** WTSR20 WSSS 041800 *** NO STORM WARNING= ** WTCA43 TJSJ 050025 *** TCPSP3 BOLETIN TORMENTA TROPICAL CHRIS ADVERTENCIA INTERMEDIA NUMERO 17A NWS TCP/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL AL032006 800 PM AST VIERNES 4 DE AGOSTO DE 2006 ...CHRIS PASANDO A TRAVES DEL SURESTE DE LAS BAHAMAS... CONTINUA EN EFECTO UNA VIGILANCIA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL PARA LONG ISLAND Y EXUMAS EN LAS BAHAMAS CENTRALES. UNA VIGILANCIA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SIGNIFICA QUE SON POSIBLES ESTAS CONDICIONES DE TORMENTA TROPICAL DENTRO DEL AREA DE LA VIGILANCIA GENERALMENTE DENTRO DE 36 HORAS. INTERESES EN CUBA...AL IGUAL QUE EN EL SUR DE LA FLORIDA Y LOS CAYOS DE LA FLORIDA...DEBEN SEGUIR DE CERCA EL PROGRESO DE CHRIS. PARA INFORMACION ESPECIFICA PARA SU AREA...INCLUYENDO POSIBLES VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS PARA AREAS TERRESTRES...FAVOR DE REFERIRSE A LOS PRODUCTOS EMITIDOS POR SU OFICINA METEOROLOGICA LOCAL. A LAS 800 PM AST...0000Z...EL AMPLIO Y POBREMENTE DEFINIDO CENTRO DE LA DEPRESION TROPICAL CHRIS ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 21.5 NORTE...LONGITUD 73.4 OESTE O COMO A 20 MILLAS...30 KM...AL NORTE DE LA ISLA GREAT INAGUA Y COMO A 285 MILLAS...460 KM...AL ESTE DE CAMAGUEY CUBA. LA DEPRESION SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL OESTE A CERCA DE 13 MPH...20 KILOMETROS POR HORA...Y ESTE MOVIMIENTO GENERAL SE ESPERA QUE CONTINUE POR LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. ESTE MOVIMIENTO DEBE DE TRAER EL CENTRO DE CHRIS A TRAVES DEL SURESTE DE LAS BAHAMAS ESTA NOCHE Y CERCA DEL SURESTE DE LAS BAHAMAS ESTA NOCHE Y CERCA DE LA COSTA NORTE DE CUBA EL SABADO. LOS VIENTOS SOSTENIDOS ESTAN EN CERCA DE 35 MPH...55 KM/HR...CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. SE ESPERAR POCOS CAMBIOS EN FORTALECE DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. SIN EMBARGO...CUALQUIER REINTENSIFICACION PUEDE DESARROLLAR A CHRIS NUEVAMENTE A TORMENTA TROPICAL. LA PRESION MINIMA CENTRAL ESTIMADA ES DE 1011 MB...29.85 PULGADAS. SE ESPERA QUE CHRIS PRODUZCA ACUMULACIONES TOTALES DE LLUVIA DE 1 A 2 PULGADAS A TRAVES DE LA REPUBLICA DOMINICANA...LAS ISLAS TURKS Y CAICOS...EL SURESTE DE LAS BAHAMAS...HAITI Y EL ESTE DE CUBA...CON TOTALES AISLADOS DE HASTA 4 PULGADAS EN TERRENOS MAS ALTOS HASTA EL SABADO. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 8 PM AST...21.5 NORTE...73.4 OESTE. MOVIMIENTO HACIA...EL OESTE A CERCA DE 13 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS...35 MPH. PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA...1011 MILIBARAS. LA PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 1100 PM AST. $$ PRONOSTICADOR BLAKE/KNABB ** WTPQ20 RJTD 050000 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TD DOWNGRADED FROM TS 0606 PRAPIROON (0606) ANALYSIS PSTN 050000UTC 24N 107E MOVE W 10KT PRES 998HPA = ** WTPQ31 PGUM 050104 *** TCPPQ1 BULLETIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION 08W SPECIAL ADVISORY NUMBER 1A NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU 1100 AM GUAM LST SAT AUG 5 2006 ...TROPICAL DEPRESSION 08W MOVING NORTHWEST TOWARD THE MARIANAS... AS OF 11 AM GUAM LST...A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR GUAM..ROTA..TINIAN AND SAIPAN IN THE MARIANA ISLANDS. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS OF 39 MPH OR MORE ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 48 HOURS. AT 10 AM GUAM LST...0000Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION 08W WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 9.8 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 148.7 DEGREES EAST. THIS IS ABOUT 105 MILES NORTHWEST OF ULUL 365 MILES SOUTHEAST OF GUAM 380 MILES SOUTHEAST OF ROTA 415 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF TINIAN 420 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF SAIPAN. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 08W IS MOVING NORTHWEST AT 12 MPH. THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 35 MPH. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 08W IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS...AND MAY BECOME A TROPICAL STORM BY TONIGHT. REPEATING THE 10 AM POSITION...9.8 DEGREES NORTH AND 148.7 DEGREES EAST...MOVING NORTHWEST AT 12 MPH WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF 35 MPH. THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AT 2 PM GUAM LST...FOLLOWED BY AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY AT 5 PM. $$ MIDDLEBROOKE ** WTKO20 RKSL 050000 *** KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 9 NAME TD 0606 PRAPIROON ANALYSIS POSITION 050000UTC 24.0N 107.0E MOVEMENT W 10KT PRES 998HPA KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION. ** WTPQ21 RJTD 050000 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TD ANALYSIS PSTN 050000UTC 24.7N 147.0E FAIR MOVE WNW 14KT PRES 1000HPA MXWD 030KT FORECAST 24HF 060000UTC 26.0N 142.5E 150NM 70% MOVE W 10KT PRES 996HPA MXWD 035KT = ** WTPQ81 PGUM 050129 *** HLSPQ1 GUZ001-002-003-004-050500- TROPICAL DEPRESSION 08W LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU 1130 AM GUAM LST SAT AUG 5 2006 ...TROPICAL DEPRESSION 08W IS MOVING TOWARD THE MARIANA ISLANDS... ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT RECOMMENDS ACTIONS TO BE TAKEN BY RESIDENTS OF THE MARIANA ISLANDS. ...WATCHES AND WARNINGS... AT 11 AM GUAM LST...A TROPICAL STORM WATCH WAS ISSUED FOR GUAM... ROTA...TINIAN AND SAIPAN. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS OF 39 MPH OR MORE ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 48 HOURS. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 10 AM GUAM LST...0000Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION 08W WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 9.8 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 148.7 DEGREES EAST. THIS IS ABOUT 105 MILES NORTHWEST OF ULUL 365 MILES SOUTHEAST OF GUAM 380 MILES SOUTHEAST OF ROTA 415 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF TINIAN 420 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF SAIPAN. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 08W IS MOVING NORTHWEST AT 12 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 35 MPH. ...GUAM..ROTA..TINIAN AND SAIPAN... REVIEW YOUR DISASTER PREPAREDNESS PLAN AND CHECK YOUR EMERGENCY SUPPLIES OF FOOD AND WATER. SECURE OUTSIDE FURNITURE AND OTHER LOOSE OBJECTS IN YOUR YARD. FILL YOUR VEHICLES WITH GAS. GATHER CONTAINERS FOR DRINKING WATER STORAGE AND CLEAN YOUR BATHTUB FOR WATER STORAGE. RESIDENTS OF GUAM SHOULD REMEMBER THAT HEAVY RAIN MAY AFFECT WATER PRESSURE IN SOUTHERN GUAM DUE TO SILT IN FENA RESERVOIR. CHECK SUPPLIES OF PRESCRIPTION DRUGS. MOVE SMALL BOATS TO SAFE HAVEN. ...WIND INFORMATION... TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. BE PREPARED FOR MAXIMUM WINDS OF 60 MPH OR HIGHER. ...STORM SURGE AND SURF INFORMATION... SURF WILL LIKELY BECOME HAZARDOUS AT 9 FEET OR MORE BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON...AND CONTINUE AT HAZARDOUS LEVELS MONDAY AND TUESDAY. ...OTHER STORM EFFECTS... RAINFALL OF 6 INCHES OR MORE IS POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. LOCAL FLOODING IS POSSIBLE. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY 3 PM GUAM LST. $$ MIDDLEBROOKE ** WTNT33 KNHC 050230 *** TCPAT3 BULLETIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION CHRIS ADVISORY NUMBER 18 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032006 1100 PM AST FRI AUG 04 2006 ...CHRIS WEAKENS FURTHER AS IT APPROACHES CUBA... ...ALL WATCHES AND WARNINGS DISCONTINUED... AT 11 PM AST...0300 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR LONG ISLAND AND THE EXUMAS IN THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS. INTERESTS IN CUBA AND THE FLORIDA KEYS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF CHRIS. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 1100 PM AST...0300Z...THE POORLY-DEFINED CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION CHRIS WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 74.0 WEST OR ABOUT 135 MILES...220 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF LONG ISLAND AND ABOUT 250 MILES...405 KM...EAST OF CAMAGUEY CUBA. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 13 MPH...20 KM/HR... AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THIS TRACK CHRIS WILL BE NEARING THE NORTH COAST OF CUBA ON SATURDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 30 MPH...45 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HOWEVER...CHRIS COULD DISSIPATE ON SATURDAY. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1012 MB...29.88 INCHES. CHRIS IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ACROSS HAITI...EASTERN CUBA AND THE SOUTHEAST BAHAMAS WITH ISOLATED TOTALS OF UP TO 4 INCHES OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN THROUGH SATURDAY. REPEATING THE 1100 PM AST POSITION...21.6 N...74.0 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST NEAR 13 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1012 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 500 AM AST. $$ FORECASTER BLAKE/KNABB ** WTNT23 KNHC 050230 *** TCMAT3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION CHRIS FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 18 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032006 0300 UTC SAT AUG 05 2006 AT 11 PM AST...0300 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR LONG ISLAND AND THE EXUMAS IN THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS. INTERESTS IN CUBA AND THE FLORIDA KEYS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF CHRIS. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.6N 74.0W AT 05/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 11 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1012 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.6N 74.0W AT 05/0300Z AT 05/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.5N 73.4W FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 21.8N 75.8W MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 22.2N 78.3W...NEAR NORTH COAST OF CUBA MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 22.8N 81.0W...INLAND OVER CUBA MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 23.3N 83.8W MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 24.0N 89.0W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 09/0000Z 24.5N 94.5W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 10/0000Z 25.0N 99.5W...INLAND AND DISSIPATING MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.6N 74.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 05/0900Z $$ FORECASTER BLAKE/KNABB ** WTPQ30 RJTD 050000 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING REASONING NO. 1 FOR TD LOCATED AT 24.7N 147.0E 1.GENERAL COMMENTS POSITION FORECAST IS MAINLY BASED ON NWP AND PERSISTENCY. 2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION NOTHING PARTICULAR TO EXPLAIN. 3.MOTION FORECAST POSITION ACCURACY AT 050000 UTC IS FAIR. TD WILL MOVE AT THE SAME SPEED FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS. TD WILL MOVE WEST FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS. 4.INTENSITY FORECAST TD WILL BE GRADED UP TO TS WITHIN 24 HOURS. TD WILL DEVELOP BECAUSE CYCLONE WILL STAY IN HIGH SST AREA. FI-NUMBER WILL BE 2.5 AFTER 24 HOURS.= ** WTNT43 KNHC 050236 *** TCDAT3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION CHRIS DISCUSSION NUMBER 18 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032006 1100 PM EDT FRI AUG 04 2006 PUFFS OF DEEP CONVECTION HAVE OCCASIONALLY BEEN FORMING IN THE CIRCULATION OF CHRIS TONIGHT. HOWEVER THESE BURSTS HAVE BEEN SHORT-LIVED AND THERE IS NO EVIDENCE THAT THEY ARE CONTRIBUTING TO A REJUVENATION OF THE SYSTEM. IN FACT THE LATEST SATELLITE PICTURES SHOW THAT THE DEEP CONVECTION IS ALMOST GONE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS REDUCED TO 25 KT...IN ACCORDANCE WITH DECREASING DVORAK SATELLITE ESTIMATES...A 2312 UTC QUIKSCAT PASS...AND A RECENT SHIP OBSERVATION OF 24 KT IN A THUNDERSTORM NORTH OF THE CENTER. EVEN THOUGH THE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR HAS DECREASED... MOST GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST THE CYCLONE WILL JUST GRADUALLY SPIN DOWN. ONE FACTOR ON WHY THE MODELS DISSIPATE CHRIS MIGHT BE THE LACK OF UPPER-LEVEL DIVERGENCE OVER THE SYSTEM...WHICH WOULD TEND TO LIMIT CHRIS' CONVECTION. SHIPS ALSO DIAGNOSES UPPER-LEVEL CONVERGENCE AS A SIGNIFICANT INHIBITING FACTOR FOR THE FUTURE INTENSITY OF CHRIS. IN ADDITION...INTERACTION WITH CUBA COULD HASTEN THE DEMISE OF THE SYSTEM. IF THE DEPRESSION SURVIVES AND REACHES THE GULF OF MEXICO.. IT WOULD BE PASSING OVER WARMER WATER AND EXPERIENCING LIGHT SHEAR. THE INTENSITY FORECAST GENEROUSLY ASSUMES THAT CHRIS WILL HANG ON AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. HOWEVER... GIVEN THE WEAKENED STATE OF CHRIS...IT COULD CERTAINLY DISSIPATE AT ANY TIME. MOST OF THE CIRCULATION OF CHRIS IS OBSCURED WITH A THIN VEIL OF CIRRUS CLOUDS...MAKING THE CENTER RATHER DIFFICULT TO FIND. BEST ESTIMATE IS THAT THE CYCLONE CONTINUES MOVING JUST NORTH OF DUE WEST.. 280/11. TRACK GUIDANCE IS TIGHTLY CLUSTERED... PROBABLY DUE TO A STRONG LOW TO MIDDLE-LEVEL RIDGE NORTH OF THE CYCLONE THAT IS PROVIDING WELL-DEFINED STEERING CURRENTS. A MORE WESTWARD TRACK IS FORESEEN IN ABOUT 3 DAYS DUE TO A STRONG MIDDLE-LEVEL HIGH FORECAST BY ALL GUIDANCE OVER THE SOUTH-CENTRAL UNITED STATES. A SMALL SOUTHWARD ADJUSTMENT IS MADE TO THE TRACK FORECAST... CLOSEST TO THE BAM SHALLOW MODEL WHICH SEEMS APPROPRIATE FOR THIS TYPE OF SYSTEM. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 05/0300Z 21.6N 74.0W 25 KT 12HR VT 05/1200Z 21.8N 75.8W 25 KT 24HR VT 06/0000Z 22.2N 78.3W 25 KT...NEAR CUBA 36HR VT 06/1200Z 22.8N 81.0W 25 KT...INLAND 48HR VT 07/0000Z 23.3N 83.8W 25 KT 72HR VT 08/0000Z 24.0N 89.0W 30 KT 96HR VT 09/0000Z 24.5N 94.5W 35 KT 120HR VT 10/0000Z 25.0N 99.5W 20 KT...INLAND AND DISSIPATING $$ FORECASTER BLAKE/KNABB ** WTCA43 TJSJ 050243 *** TCPSP3 BOLETIN TORMENTA TROPICAL CHRIS ADVERTENCIA INTERMEDIA NUMERO 18 NWS TCP/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL AL032006 1100 PM AST VIERNES 4 DE AGOSTO DE 2006 ...CHRIS SE DEBIITADO A MEDIDA QUE SE ACERCA A CUBA... ...TODAS LAS VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS HAN SIDO DESCONTINUADO... A LAS 11 PM AST...0300 UTC...EL GOBIERNO DE LAS BAHAMAS HA DESCONTINUADO LA VIGILANCIA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL PARA LONG ISLAND Y EXUMAS EN LAS BAHAMAS CENTRALES. INTERESES EN CUBA Y EN LOS CAYOS DE LA FLORIDA...DEBEN SEGUIR DE CERCA EL PROGRESO DE CHRIS. PARA INFORMACION ESPECIFICA PARA SU AREA...INCLUYENDO POSIBLES VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS PARA AREAS TERRESTRES...FAVOR DE REFERIRSE A LOS PRODUCTOS EMITIDOS POR SU OFICINA METEOROLOGICA LOCAL. A LAS 1100 PM AST...0300Z...EL POBREMENTE DEFINIDO CENTRO DE LA DEPRESION TROPICAL CHRIS ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 21.6 NORTE...LONGITUD 74.0 OESTE O COMO A 135 MILLAS...220 KM...AL SUR-SURESTE DE LONG ISLAND Y COMO A 250 MILLAS...405 KM...AL ESTE DE CAMAGUEY CUBA. LA DEPRESION SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL OESTE A CERCA DE 13 MPH...20 KILOMETROS POR HORA...Y ESTE MOVIMIENTO GENERAL SE ESPERA QUE CONTINUE POR LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. EN ESTA TRAYECTORIA CHRIS SE ESTARA ACERCANDO AL NORTE DE LA COSTA DE CUBA EL SABADO. LOS VIENTOS SOSTENIDOS ESTAN EN CERCA DE 30 MPH...45 KM/HR...CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. SE PRONOSTICA POCO CAMBIO EN FORTALECIMIENTO DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. SINEMBARGO...CHRIS PODRIA DISIPARSE EL SABADO. LA PRESION MINIMA CENTRAL ESTIMADA ES DE 1013 MB...29.88 PULGADAS. SE ESPERA QUE CHRIS PRODUZCA ACUMULACIONES TOTALES DE LLUVIA DE 1 A 2 PULGADAS A TRAVES DE HAITI...EL ESTE DE CUBA Y EL SURESTE DE LAS BAHAMAS CON TOTALES AISLADOS DE HASTA 4 PULGADAS SOBRE TERRENO ALTO HASTA EL SABADO. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 11 PM AST...21.6 NORTE...74.0 OESTE. MOVIMIENTO HACIA...EL OESTE A CERCA DE 13 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS...30 MPH. PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA...1012 MILIBARAS. LA PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 500 AM AST. $$ PRONOSTICADOR BLAKE/KNABB ** WTPN31 PGTW 050300 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 08W WARNING NR 002 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 050000Z --- NEAR 9.8N 148.7E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 310 DEGREES AT 11 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT REPEAT POSIT: 9.8N 148.7E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 051200Z --- 11.2N 147.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 12 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 060000Z --- 13.1N 145.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 061200Z --- 14.6N 144.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 10 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 070000Z --- 15.8N 142.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 080000Z --- 17.8N 139.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 050300Z POSITION NEAR 10.1N 148.3E. TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 08W, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 310 NM SOUTHEAST OF GUAM, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. RECENT MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS THAT THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER HAS MOVED FURTHER WEST THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. THIS INITIAL SHIFT WESTWARD HAS RESULTED IN A FORECAST TRACK SHIFT SOUTHWARD. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 050000Z IS 11 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 050900Z, 051500Z, 052100Z AND 060300Z.// ** WTPQ21 RJTD 050300 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TD ANALYSIS PSTN 050300UTC 25.0N 146.6E FAIR MOVE WNW 11KT PRES 1000HPA MXWD 030KT FORECAST 24HF 060300UTC 26.0N 141.8E 150NM 70% MOVE W 10KT PRES 996HPA MXWD 035KT = ** WTPQ31 PGUM 050402 *** TCPPQ1 BULLETIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION 08W ADVISORY NUMBER 2 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU 200 PM GUAM LST SAT AUG 5 2006 ...TROPICAL DEPRESSION 08W ACCELERATING TOWARD THE MARIANAS... A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR GUAM..ROTA..TINIAN AND SAIPAN IN THE MARIANA ISLANDS. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS OF 39 MPH OR MORE ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 48 HOURS. AT 1 PM GUAM LST...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION 08W WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 10.5 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 147.9 DEGREES EAST. THIS IS ABOUT 295 MILES SOUTHEAST OF GUAM 310 MILES SOUTHEAST OF ROTA 345 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF TINIAN 350 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF SAIPAN. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 08W IS MOVING NORTHWEST AT 12 MPH...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON ITS CURRENT FORECAST TRACK...TD 08W WOULD PASS BETWEEN GUAM AND ROTA SUNDAY AFTERNOON. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 35 MPH. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 08W IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY...AND MAY BECOME A TROPICAL STORM TONIGHT. REPEATING THE 1 PM POSITION...10.5 DEGREES NORTH AND 147.9 DEGREES EAST...MOVING NORTHWEST AT 12 MPH WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF 35 MPH. AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AT 5 PM GUAM LST...FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY AT 8 PM. $$ MIDDLEBROOKE ** WTPQ81 PGUM 050431 *** HLSPQ1 GUZ001-002-003-004-051100- TROPICAL DEPRESSION 08W LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU 230 PM GUAM LST SAT AUG 5 2006 ...TROPICAL DEPRESSION 08W ACCELERATING TOWARD THE MARIANAS... ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT RECOMMENDS ACTIONS TO BE TAKEN BY RESIDENTS OF THE MARIANA ISLANDS. ...WATCHES AND WARNINGS... A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR GUAM...ROTA...TINIAN AND SAIPAN. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS OF 39 MPH OR MORE ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 48 HOURS. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 1 PM GUAM LST...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION 08W WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 10.5 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 147.9 DEGREES EAST. THIS IS ABOUT 295 MILES SOUTHEAST OF GUAM 310 MILES SOUTHEAST OF ROTA 345 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF TINIAN 350 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF SAIPAN. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 08W IS MOVING NORTHWEST AT 12 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 35 MPH. ...GUAM..ROTA..TINIAN AND SAIPAN... REVIEW YOUR DISASTER PREPAREDNESS PLAN AND CHECK EMERGENCY SUPPLIES OF FOOD AND WATER. SECURE OUTSIDE FURNITURE AND OTHER LOOSE OBJECTS IN YOUR YARD. FILL YOUR VEHICLES WITH GAS. GATHER CONTAINERS FOR DRINKING WATER STORAGE AND PREPARE YOUR BATHTUB FOR WATER STORAGE. RESIDENTS OF GUAM SHOULD REMEMBER THAT HEAVY RAIN MAY AFFECT WATER PRESSURE IN SOUTHERN GUAM DUE TO SILT IN FENA RESERVOIR. CHECK SUPPLIES OF PRESCRIPTION DRUGS. MOVE SMALL BOATS TO SAFE HAVEN. BEAR IN MIND THAT TD 08W HAS PICKED UP SPEED...AND IS NOW FORECAST TO PASS BETWEEN GUAM AND ROTA SUNDAY AFTERNOON. PREPARATIONS FOR DAMAGING WINDS SHOULD BE COMPLETED TONIGHT. ...WIND INFORMATION... TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. BE PREPARED FOR MAXIMUM WINDS OF 50 MPH OR HIGHER. ...STORM SURGE AND SURF INFORMATION... SURF WILL LIKELY BECOME HAZARDOUS AT 9 FEET OR MORE ON SUNDAY... AND CONTINUE AT HAZARDOUS LEVELS MONDAY AND TUESDAY. ...OTHER STORM EFFECTS... RAINFALL OF 6 INCHES OR MORE IS POSSIBLE SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY. LOCAL FLOODING IS POSSIBLE. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY 9 PM GUAM LST. $$ MIDDLEBROOKE ** WTNT80 EGRR 050522 *** MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 05.08.2006 EX-TROPICAL DEPRESSION GILMA ANALYSED POSITION : 18.1N 112.6W ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP082006 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 05.08.2006 18.1N 112.6W WEAK 12UTC 05.08.2006 18.3N 113.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 06.08.2006 18.6N 114.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 06.08.2006 18.2N 115.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 07.08.2006 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH TROPICAL DEPRESSION CHRIS ANALYSED POSITION : 21.3N 73.4W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL032006 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 05.08.2006 21.3N 73.4W WEAK 12UTC 05.08.2006 22.2N 75.6W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 06.08.2006 22.3N 78.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 06.08.2006 23.4N 80.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 07.08.2006 23.9N 83.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 07.08.2006 23.9N 87.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 08.08.2006 24.9N 89.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 08.08.2006 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 050522