** WTPQ20 BABJ 031800 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST STS PRAPIROON 0606 (0606) INITIAL TIME 031800 UTC 00HR 21.8N 110.2E 975HPA 28M/S 30KTS 400KM 50KTS 50KM P12HR WNW 20KM/H P+24HR 23.2N 107.5E 990HPA 20M/S P+48HR 23.3N 104.7E 1000HPA 15M/S= ** WTJP21 RJTD 031800 *** WARNING 031800. WARNING VALID 041800. WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS. STORM WARNING. SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 0606 PRAPIROON (0606) DOWNGRADED FROM TYPHOON 975 HPA AT 21.8N 110.3E SOUTH CHINA MOVING WESTNORTHWEST 10 KNOTS. POSITION FAIR. MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 50 MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 240 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 200 MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION FOR 041800UTC AT 23.0N 107.3E WITH 80 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 990 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. FORECAST POSITION FOR 051800UTC AT 22.7N 105.2E WITH 150 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 998 HPA. BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 031800 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME STS 0606 PRAPIROON (0606) DOWNGRADED FROM TY ANALYSIS PSTN 031800UTC 21.8N 110.3E FAIR MOVE WNW 10KT PRES 975HPA MXWD 060KT 50KT 50NM 30KT 240NM EAST 200NM WEST FORECAST 24HF 041800UTC 23.0N 107.3E 80NM 70% MOVE WNW 07KT PRES 990HPA MXWD 045KT 48HF 051800UTC 22.7N 105.2E 150NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION = ** WTKO20 RKSL 031800 *** KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 6 NAME STS 0606 PRAPIROON ANALYSIS POSITION 031800UTC 22.0N 110.4E MOVEMENT WNW 10KT PRES/VMAX 975HPA 60KT FORECAST 12HR POSITION 040600UTC 22.9N 108.8E WITHIN 45NM PRES/VMAX 980HPA 56KT 24HR POSITION 041800UTC 23.7N 107.4E WITHIN 80NM PRES/VMAX 990HPA 41KT 36HR POSITION 050600UTC 24.1N 106.2E WITHIN 0NM PRES 996HPA KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION. ** WTPQ20 BABJ 031900 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST STS PRAPIROON 0606 (0606) INITIAL TIME 031900 UTC 00HR 21.9N 110.1E 975HPA 28M/S 30KTS 400KM 50KTS 50KM P12HR WNW 20KM/H= ** WTSS20 VHHH 031945 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING TYPHOON PRAPIROON (0606) HAS WEAKENED INTO A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 975 HECTOPASCALS. AT 031800 UTC, IT WAS CENTRED WITHIN 30 NAUTICAL MILES OF TWO ONE POINT EIGHT DEGREES NORTH (21.8 N) ONE ONE ZERO POINT TWO DEGREES EAST (110.2 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE WEST-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 7 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 60 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 210 NAUTICAL MILES OVER EASTERN SEMICIRCLE, 120 NAUTICAL MILES ELSEWHERE. RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 60 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 270 NAUTICAL MILES OVER EASTERN SEMICIRCLE, 180 NAUTICAL MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 041800 UTC TWO TWO POINT THREE DEGREES NORTH (22.3 N) ONE ZERO SEVEN POINT SIX DEGREES EAST (107.6 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 40 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 051800 UTC DISSIPATED OVER LAND. ** WTSS20 VHHH 031945 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING TYPHOON PRAPIROON (0606) HAS WEAKENED INTO A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 975 HECTOPASCALS. AT 031800 UTC, IT WAS CENTRED WITHIN 30 NAUTICAL MILES OF TWO ONE POINT EIGHT DEGREES NORTH (21.8 N) ONE ONE ZERO POINT TWO DEGREES EAST (110.2 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE WEST-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 7 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 60 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 210 NAUTICAL MILES OVER EASTERN SEMICIRCLE, 120 NAUTICAL MILES ELSEWHERE. RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 60 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 270 NAUTICAL MILES OVER EASTERN SEMICIRCLE, 180 NAUTICAL MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 041800 UTC TWO TWO POINT THREE DEGREES NORTH (22.3 N) ONE ZERO SEVEN POINT SIX DEGREES EAST (107.6 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 40 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 051800 UTC DISSIPATED OVER LAND. ** WTPZ22 KNHC 032032 *** TCMEP2 TROPICAL DEPRESSION FABIO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 13 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072006 2100 UTC THU AUG 03 2006 TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.0N 138.9W AT 03/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 265 DEGREES AT 15 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1009 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.0N 138.9W AT 03/2100Z AT 03/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.0N 138.1W FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 14.9N 141.3W...REMNANT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 14.8N 144.5W...REMNANT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.0N 138.9W THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM $$ FORECASTER RHOME/PASCH ** WTPN31 PGTW 032100 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL STORM 07W (PRAPIROON) WARNING NR 016 DOWNGRADED FROM TYPHOON 07W 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 031800Z --- NEAR 21.9N 110.3E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 290 DEGREES AT 11 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND REPEAT POSIT: 21.9N 110.3E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 040600Z --- 22.4N 108.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 041800Z --- 22.4N 107.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 032100Z POSITION NEAR 22.0N 109.9E. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 07W (PRAPIROON), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 215 NM WEST OF HONG KONG, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER (NAVPACMETOCCEN). THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 031800Z IS 14 FEET.// ** WTPQ20 BABJ 032000 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST STS PRAPIROON 0606 (0606) INITIAL TIME 032000 UTC 00HR 22.0N 110.0E 980HPA 25M/S 30KTS 400KM 50KTS 50KM P12HR WNW 20KM/H= ** WTPZ42 KNHC 032035 *** TCDEP2 TROPICAL DEPRESSION FABIO DISCUSSION NUMBER 13 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072006 200 PM PDT THU AUG 03 2006 FABIO HAS BEEN UNABLE TO GENERATE SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION TODAY AND THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER HAS NOW BEEN EXPOSED FOR NEARLY 24 HOURS. THE SYSTEM IS NOW A SWIRL OF LOW CLOUDS AND NO LONGER HAS THE CHARACTERISTICS OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE. ACCORDINGLY...THIS WILL BE THE LAST ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. THE REMNANT LOW OF FABIO IS EXPECTED TO MOVE WESTWARD NEAR 15 KT FOR THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS AND THEN DISSIPATE. THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES FROM THE PREVIOUS TRACK OR INTENSITY FORECAST EXCEPT TO DISSIPATE THE REMNANT LOW SOONER. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 03/2100Z 15.0N 138.9W 30 KT...DISSIPATING 12HR VT 04/0600Z 14.9N 141.3W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW 24HR VT 04/1800Z 14.8N 144.5W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW 36HR VT 05/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER RHOME/PASCH ** WTPZ43 KNHC 032036 *** TCDEP3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION GILMA DISCUSSION NUMBER 12 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082006 200 PM PDT THU AUG 03 2006 A 1254Z HIGH RESOLUTION QUIKSCAT PASS SHOWS THAT EXCEPT FOR SOME HIGHER RAIN-FLAGGED VECTORS EMBEDDED WITHIN AN EARLIER THUNDERSTORM CLUSTER...WINDS AROUND GILMA ARE NO MORE THAN ABOUT 20 KT. THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS BECOMING INCREASINGLY ILL-DEFINED...AND THE RECENT FORMATION OF A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDING UP TO 300 NM NORTH OF THE CENTER SUGGESTS THAT THE CIRCULATION IS BEGINNING A TRANSITION INTO AN OPEN TROUGH. THEREFORE...THIS WILL BE THE LAST ADVISORY ISSUED ON GILMA. THE REMNANT LOW OR TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS...POSSIBLY PRODUCING OCCASIONAL BURSTS OF CONVECTION AS IT REMAINS OVER WARM WATER. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 03/2100Z 16.0N 110.1W 20 KT...DISSIPATING 12HR VT 04/0600Z 17.0N 111.3W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 24HR VT 04/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER BERG/PASCH ** WTPZ23 KNHC 032037 *** TCMEP3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION GILMA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 12 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082006 2100 UTC THU AUG 03 2006 TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.0N 110.1W AT 03/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 20 KT WITH GUSTS TO 25 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.0N 110.1W AT 03/2100Z AT 03/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.7N 109.7W FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 17.0N 111.3W...REMNANT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT. FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.0N 110.1W THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM $$ FORECASTER BERG/PASCH ** WTNT43 KNHC 032040 *** TCDAT3 TROPICAL STORM CHRIS DISCUSSION NUMBER 13 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032006 500 PM EDT THU AUG 03 2006 THE HURRICANE HUNTERS FOUND WINDS OF 39 KT AT A FLIGHT LEVEL OF 800 FT OVER THE SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OF CHRIS. USING STANDARD REDUCTION VALUES THIS WOULD CORRESPOND TO SURFACE WINDS JUST BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH. SINCE IT IS STILL POSSIBLE THAT THERE ARE A FEW SPOTS OF TROPICAL STORM WINDS SOMEWHERE IN THE CIRCULATION...CHRIS IS NOT BEING DOWNGRADED ON THIS PACKAGE. A FEW HEAVY SHOWERS REDEVELOPED NEAR AND TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER...BUT THIS CONVECTION WAS NOT VERY DEEP. ASSUMING THAT SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION DOES NOT REDEVELOP...IT IS LIKELY THAT THE CYCLONE WILL SPIN DOWN TO A DEPRESSION WITHIN THE NEXT 6 TO 12 HOURS. THE SHIPS GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THE CURRENT SHEAR WILL BE MAINTAINED FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO. SOME OF THE GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE SHEAR COULD RELAX SOMEWHAT IN A FEW DAYS BUT BY THEN THE SYSTEM MAY HAVE WEAKENED TO THE EXTENT THAT IT WILL NOT BE ABLE TO COME BACK. THE INTENSITY FORECAST SIMPLY MAINTAINS THE SYSTEM AS A DEPRESSION THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD WHICH IS A COMPROMISE BETWEEN DISSIPATION AND REGENERATION. THERE ARE NO CHANGES TO THE TRACK FORECAST REASONING. CHRIS OR ITS REMNANTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE STEERED BY THE FLOW ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF A WELL-DEFINED MID-LEVEL RIDGE. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS BASICALLY AN EXTENSION OF THE PREVIOUS ONE AND IS SLIGHTLY TO THE NORTH OF THE DYNAMICAL TRACK MODEL CONSENSUS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 03/2100Z 20.7N 68.2W 35 KT 12HR VT 04/0600Z 20.9N 69.8W 30 KT 24HR VT 04/1800Z 21.3N 72.0W 30 KT 36HR VT 05/0600Z 21.7N 74.3W 30 KT 48HR VT 05/1800Z 22.2N 76.9W 30 KT 72HR VT 06/1800Z 23.3N 82.0W 30 KT 96HR VT 07/1800Z 24.5N 87.0W 30 KT 120HR VT 08/1800Z 25.5N 92.0W 30 KT $$ FORECASTER PASCH ** WTNT33 KNHC 032042 *** TCPAT3 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM CHRIS ADVISORY NUMBER 13 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032006 500 PM AST THU AUG 03 2006 ...CHRIS AT MARGINAL TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH...BUT LIKELY TO WEAKEN... A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTH COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM CABO ENGANO TO CABO FRANCES VIEJO. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS...AND FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...INCLUDING THE ACKLINS...CROOKED ISLAND...THE INAGUAS...MAYAGUANA...AND THE RAGGED ISLANDS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 12 TO 24 HOURS. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 500 PM AST...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CHRIS WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 68.2 WEST OR ABOUT 195 MILES...315 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF GRAND TURK ISLAND. CHRIS IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/HR... AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. CHRIS IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN TO A DEPRESSION TONIGHT OR EARLY ON FRIDAY. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 80 MILES...130 KM FROM THE CENTER. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY THE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE WAS 1011 MB...29.85 INCHES. CHRIS IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES WITH ISOLATED TOTALS OF UP TO 5 INCHES OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF PUERTO RICO...THE U.S. AND BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS...AND THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE SOUTHEAST BAHAMAS...THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS...AND NORTHERN HAITI THROUGH FRIDAY. REPEATING THE 500 PM AST POSITION...20.7 N...68.2 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1011 MB. AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 800 PM AST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1100 PM AST. $$ FORECASTER PASCH ** WTNT23 KNHC 032042 *** TCMAT3 TROPICAL STORM CHRIS FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 13 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032006 2100 UTC THU AUG 03 2006 A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTH COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM CABO ENGANO TO CABO FRANCES VIEJO. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS...AND FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...INCLUDING THE ACKLINS...CROOKED ISLAND...THE INAGUAS...MAYAGUANA...AND THE RAGGED ISLANDS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 12 TO 24 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.7N 68.2W AT 03/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1011 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 70NE 70SE 0SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 90SE 60SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.7N 68.2W AT 03/2100Z AT 03/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.6N 67.7W FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 20.9N 69.8W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 21.3N 72.0W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 21.7N 74.3W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 22.2N 76.9W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 23.3N 82.0W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 07/1800Z 24.5N 87.0W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 08/1800Z 25.5N 92.0W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.7N 68.2W NEXT ADVISORY AT 04/0300Z $$ FORECASTER PASCH ** WTNT23 KNHC 032042 *** TCMAT3 TROPICAL STORM CHRIS FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 13 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032006 2100 UTC THU AUG 03 2006 A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTH COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM CABO ENGANO TO CABO FRANCES VIEJO. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS...AND FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...INCLUDING THE ACKLINS...CROOKED ISLAND...THE INAGUAS...MAYAGUANA...AND THE RAGGED ISLANDS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 12 TO 24 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.7N 68.2W AT 03/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1011 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 70NE 70SE 0SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 90SE 60SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.7N 68.2W AT 03/2100Z AT 03/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.6N 67.7W FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 20.9N 69.8W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 21.3N 72.0W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 21.7N 74.3W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 22.2N 76.9W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 23.3N 82.0W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 07/1800Z 24.5N 87.0W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 08/1800Z 25.5N 92.0W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.7N 68.2W NEXT ADVISORY AT 04/0300Z $$ FORECASTER PASCH ** WTCA43 TJSJ 032108 *** TCPSP3 BOLETIN TORMENTA TROPICAL CHRIS ADVERTENCIA INTERMEDIA NUMERO 13 NWS TCP/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL AL032006 500 PM AST JUEVES 3 DE AGOSTO DE 2006 ...CHRIS CON INTENSIDAD MARGINAL DE TORMENTA TROPICAL...PERO PROBABLEMENTE SE DEBILITE... UNA VIGILANCIA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL ESTA EN EFECTO PARA LA COSTA NORTE DE LA REPUBLICA DOMINICANA DESDE CABO ENGANO HASTA CABO FRANCES VIEJO. CONTINUA EN EFECTO UNA VIGILANCIA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL PARA LAS ISLAS TURKS Y CAICOS...Y PARA LAS BAHAMAS SURESTE...INCLUYENDO LAS ACKLINS ...CROOKED ISLAND...LAS INAGUAS...MAYAGUANA...Y LAS ISLAS RAGGED. UNA VIGILANCIA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SIGNIFICA QUE CONDICIONES DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SON POSIBLES DENTRO DEL AREA DE LA VIGILANCIA...EN ESTE CASO DENTRO DE LAS PROXIMAS 12 A 24 HORAS. PARA INFORMACION ESPECIFICA PARA SU AREA...INCLUYENDO POSIBLES VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS PARA AREAS TERRESTRES...FAVOR DE REFERIRSE A LOS PRODUCTOS EMITIDOS POR SU OFICINA METEOROLOGICA LOCAL. A LAS 500 PM AST...2100Z...EL CENTRO DE LA TORMENTA TROPICAL CHRIS ESTABA LOCALIZADA CERCA DE LA LATITUD 20.7 NORTE...LONGITUD 68.2 OESTE O COMO A 195 MILLAS...315 KM...AL ESTE-SURESTE DE GRAND TURK ISLAND. CHRIS SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL OESTE OESTE-NOROESTE A CERCA DE 10 MPH...17 KM/HR...Y SE ESPERA QUE CONTINUE EN ESTE MOVIMIENTO GENERAL DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. INFORMES DE UN AVION DE RECONOCIMIENTO DE UNA UNIDAD DE LA RESERVA DE LA FUERZA AEREA INDICAN QUE LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS ESTAN EN CERCA DE 40 MPH...65 KM/HR...CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. SE ESPERA QUE CHRIS SE DEBILITE A DEPRESION TROPICAL ESTA NOCHE O TEMPRANO EL VIERNES. LA PRESION MINIMA CENTRAL INFORMADA POR EL AVION DE RECONOCIMIENTO ES DE 1011 MB...28.85 PULGADAS. SE ESPERA QUE CHRIS PRODUZCA ACUMULACIONES TOTALES DE LLUVIA DE 1 A 3 PULGADAS CON CANTIDADES AISLADAS DE 5 PULGADAS EN LAS AREAS MAS ELEVADAS DE PUERTO RICO...ISLAS VIRGENES AMERICANAS Y BRITANICAS Y LA REPUBLICA DOMINICANA. ACUMULACIONES TOTALES DE LLUVIA DE 1 A 2 PULGADAS SON POSIBLES EN EL SURESTE DE LAS BAHAMAS...LAS ISLAS TURKS Y CAICOS Y EL NORTE DE HAITI HASTA EL VIERNES. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 5 PM AST...20.7 NORTE...68.2 OESTE. MOVIMIENTO HACIA...EL OESTE-NOROESTE A CERCA DE 10 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS...40 MPH. PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA...1011 MILIBARAS. LA PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 8 PM. $$ PRONOSTICADOR PASCH ** WTPN32 PHNC 031600 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// REF/A/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN/PEARL HARBOR HI/030930AUG2006// AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.// RMKS/ ** WTPN32 PHNC 031600 *** 1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 08E (GILMA) WARNING NR 011 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 031200Z --- NEAR 15.5N 109.0W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 295 DEGREES AT 09 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT REPEAT POSIT: 15.5N 109.0W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 040000Z --- 16.3N 110.7W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 041200Z --- 17.2N 112.1W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: 031600Z POSITION NEAR 15.8N 109.6W. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 031200Z IS 10 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 032200Z, 040400Z AND 041000Z. REFER TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION 07E (FABIO) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PHNC) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.// ** WTPN31 PHNC 032200 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// REF/A/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN/PEARL HARBOR HI/030935AUG2006// AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 07E (FABIO) WARNING NR 013 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 031800Z --- NEAR 15.0N 138.9W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 265 DEGREES AT 15 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT REPEAT POSIT: 15.0N 138.9W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 040600Z --- 14.9N 141.3W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 15 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 041800Z --- 14.8N 144.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: 032200Z POSITION NEAR 15.0N 139.7W. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER (NAVPACMETOCCEN). THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MON- ITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 031800Z IS 10 FEET. REFER TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION 08E (GILMA) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PHNC) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.// ** WTPQ20 BABJ 032100 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TS PRAPIROON 0606 (0606) INITIAL TIME 032100 UTC 00HR 22.1N 109.9E 985HPA 23M/S 30KTS 400KM P12HR WNW 15KM/H P+24HR 23.2N 107.2E 995HPA 18M/S P+48HR 23.3N 104.3E 1005HPA 12M/S= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 032100 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME STS 0606 PRAPIROON (0606) ANALYSIS PSTN 032100UTC 22.0N 110.0E FAIR MOVE WNW 10KT PRES 980HPA MXWD 055KT 50KT 45NM 30KT 240NM EAST 200NM WEST FORECAST 24HF 042100UTC 22.6N 106.8E 80NM 70% MOVE W 07KT PRES 992HPA MXWD 040KT 45HF 051800UTC 22.7N 105.2E 150NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION = ** WTJP31 RJTD 032100 *** WARNING 032100. WARNING VALID 042100. STORM WARNING. SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 0606 PRAPIROON (0606) 980 HPA AT 22.0N 110.0E SOUTH CHINA MOVING WESTNORTHWEST 10 KNOTS. POSITION FAIR. MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 45 MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 240 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 200 MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION FOR 042100UTC AT 22.6N 106.8E WITH 80 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 992 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ20 BABJ 032200 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TS PRAPIROON 0606 (0606) INITIAL TIME 032200 UTC 00HR 22.1N 109.9E 985HPA 23M/S 30KTS 400KM P12HR WNW 15KM/H= ** WTSS20 VHHH 032245 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT 032100 UTC, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM PRAPIROON (0606) WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 985 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES OF TWO TWO POINT ZERO DEGREES NORTH (22.0 N) ONE ZERO NINE POINT NINE DEGREES EAST (109.9 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE WEST AT ABOUT 7 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 50 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 210 NAUTICAL MILES OVER EASTERN SEMICIRCLE, 120 NAUTICAL MILES ELSEWHERE. RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 30 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 240 NAUTICAL MILES OVER EASTERN SEMICIRCLE, 180 NAUTICAL MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 042100 UTC TWO TWO POINT FOUR DEGREES NORTH (22.4 N) ONE ZERO SEVEN POINT ZERO DEGREES EAST (107.0 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 30 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 052100 UTC DISSIPATED OVER LAND. ** WTSS20 VHHH 032245 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT 032100 UTC, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM PRAPIROON (0606) WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 985 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES OF TWO TWO POINT ZERO DEGREES NORTH (22.0 N) ONE ZERO NINE POINT NINE DEGREES EAST (109.9 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE WEST AT ABOUT 7 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 50 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 210 NAUTICAL MILES OVER EASTERN SEMICIRCLE, 120 NAUTICAL MILES ELSEWHERE. RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 30 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 240 NAUTICAL MILES OVER EASTERN SEMICIRCLE, 180 NAUTICAL MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 042100 UTC TWO TWO POINT FOUR DEGREES NORTH (22.4 N) ONE ZERO SEVEN POINT ZERO DEGREES EAST (107.0 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 30 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 052100 UTC DISSIPATED OVER LAND. ** WTPQ20 BABJ 032300 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TS PRAPIROON 0606 (0606) INITIAL TIME 032300 UTC 00HR 22.1N 109.8E 985HPA 23M/S= P12HR WNW 15KM/H= ** WTNT33 KNHC 032358 *** TCPAT3 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM CHRIS INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 13A NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032006 800 PM AST THU AUG 03 2006 ...CHRIS HOLDING ON TO TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH... AT 8 PM AST...0000Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC HAS MODIFIED THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH... WHICH IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTH COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM THE NORTHERN BORDER WITH HAITI EASTWARD TO SEMANA. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH ALSO IS IN EFFECT FOR THE TURKS AND CAICOS... AND FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...INCLUDING THE ACKLINS...CROOKED ISLAND...THE INAGUAS...MAYAGUANA...AND THE RAGGED ISLANDS. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 800 PM AST...0000Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CHRIS WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 68.7 WEST OR ABOUT 165 MILES...265 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF GRAND TURK ISLAND. CHRIS IS MOVING JUST NORTH OF DUE WEST NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/HR... AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THIS TRACK THE CENTER OF CHRIS WILL BE OVER OR NEAR THE TURKS AND CAICOS ON FRIDAY. REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. CHRIS COULD WEAKEN TO A DEPRESSION TONIGHT OR ON FRIDAY. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 80 MILES...130 KM... MAINLY TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY THE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE WAS 1012 MB...29.88 INCHES. CHRIS IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES WITH ISOLATED TOTALS OF UP TO 5 INCHES OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF PUERTO RICO...THE U.S. AND BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS...AND THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE SOUTHEAST BAHAMAS...THE TURKS AND CAICOS...AND NORTHERN HAITI THROUGH FRIDAY. REPEATING THE 800 PM AST POSITION...20.7 N...68.7 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST NEAR 10 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1012 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 1100 PM AST. $$ FORECASTER BLAKE/KNABB