** WTPQ31 PGUM 060002 *** TCPPQ1 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM SAOMAI ADVISORY NUMBER 5. NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU 1000 AM GUAM LST SUN AUG 6 2006 ...TROPICAL STORM SAOMAI MOVING AWAY FROM GUAM... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ROTA. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS OF 39 MPH OR MORE IS EXPECTED WITHIN 12 HOURS. AT 951 AM GUAM LST...2351Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM SAOMAI WAS LOCATED BY RADAR NEAR LATITUDE 14.5 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 143.9 DEGREES EAST. THIS IS ABOUT 90 MILES NORTHWEST OF GUAM 90 MILES WEST-NORTHWEST OF ROTA 120 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF TINIAN 130 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF SAIPAN. TROPICAL STORM SAOMAI IS MOVING NORTHWEST AT 21 MPH. THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 50 MPH. TROPICAL STORM SAOMAI WILL CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY SLOWLY OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS OF 39 MPH OR MORE EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES FROM THE CENTER IN THE NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 20 MILES ELSEWHERE. REPEATING THE 951 AM POSITION...14.5 DEGREES NORTH AND 143.9 DEGREES EAST...MOVING NORTHWEST AT 21 MPH WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF 50 MPH. AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AT 12 NOON GUAM LST...FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY AT 2 PM GUAM LST. $$ EDSON ** WTSR20 WSSS 051800 *** NO STORM WARNING= ** WTPQ20 BABJ 060000 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TS MARIA 0607 (0607) INITIAL TIME 060000 UTC 00HR 27.0N 143.0E 995HPA 20M/S 30KTS 180KM P12HR WNW 20KM/H P+24HR 28.4N 139.5E 985HPA 25M/S P+48HR 31.1N 134.6E 980HPA 30M/S P+72HR 34.7N 130.9E 980HPA 30M/S= ** WTPQ20 BABJ 060000 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TS SAOMAI 0608 (0608) INITIAL TIME 060000 UTC 00HR 13.8N 144.2E 998HPA 18M/S 30KTS 280KM P12HR NW 20KM/H P+24HR 17.5N 142.4E 990HPA 23M/S P+48HR 20.6N 138.6E 985HPA 28M/S P+72HR 22.8N 133.9E 975HPA 33M/S= ** WTPQ21 RJTD 060000 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TS 0607 MARIA (0607) ANALYSIS PSTN 060000UTC 26.9N 142.7E FAIR MOVE WNW 12KT PRES 990HPA MXWD 045KT 30KT 120NM FORECAST 24HF 070000UTC 28.9N 138.1E 80NM 70% MOVE WNW 11KT PRES 980HPA MXWD 055KT 48HF 080000UTC 30.7N 133.8E 150NM 70% MOVE WNW 10KT PRES 980HPA MXWD 055KT 72HF 090000UTC 32.0N 129.0E 220NM 70% MOVE W 10KT PRES 980HPA MXWD 055KT = ** WTJP22 RJTD 060000 *** WARNING 060000. WARNING VALID 070000. WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS. STORM WARNING. TROPICAL STORM 0607 MARIA (0607) 990 HPA AT 26.9N 142.7E SOUTHEAST OF CHICHIJIMA MOVING WESTNORTHWEST 12 KNOTS. POSITION FAIR. MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 120 MILES. FORECAST POSITION FOR 061200UTC AT 27.9N 140.4E WITH 60 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 985 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. FORECAST POSITION FOR 070000UTC AT 28.9N 138.1E WITH 80 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 980 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. FORECAST POSITION FOR 080000UTC AT 30.7N 133.8E WITH 150 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 980 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. FORECAST POSITION FOR 090000UTC AT 32.0N 129.0E WITH 220 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 980 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ51 PGUM 060056 *** TCEPQ1 TROPICAL STORM SAOMAI POSITION ESTIMATE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GUAM 1058 AM GUAM LST SUN AUG 6 2006 AT 1052 AM GUAM LST...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM SAOMAI /08W/ WAS LOCATED BY RADAR NEAR LATITUDE 14.6 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 143.8 DEGREES EAST. THIS IS ABOUT 100 MILES NORTHWEST OF GUAM...100 MILES WEST-NORTHWEST OF ROTA...125 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF TINIAN AND 135 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF SAIPAN. $$ EDSON ** WTPQ31 PGUM 060100 *** TCPPQ1 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM SAOMAI INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 5A NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU 1100 AM GUAM LST SUN AUG 6 2006 ...TROPICAL STORM SAOMAI MOVING QUICKLY AWAY FROM THE MARIANAS... AS OF 11 AM GUAM LST...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR ROTA IS CANCELED. NO WATCHES OR WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT. AT 1052 AM GUAM LST..0052Z..THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM SAOMAI WAS LOCATED BY RADAR NEAR LATITUDE 14.6 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 143.8 DEGREES EAST. THIS IS ABOUT 100 MILES NORTHWEST OF GUAM 100 MILES WEST-NORTHWEST OF ROTA 125 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF TINIAN 135 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF SAIPAN. TROPICAL STORM SAOMAI IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST AT 17 MPH. THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 50 MPH. TROPICAL STORM SAOMAI IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY SLOWLY OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS OF 39 MPH OR MORE EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES FROM THE CENTER IN THE NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 20 MILES ELSEWHERE. REPEATING THE 1052 AM POSITION...14.6 DEGREES NORTH AND 143.8 DEGREES EAST...MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST AT 17 MPH WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF 50 MPH. THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AT 2 PM GUAM LST. $$ MIDDLEBROOKE ** WTJP21 RJTD 060000 *** WARNING 060000. WARNING VALID 070000. WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS. STORM WARNING. TROPICAL STORM 0608 SAOMAI (0608) 996 HPA AT 14.0N 144.2E MARIANAS MOVING NORTHWEST 17 KNOTS. POSITION FAIR. MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 170 MILES. FORECAST POSITION FOR 070000UTC AT 18.2N 141.0E WITH 80 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 985 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. FORECAST POSITION FOR 080000UTC AT 22.0N 138.2E WITH 150 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 975 HPA, MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. FORECAST POSITION FOR 090000UTC AT 26.0N 134.9E WITH 220 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 970 HPA, MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 060000 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TS 0608 SAOMAI (0608) ANALYSIS PSTN 060000UTC 14.0N 144.2E FAIR MOVE NW 17KT PRES 996HPA MXWD 040KT 30KT 170NM FORECAST 24HF 070000UTC 18.2N 141.0E 80NM 70% MOVE NW 13KT PRES 985HPA MXWD 050KT 48HF 080000UTC 22.0N 138.2E 150NM 70% MOVE NW 11KT PRES 975HPA MXWD 060KT 72HF 090000UTC 26.0N 134.9E 220NM 70% MOVE NW 12KT PRES 970HPA MXWD 065KT = ** WTPQ30 RJTD 060000 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING REASONING NO. 3 FOR TS 0607 MARIA (0607) 1.GENERAL COMMENTS REASONING OF PROGNOSIS THIS TIME IS SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS ONE. POSITION FORECAST IS MAINLY BASED ON NWP AND PERSISTENCY. 2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION NOTHING PARTICULAR TO EXPLAIN. 3.MOTION FORECAST POSITION ACCURACY AT 060000 UTC IS FAIR. TS WILL MOVE AT THE SAME SPEED FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS. TS WILL MOVE WEST-NORTHWEST EAST-SOUTHEAST. 4.INTENSITY FORECAST TS WILL BE GRADED UP TO STS WITHIN 24 HOURS. TS WILL DEVELOP BECAUSE CYCLONE WILL STAY IN HIGH SST AREA. FI-NUMBER WILL BE 3.5 AFTER 24 HOURS.= ** WTPQ81 PGUM 060125 *** HLSPQ1 GUZ001-002-003-004-060400- TROPICAL STORM SAOMAI LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU 1125 AM GUAM LST SUN AUG 6 2006 ...TROPICAL STORM SAOMAI NO LONGER A THREAT... ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT RECOMMENDS ACTIONS TO BE TAKEN BY RESIDENTS OF ROTA. ...WATCHES AND WARNINGS... THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR ROTA WAS CANCELED AT 11 AM GUAM LST. NO WATCHES OR WARNINGS ARE CURRENTLY IN EFFECT. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 1052 AM GUAM LST..0052Z..THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM SAOMAI WAS LOCATED BY RADAR NEAR LATITUDE 14.6 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 143.8 DEGREES EAST. THIS IS ABOUT 100 MILES NORTHWEST OF GUAM 100 MILES WEST-NORTHWEST OF ROTA 125 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF TINIAN 135 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF SAIPAN. TROPICAL STORM SAOMAI IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST AT 17 MPH WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF 50 MPH. ...ROTA... ROTA HAS BEEN PUT BACK INTO CONDITION OF READINESS 4. SMALL BOATS SHOULD REMAIN IN SAFE HAVEN UNTIL SEAS SUBSIDE. ...WIND INFORMATION... AS SAOMAI MOVES QUICKLY AWAY...WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHEAST AT 20 TO 30 MPH THIS AFTERNOON. ...STORM SURGE AND SURF INFORMATION... SURF WILL HAZARDOUS AT 7 TO 9 FEET THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. FOR MORE INFORMATION...SEE THE HIGH SURF ADVISORY ISSUED UNDER WMO HEADER WHMY40 PGUM. ...OTHER STORM EFFECTS... LESS THAN AN INCH OF ADDITIONAL RAIN IS EXPECTED TODAY. $$ MIDDLEBROOKE ** WTPQ22 RJTD 060000 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TD ANALYSIS PSTN 060000UTC 21.6N 131.7E POOR MOVE NW 10KT PRES 1002HPA MXWD 030KT FORECAST 24HF 070000UTC 22.3N 129.9E 150NM 70% MOVE WNW SLOWLY PRES 998HPA MXWD 035KT = ** WTPN31 PGTW 060300 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// REF/A/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN/PEARL HARBOR HI/060152ZAUG2006// AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL STORM 08W (SAOMAI) WARNING NR 006 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 060000Z --- NEAR 14.4N 144.1E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 310 DEGREES AT 17 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF SATELLITE AND RADAR PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 14.4N 144.1E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 061200Z --- 16.5N 141.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 13 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 070000Z --- 18.4N 140.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 13 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 071200Z --- 20.2N 138.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 12 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 080000Z --- 21.5N 135.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 12 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 090000Z --- 23.1N 131.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 13 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 100000Z --- 24.7N 125.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 13 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 110000Z --- 27.1N 120.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT --- REMARKS: 060300Z POSITION NEAR 14.9N 143.5E. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 08W (SAOMAI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 80 NM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF GUAM, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 17 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. CURRENT SATELLITE AND RADAR FIXES SHOW BETTER AGREEMENT THAN PREVIOUSLY INDICATED. BOTH SETS OF FIXES REVEAL THAT THE FORWARD SPEED OF TS 08W HAS INCREASED OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 060000Z IS 14 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 060900Z, 061500Z, 062100Z AND 070300Z. REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 09W (MARIA) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.// ** WTPQ31 RJTD 060000 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING REASONING NO. 2 FOR TS 0608 SAOMAI (0608) 1.GENERAL COMMENTS REASONING OF PROGNOSIS THIS TIME IS SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS ONE. POSITION FORECAST IS MAINLY BASED ON NWP AND PERSISTENCY. 2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION NOTHING PARTICULAR TO EXPLAIN. 3.MOTION FORECAST POSITION ACCURACY AT 060000 UTC IS FAIR. TS WILL MOVE AT THE SAME SPEED FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS. TS WILL MOVE NORTHWEST FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS. 4.INTENSITY FORECAST TS WILL BE GRADED UP TO STS WITHIN 24 HOURS. TS WILL DEVELOP BECAUSE CYCLONE WILL STAY IN HIGH SST AREA. FI-NUMBER WILL BE 3.5 AFTER 24 HOURS.= ** WTPQ32 RJTD 060000 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING REASONING NO. 1 FOR TD LOCATED AT 21.6N 131.7E 1.GENERAL COMMENTS POSITION FORECAST IS MAINLY BASED ON NWP AND PERSISTENCY. 2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION NOTHING PARTICULAR TO EXPLAIN. 3.MOTION FORECAST POSITION ACCURACY AT 060000 UTC IS POOR. TD WILL MOVE AT THE SAME SPEED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TD WILL MOVE WEST-NORTHWEST FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. 4.INTENSITY FORECAST TD WILL BE GRADED UP TO TS WITHIN 24 HOURS. TD WILL DEVELOP BECAUSE CYCLONE WILL STAY IN HIGH SST AREA. FI-NUMBER WILL BE 2.5 AFTER 24 HOURS.= ** WTPN32 PGTW 060300 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// REF/A/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/060151ZAUG2006// AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL STORM 09W (MARIA) WARNING NR 002 UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL DEPRESSION 09W 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 060000Z --- NEAR 26.8N 142.8E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 300 DEGREES AT 12 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER REPEAT POSIT: 26.8N 142.8E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 061200Z --- 28.0N 140.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 11 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 070000Z --- 29.1N 138.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 11 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 071200Z --- 30.4N 136.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 10 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 080000Z --- 31.6N 134.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 090000Z --- 33.9N 132.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 07 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 100000Z --- 36.5N 131.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: 060300Z POSITION NEAR 27.1N 142.3E. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 09W (MARIA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 150 NM NORTH-NORTHEAST OF IWO JIMA, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE MOST RECENT SATELLITE FIXES INDICATE THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION IS FURTHER NORTH THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. THIS HAS RESULTED IN A POLEWARD SHIFT TO THE FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 060000Z IS 14 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 060900Z, 061500Z, 062100Z AND 070300Z. REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 08W (SAOMAI) WARNING (WTPN31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.// ** WTPQ21 RJTD 060300 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TS 0607 MARIA (0607) ANALYSIS PSTN 060300UTC 27.3N 142.2E FAIR MOVE WNW 12KT PRES 985HPA MXWD 045KT 30KT 120NM FORECAST 24HF 070300UTC 29.4N 137.7E 80NM 70% MOVE WNW 11KT PRES 980HPA MXWD 055KT 45HF 080000UTC 30.7N 133.8E 150NM 70% MOVE WNW 10KT PRES 980HPA MXWD 055KT 69HF 090000UTC 32.0N 129.0E 220NM 70% MOVE W 10KT PRES 980HPA MXWD 055KT = ** WTJP32 RJTD 060300 *** WARNING 060300. WARNING VALID 070300. STORM WARNING. TROPICAL STORM 0607 MARIA (0607) 985 HPA AT 27.3N 142.2E NEAR CHICHIJIMA MOVING WESTNORTHWEST 12 KNOTS. POSITION FAIR. MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 120 MILES. FORECAST POSITION FOR 061500UTC AT 28.3N 140.1E WITH 60 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 980 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. FORECAST POSITION FOR 070300UTC AT 29.4N 137.7E WITH 80 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 980 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTJP31 RJTD 060300 *** WARNING 060300. WARNING VALID 070300. STORM WARNING. TROPICAL STORM 0608 SAOMAI (0608) 996 HPA AT 14.4N 143.6E MARIANAS MOVING NORTHWEST 13 KNOTS. POSITION FAIR. MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 170 MILES. FORECAST POSITION FOR 070300UTC AT 18.7N 140.2E WITH 80 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 985 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 060300 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TS 0608 SAOMAI (0608) ANALYSIS PSTN 060300UTC 14.4N 143.6E FAIR MOVE NW 13KT PRES 996HPA MXWD 040KT 30KT 170NM FORECAST 24HF 070300UTC 18.7N 140.2E 80NM 70% MOVE NW 13KT PRES 985HPA MXWD 050KT 45HF 080000UTC 22.0N 138.2E 150NM 70% MOVE NW 11KT PRES 975HPA MXWD 060KT 69HF 090000UTC 26.0N 134.9E 220NM 70% MOVE NW 12KT PRES 970HPA MXWD 065KT = ** WTPQ22 RJTD 060300 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TD ANALYSIS PSTN 060300UTC 21.8N 131.4E POOR MOVE NW 13KT PRES 1002HPA MXWD 030KT FORECAST 24HF 070300UTC 22.3N 129.6E 150NM 70% MOVE W SLOWLY PRES 998HPA MXWD 035KT = ** WTPQ31 PGUM 060435 *** TCPPQ1 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM SAOMAI ADVISORY NUMBER 6 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU 200 PM GUAM LST SUN AUG 6 2006 ...TROPICAL STORM SAOMAI MOVING QUICKLY AWAY FROM THE MARIANAS... NO WATCHES OR WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT. AT 1 PM GUAM LST..0300Z..THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM SAOMAI WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.9 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 143.5 DEGREES EAST. THIS IS ABOUT 130 MILES NORTHWEST OF GUAM 125 MILES WEST-NORTHWEST OF ROTA 140 MILES WEST OF TINIAN 150 MILES WEST OF SAIPAN. TROPICAL STORM SAOMAI IS MOVING NORTHWEST AT 20 MPH. THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 50 MPH. TROPICAL STORM SAOMAI IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY SLOWLY OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS OF 39 MPH OR MORE EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES FROM THE CENTER IN THE NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 20 MILES ELSEWHERE. REPEATING THE 1 PM POSITION...14.9 DEGREES NORTH AND 143.5 DEGREES EAST...MOVING NORTHWEST AT 20 MPH WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF 50 MPH. THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AT 8 PM GUAM LST. $$ MIDDLEBROOKE ** WTNT80 EGRR 060508 *** MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 06.08.2006 NO TROPICAL STORMS ARE ANALYSED OR FORECAST TO DEVELOP IN THE AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 3 DAYS THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 060508 ** WTPH RPMM 060000 *** TTT WARNING 03 AT 0000 06 AUGUST TROP DEP WAS ESTMD BASED ON SATELLITE AND SURFACE DATA AT TWO ONE POINT THREE NROTH ONE THREE ONE POINT THREE EAST MVNG WEST NORTHWEST AT ZERO TWO METERS PER SECOND MODERTE TO ROUGH SEAS WITHIN TWO ZERO ZERO KILOMETERS RADIUS FROM CENTER ESTMD CENTRAL PRESSURE ONE ZERO ZERO ZERO HECTOPASCALS MAX WNDS ONE FIVE METERS PER SECOND NEAR CENTER FORECAST POSITIONS AT 070000 TWO TWO POINT FOUR NORTH ONE TWO NINE POINT FOUR EAST AT 080000 TWO THREE INT EIGHT NORTH ONE TWO SEVEN POINT SEVEN EAST AND AT 090000 TWO FIVE POINT TWO NORTH ONE TWO FIVE POINT NINE EAST ALL SHIPS WITHIN DEP AREA ARE REQUESTED TO SEND THREE HOURLY WEATHER REPORTS TO WEATHER MANILA PD