** WTPQ51 PGUM 051207 *** TCEPQ1 TROPICAL STORM 08W POSITION ESTIMATE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GUAM 1000 PM GUAM LST SAT AUG 5 2005 AT 955 PM GUAM LST...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM 08W WAS LOCATED BY RADAR NEAR LATITUDE 12.3 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 146.6 DEGREES EAST. THIS IS ABOUT 150 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF GUAM...155 SOUTHEAST OF ROTA...200 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF TINIAN AND SAIPAN. $$ ZIOBRO ** WTSR20 WSSS 050600 *** NO STORM WARNING= ** WTJP22 RJTD 051200 *** WARNING 051200. WARNING VALID 061200. WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS. GALE WARNING. TROPICAL STORM 0607 MARIA (0607) UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL DEPRESSION 998 HPA AT 26.0N 145.4E EASTSOUTHEAST OF CHICHIJIMA MOVING WESTNORTHWEST 09 KNOTS. POSITION FAIR. MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 100 MILES. FORECAST POSITION FOR 060000UTC AT 26.2N 143.1E WITH 60 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 996 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. FORECAST POSITION FOR 061200UTC AT 26.4N 140.4E WITH 80 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 990 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. FORECAST POSITION FOR 071200UTC AT 27.3N 135.8E WITH 150 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 985 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. FORECAST POSITION FOR 081200UTC AT 28.0N 130.0E WITH 220 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 980 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ21 RJTD 051200 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TS 0607 MARIA (0607) UPGRADED FROM TD ANALYSIS PSTN 051200UTC 26.0N 145.4E FAIR MOVE WNW 09KT PRES 998HPA MXWD 035KT 30KT 100NM FORECAST 24HF 061200UTC 26.4N 140.4E 80NM 70% MOVE W 11KT PRES 990HPA MXWD 045KT 48HF 071200UTC 27.3N 135.8E 150NM 70% MOVE W 10KT PRES 985HPA MXWD 050KT 72HF 081200UTC 28.0N 130.0E 220NM 70% MOVE W 12KT PRES 980HPA MXWD 055KT = ** WTPQ51 PGUM 051303 *** TCEPQ1 TROPICAL STORM 08W POSITION ESTIMATE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GUAM 1100 PM GUAM LST SAT AUG 5 2005 AT 1055 PM GUAM LST...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM 08W WAS LOCATED BY RADAR NEAR LATITUDE 12.3 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 146.3 DEGREES EAST. THIS IS ABOUT 130 MILES SOUTHEAST OF GUAM...145 SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF ROTA...190 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF TINIAN AND 195 MILES SOUTH OF SAIPAN. $$ ZIOBRO ** WTPQ51 PGUM 051309 CCA *** TCEPQ1 TROPICAL STORM 08W POSITION ESTIMATE...CORRECTION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GUAM 1100 PM GUAM LST SAT AUG 5 2006 CORRECTED YEAR AT 1055 PM GUAM LST...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM 08W WAS LOCATED BY RADAR NEAR LATITUDE 12.3 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 146.3 DEGREES EAST. THIS IS ABOUT 130 MILES SOUTHEAST OF GUAM...145 SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF ROTA...190 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF TINIAN AND 195 MILES SOUTH OF SAIPAN. $$ ZIOBRO ** WTPQ31 PGUM 051316 *** TCPPQ1 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM 08W INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 3A NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU 1100 PM GUAM LST SAT AUG 5 2006 ...TROPICAL STORM 08W CONTINUES TO MOVE TOWARD THE MARIANAS... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR GUAM...ROTA...TINIAN AND SAIPAN IN THE MARIANA ISLANDS. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS OF 39 MPH OR MORE ARE EXPECTED WITHIN 24 HOURS. AT 11 PM GUAM LST...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM 08W WAS LOCATED BY RADAR NEAR LATITUDE 12.3 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 146.3 DEGREES EAST. THIS IS ABOUT 130 MILES SOUTHEAST OF GUAM 145 SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF ROTA 190 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF TINIAN 195 MILES SOUTH OF SAIPAN. TROPICAL STORM 08W IS MOVING NORTHWEST AT 15 MPH...AND THIS IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE SLIGHTLY OVER THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. ON ITS CURRENT FORECAST TRACK...TROPICAL STORM 08W WOULD PASS CLOSE TO ROTA LATE SUNDAY MORNING. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 40 MPH. TROPICAL STORM 08W IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS SHOULD BE COMPLETED AS SOON AS POSSIBLE. REPEATING THE 11 PM POSITION...12.3 DEGREES NORTH AND 146.3 DEGREES EAST...MOVING NORTHWEST AT 15 MPH WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF 40 MPH. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AT 2 AM SUNDAY MORNING...FOLLOWED BY AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY AT 5 AM. $$ ZIOBRO ** WTKO20 RKSL 051200 *** KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 1 NAME TS 0607 MARIA ANALYSIS POSITION 051200UTC 26.0N 145.4E MOVEMENT WNW 9KT PRES/VMAX 998HPA 33KT FORECAST 24HR POSITION 061200UTC 26.3N 141.2E WITHIN 80NM PRES/VMAX 990HPA 45KT 48HR POSITION 071200UTC 26.9N 136.8E WITHIN 135NM PRES/VMAX 980HPA 58KT 72HR POSITION 081200UTC 28.0N 131.3E WITHIN 215NM PRES/VMAX 970HPA 68KT KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION. ** WTJP21 RJTD 051200 *** WARNING 051200. WARNING VALID 061200. WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS. GALE WARNING. TROPICAL STORM 0608 SAOMAI (0608) UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL DEPRESSION 998 HPA AT 11.7N 146.5E MARIANAS MOVING NORTHWEST 15 KNOTS. POSITION FAIR. MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 150 MILES. FORECAST POSITION FOR 061200UTC AT 18.0N 145.0E WITH 80 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 990 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. FORECAST POSITION FOR 071200UTC AT 22.9N 142.5E WITH 150 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 985 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. FORECAST POSITION FOR 081200UTC AT 26.0N 137.8E WITH 220 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 980 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 051200 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TS 0608 SAOMAI (0608) UPGRADED FROM TD ANALYSIS PSTN 051200UTC 11.7N 146.5E FAIR MOVE NW 15KT PRES 998HPA MXWD 035KT 30KT 150NM FORECAST 24HF 061200UTC 18.0N 145.0E 80NM 70% MOVE NNW 16KT PRES 990HPA MXWD 045KT 48HF 071200UTC 22.9N 142.5E 150NM 70% MOVE NNW 13KT PRES 985HPA MXWD 050KT 72HF 081200UTC 26.0N 137.8E 220NM 70% MOVE WNW 13KT PRES 980HPA MXWD 055KT = ** WTPQ20 BABJ 051200 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TS MARIA 0607 (0607) INITIAL TIME 051200 UTC 00HR 25.9N 145.3E 998HPA 18M/S 30KTS 150KM P12HR WNW 20KM/H P+24HR 26.9N 140.5E 990HPA 23M/S P+48HR 27.8N 135.5E 985HPA 25M/S P+72HR 29.0N 130.0E 980HPA 30M/S= ** WTPQ31 PGUM 051401 *** TCPPQ1 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM 08W INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 3B NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU 1200 AM GUAM LST SUN AUG 6 2006 ...TROPICAL STORM 08W CONTINUES MOVING TOWARD THE MARIANAS... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR GUAM...ROTA...TINIAN AND SAIPAN IN THE MARIANA ISLANDS. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS OF 39 MPH OR MORE ARE EXPECTED WITHIN 24 HOURS. AT 1150 PM GUAM LST SATURDAY...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM 08W WAS LOCATED BY RADAR NEAR LATITUDE 12.4 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 146.3 DEGREES EAST. THIS IS ABOUT 125 MILES SOUTHEAST OF GUAM 140 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF ROTA 185 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF TINIAN 190 MILES SOUTH OF SAIPAN. TROPICAL STORM 08W IS MOVING NORTHWEST AT 15 MPH. THE FORWARDING SPEED IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE SLIGHTLY OVER THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. ON ITS CURRENT FORECAST TRACK...TROPICAL STORM 08W WOULD PASS CLOSE TO ROTA LATE THIS SUNDAY MORNING. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 40 MPH. TROPICAL STORM 08W IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS SHOULD BE COMPLETED AS SOON AS POSSIBLE. REPEATING THE 1150 PM SATURDAY POSITION...12.4 DEGREES NORTH AND 146.3 DEGREES EAST...MOVING NORTHWEST AT 15 MPH WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF 40 MPH. THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AT 2 AM GUAM LST...FOLLOWED BY AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY AT 4 AM GUAM LST. $$ AHN ** WTPQ51 PGUM 051416 *** TCEPQ1 TROPICAL STORM SAOMAI POSITION ESTIMATE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GUAM 1216 AM GUAM LST SUN AUG 6 2006 AT 1204 AM GUAM LST...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM SAOMAI /08W/ WAS LOCATED BY RADAR NEAR LATITUDE 12.6 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 146.3 DEGREES EAST. THIS IS ABOUT 120 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF GUAM...125 SOUTHEAST OF ROTA...170 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF TINIAN AND 180 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF SAIPAN. $$ STANKO ** WTPQ20 BABJ 051200 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TS SAOMAI 0608 (0608) INITIAL TIME 051200 UTC 00HR 11.9N 146.4E 998HPA 18M/S 30KTS 280KM P12HR NW 20KM/H P+24HR 16.0N 143.4E 990HPA 23M/S P+48HR 19.8N 140.2E 985HPA 28M/S P+72HR 23.5N 137.0E 975HPA 33M/S= ** WTKO20 RKSL 051200 *** KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 1 NAME TS 0608 SAOMAI ANALYSIS POSITION 051200UTC 11.7N 146.5E MOVEMENT NW 15KT PRES/VMAX 998HPA 33KT FORECAST 24HR POSITION 061200UTC 16.1N 144.6E WITHIN 80NM PRES/VMAX 990HPA 45KT 48HR POSITION 071200UTC 19.4N 141.9E WITHIN 135NM PRES/VMAX 985HPA 52KT 72HR POSITION 081200UTC 22.3N 138.5E WITHIN 215NM PRES/VMAX 980HPA 58KT KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION. ** WTPQ51 PGUM 051458 *** TCEPQ1 TROPICAL STORM SAOMAI POSITION ESTIMATE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GUAM 1258 AM GUAM LST SUN AUG 6 2006 AT 1249 AM GUAM LST...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM SAOMAI /08W/ WAS LOCATED BY RADAR NEAR LATITUDE 12.7 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 146.2 DEGREES EAST. THIS IS ABOUT 110 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF GUAM...120 SOUTHEAST OF ROTA...165 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF TINIAN AND 170 MILES SOUTH OF SAIPAN. $$ STANKO ** WTPN31 PGTW 051500 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL STORM 08W (SAOMAI) WARNING NR 004 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 051200Z --- NEAR 12.1N 146.7E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 325 DEGREES AT 11 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT REPEAT POSIT: 12.1N 146.7E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 060000Z --- 14.0N 145.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 11 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 061200Z --- 15.8N 143.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 12 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 070000Z --- 17.5N 142.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 12 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 071200Z --- 18.8N 139.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 12 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 081200Z --- 20.9N 135.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 10 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 091200Z --- 22.0N 131.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 101200Z --- 22.6N 127.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT --- REMARKS: 051500Z POSITION NEAR 12.6N 146.4E. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 08W (SAOMAI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 135 NM SOUTHEAST OF GUAM, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE MAIN BODY OF CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE STORM REMAINS RATHER DISORGANIZED WHILE LIFTING POLEWARD, AND SATELLITE POSITION ESTIMATES ARE POOR GIVEN THE LACK OF A WELL-DEFINED CONVECTIVE SIGNATURE NEAR THE CIRCULATION CENTER. THE INITIAL POSITION IS THEREFORE WEIGHTED TOWARD CONTINUITY BASED ON PREVIOUS STORM MOTION. EARLY RADAR POSITION ESTIMATES FROM GUAM PLACE THE SYSTEM CENTER A BIT MORE POLEWARD THAN THE AVAILABLE SATELLITE FIXES. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 051200Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 052100Z, 060300Z, 060900Z AND 061500Z.// ** WTPQ81 PGUM 051524 *** HLSPQ1 GUZ001-002-003-004-051700- TROPICAL STORM SAOMAI LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU 100 AM GUAM LST SUN AUG 6 2006 ...TROPICAL STORM SAOMAI CONTINUES HEADING TO THE MARIANAS... ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT RECOMMENDS ACTIONS TO BE TAKEN BY RESIDENTS OF THE MARIANA ISLANDS. ...WATCHES AND WARNINGS... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR GUAM...ROTA...TINIAN AND SAIPAN. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS OF 39 MPH OR MORE ARE EXPECTED WITHIN 12 HOURS. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 1250 AM GUAM LST...1450Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM SAOMAI WAS LOCATED BY RADAR NEAR LATITUDE 12.7 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 146.2 DEGREES EAST. THIS IS ABOUT 110 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF GUAM 120 MILES SOUTHEAST OF ROTA 165 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF TINIAN 170 MILES SOUTH OF SAIPAN. TROPICAL STORM SAOMAI IS MOVING NORTHWEST AT 13 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 40 MPH. ...GUAM..ROTA..TINIAN AND SAIPAN... REVIEW YOUR DISASTER PREPAREDNESS PLAN AND CHECK EMERGENCY SUPPLIES OF FOOD AND WATER. SECURE OUTSIDE FURNITURE AND OTHER LOOSE OBJECTS IN YOUR YARD. FILL YOUR VEHICLES WITH GAS. GATHER CONTAINERS FOR DRINKING WATER STORAGE AND PREPARE YOUR BATHTUB FOR WATER STORAGE. RESIDENTS OF GUAM SHOULD REMEMBER THAT HEAVY RAIN MAY AFFECT WATER PRESSURE IN SOUTHERN GUAM DUE TO SILT IN FENA RESERVOIR. CHECK SUPPLIES OF PRESCRIPTION DRUGS. MOVE SMALL BOATS TO SAFE HAVEN. BEAR IN MIND THAT TROPICAL STORM SAOMAI IS FORECAST TO PASS ROTA CHANNEL THIS SUNDAY MORNING. PREPARATIONS FOR DAMAGING WINDS SHOULD BE COMPLETED AT THIS TIME. AT 12 MIDNIGHT SUNDAY...GOVERNOR FELIX CAMACHO DECLARED GUAM IN CONDITION OF READINESS 1. GOVERNOR FITIAL IN THE CNMI HAS PLACED ROTA IN TROPICAL STORM CONDITION 2...TINIAN AND SAIPAN IN TROPICAL STORM CONDITION 3. ...WIND INFORMATION... TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT. BE PREPARED FOR MAXIMUM WINDS OF 50 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ...STORM SURGE AND SURF INFORMATION... SURF WILL LIKELY BECOME HAZARDOUS AT 9 TO 12 FEET TODAY...AND CONTINUE AT HAZARDOUS LEVELS MONDAY AND TUESDAY. ...OTHER STORM EFFECTS... RAINFALL OF 6 INCHES OR MORE IS POSSIBLE THROUGH MONDAY. LOCAL FLOODING IS POSSIBLE. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY 3 AM GUAM LST. $$ AHN ** WTPH20 RPMM 051200 *** T T T WARNING 01 AT 1200 05 AUGUST TROPICAL DEPRESSION WAS ESTIMATED BASED ON SATELLITE AND SURFACE DATA AT TWO ZERO POINT FIVE NORTH ONE THREE TWO POINT TWO EAST MOVING WEST NORTHWEST AT ZERO FOUR METERS PER SECOND MODERATE TO ROUGH SEAS WITHIN TWO ZERO ZERO KILOMETERS RADIUS FROM CENTER ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE ONE ZERO ZERO ZERO HECTOPASCALS MAXIMUM WINDS ONE FIVE METERS PER SECOND NEAR CENTER FORECAST POSITIONS AT 061200 TWO TWO POINT FOUR NORTH ONE TWO EIGHT POINT SEVEN EAST AND AT 071200 TWO FIVE POINT FIVE NORTH ONE TWO SIX POINT TWO EAST ALL SHIPS WITHIN DEPRESSION AREA ARE REQUESTED TO SEND THREE HOURLY WEATHER REPORTS TO WEATHER MANILA PD WEATHER MANILA= ** WTPQ21 RJTD 051500 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TS 0607 MARIA (0607) ANALYSIS PSTN 051500UTC 26.1N 144.5E FAIR MOVE W 12KT PRES 998HPA MXWD 035KT 30KT 100NM FORECAST 24HF 061500UTC 26.9N 139.8E 80NM 70% MOVE W 10KT PRES 990HPA MXWD 045KT 45HF 071200UTC 27.3N 135.8E 150NM 70% MOVE W 10KT PRES 985HPA MXWD 050KT 69HF 081200UTC 28.0N 130.0E 220NM 70% MOVE W 12KT PRES 980HPA MXWD 055KT = ** WTPQ20 RJTD 051500 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TS 0608 SAOMAI (0608) ANALYSIS PSTN 051500UTC 12.1N 146.0E FAIR MOVE WNW 10KT PRES 998HPA MXWD 035KT 30KT 150NM FORECAST 24HF 061500UTC 17.6N 144.5E 80NM 70% MOVE NNW 14KT PRES 990HPA MXWD 045KT 45HF 071200UTC 22.9N 142.5E 150NM 70% MOVE NNW 13KT PRES 985HPA MXWD 050KT 69HF 081200UTC 26.0N 137.8E 220NM 70% MOVE WNW 13KT PRES 980HPA MXWD 055KT = ** WTPQ51 PGUM 051602 *** TCEPQ1 TROPICAL STORM SAOMAI POSITION ESTIMATE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GUAM 200 AM GUAM LST SUN AUG 6 2006 AT 155 AM GUAM LST...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM SAOMAI /08W/ WAS LOCATED BY RADAR NEAR LATITUDE 12.8 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 146.1 DEGREES EAST. THIS IS ABOUT 100 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF GUAM...110 MILES SOUTHEAST OF ROTA...155 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF TINIAN AND 160 MILES SOUTH OF SAIPAN. $$ STANKO ** WTPQ31 PGUM 051603 *** TCPPQ1 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM SAOMAI ADVISORY NUMBER 4 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU 200 AM GUAM LST SUN AUG 6 2006 ...TROPICAL STORM SAOMAI CONTINUES HEADING TO THE MARIANAS... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR GUAM...ROTA...TINIAN AND SAIPAN IN THE MARIANA ISLANDS. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS OF 39 MPH OR MORE ARE EXPECTED WITHIN 12 HOURS. AT 150 AM GUAM LST...1550Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM SAOMAI WAS LOCATED BY RADAR NEAR LATITUDE 12.8 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 146.1 DEGREES EAST. THIS IS ABOUT 100 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF GUAM 110 MILES SOUTHEAST OF ROTA 155 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF TINIAN 160 MILES SOUTH OF SAIPAN. TROPICAL STORM SAOMAI IS MOVING NORTHWEST AT 13 MPH. THE FORWARDING SPEED IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE SLIGHTLY OVER THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. ON ITS CURRENT FORECAST TRACK...TROPICAL STORM SAOMAI WOULD PASS CLOSE TO ROTA THIS MORNING. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 40 MPH. TROPICAL STORM SAOMAI IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS SHOULD BE COMPLETED AT THIS TIME. REPEATING THE 150 AM POSITION...12.8 DEGREES NORTH AND 146.1 DEGREES EAST...MOVING NORTHWEST AT 13 MPH WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF 40 MPH. INTERMEDIATE ADVISORIES WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AT 4 AM AND 6 AM GUAM LST...FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY AT 6 AM GUAM LST. $$ AHN ** WTPN22 PGTW 051630 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT/051622ZAUG2006// RMKS/ 1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN 150 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 25.8N 145.8E TO 28.0N 139.1E WITHIN THE NEXT 06 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 051200Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 26.0N 145.2E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS. 2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED 24.5N 147.9E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 26.0N 145.2E, APPROXIMATELY 225 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF IWO JIMA. RECENT ANIMATED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A DRAMATIC FLARE IN DEEP CONVECTION SLIGHTLY EAST OF A WELL-DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. FURTHER SATELLITE ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT DESPITE THIS INCREASE IN CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION THIS SYSTEM STILL EXHIBITS CHARACTERISTICS OF A SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND FAVORABLE DIFFLUENCE ALOFT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. WITH THE RECENT INCREASE IN CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO GOOD. 3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 061622Z.// ** WTPQ51 PGUM 051659 *** TCEPQ1 TROPICAL STORM SAOMAI POSITION ESTIMATE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GUAM 300 AM GUAM LST SUN AUG 6 2006 AT 256 AM GUAM LST...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM SAOMAI /08W/ WAS LOCATED BY RADAR NEAR LATITUDE 13.3 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 145.5 DEGREES EAST. THIS IS ABOUT 50 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF GUAM...60 MILES SOUTH- SOUTHEAST OF ROTA...120 MILES SOUTH OF TINIAN AND 125 MILES SOUTH OF SAIPAN. $$ STANKO ** WTPQ51 PGUM 051700 *** TCEPQ1 TROPICAL STORM SAOMAI POSITION ESTIMATE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GUAM 300 AM GUAM LST SUN AUG 6 2006 AT 256 AM GUAM LST...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM SAOMAI /08W/ WAS LOCATED BY RADAR NEAR LATITUDE 13.3 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 145.5 DEGREES EAST. THIS IS ABOUT 50 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF GUAM...60 MILES SOUTH- SOUTHEAST OF ROTA...120 MILES SOUTH OF TINIAN AND 125 MILES SOUTH OF SAIPAN. $$ STANKO ** WTPQ81 PGUM 051705 *** HLSPQ1 GUZ001-002-003-004-051900- TROPICAL STORM SAOMAI LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU 300 AM GUAM LST SUN AUG 6 2006 ...TROPICAL STORM SAOMAI SLOWLY INTENSIFYING... ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT RECOMMENDS ACTIONS TO BE TAKEN BY RESIDENTS OF THE MARIANA ISLANDS. ...WATCHES AND WARNINGS... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR GUAM...ROTA...TINIAN AND SAIPAN. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS OF 39 MPH OR MORE ARE EXPECTED WITHIN 12 HOURS. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 250 AM GUAM LST...1650Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM SAOMAI WAS LOCATED BY RADAR NEAR LATITUDE 13.3 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 145.5 DEGREES EAST. THIS IS ABOUT 50 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF GUAM 60 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF ROTA 120 MILES SOUTH OF TINIAN 125 MILES SOUTH OF SAIPAN. TROPICAL STORM SAOMAI IS MOVING NORTHWEST AT 13 MPH WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF 40 MPH. ...GUAM..ROTA..TINIAN AND SAIPAN... KEEP OUTSIDE FURNITURE AND OTHER LOOSE OBJECTS SECURED. FILL YOUR VEHICLES WITH GAS. GATHER CONTAINERS FOR DRINKING WATER STORAGE AND PREPARE YOUR BATHTUB FOR WATER STORAGE. RESIDENTS OF GUAM SHOULD REMEMBER THAT HEAVY RAIN MAY AFFECT WATER PRESSURE IN SOUTHERN GUAM DUE TO SILT IN FENA RESERVOIR. CHECK SUPPLIES OF PRESCRIPTION DRUGS. MOVE SMALL BOATS TO SAFE HAVEN. TROPICAL STORM SAOMAI IS FORECAST TO PASS VERY CLOSE TO ROTA THIS SUNDAY MORNING. PREPARATIONS FOR DAMAGING WINDS SHOULD BE COMPLETED AT THIS TIME. AT 12 MIDNIGHT SUNDAY...GOVERNOR FELIX CAMACHO DECLARED GUAM IN CONDITION OF READINESS 1. AT 150 AM...GOVERNOR FITIAL IN THE CNMI PLACED ROTA IN TROPICAL STORM CONDITION 1...AND MAINTAINED TROPICAL STORM CONDITION 3 FOR TINIAN AND SAIPAN. ...WIND INFORMATION... TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT. BE PREPARED FOR MAXIMUM WINDS OF 50 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ...STORM SURGE AND SURF INFORMATION... SURF WILL LIKELY BECOME HAZARDOUS AT 9 TO 12 FEET TODAY...AND CONTINUE AT HAZARDOUS LEVELS MONDAY AND TUESDAY. ...OTHER STORM EFFECTS... RAINFALL OF 6 INCHES OR MORE IS POSSIBLE THROUGH MONDAY. LOCAL FLOODING IS LIKELY TO OCCUR. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY 5 AM GUAM LST. $$ AHN ** WTNT80 EGRR 051706 *** MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 05.08.2006 EX-TROPICAL DEPRESSION CHRIS ANALYSED POSITION : 21.9N 76.1W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL032006 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 05.08.2006 21.9N 76.1W WEAK 00UTC 06.08.2006 21.0N 79.2W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 06.08.2006 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 051706 ** WTPQ51 PGUM 051758 *** TCEPQ1 TROPICAL STORM SAOMAI POSITION ESTIMATE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GUAM 400 AM GUAM LST SUN AUG 6 2006 AT 351 AM GUAM LST...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM SAOMAI /08W/ WAS LOCATED BY RADAR NEAR LATITUDE 13.4 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 145.4 DEGREES EAST. THIS IS ABOUT 45 MILES EAST OF GUAM...50 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF ROTA...110 MILES SOUTH OF TINIAN AND 120 MILES SOUTH OF SAIPAN. $$ STANKO