** WTSR20 WSSS 031800 *** NO STORM WARNING= ** WTCA43 TJSJ 040018 *** TCPSP3 BOLETIN TORMENTA TROPICAL CHRIS ADVERTENCIA INTERMEDIA NUMERO 13A NWS TCP/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL AL032006 800 PM AST JUEVES 3 DE AGOSTO DE 2006 ...CHRIS MANTENIENDO FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL... A LAS 8 PM AST...0000Z...EL GOBIERNO DE LA REPUBLICA DOMINICANA HA MODIFICADO LA VIGILANCIA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL...QUE ESTA AHORA EN EFECTO PARA LA COSTA NORTE DE LA REPUBLICA DOMINICANA DESDE LA FRONTERA NORTE CON HAITI AL ESTE HASTA SEMANA. UNA VIGILANCIA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SIGNIFICA QUE CONDICIONES DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SON POSIBLES DENTRO DEL AREA DE LA VIGILANCIA...EN ESTE CASO DENTRO DE LAS PROXIMAS 12 A 24 HORAS. CONTINUA EN EFECTO UNA VIGILANCIA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL PARA LAS ISLAS TURKS Y CAICOS...Y PARA LAS BAHAMAS SURESTE...INCLUYENDO LAS ACKLINS ...CROOKED ISLAND...LAS INAGUAS...MAYAGUANA...Y LAS ISLAS RAGGED. PARA INFORMACION ESPECIFICA PARA SU AREA...INCLUYENDO POSIBLES VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS PARA AREAS TERRESTRES...FAVOR DE REFERIRSE A LOS PRODUCTOS EMITIDOS POR SU OFICINA METEOROLOGICA LOCAL. A LAS 800 PM AST...0000Z...EL CENTRO DE LA TORMENTA TROPICAL CHRIS ESTABA LOCALIZADA CERCA DE LA LATITUD 20.7 NORTE...LONGITUD 68.7 OESTE O COMO A 165 MILLAS...265 KM...AL ESTE-SURESTE DE GRAND TURK ISLAND. CHRIS SE ESTA MOVIENDO JUSTO AL NORTE DEL OESTE CERCA DE 10 MPH...17 KM/HR...Y SE ESPERA QUE CONTINUE EN ESTE MOVIMIENTO DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. EN ESTA TRAYECTORIA EL CENTRO DE CHRIS ESTARA SOBRE O CERCA DE LAS TURKS Y CAICOS EL VIERNES. INFORMES DE UN AVION DE RECONOCIMIENTO DE UNA UNIDAD DE LA RESERVA DE LA FUERZA AEREA INDICAN QUE LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS ESTAN EN CERCA DE 40 MPH...65 KM/HR...CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. SE ESPERA QUE CHRIS SE DEBILITE A DEPRESION TROPICAL ESTA NOCHE O EL VIERNES. LOS VIENTOS DE FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SE EXTIENDEN HACIA AFUERA HASTA 80 MILLAS...130 KM...MAYORMENTE AL ESTE DEL CENTRO. LA PRESION MINIMA CENTRAL INFORMADA POR EL AVION DE RECONOCIMIENTO ES DE 1012 MB...29.88 PULGADAS. SE ESPERA QUE CHRIS PRODUZCA ACUMULACIONES TOTALES DE LLUVIA DE 1 A 3 PULGADAS CON CANTIDADES AISLADAS DE 5 PULGADAS EN LAS AREAS MAS ELEVADAS DE PUERTO RICO...ISLAS VIRGENES AMERICANAS Y BRITANICAS Y LA REPUBLICA DOMINICANA. ACUMULACIONES TOTALES DE LLUVIA DE 1 A 2 PULGADAS SON POSIBLES EN EL SURESTE DE LAS BAHAMAS...LAS ISLAS TURKS Y CAICOS Y EL NORTE DE HAITI HASTA EL VIERNES. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 8 PM AST...20.7 NORTE...68.7 OESTE. MOVIMIENTO HACIA...EL OESTE A CERCA DE 10 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS...40 MPH. PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA...1012 MILIBARAS. LA PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 1100 PM. $$ PRONOSTICADOR BLAKE/KNABB ** WTNT33 KNHC 040019 *** TCPAT3 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM CHRIS INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 13A...CORRECTED NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032006 800 PM AST THU AUG 03 2006 ...CORRECTED SPELLING OF SAMANA IN THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC... ...CHRIS HOLDING ON TO TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH... AT 800 PM AST...0000Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC HAS MODIFIED THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH... WHICH IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTH COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM THE NORTHERN BORDER WITH HAITI EASTWARD TO SAMANA. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH ALSO IS IN EFFECT FOR THE TURKS AND CAICOS... AND FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...INCLUDING THE ACKLINS...CROOKED ISLAND...THE INAGUAS...MAYAGUANA...AND THE RAGGED ISLANDS. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 800 PM AST...0000Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CHRIS WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 68.7 WEST OR ABOUT 165 MILES...265 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF GRAND TURK ISLAND. CHRIS IS MOVING JUST NORTH OF DUE WEST NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/HR... AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THIS TRACK THE CENTER OF CHRIS WILL BE OVER OR NEAR THE TURKS AND CAICOS ON FRIDAY. REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. CHRIS COULD WEAKEN TO A DEPRESSION TONIGHT OR ON FRIDAY. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 80 MILES...130 KM... MAINLY TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY THE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE WAS 1012 MB...29.88 INCHES. CHRIS IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES WITH ISOLATED TOTALS OF UP TO 5 INCHES OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF PUERTO RICO...THE U.S. AND BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS...AND THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE SOUTHEAST BAHAMAS...THE TURKS AND CAICOS...AND NORTHERN HAITI THROUGH FRIDAY. REPEATING THE 800 PM AST POSITION...20.7 N...68.7 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST NEAR 10 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1012 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 1100 PM AST. $$ FORECASTER BLAKE/KNABB ** WTCA43 TJSJ 040025 CCA *** TCPSP3 BOLETIN TORMENTA TROPICAL CHRIS ADVERTENCIA INTERMEDIA NUMERO 13A NWS TCP/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL AL032006 800 PM AST JUEVES 3 DE AGOSTO DE 2006 ...CORRIGIENDO EL NOMBRE DE SAMANA EN LA REPUBLICA DOMINICANA ...CHRIS MANTENIENDO FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL... A LAS 8 PM AST...0000Z...EL GOBIERNO DE LA REPUBLICA DOMINICANA HA MODIFICADO LA VIGILANCIA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL...QUE ESTA AHORA EN EFECTO PARA LA COSTA NORTE DE LA REPUBLICA DOMINICANA DESDE LA FRONTERA NORTE CON HAITI AL ESTE HASTA SAMANA. UNA VIGILANCIA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SIGNIFICA QUE CONDICIONES DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SON POSIBLES DENTRO DEL AREA DE LA VIGILANCIA...EN ESTE CASO DENTRO DE LAS PROXIMAS 12 A 24 HORAS. CONTINUA EN EFECTO UNA VIGILANCIA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL PARA LAS ISLAS TURKS Y CAICOS...Y PARA LAS BAHAMAS SURESTE...INCLUYENDO LAS ACKLINS ...CROOKED ISLAND...LAS INAGUAS...MAYAGUANA...Y LAS ISLAS RAGGED. PARA INFORMACION ESPECIFICA PARA SU AREA...INCLUYENDO POSIBLES VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS PARA AREAS TERRESTRES...FAVOR DE REFERIRSE A LOS PRODUCTOS EMITIDOS POR SU OFICINA METEOROLOGICA LOCAL. A LAS 800 PM AST...0000Z...EL CENTRO DE LA TORMENTA TROPICAL CHRIS ESTABA LOCALIZADA CERCA DE LA LATITUD 20.7 NORTE...LONGITUD 68.7 OESTE O COMO A 165 MILLAS...265 KM...AL ESTE-SURESTE DE GRAND TURK ISLAND. CHRIS SE ESTA MOVIENDO JUSTO AL NORTE DEL OESTE CERCA DE 10 MPH...17 KM/HR...Y SE ESPERA QUE CONTINUE EN ESTE MOVIMIENTO DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. EN ESTA TRAYECTORIA EL CENTRO DE CHRIS ESTARA SOBRE O CERCA DE LAS TURKS Y CAICOS EL VIERNES. INFORMES DE UN AVION DE RECONOCIMIENTO DE UNA UNIDAD DE LA RESERVA DE LA FUERZA AEREA INDICAN QUE LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS ESTAN EN CERCA DE 40 MPH...65 KM/HR...CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. SE ESPERA QUE CHRIS SE DEBILITE A DEPRESION TROPICAL ESTA NOCHE O EL VIERNES. LOS VIENTOS DE FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SE EXTIENDEN HACIA AFUERA HASTA 80 MILLAS...130 KM...MAYORMENTE AL ESTE DEL CENTRO. LA PRESION MINIMA CENTRAL INFORMADA POR EL AVION DE RECONOCIMIENTO ES DE 1012 MB...29.88 PULGADAS. SE ESPERA QUE CHRIS PRODUZCA ACUMULACIONES TOTALES DE LLUVIA DE 1 A 3 PULGADAS CON CANTIDADES AISLADAS DE 5 PULGADAS EN LAS AREAS MAS ELEVADAS DE PUERTO RICO...ISLAS VIRGENES AMERICANAS Y BRITANICAS Y LA REPUBLICA DOMINICANA. ACUMULACIONES TOTALES DE LLUVIA DE 1 A 2 PULGADAS SON POSIBLES EN EL SURESTE DE LAS BAHAMAS...LAS ISLAS TURKS Y CAICOS Y EL NORTE DE HAITI HASTA EL VIERNES. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 8 PM AST...20.7 NORTE...68.7 OESTE. MOVIMIENTO HACIA...EL OESTE A CERCA DE 10 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS...40 MPH. PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA...1012 MILIBARAS. LA PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 1100 PM. $$ PRONOSTICADOR BLAKE/KNABB ** WTPQ20 BABJ 040000 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TS PRAPIROON 0606 (0606) INITIAL TIME 040000 UTC 00HR 22.2N 109.7E 985HPA 20M/S 30KTS 400KM P12HR WNW 15KM/H P+24HR 22.9N 106.6E 996HPA 18M/S P+48HR 23.1N 104.0E 1005HPA 12M/S= ** WTJP21 RJTD 040000 *** WARNING 040000. WARNING VALID 050000. WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS. STORM WARNING. SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 0606 PRAPIROON (0606) 985 HPA AT 22.2N 109.6E SOUTH CHINA MOVING WESTNORTHWEST 07 KNOTS. POSITION FAIR. MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 240 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 200 MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION FOR 050000UTC AT 22.5N 106.1E WITH 80 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 996 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. FORECAST POSITION FOR 060000UTC AT 22.3N 104.7E WITH 150 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 998 HPA. BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 040000 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME STS 0606 PRAPIROON (0606) ANALYSIS PSTN 040000UTC 22.2N 109.6E FAIR MOVE WNW 07KT PRES 985HPA MXWD 050KT 30KT 240NM EAST 200NM WEST FORECAST 24HF 050000UTC 22.5N 106.1E 80NM 70% MOVE W 08KT PRES 996HPA MXWD 035KT 48HF 060000UTC 22.3N 104.7E 150NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION = ** WTPQ30 RJTD 040000 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING REASONING NO. 7 FOR STS 0606 PRAPIROON (0606) 1.GENERAL COMMENTS REASONING OF PROGNOSIS THIS TIME IS SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS ONE. POSITION FORECAST IS MAINLY BASED ON NWP AND PERSISTENCY. 2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION NOTHING PARTICULAR TO EXPLAIN. 3.MOTION FORECAST POSITION ACCURACY AT 040000 UTC IS FAIR. STS WILL MOVE AT THE SAME SPEED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS THEN DECELERATE. STS WILL MOVE WEST FOR THE NEXT 36 HOURS. 4.INTENSITY FORECAST STS WILL BE GRADED DOWN TO TS WITHIN 24 HOURS. STS WILL WEAKEN BECAUSE CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURE NEAR CYCLONE CENTER HAS BECOME WARMER FI-NUMBER WILL BE 2.5 AFTER 24 HOURS.= ** WTPQ20 BABJ 040100 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TS PRAPIROON 0606 (0606) INITIAL TIME 040100 UTC 00HR 22.2N 109.5E 985HPA 20M/S 30KTS 400KM P12HR WNW 15KM/H= ** WTSS20 VHHH 040145 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING SEVERE TROPICAL STORM PRAPIROON (0606) HAS WEAKENED INTO A TROPICAL STORM WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 988 HECTOPASCALS. AT 040000 UTC, IT WAS CENTRED WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES OF TWO TWO POINT TWO DEGREES NORTH (22.2 N) ONE ZERO NINE POINT FOUR DEGREES EAST (109.4 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE WEST AT ABOUT 7 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 45 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 90 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 270 NAUTICAL MILES OVER EASTERN SEMICIRCLE, 180 NAUTICAL MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 050000 UTC TWO TWO POINT THREE DEGREES NORTH (22.3 N) ONE ZERO SIX POINT SEVEN DEGREES EAST (106.7 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 25 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 060000 UTC TWO ONE POINT FOUR DEGREES NORTH (21.4 N) ONE ZERO FOUR POINT FOUR DEGREES EAST (104.4 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 15 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 070000 UTC DISSIPATED OVER LAND. ** WTSS20 VHHH 040145 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING SEVERE TROPICAL STORM PRAPIROON (0606) HAS WEAKENED INTO A TROPICAL STORM WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 988 HECTOPASCALS. AT 040000 UTC, IT WAS CENTRED WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES OF TWO TWO POINT TWO DEGREES NORTH (22.2 N) ONE ZERO NINE POINT FOUR DEGREES EAST (109.4 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE WEST AT ABOUT 7 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 45 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 90 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 270 NAUTICAL MILES OVER EASTERN SEMICIRCLE, 180 NAUTICAL MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 050000 UTC TWO TWO POINT THREE DEGREES NORTH (22.3 N) ONE ZERO SIX POINT SEVEN DEGREES EAST (106.7 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 25 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 060000 UTC TWO ONE POINT FOUR DEGREES NORTH (21.4 N) ONE ZERO FOUR POINT FOUR DEGREES EAST (104.4 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 15 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 070000 UTC DISSIPATED OVER LAND. ** WTPQ20 BABJ 040200 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TS PRAPIROON 0606 (0606) INITIAL TIME 040200 UTC 00HR 22.2N 109.4E 985HPA 20M/S 30KTS 400KM P12HR WNW 15KM/H= ** WTNT23 KNHC 040240 *** TCMAT3 TROPICAL STORM CHRIS FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 14 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032006 0300 UTC FRI AUG 04 2006 AT 1100 PM AST...0300Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS UPGRADED THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH TO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE TURKS AND CAICOS...AND FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...INCLUDING THE ACKLINS...CROOKED ISLAND...THE INAGUAS...MAYAGUANA...AND THE RAGGED ISLANDS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AT 1100 PM AST...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR LONG ISLAND AND THE EXUMAS IN THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. AT 1100 PM AST...A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS ISSUED FOR THE NORTHERN COAST OF HAITI FROM LA MOLE ST. NICOLAS EASTWARD TO THE NORTHERN BORDER WITH THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTH COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM THE NORTHERN BORDER WITH HAITI EASTWARD TO SAMANA. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 12 TO 24 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.8N 69.3W AT 04/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1012 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 60NE 60SE 0SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 90SE 60SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.8N 69.3W AT 04/0300Z AT 04/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.7N 68.7W FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 21.0N 70.9W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 21.4N 73.4W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 21.8N 76.0W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 22.3N 78.9W...INLAND OVER CUBA MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 23.5N 84.0W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 08/0000Z 24.5N 89.0W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 09/0000Z 25.0N 94.5W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.8N 69.3W NEXT ADVISORY AT 04/0900Z $$ FORECASTER BLAKE/KNABB ** WTSS20 VHHH 040145 CCA *** CORRECTION TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING SEVERE TROPICAL STORM PRAPIROON (0606) HAS WEAKENED INTO A TROPICAL STORM WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 988 HECTOPASCALS. AT 040000 UTC, IT WAS CENTRED WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES OF TWO TWO POINT TWO DEGREES NORTH (22.2 N) ONE ZERO NINE POINT FOUR DEGREES EAST (109.4 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE WEST AT ABOUT 7 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 45 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 90 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 270 NAUTICAL MILES OVER EASTERN SEMICIRCLE, 180 NAUTICAL MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 050000 UTC TWO TWO POINT THREE DEGREES NORTH (22.3 N) ONE ZERO SIX POINT SEVEN DEGREES EAST (106.7 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 25 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 060000 UTC DISSIPATED OVER LAND. ** WTSS20 VHHH 040145 CCA *** CORRECTION TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING SEVERE TROPICAL STORM PRAPIROON (0606) HAS WEAKENED INTO A TROPICAL STORM WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 988 HECTOPASCALS. AT 040000 UTC, IT WAS CENTRED WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES OF TWO TWO POINT TWO DEGREES NORTH (22.2 N) ONE ZERO NINE POINT FOUR DEGREES EAST (109.4 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE WEST AT ABOUT 7 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 45 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 90 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 270 NAUTICAL MILES OVER EASTERN SEMICIRCLE, 180 NAUTICAL MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 050000 UTC TWO TWO POINT THREE DEGREES NORTH (22.3 N) ONE ZERO SIX POINT SEVEN DEGREES EAST (106.7 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 25 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 060000 UTC DISSIPATED OVER LAND. ** WTNT33 KNHC 040248 *** TCPAT3 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM CHRIS ADVISORY NUMBER 14 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032006 1100 PM AST THU AUG 03 2006 ...CHRIS MAINTAINS TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH... ...NEW WATCHES AND WARNINGS ISSUED... AT 1100 PM AST...0300Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS UPGRADED THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH TO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE TURKS AND CAICOS...AND FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...INCLUDING THE ACKLINS...CROOKED ISLAND...THE INAGUAS...MAYAGUANA...AND THE RAGGED ISLANDS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AT 1100 PM AST...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR LONG ISLAND AND THE EXUMAS IN THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. AT 1100 PM AST...A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS ISSUED FOR THE NORTHERN COAST OF HAITI FROM LA MOLE ST. NICOLAS EASTWARD TO THE NORTHERN BORDER WITH THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTH COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM THE NORTHERN BORDER WITH HAITI EASTWARD TO SAMANA. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 12 TO 24 HOURS. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 1100 PM AST...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CHRIS WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 69.3 WEST OR ABOUT 125 MILES...200 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF GRAND TURK ISLAND. CHRIS IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/HR...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THIS TRACK THE CENTER OF CHRIS WILL PASS NORTH OF HISPANIOLA... AND NEAR OR OVER THE TURKS AND CAICOS ON FRIDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM...MAINLY TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1012 MB...29.88 INCHES. CHRIS IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ACROSS PUERTO RICO...THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...THE SOUTHEAST BAHAMAS...THE TURKS AND CAICOS...HAITI AND EASTERN CUBA...WITH ISOLATED TOTALS OF UP TO 5 INCHES OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN THROUGH FRIDAY. REPEATING THE 1100 PM AST POSITION...20.8 N...69.3 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST NEAR 12 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1012 MB. AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 200 AM AST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 500 AM AST. $$ FORECASTER BLAKE/KNABB ** WTNT43 KNHC 040300 *** TCDAT3 TROPICAL STORM CHRIS DISCUSSION NUMBER 14 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032006 1100 PM EDT THU AUG 03 2006 DEEP CONVECTION HAS BEEN REDEVELOPING IN THE SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OF CHRIS TONIGHT WITH THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER NO LONGER FULLY EXPOSED. IN ADDITION...THE HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE FOUND PEAK FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 43 KT DURING ITS FINAL PASSES THROUGH THE STORM. THESE DATA INDICATE THAT CHRIS IS STILL A TROPICAL STORM WITH 35 KT MAXIMUM WINDS. WATER VAPOR IMAGES SHOW THE STORM APPROACHING THE COL BETWEEN A PAIR OF MIDDLE TO UPPER-LEVEL LOWS...ONE OVER FLORIDA AND THE OTHER A FEW HUNDRED MILES NORTHEAST OF PUERTO RICO. IF CHRIS REMAINS IN THE COL AREA... SHEAR IS FORECAST TO LESSEN BY ALL OF THE GLOBAL MODELS TOMORROW AND PERHAPS ALLOW CHRIS TO AT LEAST MAINTAIN ITS STRENGTH FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. SHIPS ALSO INDICATES THE STORM COULD STRENGTHEN A LITTLE BEFORE NEARING CUBA IN ABOUT 48 HOURS. SINCE THE CONVECTION AROUND THE STORM IS A RELATIVELY NEW FEATURE...THE INTENSITY FORECAST WILL INDICATE LITTLE CHANGE IN THE SHORT-TERM...A BLEND BETWEEN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND SHIPS. IF THE STORM SURVIVES ITS INTERACTION WITH CUBA...IT MIGHT FIND A LIGHTER SHEAR ENVIRONMENT OVER THE WARM GULF OF MEXICO AND THE INTENSITY FORECAST COULD BE CONSERVATIVE DURING THAT PERIOD. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 280/10... A TOUCH FASTER THAN BEFORE. A LOW TO MIDDLE-LEVEL RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN STRONG TO THE NORTH OF THE CYCLONE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...KEEPING THE MOTION GENERALLY A LITTLE NORTH OF DUE WEST. SOME ACCELERATION IS ALSO FORECAST AS THE CYCLONE PASSES DIRECTLY SOUTH OF THE CORE OF RIDGE AXIS. MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS HAVE NUDGED A LITTLE SOUTH TONIGHT AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS DISPLACED A LITTLE SOUTHWARD AS WELL. THIS NEW TRACK IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH THE CONSENSUS OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS THAT MAINTAIN THE CIRCULATION OF CHRIS. AFTER THE STORM ENTERS THE GULF OF MEXICO...A LARGE MIDDLE TO UPPER-LEVEL HIGH IS FORECAST OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL UNITED STATES. THIS HIGH COULD INDUCE A MORE WESTWARD MOTION IN THE LONG-TERM AND THIS IS REFLECTED IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 04/0300Z 20.8N 69.3W 35 KT 12HR VT 04/1200Z 21.0N 70.9W 35 KT 24HR VT 05/0000Z 21.4N 73.4W 35 KT 36HR VT 05/1200Z 21.8N 76.0W 35 KT 48HR VT 06/0000Z 22.3N 78.9W 35 KT...INLAND OVER CUBA 72HR VT 07/0000Z 23.5N 84.0W 30 KT 96HR VT 08/0000Z 24.5N 89.0W 35 KT 120HR VT 09/0000Z 25.0N 94.5W 40 KT $$ FORECASTER BLAKE/KNABB ** WTCA43 TJSJ 040304 *** TCPSP3 BOLETIN TORMENTA TROPICAL CHRIS ADVERTENCIA INTERMEDIA NUMERO 14 NWS TCP/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL AL032006 1100 PM AST JUEVES 3 DE AGOSTO DE 2006 ...CHRIS MANTENIENDO FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL... ...SE EMITEN NUEVAS VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS... A LAS 1100 PM AST...0300Z...EL GOBIERNO DE LAS BAHAMAS HA CAMBIADO LA VIGILANCIA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL A UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL PARA TURKS Y CAICOS...Y PARA LA PARTE SURESTE DE LAS BAHAMAS... INCLUYENDO ACKLINS...CROOKED ISLAND...LAS INAGUAS...MAYAGUANA...Y LAS ISLAS RAGGED. UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SIGNIFICA QUE SE ESPERAN CONDICIONES DE TORMENTA TROPICAL DENTRO DEL AREA DEL AVISO DENTRO DE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. A LAS 11 PM AST...EL GOBIERNO DE LAS BAHAMAS HA EMITIDO UNA VIGILANCIA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL PARA LONG ISLAND Y LAS EXUMAS EN EL CENTRO DE LAS BAHAMAS. UNA VIGILANCIA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SIGNIFICA QUE CONDICIONES DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SON POSIBLES EN EL AREA DE LA VIGILANCIA...GENERALMENTE DENTRO DE 36 HORAS. A LAS 1100 PM AST...UNA VIGILANCIA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL HA SIDO EMITIDO PARA LA COSTA NORTE DE HAITI DESDE LA MOLE ST. NICOLAS AL ESTE HASTA LA FRONTERA NORTE CON LA REPUBLICA DOMINICANA. UNA VIGILANCIA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL CONTINUA EN EFECTO PARA LA COSTA NORTE DE LA REPUBLICA DOMINICANA DESDE LA FRONTERA NORTE CON HAITI AL ESTE HASTA SAMANA. UNA VIGILANCIA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SIGNIFICA QUE CONDICIONES DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SON POSIBLES DENTRO DEL AREA DE LA VIGILANCIA...EN ESTE CASO DENTRO DE 12 A 24 HORAS. PARA INFORMACION ESPECIFICA PARA SU AREA...INCLUYENDO POSIBLES VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS PARA AREAS TERRESTRES...FAVOR DE REFERIRSE A LOS PRODUCTOS EMITIDOS POR SU OFICINA METEOROLOGICA LOCAL. A LAS 1100 PM AST...0300Z...EL CENTRO DE LA TORMENTA TROPICAL CHRIS ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 20.8 NORTE...LONGITUD 69.3 OESTE O COMO A 125 MILLAS...200 KM...AL ESTE-SURESTE DE GRAND TURK ISLAND. CHRIS SE ESTA MOVIENDO AL OESTE A CERCA DE 12 MPH...19 KM/HR...Y SE ESPERA QUE CONTINUE EN ESTE MOVIMIENTO DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. EN ESTA TRAYECTORIA EL CENTRO DE CHRIS PASARA AL NORTE DE LA ESPANOLA...Y CERCA O SOBRE TURKS Y CAICOS EL VIERNES. LOS VIENTOS SOSTENIDOS ESTAN EN CERCA DE 40 MPH...65 KM/HR...CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. SE PRONOSTICA POCO CAMBIO EN FUERZA DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LOS VIENTOS DE FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SE EXTIENDEN HACIA AFUERA HASTA 70 MILLAS...110 KM...MAYORMENTE AL ESTE DEL CENTRO. LA PRESION MINIMA CENTRAL ESTIMADA ES DE 1012 MB...29.88 PULGADAS. SE ESPERA QUE CHRIS PRODUZCA ACUMULACIONES TOTALES DE LLUVIA DE 1 A 3 PULGADAS A TRAVES DE PUERTO RICO...LA REPUBLICA DOMINICANA... EL SURESTE DE LAS BAHAMAS...TURKS Y CAICOS...HAITI Y EL ESTE DE CUBA...CON TOTALES AISLADOS DE HASTA 5 PULGADAS EN TERRENOS MAS ALTOS HASTA EL VIERNES. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 1100 PM AST...20.8 NORTE...69.3 OESTE. MOVIMIENTO HACIA...EL OESTE A CERCA DE 12 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS...40 MPH. PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA...1012 MILIBARAS. LA PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 200 AST. $$ PRONOSTICADOR BLAKE/KNABB ** WTPQ20 BABJ 040300 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TS PRAPIROON 0606 (0606) INITIAL TIME 040300 UTC 00HR 22.4N 109.3E 990HPA 20M/S 30KTS 400KM P12HR WNW 15KM/H= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 040300 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME STS 0606 PRAPIROON (0606) ANALYSIS PSTN 040300UTC 22.5N 109.2E FAIR MOVE WNW 08KT PRES 985HPA MXWD 050KT 30KT 240NM EAST 200NM WEST FORECAST 24HF 050300UTC 22.5N 106.0E 80NM 70% MOVE W 07KT PRES 996HPA MXWD 035KT 45HF 060000UTC 22.3N 104.7E 150NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION = ** WTJP31 RJTD 040300 *** WARNING 040300. WARNING VALID 050300. STORM WARNING. SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 0606 PRAPIROON (0606) 985 HPA AT 22.5N 109.2E SOUTH CHINA MOVING WESTNORTHWEST 08 KNOTS. POSITION FAIR. MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 240 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 200 MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION FOR 050300UTC AT 22.5N 106.0E WITH 80 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 996 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ20 BABJ 040400 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TS PRAPIROON 0606 (0606) INITIAL TIME 040400 UTC 00HR 22.5N 109.2E 990HPA 20M/S 30KTS 400KM P12HR WNW 15KM/H= ** WTSS20 VHHH 040445 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT 040300 UTC, TROPICAL STORM PRAPIROON (0606) WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 990 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES OF TWO TWO POINT FIVE DEGREES NORTH (22.5 N) ONE ZERO NINE POINT ONE DEGREES EAST (109.1 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE WEST OR WEST-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 7 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 40 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 60 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 270 NAUTICAL MILES OVER EASTERN SEMICIRCLE, 180 NAUTICAL MILES ELSEWHERE. NO FURTHER WARNINGS ON THIS TROPICAL STORM WILL BE ISSUED BY THE HONG KONG OBSERVATORY UNLESS IT RE-ENTERS THE HONG KONG AREA OF RESPONSIBILITY. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 050300 UTC DISSIPATED OVER LAND. ** WTSS20 VHHH 040445 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT 040300 UTC, TROPICAL STORM PRAPIROON (0606) WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 990 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES OF TWO TWO POINT FIVE DEGREES NORTH (22.5 N) ONE ZERO NINE POINT ONE DEGREES EAST (109.1 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE WEST OR WEST-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 7 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 40 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 60 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 270 NAUTICAL MILES OVER EASTERN SEMICIRCLE, 180 NAUTICAL MILES ELSEWHERE. NO FURTHER WARNINGS ON THIS TROPICAL STORM WILL BE ISSUED BY THE HONG KONG OBSERVATORY UNLESS IT RE-ENTERS THE HONG KONG AREA OF RESPONSIBILITY. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 050300 UTC DISSIPATED OVER LAND. ** WTNT80 EGRR 040524 *** MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 04.08.2006 TROPICAL DEPRESSION GILMA ANALYSED POSITION : 15.6N 111.0W ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP082006 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 04.08.2006 15.6N 111.0W WEAK 12UTC 04.08.2006 17.2N 111.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 05.08.2006 18.1N 113.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 05.08.2006 19.3N 114.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 06.08.2006 19.6N 115.0W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 06.08.2006 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH TROPICAL DEPRESSION FABIO ANALYSED POSITION : 14.7N 139.3W ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP072006 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 04.08.2006 14.7N 139.3W WEAK 12UTC 04.08.2006 14.4N 142.6W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 05.08.2006 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH TROPICAL STORM CHRIS ANALYSED POSITION : 20.9N 68.5W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL032006 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 04.08.2006 20.9N 68.5W WEAK 12UTC 04.08.2006 21.3N 71.2W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 05.08.2006 21.7N 74.0W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 05.08.2006 22.4N 76.9W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 06.08.2006 22.8N 80.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 06.08.2006 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 040524 ** WTPQ20 BABJ 040500 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TS PRAPIROON 0606 (0606) INITIAL TIME 040500 UTC 00HR 22.6N 109.0E 992HPA 20M/S 30KTS 400KM P12HR WNW 15KM/H= ** WTNT33 KNHC 040549 *** TCPAT3 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM CHRIS INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 14A NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032006 200 AM AST FRI AUG 04 2006 ...CHRIS HEADING FOR THE TURKS AND CAICOS... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE TURKS AND CAICOS...AND FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...INCLUDING THE ACKLINS...CROOKED ISLAND...THE INAGUAS...MAYAGUANA...AND THE RAGGED ISLANDS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR LONG ISLAND AND THE EXUMAS IN THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHERN COAST OF HISPANIOLA FROM LA MOLE ST. NICOLAS HAITI EASTWARD TO SAMANA DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 12 TO 24 HOURS. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 200 AM AST...0600Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CHRIS WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 70.0 WEST OR ABOUT 80 MILES...130 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF GRAND TURK ISLAND. CHRIS IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 13 MPH...21 KM/HR...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THIS TRACK THE CENTER OF CHRIS WILL BE MOVING NEAR THE TURKS AND CAICOS AND SOUTHEAST BAHAMAS LATER TODAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS CURRENTLY APPROACHING CHRIS TO ASCERTAIN THE INTENSITY. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM...MAINLY TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1012 MB...29.88 INCHES. CHRIS IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ACROSS PUERTO RICO...THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...THE SOUTHEAST BAHAMAS...THE TURKS AND CAICOS...HAITI AND EASTERN CUBA...WITH ISOLATED TOTALS OF UP TO 5 INCHES OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN THROUGH TODAY. REPEATING THE 200 AM AST POSITION...21.0 N...70.0 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST NEAR 13 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1012 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 500 AM AST. $$ FORECASTER MAINELLI/AVILA