** WTNT33 KNHC 021802 *** TCPAT3 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM CHRIS INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 8A NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032006 200 PM AST WED AUG 02 2006 ...AIR FORCE PLANE FINDS THAT CHRIS HAS NOT STRENGTHENED YET... A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS...AND FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...INCLUDING THE ACKLINS...CROOKED ISLAND...THE INAGUAS...MAYAGUANA...AND THE RAGGED ISLANDS. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. AT 2 PM AST...1800 UTC...THE METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE OF ANTIGUA HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR ANGUILLA. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. AND BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 200 PM AST...1800Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CHRIS WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 64.0 WEST OR ABOUT 100 MILES...165 KM...NORTHEAST OF ST. THOMAS. CHRIS IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/HR... AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF CHRIS WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HOWEVER...SOME OF THE STRONG RAIN BANDS ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF CHRIS MAY AFFECT PUERTO RICO AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS LATER TONIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 65 MPH...100 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. CHRIS COULD BECOME A HURRICANE DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 75 MILES...120 KM FROM THE CENTER. AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE RECENTLY REPORTED A MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 1007 MB...29.74 INCHES. CHRIS IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES OVER THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS...THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS ...AND PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 8 INCHES POSSIBLE OVER HIGHER TERRAIN THROUGH THURSDAY. REPEATING THE 200 PM AST POSITION...19.5 N...64.0 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 500 PM AST. $$ FORECASTER PASCH ** WTCA43 TJSJ 021814 CCA *** TCPSP3 BOLETIN TORMENTA TROPICAL CHRIS ADVERTENCIA INTERMEDIA NUMERO 8A NWS TCP/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL AL032006 200 PM AST MIERCOLES 2 DE AGOSTO DE 2006 ...UN AVION DE RECONOCIMIENTO DE LA FUERZA AEREA HALLO QUE CHRIS AUN NO SE HA INTENSIFICADO... ESTA EN EFECTO UNA VIGILANCIA DE HURACAN PARA LAS ISLAS TURKS Y CAICOS...Y PARA EL SURESTE DE LAS BAHAMAS...INCLUYENDO ACKLINS...CROOKED ISLAND...INAGUAS...MAYAGUANA Y RAGGED ISLANDS. UNA VIGILANCIA DE HURACAN SIGNIFICA QUE LAS CONDICIONES DE HURACAN SON POSIBLES DENTRO DEL AREA BAJO VIGILANCIA...GENERALMENTE DENTRO DE LAS PROXIMAS 36 HORAS. A LAS 2 PM...1800 UTC...EL SERVICIO METEOROLOGICO DE ANTIGUA HA DESCONTINUADO EL AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL PARA ANGUILA. PERMANECE EN EFECTO UN AVISO PARA PUERTO RICO Y LAS ISLAS VIRGENES BRITANICAS. UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SIGNIFICA QUE SE ESPERAN CONDICIONES DE TORMENTA TROPICAL DENTRO DEL AREA BAJO AVISO DENTRO DE LAS PROXIMAS 12 A 24 HORAS. PARA INFORMACION ESPECIFICA PARA SU AREA...INCLUYENDO POSIBLES VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS PARA AREAS TERRESTRES...FAVOR DE REFERIRSE A LOS PRODUCTOS EMITIDOS POR SU OFICINA METEOROLOGICA LOCAL. A LAS 2 PM AST...1800Z...EL CENTRO DE LA TORMENTA TROPICAL CHRIS ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 19.5 NORTE...LONGITUD 64.0 OESTE O COMO A 110 MILLAS...165 KM...AL NORESTE DE SAN THOMAS. CHRIS SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL OESTE NOROESTE A CERCA DE 10 MPH...17 KILOMETROS POR HORA...Y SE PRONOSTICA QUE ESTE MOVIMIENTO GENERAL CONTINUARA DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. EN ESTA TRAYECTORIA...EL CENTRO DE LA TORMENTA CHRIS PERMANECERA AL NORTE DE LAS ISLAS VIRGENES Y PUERTO RICO ESTA TARDE Y AL ANOCHECER. SIN EMBARGO...ALGUNAS DE LAS FUERTES BANDAS DE LLUVIA DEL LADO SUR DE CHRIS PODRIAN AFECTAR PUERTO RICO Y LAS ISLAS VIRGENES MAS TARDE ESTA NOCHE Y TEMPRANO EN EL JUEVES. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS ESTAN EN CERCA DE 65 MPH...100 KM/HR...CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. CHRIS PODRIA CONVERTIRSE EN HURACAN DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 12 A 24 HORAS. LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SE EXTIENDEN HACIA AFUERA HASTA 75 MILLAS...120 KILOMETROS FUERA DEL CENTRO. LA PRESION MINIMA CENTRAL SE ESTIMA EN 1007 MILIBARAS...29.74 PULGADAS. SE ESPERA QUE CHRIS PRODUZCA TOTALES DE LLUVIA DE 2 A 4 PULGADAS SOBRE LAS ISLAS DE SOTAVENTO NORTE...LAS ISLAS VIRGENES AMERICANAS Y PORCIONES DE PUERTO RICO...CON CANTIDADES AISLADAS MAXIMAS DE 8 PULGADAS POSIBLES SOBRE TERRENO MAS ALTO HASTA EL JUEVES. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 2 PM AST...19.5 NORTE...64.0 OESTE. SE MUEVE AL OESTE NOROESTE A CERCA DE 10 MPH. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS...65 MPH. LA PRESION MINIMA CENTRAL...1007 MILIBARAS. LA PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 5 PM. $$ PRONOTICADOR PASCH ** WTPQ20 BABJ 021800 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TY PRAPIROON 0606 (0606) INITIAL TIME 021800 UTC 00HR 19.2N 113.2E 970HPA 35M/S 30KTS 400KM 50KTS 120KM P12HR WNW 15KM/H= ** WTJP31 RJTD 021500 *** WARNING 021500. WARNING VALID 031500. TYPHOON WARNING. TYPHOON 0606 PRAPIROON (0606) 965 HPA AT 19.2N 113.3E SOUTH CHINA SEA MOVING WEST 08 KNOTS. POSITION FAIR. MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 50 MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 200 MILES. FORECAST POSITION FOR 031500UTC AT 20.2N 110.3E WITH 80 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 960 HPA, MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 021500 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TY 0606 PRAPIROON (0606) ANALYSIS PSTN 021500UTC 19.2N 113.3E FAIR MOVE W 08KT PRES 965HPA MXWD 065KT 50KT 50NM 30KT 200NM FORECAST 24HF 031500UTC 20.2N 110.3E 80NM 70% MOVE W 07KT PRES 960HPA MXWD 075KT 45HF 041200UTC 21.4N 108.6E 150NM 70% MOVE WNW SLOWLY PRES 980HPA MXWD 055KT 69HF 051200UTC 22.1N 107.1E 220NM 70% MOVE WNW SLOWLY PRES 992HPA MXWD 040KT = ** WTPQ20 BABJ 021800 CCA *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TY PRAPIROON 0606 (0606) INITIAL TIME 021800 UTC 00HR 19.2N 113.2E 970HPA 35M/S 30KTS 400KM 50KTS 120KM P12HR WNW 15KM/H P+24HR 21.1N 110.3E 960HPA 40M/S P+48HR 22.6N 108.7E 985HPA 25M/S P+72HR 23.2N 106.6E 995HPA 15M/S= ** WTJP21 RJTD 021800 *** WARNING 021800. WARNING VALID 031800. WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS. TYPHOON WARNING. TYPHOON 0606 PRAPIROON (0606) 965 HPA AT 19.3N 113.2E SOUTH CHINA SEA MOVING WEST SLOWLY. POSITION FAIR. MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 60 MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 200 MILES. FORECAST POSITION FOR 031800UTC AT 20.3N 110.8E WITH 80 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 960 HPA, MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. FORECAST POSITION FOR 041800UTC AT 21.4N 108.8E WITH 150 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 980 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. FORECAST POSITION FOR 051800UTC AT 22.3N 107.0E WITH 220 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 992 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 021800 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TY 0606 PRAPIROON (0606) ANALYSIS PSTN 021800UTC 19.3N 113.2E FAIR MOVE W SLOWLY PRES 965HPA MXWD 070KT 50KT 60NM 30KT 200NM FORECAST 24HF 031800UTC 20.3N 110.8E 80NM 70% MOVE WNW 06KT PRES 960HPA MXWD 075KT 48HF 041800UTC 21.4N 108.8E 150NM 70% MOVE WNW SLOWLY PRES 980HPA MXWD 055KT 72HF 051800UTC 22.3N 107.0E 220NM 70% MOVE WNW SLOWLY PRES 992HPA MXWD 040KT = ** WTPN31 PHNC 021600 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// REF/A/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN/PEARL HARBOR HI/021535AUG2006// AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL STORM 07E (FABIO) WARNING NR 008 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 021200Z --- NEAR 14.8N 130.5W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 280 DEGREES AT 13 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 14.8N 130.5W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 030000Z --- 15.0N 133.3W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 14 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 031200Z --- 15.3N 136.1W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 02 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 040000Z --- 15.6N 136.1W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 26 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 041200Z --- 16.0N 141.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 13 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 051200Z --- 16.0N 147.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 12 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 061200Z --- 16.0N 152.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 11 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 071200Z --- 16.0N 156.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT --- REMARKS: 021600Z POSITION NEAR 14.9N 131.4W. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 021200Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 022200Z, 030400Z, 031000Z AND 031600Z. REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 08E (GILMA) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PHNC) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.// ** WTPQ20 BABJ 021800 CCB *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TY PRAPIROON 0606 (0606) INITIAL TIME 021800 UTC 00HR 19.2N 113.2E 970HPA 35M/S 30KTS 400KM 50KTS 120KM P12HR WNW 15KM/H P+24HR 21.1N 110.3E 960HPA 40M/S P+48HR 22.6N 108.7E 985HPA 25M/S P+72HR 23.2N 106.6E 995HPA 15M/S= ** WTPN32 PHNC 021600 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// REF/A/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN/PEARL HARBOR HI/021530AUG2006// AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 08E (GILMA) WARNING NR 007 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 021200Z --- NEAR 14.9N 106.5W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 300 DEGREES AT 04 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT REPEAT POSIT: 14.9N 106.5W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 030000Z --- 15.2N 107.3W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 031200Z --- 15.7N 108.7W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 040000Z --- 16.3N 110.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 08 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 041200Z --- 17.2N 111.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 051200Z --- 18.2N 113.7W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 08 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 061200Z --- 19.5N 117.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 071200Z --- 20.5N 119.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT --- REMARKS: 021600Z POSITION NEAR 15.0N 106.8W. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 021200Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 022200Z, 030400Z, 031000Z AND 031600Z. REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 07E (FABIO) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PHNC) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.// ** WTKO20 RKSL 021800 *** KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 4 NAME TY 0606 PRAPIROON ANALYSIS POSITION 021800UTC 19.3N 113.2E MOVEMENT W 5KT PRES/VMAX 965HPA 68KT FORECAST 24HR POSITION 031800UTC 20.4N 110.9E WITHIN 80NM PRES/VMAX 965HPA 68KT 48HR POSITION 041800UTC 21.4N 108.8E WITHIN 135NM PRES/VMAX 980HPA 56KT 72HR POSITION 051800UTC 22.1N 107.0E WITHIN 190NM PRES/VMAX 990HPA 41KT KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION. ** WTPQ20 BABJ 021800 CCC *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TY PRAPIROON 0606 (0606) INITIAL TIME 021800 UTC 00HR 19.3N 113.2E 970HPA 35M/S 30KTS 400KM 50KTS 120KM P12HR WNW 15KM/H P+24HR 21.1N 110.3E 960HPA 40M/S P+48HR 22.6N 108.7E 985HPA 25M/S P+72HR 23.2N 106.6E 995HPA 15M/S= ** WTCA82 TJSJ 021924 *** HLSSJU PRZ001>013-VIZ001-002-AMZ710>750-022200- BULLETIN- TROPICAL STORM CHRIS LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR 315 PM AST WED AUG 2 2006 ...TROPICAL STORM CHRIS NORTHEAST OF THE VIRGIN ISLANDS ISLANDS... ...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO... ...NEW INFORMATION... STORM INFORMATION. ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT IS FOR THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO. ...WATCHES/WARNINGS... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 200 PM AST...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CHRIS WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 64.0 WEST...OR ABOUT 100 MILES NORTHEAST OF ST THOMAS...OR ABOUT 130 MILES NORTHEAST OF ST CROIX OR ABOUT 160 MILES NORTHEAST OF SAN JUAN. CHRIS WAS MOVING WEST NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH...WITH THIS GENERAL MOTION EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THIS TRACK... THE CENTER OF CHRIS WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO DURING THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 65 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. CHRIS COULD BECOME A HURRICANE DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... THE MAIN IMPACT OF TROPICAL STORM CHRIS WILL BE THE POTENTIAL OF HEAVY RAIN IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE STRONG BANDS ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE STORM WHICH COULD AFFECT THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO LATER TONIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. ADDITIONALLY...STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS...OCCASIONALLY OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE MAY ACCOMPANY SOME OF THE RAINBANDS. ...WINDS... TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 75 MILES FROM THE CENTER OF CHRIS BUT MAINLY TO THE NORTHEAST. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME GUSTY IN THE NORTHERN U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS IN PASSING SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE RAIN BANDS. SUSTAINED WINDS ARE FORECAST TO REACH 15 TO 20 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS MAINLY THIS EVENING AS TROPICAL STORM CHRIS CONTINUES TO MOVE WEST NORTHWEST ALONG ITS FORECAST TRACK. BASED ON THE LATEST FORECAST TRACK THE STORM CENTER IS FORECAST TO PASS NORTH OF ST JOHN AND ST THOMAS EARLY TONIGHT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE GUSTS COULD BE EXPERIENCED WITH THE RAIN BANDS JUST NORTHEAST OF THE BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS THAT ARE TRAVELING SOUTHWEST TOWARDS ST THOMAS AND ST JOHN. WINDS WILL CHANGE TO THE SOUTH SOUTHEAST ONCE THE STORM MOVES NORTHWEST OF THE VIRGIN ISLANDS LATE IN THE EVENING. WINDS OVER PUERTO RICO ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 MPH LATER THIS EVENING WITH HIGHER GUSTS. CURRENTLY SUSTAINED TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN OFFSHORE ACROSS THE ANEGADA PASSAGE AND THE OFF SHORE ATLANTIC WATERS...BUT RESIDENTS OF THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO SHOULD MONITOR THIS CLOSELY AS ANY INCREASE IN THE INTENSITY THIS EVENING OR A MORE WESTWARD TRACK MEANS A GRATER POSSIBILITY FOR TROPICAL STORM WIND GUSTS AND MORE RAINBANDS TRAVELING SOUTH. ...INLAND FLOODING... RAIN BANDS WITH HEAVY RAINS CONTINUE TO APPROACH THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE OUTER FRINGES OF TROPICAL STORM CHRIS WILL INCREASE LATER TODAY AND THIS EVENING ACROSS THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS...CULEBRA AND VIEQUES...AND OVER THE EASTERN SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO. BRIEF PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN ARE THEN LIKELY AS THE CENTER OF THE STORM PASSES TO THE NORTH OF THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO. TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. THIS COULD CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY BEHIND THE EXITING STORM AS LOW LEVEL WINDS SHIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST. RAINFALL TOTALS OF TWO TO FOUR INCHES ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE INTERIOR SECTION OF PUERTO RICO. SOME RIVERS ACROSS PUERTO RICO COULD EXPERIENCE RISES WITH SOME RIVERS EXCEEDING BANKFULL LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. ...MARINE IMPACTS... WATERSPOUTS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLAND AND EASTERN PUERTO RICO WATERS WITH PASSING RAINBAND SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. THE SMALL CRAFT SHOULD PLAN TO REMAIN IN PORT THROUGH THURSDAY. SEAS WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE LOCAL ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS AND THROUGH THE ANEGADA PASSAGE DURING THE REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY...AND WILL LIKELY REACH 10 TO 15 FEET WITHIN 50 MILES OF THE CENTER OF CHRIS. ROUGH AND CONFUSED SURF AND STRONG RIP CURRENTS WILL BE SEEN ACROSS THE WATERS OF THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AND THE NORTHERN COASTS OF PUERTO RICO TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY 600 PM AST BY YOUR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE IN SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO. $$ RM ** WTPQ20 BABJ 021900 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TY PRAPIROON 0606 (0606) INITIAL TIME 021900 UTC 00HR 19.4N 113.2E 970HPA 35M/S 30KTS 400KM 50KTS 120KM P12HR WNW 15KM/H= ** WTPQ20 BABJ 021600 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TY PRAPIROON 0606 (0606) INITIAL TIME 021600 UTC 00HR 19.2N 113.2E 970HPA 35M/S 30KTS 400KM 50KTS 120KM P12HR WNW 15KM/H= ** WTSS20 VHHH 021945 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT 021800 UTC, TYPHOON PRAPIROON (0606) WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 970 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 30 NAUTICAL MILES OF ONE NINE POINT THREE DEGREES NORTH (19.3 N) ONE ONE THREE POINT ONE DEGREES EAST (113.1 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE WEST-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 7 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 65 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 210 NAUTICAL MILES OVER SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE, 180 NAUTICAL MILES ELSEWHERE. RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 90 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 63 KNOT WINDS 30 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 270 NAUTICAL MILES OVER SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE, 210 NAUTICAL MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 031800 UTC TWO ZERO POINT TWO DEGREES NORTH (20.2 N) ONE ONE ZERO POINT THREE DEGREES EAST (110.3 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 70 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 041800 UTC TWO ONE POINT FIVE DEGREES NORTH (21.5 N) ONE ZERO EIGHT POINT SIX DEGREES EAST (108.6 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 65 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 051800 UTC TWO TWO POINT EIGHT DEGREES NORTH (22.8 N) ONE ZERO SEVEN POINT FIVE DEGREES EAST (107.5 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 60 KNOTS. ** WTSS20 VHHH 021945 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT 021800 UTC, TYPHOON PRAPIROON (0606) WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 970 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 30 NAUTICAL MILES OF ONE NINE POINT THREE DEGREES NORTH (19.3 N) ONE ONE THREE POINT ONE DEGREES EAST (113.1 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE WEST-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 7 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 65 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 210 NAUTICAL MILES OVER SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE, 180 NAUTICAL MILES ELSEWHERE. RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 90 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 63 KNOT WINDS 30 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 270 NAUTICAL MILES OVER SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE, 210 NAUTICAL MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 031800 UTC TWO ZERO POINT TWO DEGREES NORTH (20.2 N) ONE ONE ZERO POINT THREE DEGREES EAST (110.3 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 70 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 041800 UTC TWO ONE POINT FIVE DEGREES NORTH (21.5 N) ONE ZERO EIGHT POINT SIX DEGREES EAST (108.6 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 65 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 051800 UTC TWO TWO POINT EIGHT DEGREES NORTH (22.8 N) ONE ZERO SEVEN POINT FIVE DEGREES EAST (107.5 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 60 KNOTS. ** WTPQ20 BABJ 022000 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TY PRAPIROON 0606 (0606) INITIAL TIME 022000 UTC 00HR 19.5N 113.2E 975HPA 33M/S 30KTS 400KM 50KTS 100KM P12HR NW 10KM/H= ** WTIN20 DEMS 021700 *** TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK ------------------------ DEMS -RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONES NEW DELHI 02-08-2006(.) TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NORTH INDIAN OCEAN (THE BAY OF BENGAL AND THE ARABIAN SEA ) VALID FOR NEXT 24 HOURS ISSUED AT 1700 UTC (.) SUB:DEEP DEPRESSION OVER BAY OF BENGAL MORNING'S DEPRESSION OVER NORTHWEST BAY OF BENGAL HAS INTENSIFIED INTO A DEEP DEPRESSION AND LAY CENTRED AT 1200 UTC OF TODAY,THE 2ND AUGUST 2006 NEAR LAT.20.0 DEG.N AND LONG.86.5 DEG.E,CLOSE TO PARADIP. THE SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO MOVE IN A WEST-NORTHWESTERLY DIRECTION AND CROSS ORISSA COAST SOUTH OF PARADIP BY TONIGHT. BROKEN INTENSE TO VERY INTENSE CONVECTIVE CLOUDS ARE SEEN OVER NORTHWEST AND ADJOINING WEST CENTRAL BAY OF BENGAL IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS SYSTEM. MSG OVER ????/ ** WTNT33 KNHC 022029 *** TCPAT3 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM CHRIS ADVISORY NUMBER 9 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032006 500 PM AST WED AUG 02 2006 ...CHRIS SLIGHTLY WEAKER... A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS...AND FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...INCLUDING THE ACKLINS...CROOKED ISLAND...THE INAGUAS...MAYAGUANA...AND THE RAGGED ISLANDS. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. AND BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 500 PM AST...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CHRIS WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 64.3 WEST OR ABOUT 115 MILES...180 KM...NORTH-NORTHEAST OF ST. THOMAS. CHRIS IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/HR... AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF CHRIS WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO. HOWEVER...SOME OF THE STRONG RAIN BANDS ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF CHRIS MAY CONTINUE TO AFFECT PUERTO RICO AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS LATER TONIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NOW NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 80 MILES...130 KM...MAINLY TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER. THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY THE AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE IS 1005 MB...29.68 INCHES. CHRIS IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES OVER THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS...THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS ...AND PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 8 INCHES OVER HIGHER TERRAIN THROUGH THURSDAY. REPEATING THE 500 PM AST POSITION...19.9 N...64.3 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB. AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 800 PM AST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1100 PM AST. $$ FORECASTER PASCH ** WTNT23 KNHC 022030 *** TCMAT3 TROPICAL STORM CHRIS FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 9 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032006 2100 UTC WED AUG 02 2006 A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS...AND FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...INCLUDING THE ACKLINS...CROOKED ISLAND...THE INAGUAS...MAYAGUANA...AND THE RAGGED ISLANDS. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. AND BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.9N 64.3W AT 02/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. 50 KT....... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT....... 70NE 70SE 0SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 90SE 40SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.9N 64.3W AT 02/2100Z AT 02/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.6N 63.9W FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 20.4N 65.6W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 25NE 25SE 10SW 15NW. 34 KT... 70NE 70SE 30SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 21.0N 67.4W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 25NW. 34 KT... 80NE 70SE 50SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 21.3N 69.2W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 15SE 0SW 15NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 70SE 50SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 21.7N 71.4W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 80SE 60SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 22.5N 75.5W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 80SE 60SW 70NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 06/1800Z 23.5N 80.0W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 07/1800Z 24.5N 84.5W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.9N 64.3W NEXT ADVISORY AT 03/0300Z $$ FORECASTER PASCH ** WTPZ22 KNHC 022032 *** TCMEP2 TROPICAL STORM FABIO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 9 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072006 2100 UTC WED AUG 02 2006 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.1N 132.6W AT 02/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 14 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 60NE 20SE 20SW 60NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 50NE 30SE 30SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.1N 132.6W AT 02/2100Z AT 02/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.0N 131.9W FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 15.3N 134.8W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 15.6N 137.6W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 15.7N 140.4W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 15.7N 143.2W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 15.7N 148.4W...REMNANT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 06/1800Z 15.7N 153.5W...REMNANT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 07/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.1N 132.6W NEXT ADVISORY AT 03/0300Z $$ FORECASTER RHOME/BEVEN ** WTPZ42 KNHC 022032 *** TCDEP2 TROPICAL STORM FABIO DISCUSSION NUMBER 9 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072006 200 PM PDT WED AUG 02 2006 THE EARLIER BURST OF DEEP CONVECTION TO THE WEST OF THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION IS CURRENTLY WEAKENING AND BECOMING INCREASINGLY DISPLACED FROM FROM THE CENTER. IT WOULD APPEAR THAT VERTICAL SHEAR...DRY AIR IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVELS...AND INCREASINGLY STABLE AIR HAVE DONE THEIR DAMAGE AND THE CYCLONE IS NOW EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY SPIN DOWN. STILL...WITH THE CYCLONE REMAINING OVER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES OF 26C OR GREATER FOR THE NEXT 36 HOURS...NEW BURSTS CANNOT BE RULED OUT. ACCORDINGLY...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST MAINTAINS A DEPRESSION THROUGH 48 HOURS. IF NEW BURSTS OF CONVECTION DO NOT OCCUR...THIS FORECAST COULD BE GENEROUS AND THE SYSTEM MAY DISSIPATE SOONER THAN SHOWN HERE. IN FACT... MOST OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS AND THE FSU SUPER ENSEMBLE SHOW JUST THAT. FABIO IS MOVING RIGHT ALONG THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS ESSENTIALLY UNCHANGED AT 275/14. UNDER THE ASSUMPTION THAT THE CYCLONE WILL BE ABLE TO MAINTAIN SOME VERTICAL DEPTH FOR A LITTLE LONGER...THE FORECAST SHOWS SOME NORTHWARD PROGRESS THROUGH 36 HOURS...ALBEIT NOT AS MUCH AS THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. THEREAFTER...THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO BE SHALLOW AND STEERED PRIMARILY BY THE LOW LEVEL EASTERLIES. SOME OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS SHOW A MOTION SOUTH OF DUE WEST BUT THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SIMPLY TURNS THE CYCLONE WESTWARD FOR THE TIME BEING. ONLY MINOR CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE PREVIOUS TRACK. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 02/2100Z 15.1N 132.6W 35 KT 12HR VT 03/0600Z 15.3N 134.8W 35 KT 24HR VT 03/1800Z 15.6N 137.6W 30 KT 36HR VT 04/0600Z 15.7N 140.4W 30 KT 48HR VT 04/1800Z 15.7N 143.2W 30 KT 72HR VT 05/1800Z 15.7N 148.4W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW 96HR VT 06/1800Z 15.7N 153.5W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW 120HR VT 07/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER RHOME/BEVEN ** WTPZ43 KNHC 022032 *** TCDEP3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION GILMA DISCUSSION NUMBER 8 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082006 200 PM PDT WED AUG 02 2006 SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT A BURST OF CONVECTION FORMED OVER THE CENTER OF GILMA DURING THE DAY...WHICH WAS ENOUGH TO BRING THE SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB UP TO 35 KT AT 18Z. SINCE THAT TIME...THE CONVECTION HAS BECOME RATHER DISORGANIZED AS THE BURST HAS WEAKENED. BASED ON THIS...THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL REMAIN 30 KT...AND GILMA WILL REMAIN A TROPICAL DEPRESSION. THE INITIAL MOTION IS 290/5. GILMA IS CURRENTLY EMBEDDED IN AN AREA OF WEAK STEERING FLOW SOUTHEAST OF A MID/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH LOCATED WEST OF THE UNITED STATES WEST COAST AND A MID-LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER CENTRAL MEXICO. THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS FORECAST THE TROUGH TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN WITH THE RIDGE BUILDING WESTWARD INTO THE PACIFIC. THIS EVOLUTION SHOULD ALLOW GILMA TO CONTINUE A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO NORTHWESTWARD MOTION WITH POSSIBLY SOME INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. WHILE THE TRACK GUIDANCE GENERALLY AGREES WITH THIS SCENARIO...THE GFS CALLS FOR A MORE WESTWARD INITIAL MOTION THAT LOOKS SUSPECT...WHILE THE UKMET CONTINUES TO FORECAST A NORTHWESTWARD MOTION. THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS SHIFTED A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK. IT IS CLOSE TO THE CONU CONSENSUS MODEL FOR THE FIRST 72 HR AND THEN FOLLOWS THE CONSENSUS OF THE BAM MODELS THEREAFTER. ANALYSES FROM CIMMS AT THE UNIVERSITY OF WISCONSIN SHOW THAT GILMA IS ENCOUNTERING 20 KT OF EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. LARGE-SCALE MODELS FORECAST THIS SHOULD CONTINUE FOR ABOUT 48 HR BEFORE DECREASING. BY THAT TIME...GILMA SHOULD BE OVER GRADUALLY COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. THUS...THE INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH...ALTHOUGH IT CANNOT BE RULED OUT THAT A CONVECTIVE BURST COULD CAUSE GILMA TO REGAIN TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH. THE CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN OVER COOLER WATER AFTER 72 HR. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 02/2100Z 15.0N 107.2W 30 KT 12HR VT 03/0600Z 15.4N 108.1W 30 KT 24HR VT 03/1800Z 16.0N 109.5W 30 KT 36HR VT 04/0600Z 16.9N 110.7W 30 KT 48HR VT 04/1800Z 17.6N 112.0W 30 KT 72HR VT 05/1800Z 19.0N 114.5W 30 KT 96HR VT 06/1800Z 20.0N 117.5W 25 KT 120HR VT 07/1800Z 21.1N 120.5W 25 KT...DISSIPATING $$ FORECASTER BEVEN ** WTPZ23 KNHC 022033 *** TCMEP3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION GILMA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 8 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082006 2100 UTC WED AUG 02 2006 TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.0N 107.2W AT 02/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 5 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.0N 107.2W AT 02/2100Z AT 02/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.9N 106.9W FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 15.4N 108.1W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 16.0N 109.5W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 16.9N 110.7W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 17.6N 112.0W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 19.0N 114.5W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 06/1800Z 20.0N 117.5W MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 07/1800Z 21.1N 120.5W...DISSIPATING MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.0N 107.2W NEXT ADVISORY AT 03/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN ** WTNT43 KNHC 022038 *** TCDAT3 TROPICAL STORM CHRIS DISCUSSION NUMBER 9 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032006 500 PM EDT WED AUG 02 2006 REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT CHRIS HAS WEAKENED A LITTLE. MAXIMUM 850 MB FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS WERE 55 KT AND A DROPSONDE SHOWED A VERY SHALLOW LAYER OF 55 KT WINDS JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE. CURRENT INTENSITY IS SET AT 50 KT. THE VERY SMALL INNER CORE...I.E. RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS OF ORDER 10 N MI...THAT WAS OBSERVED YESTERDAY HAS DISAPPEARED. FLIGHT-LEVEL DATA NOW SHOW THAT THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE 30 TO 40 N MI FROM THE CENTER. ALSO THE PRESENTATION FROM THE SAN JUAN WSR-88D DOPPLER SUGGESTS A LESS-ORGANIZED TROPICAL CYCLONE THAN EARLY THIS MORNING...AND ANIMATION OF VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS ARC CLOUDS EMANATING NORTHWESTWARD FROM THE STORM. ALL OF THE ABOVE SUGGEST THAT LITTLE INCREASE IN STRENGTH IS LIKELY IN THE SHORT TERM. HOWEVER...THE WIND MAXIMUM COULD CONTRACT AND INTENSIFICATION RESUME. NORTH-NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR CONTINUES TO AFFECT THE STORM AND...BASED ON THE RECON FIX...WHICH IS NEAR THE 5000 FT LEVEL...AND THE RADAR FIXES...WHICH ARE NEAR THE 25000 FT LEVEL...THE VORTEX IS TILTED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD WITH HEIGHT. THE GFS CONTINUES TO FORECAST UPPER-LEVEL WINDS FAIRLY CONDUCIVE FOR THE INTENSIFICATION OF CHRIS...WITH THE STORM LOCATED BETWEEN TWO UPPER-LEVEL LOWS DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. HOWEVER OTHER GLOBAL MODELS....SUCH AS THE U.K. MET... SUGGEST THAT THE UPPER WINDS MAY NOT BE SO CONDUCIVE. THE LATTER GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT CHRIS COULD ENCOUNTER A SHARP EAST-WEST ORIENTED UPPER-TROPOSPHERIC SHEAR AXIS NEAR THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS IN AROUND 48 HOURS. THE CURRENT OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST DELAYS THE STRENGTHENING TO A HURRICANE IN COMPARISON TO THE PAST FEW ADVISORIES...AND IS STILL A LITTLE ABOVE THE SHIPS AND FSU SUPERENSEMBLE GUIDANCE. INITIAL MOTION IS ROUGHLY THE SAME AS BEFORE AND IS ESTIMATED TO BE 300/9. BASED ON THE LARGE-SCALE DYNAMICAL MODELS...A MID/UPPER-LEVEL INVERTED TROUGH OVER THE BAHAMAS IS PREDICTED TO MOVE WESTWARD...AND THE DEEP-LAYER HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH OF CHRIS IS LIKELY TO STRENGTHEN. CONSISTENT WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING TO NORTH OF THE CYCLONE...THE MODEL CONSENSUS CALLS FOR A MORE WESTWARD MOTION TO DEVELOP OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THE GFDL AND FSU SUPERENSEMBLE ARE THE SOUTHERNMOST OF THE TRACK MODELS AND THE U.K. MET. IS THE NORTHERNMOST...HOWEVER THE LATTER MODEL LOSES THE CIRCULATION AFTER 72 HOURS. THE TRACK FORECAST FOR THIS ADVISORY IS SLIGHTLY TO THE SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS ONE BY DAYS 4-5. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 02/2100Z 19.9N 64.3W 50 KT 12HR VT 03/0600Z 20.4N 65.6W 55 KT 24HR VT 03/1800Z 21.0N 67.4W 60 KT 36HR VT 04/0600Z 21.3N 69.2W 65 KT 48HR VT 04/1800Z 21.7N 71.4W 65 KT 72HR VT 05/1800Z 22.5N 75.5W 70 KT 96HR VT 06/1800Z 23.5N 80.0W 70 KT 120HR VT 07/1800Z 24.5N 84.5W 70 KT $$ FORECASTER PASCH ** WTNT83 KNHC 022041 *** TCVAT3 CHRIS WATCH/WARNING BREAKPOINTS/ADVISORY NUMBER 9 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032006 500 PM AST WED AUG 2 2006 .TROPICAL STORM CHRIS PRC001-003-005-007-009-011-013-015-017-019-021-023-025-027-029- 031-033-035-037-039-041-043-045-047-049-051-053-054-055-057-059- 061-063-065-067-069-071-073-075-077-079-081-083-085-087-089-091- 093-095-097-099-101-103-105-107-109-111-113-115-117-119-121-123- 125-127-129-131-133-135-137-139-141-143-145-147-149-151-153- VIC010-020-030-030300- /E.CON.KNHC.TR.W.1003.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ 500 PM AST WED AUG 2 2006 PUERTO-RICO-ALL 18.20N 66.45W VIRGIN-IS.-(U.S.) 18.05N 64.80W $$ ATTN...WFO...SJU... ** WTCA43 TJSJ 022049 *** TCPSP3 BOLETIN TORMENTA TROPICAL CHRIS ADVERTENCIA NUMERO 9 NWS TCP/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL AL032006 500 PM AST MIERCOLES 2 DE AGOSTO DE 2006 ...CHRIS LIGERAMENTE MAS DEBIL... ESTA EN EFECTO UNA VIGILANCIA DE HURACAN PARA LAS ISLAS TURKS Y CAICOS...Y PARA EL SURESTE DE LAS BAHAMAS...INCLUYENDO ACKLINS... CROOKED ISLAND...INAGUAS...MAYAGUANA Y RAGGED ISLANDS. UNA VIGILANCIA DE HURACAN SIGNIFICA QUE LAS CONDICIONES DE HURACAN SON POSIBLES DENTRO DEL AREA BAJO VIGILANCIA...GENERALMENTE DENTRO DE LAS PROXIMAS 36 HORAS. PERMANECE EN EFECTO UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL PARA PUERTO RICO Y LAS ISLAS VIRGENES AMERICANAS Y BRITANICAS. UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SIGNIFICA QUE SE ESPERAN CONDICIONES DE TORMENTA TROPICAL DENTRO DEL AREA BAJO AVISO DENTRO DE LAS PROXIMAS 12 A 24 HORAS. PARA INFORMACION ESPECIFICA PARA SU AREA...INCLUYENDO POSIBLES VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS PARA AREAS TERRESTRES...FAVOR DE REFERIRSE A LOS PRODUCTOS EMITIDOS POR SU OFICINA METEOROLOGICA LOCAL. A LAS 5 PM AST...2100Z...EL CENTRO DE LA TORMENTA TROPICAL CHRIS ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 19.9 NORTE...LONGITUD 64.3 OESTE O COMO A 115 MILLAS...180 KM...AL NORTE-NORESTE DE SAN TOMAS. CHRIS SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL OESTE-NOROESTE A CERCA DE 10 MPH... 17 KILOMETROS POR HORA...Y SE ESPERA QUE ESTE MOVIMIENTO CONTINUE POR LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. EN ESTA TRAYECTORIA...EL CENTRO DE CHRIS PERMANECERA AL NORTE DE LAS ISLAS VIRGENES Y PUERTO RICO. SIN EMBARGO...ALGUNAS DE LAS FUERTES BANDAS DE LLUVIA DEL LADO SUR DE CHRIS PUDIERAN AFECTAR PUERTO RICO Y LAS ISLAS VIRGENES MAS TARDE ESTA NOCHE Y TEMPRANO EL JUEVES EN LA MANANA. REPORTES DESDE UN AVION CAZA HURACANES DE LA UNIDAD DE LA RESERVA DE LA FUERZA AEREA INDICAN QUE LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS AHORA ESTAN EN CERCA DE 60 MPH...95 KM/HR...CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. ES POSIBLE ALGUN FORTALECIMIENTO DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SE EXTIENDEN HACIA AFUERA HASTA 80 MILLAS...130 KILOMETROS...MAYORMENTE AL ESTE DEL CENTRO. LA PRESION MINIMA CENTRAL MAS RECIENTE REPORTADA POR EL AVION CAZA HURACANES DE LA FUERZA AEREA ES DE 1005 MILIBARAS...29.68 PULGADAS. SE ESPERA QUE CHRIS PRODUZCA ACUMULACIONES TOTALES DE LLUVIA DE 2 A 4 PULGADAS SOBRE LAS ISLAS DE SOTAVENTO DEL NORTE...LAS ISLAS VIRGENES AMERICANAS Y PARTES DE PUERTO RICO...CON POSIBLES CANTIDADES AISLADAS MAXIMAS DE 8 PULGADAS POSIBLES SOBRE TERRENO MAS ALTO HASTA EL JUEVES. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 5 PM AST...19.9 NORTE...64.3 OESTE. MOVIMIENTO HACIA...EL OESTE-NOROESTE A CERCA DE 10 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS...60 MPH. PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA...1005 MILIBARAS. UNA ADVERTENCIA INTERMEDIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 8 PM AST SEGUIDA POR LA PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA COMPLETA A LAS 11 PM AST. $$ PRONOSTICADOR PASCH ** WTCA82 TJSJ 022110 *** HLSSJU PRZ001>013-VIZ001-002-AMZ710>750-030100- BULLETIN-IMMEDIATE BRAODCAST REQUESTED TROPICAL STORM CHRIS LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR 510 PM AST WED AUG 2 2006 ...TROPICAL STORM CHRIS IS NORTH OF THE BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS... ...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO... ...NEW INFORMATION... STORM INFORMATION. INLAND FLOODING. WINDS. ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT IS FOR THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO. ...WATCHES/WARNINGS... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 500 PM AST...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CHRIS WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 64.3 WEST...OR ABOUT 81 MILES NORTH OF ANEGADA ISLAND OR 115 MILES NORTH NORTHEAST OF ST THOMAS...OR ABOUT 158 MILES NORTH NORTHEAST OF ST CROIX OR ABOUT 158 MILES NORTHEAST OF SAN JUAN. CHRIS WAS MOVING WEST NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH...WITH THIS GENERAL MOTION EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THIS TRACK... THE CENTER OF CHRIS WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO DURING THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. CHRIS COULD BECOME A HURRICANE DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... THE MAIN IMPACT OF TROPICAL STORM CHRIS WILL BE THE POTENTIAL OF HEAVY RAIN IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE STRONG BANDS ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE STORM WHICH COULD AFFECT THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO LATER TONIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. ADDITIONALLY...STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS...OCCASIONALLY OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE MAY ACCOMPANY SOME OF THE RAINBANDS OR THUNDERSTORMS. ...WINDS... TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 80 MILES FROM THE CENTER OF CHRIS BUT ONLY TO THE NORTHWEST AND NORTHEAST. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY NEAR RAINBANDS DURING THE PASSING SHOWERS. SUSTAINED WINDS ARE FORECAST TO REACH 15 TO 20 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS MAINLY THIS EVENING AS TROPICAL STORM CHRIS CONTINUES TO MOVE WEST NORTHWEST. BASED ON THE LATEST FORECAST TRACK THE STORM CENTER IS FORECAST TO PASS NORTH OF ST JOHN AND ST THOMAS EARLY TONIGHT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE GUSTS COULD BE EXPERIENCED WITH THE RAIN BANDS JUST NORTHEAST OF THE BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS THAT ARE TRAVELING SOUTHWEST TOWARDS ST THOMAS AND ST JOHN. WINDS WILL CHANGE TO THE SOUTH SOUTHEAST ONCE THE STORM MOVES NORTHWEST OF THE VIRGIN ISLANDS LATE IN THE EVENING. WINDS OVER PUERTO RICO WILL GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW 15 MPH EXCEPT IN THE VICINITY OF THE RAINBANDS...WHERE HIGHER GUSTS ARE EXPECTED. CURRENTLY SUSTAINED TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE ACROSS THE ANEGADA PASSAGE AND NORTH OF SAINT THOMAS...SAINT JOHN AND CULEBRA...BUT RESIDENTS OF THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO SHOULD MONITOR THIS CLOSELY AS ANY INCREASE IN THE INTENSITY THIS EVENING OR A SUDDEN TURN TO THE WEST WOULD MEANS A GRATER POSSIBILITY FOR TROPICAL STORM WIND GUSTS AND MORE RAINBANDS TRAVELING SOUTH. ...INLAND FLOODING... RAIN BANDS WITH HEAVY RAINS CONTINUE TO CROSS THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS OF SAINT JOHN AND SAINT THOMAS AND SEVERAL RAIN BANDS HAVE FORMED OVER EASTERN PUERTO RICO AND MOVED EAST INTO THE CARIBBEAN. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE OUTER FRINGES OF TROPICAL STORM CHRIS WILL INCREASE TONIGHT ACROSS THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS...CULEBRA AND VIEQUES...AND OVER THE MOST OF PUERTO RICO. BRIEF PERIODS OF VERY HEAVY RAIN ARE THEN LIKELY AS THE CENTER OF THE STORM PASSES TO THE NORTH OF THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. THIS COULD CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY BEHIND THE EXITING STORM AS LOW LEVEL WINDS SHIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST. RAINFALL TOTALS OF TWO TO FIVE INCHES ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE INTERIOR SECTION OF PUERTO RICO. SOME RIVERS ACROSS PUERTO RICO COULD EXPERIENCE RISES WITH SOME RIVERS EXCEEDING BANKFULL LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. ...MARINE IMPACTS... WATERSPOUTS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLAND AND EASTERN PUERTO RICO WATERS WITH PASSING RAINBAND SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. SMALL CRAFT SHOULD PLAN TO REMAIN IN PORT THROUGH THURSDAY. SEAS WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE LOCAL ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS AND THROUGH THE ANEGADA PASSAGE DURING TONIGHT...AND WILL EXCEED 12 FEET WITHIN 40 MILES SOUTHWEST OF CHRIS AND WITHIN 90 MILES SOUTHEAST OF CHRIS. ROUGH AND CONFUSED SURF AND STRONG RIP CURRENTS WILL BE SEEN ACROSS THE WATERS OF THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AND THE NORTHERN COASTS OF PUERTO RICO TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...BUT WAVE HEIGHTS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW 10 FEET ON LOCAL COASTLINES. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY 900 PM AST BY YOUR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE IN SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO. $$ SNELL ** WTCA82 TJSJ 022110 *** HLSSJU PRZ001>013-VIZ001-002-AMZ710>750-030100- BULLETIN-IMMEDIATE BRAODCAST REQUESTED TROPICAL STORM CHRIS LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR 510 PM AST WED AUG 2 2006 ...TROPICAL STORM CHRIS IS NORTH OF THE BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS... ...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO... ...NEW INFORMATION... STORM INFORMATION. INLAND FLOODING. WINDS. ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT IS FOR THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO. ...WATCHES/WARNINGS... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 500 PM AST...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CHRIS WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 64.3 WEST...OR ABOUT 81 MILES NORTH OF ANEGADA ISLAND OR 115 MILES NORTH NORTHEAST OF ST THOMAS...OR ABOUT 158 MILES NORTH NORTHEAST OF ST CROIX OR ABOUT 158 MILES NORTHEAST OF SAN JUAN. CHRIS WAS MOVING WEST NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH...WITH THIS GENERAL MOTION EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THIS TRACK... THE CENTER OF CHRIS WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO DURING THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. CHRIS COULD BECOME A HURRICANE DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... THE MAIN IMPACT OF TROPICAL STORM CHRIS WILL BE THE POTENTIAL OF HEAVY RAIN IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE STRONG BANDS ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE STORM WHICH COULD AFFECT THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO LATER TONIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. ADDITIONALLY...STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS...OCCASIONALLY OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE MAY ACCOMPANY SOME OF THE RAINBANDS OR THUNDERSTORMS. ...WINDS... TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 80 MILES FROM THE CENTER OF CHRIS BUT ONLY TO THE NORTHWEST AND NORTHEAST. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY NEAR RAINBANDS DURING THE PASSING SHOWERS. SUSTAINED WINDS ARE FORECAST TO REACH 15 TO 20 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS MAINLY THIS EVENING AS TROPICAL STORM CHRIS CONTINUES TO MOVE WEST NORTHWEST. BASED ON THE LATEST FORECAST TRACK THE STORM CENTER IS FORECAST TO PASS NORTH OF ST JOHN AND ST THOMAS EARLY TONIGHT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE GUSTS COULD BE EXPERIENCED WITH THE RAIN BANDS JUST NORTHEAST OF THE BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS THAT ARE TRAVELING SOUTHWEST TOWARDS ST THOMAS AND ST JOHN. WINDS WILL CHANGE TO THE SOUTH SOUTHEAST ONCE THE STORM MOVES NORTHWEST OF THE VIRGIN ISLANDS LATE IN THE EVENING. WINDS OVER PUERTO RICO WILL GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW 15 MPH EXCEPT IN THE VICINITY OF THE RAINBANDS...WHERE HIGHER GUSTS ARE EXPECTED. CURRENTLY SUSTAINED TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE ACROSS THE ANEGADA PASSAGE AND NORTH OF SAINT THOMAS...SAINT JOHN AND CULEBRA...BUT RESIDENTS OF THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO SHOULD MONITOR THIS CLOSELY AS ANY INCREASE IN THE INTENSITY THIS EVENING OR A SUDDEN TURN TO THE WEST WOULD MEANS A GRATER POSSIBILITY FOR TROPICAL STORM WIND GUSTS AND MORE RAINBANDS TRAVELING SOUTH. ...INLAND FLOODING... RAIN BANDS WITH HEAVY RAINS CONTINUE TO CROSS THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS OF SAINT JOHN AND SAINT THOMAS AND SEVERAL RAIN BANDS HAVE FORMED OVER EASTERN PUERTO RICO AND MOVED EAST INTO THE CARIBBEAN. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE OUTER FRINGES OF TROPICAL STORM CHRIS WILL INCREASE TONIGHT ACROSS THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS...CULEBRA AND VIEQUES...AND OVER THE MOST OF PUERTO RICO. BRIEF PERIODS OF VERY HEAVY RAIN ARE THEN LIKELY AS THE CENTER OF THE STORM PASSES TO THE NORTH OF THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. THIS COULD CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY BEHIND THE EXITING STORM AS LOW LEVEL WINDS SHIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST. RAINFALL TOTALS OF TWO TO FIVE INCHES ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE INTERIOR SECTION OF PUERTO RICO. SOME RIVERS ACROSS PUERTO RICO COULD EXPERIENCE RISES WITH SOME RIVERS EXCEEDING BANKFULL LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. ...MARINE IMPACTS... WATERSPOUTS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLAND AND EASTERN PUERTO RICO WATERS WITH PASSING RAINBAND SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. SMALL CRAFT SHOULD PLAN TO REMAIN IN PORT THROUGH THURSDAY. SEAS WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE LOCAL ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS AND THROUGH THE ANEGADA PASSAGE DURING TONIGHT...AND WILL EXCEED 12 FEET WITHIN 40 MILES SOUTHWEST OF CHRIS AND WITHIN 90 MILES SOUTHEAST OF CHRIS. ROUGH AND CONFUSED SURF AND STRONG RIP CURRENTS WILL BE SEEN ACROSS THE WATERS OF THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AND THE NORTHERN COASTS OF PUERTO RICO TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...BUT WAVE HEIGHTS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW 10 FEET ON LOCAL COASTLINES. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY 900 PM AST BY YOUR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE IN SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO. $$ SNELL ** WTPQ20 BABJ 022100 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TY PRAPIROON 0606 (0606) INITIAL TIME 022100 UTC 00HR 19.7N 113.2E 975HPA 33M/S 30KTS 400KM 50KTS 100KM P12HR NNW 15KM/H= ** WTPQ20 BABJ 022100 CCA *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TY PRAPIROON 0606 (0606) INITIAL TIME 022100 UTC 00HR 19.7N 113.2E 975HPA 33M/S 30KTS 400KM 50KTS 100KM P12HR NNW 15KM/H P+24HR 21.5N 110.3E 960HPA 40M/S P+48HR 22.9N 108.6E 985HPA 25M/S P+72HR 23.4N 106.4E 995HPA 15M/S= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 022100 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TY 0606 PRAPIROON (0606) ANALYSIS PSTN 022100UTC 19.5N 113.2E FAIR MOVE WNW SLOWLY PRES 965HPA MXWD 070KT 50KT 60NM 30KT 200NM FORECAST 24HF 032100UTC 20.6N 110.8E 80NM 70% MOVE WNW 06KT PRES 960HPA MXWD 075KT 45HF 041800UTC 21.4N 108.8E 150NM 70% MOVE WNW SLOWLY PRES 980HPA MXWD 055KT 69HF 051800UTC 22.3N 107.0E 220NM 70% MOVE WNW SLOWLY PRES 992HPA MXWD 040KT = ** WTJP31 RJTD 022100 *** WARNING 022100. WARNING VALID 032100. TYPHOON WARNING. TYPHOON 0606 PRAPIROON (0606) 965 HPA AT 19.5N 113.2E SOUTH CHINA SEA MOVING WESTNORTHWEST SLOWLY. POSITION FAIR. MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 60 MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 200 MILES. FORECAST POSITION FOR 032100UTC AT 20.6N 110.8E WITH 80 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 960 HPA, MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ20 BABJ 022200 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TY PRAPIROON 0606 (0606) INITIAL TIME 022200 UTC 00HR 19.9N 113.1E 975HPA 33M/S 30KTS 400KM 50KTS 100KM P12HR NNW 20KM/H= ** WTSS20 VHHH 022245 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT 022100 UTC, TYPHOON PRAPIROON (0606) WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 970 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 30 NAUTICAL MILES OF ONE NINE POINT EIGHT DEGREES NORTH (19.8 N) ONE ONE THREE POINT ZERO DEGREES EAST (113.0 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE WEST-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 7 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 65 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 210 NAUTICAL MILES OVER SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE, 180 NAUTICAL MILES ELSEWHERE. RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 90 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 63 KNOT WINDS 30 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 270 NAUTICAL MILES OVER SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE, 210 NAUTICAL MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 032100 UTC TWO ONE POINT ZERO DEGREES NORTH (21.0 N) ONE ONE ZERO POINT FOUR DEGREES EAST (110.4 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 65 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 042100 UTC TWO TWO POINT ZERO DEGREES NORTH (22.0 N) ONE ZERO EIGHT POINT SIX DEGREES EAST (108.6 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 65 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 052100 UTC TWO ONE POINT EIGHT DEGREES NORTH (21.8 N) ONE ZERO SEVEN POINT ZERO DEGREES EAST (107.0 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 55 KNOTS. ** WTSS20 VHHH 022245 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT 022100 UTC, TYPHOON PRAPIROON (0606) WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 970 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 30 NAUTICAL MILES OF ONE NINE POINT EIGHT DEGREES NORTH (19.8 N) ONE ONE THREE POINT ZERO DEGREES EAST (113.0 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE WEST-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 7 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 65 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 210 NAUTICAL MILES OVER SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE, 180 NAUTICAL MILES ELSEWHERE. RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 90 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 63 KNOT WINDS 30 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 270 NAUTICAL MILES OVER SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE, 210 NAUTICAL MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 032100 UTC TWO ONE POINT ZERO DEGREES NORTH (21.0 N) ONE ONE ZERO POINT FOUR DEGREES EAST (110.4 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 65 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 042100 UTC TWO TWO POINT ZERO DEGREES NORTH (22.0 N) ONE ZERO EIGHT POINT SIX DEGREES EAST (108.6 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 65 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 052100 UTC TWO ONE POINT EIGHT DEGREES NORTH (21.8 N) ONE ZERO SEVEN POINT ZERO DEGREES EAST (107.0 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 55 KNOTS. ** WTPQ20 BABJ 022300 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TY PRAPIROON 0606 (0606) INITIAL TIME 022300 UTC 00HR 20.1N 113.0E 975HPA 33M/S 30KTS 400KM 50KTS 100KM P12HR NNW 20KM/H= ** WTNT33 KNHC 022359 *** TCPAT3 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM CHRIS INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 9A NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032006 800 PM AST WED AUG 02 2006 ...OUTER BANDS OF CHRIS PRODUCING HEAVY RAINFALL OVER THE VIRGIN ISLANDS... A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS...AND FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...INCLUDING THE ACKLINS...CROOKED ISLAND...THE INAGUAS...MAYAGUANA...AND THE RAGGED ISLANDS. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. AND BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 800 PM AST...0000Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CHRIS WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 64.5 WEST OR ABOUT 100 MILES...160 KM...NORTH-NORTHEAST OF ST. THOMAS. CHRIS HAS WOBBLED WESTWARD DURING THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS BUT HAS GENERALLY BEEN MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH...13 KM/HR...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF CHRIS WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO. HOWEVER...SOME OF THE STRONG RAIN BANDS ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF CHRIS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO AFFECT PUERTO RICO AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 80 MILES...130 KM. RECENT DATA FROM THE AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE INDICATE THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS NEAR 1007 MB...29.74 INCHES. CHRIS IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES OVER THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS...THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS ...AND PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 8 INCHES OVER HIGHER TERRAIN THROUGH THURSDAY. REPEATING THE 800 PM AST POSITION...19.8 N...64.5 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 1100 PM AST. $$ FORECASTER KNABB