** WTNT83 KNHC 030003 *** TCVAT3 CHRIS WATCH/WARNING BREAKPOINTS/INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 9A NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032006 800 PM AST WED AUG 2 2006 .TROPICAL STORM CHRIS PRC001-003-005-007-009-011-013-015-017-019-021-023-025-027-029- 031-033-035-037-039-041-043-045-047-049-051-053-054-055-057-059- 061-063-065-067-069-071-073-075-077-079-081-083-085-087-089-091- 093-095-097-099-101-103-105-107-109-111-113-115-117-119-121-123- 125-127-129-131-133-135-137-139-141-143-145-147-149-151-153- VIC010-020-030-030300- /E.CON.KNHC.TR.W.1003.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ 800 PM AST WED AUG 2 2006 PUERTO-RICO-ALL 18.20N 66.45W VIRGIN-IS.-(U.S.) 18.05N 64.80W $$ ATTN...WFO...SJU... ** WTSR20 WSSS 021800 *** NO STORM WARNING= ** WTCA43 TJSJ 030009 *** TCPSP3 BOLETIN TORMENTA TROPICAL CHRIS ADVERTENCIA NUMERO 9A NWS TCP/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL AL032006 800 PM AST MIERCOLES 2 DE AGOSTO DE 2006 ...LAS BANDAS EXTERIORES DE CHRIS ESTAN PRODUCIENDO LLUVIA FUERTE SOBRE LAS ISLAS VIRGENES... ESTA EN EFECTO UNA VIGILANCIA DE HURACAN PARA LAS ISLAS TURKS Y CAICOS...Y PARA EL SURESTE DE LAS BAHAMAS...INCLUYENDO ACKLINS... CROOKED ISLAND...INAGUAS...MAYAGUANA Y RAGGED ISLANDS. UNA VIGILANCIA DE HURACAN SIGNIFICA QUE LAS CONDICIONES DE HURACAN SON POSIBLES DENTRO DEL AREA BAJO VIGILANCIA...GENERALMENTE DENTRO DE LAS PROXIMAS 36 HORAS. PERMANECE EN EFECTO UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL PARA PUERTO RICO Y LAS ISLAS VIRGENES AMERICANAS Y BRITANICAS. UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SIGNIFICA QUE SE ESPERAN CONDICIONES DE TORMENTA TROPICAL DENTRO DEL AREA BAJO AVISO DENTRO DE LAS PROXIMAS 12 A 24 HORAS. PARA INFORMACION ESPECIFICA PARA SU AREA...INCLUYENDO POSIBLES VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS PARA AREAS TERRESTRES...FAVOR DE REFERIRSE A LOS PRODUCTOS EMITIDOS POR SU OFICINA METEOROLOGICA LOCAL. A LAS 8 PM AST...0000Z...EL CENTRO DE LA TORMENTA TROPICAL CHRIS ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 19.8 NORTE...LONGITUD 64.5 OESTE O COMO A 100 MILLAS...160 KM...AL NORTE-NORESTE DE SAN TOMAS. CHRIS SE HA ESTADO TAMBALEANDO HACIA EL OESTE DURANTE LAS PASADAS PAR DE HORAS PERO EN GENERAL SE HA ESTADO MOVIENDO HACIA EL OESTE-NOROESTE A CERCA DE 8 MPH...13 KM/HR...Y SE ESPERA QUE CONTINUE ESTA TRAYECTORIA GENERAL POR LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. EN ESTA TRAYECTORIA...EL CENTRO DE CHRIS SE MANTENDRA AL NORTE DE LAS ISLAS VIRGENES Y PUERTO RICO. SINEMBARGO...ALGUNAS DE LAS FUERTES BANDAS DE LLUVIA EN EL LADO SUR DE CHRIS PROBABLEMENTE CONTINUEN AFECTANDO A PUERTO RICO Y A LAS ISLAS VIRGENES ESTA NOCHE Y EL JUEVES. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS ESTAN EN CERCA DE 60 MPH...95 KM/HR... CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. ES POSIBLE QUE OCURRA ALGUN FORTALECIMIENTO DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SE EXTIENDEN HACIA AFUERA HASTA 80 MILLAS...130 KILOMETROS. DATOS RECIENTES DEL AVION CAZA HURACANES DE LA FUERZA AEREA INDICAN QUE LA PRESION MINIMA CENTRAL ESTABA CERCA DE 1007 MB...28.74 PULGADAS. SE ESPERA QUE CHRIS PRODUZCA ACUMULACIONES TOTALES DE LLUVIA DE 2 A 4 PULGADAS SOBRE LAS ISLAS DE SOTAVENTO DEL NORTE...LAS ISLAS VIRGENES AMERICANAS Y PARTES DE PUERTO RICO...CON POSIBLES CANTIDADES AISLADAS MAXIMAS DE 8 PULGADAS POSIBLES SOBRE TERRENO MAS ALTO HASTA EL JUEVES. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 8 PM AST...19.8 NORTE...64.5 OESTE. MOVIMIENTO HACIA...EL OESTE-NOROESTE A CERCA DE 8 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS...60 MPH. PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA...1007 MILIBARAS. LA PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 11 PM AST. $$ PRONOSTICADOR PASCH ** WTCA43 TJSJ 030009 *** TCPSP3 BOLETIN TORMENTA TROPICAL CHRIS ADVERTENCIA NUMERO 9A NWS TCP/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL AL032006 800 PM AST MIERCOLES 2 DE AGOSTO DE 2006 ...LAS BANDAS EXTERIORES DE CHRIS ESTAN PRODUCIENDO LLUVIA FUERTE SOBRE LAS ISLAS VIRGENES... ESTA EN EFECTO UNA VIGILANCIA DE HURACAN PARA LAS ISLAS TURKS Y CAICOS...Y PARA EL SURESTE DE LAS BAHAMAS...INCLUYENDO ACKLINS... CROOKED ISLAND...INAGUAS...MAYAGUANA Y RAGGED ISLANDS. UNA VIGILANCIA DE HURACAN SIGNIFICA QUE LAS CONDICIONES DE HURACAN SON POSIBLES DENTRO DEL AREA BAJO VIGILANCIA...GENERALMENTE DENTRO DE LAS PROXIMAS 36 HORAS. PERMANECE EN EFECTO UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL PARA PUERTO RICO Y LAS ISLAS VIRGENES AMERICANAS Y BRITANICAS. UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SIGNIFICA QUE SE ESPERAN CONDICIONES DE TORMENTA TROPICAL DENTRO DEL AREA BAJO AVISO DENTRO DE LAS PROXIMAS 12 A 24 HORAS. PARA INFORMACION ESPECIFICA PARA SU AREA...INCLUYENDO POSIBLES VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS PARA AREAS TERRESTRES...FAVOR DE REFERIRSE A LOS PRODUCTOS EMITIDOS POR SU OFICINA METEOROLOGICA LOCAL. A LAS 8 PM AST...0000Z...EL CENTRO DE LA TORMENTA TROPICAL CHRIS ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 19.8 NORTE...LONGITUD 64.5 OESTE O COMO A 100 MILLAS...160 KM...AL NORTE-NORESTE DE SAN TOMAS. CHRIS SE HA ESTADO TAMBALEANDO HACIA EL OESTE DURANTE LAS PASADAS PAR DE HORAS PERO EN GENERAL SE HA ESTADO MOVIENDO HACIA EL OESTE-NOROESTE A CERCA DE 8 MPH...13 KM/HR...Y SE ESPERA QUE CONTINUE ESTA TRAYECTORIA GENERAL POR LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. EN ESTA TRAYECTORIA...EL CENTRO DE CHRIS SE MANTENDRA AL NORTE DE LAS ISLAS VIRGENES Y PUERTO RICO. SINEMBARGO...ALGUNAS DE LAS FUERTES BANDAS DE LLUVIA EN EL LADO SUR DE CHRIS PROBABLEMENTE CONTINUEN AFECTANDO A PUERTO RICO Y A LAS ISLAS VIRGENES ESTA NOCHE Y EL JUEVES. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS ESTAN EN CERCA DE 60 MPH...95 KM/HR... CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. ES POSIBLE QUE OCURRA ALGUN FORTALECIMIENTO DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SE EXTIENDEN HACIA AFUERA HASTA 80 MILLAS...130 KILOMETROS. DATOS RECIENTES DEL AVION CAZA HURACANES DE LA FUERZA AEREA INDICAN QUE LA PRESION MINIMA CENTRAL ESTABA CERCA DE 1007 MB...28.74 PULGADAS. SE ESPERA QUE CHRIS PRODUZCA ACUMULACIONES TOTALES DE LLUVIA DE 2 A 4 PULGADAS SOBRE LAS ISLAS DE SOTAVENTO DEL NORTE...LAS ISLAS VIRGENES AMERICANAS Y PARTES DE PUERTO RICO...CON POSIBLES CANTIDADES AISLADAS MAXIMAS DE 8 PULGADAS POSIBLES SOBRE TERRENO MAS ALTO HASTA EL JUEVES. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 8 PM AST...19.8 NORTE...64.5 OESTE. MOVIMIENTO HACIA...EL OESTE-NOROESTE A CERCA DE 8 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS...60 MPH. PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA...1007 MILIBARAS. LA PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 11 PM AST. $$ PRONOSTICADOR PASCH ** WTPQ20 BABJ 030000 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TY PRAPIROON 0606 (0606) INITIAL TIME 030000 UTC 00HR 20.5N 112.6E 975HPA 33M/S 30KTS 400KM 50KTS 100KM P12HR NW 20KM/H P+24HR 22.0N 109.8E 985HPA 28M/S P+48HR 23.0N 108.2E 990HPA 23M/S P+72HR 24.0N 106.3E 995HPA 15M/S= ** WTJP21 RJTD 030000 *** WARNING 030000. WARNING VALID 040000. WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS. TYPHOON WARNING. TYPHOON 0606 PRAPIROON (0606) 965 HPA AT 20.1N 112.8E SOUTH CHINA SEA MOVING NORTHNORTHWEST 08 KNOTS. POSITION FAIR. MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 60 MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 240 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 200 MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION FOR 040000UTC AT 21.2N 110.6E WITH 80 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 970 HPA, MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. FORECAST POSITION FOR 050000UTC AT 22.2N 108.7E WITH 150 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 985 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION FOR 060000UTC AT 23.1N 106.9E WITH 220 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 996 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 030000 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TY 0606 PRAPIROON (0606) ANALYSIS PSTN 030000UTC 20.1N 112.8E FAIR MOVE NNW 08KT PRES 965HPA MXWD 070KT 50KT 60NM 30KT 240NM EAST 200NM WEST FORECAST 24HF 040000UTC 21.2N 110.6E 80NM 70% MOVE WNW 06KT PRES 970HPA MXWD 065KT 48HF 050000UTC 22.2N 108.7E 150NM 70% MOVE WNW SLOWLY PRES 985HPA MXWD 050KT 72HF 060000UTC 23.1N 106.9E 220NM 70% MOVE WNW SLOWLY PRES 996HPA MXWD 035KT = ** WTPQ30 RJTD 030000 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING REASONING NO. 5 FOR TY 0606 PRAPIROON (0606) 1.GENERAL COMMENTS REASONING OF PROGNOSIS THIS TIME IS SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS ONE. POSITION FORECAST IS MAINLY BASED ON NWP AND PERSISTENCY. 2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION NOTHING PARTICULAR TO EXPLAIN. 3.MOTION FORECAST POSITION ACCURACY AT 030000 UTC IS FAIR. TY WILL MOVE AT THE SAME SPEED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TY WILL MOVE WEST-NORTHWEST FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. 4.INTENSITY FORECAST TY WILL KEEP PRESENT INTENSITY FOR NEXT 24 HOURS. FI-NUMBER WILL BE 4.0 AFTER 24 HOURS.= ** WTPQ20 BABJ 030100 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TY PRAPIROON 0606 (0606) INITIAL TIME 030100 UTC 00HR 20.4N 112.4E 975HPA 33M/S 30KTS 400KM 50KTS 100KM P12HR WNW 20KM/H= ** WTSS20 VHHH 030145 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT 030000 UTC, TYPHOON PRAPIROON (0606) WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 965 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 30 NAUTICAL MILES OF TWO ZERO POINT THREE DEGREES NORTH (20.3 N) ONE ONE TWO POINT SEVEN DEGREES EAST (112.7 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE WEST-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 7 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 70 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 210 NAUTICAL MILES OVER SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE, 180 NAUTICAL MILES ELSEWHERE. RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 120 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 63 KNOT WINDS 60 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 270 NAUTICAL MILES OVER SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE, 210 NAUTICAL MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 040000 UTC TWO ONE POINT SIX DEGREES NORTH (21.6 N) ONE ONE ZERO POINT FIVE DEGREES EAST (110.5 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 65 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 050000 UTC TWO TWO POINT ZERO DEGREES NORTH (22.0 N) ONE ZERO EIGHT POINT THREE DEGREES EAST (108.3 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 60 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 060000 UTC TWO ONE POINT EIGHT DEGREES NORTH (21.8 N) ONE ZERO SIX POINT NINE DEGREES EAST (106.9 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 40 KNOTS. ** WTSS20 VHHH 030145 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT 030000 UTC, TYPHOON PRAPIROON (0606) WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 965 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 30 NAUTICAL MILES OF TWO ZERO POINT THREE DEGREES NORTH (20.3 N) ONE ONE TWO POINT SEVEN DEGREES EAST (112.7 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE WEST-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 7 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 70 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 210 NAUTICAL MILES OVER SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE, 180 NAUTICAL MILES ELSEWHERE. RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 120 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 63 KNOT WINDS 60 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 270 NAUTICAL MILES OVER SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE, 210 NAUTICAL MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 040000 UTC TWO ONE POINT SIX DEGREES NORTH (21.6 N) ONE ONE ZERO POINT FIVE DEGREES EAST (110.5 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 65 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 050000 UTC TWO TWO POINT ZERO DEGREES NORTH (22.0 N) ONE ZERO EIGHT POINT THREE DEGREES EAST (108.3 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 60 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 060000 UTC TWO ONE POINT EIGHT DEGREES NORTH (21.8 N) ONE ZERO SIX POINT NINE DEGREES EAST (106.9 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 40 KNOTS. ** WTPQ20 BABJ 030200 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TY PRAPIROON 0606 (0606) INITIAL TIME 030200 UTC 00HR 20.5N 112.4E 975HPA 33M/S 30KTS 400KM 50KTS 100KM P12HR WNW 20KM/H= ** WTPN31 PGTW 030300 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TYPHOON 07W (PRAPIROON) WARNING NR 013 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 030000Z --- NEAR 20.1N 113.0E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 340 DEGREES AT 08 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 20.1N 113.0E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 031200Z --- 21.0N 112.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 040000Z --- 22.1N 111.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 041200Z --- 22.9N 110.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 030300Z POSITION NEAR 20.3N 112.8E. TYPHOON (TY) 07W (PRAPIROON), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 150 NM SOUTH- SOUTHWEST OF HONG KONG, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 030000Z IS 24 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 030900Z, 031500Z, 032100Z AND 040300Z.// ** WTPZ43 KNHC 030229 *** TCDEP3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION GILMA DISCUSSION NUMBER 9 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082006 800 PM PDT WED AUG 02 2006 GILMA LOOKS RATHER DISORGANIZED TONIGHT WITH AN EXPOSED CENTER ON THE EAST SIDE AND A NOTICEABLE LACK OF CONVECTION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 30 KT IN ACCORDANCE WITH SATELLITE ESTIMATES. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS THE WEAKENING EFFECTS OF PERSISTENT EASTERLY SHEAR ARE SOMEWHAT BALANCED BY WARM SSTS. THEREAFTER...COOLING SSTS SHOULD FINISH OFF WHAT'S LEFT OF THE CYCLONE. IT IS ALSO WORTH NOTING THE POSSIBILITY THAT GILMA COULD WEAKEN FASTER THAN FORECAST IF THE CONVECTION DOES NOT REFIRE NEAR THE CENTER. THE CYCLONE SHOULD CONTINUE ITS WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION.. CURRENTLY 295/7...DUE TO WEAK MIDDLE-LEVEL RIDGING TO THE NORTH. SYNOPTIC REASONING IS THE SAME AS BEFORE WITH A BUILDING RIDGE FORECAST OVER NORTHWEST MEXICO.. WHICH SHOULD ALLOW GILMA TO MOVE MORE TO THE NORTHWEST IN A DAY OR SO WITH SOME ACCELERATION. THE TRACK FORECAST IS QUITE SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS... AND FOLLOWS BAM SHALLOW CLOSELY AFTER 2 DAYS ANTICIPATING THE CYCLONE'S DEMISE. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 03/0300Z 15.4N 107.8W 30 KT 12HR VT 03/1200Z 15.8N 108.7W 30 KT 24HR VT 04/0000Z 16.6N 110.2W 30 KT 36HR VT 04/1200Z 17.6N 111.6W 30 KT 48HR VT 05/0000Z 18.5N 113.0W 30 KT...DISSIPATING 72HR VT 06/0000Z 20.0N 115.5W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW 96HR VT 07/0000Z 20.5N 117.5W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW 120HR VT 08/0000Z 20.5N 120.5W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW $$ FORECASTER BLAKE/KNABB ** WTPZ23 KNHC 030230 *** TCMEP3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION GILMA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 9 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082006 0300 UTC THU AUG 03 2006 TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.4N 107.8W AT 03/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 7 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.4N 107.8W AT 03/0300Z AT 03/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.2N 107.5W FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 15.8N 108.7W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 16.6N 110.2W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 17.6N 111.6W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 18.5N 113.0W...DISSIPATING MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 20.0N 115.5W...REMNANT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 07/0000Z 20.5N 117.5W...REMNANT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 08/0000Z 20.5N 120.5W...REMNANT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.4N 107.8W NEXT ADVISORY AT 03/0900Z $$ FORECASTER BLAKE/KNABB ** WTPZ22 KNHC 030231 *** TCMEP2 TROPICAL DEPRESSION FABIO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 10 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072006 0300 UTC THU AUG 03 2006 TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.3N 134.3W AT 03/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 15 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. 12 FT SEAS.. 45NE 0SE 0SW 45NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.3N 134.3W AT 03/0300Z AT 03/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.2N 133.5W FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 15.5N 136.7W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 15.6N 140.1W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 15.8N 143.4W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 16.0N 146.5W...REMNANT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 16.0N 153.5W...REMNANT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 07/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.3N 134.3W NEXT ADVISORY AT 03/0900Z $$ FORECASTER BLAKE/KNABB ** WTPZ42 KNHC 030231 *** TCDEP2 TROPICAL DEPRESSION FABIO DISCUSSION NUMBER 10 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072006 800 PM PDT WED AUG 02 2006 THE CENTER OF FABIO IS COMPLETELY EXPOSED TONIGHT WITH ONLY A BURST OF THUNDERSTORMS ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE CYCLONE. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES SUGGEST THAT FABIO IS NOW A DEPRESSION AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL BE 30 KT. ANY CONVECTION AROUND THE CENTER IS EXPECTED TO BE TEMPORARY DUE TO PLENTY OF DRY STABLE AIR AND EASTERLY WIND SHEAR. A GRADUAL SPIN DOWN IS ANTICIPATED AND SHOULD BECOME MORE PRONOUNCED IN A COUPLE DAYS AS STRONGER SOUTHERLY SHEAR HITS THE CYCLONE. IF NEW BURSTS OF CONVECTION DO NOT OCCUR...THE SYSTEM MAY BECOME A REMNANT LOW SOONER THAN SHOWN HERE. THE LAST SIX HOURS OF MOTION HAVE FABIO RIGHT ON TRACK... 275 DEGREES... AT A LITTLE FASTER RATE OF 15 KT. MODEL GUIDANCE IS GENERALLY FASTER THAN EARLIER TODAY SEEMINGLY DUE TO A RATHER STRONG MIDDLE-LEVEL HIGH NORTHEAST OF HAWAII. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST ALSO IS FASTER AND CLOSE TO CONU...TAKING THE SYSTEM SOUTH OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 03/0300Z 15.3N 134.3W 30 KT 12HR VT 03/1200Z 15.5N 136.7W 30 KT 24HR VT 04/0000Z 15.6N 140.1W 30 KT 36HR VT 04/1200Z 15.8N 143.4W 30 KT 48HR VT 05/0000Z 16.0N 146.5W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW 72HR VT 06/0000Z 16.0N 153.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 96HR VT 07/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER BLAKE/KNABB ** WTNT33 KNHC 030243 *** TCPAT3 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM CHRIS ADVISORY NUMBER 10 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032006 1100 PM AST WED AUG 02 2006 ...CHRIS TURNS WESTWARD... ...TROPICAL STORM WATCH ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC... A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS...AND FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...INCLUDING THE ACKLINS...CROOKED ISLAND...THE INAGUAS...MAYAGUANA...AND THE RAGGED ISLANDS. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. AND BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AT 1100 PM AST...0300Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM THE NORTHERN BORDER WITH HAITI TO SANTO DOMINGO. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 1100 PM AST...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CHRIS WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 64.9 WEST OR ABOUT 95 MILES...155 KM...NORTH OF ST. THOMAS AND ABOUT 125 MILES...200 KM... NORTHEAST OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO. CHRIS IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 8 MPH...13 KM/HR...ALTHOUGH THE CENTER APPEARS TO HAVE WOBBLED SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF DUE WEST DURING THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS. A GENERAL MOTION TOWARD THE WEST IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF CHRIS WOULD STAY NORTH OF PUERTO RICO. HOWEVER...A CONTINUED MOTION TO THE SOUTH OF DUE WEST COULD BRING THE CENTER OF CHRIS VERY CLOSE TO PUERTO RICO THURSDAY MORNING. REGARDLESS OF THE TRACK OF THE CENTER...CHRIS IS EXPECTED TO BRING OCCASIONAL HEAVY RAINS AND GUSTY WINDS TO PUERTO RICO AND U.S. AND BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ANOTHER AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WILL INVESTIGATE CHRIS IN A FEW HOURS. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 80 MILES...130 KM...MAINLY TO THE EAST FROM THE CENTER. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007 MB...29.74 INCHES. CHRIS IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES OVER THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS...THE U.S. AND BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO...AND THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 8 INCHES OVER HIGHER TERRAIN THROUGH THURSDAY. REPEATING THE 1100 PM AST POSITION...19.8 N...64.9 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST NEAR 8 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB. AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 200 AM AST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 500 AM AST. $$ FORECASTER KNABB ** WTNT23 KNHC 030244 *** TCMAT3 TROPICAL STORM CHRIS FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 10 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032006 0300 UTC THU AUG 03 2006 A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS...AND FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...INCLUDING THE ACKLINS...CROOKED ISLAND...THE INAGUAS...MAYAGUANA...AND THE RAGGED ISLANDS. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. AND BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AT 1100 PM AST...0300Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM THE NORTHERN BORDER WITH HAITI TO SANTO DOMINGO. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.8N 64.9W AT 03/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 7 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. 50 KT....... 25NE 25SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT....... 70NE 70SE 0SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 90SE 40SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.8N 64.9W AT 03/0300Z AT 03/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.8N 64.6W FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 20.1N 66.2W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 25NE 25SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 70NE 70SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 20.4N 68.0W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 70NE 70SE 30SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 20.8N 70.2W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 70NE 70SE 30SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 21.2N 72.5W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 70NE 70SE 50SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 22.0N 77.5W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 70NE 70SE 50SW 70NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 07/0000Z 22.5N 82.5W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 08/0000Z 23.5N 87.5W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.8N 64.9W NEXT ADVISORY AT 03/0900Z $$ FORECASTER KNABB ** WTNT83 KNHC 030246 *** TCVAT3 CHRIS WATCH/WARNING BREAKPOINTS/ADVISORY NUMBER 10 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032006 1100 PM AST WED AUG 2 2006 .TROPICAL STORM CHRIS PRC001-003-005-007-009-011-013-015-017-019-021-023-025-027-029- 031-033-035-037-039-041-043-045-047-049-051-053-054-055-057-059- 061-063-065-067-069-071-073-075-077-079-081-083-085-087-089-091- 093-095-097-099-101-103-105-107-109-111-113-115-117-119-121-123- 125-127-129-131-133-135-137-139-141-143-145-147-149-151-153- VIC010-020-030-030900- /E.CON.KNHC.TR.W.1003.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ 1100 PM AST WED AUG 2 2006 PUERTO-RICO-ALL 18.20N 66.45W VIRGIN-IS.-(U.S.) 18.05N 64.80W $$ ATTN...WFO...SJU... ** WTNT83 KNHC 030255 *** TCVAT3 CHRIS WATCH/WARNING BREAKPOINTS/ADVISORY NUMBER 10 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032006 1100 PM AST WED AUG 2 2006 .TROPICAL STORM CHRIS PRC001-003-005-007-009-011-013-015-017-019-021-023-025-027-029- 031-033-035-037-039-041-043-045-047-049-051-053-054-055-057-059- 061-063-065-067-069-071-073-075-077-079-081-083-085-087-089-091- 093-095-097-099-101-103-105-107-109-111-113-115-117-119-121-123- 125-127-129-131-133-135-137-139-141-143-145-147-149-151-153- VIC010-020-030-030900- /E.CON.KNHC.TR.W.1003.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ 1100 PM AST WED AUG 2 2006 PUERTO-RICO-ALL 18.20N 66.45W VIRGIN-IS.-(U.S.) 18.05N 64.80W $$ ATTN...WFO...SJU... ** WTNT43 KNHC 030300 *** TCDAT3 TROPICAL STORM CHRIS DISCUSSION NUMBER 10 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032006 1100 PM EDT WED AUG 02 2006 CHRIS HAS TURNED WESTWARD THIS EVENING...AS INDICATED BY A SERIES OF AIRCRAFT RECON FIXES ENDING AROUND 00Z...WSR-88D RADAR IMAGERY FROM SAN JUAN...AND GOES SATELLITE IMAGERY. WITHIN THE LAST COUPLE OF HOURS...THE RADAR IMAGERY EVEN SUGGESTS A MOTION A LITTLE SOUTH OF DUE WEST. FOR NOW I WILL CONSIDER THAT SOUTHWARD COMPONENT AS A WOBBLE AND ESTIMATE THE INITIAL MOTION TO BE WESTWARD OR 270 DEGREES AT 7 KT. THE ONLY DYNAMICAL MODEL TO FORECAST A WESTWARD MOTION DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS THE GFDL...AND ITS SOUTHERN TRACK SOLUTION NO LONGER SEEMS SO MUCH OF AN OUTLIER. ALSO...OVERALL THE MODEL GUIDANCE SUITE HAS SHIFTED SOUTH...SEEMINGLY IN RESPONSE TO THE STRENGTHENING DEEP-LAYER RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF CHRIS. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS SHIFTED SOUTHWARD...BUT OUT OF RESPECT FOR THE REMAINING MODELS...NOT AS FAR SOUTH AS THE GFDL. CHRIS HAS BEEN PERSISTENTLY PRODUCING VERY DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE CIRCULATION CENTER THIS EVENING...WITH CLOUD TOPS AS COLD AS -80C. WSR-88D RADAR IMAGERY FROM SAN JUAN DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS HAS DEPICTED A CIRCULATION NEAR 25000 FT IN ALTITUDE. THE LAST FIX FROM THE AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT AT AROUND 00Z LOCATED THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER A LITTLE WEST OF THAT FEATURE...WITH A CENTRAL PRESSURE OF ABOUT 1007 MB. THE ADVISORY INTENSITY REMAINS 50 KT. IN ACCORDANCE WITH MOST OF THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE...THE NEW OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS ADJUSTED DOWNWARD SLIGHTLY IN THE PERIOD BEFORE IT POSSIBLY INTERACTS WITH THE LANDMASSES OF THE GREATER ANTILLES. FOLLOWING THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST...CHRIS WOULD PASS OVER LAND LONG ENOUGH TO WEAKEN LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD BEFORE EMERGING INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO...IF IT LASTS THAT LONG. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 03/0300Z 19.8N 64.9W 50 KT 12HR VT 03/1200Z 20.1N 66.2W 50 KT 24HR VT 04/0000Z 20.4N 68.0W 55 KT 36HR VT 04/1200Z 20.8N 70.2W 60 KT 48HR VT 05/0000Z 21.2N 72.5W 60 KT 72HR VT 06/0000Z 22.0N 77.5W 60 KT 96HR VT 07/0000Z 22.5N 82.5W 45 KT 120HR VT 08/0000Z 23.5N 87.5W 60 KT $$ FORECASTER KNABB ** WTNT63 KNHC 030303 *** TCUAT3 TROPICAL STORM CHRIS TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032006 1100 PM AST WED AUG 02 2006 THE GOVERNMENT OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC HAS MODIFIED THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC TO BE IN EFFECT FROM THE NORTHERN BORDER WITH HAITI EASTWARD TO CABO ENGANO. $$ FORECASTER BLAKE/KNABB ** WTNT33 KNHC 030307 *** TCPAT3 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM CHRIS ADVISORY NUMBER 10...CORRECTED NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032006 1100 PM AST WED AUG 02 2006 ...CORRECTED TO MODIFY TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC... ...CHRIS TURNS WESTWARD... ...TROPICAL STORM WATCH ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC... A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS...AND FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...INCLUDING THE ACKLINS...CROOKED ISLAND...THE INAGUAS...MAYAGUANA...AND THE RAGGED ISLANDS. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. AND BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AT 1100 PM AST...0300Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM THE NORTHERN BORDER WITH HAITI TO CABO ENGANO. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 1100 PM AST...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CHRIS WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 64.9 WEST OR ABOUT 95 MILES...155 KM...NORTH OF ST. THOMAS AND ABOUT 125 MILES...200 KM... NORTHEAST OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO. CHRIS IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 8 MPH...13 KM/HR...ALTHOUGH THE CENTER APPEARS TO HAVE WOBBLED SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF DUE WEST DURING THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS. A GENERAL MOTION TOWARD THE WEST IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF CHRIS WOULD STAY NORTH OF PUERTO RICO. HOWEVER...A CONTINUED MOTION TO THE SOUTH OF DUE WEST COULD BRING THE CENTER OF CHRIS VERY CLOSE TO PUERTO RICO THURSDAY MORNING. REGARDLESS OF THE TRACK OF THE CENTER...CHRIS IS EXPECTED TO BRING OCCASIONAL HEAVY RAINS AND GUSTY WINDS TO PUERTO RICO AND U.S. AND BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ANOTHER AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WILL INVESTIGATE CHRIS IN A FEW HOURS. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 80 MILES...130 KM...MAINLY TO THE EAST FROM THE CENTER. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007 MB...29.74 INCHES. CHRIS IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES OVER THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS...THE U.S. AND BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO...AND THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 8 INCHES OVER HIGHER TERRAIN THROUGH THURSDAY. REPEATING THE 1100 PM AST POSITION...19.8 N...64.9 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST NEAR 8 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB. AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 200 AM AST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 500 AM AST. $$ FORECASTER KNABB ** WTCA43 TJSJ 030308 *** TCPSP3 BOLETIN TORMENTA TROPICAL CHRIS ADVERTENCIA NUMERO 10 NWS TCP/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL AL032006 1100 PM AST MIERCOLES 2 DE AGOSTO DE 2006 ...CHRIS GIRA AL OESTE... ...SE EMITE VIGILANCIA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL PARA PORCIONES DE LA REPUBLICA DOMINICANA... ESTA EN EFECTO UNA VIGILANCIA DE HURACAN PARA LAS ISLAS TURKS Y CAICOS...Y PARA EL SURESTE DE LAS BAHAMAS...INCLUYENDO ACKLINS... CROOKED ISLAND...INAGUAS...MAYAGUANA Y RAGGED ISLANDS. UNA VIGILANCIA DE HURACAN SIGNIFICA QUE LAS CONDICIONES DE HURACAN SON POSIBLES DENTRO DEL AREA BAJO VIGILANCIA...GENERALMENTE DENTRO DE LAS PROXIMAS 36 HORAS. PERMANECE EN EFECTO UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL PARA PUERTO RICO Y LAS ISLAS VIRGENES AMERICANAS Y BRITANICAS. UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SIGNIFICA QUE SE ESPERAN CONDICIONES DE TORMENTA TROPICAL DENTRO DEL AREA BAJO AVISO DENTRO DE LAS PROXIMAS 12 A 24 HORAS. PARA INFORMACION ESPECIFICA PARA SU AREA...INCLUYENDO POSIBLES VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS PARA AREAS TERRESTRES...FAVOR DE REFERIRSE A LOS PRODUCTOS EMITIDOS POR SU OFICINA METEOROLOGICA LOCAL. A LAS 1100 PM AST...0300Z...EL GOBIERNO DE LA REPUBLICA DOMINICANA HA EMITIDO UNA VIGILANCIA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL PARA LA COSTA DE LA REPUBLICA DOMINICANA DESDE LA FRONTERA NORTE CON HAITI HASTA SANTO DOMINGO. UNA VIGILANCIA DE INUNDACIONES REPENTINAS SIGNIFICA QUE CONDICIONES DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SON POSIBLES EN EL AREA DE LA VIGILANCIA...GENERALMENTE DENTRO DE LAS SIGUIENTES 36 HORAS. PARA INFORMACION ESPECIFICA PARA SU AREA...INCLUYENDO POSIBLES VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS PARA AREAS TERRESTRES...FAVOR DE REFERIRSE A LOS PRODUCTOS EMITIDOS POR SU OFICINA METEOROLOGICA LOCAL. A LAS 1100 PM AST...0300Z...EL CENTRO DE LA TORMENTA TROPICAL CHRIS ESTABA LOCALIZADA CERCA DE LA LATITUD 19.8 NORTE...LONGITUD 64.9 OESTE O COMO A 95 MILLAS...155 KM...AL NORTE DE SAN THOMAS Y COMO A 125 MILLAS ...200 KM...AL NORESTE DE SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO. CHRIS SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL OESTE A CERCA DE 8 MPH...13 KM/HR...AUNQUE EL CENTRO PARECE ESTAR ACTUANDO ERRATICAMENTE Y ESTAR LEVEMENTE AL SUR DEL OESTE DURANTE LAS PASADAS PAR DE HORAS. SE PRONOSTICA UNA TRAYECTORIA GENERAL HACIA EL OESTE DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. EN ESTA TRAYECTORIA...EL CENTRO DE CHRIS SE MANTENDRIA AL NORTE DE PUERTO RICO. SINEMBARGO...UN MOVIMIENTO CONTINUO HACIA EL SUR DE EXACTAMENTE AL OESTE LLEVARIA AL CENTRO DE CRIS MUY CERCA A PUERTO RICO EL JUEVES EN LA MANANA. SIN IMPORTAR LA TRAYECTORIA DEL CENTRO...SE ESPERA QUE CHRIS TRAIGA LLUVIAS OCASIONALMENTE FUERETES Y RAFAGAS DE VIENTOS A PUERTO RICO Y A LAS ISLAS VIRGENES AMERICANAS Y BRITANICAS ESTA NOCHE Y EL JUEVES. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS ESTAN EN CERCA DE 60 MPH...95 KM/HR... CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. SE PRONOSTICA POCO POCO EN FORTALECIMIENTO DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. OTRO AVION DE RECONOCIMIENTO DE LA FUERZA AEREA INVESTIGARA A CHRIS EN ALGUNAS HORAS. LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SE EXTIENDEN HACIA AFUERA HASTA 80 MILLAS...130 KILOMETROS...MAYORMENTE AL ESTE DEL CENTRO. LA PRESION MINIMA CENTRAL ESTIMADA ES DE 1007 MB...28.74 PULGADAS. SE ESPERA QUE CHRIS PRODUZCA ACUMULACIONES TOTALES DE LLUVIA DE 2 A 4 PULGADAS SOBRE LAS ISLAS DE SOTAVENTO DEL NORTE...LAS ISLAS VIRGENES AMERICANAS PARTES DE PUERTO RICO...Y LA REPUBLICA DOMINICANA...CON POSIBLES CANTIDADES AISLADAS MAXIMAS DE 8 PULGADAS POSIBLES SOBRE TERRENO MAS ALTO HASTA EL JUEVES. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 11 PM AST...19.8 NORTE...64.9 OESTE. MOVIMIENTO HACIA...EL OESTE A CERCA DE 8 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS...60 MPH. PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA...1007 MILIBARAS. UNA ADVERTENCIA INTERMEDIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 200 AM AST SEGUIDA POR UNA ADVERTENCIA MAS DETALLADA A LAS 500 AM AST. $$ PRONOSTICADOR KNABB ** WTCA43 TJSJ 030309 CCA *** TCPSP3 BOLETIN TORMENTA TROPICAL CHRIS ADVERTENCIA NUMERO 10 NWS TCP/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL AL032006 1100 PM AST MIERCOLES 2 DE AGOSTO DE 2006 ...CORRECCION PARA NOTIFICAR UNA VIGILANCIA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL PARA LA REPUBLICA DOMINICANA... ...CHRIS GIRA AL OESTE... ...SE EMITE VIGILANCIA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL PARA PORCIONES DE LA REPUBLICA DOMINICANA... ESTA EN EFECTO UNA VIGILANCIA DE HURACAN PARA LAS ISLAS TURKS Y CAICOS...Y PARA EL SURESTE DE LAS BAHAMAS...INCLUYENDO ACKLINS... CROOKED ISLAND...INAGUAS...MAYAGUANA Y RAGGED ISLANDS. UNA VIGILANCIA DE HURACAN SIGNIFICA QUE LAS CONDICIONES DE HURACAN SON POSIBLES DENTRO DEL AREA BAJO VIGILANCIA...GENERALMENTE DENTRO DE LAS PROXIMAS 36 HORAS. PERMANECE EN EFECTO UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL PARA PUERTO RICO Y LAS ISLAS VIRGENES AMERICANAS Y BRITANICAS. UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SIGNIFICA QUE SE ESPERAN CONDICIONES DE TORMENTA TROPICAL DENTRO DEL AREA BAJO AVISO DENTRO DE LAS PROXIMAS 12 A 24 HORAS. PARA INFORMACION ESPECIFICA PARA SU AREA...INCLUYENDO POSIBLES VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS PARA AREAS TERRESTRES...FAVOR DE REFERIRSE A LOS PRODUCTOS EMITIDOS POR SU OFICINA METEOROLOGICA LOCAL. A LAS 1100 PM AST...0300Z...EL GOBIERNO DE LA REPUBLICA DOMINICANA HA EMITIDO UNA VIGILANCIA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL PARA LA COSTA DE LA REPUBLICA DOMINICANA DESDE LA FRONTERA NORTE CON HAITI HASTA SANTO DOMINGO. UNA VIGILANCIA DE INUNDACIONES REPENTINAS SIGNIFICA QUE CONDICIONES DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SON POSIBLES EN EL AREA DE LA VIGILANCIA...GENERALMENTE DENTRO DE LAS SIGUIENTES 36 HORAS. PARA INFORMACION ESPECIFICA PARA SU AREA...INCLUYENDO POSIBLES VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS PARA AREAS TERRESTRES...FAVOR DE REFERIRSE A LOS PRODUCTOS EMITIDOS POR SU OFICINA METEOROLOGICA LOCAL. A LAS 1100 PM AST...0300Z...EL CENTRO DE LA TORMENTA TROPICAL CHRIS ESTABA LOCALIZADA CERCA DE LA LATITUD 19.8 NORTE...LONGITUD 64.9 OESTE O COMO A 95 MILLAS...155 KM...AL NORTE DE SAN THOMAS Y COMO A 125 MILLAS ...200 KM...AL NORESTE DE SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO. CHRIS SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL OESTE A CERCA DE 8 MPH...13 KM/HR...AUNQUE EL CENTRO PARECE ESTAR ACTUANDO ERRATICAMENTE Y ESTAR LEVEMENTE AL SUR DEL OESTE DURANTE LAS PASADAS PAR DE HORAS. SE PRONOSTICA UNA TRAYECTORIA GENERAL HACIA EL OESTE DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. EN ESTA TRAYECTORIA...EL CENTRO DE CHRIS SE MANTENDRIA AL NORTE DE PUERTO RICO. SINEMBARGO...UN MOVIMIENTO CONTINUO HACIA EL SUR DE EXACTAMENTE AL OESTE LLEVARIA AL CENTRO DE CRIS MUY CERCA A PUERTO RICO EL JUEVES EN LA MANANA. SIN IMPORTAR LA TRAYECTORIA DEL CENTRO...SE ESPERA QUE CHRIS TRAIGA LLUVIAS OCASIONALMENTE FUERETES Y RAFAGAS DE VIENTOS A PUERTO RICO Y A LAS ISLAS VIRGENES AMERICANAS Y BRITANICAS ESTA NOCHE Y EL JUEVES. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS ESTAN EN CERCA DE 60 MPH...95 KM/HR... CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. SE PRONOSTICA POCO POCO EN FORTALECIMIENTO DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. OTRO AVION DE RECONOCIMIENTO DE LA FUERZA AEREA INVESTIGARA A CHRIS EN ALGUNAS HORAS. LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SE EXTIENDEN HACIA AFUERA HASTA 80 MILLAS...130 KILOMETROS...MAYORMENTE AL ESTE DEL CENTRO. LA PRESION MINIMA CENTRAL ESTIMADA ES DE 1007 MB...28.74 PULGADAS. SE ESPERA QUE CHRIS PRODUZCA ACUMULACIONES TOTALES DE LLUVIA DE 2 A 4 PULGADAS SOBRE LAS ISLAS DE SOTAVENTO DEL NORTE...LAS ISLAS VIRGENES AMERICANAS PARTES DE PUERTO RICO...Y LA REPUBLICA DOMINICANA...CON POSIBLES CANTIDADES AISLADAS MAXIMAS DE 8 PULGADAS POSIBLES SOBRE TERRENO MAS ALTO HASTA EL JUEVES. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 11 PM AST...19.8 NORTE...64.9 OESTE. MOVIMIENTO HACIA...EL OESTE A CERCA DE 8 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS...60 MPH. PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA...1007 MILIBARAS. UNA ADVERTENCIA INTERMEDIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 200 AM AST SEGUIDA POR UNA ADVERTENCIA MAS DETALLADA A LAS 500 AM AST. $$ PRONOSTICADOR KNABB ** WTNT23 KNHC 030311 *** TCMAT3 TROPICAL STORM CHRIS FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 10...CORRECTED NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032006 0300 UTC THU AUG 03 2006 ...CORRECTED TO MODIFY TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC... A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS...AND FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...INCLUDING THE ACKLINS...CROOKED ISLAND...THE INAGUAS...MAYAGUANA...AND THE RAGGED ISLANDS. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. AND BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AT 1100 PM AST...0300Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM THE NORTHERN BORDER WITH HAITI TO CABO ENGANO. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.8N 64.9W AT 03/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 7 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. 50 KT....... 25NE 25SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT....... 70NE 70SE 0SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 90SE 40SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.8N 64.9W AT 03/0300Z AT 03/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.8N 64.6W FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 20.1N 66.2W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 25NE 25SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 70NE 70SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 20.4N 68.0W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 70NE 70SE 30SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 20.8N 70.2W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 70NE 70SE 30SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 21.2N 72.5W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 70NE 70SE 50SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 22.0N 77.5W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 70NE 70SE 50SW 70NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 07/0000Z 22.5N 82.5W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 08/0000Z 23.5N 87.5W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.8N 64.9W NEXT ADVISORY AT 03/0900Z $$ FORECASTER KNABB ** WTPQ20 BABJ 030300 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TY PRAPIROON 0606 (0606) INITIAL TIME 030300 UTC 00HR 20.5N 112.4E 975HPA 33M/S 30KTS 400KM 50KTS 100KM P12HR WNW 20KM/H= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 030300 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TY 0606 PRAPIROON (0606) ANALYSIS PSTN 030300UTC 20.3N 112.5E FAIR MOVE NW 10KT PRES 965HPA MXWD 070KT 50KT 60NM 30KT 240NM EAST 200NM WEST FORECAST 24HF 040300UTC 21.4N 110.3E 80NM 70% MOVE WNW SLOWLY PRES 970HPA MXWD 065KT 45HF 050000UTC 22.2N 108.7E 150NM 70% MOVE WNW SLOWLY PRES 985HPA MXWD 050KT 69HF 060000UTC 23.1N 106.9E 220NM 70% MOVE WNW SLOWLY PRES 996HPA MXWD 035KT = ** WTJP31 RJTD 030300 *** WARNING 030300. WARNING VALID 040300. TYPHOON WARNING. TYPHOON 0606 PRAPIROON (0606) 965 HPA AT 20.3N 112.5E SOUTH CHINA SEA MOVING NORTHWEST 10 KNOTS. POSITION FAIR. MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 60 MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 240 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 200 MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION FOR 040300UTC AT 21.4N 110.3E WITH 80 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 970 HPA, MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTCA82 TJSJ 030348 *** HLSSJU PRZ001>013-VIZ001-002-AMZ710>750-030600- BULLETIN-IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED TROPICAL STORM CHRIS LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR 1130 PM AST WED AUG 2 2006 ...TROPICAL STORM CHRIS IS NORTH OF THE U.S. ISLANDS... ...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO... ...NEW INFORMATION... STORM INFORMATION. INLAND FLOODING. WINDS. ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT IS FOR THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO. ...WATCHES/WARNINGS... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 1100 PM AST...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CHRIS WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 64.9 WEST...ABOUT 95 MILES NORTH OF ST THOMAS OR 125 MILES NORTHEAST OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO OR ABOUT 140 MILES NORTH OF ST CROIX. CHRIS WAS MOVING WEST NEAR 8 MPH...WITH THIS GENERAL MOTION EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SHOULD THIS TRACK CONTINUE...THE CENTER OF CHRIS WILL MOVE CLOSER TO PUERTO RICO THAN ANTICIPATED BEFORE AND GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED WITH THE SHOWERS OVERNIGHT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... THE MAIN IMPACT OF TROPICAL STORM CHRIS WILL BE THE POTENTIAL OF HEAVY RAIN FOR A LONGER TIME ALONG WITH STRONGER WIND GUSTS IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE RAIN BANDS ACROSS THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO LATER OVERNIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. ADDITIONALLY...STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS...OCCASIONALLY OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE MAY ACCOMPANY SOME OF THE RAINBANDS OR THUNDERSTORMS. ...WINDS... TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 80 MILES FROM THE CENTER OF CHRIS BUT ONLY TO THE NORTHWEST AND NORTHEAST. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY NEAR RAINBANDS DURING THE PASSING SHOWERS. SUSTAINED WINDS ARE FORECAST TO REACH 15 TO 20 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS OVERNIGHT AS TROPICAL STORM CHRIS CONTINUES TO MOVE WEST OR WEST-SOUTHWEST. BASED ON THE LATEST FORECAST TRACK THE STORM CENTER IS FORECAST TO PASS NORTH OF PUERTO RICO OVERNIGHT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE GUSTS COULD BE EXPERIENCED WITH THE RAIN BANDS OVER ST TOMAS...ST JOHN AND OVERNIGHT. WINDS IN THE VICINITY OF THE RAINBANDS WILL BE HIGHER ESPECIALLY IF CHRIS CONTINUES APPROACHING THE LOCAL AREA. RESIDENTS OF THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS TROPICAL STORM CLOSELY AS ANY INCREASE IN THE INTENSITY OR CLOSER PROXIMITY WILL RESULT IN A GREATER POSSIBILITY FOR TROPICAL STORM WIND GUSTS AND MORE RAINBANDS TRAVELING SOUTH. ...INLAND FLOODING... RAIN BANDS WITH HEAVY RAINS CONTINUE ACROSS THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS OF SAINT JOHN AND SAINT THOMAS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE OUTER FRINGES OF TROPICAL STORM CHRIS WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS...CULEBRA AND VIEQUES...AND OVER THE MOST OF PUERTO RICO. PERIODS OF VERY HEAVY RAIN ARE POSSIBLE AS THE CENTER OF THE STORM APPROACHES THE LOCAL AREA OVERNIGHT AND THURSDAY. THIS COULD CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY BEHIND THE EXITING STORM AS LOW LEVEL WINDS SHIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST. RAINFALL TOTALS OF TWO TO FIVE INCHES ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE INTERIOR SECTION OF PUERTO RICO. SOME RIVERS ACROSS PUERTO RICO COULD EXPERIENCE RISES WITH SOME RIVERS EXCEEDING BANKFULL LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. ...MARINE IMPACTS... WATERSPOUTS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLAND AND EASTERN PUERTO RICO WATERS WITH PASSING RAINBAND SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. SMALL CRAFT SHOULD PLAN TO REMAIN IN PORT THROUGH THURSDAY. SEAS WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE LOCAL ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS DURING TONIGHT...AND WILL EXCEED 12 FEET WITHIN 40 MILES SOUTHWEST OF CHRIS AND WITHIN 90 MILES SOUTHEAST OF CHRIS. ROUGH AND CONFUSED SURF AND STRONG RIP CURRENTS WILL BE SEEN ACROSS THE WATERS OF THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AND THE NORTHERN COASTS OF PUERTO RICO TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...BUT WAVE HEIGHTS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW 10 FEET ON LOCAL COASTLINES. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY 200 AM AST THURSDAY BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE IN SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO. $$ RIVERA ** WTPQ20 BABJ 030400 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TY PRAPIROON 0606 (0606) INITIAL TIME 030400 UTC 00HR 20.7N 112.3E 975HPA 33M/S 30KTS 400KM 50KTS 100KM P12HR WNW 20KM/H= ** WTSS20 VHHH 030445 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT 030300 UTC, TYPHOON PRAPIROON (0606) WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 965 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 30 NAUTICAL MILES OF TWO ZERO POINT FOUR DEGREES NORTH (20.4 N) ONE ONE TWO POINT FOUR DEGREES EAST (112.4 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE WEST-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 7 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 70 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 210 NAUTICAL MILES OVER SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE, 150 NAUTICAL MILES ELSEWHERE. RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 120 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 63 KNOT WINDS 60 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 270 NAUTICAL MILES OVER SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE, 210 NAUTICAL MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 040300 UTC TWO ONE POINT SEVEN DEGREES NORTH (21.7 N) ONE ONE ZERO POINT TWO DEGREES EAST (110.2 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 60 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 050300 UTC TWO TWO POINT ZERO DEGREES NORTH (22.0 N) ONE ZERO EIGHT POINT ONE DEGREES EAST (108.1 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 55 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 060300 UTC TWO ONE POINT EIGHT DEGREES NORTH (21.8 N) ONE ZERO SIX POINT SEVEN DEGREES EAST (106.7 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 35 KNOTS. ** WTSS20 VHHH 030445 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT 030300 UTC, TYPHOON PRAPIROON (0606) WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 965 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 30 NAUTICAL MILES OF TWO ZERO POINT FOUR DEGREES NORTH (20.4 N) ONE ONE TWO POINT FOUR DEGREES EAST (112.4 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE WEST-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 7 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 70 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 210 NAUTICAL MILES OVER SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE, 150 NAUTICAL MILES ELSEWHERE. RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 120 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 63 KNOT WINDS 60 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 270 NAUTICAL MILES OVER SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE, 210 NAUTICAL MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 040300 UTC TWO ONE POINT SEVEN DEGREES NORTH (21.7 N) ONE ONE ZERO POINT TWO DEGREES EAST (110.2 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 60 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 050300 UTC TWO TWO POINT ZERO DEGREES NORTH (22.0 N) ONE ZERO EIGHT POINT ONE DEGREES EAST (108.1 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 55 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 060300 UTC TWO ONE POINT EIGHT DEGREES NORTH (21.8 N) ONE ZERO SIX POINT SEVEN DEGREES EAST (106.7 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 35 KNOTS. ** WTPQ20 BABJ 030500 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TY PRAPIROON 0606 (0606) INITIAL TIME 030500 UTC 00HR 20.8N 112.3E 975HPA 33M/S 30KTS 400KM 50KTS 100KM P12HR WNW 20KM/H= ** WTNT80 EGRR 030518 *** MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 03.08.2006 TROPICAL STORM CHRIS ANALYSED POSITION : 20.1N 65.1W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL032006 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 03.08.2006 20.1N 65.1W MODERATE 12UTC 03.08.2006 20.8N 66.7W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 04.08.2006 21.1N 69.0W WEAK WEAKENING RAPIDLY 12UTC 04.08.2006 21.6N 73.0W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 05.08.2006 21.9N 74.1W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 05.08.2006 22.6N 76.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 06.08.2006 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH TROPICAL DEPRESSION FABIO ANALYSED POSITION : 15.1N 133.0W ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP072006 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 03.08.2006 14.0N 133.0W WEAK 12UTC 03.08.2006 13.9N 136.4W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 04.08.2006 13.9N 138.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 04.08.2006 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH TROPICAL DEPRESSION GILMA ANALYSED POSITION : 15.2N 107.2W ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP082006 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 03.08.2006 15.2N 107.2W WEAK 12UTC 03.08.2006 14.9N 108.8W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 04.08.2006 16.3N 110.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 04.08.2006 17.5N 111.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 05.08.2006 18.6N 112.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 05.08.2006 19.6N 112.5W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 06.08.2006 19.6N 112.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 06.08.2006 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 60 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 60 : 11.5N 30.7W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 05.08.2006 11.5N 30.7W WEAK 00UTC 06.08.2006 12.2N 29.6W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 06.08.2006 11.5N 34.6W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 07.08.2006 12.1N 36.6W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 07.08.2006 13.4N 40.7W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 08.08.2006 13.0N 43.6W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 08.08.2006 14.2N 46.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 09.08.2006 16.3N 49.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 030518 ** WTNT33 KNHC 030551 *** TCPAT3 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM CHRIS INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 10A NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032006 200 AM AST THU AUG 03 2006 ...CHRIS BECOMING DISORGANIZED... A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS...AND FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...INCLUDING THE ACKLINS...CROOKED ISLAND...THE INAGUAS...MAYAGUANA...AND THE RAGGED ISLANDS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. AND BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM THE NORTHERN BORDER WITH HAITI TO CABO ENGANO. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 200 AM AST...0600Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CHRIS WAS ESTIMATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 65.5 WEST OR ABOUT 115 MILES...185 KM...NORTH-NORTHEAST OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO. A RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS CURRENTLY APPROACHING CHRIS. CHRIS APPEARS TO BE MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 11 MPH...18 KM/HR. A GENERAL MOTION TOWARD THE WEST IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF CHRIS WOULD STAY NORTH OF PUERTO RICO. HOWEVER...CHRIS IS EXPECTED TO BRING OCCASIONAL HEAVY RAINS AND GUSTY WINDS TO PUERTO RICO AND U.S. AND BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS TODAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 55 MPH...90 KM/HR... WITH HIGHER GUSTS. IF THE CENTER OF CHRIS CONTINUES TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...GRADUAL WEAKENING IS ANTICIPATED. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 80 MILES...130 KM...MAINLY TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007 MB...29.74 INCHES. CHRIS IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES OVER THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS...THE U.S. AND BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO...AND THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 8 INCHES OVER HIGHER TERRAIN THROUGH THURSDAY. REPEATING THE 200 AM AST POSITION...20.0 N...65.5 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST NEAR 11 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...55 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 500 AM AST. $$ FORECASTER AVILA