** WTPQ20 BABJ 040600 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TS PRAPIROON 0606 (0606) INITIAL TIME 040600 UTC 00HR 22.7N 108.9E 992HPA 18M/S 30KTS 350KM P12HR WNW 15KM/H P+24HR 23.1N 106.3E 1002HPA 15M/S= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 040600 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TS 0606 PRAPIROON (0606) DOWNGRADED FROM STS ANALYSIS PSTN 040600UTC 22.9N 109.0E FAIR MOVE NW 08KT PRES 990HPA MXWD 045KT 30KT 240NM EAST 200NM WEST FORECAST 24HF 050600UTC 22.6N 105.4E 80NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION = ** WTJP21 RJTD 040600 *** WARNING 040600. WARNING VALID 050600. WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS. GALE WARNING. TROPICAL STORM 0606 PRAPIROON (0606) DOWNGRADED FROM SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 990 HPA AT 22.9N 109.0E SOUTH CHINA MOVING NORTHWEST 08 KNOTS. POSITION FAIR. MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 240 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 200 MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION FOR 050600UTC AT 22.6N 105.4E WITH 80 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 998 HPA. BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTKO20 RKSL 040600 *** KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 7 NAME TS 0606 PRAPIROON ANALYSIS POSITION 040600UTC 22.9N 109.0E MOVEMENT NW 8KT PRES/VMAX 990HPA 45KT FORECAST 12HR POSITION 041800UTC 23.2N 107.2E WITHIN 45NM PRES/VMAX 995HPA 41KT 24HR POSITION 050600UTC 23.3N 105.6E WITHIN 0NM PRES 1000HPA KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION. ** WTPQ30 RJTD 040600 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING REASONING NO. 8 FOR TS 0606 PRAPIROON (0606) 1.GENERAL COMMENTS REASONING OF PROGNOSIS THIS TIME IS SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS ONE. POSITION FORECAST IS MAINLY BASED ON NWP AND PERSISTENCY. 2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION NOTHING PARTICULAR TO EXPLAIN. 3.MOTION FORECAST POSITION ACCURACY AT 040600 UTC IS FAIR. TS WILL MOVE AT THE SAME SPEED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS DECELERATE. TS WILL MOVE WEST FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. 4.INTENSITY FORECAST TS WILL BE GRADED DOWN TO TD WITHIN 24 HOURS. TS WILL WEAKEN BECAUSE CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURE NEAR CYCLONE CENTER HAS BECOME WARMER FI-NUMBER WILL BE 2.0 AFTER 24 HOURS.= ** WTPQ20 BABJ 040700 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TS PRAPIROON 0606 (0606) INITIAL TIME 040700 UTC 00HR 22.9N 108.8E 992HPA 18M/S 30KTS 350KM P12HR WNW 15KM/H= ** WTCA43 TJSJ 040808 *** TCPSP3 BOLETIN TORMENTA TROPICAL CHRIS ADVERTENCIA INTERMEDIA NUMERO 14A NWS TCP/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL AL032006 2 AM AST VIERNES 3 DE AGOSTO DE 2006 ...CHRIS SE ENCAMINA HACIA TURKS Y CAICOS... UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL ESTA EN EFECTO PARA TURKS Y CAICOS Y PARA LA PARTE SURESTE DE LAS BAHAMAS...INCLUYENDO ACKLINS... CROOKED ISLAND...LAS INAGUAS...MAYAGUANA...Y LAS ISLAS RAGGED. UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SIGNIFICA QUE SE ESPERAN CONDICIONES DE TORMENTA TROPICAL DENTRO DEL AREA DEL AVISO DENTRO DE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. UNA VIGILANCIA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL PARA LONG ISLAND Y LAS EXUMAS EN EL CENTRO DE LAS BAHAMAS. UNA VIGILANCIA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SIGNIFICA QUE CONDICIONES DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SON POSIBLES EN EL AREA DE LA VIGILANCIA...GENERALMENTE DENTRO DE 36 HORAS. UNA VIGILANCIA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL ESTA EN EFECTO PARA LA COSTA NORTE DE HAITI DESDE LA MOLE ST. NICOLAS AL ESTE HASTA SAMANA EN LA REPUBLICA DOMINICANA. UNA VIGILANCIA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SIGNIFICA QUE CONDICIONES DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SON POSIBLES DENTRO DEL AREA DE LA VIGILANCIA...EN ESTE CASO DENTRO DE 12 A 24 HORAS. PARA INFORMACION ESPECIFICA PARA SU AREA...INCLUYENDO POSIBLES VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS PARA AREAS TERRESTRES...FAVOR DE REFERIRSE A LOS PRODUCTOS EMITIDOS POR SU OFICINA METEOROLOGICA LOCAL. A LAS 2 AM AST...0600Z...EL CENTRO DE LA TORMENTA TROPICAL CHRIS ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 21.0 NORTE...LONGITUD 70.0 OESTE O COMO A 80 MILLAS...130 KM...AL ESTE SURESTE DE GRAND TURK ISLAND. CHRIS SE ESTA MOVIENDO AL OESTE A CERCA DE 13 MPH...21 KM/HR...Y SE ESPERA QUE CONTINUE EN ESTE MOVIMIENTO DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. EN ESTA TRAYECTORIA EL CENTRO DE CHRIS SE MOVERA CERCA DE TURKS Y CAICOS Y EL SURESTE DE LAS BAHAMAS MAS TARDE HOY. LOS VIENTOS SOSTENIDOS ESTAN EN CERCA DE 40 MPH...65 KM/HR...CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. SE PRONOSTICA POCO CAMBIO EN FUERZA DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. UN AVION DE RECONOSCIMIENTO ACTUALMENTE SE ACERCA A CHRIS PARA VERIFICAR SU INTENSIDAD. LOS VIENTOS DE FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SE EXTIENDEN HACIA AFUERA HASTA 70 MILLAS...110 KM...MAYORMENTE AL ESTE DEL CENTRO. LA PRESION MINIMA CENTRAL ESTIMADA ES DE 1012 MB...29.88 PULGADAS. SE ESPERA QUE CHRIS PRODUZCA ACUMULACIONES TOTALES DE LLUVIA DE 1 A 3 PULGADAS A TRAVES DE PUERTO RICO...LA REPUBLICA DOMINICANA... EL SURESTE DE LAS BAHAMAS...TURKS Y CAICOS...HAITI Y EL ESTE DE CUBA...CON TOTALES AISLADOS DE HASTA 5 PULGADAS EN TERRENOS MAS ALTOS HASTA HOY. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 2 AM AST...21.0 NORTE...70.0 OESTE. MOVIMIENTO HACIA...EL OESTE A CERCA DE 13 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS...40 MPH. PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA...1012 MILIBARAS. LA PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 500 AM AST. $$ PRONOSTICADOR MAINELLI/AVILA ** WTNT33 KNHC 040833 *** TCPAT3 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM CHRIS ADVISORY NUMBER 15 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032006 500 AM AST FRI AUG 04 2006 ...TENACIOUS CHRIS BARELY HOLDING ON TO TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE TURKS AND CAICOS...AND FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...INCLUDING THE ACKLINS...CROOKED ISLAND...THE INAGUAS...MAYAGUANA...AND THE RAGGED ISLANDS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR LONG ISLAND AND THE EXUMAS IN THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHERN COAST OF HISPANIOLA FROM LA MOLE ST. NICOLAS HAITI EASTWARD TO SAMANA DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 12 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH OR WARNING WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTH COAST OF EASTERN CUBA LATER TODAY. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 500 AM AST...0900Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CHRIS WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 70.9 WEST OR ABOUT 45 MILES... 70 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF GRAND TURK ISLAND. CHRIS IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 15 MPH...24 KM/HR...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS 1012 MB...29.88 INCHES. CHRIS IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ACROSS THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...THE TURKS AND CAICOS...THE SOUTHEAST BAHAMAS...HAITI AND EASTERN CUBA...WITH ISOLATED TOTALS OF UP TO 6 INCHES OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN THROUGH TODAY. REPEATING THE 500 AM AST POSITION...20.9 N...70.9 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST NEAR 15 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1012 MB. AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 800 AM AST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1100 AM AST. $$ FORECASTER MAINELLI/AVILA ** WTNT43 KNHC 040834 *** TCDAT3 TROPICAL STORM CHRIS DISCUSSION NUMBER 15 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032006 500 AM EDT FRI AUG 04 2006 CHRIS HAS MANAGED TO REMAIN AS A TROPICAL STORM ALTHOUGH CONVECTION TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION IS CURRENTLY WEAKENING. A HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS INVESTIGATING THE CYCLONE AND FOUND A 53 KT FLIGHT LEVEL WIND. HOWEVER...THE WIND WAS MEASURED IN A THUNDERSTORM WHICH IS NOT REPRESENTATIVE OF THE ACTUAL INTENSITY. OVERALL THE AIRCRAFT HAS ONLY MEASURED 30 TO 35 KT WINDS AT FLIGHT LEVEL. EVEN THOUGH THESE WINDS DO NOT CURRENTLY SUPPORT A TROPICAL STORM...CONVECTION IS STILL PRESENT AND CLOSE TO THE CENTER...SO THE PRUDENT COURSE OF ACTION IS TO MAINTAIN AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 35 KT. HOWEVER...CHRIS COULD EASILY BE DOWNGRADED TO A DEPRESSION IN THE NEXT ADVISORY. THE CYCLONE IS SANDWICHED BETWEEN TWO LARGE UPPER-LEVEL LOWS...AND IS STILL BEING AFFECTED BY MODERATE SHEAR. A POSSIBILITY EXISTS THAT THE SHEAR COULD RELAX IN THE NEAR TERM WHICH WOULD MAINTAIN CHRIS AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE AS INDICATED IN THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST...AND THIS IS BASICALLY THE SOLUTION OF THE SHIPS MODEL. MOST OF THE OTHER INTENSITY GUIDANCE SUGGESTS DISSIPATION. THE 6-HOURLY AVERAGED MOTION IS 275/13...WHICH IS A SLIGHTLY FASTER MOTION THAN EARLIER. THE STEERING PATTERN REMAINS UNCHANGED AND CHRIS IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ON A WESTERLY TRACK TO THE SOUTH OF A STRONG MID-LEVEL RIDGE FOR THE NEXT 5 DAYS...IF IT LASTS THAT LONG. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS VIRTUALLY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ONE...AND FOLLOWS THE GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 04/0900Z 20.9N 70.9W 35 KT 12HR VT 04/1800Z 21.2N 72.8W 35 KT 24HR VT 05/0600Z 21.5N 75.3W 35 KT 36HR VT 05/1800Z 22.0N 78.0W 35 KT 48HR VT 06/0600Z 22.6N 80.6W 30 KT...INLAND 72HR VT 07/0600Z 24.0N 85.5W 35 KT 96HR VT 08/0600Z 24.5N 91.0W 40 KT 120HR VT 09/0600Z 25.0N 96.0W 40 KT $$ FORECASTER MAINELLI/AVILA ** WTNT23 KNHC 040834 *** TCMAT3 TROPICAL STORM CHRIS FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 15 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032006 0900 UTC FRI AUG 04 2006 A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE TURKS AND CAICOS...AND FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...INCLUDING THE ACKLINS...CROOKED ISLAND...THE INAGUAS...MAYAGUANA...AND THE RAGGED ISLANDS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR LONG ISLAND AND THE EXUMAS IN THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHERN COAST OF HISPANIOLA FROM LA MOLE ST. NICOLAS HAITI EASTWARD TO SAMANA DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 12 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH OR WARNING WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTH COAST OF EASTERN CUBA LATER TODAY. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.9N 70.9W AT 04/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 13 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1012 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 60NE 60SE 0SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 90SE 45SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.9N 70.9W AT 04/0900Z AT 04/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.8N 70.2W FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 21.2N 72.8W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 21.5N 75.3W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 22.0N 78.0W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 22.6N 80.6W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 24.0N 85.5W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 0SW 0NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 08/0600Z 24.5N 91.0W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 09/0600Z 25.0N 96.0W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.9N 70.9W NEXT ADVISORY AT 04/1500Z $$ FORECASTER MAINELLI/AVILA ** WTPQ20 BABJ 040800 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TD PRAPIROON 0606 (0606) INITIAL TIME 040800 UTC 00HR 23.1N 108.7E 992HPA 15M/S= P12HR NW 15KM/H= ** WTCA43 TJSJ 040845 *** TCPSP3 BOLETIN TORMENTA TROPICAL CHRIS ADVERTENCIA INTERMEDIA NUMERO 15 NWS TCP/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL AL032006 5 AM AST VIERNES 3 DE AGOSTO DE 2006 ...CHRIS SE AFERA CON TENACIDAD A FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL... UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL ESTA EN EFECTO PARA TURKS Y CAICOS Y PARA LA PARTE SURESTE DE LAS BAHAMAS...INCLUYENDO ACKLINS... CROOKED ISLAND...LAS INAGUAS...MAYAGUANA...Y LAS ISLAS RAGGED. UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SIGNIFICA QUE SE ESPERAN CONDICIONES DE TORMENTA TROPICAL DENTRO DEL AREA DEL AVISO DENTRO DE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. UNA VIGILANCIA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL PARA LONG ISLAND Y LAS EXUMAS EN EL CENTRO DE LAS BAHAMAS. UNA VIGILANCIA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SIGNIFICA QUE CONDICIONES DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SON POSIBLES EN EL AREA DE LA VIGILANCIA...GENERALMENTE DENTRO DE 36 HORAS. UNA VIGILANCIA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL ESTA EN EFECTO PARA LA COSTA NORTE DE HAITI DESDE LA MOLE ST. NICOLAS AL ESTE HASTA SAMANA EN LA REPUBLICA DOMINICANA. UNA VIGILANCIA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SIGNIFICA QUE CONDICIONES DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SON POSIBLES DENTRO DEL AREA DE LA VIGILANCIA...EN ESTE CASO DENTRO DE 12 HORAS. UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL PROBABLEMENTE SEA REQUERIDO PARA PORCIONES DE LA COSTA NORTE DE CUBA ORIENTAL MAS TARDE HOY. PARA INFORMACION ESPECIFICA PARA SU AREA...INCLUYENDO POSIBLES VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS PARA AREAS TERRESTRES...FAVOR DE REFERIRSE A LOS PRODUCTOS EMITIDOS POR SU OFICINA METEOROLOGICA LOCAL. A LAS 5 AM AST...0900Z...EL CENTRO DE LA TORMENTA TROPICAL CHRIS ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 20.9 NORTE...LONGITUD 70.9 OESTE O COMO A 45 MILLAS...70 KM...AL SUR SURESTE DE GRAND TURK ISLAND. CHRIS SE ESTA MOVIENDO AL OESTE A CERCA DE 15 MPH...24 KM/HR...Y SE ESPERA QUE CONTINUE EN ESTE MOVIMIENTO DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LOS VIENTOS SOSTENIDOS ESTAN EN CERCA DE 40 MPH...65 KM/HR...CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. NO SE ESPERA CAMBIO SIGNIFICATIVO EN FUERZA DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LOS VIENTOS DE FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SE EXTIENDEN HACIA AFUERA HASTA 70 MILLAS...110 KM...MAYORMENTE AL ESTE DEL CENTRO. LA PRESION MINIMA CENTRAL REPORTADA POR UN AVION DE RECONOSCIMIENTO FUE DE 1012 MB...29.88 PULGADAS. SE ESPERA QUE CHRIS PRODUZCA ACUMULACIONES TOTALES DE LLUVIA DE 2 A 4 PULGADAS A TRAVES DE LA REPUBLICA DOMINICANA...EL SURESTE DE LAS BAHAMAS...TURKS Y CAICOS...HAITI Y EL ESTE DE CUBA...CON TOTALES AISLADOS DE HASTA 6 PULGADAS EN TERRENOS MAS ALTOS HASTA HOY. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 5 AM AST...20.9 NORTE...70.9 OESTE. MOVIMIENTO HACIA...EL OESTE A CERCA DE 15 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS...40 MPH. PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA...1012 MILIBARAS. UNA ADVERTENCIA INTERMEDIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 800 AM AST SEGUIDA POR LA ADVERTENCIA COMPLETA A LAS 11 AM. $$ PRONOSTICADOR MAINELLI/AVILA ** WTPQ20 BABJ 040900 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TD PRAPIROON 0606 (0606) INITIAL TIME 040900 UTC 00HR 23.2N 108.6E 992HPA 15M/S= P12HR NW 15KM/H= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 040900 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TS 0606 PRAPIROON (0606) ANALYSIS PSTN 040900UTC 23.1N 108.6E FAIR MOVE NW 08KT PRES 992HPA MXWD 045KT 30KT 240NM EAST 200NM WEST FORECAST 24HF 050900UTC 23.1N 105.2E 80NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION = ** WTPQ20 BABJ 041000 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TD PRAPIROON 0606 (0606) INITIAL TIME 041000 UTC 00HR 23.3N 108.4E 992HPA 15M/S= P12HR NW 15KM/H= ** WTPQ20 BABJ 041100 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TD PRAPIROON 0606 (0606) INITIAL TIME 041100 UTC 00HR 23.4N 108.3E 994HPA 12M/S= P12HR NW 15KM/H= ** WTNT33 KNHC 041138 *** TCPAT3 BULLETIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION CHRIS INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 15A NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032006 800 AM AST FRI AUG 04 2006 ...CHRIS WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE TURKS AND CAICOS...AND FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...INCLUDING THE ACKLINS...CROOKED ISLAND...THE INAGUAS...MAYAGUANA...AND THE RAGGED ISLANDS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR LONG ISLAND AND THE EXUMAS IN THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS. THESE WATCHES AND WARNINGS WILL LIKELY BE DISCONTINUED LATER THIS MORNING. AT 8 AM...1200 UTC...THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE NORTHERN COAST OF HISPANIOLA FROM LA MOLE ST. NICOLAS HAITI EASTWARD TO SAMANA DOMINICAN REPUBLIC HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 800 AM AST...1200Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION CHRIS WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 71.1 WEST OR ABOUT 20 MILES... 30 KM...SOUTH OF GRAND TURK ISLAND. CHRIS IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 13 MPH...21 KM/HR...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SATELLITE IMAGES AND DATA FROM A RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT CHRIS HAS WEAKENED TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. HOWEVER...THE POSSIBILITY REMAINS FOR CHRIS TO REGAIN TROPICAL STORM STATUS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS 1012 MB...29.88 INCHES. CHRIS IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ACROSS THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...THE TURKS AND CAICOS...THE SOUTHEAST BAHAMAS...HAITI AND EASTERN CUBA...WITH ISOLATED TOTALS OF UP TO 6 INCHES OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN THROUGH TODAY. REPEATING THE 800 AM AST POSITION...21.2 N...71.1 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST NEAR 13 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1012 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 1100 AM AST. $$ FORECASTER MAINELLI/AVILA