** WTCA43 TJSJ 030604 CCA *** TCPSP3 BOLETIN TORMENTA TROPICAL CHRIS ADVERTENCIA NUMERO 10A NWS TCP/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL AL032006 200 AM AST JUEVES 3 DE AGOSTO DE 2006 ...CHRIS SE ESTA DESORGANIZANDO... ESTA EN EFECTO UNA VIGILANCIA DE HURACAN PARA LAS ISLAS TURKS Y CAICOS...Y PARA EL SURESTE DE LAS BAHAMAS...INCLUYENDO ACKLINS... CROOKED ISLAND...INAGUAS...MAYAGUANA Y RAGGED ISLANDS. PERMANECE EN EFECTO UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL PARA PUERTO RICO Y LAS ISLAS VIRGENES AMERICANAS Y BRITANICAS. PARA INFORMACION ESPECIFICA PARA SU AREA...INCLUYENDO POSIBLES VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS PARA AREAS TERRESTRES...FAVOR DE REFERIRSE A LOS PRODUCTOS EMITIDOS POR SU OFICINA METEOROLOGICA LOCAL. A LAS 200 AM AST...0300Z...EL CENTRO DE LA TORMENTA TROPICAL CHRIS ESTABA LOCALIZADA CERCA DE LA LATITUD 20.0 NORTE...LONGITUD 65.5 OESTE O COMO A 115 MILLAS...185 KM...AL NORTE NORESTE DE SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO. UN AVION DE RECONOSCIMIENTO ACTUALMENTE ESTA ACERCANDOSE A CHRIS. CHRIS SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL OESTE A CERCA DE 11 MPH...13 KM/HR...SE PRONOSTICA UN MOVIMIENTO GENERAL HACIA EL OESTE DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. EN ESTA TRAYECTORIA...EL CENTRO DE CHRIS SE MANTENDRIA AL NORTE DE PUERTO RICO. SIN EMBARGO...SE ESPERA QUE CHRIS TRAIGA LLUVIAS OCASIONALMENTE FUERTES Y RAFAGAS DE VIENTOS A PUERTO RICO Y A LAS ISLAS VIRGENES AMERICANAS Y BRITANICAS HOY. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS ESTAN EN CERCA DE 55 MPH...90 KM/HR... CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. SI EL CENTRO DE CHRIS CONTINUA ALEJANDOSE DE LA ACTIVIDAD DE TRONADAS...SE ANTICIPA UN DEBILITAMIENTO GRADUAL. LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SE EXTIENDEN HACIA AFUERA HASTA 80 MILLAS...130 KILOMETROS...MAYORMENTE AL ESTE DEL CENTRO. LA PRESION MINIMA CENTRAL ESTIMADA ES DE 1007 MB...28.74 PULGADAS. SE ESPERA QUE CHRIS PRODUZCA ACUMULACIONES TOTALES DE LLUVIA DE 2 A 4 PULGADAS SOBRE LAS ISLAS DE SOTAVENTO DEL NORTE...LAS ISLAS VIRGENES AMERICANAS PARTES DE PUERTO RICO...Y LA REPUBLICA DOMINICANA...CON POSIBLES CANTIDADES AISLADAS MAXIMAS DE 8 PULGADAS POSIBLES SOBRE TERRENO MAS ALTO HASTA EL JUEVES. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 11 PM AST...20.0 NORTE...65.5 OESTE. MOVIMIENTO HACIA...EL OESTE A CERCA DE 11 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS...55 MPH. PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA...1007 MILIBARAS. LA PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 500 AM AST. $$ PRONOSTICADOR AVILA ** WTPQ20 BABJ 030600 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TY PRAPIROON 0606 (0606) INITIAL TIME 030600 UTC 00HR 20.9N 112.2E 975HPA 33M/S 30KTS 400KM 50KTS 100KM P12HR NW 20KM/H P+24HR 23.3N 110.0E 985HPA 28M/S P+48HR 24.1N 107.6E 990HPA 23M/S P+72HR 24.6N 105.1E 998HPA 15M/S= ** WTIN20 DEMS 030642 *** TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK ------------------------ DEMS -RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONES NEW DELHI 03-08-2006(.) TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NORTH INDIAN OCEAN (THE BAY OF BENGAL AND THE ARABIAN SEA ) VALID FOR NEXT 24 HOURS ISSUED AT 1700 UTC (.) SUB:DEEP DEPRESSION OVER BAY OF BENGAL YESTERDAY'S DEEP DEPRESSION OVER NORTHWEST AND ADJOINING WESTCENTRAL BAY OF BENGAL MOVED SLIGHLY WEST-SOUTHWESTWARDS AND CROSSED SOUTH ORISSA COAST BETWEEN PURI AND GOPALPUR AROUND 0300 UTC OF TODAY, THE 3RD AUGUST, 2006 AND LAY CENTRED AT 0300 UTC NEAR 19.5 DEG.N, 85.0 DEG. E. ABOUT 50 KMS NORTH- NORTHEAST OF GOPALPUR. THE SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO MOVE IN A WEST- NORTHWESTERLY DIRECTION. BROKEN INTENSE TO VERY INTENSE CONVECTIVE CLOUDS ARE SEEN OVER WESTCENTRAL AND ADJOINING NORTHWEST BAY OF BENGAL IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS SYSTEM. MSG OVER ????/ ** WTCA82 TJSJ 030645 *** HLSSJU PRZ001>013-VIZ001-002-AMZ710>750-030945- BULLETIN-IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED TROPICAL STORM CHRIS LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR 245 AM AST THU AUG 3 2006 ...TROPICAL STORM CHRIS LOCATED NORTH OF THE U.S. ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO AND BECOMING DISORGANIZED... ...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO... ...NEW INFORMATION... STORM INFORMATION. INLAND FLOODING. WINDS. ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT IS FOR THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO. ...WATCHES/WARNINGS... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 200 AM AST...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CHRIS WAS ESTIMATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 65.5 WEST...ABOUT 110 MILES NORTHWEST OF ST THOMAS OR ABOUT 115 MILES NORTH-NORTHEAST OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO OR ABOUT 150 MILES NORTHWEST OF ST CROIX. CHRIS APPEARS TO BE MOVING WEST NEAR 11 MPH...WITH THIS GENERAL MOTION EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SHOULD THIS TRACK CONTINUE...THE CENTER OF CHRIS WOULD STAY NORTH OF PUERTO RICO TODAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 55 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. A GRADUAL WEAKENING TREND IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 12 HOURS. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... THE MAIN IMPACT OF TROPICAL STORM CHRIS WILL BE THE POTENTIAL OF HEAVY RAIN FOR A LONGER PERIOD OF TIME ALONG WITH A FEW STRONG WIND GUSTS IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE RAIN BANDS ACROSS THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO THROUGH THIS THURSDAY MORNING. ADDITIONALLY...STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS...OCCASIONALLY OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE MAY ACCOMPANY SOME OF THE RAIN BANDS AND THUNDERSTORMS. ...WINDS... TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 80 MILES FROM THE CENTER OF CHRIS...BUT MAINLY TO THE EAST OF CENTER. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY NEAR RAINBANDS DURING THE PASSING SHOWERS. SUSTAINED WINDS ARE FORECAST TO REACH 15 TO 20 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS EARLY THIS MORNING AS TROPICAL STORM CHRIS CONTINUES TO MOVE WEST. BASED ON THE LATEST FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF CHRIS IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE PASSING NORTH OF PUERTO RICO THROUGH THIS MORNING. TROPICAL STORM FORCE GUSTS COULD BE EXPERIENCED WITH THE RAIN BANDS OVER ST THOMAS...ST JOHN THROUGH THIS MORNING. RESIDENTS OF THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS TROPICAL STORM CLOSELY. ...INLAND FLOODING... RAIN BANDS WITH HEAVY RAINS CONTINUE ACROSS THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS OF ST JOHN AND ST THOMAS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE OUTER FRINGES OF TROPICAL STORM CHRIS WILL INCREASE THIS MORNING ACROSS THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS...CULEBRA AND VIEQUES...AND OVER THE NORTH AND EAST SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO. PERIODS OF VERY HEAVY RAIN ARE POSSIBLE AS THE CENTER OF THE STORM CONTINUES PASSING NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA THROUGH TODAY. SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL COULD CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY BEHIND THE EXITING STORM...AS LOW LEVEL WINDS SHIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST. RAINFALL TOTALS OF TWO TO FIVE INCHES ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH TODAY...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE INTERIOR SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO. SOME RIVERS ACROSS PUERTO RICO COULD EXPERIENCE SIGNIFICANT RISES WITH SOME RIVERS EXCEEDING BANKFULL LATER TODAY. ...MARINE IMPACTS... WATERSPOUTS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND EASTERN PUERTO RICO WATERS WITH PASSING RAINBANDS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. SMALL CRAFT SHOULD REMAIN IN PORT THROUGH TODAY. SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE ACROSS THE LOCAL ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS THIS MORNING...AND WILL EXCEED 12 FEET WITHIN 40 MILES SOUTHWEST OF CHRIS AND WITHIN 90 MILES SOUTHEAST OF CHRIS. ROUGH AND CONFUSED SURF AND STRONG RIP CURRENTS WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE WATERS OF THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND THE NORTHERN COASTS OF PUERTO RICO AND CULEBRA THROUGH TODAY...BUT WAVE HEIGHTS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW 10 FEET ALONG THE LOCAL COASTLINES. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY 545 AM AST THIS MORNING BY YOUR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE IN SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO. $$ BCS ** WTJP21 RJTD 030600 *** WARNING 030600. WARNING VALID 040600. WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS. TYPHOON WARNING. TYPHOON 0606 PRAPIROON (0606) 965 HPA AT 20.9N 112.2E SOUTH CHINA SEA MOVING NORTHNORTHWEST 09 KNOTS. POSITION FAIR. MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 60 MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 240 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 200 MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION FOR 040600UTC AT 22.1N 109.8E WITH 80 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 975 HPA, MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. FORECAST POSITION FOR 050600UTC AT 23.1N 107.9E WITH 150 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 992 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION FOR 060600UTC AT 24.0N 106.2E WITH 220 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 998 HPA. BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 030600 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TY 0606 PRAPIROON (0606) ANALYSIS PSTN 030600UTC 20.9N 112.2E FAIR MOVE NNW 09KT PRES 965HPA MXWD 070KT 50KT 60NM 30KT 240NM EAST 200NM WEST FORECAST 24HF 040600UTC 22.1N 109.8E 80NM 70% MOVE WNW 06KT PRES 975HPA MXWD 060KT 48HF 050600UTC 23.1N 107.9E 150NM 70% MOVE WNW SLOWLY PRES 992HPA MXWD 040KT 72HF 060600UTC 24.0N 106.2E 220NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION = ** WTCA82 TJSJ 030700 CCA *** HLSSJU PRZ001>013-VIZ001-002-AMZ710>750-030945- BULLETIN-IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED...CORRECTED TROPICAL STORM CHRIS LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR 245 AM AST THU AUG 3 2006 ...TROPICAL STORM CHRIS LOCATED NORTH OF THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO AND BECOMING DISORGANIZED... ...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO... ...NEW INFORMATION... STORM INFORMATION. INLAND FLOODING. WINDS. ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT IS FOR THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO. ...WATCHES/WARNINGS... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 200 AM AST...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CHRIS WAS ESTIMATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 65.5 WEST...ABOUT 110 MILES NORTHWEST OF ST THOMAS OR ABOUT 115 MILES NORTH-NORTHEAST OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO OR ABOUT 150 MILES NORTHWEST OF ST CROIX. CHRIS APPEARS TO BE MOVING WEST NEAR 11 MPH...WITH THIS GENERAL MOTION EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SHOULD THIS TRACK CONTINUE...THE CENTER OF CHRIS WOULD STAY NORTH OF PUERTO RICO TODAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 55 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. A GRADUAL WEAKENING TREND IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 12 HOURS. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... THE MAIN IMPACT OF TROPICAL STORM CHRIS WILL BE THE POTENTIAL OF HEAVY RAIN FOR A LONGER PERIOD OF TIME ALONG WITH A FEW STRONG WIND GUSTS IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE RAIN BANDS ACROSS THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO THROUGH THIS THURSDAY MORNING. ADDITIONALLY...STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS...OCCASIONALLY OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE MAY ACCOMPANY SOME OF THE RAIN BANDS AND THUNDERSTORMS. ...WINDS... TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 80 MILES FROM THE CENTER OF CHRIS...BUT MAINLY TO THE EAST OF CENTER. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY NEAR RAINBANDS DURING THE PASSING SHOWERS. SUSTAINED WINDS ARE FORECAST TO REACH 15 TO 20 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS EARLY THIS MORNING AS TROPICAL STORM CHRIS CONTINUES TO MOVE WEST. BASED ON THE LATEST FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF CHRIS IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE PASSING NORTH OF PUERTO RICO THROUGH THIS MORNING. TROPICAL STORM FORCE GUSTS COULD BE EXPERIENCED WITH THE RAIN BANDS OVER ST THOMAS...ST JOHN THROUGH THIS MORNING. RESIDENTS OF THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS TROPICAL STORM CLOSELY. ...INLAND FLOODING... RAIN BANDS WITH HEAVY RAINS CONTINUE ACROSS THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS OF ST JOHN AND ST THOMAS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE OUTER FRINGES OF TROPICAL STORM CHRIS WILL INCREASE THIS MORNING ACROSS THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS...CULEBRA AND VIEQUES...AND OVER THE NORTH AND EAST SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO. PERIODS OF VERY HEAVY RAIN ARE POSSIBLE AS THE CENTER OF THE STORM CONTINUES PASSING NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA THROUGH TODAY. SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL COULD CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY BEHIND THE EXITING STORM...AS LOW LEVEL WINDS SHIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST. RAINFALL TOTALS OF TWO TO FIVE INCHES ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH TODAY...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE INTERIOR SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO. SOME RIVERS ACROSS PUERTO RICO COULD EXPERIENCE SIGNIFICANT RISES WITH SOME RIVERS EXCEEDING BANKFULL LATER TODAY. ...MARINE IMPACTS... WATERSPOUTS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND EASTERN PUERTO RICO WATERS WITH PASSING RAINBANDS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. SMALL CRAFT SHOULD REMAIN IN PORT THROUGH TODAY. SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE ACROSS THE LOCAL ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS THIS MORNING...AND WILL EXCEED 12 FEET WITHIN 40 MILES SOUTHWEST OF CHRIS AND WITHIN 90 MILES SOUTHEAST OF CHRIS. ROUGH AND CONFUSED SURF AND STRONG RIP CURRENTS WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE WATERS OF THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND THE NORTHERN COASTS OF PUERTO RICO AND CULEBRA THROUGH TODAY...BUT WAVE HEIGHTS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW 10 FEET ALONG THE LOCAL COASTLINES. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY 545 AM AST THIS MORNING BY YOUR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE IN SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO. $$ BCS ** WTKO20 RKSL 030600 *** KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 5 NAME TY 0606 PRAPIROON ANALYSIS POSITION 030600UTC 20.9N 112.1E MOVEMENT NW 8KT PRES/VMAX 965HPA 68KT FORECAST 24HR POSITION 040600UTC 22.0N 109.2E WITHIN 80NM PRES/VMAX 980HPA 56KT 48HR POSITION 050600UTC 22.9N 107.1E WITHIN 135NM PRES/VMAX 990HPA 41KT 72HR POSITION 060600UTC 23.9N 105.0E WITHIN 0NM PRES 996HPA KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION. ** WTPQ30 RJTD 030600 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING REASONING NO. 6 FOR TY 0606 PRAPIROON (0606) 1.GENERAL COMMENTS REASONING OF PROGNOSIS THIS TIME IS SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS ONE. POSITION FORECAST IS MAINLY BASED ON NWP AND PERSISTENCY. 2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION NOTHING PARTICULAR TO EXPLAIN. 3.MOTION FORECAST POSITION ACCURACY AT 030600 UTC IS FAIR. TY WILL MOVE AT THE SAME SPEED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TY WILL MOVE WEST-NORTHWEST FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. 4.INTENSITY FORECAST TY WILL BE GRADED DOWN TO STS WITHIN 24 HOURS. TY WILL WEAKEN BECAUSE LANDFALL IS EXPECTED WITHIN 18 HOURS. FI-NUMBER WILL BE 3.5 AFTER 24 HOURS.= ** WTPQ20 BABJ 030700 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TY PRAPIROON 0606 (0606) INITIAL TIME 030700 UTC 00HR 21.1N 112.0E 975HPA 33M/S 30KTS 400KM 50KTS 100KM P12HR NW 20KM/H= ** WTSS20 VHHH 030745 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT 030600 UTC, TYPHOON PRAPIROON (0606) WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 965 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 30 NAUTICAL MILES OF TWO ZERO POINT SEVEN DEGREES NORTH (20.7 N) ONE ONE TWO POINT TWO DEGREES EAST (112.2 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE WEST-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 8 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 70 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 210 NAUTICAL MILES OVER SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE, 150 NAUTICAL MILES ELSEWHERE. RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 120 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 63 KNOT WINDS 60 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 300 NAUTICAL MILES OVER SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE, 200 NAUTICAL MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 040600 UTC TWO TWO POINT ONE DEGREES NORTH (22.1 N) ONE ZERO NINE POINT THREE DEGREES EAST (109.3 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 55 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 050600 UTC TWO TWO POINT ZERO DEGREES NORTH (22.0 N) ONE ZERO SEVEN POINT ZERO DEGREES EAST (107.0 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 45 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 060600 UTC TWO ONE POINT SIX DEGREES NORTH (21.6 N) ONE ZERO FIVE POINT EIGHT DEGREES EAST (105.8 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 25 KNOTS. ** WTSS20 VHHH 030745 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT 030600 UTC, TYPHOON PRAPIROON (0606) WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 965 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 30 NAUTICAL MILES OF TWO ZERO POINT SEVEN DEGREES NORTH (20.7 N) ONE ONE TWO POINT TWO DEGREES EAST (112.2 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE WEST-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 8 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 70 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 210 NAUTICAL MILES OVER SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE, 150 NAUTICAL MILES ELSEWHERE. RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 120 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 63 KNOT WINDS 60 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 300 NAUTICAL MILES OVER SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE, 200 NAUTICAL MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 040600 UTC TWO TWO POINT ONE DEGREES NORTH (22.1 N) ONE ZERO NINE POINT THREE DEGREES EAST (109.3 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 55 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 050600 UTC TWO TWO POINT ZERO DEGREES NORTH (22.0 N) ONE ZERO SEVEN POINT ZERO DEGREES EAST (107.0 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 45 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 060600 UTC TWO ONE POINT SIX DEGREES NORTH (21.6 N) ONE ZERO FIVE POINT EIGHT DEGREES EAST (105.8 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 25 KNOTS. ** WTPQ20 BABJ 030800 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TY PRAPIROON 0606 (0606) INITIAL TIME 030800 UTC 00HR 21.2N 111.9E 975HPA 33M/S 30KTS 400KM 50KTS 100KM P12HR NW 20KM/H= ** WTPZ22 KNHC 030833 *** TCMEP2 TROPICAL DEPRESSION FABIO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 11 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072006 0900 UTC THU AUG 03 2006 TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.2N 135.8W AT 03/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 15 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.2N 135.8W AT 03/0900Z AT 03/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.2N 135.0W FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 15.4N 138.4W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 15.4N 141.6W MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 15.5N 144.9W...REMNANT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT. FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 15.5N 148.0W...REMNANT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT. FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.2N 135.8W NEXT ADVISORY AT 03/1500Z $$ FORECASTER MAINELLI/AVILA ** WTPZ23 KNHC 030834 *** TCMEP3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION GILMA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 10 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082006 0900 UTC THU AUG 03 2006 TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.4N 108.4W AT 03/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 5 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.4N 108.4W AT 03/0900Z AT 03/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.3N 108.0W FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 15.8N 109.2W...REMNANT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 16.5N 110.6W...REMNANT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.4N 108.4W NEXT ADVISORY AT 03/1500Z $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN/AVILA ** WTPZ43 KNHC 030834 *** TCDEP3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION GILMA DISCUSSION NUMBER 10 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082006 200 AM PDT THU AUG 03 2006 CONVECTION HAS CONTINUED TO DIMINISH AROUND GILMA AND THE CENTER REMAINS EXPOSED. DATA T-NUMBERS FROM TAFB AND SAB OF 1.5 AND 1.0 RESPECTIVELY...AND MAXIMUM WINDS OF 24 KT FROM A 0149 UTC HI-RES QUIKSCAT PASS JUSTIFY DECREASING THE INTENSITY TO 25 KT. THE SHIPS MODEL SUGGESTS SHEAR WILL CONTINUE OVER GILMA AND THE DEPRESSION WILL MOVE INTO AN EVEN DRIER ENVIRONMENT...MAKING THE PROSPECTS FOR ANY RE-STRENGTHENING SLIM. GILMA IS FORECAST TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW LATER TODAY...AND PERSIST FOR A DAY OR SO BEFORE DISSIPATION. THE CURRENT MOTION IS 285/5...AND GILMA WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST SOUTH OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE. THE FORECAST TRACK PRIOR TO DISSIPATION IS SLIGHTLY SLOWER AND TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 03/0900Z 15.4N 108.4W 25 KT 12HR VT 03/1800Z 15.8N 109.2W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW 24HR VT 04/0600Z 16.5N 110.6W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW 36HR VT 04/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN/AVILA ** WTNT33 KNHC 030838 *** TCPAT3 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM CHRIS ADVISORY NUMBER 11 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032006 500 AM AST THU AUG 03 2006 ...CHRIS WEAKENING IN A HURRY... AT 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. AND BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED. AT 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS DOWNGRADED THE HURRICANE WATCH TO A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS...AND FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS... INCLUDING THE ACKLINS...CROOKED ISLAND...THE INAGUAS...MAYAGUANA... AND THE RAGGED ISLANDS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM THE NORTHERN BORDER WITH HAITI TO CABO ENGANO. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 500 AM AST...0900Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CHRIS WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 66.4 WEST OR ABOUT 315 MILES...505 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF GRAND TURK ISLAND AND ABOUT 135 MILES...215 KM...NORTH OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO. CHRIS IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 13 MPH...20 KM/HR...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THIS TRACK THE CENTER OF CHRIS WILL BE MOVING AWAY FROM PUERTO RICO AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS TODAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 80 MILES...130 KM FROM THE CENTER. THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE WAS 1010 MB...29.83 INCHES. CHRIS IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES WITH ISOLATED TOTALS OF 10 INCHES OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF PUERTO RICO. TOTAL RAINFALL OF 2 TO 4 INCHES IS POSSIBLE OVER THE U.S. AND BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS AND THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC... WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 6 INCHES THROUGH TODAY. REPEATING THE 500 AM AST POSITION...20.3 N...66.4 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST NEAR 13 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1010 MB. AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 800 AM AST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1100 AM AST. $$ FORECASTER AVILA ** WTNT23 KNHC 030838 *** TCMAT3 TROPICAL STORM CHRIS FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 11 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032006 0900 UTC THU AUG 03 2006 AT 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. AND BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED. AT 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS DOWNGRADED THE HURRICANE WATCH TO A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS...AND FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS... INCLUDING THE ACKLINS...CROOKED ISLAND...THE INAGUAS...MAYAGUANA... AND THE RAGGED ISLANDS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM THE NORTHERN BORDER WITH HAITI TO CABO ENGANO. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.3N 66.4W AT 03/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 11 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1010 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT....... 70NE 70SE 0SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 90SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.3N 66.4W AT 03/0900Z AT 03/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.2N 65.8W FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 20.5N 68.0W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 70SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 20.8N 70.0W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 70SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 21.2N 72.0W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 70SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 21.5N 74.0W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 70SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 22.5N 79.0W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 70SE 0SW 0NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 07/0600Z 23.0N 84.0W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 08/0600Z 23.5N 89.0W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.3N 66.4W NEXT ADVISORY AT 03/1500Z $$ FORECASTER AVILA ** WTNT43 KNHC 030839 *** TCDAT3 TROPICAL STORM CHRIS DISCUSSION NUMBER 11 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032006 500 AM EDT THU AUG 03 2006 CHRIS IS BECOMING DISORGANIZED IN A HURRY. SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER HAS BECOME DETACHED FROM THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY DUE TO NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR...AND THIS WAS CONFIRMED BY FIXES FROM AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE. THE MINIMUM PRESSURE HAS RISEN TO 1010 MB AND THE MAXIMUM FLIGHT LEVEL WIND REPORTED SO FAR IS ONLY 38 KNOTS. HOWEVER...ASSUMING THAT THE ENTIRE CIRCULATION HAS NOT BEEN SAMPLED...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ADJUSTED TO 40 KNOTS... AND THIS IS VERY GENEROUS. I WAS TEMPTED TO FORECAST WEAKENING AND EVEN DISSIPATION OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...BUT THE BEST OPTION AT THIS TIME IS TO KEEP THE CYCLONE ON A STEADY STATE CONSIDERING THAT THE SHEAR COULD DECREASE...AS SUGGESTED BY THE SHIPS MODEL. THE BROAD CIRCULATION CENTER OF CHRIS APPEARS TO BE MOVING TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 10 KNOTS. ACCORDING TO ALL GLOBAL MODELS...A STRONG RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ANCHORED TO THE NORTH OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE. THEREFORE...CHRIS...OR WHATEVER IS LEFT OF THE SYSTEM...IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE WESTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...VERY NEAR THE NORTH COAST OF CUBA AND EVENTUALLY REACH THE SOUTH-CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO IN FIVE DAYS. THE DILEMMA IS THE FUTURE INTENSITY OF THE CYCLONE. IT COULD WEAKEN FURTHER AND DISSIPATE OR COULD REGAIN SOME STRENGTH. I AM IN FAVOR OF WEAKENING. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 03/0900Z 20.3N 66.4W 40 KT 12HR VT 03/1800Z 20.5N 68.0W 35 KT 24HR VT 04/0600Z 20.8N 70.0W 35 KT 36HR VT 04/1800Z 21.2N 72.0W 35 KT 48HR VT 05/0600Z 21.5N 74.0W 35 KT 72HR VT 06/0600Z 22.5N 79.0W 35 KT 96HR VT 07/0600Z 23.0N 84.0W 35 KT 120HR VT 08/0600Z 23.5N 89.0W 35 KT $$ FORECASTER AVILA ** WTNT83 KNHC 030839 *** TCVAT3 CHRIS WATCH/WARNING BREAKPOINTS/ADVISORY NUMBER 11 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032006 500 AM AST THU AUG 3 2006 .TROPICAL STORM CHRIS PRC001-003-005-007-009-011-013-015-017-019-021-023-025-027-029- 031-033-035-037-039-041-043-045-047-049-051-053-054-055-057-059- 061-063-065-067-069-071-073-075-077-079-081-083-085-087-089-091- 093-095-097-099-101-103-105-107-109-111-113-115-117-119-121-123- 125-127-129-131-133-135-137-139-141-143-145-147-149-151-153- VIC010-020-030-031500- /E.CAN.KNHC.TR.W.1003.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ 500 AM AST THU AUG 3 2006 PUERTO-RICO-ALL 18.20N 66.45W VIRGIN-IS.-(U.S.) 18.05N 64.80W $$ ATTN...WFO...SJU... ** WTCA43 TJSJ 030859 CCA *** TCPSP3 BOLETIN TORMENTA TROPICAL CHRIS ADVERTENCIA NUMERO 11 NWS TCP/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL AL032006 500 AM AST JUEVES 3 DE AGOSTO DE 2006 ...CHRIS SE ESTA DEBILITANDO RAPIDAMENTE... A LAS 500 AM AST...0900Z...LA VIGILANCIA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL PARA PUERTO RICO Y LAS ISLAS VIRGENES AMERICANAS HA SIDO DESCONTINUADO. A LAS 500 AM AST...0900Z...EL GOBIERNO DE LAS BAHAMAS HA CAMBIADO LA VIGILANCIA DE HURACAN A UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL PARA LAS ISLAS TURKS Y CAICOS...Y PARA EL SURESTE DE LAS BAHAMAS...INCLUYENDO ACKLINS... CROOKED ISLAND...INAGUAS...MAYAGUANA Y RAGGED ISLANDS. PERMANECE EN EFECTO UNA VIGILANCIA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL PARA PARA LA COSTA DE LA REPUBLICA DOMINICANA DESDE LA FRONTERA NORTE CON HAITI HASTA CABO ENGANO. UNA VIGILANCIA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SIGNIFICA QUE LAS CONDICIONES DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SON POSIBLES DENTRO DEL AREA BAJO VIGILANCIA...GENERALMENTE DENTRO DE LAS PROXIMAS 36 HORAS. PARA INFORMACION ESPECIFICA PARA SU AREA...INCLUYENDO POSIBLES VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS PARA AREAS TERRESTRES...FAVOR DE REFERIRSE A LOS PRODUCTOS EMITIDOS POR SU OFICINA METEOROLOGICA LOCAL. A LAS 500 AM AST...0900Z...EL CENTRO DE LA TORMENTA TROPICAL CHRIS ESTABA LOCALIZADA CERCA DE LA LATITUD 20.3 NORTE...LONGITUD 66.4 OESTE O COMO A 315 MILLAS...505 KM...AL ESTE SURESTE DE GRAND TURK ISLAND Y ALREDEDOR 135 MILES...215 KM...AL NORTE DE SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO. CHRIS SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL OESTE A CERCA DE 13 MPH...20 KM/HR...Y SE ESPERA QUE CONTINUE EN ESTE MOVIMIENTO GENERAL DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. EN ESTA TRAYECTORIA...EL CENTRO DE CHRIS SE MANTENDRIA AL NORTE DE PUERTO RICO. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS ESTAN EN CERCA DE 45 MPH...75 KM/HR... CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. SE ANTICIPA POCO CAMBIO EN SU FUERZA DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SE EXTIENDEN HACIA AFUERA HASTA 80 MILLAS...130 KILOMETROS...DEL CENTRO. LA PRESION MINIMA CENTRAL REPORTADA POR UN AVION DE RECONOSCIMIENTO DE LA FUERZA AEREA FUE DE 1010 MB...28.83 PULGADAS. SE ESPERA QUE CHRIS PRODUZCA ACUMULACIONES TOTALES DE LLUVIA DE 3 A 5 PULGADAS SOBRE LAS AREAS MAS ELEVADAS DE PUERTO RICO. ACUMULACIONES TOTALES DE LLUVIA DE 2 A 4 PULGADAS SON POSIBLES SOBRE LAS ISLAS VIRGENES BRITANICANAS Y LA REPUBLICA DOMINICANA...CON POSIBLES CANTIDADES AISLADAS MAXIMAS DE 6 PULGADAS POSIBLES HOY. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 5 AM AST...20.3 NORTE...66.4 OESTE. MOVIMIENTO HACIA...EL OESTE A CERCA DE 13 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS...45 MPH. PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA...1010 MILIBARAS. UNA ADVERTENCIA INTERMEDIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 800 AM AST SEGUIDA POR UNA ADVERTENCIA MAS DETALLADA A LAS 1100 AM AST. $$ PRONOSTICADOR AVILA ** WTPQ20 BABJ 030900 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TY PRAPIROON 0606 (0606) INITIAL TIME 030900 UTC 00HR 21.2N 111.8E 975HPA 33M/S 30KTS 400KM 50KTS 100KM P12HR NW 20KM/H P+24HR 23.6N 109.6E 985HPA 25M/S P+48HR 24.4N 106.3E 998HPA 18M/S= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 030900 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TY 0606 PRAPIROON (0606) ANALYSIS PSTN 030900UTC 21.1N 111.8E FAIR MOVE NW 10KT PRES 965HPA MXWD 070KT 50KT 60NM 30KT 240NM EAST 200NM WEST FORECAST 24HF 040900UTC 22.4N 109.3E 80NM 70% MOVE WNW 06KT PRES 975HPA MXWD 060KT 45HF 050600UTC 23.1N 107.9E 150NM 70% MOVE WNW SLOWLY PRES 992HPA MXWD 040KT 69HF 060600UTC 24.0N 106.2E 220NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION = ** WTJP31 RJTD 030900 *** WARNING 030900. WARNING VALID 040900. TYPHOON WARNING. TYPHOON 0606 PRAPIROON (0606) 965 HPA AT 21.1N 111.8E SOUTH CHINA SEA MOVING NORTHWEST 10 KNOTS. POSITION FAIR. MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 60 MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 240 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 200 MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION FOR 040900UTC AT 22.4N 109.3E WITH 80 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 975 HPA, MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTCA82 TJSJ 030957 *** HLSSJU PRZ001>013-VIZ001-002-AMZ710>750-031100- BULLETIN-IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED TROPICAL STORM CHRIS LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR 557 AM AST THU AUG 3 2006 ...TROPICAL STORM CHRIS WEAKENING AND MOVING SLOWLY AWAY FROM THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO... ...AT 500 AM AST...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED... ...NEW INFORMATION... WARNING INFORMATION. STORM INFORMATION. INLAND FLOODING. WINDS. ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT IS FOR THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO. ...WATCHES/WARNINGS... AT 500 AM AST...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 500 AM AST...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CHRIS WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 66.4 WEST...OR ABOUT 135 MILES NORTH OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO. CHRIS WAS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 13 MPH...WITH THIS GENERAL MOTION EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF CHRIS WILL BE MOVING AWAY FROM PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS TODAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 45 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... RAIN BANDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE OUTER FRINGES OF TROPICAL STORM CHRIS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE LOCAL ISLANDS TODAY AND WILL CONTAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAINFALL AND BRIEF STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS. ...WINDS... SUSTAINED TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE NO LONGER EXPECTED OVER LAND...AS CHRIS MOVES SLOWLY AWAY FROM THE LOCAL ISLANDS TODAY. HOWEVER...TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS...AT LEAST IN GUSTS...WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE ATLANTIC OFF SHORE WATERS THROUGH ABOUT 1100 AM...BEFORE DIMINISHING. ...INLAND FLOODING... OUTER RAIN BANDS WITH PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO THROUGH TODAY AND POSSIBLY TONIGHT...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL ON FRIDAY...AS LOW LEVEL WINDS SHIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST. RAINFALL TOTALS OF TWO TO FIVE INCHES ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS TODAY...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE INTERIOR SECTIONS AND HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF PUERTO RICO. SOME RIVERS WILL EXPERIENCE SIGNIFICANT RISES...WITH A FEW POSSIBLY EXCEEDING BANKFULL LATER TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY. ...MARINE IMPACTS... WATERSPOUTS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE ATLANTIC AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN WATERS TODAY...IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE OUTER RAIN BANDS OF CHRIS. SMALL CRAFT SHOULD REMAIN IN PORT THIS MORNING ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS. SEAS OF 12 TO 15 FEET WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE ATLANTIC OFF SHORE WATERS THROUGH ABOUT 1100 AM...SUBSIDING TO 8 TO 12 FEET THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN TO 5 TO 8 FEET TONIGHT. ACROSS THE REMAINING LOCAL COASTAL WATERS...SEAS SHOULD GENERALLY BE 6 FEET OR LESS. LOCALLY ROUGH AND CONFUSED SURF AND STRONG RIP CURRENTS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE WATERS OF THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND THE NORTHERN COASTS OF PUERTO RICO AND CULEBRA THROUGH TODAY...BUT BREAKING WAVE HEIGHTS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW 10 FEET ALONG THE LOCAL COASTLINES. THIS WILL BE THE LAST LOCAL STATEMENT ISSUED ON TROPICAL STORM CHRIS BY YOUR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE IN SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO. $$ BCS ** WTPQ20 BABJ 031000 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TY PRAPIROON 0606 (0606) INITIAL TIME 031000 UTC 00HR 21.3N 111.7E 975HPA 33M/S 30KTS 400KM 50KTS 100KM P12HR NW 20KM/H= ** WTSS20 VHHH 031045 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT 030900 UTC, TYPHOON PRAPIROON (0606) WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 965 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 30 NAUTICAL MILES OF TWO ONE POINT TWO DEGREES NORTH (21.2 N) ONE ONE ONE POINT EIGHT DEGREES EAST (111.8 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHWEST OR WEST-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 8 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 70 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 200 NAUTICAL MILES OVER EASTERN SEMICIRCLE, 120 NAUTICAL MILES ELSEWHERE. RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 90 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 63 KNOT WINDS 60 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 300 NAUTICAL MILES OVER EASTERN SEMICIRCLE, 200 NAUTICAL MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 040900 UTC TWO TWO POINT EIGHT DEGREES NORTH (22.8 N) ONE ZERO EIGHT POINT NINE DEGREES EAST (108.9 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 50 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 050900 UTC TWO TWO POINT FIVE DEGREES NORTH (22.5 N) ONE ZERO SIX POINT SIX DEGREES EAST (106.6 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 35 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 060900 UTC TWO ONE POINT SEVEN DEGREES NORTH (21.7 N) ONE ZERO FIVE POINT FIVE DEGREES EAST (105.5 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 20 KNOTS. ** WTSS20 VHHH 031045 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT 030900 UTC, TYPHOON PRAPIROON (0606) WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 965 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 30 NAUTICAL MILES OF TWO ONE POINT TWO DEGREES NORTH (21.2 N) ONE ONE ONE POINT EIGHT DEGREES EAST (111.8 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHWEST OR WEST-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 8 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 70 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 200 NAUTICAL MILES OVER EASTERN SEMICIRCLE, 120 NAUTICAL MILES ELSEWHERE. RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 90 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 63 KNOT WINDS 60 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 300 NAUTICAL MILES OVER EASTERN SEMICIRCLE, 200 NAUTICAL MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 040900 UTC TWO TWO POINT EIGHT DEGREES NORTH (22.8 N) ONE ZERO EIGHT POINT NINE DEGREES EAST (108.9 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 50 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 050900 UTC TWO TWO POINT FIVE DEGREES NORTH (22.5 N) ONE ZERO SIX POINT SIX DEGREES EAST (106.6 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 35 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 060900 UTC TWO ONE POINT SEVEN DEGREES NORTH (21.7 N) ONE ZERO FIVE POINT FIVE DEGREES EAST (105.5 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 20 KNOTS. ** WTPQ20 BABJ 031100 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TY PRAPIROON 0606 (0606) INITIAL TIME 031100 UTC 00HR 21.4N 111.6E 975HPA 33M/S 30KTS 400KM 50KTS 100KM P12HR NW 20KM/H= ** WTNT33 KNHC 031141 *** TCPAT3 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM CHRIS INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 11A NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032006 800 AM AST THU AUG 03 2006 ...CHRIS BARELY A TROPICAL STORM... A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS...AND FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...INCLUDING THE ACKLINS...CROOKED ISLAND...THE INAGUAS...MAYAGUANA...AND THE RAGGED ISLANDS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM THE NORTHERN BORDER WITH HAITI TO CABO ENGANO. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 800 AM AST...1200Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CHRIS WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 66.8 WEST OR ABOUT 285 MILES...460 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF GRAND TURK ISLAND. CHRIS IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/HR...AND A WEST-NORTHWEST TO WESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE INDICATE THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 80 MILES...130 KM FROM THE CENTER. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1012 MB...29.88 INCHES. CHRIS IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES WITH ISOLATED TOTALS OF 10 INCHES OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF PUERTO RICO. TOTAL RAINFALL OF 2 TO 4 INCHES IS POSSIBLE OVER THE U.S. AND BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS AND THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC... WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 6 INCHES THROUGH TODAY. REPEATING THE 800 AM AST POSITION...20.5 N...66.8 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1012 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 1100 AM AST. $$ FORECASTER PASCH