** WTSR20 WSSS 040600 *** NO STORM WARNING= ** WTCA43 TJSJ 041203 *** TCPSP3 BOLETIN TORMENTA TROPICAL CHRIS ADVERTENCIA INTERMEDIA NUMERO 16 NWS TCP/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL AL032006 8 AM AST VIERNES 4 DE AGOSTO DE 2006 ...CHRIS SE DEBILITA Y SE CONVIERTE EN DEPRESION TROPICAL... UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL ESTA EN EFECTO PARA TURKS Y CAICOS Y PARA LA PARTE SURESTE DE LAS BAHAMAS...INCLUYENDO ACKLINS... CROOKED ISLAND...LAS INAGUAS...MAYAGUANA...Y LAS ISLAS RAGGED. UNA VIGILANCIA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL PARA LONG ISLAND Y LAS EXUMAS EN EL CENTRO DE LAS BAHAMAS. ESTOS AVISOS Y VIGILANCIA PROBABLEMENTE SEAN DESCONTGINUADOS MAS TARDE EN LA MANANA DE HOY. UNA VIGILANCIA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL PARA LONG ISLAND Y LAS EXUMAS EN EL CENTRO DE LAS BAHAMAS. UNA VIGILANCIA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SIGNIFICA QUE CONDICIONES DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SON POSIBLES EN EL AREA DE LA VIGILANCIA...GENERALMENTE DENTRO DE 36 HORAS. A LAS 8 AM AST...1200Z...LA VIGILANCIA DE TORMENTA PARA LA COSTA NORTE DE ESPANOLA DESDE DESDE LA MOLE ST. NICOLAS HAITI AL ESTE HASTA SAMANA EN LA REPUBLICA DOMINICANA HA SIDO DESCONTINADO. PARA INFORMACION ESPECIFICA PARA SU AREA...INCLUYENDO POSIBLES VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS PARA AREAS TERRESTRES...FAVOR DE REFERIRSE A LOS PRODUCTOS EMITIDOS POR SU OFICINA METEOROLOGICA LOCAL. A LAS 8 AM AST...1200Z...EL CENTRO DE LA TORMENTA TROPICAL CHRIS ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 21.2 NORTE...LONGITUD 71.1 OESTE O COMO A20 MILLAS...30 KM...AL SUR DE GRAND TURK ISLAND. CHRIS SE ESTA MOVIENDO AL OESTE A CERCA DE 13 MPH...21 KM/HR...Y SE ESPERA QUE CONTINUE EN ESTE MOVIMIENTO DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LAS IMAGENES DEL SATELITE Y DATA RECIBIDO DESDE EL AVION DE RECONOSCIMIENTO INDICAN QUE CHRIS SE HA CONVERTIDO EN DEPRESION TROPICAL. LOS VIENTOS SOSTENIDOS HAN DISMINUIDO Y ESTAN EN CERCA DE 35 MPH...55 KM/HR...CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. LA POSIBILIDAD AUN EXISTE DE QUE CHRIS PODRIA REALCANZAR FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL. LA PRESION MINIMA CENTRAL REPORTADA POR UN AVION DE RECONOSCIMIENTO FUE DE 1012 MB...29.88 PULGADAS. SE ESPERA QUE CHRIS PRODUZCA ACUMULACIONES TOTALES DE LLUVIA DE 2 A 4 PULGADAS A TRAVES DE LA REPUBLICA DOMINICANA...EL SURESTE DE LAS BAHAMAS...TURKS Y CAICOS...HAITI Y EL ESTE DE CUBA...CON TOTALES AISLADOS DE HASTA 6 PULGADAS EN TERRENOS MAS ALTOS HASTA HOY. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 8 AM AST...21.2 NORTE...71.1 OESTE. MOVIMIENTO HACIA...EL OESTE A CERCA DE 13 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS...35 MPH. PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA...1012 MILIBARAS. LA PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 800 AM AST. $$ PRONOSTICADOR MAINELLI/AVILA ** WTPQ20 BABJ 041200 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TD PRAPIROON 0606 (0606) INITIAL TIME 041200 UTC 00HR 23.2N 108.2E 995HPA 12M/S= P12HR W 15KM/H= ** WTJP21 RJTD 041200 *** WARNING 041200. WARNING VALID 051200. WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS. GALE WARNING. TROPICAL STORM 0606 PRAPIROON (0606) 994 HPA AT 23.4N 108.4E SOUTH CHINA MOVING NORTHWEST 07 KNOTS. POSITION FAIR. MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 240 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 200 MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION FOR 051200UTC AT 23.8N 104.9E WITH 80 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 998 HPA. BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 041200 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TS 0606 PRAPIROON (0606) ANALYSIS PSTN 041200UTC 23.4N 108.4E FAIR MOVE NW 07KT PRES 994HPA MXWD 040KT 30KT 240NM EAST 200NM WEST FORECAST 24HF 051200UTC 23.8N 104.9E 80NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION = ** WTPQ20 BABJ 041300 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TD PRAPIROON 0606 (0606) INITIAL TIME 041300 UTC 00HR 23.2N 108.1E 996HPA 12M/S= P12HR W 15KM/H= ** WTPQ20 BABJ 041400 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TD PRAPIROON 0606 (0606) INITIAL TIME 041400 UTC 00HR 23.2N 107.9E 998HPA 10M/S= P12HR W 15KM/H= ** WTNT23 KNHC 041431 *** TCMAT3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION CHRIS FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 16 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032006 1500 UTC FRI AUG 04 2006 A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE TURKS AND CAICOS...AND FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...INCLUDING THE ACKLINS...CROOKED ISLAND...THE INAGUAS...MAYAGUANA...AND THE RAGGED ISLANDS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR LONG ISLAND AND THE EXUMAS IN THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH OR WARNING WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTH COAST OF EASTERN CUBA LATER TODAY. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN CUBA...AS WELL AS IN SOUTHERN FLORIDA AND THE FLORIDA KEYS...SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF CHRIS. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.3N 71.6W AT 04/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 11 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1012 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. 12 FT SEAS.. 75NE 75SE 30SW 75NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.3N 71.6W AT 04/1500Z AT 04/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.2N 71.1W FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 21.6N 73.5W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 22.0N 76.1W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 22.5N 78.6W...NEAR NORTH COAST OF CUBA MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 23.2N 81.3W...NEAR NORTH COAST OF CUBA MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 24.3N 86.5W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 0SW 0NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 08/1200Z 25.0N 91.5W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 09/1200Z 25.5N 97.0W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.3N 71.6W NEXT ADVISORY AT 04/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BROWN/BEVEN ** WTNT33 KNHC 041432 *** TCPAT3 BULLETIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION CHRIS ADVISORY NUMBER 16 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032006 1100 AM AST FRI AUG 04 2006 ...CHRIS REMAINS POORLY ORGANIZED OVER THE SOUTHEAST BAHAMAS... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE TURKS AND CAICOS...AND FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...INCLUDING THE ACKLINS...CROOKED ISLAND...THE INAGUAS...MAYAGUANA...AND THE RAGGED ISLANDS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR LONG ISLAND AND THE EXUMAS IN THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH OR WARNING WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTH COAST OF EASTERN CUBA LATER TODAY. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN CUBA...AS WELL AS IN SOUTHERN FLORIDA AND THE FLORIDA KEYS...SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF CHRIS. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 1100 AM AST...1500Z...THE BROAD CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION CHRIS WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 71.6 WEST OR ABOUT 35 MILES... 55 KM...WEST-SOUTHWEST OF GRAND TURK ISLAND AND ABOUT 405 MILES...655 KM...EAST OF CAMAGUEY CUBA. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 13 MPH...21 KM/HR...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS MOTION SHOULD BRING THE CENTER OF CHRIS THROUGH THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS TODAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HOWEVER...ANY REINTENSIFICATION COULD BRING CHRIS BACK TO TROPICAL STORM STATUS. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1012 MB...29.88 INCHES. CHRIS IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ACROSS THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...THE TURKS AND CAICOS...THE SOUTHEAST BAHAMAS...HAITI AND EASTERN CUBA...WITH ISOLATED TOTALS OF UP TO 4 INCHES OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN THROUGH TONIGHT. REPEATING THE 1100 AM AST POSITION...21.3 N...71.6 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST NEAR 13 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1012 MB. AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 200 PM AST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 500 PM AST. $$ FORECASTER BROWN/BEVEN ** WTNT43 KNHC 041444 *** TCDAT3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION CHRIS DISCUSSION NUMBER 16 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032006 1100 AM EDT FRI AUG 04 2006 NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR HAS CONTINUED TO TAKE ITS TOLL ON CHRIS THIS MORNING. IN FACT...BETWEEN 0900 UTC AND 1130 UTC...RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT ONLY MEASURED 29 KT WINDS AT FLIGHT LEVEL. THEREFORE... CHRIS WAS DOWNGRADED TO A 30 KT DEPRESSION ON THE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY AND WILL RETAIN THIS INTENSITY FOR THIS ADVISORY. THIS COULD EVEN BE A LITTLE GENEROUS GIVEN THE AIRCRAFT DATA AND A QUIKSCAT PASS THAT ONLY INDICATED ABOUT 25 KT WINDS. CHRIS REMAINS SQUEEZED BETWEEN TWO UPPER-LEVEL LOWS AND IT DOES NOT APPEAR IN THE SHORT-TERM THAT THE SHEAR WILL RELAX. HOWEVER...IT WOULD NOT TAKE MUCH FOR CHRIS TO RESTRENGHTEN BACK TO TROPICAL STORM STATUS IF NEW CONVECTION DEVELOPS NEAR THE CENTER. THE INTENSITY FORECAST KEEPS IN THIS POSSIBILITY. THEREAFTER...THE FORECAST MAINTAINS CHRIS AS MINIMAL TROPICAL STORM AS IT MOVES ALONG THE NORTH COAST OF CUBA. BOTH THE SHIPS AND GFDL MODELS INDICATE THAT IF CHRIS SURVIVES THE NEXT DAY OR SO...WHICH IT MAY NOT...IT MIGHT ENTER A LITTLE MORE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE INTENSITY FORECAST ALLOWS FOR STRENGTHENING OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO BUT IS A BIT MORE CONSERVATIVE THAN BOTH OF THESE MODELS. CHRIS TOOK A NORTHWESTWARD JOG EARLY THIS MORNING BUT A 12-HOUR MOTION YIELDS 280/11 KT. CHRIS IS FORECAST TO REMAIN SOUTH OF A STRONG MID-LEVEL RIDGE FOR THE NEXT 5 DAYS. IN FACT...THE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN OVER THE SOUTHERN UNITED STATES BEYOND DAY 3 WHICH SHOULD KEEP CHRIS ON A GENERAL WEST TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD HEADING. THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS SCENARIO AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST WAS NUDGED JUST NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK. IT LIES JUST NORTH OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 04/1500Z 21.3N 71.6W 30 KT 12HR VT 05/0000Z 21.6N 73.5W 30 KT 24HR VT 05/1200Z 22.0N 76.1W 35 KT 36HR VT 06/0000Z 22.5N 78.6W 35 KT...NEAR CUBA 48HR VT 06/1200Z 23.2N 81.3W 35 KT...NEAR CUBA 72HR VT 07/1200Z 24.3N 86.5W 40 KT 96HR VT 08/1200Z 25.0N 91.5W 45 KT 120HR VT 09/1200Z 25.5N 97.0W 50 KT $$ FORECASTER BROWN/BEVEN ** WTPQ20 BABJ 041500 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TD PRAPIROON 0606 (0606) INITIAL TIME 041500 UTC 00HR 23.2N 107.9E 998HPA 10M/S= P12HR W 10KM/H= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 041500 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TS 0606 PRAPIROON (0606) ANALYSIS PSTN 041500UTC 23.6N 108.1E FAIR MOVE NW 06KT PRES 994HPA MXWD 040KT 30KT 240NM EAST 200NM WEST FORECAST 24HF 051500UTC 24.1N 104.5E 80NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION = ** WTCA43 TJSJ 041605 *** TCPSP3 BOLETIN TORMENTA TROPICAL CHRIS ADVERTENCIA NUMERO 16 NWS TCP/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL AL032006 11 AM AST VIERNES 4 DE AGOSTO DE 2006 ...CHRIS PERMANECE POBREMENTE ORGANIZADA SOBRE EL SURESTE DE LAS BAHAMAS... UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL ESTA EN EFECTO PARA TURKS Y CAICOS Y PARA LA PARTE SURESTE DE LAS BAHAMAS...INCLUYENDO ACKLINS... CROOKED ISLAND...LAS INAGUAS...MAYAGUANA...Y LAS ISLAS RAGGED. UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SIGNIFICA QUE CONDICIONES DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SON POSIBLES DENTRO DEL AREA BAJO AVISO DENTRO DE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. UNA VIGILANCIA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL ESTA EN EFECTO PARA LONG ISLAND Y EXUMAS EN LAS BAHAMAS CENTRALES. UNA VIGILANCIA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SIGNIFICA QUE CONDICIONES DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SON POSIBLES DENTRO DEL AREA BAJO VIGILANCIA...GENERALMENTE DENTRO DE LAS PROXIMAS 36 HORAS. UNA VIGILANCIA O AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL PUEDE SER REQUERIDA PARA PORCIONES DE LA COSTA NORTE DE CUBA MAS TARDE HOY. LOS INTERESES EN EL RESTO DE CUBA...COMO TAMBIEN EL SUR DE LA FLORIDA Y LOS CAYOS DE LA FLORIDA..DEBEN DE VIGILAR DE CERCA EL PROGRESO DE CHRIS. PARA INFORMACION ESPECIFICA PARA SU AREA...INCLUYENDO POSIBLES VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS PARA AREAS TERRESTRES...FAVOR DE REFERIRSE A LOS PRODUCTOS EMITIDOS POR SU OFICINA METEOROLOGICA LOCAL. A LAS 11 AM AST...1500Z...EL AMPLIO CENTRO DE LA DEPRESION TROPICAL CHRIS ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 21.3 NORTE...LONGITUD 71.6 OESTE O COMO A 35 MILLAS...55 KILOMETROS...AL OESTE SUR-OESTE DE GRAND TURK ISLAND...Y COMO A 405 MILLAS...655 KILOMETROS...AL ESTE DE CAMAGUEY CUBA. LA DEPRESION SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL OESTE A CERCA DE 13 MPH...21 KILOMETROS POR HORA...Y ESTE MOVIMIENTO GENERAL SE ESPERA POR LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. ESTE MOVIMIENTO DEBE DE TRAER EL CENTRO DE CHRIS A TRAVES DE LAS BAHAMAS DEL SUR HOY. LOS VIENTOS SOSTENIDOS ESTAN EN CERCA DE 35 MPH...55 KM/HR...CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. SE ESPERAR POCOS CAMBIOS DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. SIN EMBARGO...CUALQUIER REINTENSIFICACION PUEDE DESARROLLAR A CHRIS NUEVAMENTE A TORMENTA TROPICAL. LA PRESION MINIMA CENTRAL ESTIMADA ES DE 1012 MB...29.88 PULGADAS. SE ESPERA QUE CHRIS PRODUZCA ACUMULACIONES TOTALES DE LLUVIA DE 1 A 2 PULGADAS A TRAVES DE LA REPUBLICA DOMINICANA...EL SURESTE DE LAS BAHAMAS...TURKS Y CAICOS...HAITI Y EL ESTE DE CUBA...CON TOTALES AISLADOS DE HASTA 4 PULGADAS EN TERRENOS MAS ALTOS HASTA ESTA NOCHE. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 11 AM AST...21.3 NORTE...71.6 OESTE. MOVIMIENTO HACIA...EL OESTE A CERCA DE 13 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS...35 MPH. PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA...1012 MILIBARAS. UNA ADVERTENCIA INTERMEDIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 200 PM AST SEGUIDA POR LA ADVERTENCIA COMPLETA A LAS 5 PM AST. $$ ** WTCA43 TJSJ 041605 RRA *** TCPSP3 BOLETIN DEPRESION TROPICAL CHRIS ADVERTENCIA NUMERO 16 NWS TCP/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL AL032006 11 AM AST VIERNES 4 DE AGOSTO DE 2006 ...CHRIS PERMANECE POBREMENTE ORGANIZADA SOBRE EL SURESTE DE LAS BAHAMAS... UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL ESTA EN EFECTO PARA TURKS Y CAICOS Y PARA LA PARTE SURESTE DE LAS BAHAMAS...INCLUYENDO ACKLINS... CROOKED ISLAND...LAS INAGUAS...MAYAGUANA...Y LAS ISLAS RAGGED. UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SIGNIFICA QUE CONDICIONES DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SON POSIBLES DENTRO DEL AREA BAJO AVISO DENTRO DE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. UNA VIGILANCIA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL ESTA EN EFECTO PARA LONG ISLAND Y EXUMAS EN LAS BAHAMAS CENTRALES. UNA VIGILANCIA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SIGNIFICA QUE CONDICIONES DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SON POSIBLES DENTRO DEL AREA BAJO VIGILANCIA...GENERALMENTE DENTRO DE LAS PROXIMAS 36 HORAS. UNA VIGILANCIA O AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL PUEDE SER REQUERIDA PARA PORCIONES DE LA COSTA NORTE DE CUBA MAS TARDE HOY. LOS INTERESES EN EL RESTO DE CUBA...COMO TAMBIEN EL SUR DE LA FLORIDA Y LOS CAYOS DE LA FLORIDA..DEBEN DE VIGILAR DE CERCA EL PROGRESO DE CHRIS. PARA INFORMACION ESPECIFICA PARA SU AREA...INCLUYENDO POSIBLES VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS PARA AREAS TERRESTRES...FAVOR DE REFERIRSE A LOS PRODUCTOS EMITIDOS POR SU OFICINA METEOROLOGICA LOCAL. A LAS 11 AM AST...1500Z...EL AMPLIO CENTRO DE LA DEPRESION TROPICAL CHRIS ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 21.3 NORTE...LONGITUD 71.6 OESTE O COMO A 35 MILLAS...55 KILOMETROS...AL OESTE SUR-OESTE DE GRAND TURK ISLAND...Y COMO A 405 MILLAS...655 KILOMETROS...AL ESTE DE CAMAGUEY CUBA. LA DEPRESION SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL OESTE A CERCA DE 13 MPH...21 KILOMETROS POR HORA...Y ESTE MOVIMIENTO GENERAL SE ESPERA POR LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. ESTE MOVIMIENTO DEBE DE TRAER EL CENTRO DE CHRIS A TRAVES DE LAS BAHAMAS DEL SUR HOY. LOS VIENTOS SOSTENIDOS ESTAN EN CERCA DE 35 MPH...55 KM/HR...CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. SE ESPERAR POCOS CAMBIOS DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. SIN EMBARGO...CUALQUIER REINTENSIFICACION PUEDE DESARROLLAR A CHRIS NUEVAMENTE A TORMENTA TROPICAL. LA PRESION MINIMA CENTRAL ESTIMADA ES DE 1012 MB...29.88 PULGADAS. SE ESPERA QUE CHRIS PRODUZCA ACUMULACIONES TOTALES DE LLUVIA DE 1 A 2 PULGADAS A TRAVES DE LA REPUBLICA DOMINICANA...EL SURESTE DE LAS BAHAMAS...TURKS Y CAICOS...HAITI Y EL ESTE DE CUBA...CON TOTALES AISLADOS DE HASTA 4 PULGADAS EN TERRENOS MAS ALTOS HASTA ESTA NOCHE. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 11 AM AST...21.3 NORTE...71.6 OESTE. MOVIMIENTO HACIA...EL OESTE A CERCA DE 13 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS...35 MPH. PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA...1012 MILIBARAS. UNA ADVERTENCIA INTERMEDIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 200 PM AST SEGUIDA POR LA ADVERTENCIA COMPLETA A LAS 5 PM AST. $$ ** WTPQ20 BABJ 041600 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TD PRAPIROON 0606 (0606) INITIAL TIME 041600 UTC 00HR 23.2N 107.8E 999HPA 10M/S= P12HR W 10KM/H= ** WTPQ20 BABJ 041700 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TD PRAPIROON 0606 (0606) INITIAL TIME 041700 UTC 00HR 23.2N 107.7E 999HPA 10M/S= P12HR W 10KM/H= ** WTNT33 KNHC 041743 *** TCPAT3 BULLETIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION CHRIS INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 16A NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032006 200 PM AST FRI AUG 04 2006 ...CENTER OF CHRIS MOVING THROUGH THE TURKS AND CAICOS... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE TURKS AND CAICOS...AND FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...INCLUDING THE ACKLINS...CROOKED ISLAND...THE INAGUAS...MAYAGUANA...AND THE RAGGED ISLANDS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR LONG ISLAND AND THE EXUMAS IN THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH OR WARNING WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTH COAST OF EASTERN CUBA LATER TODAY. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN CUBA...AS WELL AS IN SOUTHERN FLORIDA AND THE FLORIDA KEYS...SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF CHRIS. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 200 PM AST...1800Z...THE BROAD CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION CHRIS WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 72.2 WEST OR ABOUT 25 MILES...40 KM...SOUTH OF PROVIDENCIALES AND ABOUT 360 MILES...580 KM...EAST OF CAMAGUEY CUBA. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/HR...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS MOTION SHOULD BRING THE CENTER OF CHRIS THROUGH THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS TODAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HOWEVER...ANY REINTENSIFICATION COULD BRING CHRIS BACK TO TROPICAL STORM STATUS. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1012 MB...29.88 INCHES. CHRIS IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ACROSS THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...THE TURKS AND CAICOS...THE SOUTHEAST BAHAMAS...HAITI AND EASTERN CUBA...WITH ISOLATED TOTALS OF UP TO 4 INCHES OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN THROUGH TONIGHT. REPEATING THE 200 PM AST POSITION...21.4 N...72.2 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST NEAR 12 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1012 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 500 PM AST. $$ FORECASTER BROWN/BEVEN ** WTNT80 EGRR 041750 *** MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 04.08.2006 TROPICAL DEPRESSION CHRIS ANALYSED POSITION : 21.3N 71.2W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL032006 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 04.08.2006 21.3N 71.2W WEAK 00UTC 05.08.2006 21.2N 73.9W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 05.08.2006 21.5N 76.1W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 06.08.2006 21.3N 78.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 06.08.2006 21.5N 80.8W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 07.08.2006 22.3N 83.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 07.08.2006 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH EX TROPICAL DEPRESSION GILMA ANALYSED POSITION : 17.2N 111.6W ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP082006 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 04.08.2006 17.2N 111.6W WEAK 00UTC 05.08.2006 18.5N 113.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 05.08.2006 19.2N 114.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 06.08.2006 19.8N 115.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 06.08.2006 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 041750 ** WTCA43 TJSJ 041755 *** TCPSP3 BOLETIN TORMENTA TROPICAL CHRIS ADVERTENCIA INTERMEDIA NUMERO 16A NWS TCP/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL AL032006 2 PM AST VIERNES 4 DE AGOSTO DE 2006 ...CENTRO DE CHRIS MOVIENDOSE A TRAVES DE TURCOS Y CAICOS... UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL ESTA EN EFECTO PARA TURKS Y CAICOS Y PARA LA PARTE SURESTE DE LAS BAHAMAS...INCLUYENDO ACKLINS... CROOKED ISLAND...LAS INAGUAS...MAYAGUANA...Y LAS ISLAS RAGGED. UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SIGNIFICA QUE CONDICIONES DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SON POSIBLES DENTRO DEL AREA BAJO AVISO DENTRO DE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. UNA VIGILANCIA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL ESTA EN EFECTO PARA LONG ISLAND Y EXUMAS EN LAS BAHAMAS CENTRALES. UNA VIGILANCIA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SIGNIFICA QUE CONDICIONES DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SON POSIBLES DENTRO DEL AREA BAJO VIGILANCIA...GENERALMENTE DENTRO DE LAS PROXIMAS 36 HORAS. UNA VIGILANCIA O AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL PUEDE SER REQUERIDA PARA PORCIONES DE LA COSTA NORTE DEL ESTE CUBA MAS TARDE HOY. LOS INTERESES EN EL RESTO DE CUBA...COMO TAMBIEN EL SUR DE LA FLORIDA Y LOS CAYOS DE LA FLORIDA..DEBEN DE VIGILAR DE CERCA EL PROGRESO DE CHRIS. PARA INFORMACION ESPECIFICA PARA SU AREA...INCLUYENDO POSIBLES VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS PARA AREAS TERRESTRES...FAVOR DE REFERIRSE A LOS PRODUCTOS EMITIDOS POR SU OFICINA METEOROLOGICA LOCAL. A LAS 2PM AST...1800Z...EL AMPLIO CENTRO DE LA DEPRESION TROPICAL CHRIS ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 21.4 NORTE...LONGITUD 72.2 OESTE O COMO A 25 MILLAS...40 KILOMETROS...AL SUR DE PROVIDENCIALES Y COMO A 360 MILLAS...580 KILOMETROS...AL ESTE DE CAMAGUEY CUBA. LA DEPRESION SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL OESTE A CERCA DE 12 MPH...19 KILOMETROS POR HORA...Y ESTE MOVIMIENTO GENERAL SE ESPERA POR LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. ESTE MOVIMIENTO DEBE DE TRAER EL CENTRO DE CHRIS A TRAVES DE LAS BAHAMAS DEL SUR HOY. LOS VIENTOS SOSTENIDOS ESTAN EN CERCA DE 35 MPH...55 KM/HR...CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. SE ESPERAR POCOS CAMBIOS DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. SIN EMBARGO...CUALQUIER REINTENSIFICACION PUEDE DESARROLLAR A CHRIS NUEVAMENTE A TORMENTA TROPICAL. LA PRESION MINIMA CENTRAL ESTIMADA ES DE 1012 MB...29.88 PULGADAS. SE ESPERA QUE CHRIS PRODUZCA ACUMULACIONES TOTALES DE LLUVIA DE 1 A 2 PULGADAS A TRAVES DE LA REPUBLICA DOMINICANA...EL SURESTE DE LAS BAHAMAS...TURKS Y CAICOS...HAITI Y EL ESTE DE CUBA...CON TOTALES AISLADOS DE HASTA 4 PULGADAS EN TERRENOS MAS ALTOS HASTA ESTA NOCHE. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 2 PM AST...21.4 NORTE...72.2 OESTE. MOVIMIENTO HACIA...EL OESTE A CERCA DE 12 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS...35 MPH. PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA...1012 MILIBARAS. LA PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 500 PM AST. $$