** WTPQ20 RJTD 041800 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TS 0606 PRAPIROON (0606) ANALYSIS PSTN 041800UTC 23.9N 107.7E FAIR MOVE NW 08KT PRES 996HPA MXWD 040KT 30KT 200NM EAST 160NM WEST FORECAST 24HF 051800UTC 24.7N 104.3E 80NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION = ** WTJP21 RJTD 041800 *** WARNING 041800. WARNING VALID 051800. WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS. GALE WARNING. TROPICAL STORM 0606 PRAPIROON (0606) 996 HPA AT 23.9N 107.7E SOUTH CHINA MOVING NORTHWEST 08 KNOTS. POSITION FAIR. MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 200 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 160 MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION FOR 050600UTC AT 24.4N 106.0E WITH 60 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 998 HPA. BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION. FORECAST POSITION FOR 051800UTC AT 24.7N 104.3E WITH 80 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 1000 HPA. BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTKO20 RKSL 041800 *** KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 8 NAME TS 0606 PRAPIROON ANALYSIS POSITION 041800UTC 23.9N 107.7E MOVEMENT NW 8KT PRES/VMAX 996HPA 41KT FORECAST 12HR POSITION 050600UTC 24.7N 105.8E WITHIN 0NM PRES 1000HPA KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION. ** WTNT43 KNHC 042034 *** TCDAT3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION CHRIS DISCUSSION NUMBER 17 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032006 500 PM EDT FRI AUG 04 2006 THE CIRCULATION HAS BECOME BROAD AND POORLY-DEFINED WITHIN THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS AND THE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT HAD A DIFFICULT TIME FINDING THE CENTER AT 850 MB. DROPSONDES NEAR THE ESTIMATED 850 MB CENTER INDICATED LIGHT WESTERLY SURFACE WINDS AND ADVISORIES WILL CONTINUE. FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS OF 30-36 KT WERE OBSERVED WELL TO THE NORTHEAST OF CENTER...AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL REMAIN 30 KT BASED ON THESE WINDS AND AN EARLIER 30 KT SYNOPTIC OBSERVATION FROM GRAND TURK. NORTH-NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR CONTINUES TO DISRUPT ANY CONVECTION TRYING TO FORM NEAR THE CENTER. GIVEN THAT THE CIRCULATION IS WEAKER THAN IT WAS 12 HOURS AGO...THE INTENSITY FORECAST WILL NOT INDICATE RESTRENGTHING BACK TO TROPICAL STORM STATUS PRIOR TO NEARING THE NORTH COAST OF CUBA. INSTEAD IT WILL WAIT UNTIL THE SYSTEM ENTERS THE GULF OF MEXICO IN 2-3 DAYS. THE INTENSITY FORECAST FOLLOWS THE TRENDS OF THE SHIPS AND GFDL MODELS CLOSELY...BUT SHOWS LESS STRENGTHENING NEAR THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS HIGHLY CONTINGENT ON CHRIS MAINTAINING A CLOSED CIRCULATION...WHICH MAY NOT HAPPEN. THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 280/10 KT. THE TRACK FORECAST REASONING REMAINS UNCHANGED AS CHRIS IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN A WEST TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD HEADING SOUTH OF A STRONG LOW/MID- TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE. TRACK GUIDANCE REMAINS TIGHTLY CLUSTERED AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS...BUT IS SLIGHTLY SLOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 04/2100Z 21.4N 72.8W 30 KT 12HR VT 05/0600Z 21.7N 74.5W 30 KT 24HR VT 05/1800Z 22.1N 76.9W 30 KT 36HR VT 06/0600Z 22.6N 79.4W 30 KT...ALONG COAST OF CUBA 48HR VT 06/1800Z 23.2N 82.0W 30 KT...ALONG COAST OF CUBA 72HR VT 07/1800Z 24.2N 87.0W 35 KT 96HR VT 08/1800Z 25.0N 92.5W 40 KT 120HR VT 09/1800Z 25.5N 98.0W 45 KT...INLAND $$ FORECASTER BROWN/BEVEN ** WTNT23 KNHC 042035 *** TCMAT3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION CHRIS FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 17 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032006 2100 UTC FRI AUG 04 2006 AT 5 PM AST...2100 UTC...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE TURKS AND CAICOS...AND FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS HAS BEEN DISCOUNTINUED. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR LONG ISLAND AND THE EXUMAS IN THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. INTERESTS IN CUBA...AS WELL AS IN SOUTHERN FLORIDA AND THE FLORIDA KEYS...SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF CHRIS. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.4N 72.8W AT 04/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1011 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. 12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 60SE 0SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.4N 72.8W AT 04/2100Z AT 04/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.3N 72.2W FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 21.7N 74.5W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 22.1N 76.9W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 22.6N 79.4W...NEAR NORTH COAST OF CUBA MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 23.2N 82.0W...NEAR NORTH COAST OF CUBA MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 24.2N 87.0W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 0SW 0NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 08/1800Z 25.0N 92.5W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 09/1800Z 25.5N 98.0W...INLAND MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.4N 72.8W NEXT ADVISORY AT 05/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BROWN/BEVEN ** WTNT33 KNHC 042036 *** TCPAT3 BULLETIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION CHRIS ADVISORY NUMBER 17 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032006 500 PM AST FRI AUG 04 2006 AT 5 PM AST...2100 UTC...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE TURKS AND CAICOS...AND FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR LONG ISLAND AND THE EXUMAS IN THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA... GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. INTERESTS IN CUBA...AS WELL AS IN SOUTHERN FLORIDA AND THE FLORIDA KEYS...SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF CHRIS. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 500 PM AST...2100Z...THE BROAD AND POORLY-DEFINED CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION CHRIS WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 72.8 WEST OR ABOUT 35 MILES... 55 KM...NORTHEAST OF GREAT INAGUA ISLAND AND ABOUT 330 MILES...530 KM...EAST OF CAMAGUEY CUBA. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 12 MPH... 19 KM/HR... AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS MOTION SHOULD BRING THE CENTER OF CHRIS THROUGH THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS TONIGHT AND NEAR THE NORTH COAST OF CUBA SATURDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ALTHOUGH LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST...ANY INCREASE IN STRENGTH WOULD BRING CHRIS BACK TO TROPICAL STORM STATUS. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1011 MB...29.85 INCHES. CHRIS IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ACROSS THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...THE TURKS AND CAICOS...THE SOUTHEAST BAHAMAS...HAITI AND EASTERN CUBA...WITH ISOLATED TOTALS OF UP TO 4 INCHES OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN THROUGH SATURDAY. REPEATING THE 500 PM AST POSITION...21.4 N...72.8 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST NEAR 12 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1011 MB. AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 800 PM AST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1100 PM AST. $$ FORECASTER BROWN/BEVEN ** WTNT23 KNHC 042037 *** TCMAT3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION CHRIS FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 17...CORRECTED NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032006 2100 UTC FRI AUG 04 2006 ...CORRECTED SPELLING OF DISCONTINUED IN WARNING SECTION... AT 5 PM AST...2100 UTC...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE TURKS AND CAICOS...AND FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR LONG ISLAND AND THE EXUMAS IN THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. INTERESTS IN CUBA...AS WELL AS IN SOUTHERN FLORIDA AND THE FLORIDA KEYS...SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF CHRIS. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.4N 72.8W AT 04/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1011 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. 12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 60SE 0SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.4N 72.8W AT 04/2100Z AT 04/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.3N 72.2W FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 21.7N 74.5W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 22.1N 76.9W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 22.6N 79.4W...NEAR NORTH COAST OF CUBA MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 23.2N 82.0W...NEAR NORTH COAST OF CUBA MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 24.2N 87.0W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 0SW 0NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 08/1800Z 25.0N 92.5W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 09/1800Z 25.5N 98.0W...INLAND MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.4N 72.8W NEXT ADVISORY AT 05/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BROWN/BEVEN ** WTCA43 TJSJ 042055 *** TCPSP3 BOLETIN TORMENTA TROPICAL CHRIS ADVERTENCIA INTERMEDIA NUMERO 17 NWS TCP/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL AL032006 500 PM AST VIERNES 4 DE AGOSTO DE 2006 A LAS 500 PM...2100 UTC...EL AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL FOR LAS ISLAS DE TURKS Y CAICOS Y EL SURESTE DE LAS BAHAMAS QUEDA DESCONTINUADO. CONTINUA EN EFECTO UNA VIGILANCIA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL PARA LONG ISLAND Y EXUMAS EN LAS BAHAMAS CENTRALES. UNA VIGILANCIA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SIGNIFICA QUE SON POSIBLES ESTAS CONDICIONES DE TORMENTA TROPICAL DENTRO DEL AREA DE LA VIGILANCIA GENERALMENTE DENTRO DE 36 HORAS. INTERESES EN CUBA...AL IGUAL QUE EN EL SUR DE LA FLORIDA Y LOS CAYOS DE LA FLORIDA...DEBEN SEGUIR DE CERCA EL PROGRESO DE CHRIS. ...CENTRO DE CHRIS MOVIENDOSE A TRAVES DE TURCOS Y CAICOS... UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL ESTA EN EFECTO PARA TURKS Y CAICOS Y PARA LA PARTE SURESTE DE LAS BAHAMAS...INCLUYENDO ACKLINS... CROOKED ISLAND...LAS INAGUAS...MAYAGUANA...Y LAS ISLAS RAGGED. UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SIGNIFICA QUE CONDICIONES DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SON POSIBLES DENTRO DEL AREA BAJO AVISO DENTRO DE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. UNA VIGILANCIA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL ESTA EN EFECTO PARA LONG ISLAND Y EXUMAS EN LAS BAHAMAS CENTRALES. UNA VIGILANCIA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SIGNIFICA QUE CONDICIONES DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SON POSIBLES DENTRO DEL AREA BAJO VIGILANCIA...GENERALMENTE DENTRO DE LAS PROXIMAS 36 HORAS. UNA VIGILANCIA O AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL PUEDE SER REQUERIDA PARA PORCIONES DE LA COSTA NORTE DEL ESTE CUBA MAS TARDE HOY. LOS INTERESES EN EL RESTO DE CUBA...COMO TAMBIEN EL SUR DE LA FLORIDA Y LOS CAYOS DE LA FLORIDA..DEBEN DE VIGILAR DE CERCA EL PROGRESO DE CHRIS. PARA INFORMACION ESPECIFICA PARA SU AREA...INCLUYENDO POSIBLES VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS PARA AREAS TERRESTRES...FAVOR DE REFERIRSE A LOS PRODUCTOS EMITIDOS POR SU OFICINA METEOROLOGICA LOCAL. A LAS 5PM AST...2100Z...EL AMPLIO Y POBREMENTE DEFINIDA DE LA DEPRESION TROPICAL CHRIS ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 21.4 NORTE...LONGITUD 72.8 OESTE O COMO A 35 MILLAS...55 KM...AL NORESTE DE LA ISLA GREAT INAGUA Y COMO A 300 MILLAS...530 KM...AL ESTE DE CAMAGUEY CUBA. LA DEPRESION SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL OESTE A CERCA DE 12 MPH...19 KILOMETROS POR HORA...Y ESTE MOVIMIENTO GENERAL SE ESPERA POR LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. ESTE MOVIMIENTO DEBE DE TRAER EL CENTRO DE CHRIS A TRAVES DEL SURESTE DE LAS BAHAMAS ESTA MPCJE U CERCA DE LA COSTA NORTE DE CUBA EL SABADO. LOS VIENTOS SOSTENIDOS ESTAN EN CERCA DE 35 MPH...55 KM/HR...CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. SE ESPERAR POCOS CAMBIOS DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. SIN EMBARGO...CUALQUIER REINTENSIFICACION PUEDE DESARROLLAR A CHRIS NUEVAMENTE A TORMENTA TROPICAL. LA PRESION MINIMA CENTRAL ESTIMADA ES DE 1011 MB...29.85 PULGADAS. SE ESPERA QUE CHRIS PRODUZCA ACUMULACIONES TOTALES DE LLUVIA DE 1 A 2 PULGADAS A TRAVES DE LA REPUBLICA DOMINICANA...LAS ISLAS TURKS Y CAICOS...EL SURESTE DE LAS BAHAMAS...HAITI Y EL ESTE DE CUBA...CON TOTALES AISLADOS DE HASTA 4 PULGADAS EN TERRENOS MAS ALTOS HASTA EL SABADO. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 5 PM AST...21.4 NORTE...72.8 OESTE. MOVIMIENTO HACIA...EL OESTE A CERCA DE 12 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS...35 MPH. PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA...1011 MILIBARAS. LA PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 800 PM AST. $$ ** WTPN31 PGTW 042100 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// REF/A/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/041351ZAUG06// AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 08W WARNING NR 001 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 041800Z --- NEAR 8.5N 150.2E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 335 DEGREES AT 07 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT REPEAT POSIT: 8.5N 150.2E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 050600Z --- 10.2N 149.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 051800Z --- 11.9N 148.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 060600Z --- 13.3N 147.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 09 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 061800Z --- 14.6N 145.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 071800Z --- 16.8N 142.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 042100Z POSITION NEAR 8.9N 150.0E. TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 08W, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 430 NM SOUTHEAST OF GUAM, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON ANTICIPATED DEVELOPMENT OF THE SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE. THE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD TO THE NORTH OF THE SYSTEM ALLOWING FOR A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD A MORE WESTWARD TRACK. CONFIDENCE IN CURRENT STORM POSITION IS ONLY MODERATE DUE TO A 100 NM SPREAD AMONG 041800Z FIXES. HOWEVER, THE CURRENT POSITION IS CLOSE TO A 041658Z AMSU-B MICROWAVE FIX. THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A, NAVPACMETOCCEN 041351ZAUG06 TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT ** WTPQ20 RJTD 042100 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TS 0606 PRAPIROON (0606) ANALYSIS PSTN 042100UTC 24.2N 107.1E FAIR MOVE WNW 10KT PRES 996HPA MXWD 035KT 30KT 160NM EAST 120NM WEST FORECAST 24HF 052100UTC 24.8N 104.0E 80NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION = ** WTPN31 PGTW 042100 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// REF/A/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/041351ZAUG2006// AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 08W WARNING NR 001 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 041800Z --- NEAR 8.5N 150.2E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 335 DEGREES AT 07 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT REPEAT POSIT: 8.5N 150.2E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 050600Z --- 10.2N 149.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 051800Z --- 11.9N 148.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 060600Z --- 13.3N 147.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 09 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 061800Z --- 14.6N 145.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 071800Z --- 16.8N 142.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 042100Z POSITION NEAR 8.9N 150.0E. TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 08W, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 430 NM SOUTHEAST OF GUAM, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON ANTICIPATED DEVELOPMENT OF THE SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE. THE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD TO THE NORTH OF THE SYSTEM ALLOWING FOR A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD A MORE WESTWARD TRACK. CONFIDENCE IN CURRENT STORM POSITION IS ONLY MODERATE DUE TO A 100 NM SPREAD AMONG 041800Z FIXES. HOWEVER, THE CURRENT POSITION IS CLOSE TO A 041658Z AMSU-B MICROWAVE FIX. THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A, NAVPACMETOCCEN 041351ZAUG2006 TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTPN21 PGTW 041400). MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 041800Z IS 8 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 050300Z, 050900Z, 051500Z AND 052100Z. ** WTPQ31 PGUM 042217 *** TCPPQ1 BULLETIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION 08W ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU 800 AM GUAM LST SAT AUG 5 2006 ...TROPICAL DEPRESSION 08W HAS FORMED NORTHWEST OF CHUUK... NO WATCHES OR WARNINGS ARE CURRENTLY IN EFFECT. HOWEVER...A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MAY BE NEEDED LATER THIS MORNING FOR THE MARIANA ISLANDS. AT 7 AM GUAM LST...2100Z...THE POORLY-DEFINED CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION 08W WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 8.9 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 150.0 DEGREES EAST. THIS IS ABOUT 35 MILES NORTHEAST OF ULUL 160 MILES NORTHWEST OF CHUUK 475 MILES SOUTHEAST OF GUAM 515 MILES SOUTHEAST OF SAIPAN. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 08W IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHWEST AT 8 MPH. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...TROPICAL DEPRESSION 08W IS EXPECTED TO MAKE A SLIGHT TURN TO THE NORTHWEST WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 30 MPH. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 08W IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS...AND MAY BECOME A TROPICAL STORM TONIGHT. REPEATING THE 7 AM POSITION...8.9 DEGREES NORTH AND 150.0 DEGREES EAST...MOVING NORTH-NORTHWEST AT 8 MPH WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF 30 MPH. THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AT 2 PM GUAM LST...OR EARLIER IF NEEDED. $$ STANKO/AHN ** WTNT33 KNHC 042356 *** TCPAT3 BULLETIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION CHRIS INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 17A NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032006 800 PM AST FRI AUG 04 2006 ...CHRIS PASSING THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST BAHAMAS... A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR LONG ISLAND AND THE EXUMAS IN THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA... GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. INTERESTS IN CUBA...AS WELL AS IN SOUTHERN FLORIDA AND THE FLORIDA KEYS...SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF CHRIS. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 800 PM AST...0000Z...THE BROAD AND POORLY-DEFINED CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION CHRIS WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 73.4 WEST OR ABOUT 20 MILES... 30 KM...NORTH OF GREAT INAGUA ISLAND AND ABOUT 285 MILES...460 KM...EAST OF CAMAGUEY CUBA. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 13 MPH... 20 KM/HR... AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS MOTION WILL TAKE THE CENTER OF CHRIS WEST OF THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS TONIGHT AND NEAR THE NORTH COAST OF CUBA ON SATURDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HOWEVER...ANY INCREASE IN STRENGTH WOULD BRING CHRIS BACK TO TROPICAL STORM STATUS. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1011 MB...29.85 INCHES. CHRIS IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ACROSS THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...THE TURKS AND CAICOS...THE SOUTHEAST BAHAMAS...HAITI AND EASTERN CUBA...WITH ISOLATED TOTALS OF UP TO 4 INCHES OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN THROUGH SATURDAY. REPEATING THE 800 PM AST POSITION...21.5 N...73.4 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST NEAR 13 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1011 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 1100 PM AST. $$ FORECASTER BLAKE/KNABB