TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN 200KMS RADIUS FROM CENTER ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE 997HECTOPASCALS MAXIMUM WINDS 18MPS NEAR CENTER 13MPS WITHIN 200KMS RADIUS FROM CENTER FORECAST POSITIONS AT 070600 23.5N 129.2E AT 080600 24.3N 126.5E AND AT 090600 25.3N 124.0E ALL SHIPS WITHIN STORM AREA ARE REQUESTED TO SEND THREE HOURLY WEATHER REPORT TO WEATHER MANILA PD ** WTPQ20 RJTD 060900 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TS 0608 SAOMAI (0608) ANALYSIS PSTN 060900UTC 16.3N 142.4E FAIR MOVE NNW 22KT PRES 992HPA MXWD 045KT 30KT 180NM FORECAST 24HF 070900UTC 20.2N 138.4E 80NM 70% MOVE NW 13KT PRES 980HPA MXWD 055KT 45HF 080600UTC 22.4N 135.6E 150NM 70% MOVE NW 11KT PRES 975HPA MXWD 060KT 69HF 090600UTC 25.7N 132.1E 220NM 70% MOVE NW 11KT PRES 970HPA MXWD 065KT = ** WTJP31 RJTD 060900 *** WARNING 060900. WARNING VALID 070900. STORM WARNING. TROPICAL STORM 0608 SAOMAI (0608) 992 HPA AT 16.3N 142.4E MARIANAS MOVING NORTHNORTHWEST 22 KNOTS. POSITION FAIR. MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 180 MILES. FORECAST POSITION FOR 070900UTC AT 20.2N 138.4E WITH 80 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 980 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ31 PGUM 060959 *** TCPPQ1 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM SAOMAI (08W) ADVISORY NUMBER 7 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU 800 PM GUAM LST SUN AUG 6 2006 ...TROPICAL STORM SAOMAI CONTINUES TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE MARIANAS... NO WATCHES OR WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT. AT 7 PM GUAM LST..0900Z..THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM SAOMAI WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.8 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 142.5 DEGREES EAST. THIS IS ABOUT 220 MILES NORTHWEST OF GUAM 215 MILES NORTHWEST OF ROTA 215 MILES WEST-NORTHWEST OF TINIAN 220 MILES WEST-NORTHWEST OF SAIPAN. TROPICAL STORM SAOMAI IS MOVING NORTHWEST AT 16 MPH. THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 65 MPH. TROPICAL STORM SAOMAI IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY SLOWLY OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS OF 39 MPH OR MORE EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 80 MILES FROM THE CENTER IN THE NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 70 MILES ELSEWHERE. REPEATING THE 7 PM POSITION...15.8 DEGREES NORTH AND 142.5 DEGREES EAST...MOVING NORTHWEST AT 16 MPH WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF 65 MPH. THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AT 2 AM MONDAY GUAM LST. $$ ZIOBRO ** WTPH20 RPMM 060600 *** TTT GALE WARNING 04 AT 0600 06 AUGUST TROPICAL STORM (0609) {BOPHA} UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL DEPRESSION WAS ESTIMATED BASED ON SATELLITE AND SURFACE DATA AT TWO ONE POINT NINE NORTH ONE THREE ONE POINT ONE EAST FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHWEST AT ZERO THREE METERS PER SECOND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN TWO ZERO ZERO KILOMETER RADIUS FROM CENTER ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE NINE NINE SEVEN HECTOPASCALS MAXIMUM WINDS ONE EIGHT METERS PER SECOND NEAR CENTER ONE THREE METERS PER SECOND WITHIN TWO ZERO ZERO KILOMETER RADIUS FROM CENTER FORECAST POSITIONS AT 070600 TWO THREE POINT FIVE NORTH ONE TWO NINE POINT TWO EAST AT 080600 TWO FOUR POINT THREE NORTH ONE TWO SIX POINT FIVE EAST AND AT 090600 TWO FIVE POINT THREE NORTH ONE TWO FOUR POINT ZERO EAST ALL SHIPS WITHIN STORM AREA ARE REQUESTED TO SEND THREE HOURLY WEATHER REPORTS TO WEATHER MANILA PD WEATHER MANILA =