** WTSR20 WSSS 020600 *** NO STORM WARNING= ** WTPQ20 BABJ 021200 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TY PRAPIROON 0606 (0606) INITIAL TIME 021200 UTC 00HR 19.4N 113.6E 975HPA 33M/S 30KTS 400KM 50KTS 100KM P12HR WNW 15KM/H P+24HR 21.1N 110.7E 960HPA 40M/S P+48HR 22.6N 109.2E 985HPA 25M/S P+72HR 24.2N 107.7E 995HPA 15M/S= ** WTJP21 RJTD 021200 *** WARNING 021200. WARNING VALID 031200. WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS. TYPHOON WARNING. TYPHOON 0606 PRAPIROON (0606) UPGRADED FROM SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 965 HPA AT 19.2N 113.7E SOUTH CHINA SEA MOVING WESTNORTHWEST 10 KNOTS. POSITION FAIR. MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 50 MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 200 MILES. FORECAST POSITION FOR 031200UTC AT 20.2N 110.6E WITH 80 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 960 HPA, MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. FORECAST POSITION FOR 041200UTC AT 21.4N 108.6E WITH 150 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 980 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. FORECAST POSITION FOR 051200UTC AT 22.1N 107.1E WITH 220 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 992 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 021200 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TY 0606 PRAPIROON (0606) UPGRADED FROM STS ANALYSIS PSTN 021200UTC 19.2N 113.7E FAIR MOVE WNW 10KT PRES 965HPA MXWD 065KT 50KT 50NM 30KT 200NM FORECAST 24HF 031200UTC 20.2N 110.6E 80NM 70% MOVE W 07KT PRES 960HPA MXWD 075KT 48HF 041200UTC 21.4N 108.6E 150NM 70% MOVE WNW SLOWLY PRES 980HPA MXWD 055KT 72HF 051200UTC 22.1N 107.1E 220NM 70% MOVE WNW SLOWLY PRES 992HPA MXWD 040KT = ** WTCA82 TJSJ 021255 *** HLSSJU PRZ001>013-VIZ001-002-AMZ710>750-021530- BULLETIN- TROPICAL STORM CHRIS LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR 830 AM AST WED AUG 2 2006 ...TROPICAL STORM CHRIS IS DUE NORTH OF SAINT MARTIN... ...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO... ...HIGH SURF ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM TODAY TO 11 AM THURSDAY FOR THE NORTHERN COASTS OF PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS EXCEPT VIEQUES... ...NEW INFORMATION... STORM INFORMATION. NEW WINDS. ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT RECOMMENDS ACTIONS TO BE TAKEN BY RESIDENTS AND VISITORS OF THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO. ...WATCHES/WARNINGS... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 8:00 AM AST...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CHRIS WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 63.0 WEST...OR ABOUT 55 MILES NORTH OF ANGUILLA...OR ABOUT 150 MILES EAST NORTHEAST OF ST CROIX OR ABOUT 140 MILES EAST NORTHEAST OF ST THOMAS...OR ABOUT 212 MILES EAST OF SAN JUAN. CHRIS WAS MOVING WEST NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH...WITH THIS GENERAL MOTION EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THIS TRACK... THE CENTER OF CHRIS WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE NORTHERNMOST LEEWARD ISLANDS THIS MORNING...AND PASS NORTH OF SAINT THOMAS AND SAINT JOHN LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 65 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS...AND CHRIS IS FORECAST TO BECOME A HURRICANE LATER TODAY OR THURSDAY. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... RESIDENTS AND VISITORS OF THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO SHOULD CONTINUE TO MAKE PREPARATIONS FOR TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. THE MAIN IMPACT FROM CHRIS IS EXPECTED TO BE TORRENTIAL RAINS FROM THE HEAVY RAIN BANDS AND SQUALLS ASSOCIATED WITH THE STORM. ADDITIONALLY...STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS TO TROPICAL STORM FORCE AND GREATER MAY ACCOMPANY THESE SQUALLS AND RAINBANDS. MARINERS IN THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS SHOULD HAVE ALREADY PREPARED THEIR VESSELS FOR THIS STORM...AND MARINERS IN PUERTO RICO SHOULD RUSH TO READY THEIR VESSELS. ...WINDS... TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 75 MILES FROM THE CENTER OF CHRIS. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME GUSTY IN THE NORTHERN VIRGIN ISLANDS IN PASSING SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE RAIN BANDS. SUSTAINED WINDS ARE FORECAST TO REACH 20 TO 30 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS TROPICAL STORM CHRIS COMES CLOSER TO THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS. BASED ON THE LATEST FORECAST TRACK THE STORM CENTER IS FORECAST TO PASS NORTH OF ST JOHN AND ST THOMAS EARLY TONIGHT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE GUSTS SHOULD BE EXPECTED AS THE RAIN BANDS AROUND THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE STORM IMPACT ST THOMAS AND ST JOHN...AND TO A LESSER EXTENT ST CROIX. WINDS WILL CHANGE TO THE SOUTHEAST ONCE THE STORM MOVES NORTHWEST OF THE VIRGIN ISLANDS LATE IN THE EVENING. WINDS OVER PUERTO RICO ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE TO 15 TO 25 MPH BY LATER THIS AFTERNOON WITH STRONGER GUSTS ALONG THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE ISLAND AND IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS. CURRENTLY SUSTAINED TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN OFFSHORE ACROSS THE ANEGADA PASSAGE AND THE OFF SHORE ATLANTIC WATERS...BUT RESIDENTS OF THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO SHOULD MONITOR THIS CLOSELY AS ANY INCREASE IN THE INTENSITY THIS MORNING OR A MORE WESTWARD TRACK COULD BRING THE STORM CLOSER TO THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO...WITH MORE SIGNIFICANT WIND IMPACTS. ...INLAND FLOODING... THE FIRST SHOWER BANDS FROM CHRIS ARE ALREADY COMING INTO THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE OUTER FRINGES OF TROPICAL STORM CHRIS WILL INCREASE THIS MORNING ACROSS THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS...CULEBRA AND VIEQUES...AND OVER THE EASTERN SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO BY MID MORNING. HEAVY RAINS ARE THEN LIKELY AS THE CENTER OF THE STORM PASSES TO THE NORTH OF THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO. THERE IS A SIGNIFICANT RISK FOR TORRENTIAL RAINFALL AND FLOODING LATE AFTERNOON WEDNESDAY AND INTO THURSDAY. THIS COULD CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY BEHIND THE EXITING STORM AS LOW LEVEL WINDS SHIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST. RAINFALL TOTALS OF THREE TO SIX INCHES ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST INTERIOR SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO AND THE NORTHERN SLOPES OF THE ISLAND. RIVERS ACROSS PUERTO RICO COULD EXPERIENCE RAPID RISES WITH SOME RIVERS EXCEEDING BANKFULL LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY. ...MARINE IMPACTS... SMALL CRAFT SHOULD PLAN TO REMAIN IN PORT THROUGH THURSDAY. SEAS WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE LOCAL ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS AND THROUGH THE ANEGADA PASSAGE THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY... AND WILL LIKELY REACH 10 TO 15 FEET WITHIN 50 MILES OF THE CENTER OF CHRIS. A HIGH SURF ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED EFFECTIVE AT 11 AM TODAY FOR PUERTO RICO INCLUDING CULEBRA AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS. ROUGH AND CONFUSED SURF AND VERY STRONG RIP CURRENTS WILL BE SEEN ACROSS THE WATERS OF THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AND THE NORTHERN COASTS OF PUERTO RICO TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY 11:30 AM AST BY YOUR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE IN SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO. $$ SNELL ** WTPQ20 BABJ 021300 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TY PRAPIROON 0606 (0606) INITIAL TIME 021300 UTC 00HR 19.4N 113.4E 975HPA 33M/S 30KTS 400KM 50KTS 100KM P12HR WNW 15KM/H= ** WTSS20 VHHH 021345 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT 021200 UTC, TYPHOON PRAPIROON (0606) WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 970 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 30 NAUTICAL MILES OF ONE NINE POINT TWO DEGREES NORTH (19.2 N) ONE ONE THREE POINT SIX DEGREES EAST (113.6 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE WEST-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 7 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 65 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 210 NAUTICAL MILES OVER SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE, 180 NAUTICAL MILES ELSEWHERE. RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 90 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 63 KNOT WINDS 30 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 270 NAUTICAL MILES OVER SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE, 210 NAUTICAL MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 031200 UTC TWO ZERO POINT ONE DEGREES NORTH (20.1 N) ONE ONE ZERO POINT EIGHT DEGREES EAST (110.8 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 70 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 041200 UTC TWO ONE POINT ONE DEGREES NORTH (21.1 N) ONE ZERO NINE POINT ZERO DEGREES EAST (109.0 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 65 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 051200 UTC TWO TWO POINT FIVE DEGREES NORTH (22.5 N) ONE ZERO SEVEN POINT EIGHT DEGREES EAST (107.8 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 60 KNOTS. ** WTSS20 VHHH 021345 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT 021200 UTC, TYPHOON PRAPIROON (0606) WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 970 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 30 NAUTICAL MILES OF ONE NINE POINT TWO DEGREES NORTH (19.2 N) ONE ONE THREE POINT SIX DEGREES EAST (113.6 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE WEST-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 7 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 65 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 210 NAUTICAL MILES OVER SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE, 180 NAUTICAL MILES ELSEWHERE. RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 90 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 63 KNOT WINDS 30 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 270 NAUTICAL MILES OVER SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE, 210 NAUTICAL MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 031200 UTC TWO ZERO POINT ONE DEGREES NORTH (20.1 N) ONE ONE ZERO POINT EIGHT DEGREES EAST (110.8 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 70 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 041200 UTC TWO ONE POINT ONE DEGREES NORTH (21.1 N) ONE ZERO NINE POINT ZERO DEGREES EAST (109.0 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 65 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 051200 UTC TWO TWO POINT FIVE DEGREES NORTH (22.5 N) ONE ZERO SEVEN POINT EIGHT DEGREES EAST (107.8 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 60 KNOTS. ** WTPQ20 BABJ 021400 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TY PRAPIROON 0606 (0606) INITIAL TIME 021400 UTC 00HR 19.3N 113.3E 970HPA 35M/S 30KTS 400KM 50KTS 120KM P12HR WNW 15KM/H= ** WTPZ23 KNHC 021418 *** TCMEP3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION GILMA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082006 1500 UTC WED AUG 02 2006 TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.9N 106.5W AT 02/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 4 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.9N 106.5W AT 02/1500Z AT 02/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.7N 106.3W FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 15.2N 107.3W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 15.7N 108.7W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 16.3N 110.0W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 17.2N 111.5W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 18.2N 113.7W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 06/1200Z 19.5N 117.0W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 07/1200Z 20.5N 119.5W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.9N 106.5W NEXT ADVISORY AT 02/2100Z $$ FORECASTER RHOME/PASCH ** WTPZ43 KNHC 021418 *** TCDEP3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION GILMA DISCUSSION NUMBER 7 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082006 800 AM PDT WED AUG 02 2006 EASTERLY SHEAR CONTINUES TO TAKE ITS TOLL ON GILMA WITH THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION BECOMING COMPLETELY EXPOSED OVERNIGHT. OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS...A NEW BURST OF CONVECTION HAS FORMED TO THE WEST OF THE CENTER. BASED ON THIS BURST AND UNCHANGED SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT 30 KT. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS PROBLEMATIC AS THE SHIPS MODEL FORECAST VERTICAL SHEAR TO REMAIN STRONG BUT THE SST SUFFICIENTLY WARM. THIS ENVIRONMENT WOULD TEND TO ALLOW THE BURSTING PATTERN TO CONTINUE WHERE DEEP CONVECTION FORMS OVER OR NEAR THE CENTER THEN GETS BLOWN OFF TO THE WEST. ACCORDINGLY...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND MAINTAINS A 30 KT DEPRESSION THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE FORECAST. HOWEVER...IT IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT A CONVECTIVE BURST COULD CAUSE GILMA TO BRIEFLY REGAIN ITS FORMER TROPICAL STORM STATUS. GIVEN THE AFOREMENTIONED EVOLUTION OF THE CONVECTION...THE MOTION IS ERRATIC. THE SHORT-TERM MOTION IS ESTIMATED TO BE MORE TOWARDS THE WEST AT 285/04 WHILE THE LONGER-TERM MOTION IS 300/04. GIVEN THE PRESENT BURSTING SCENARIO...THE LATER IS FELT TO BE A MORE RELIABLE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE. THE TRACK FORECAST IS EQUALLY AS CHALLENGING AS THE INTENSITY FORECAST DUE IN PART TO THE UNCERTAINTY ON THE EVENTUAL DEPTH OF THE CYCLONE. ADDITIONALLY... GLOBAL MODELS DIFFER IN THE EVOLUTION OF A LARGE TROUGH AMPLIFYING OFF THE WEST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES. THE GFS AND GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN SHOW LESS AMPLIFICATION ALLOWING A RIDGE TO DEVELOP NORTH OF THE CYCLONE THUS IMPARTING A MORE WESTWARD MOTION. CONVERSELY... THE UKMET SHOWS A DEEPER TROUGH...WEAKER RIDGING NORTH OF THE DEPRESSION...AND A GRADUAL TURN TOWARDS THE NORTH. SHOULD THE BURSTING OF CONVECTION CONTINUE...THE CYCLONE WOULD TEND TO STAIR STEP ITS WAY IN A GENERAL NORTHWESTWARD MOTION AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A RIDGE OVER CENTRAL MEXICO. ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS ARE MADE TO THE OFFICIAL FORECAST. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 02/1500Z 14.9N 106.5W 30 KT 12HR VT 03/0000Z 15.2N 107.3W 30 KT 24HR VT 03/1200Z 15.7N 108.7W 30 KT 36HR VT 04/0000Z 16.3N 110.0W 30 KT 48HR VT 04/1200Z 17.2N 111.5W 30 KT 72HR VT 05/1200Z 18.2N 113.7W 30 KT 96HR VT 06/1200Z 19.5N 117.0W 30 KT 120HR VT 07/1200Z 20.5N 119.5W 30 KT $$ FORECASTER RHOME/PASCH ** WTPZ42 KNHC 021418 *** TCDEP2 TROPICAL STORM FABIO DISCUSSION NUMBER 8 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072006 800 AM PDT WED AUG 02 2006 AFTER COMPLETELY DISSIPATING EARLIER THIS MORNING...DEEP CONVECTION HAS ONCE AGAIN FORMED NEAR THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION...ALBEIT DISPLACED A LITTLE TO THE WEST. IT WOULD APPEAR THAT MODERATE VERTICAL SHEAR AND DRY AIR IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVELS APPEARS IS HINDERING THE CYCLONE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 40 KT BASED ON THE RECENT CONVECTIVE TREND AND AN AVERAGE OF THE VARIOUS SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES. VERTICAL SHEAR AND DRY AIR ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AFFECTING THE CYCLONE OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO...AND A SLOW WEAKENING IS SHOWN IN LINE WITH THE FSU SUPER ENSEMBLE. TOWARDS THE LATER PART OF THE FORECAST...INCREASING STABILITY IS EXPECTED TO RENDER THE CYCLONE CONVECTION-FREE AND THE FORECAST SHOWS DEGENERATION INTO A REMNANT LOW BY 96 HOURS. GIVEN THE RECENT EVOLUTION OF CONVECTION...THE SHORT-TERM MOTION HAS BEEN A LITTLE ERRATIC BUT A LONGER TERM AVERAGE YIELDS 280/14. A STRONG DEEP LAYER RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF FABIO IS EXPECTED STEER THE CYCLONE ON A GENERAL WESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION THROUGH MUCH OF THE FORECAST. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST ASSUMES THE SYSTEM WILL NOT BECOME SHALLOW UNTIL 48 HOURS AND THUS ALLOWS SOME ADDITIONAL NORTHWARD PROGRESS. THEREAFTER...AN INCREASINGLY SHALLOW SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO TURN MORE WESTWARD. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT SEVERAL OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS TURN THE CYCLONE WEST-SOUTHWARD AFTER 48 HOURS BUT THOSE MODELS ALSO DISSIPATE THE SYSTEM QUICKER THAN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST. ONLY MINOR CHANGES ARE NEEDED TO THE PREVIOUS TRACK AT THIS TIME. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 02/1500Z 14.9N 131.2W 40 KT 12HR VT 03/0000Z 15.0N 133.3W 40 KT 24HR VT 03/1200Z 15.3N 136.1W 35 KT 36HR VT 04/0000Z 15.6N 138.8W 35 KT 48HR VT 04/1200Z 16.0N 141.5W 35 KT 72HR VT 05/1200Z 16.0N 147.0W 30 KT 96HR VT 06/1200Z 16.0N 152.0W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW 120HR VT 07/1200Z 16.0N 156.5W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW $$ FORECASTER RHOME/PASCH ** WTPZ22 KNHC 021419 *** TCMEP2 TROPICAL STORM FABIO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 8 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072006 1500 UTC WED AUG 02 2006 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.9N 131.2W AT 02/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 13 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT....... 50NE 30SE 30SW 50NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 50NE 30SE 30SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.9N 131.2W AT 02/1500Z AT 02/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.8N 130.5W FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 15.0N 133.3W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 15.3N 136.1W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 45NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 15.6N 138.8W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 45NE 25SE 25SW 45NW. FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 16.0N 141.5W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 45NE 25SE 25SW 45NW. FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 16.0N 147.0W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 06/1200Z 16.0N 152.0W...REMNANT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 07/1200Z 16.0N 156.5W...REMNANT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.9N 131.2W NEXT ADVISORY AT 02/2100Z $$ FORECASTER RHOME/PASCH ** WTNT33 KNHC 021446 *** TCPAT3 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM CHRIS ADVISORY NUMBER 8 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032006 1100 AM AST WED AUG 02 2006 ...CHRIS CONTINUES TO SKIRT THE NORTHERNMOST LEEWARD ISLANDS... AT 11 AM AST...1500 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WATCH FOR THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS...AND FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...INCLUDING THE ACKLINS...CROOKED ISLAND...THE INAGUAS...MAYAGUANA...AND THE RAGGED ISLANDS. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. AT 11 AM AST...1500 UTC...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR ST. BARTHELEMY...ST. MARTIN...AND ST. MAARTEN IS DISCONTINUED. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ANGUILLA...AND ALSO FOR PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. AND BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 1100 AM AST...1500Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CHRIS WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 63.4 WEST OR ABOUT 120 MILES...190 KM...EAST-NORTHEAST OF ST. THOMAS. CHRIS IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/HR... AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF CHRIS WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HOWEVER...SOME OF THE STRONG RAIN BANDS ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF CHRIS MAY AFFECT PUERTO RICO AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS LATER TONIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 65 MPH...100 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. CHRIS COULD BECOME A HURRICANE LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT. ANOTHER AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE WILL INVESTIGATE CHRIS THIS AFTERNOON. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 75 MILES...120 KM FROM THE CENTER. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1001 MB...29.56 INCHES. CHRIS IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES OVER THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS...THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS ...AND PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 8 INCHES POSSIBLE OVER HIGHER TERRAIN THROUGH THURSDAY. REPEATING THE 1100 AM AST POSITION...19.2 N...63.4 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB. AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 200 PM AST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 500 PM AST. $$ FORECASTER PASCH ** WTPN31 PGTW 021500 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TYPHOON 07W (PRAPIROON) WARNING NR 011 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 021200Z --- NEAR 19.2N 113.7E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 290 DEGREES AT 09 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 19.2N 113.7E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 030000Z --- 19.9N 112.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 031200Z --- 20.5N 110.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 040000Z --- 20.9N 109.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 06 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 041200Z --- 21.4N 108.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 051200Z --- 22.4N 106.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 04 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 061200Z --- 22.8N 104.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 021500Z POSITION NEAR 19.4N 113.3E. TYPHOON (TY) 07W (PRAPIROON), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 185 NM SOUTH OF HONG KONG, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 021200Z IS 23 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 022100Z, 030300Z, 030900Z AND 031500Z.// ** WTNT23 KNHC 021446 *** TCMAT3 TROPICAL STORM CHRIS FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 8 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032006 1500 UTC WED AUG 02 2006 AT 11 AM AST...1500 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WATCH FOR THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS...AND FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...INCLUDING THE ACKLINS...CROOKED ISLAND...THE INAGUAS...MAYAGUANA...AND THE RAGGED ISLANDS. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. AT 11 AM AST...1500 UTC...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR ST. BARTHELEMY...ST. MARTIN...AND ST. MAARTEN IS DISCONTINUED. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ANGUILLA...AND ALSO FOR PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. AND BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.2N 63.4W AT 02/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1001 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. 50 KT....... 20NE 15SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT....... 65NE 50SE 25SW 35NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 70NE 60SE 40SW 50NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.2N 63.4W AT 02/1500Z AT 02/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.0N 63.1W FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 19.8N 64.8W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 25NE 25SE 10SW 15NW. 34 KT... 70NE 60SE 30SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 20.3N 66.4W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 10NE 10SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 25NW. 34 KT... 80NE 70SE 50SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 20.8N 68.0W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 15SE 0SW 15NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 25NW. 34 KT... 80NE 70SE 50SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 21.4N 70.1W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 80SE 60SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 22.5N 74.5W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 80SE 60SW 70NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 06/1200Z 23.5N 79.0W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 07/1200Z 24.5N 83.5W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.2N 63.4W NEXT ADVISORY AT 02/2100Z $$ FORECASTER PASCH ** WTNT43 KNHC 021447 *** TCDAT3 TROPICAL STORM CHRIS DISCUSSION NUMBER 8 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032006 1100 AM EDT WED AUG 02 2006 DATA FROM THE SAN JUAN WSR-88D DOPPLER RADAR AND HIGH-RESOLUTION VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGEST THAT CHRIS IS GRADUALLY BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED AS IT CONTINUES TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 9 KT. INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 55 KT IN ACCORDANCE WITH THE LAST RECON-MEASURED FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 67 KT AND DVORAK T-NUMBERS OF 3.5 FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB. CIRRUS MOTIONS INDICATE THAT CHRIS CONTINUES TO BE EXPERIENCING SOME NORTHERLY SHEAR. ON THE PREDICTED TRACK...AND BASED ON THE 200 MB WIND FORECAST FROM THE GFS...CHRIS WILL BE IN A COL REGION BETWEEN TWO UPPER-LEVEL CYCLONES DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS IS A REASONABLY FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT...SO A GRADUAL INCREASE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST. THE NHC WIND SPEED FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE LATEST SHIPS GUIDANCE AND A LITTLE ABOVE THE FSU SUPERENSEMBLE PREDICTION. AS ALWAYS...IT SHOULD BE RECALLED THAT TROPICAL CYCLONE INTENSITY FORECASTS AT 3-5 DAYS HAVE LITTLE SKILL. LATEST CENTER FIXES SUGGEST LITTLE CHANGE IN THE INITIAL HEADING OR SPEED. GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THAT THE MID/UPPER-LEVEL LOW NEAR THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS WILL MOVE WESTWARD AND SLOWLY WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...WHILE A RATHER STRONG MID-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE BUILDS TO THE NORTH OF CHRIS. THIS KIND OF FLOW PATTERN WOULD STEER THE TROPICAL CYCLONE ON A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK. HOWEVER AN EVEN STRONGER RIDGE WOULD LIKELY DRIVE CHRIS WESTWARD. INDEED... THIS IS THE SCENARIO OFFERED BY THE GFDL MODEL WHICH EVEN TURNS THE SYSTEM WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD FOR A WHILE. WHEREAS THE GFDL IS A HIGHLY CREDIBLE MODEL...THE MOST PRUDENT COURSE AT THIS TIME IS TO USE THE CONSENSUS OF ALL OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS. THIS IS ALSO VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS NHC TRACK. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 02/1500Z 19.2N 63.4W 55 KT 12HR VT 03/0000Z 19.8N 64.8W 60 KT 24HR VT 03/1200Z 20.3N 66.4W 65 KT 36HR VT 04/0000Z 20.8N 68.0W 65 KT 48HR VT 04/1200Z 21.4N 70.1W 70 KT 72HR VT 05/1200Z 22.5N 74.5W 70 KT 96HR VT 06/1200Z 23.5N 79.0W 70 KT 120HR VT 07/1200Z 24.5N 83.5W 70 KT $$ FORECASTER PASCH ** WTCA43 TJSJ 021505 *** TCPSP3 BOLETIN TORMENTA TROPICAL CHRIS ADVERTENCIA INTERMEDIA NUMERO 7A NWS TCP/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL AL032006 11 AM AST MIERCOLES 2 DE AGOSTO DE 2006 ...CHRIS CONTINUA BORDEANDO LAS ISLAS DE SOTAVENTO NORTE... A LAS 11 AM AST...1500 UTC...EL GOBIERNO DE LAS BAHAMAS HA EMITIDO UNA VIGILANCIA DE HURACAN PARA LAS ISLAS TURKS Y CAICOS...Y PARA EL SURESTE DE LAS BAHAMAS...INCLUYENDO ACKLINS...CROOKED ISLAND...INAGUAS...MAYAGUANA Y RAGGED ISLANDS. UNA VIGILANCIA DE HURACAN SIGNIFICA QUE LAS CONDICIONES DE HURACAN SON POSIBLES DENTRO DEL AREA BAJO VIGILANCIA...GENERALMENTE DENTRO DE LAS PROXIMAS 36 HORAS. A LAS 11 AM...1500 UTC...EL AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL PARA SAN BARTOLOME...SAN MARTIN Y SAN MAARTEN HA SIDO DESCONTINUADA. PERMANECE EN EFECTO UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL PARA PUERTO RICO Y LAS ISLAS VIRGENES AMERICANAS Y BRITANICAS. UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SIGNIFICA QUE SE ESPERAN CONDICIONES DE TORMENTA TROPICAL DENTRO DEL AREA BAJO AVISO DENTRO DE LAS PROXIMAS 12 A 24 HORAS. PARA INFORMACION ESPECIFICA PARA SU AREA...INCLUYENDO POSIBLES VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS PARA AREAS TERRESTRES...FAVOR DE REFERIRSE A LOS PRODUCTOS EMITIDOS POR SU OFICINA METEOROLOGICA LOCAL. A LAS 11 AM AST...1500Z...EL CENTRO DE LA TORMENTA TROPICAL CHRIS ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 19.2 NORTE...LONGITUD 63.4 OESTE O COMO A 120 MILLAS...190 KM...AL ESTE NORESTE DE SAN THOMAS. CHRIS SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL OESTE NOROESTE A CERCA DE 10 MPH...17 KILOMETROS POR HORA...Y SE PRONOSTICA QUE ESTE MOVIMIENTO GENERAL CONTINUARA DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. EN ESTA TRAYECTORIA...EL CENTRO DE LA TORMENTA CHRIS PERMANECERA AL NORTE DE LAS ISLAS VIRGENES Y PUERTO RICO ESTA TARDE Y AL ANOCHECER. SIN EMBARGO...ALGUNAS DE LAS FUERTES BANDAS DE LLUVIA DEL LADO SUR DE CHRIS PODRIAN AFECTAR PUERTO RICO Y LAS ISLAS VIRGENES MAS TARDE ESTA NOCHE Y TEMPRANO EN EL JUEVES. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS ESTAN EN CERCA DE 65 MPH...100 KM/HR...CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. CHRIS PODRIA CONVERTIRSE EN HURACAN MAS TARDE EN EL DIA DE HOY O ESTA NOCHE. UN AVION CAZAHURACANES DE LA FUERZA AEREA ESTA PROGRAMADO PARA INVESTIGAR CHRIS ESTA TARDE. LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SE EXTIENDEN HACIA AFUERA HASTA 75 MILLAS...120 KILOMETROS FUERA DEL CENTRO. LA PRESION MINIMA CENTRAL SE ESTIMA EN 1001 MILIBARAS...29.56 PULGADAS. SE ESPERA QUE CHRIS PRODUZCA TOTALES DE LLUVIA DE 2 A 4 PULGADAS SOBRE LAS ISLAS DE SOTAVENTO NORTE...LAS ISLAS VIRGENES AMERICANAS Y PORCIONES DE PUERTO RICO...CON CANTIDADES AISLADAS MAXIMAS DE 8 PULGADAS POSIBLES SOBRE TERRENO MAS ALTO HASTA EL JUEVES. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 11 AM AST...19.2 NORTE...63.4 OESTE. SE MUEVE AL OESTE NOROESTE A CERCA DE 10 MPH. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS...65 MPH. LA PRESION MINIMA CENTRAL...1001 MILIBARAS. UNA ADVERTENCIA INTERMEDIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 2 PM AST SEGUIDA POR LA PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA COMPLETA A LAS 5 PM AST. $$ PRONOTICADOR PASCH ** WTCA43 TJSJ 021514 CCA *** TCPSP3 BOLETIN TORMENTA TROPICAL CHRIS ADVERTENCIA NUMERO 8 NWS TCP/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL AL032006 11 AM AST MIERCOLES 2 DE AGOSTO DE 2006 ...CHRIS CONTINUA BORDEANDO LAS ISLAS DE SOTAVENTO NORTE... A LAS 11 AM AST...1500 UTC...EL GOBIERNO DE LAS BAHAMAS HA EMITIDO UNA VIGILANCIA DE HURACAN PARA LAS ISLAS TURKS Y CAICOS...Y PARA EL SURESTE DE LAS BAHAMAS...INCLUYENDO ACKLINS...CROOKED ISLAND...INAGUAS...MAYAGUANA Y RAGGED ISLANDS. UNA VIGILANCIA DE HURACAN SIGNIFICA QUE LAS CONDICIONES DE HURACAN SON POSIBLES DENTRO DEL AREA BAJO VIGILANCIA...GENERALMENTE DENTRO DE LAS PROXIMAS 36 HORAS. A LAS 11 AM...1500 UTC...EL AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL PARA SAN BARTOLOME...SAN MARTIN Y SAN MAARTEN HA SIDO DESCONTINUADA. PERMANECE EN EFECTO UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL PARA PUERTO RICO Y LAS ISLAS VIRGENES AMERICANAS Y BRITANICAS. UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SIGNIFICA QUE SE ESPERAN CONDICIONES DE TORMENTA TROPICAL DENTRO DEL AREA BAJO AVISO DENTRO DE LAS PROXIMAS 12 A 24 HORAS. PARA INFORMACION ESPECIFICA PARA SU AREA...INCLUYENDO POSIBLES VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS PARA AREAS TERRESTRES...FAVOR DE REFERIRSE A LOS PRODUCTOS EMITIDOS POR SU OFICINA METEOROLOGICA LOCAL. A LAS 11 AM AST...1500Z...EL CENTRO DE LA TORMENTA TROPICAL CHRIS ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 19.2 NORTE...LONGITUD 63.4 OESTE O COMO A 120 MILLAS...190 KM...AL ESTE NORESTE DE SAN THOMAS. CHRIS SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL OESTE NOROESTE A CERCA DE 10 MPH...17 KILOMETROS POR HORA...Y SE PRONOSTICA QUE ESTE MOVIMIENTO GENERAL CONTINUARA DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. EN ESTA TRAYECTORIA...EL CENTRO DE LA TORMENTA CHRIS PERMANECERA AL NORTE DE LAS ISLAS VIRGENES Y PUERTO RICO ESTA TARDE Y AL ANOCHECER. SIN EMBARGO...ALGUNAS DE LAS FUERTES BANDAS DE LLUVIA DEL LADO SUR DE CHRIS PODRIAN AFECTAR PUERTO RICO Y LAS ISLAS VIRGENES MAS TARDE ESTA NOCHE Y TEMPRANO EN EL JUEVES. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS ESTAN EN CERCA DE 65 MPH...100 KM/HR...CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. CHRIS PODRIA CONVERTIRSE EN HURACAN MAS TARDE EN EL DIA DE HOY O ESTA NOCHE. UN AVION CAZAHURACANES DE LA FUERZA AEREA ESTA PROGRAMADO PARA INVESTIGAR CHRIS ESTA TARDE. LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SE EXTIENDEN HACIA AFUERA HASTA 75 MILLAS...120 KILOMETROS FUERA DEL CENTRO. LA PRESION MINIMA CENTRAL SE ESTIMA EN 1001 MILIBARAS...29.56 PULGADAS. SE ESPERA QUE CHRIS PRODUZCA TOTALES DE LLUVIA DE 2 A 4 PULGADAS SOBRE LAS ISLAS DE SOTAVENTO NORTE...LAS ISLAS VIRGENES AMERICANAS Y PORCIONES DE PUERTO RICO...CON CANTIDADES AISLADAS MAXIMAS DE 8 PULGADAS POSIBLES SOBRE TERRENO MAS ALTO HASTA EL JUEVES. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 11 AM AST...19.2 NORTE...63.4 OESTE. SE MUEVE AL OESTE NOROESTE A CERCA DE 10 MPH. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS...65 MPH. LA PRESION MINIMA CENTRAL...1001 MILIBARAS. UNA ADVERTENCIA INTERMEDIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 2 PM AST SEGUIDA POR LA PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA COMPLETA A LAS 5 PM AST. $$ PRONOTICADOR PASCH ** WTPQ20 BABJ 021500 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TY PRAPIROON 0606 (0606) INITIAL TIME 021500 UTC 00HR 19.3N 113.2E 970HPA 35M/S 30KTS 400KM 50KTS 120KM P12HR WNW 15KM/H= ** WTJP31 RJTD 021500 *** WARNING 021500. WARNING VALID 031500. TYPHOON WARNING. TYPHOON 0606 PRAPIROON (0606) 965 HPA AT 19.2N 113.3E SOUTH CHINA SEA MOVING WEST 08 KNOTS. POSITION FAIR. MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 50 MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 200 MILES. FORECAST POSITION FOR 031500UTC AT 20.2N 110.3E WITH 80 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 960 HPA, MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 021500 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TY 0606 PRAPIROON (0606) ANALYSIS PSTN 021500UTC 19.2N 113.3E FAIR MOVE W 08KT PRES 965HPA MXWD 065KT 50KT 50NM 30KT 200NM FORECAST 24HF 031500UTC 20.2N 110.3E 80NM 70% MOVE W 07KT PRES 960HPA MXWD 075KT 45HF 041200UTC 21.4N 108.6E 150NM 70% MOVE WNW SLOWLY PRES 980HPA MXWD 055KT 69HF 051200UTC 22.1N 107.1E 220NM 70% MOVE WNW SLOWLY PRES 992HPA MXWD 040KT = ** WTPN31 PHNC 021600 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// REF/A/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN/PEARL HARBOR HI/021535AUG2006// AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL STORM 07E (FABIO) WARNING NR 008 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 021200Z --- NEAR 14.8N 130.5W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 280 DEGREES AT 13 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 14.8N 130.5W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 030000Z --- 15.0N 133.3W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 14 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 031200Z --- 15.3N 136.1W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 02 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 040000Z --- 15.6N 136.1W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 26 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 041200Z --- 16.0N 141.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 13 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 051200Z --- 16.0N 147.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 12 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 061200Z --- 16.0N 152.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 11 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 071200Z --- 16.0N 156.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT --- REMARKS: 021600Z POSITION NEAR 14.9N 131.4W. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 021200Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 022200Z, 030400Z, 031000Z AND 031600Z. REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 08E (GILMA) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PHNC) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.// ** WTPN32 PHNC 021600 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// REF/A/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN/PEARL HARBOR HI/021530AUG2006// AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 08E (GILMA) WARNING NR 007 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 021200Z --- NEAR 14.9N 106.5W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 300 DEGREES AT 04 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT REPEAT POSIT: 14.9N 106.5W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 030000Z --- 15.2N 107.3W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 031200Z --- 15.7N 108.7W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 040000Z --- 16.3N 110.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 08 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 041200Z --- 17.2N 111.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 051200Z --- 18.2N 113.7W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 08 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 061200Z --- 19.5N 117.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 071200Z --- 20.5N 119.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT --- REMARKS: 021600Z POSITION NEAR 15.0N 106.8W. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 021200Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 022200Z, 030400Z, 031000Z AND 031600Z. REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 07E (FABIO) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PHNC) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.// ** WTPQ20 BABJ 021600 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TY PRAPIROON 0606 (0606) INITIAL TIME 021600 UTC 00HR 19.2N 113.2E 970HPA 35M/S 30KTS 400KM 50KTS 120KM P12HR WNW 15KM/H= ** WTNT80 EGRR 021647 *** MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 02.08.2006 TROPICAL STORM CHRIS ANALYSED POSITION : 19.3N 63.7W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL032006 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 02.08.2006 19.3N 63.7W MODERATE 00UTC 03.08.2006 20.4N 64.5W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 03.08.2006 21.5N 67.2W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 04.08.2006 22.4N 69.5W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 04.08.2006 23.4N 72.3W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 05.08.2006 23.8N 74.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 05.08.2006 24.9N 77.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 06.08.2006 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH TROPICAL STORM FABIO ANALYSED POSITION : 14.7N 130.2W ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP072006 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 02.08.2006 14.7N 130.2W WEAK 00UTC 03.08.2006 14.8N 133.1W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 03.08.2006 15.3N 136.5W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 04.08.2006 14.7N 139.7W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 04.08.2006 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH TROPICAL DEPRESSION GILMA ANALYSED POSITION : 14.8N 106.0W ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP082006 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 02.08.2006 14.8N 106.0W WEAK 00UTC 03.08.2006 15.2N 107.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 03.08.2006 15.8N 108.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 04.08.2006 16.6N 109.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 04.08.2006 18.1N 111.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 05.08.2006 19.2N 111.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 05.08.2006 20.1N 112.1W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 06.08.2006 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 021647 ** WTSS20 VHHH 021645 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT 021500 UTC, TYPHOON PRAPIROON (0606) WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 970 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 30 NAUTICAL MILES OF ONE NINE POINT TWO DEGREES NORTH (19.2 N) ONE ONE THREE POINT THREE DEGREES EAST (113.3 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE WEST-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 7 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 65 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 210 NAUTICAL MILES OVER SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE, 180 NAUTICAL MILES ELSEWHERE. RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 90 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 63 KNOT WINDS 30 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 270 NAUTICAL MILES OVER SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE, 210 NAUTICAL MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 031500 UTC TWO ZERO POINT ONE DEGREES NORTH (20.1 N) ONE ONE ZERO POINT FIVE DEGREES EAST (110.5 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 70 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 041500 UTC TWO ONE POINT THREE DEGREES NORTH (21.3 N) ONE ZERO EIGHT POINT EIGHT DEGREES EAST (108.8 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 65 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 051500 UTC TWO TWO POINT SEVEN DEGREES NORTH (22.7 N) ONE ZERO SEVEN POINT SIX DEGREES EAST (107.6 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 60 KNOTS. ** WTSS20 VHHH 021645 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT 021500 UTC, TYPHOON PRAPIROON (0606) WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 970 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 30 NAUTICAL MILES OF ONE NINE POINT TWO DEGREES NORTH (19.2 N) ONE ONE THREE POINT THREE DEGREES EAST (113.3 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE WEST-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 7 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 65 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 210 NAUTICAL MILES OVER SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE, 180 NAUTICAL MILES ELSEWHERE. RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 90 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 63 KNOT WINDS 30 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 270 NAUTICAL MILES OVER SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE, 210 NAUTICAL MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 031500 UTC TWO ZERO POINT ONE DEGREES NORTH (20.1 N) ONE ONE ZERO POINT FIVE DEGREES EAST (110.5 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 70 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 041500 UTC TWO ONE POINT THREE DEGREES NORTH (21.3 N) ONE ZERO EIGHT POINT EIGHT DEGREES EAST (108.8 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 65 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 051500 UTC TWO TWO POINT SEVEN DEGREES NORTH (22.7 N) ONE ZERO SEVEN POINT SIX DEGREES EAST (107.6 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 60 KNOTS. ** WTPQ20 BABJ 021700 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TY PRAPIROON 0606 (0606) INITIAL TIME 021700 UTC 00HR 19.2N 113.2E 970HPA 35M/S 30KTS 400KM 50KTS 120KM P12HR WNW 15KM/H= ** WTIN20 DEMS 021700 *** TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK ------------------------ DEMS -RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONES NEW DELHI 02-08-2006(.) TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NORTH INDIAN OCEAN (THE BAY OF BENGAL AND THE ARABIAN SEA ) VALID FOR NEXT 24 HOURS ISSUED AT 1700 UTC (.) SUB:DEEP DEPRESSION OVER BAY OF BENGAL MORNING'S DEPRESSION OVER NORTHWEST BAY OF BENGAL HAS INTENSIFIED INTO A DEEP DEPRESSION AND LAY CENTRED AT 1200 UTC OF TODAY,THE 2ND AUGUST 2006 NEAR LAT.20.0 DEG.N AND LONG.86.5 DEG.E,CLOSE TO PARADIP. THE SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO MOVE IN A WEST-NORTHWESTERLY DIRECTION AND CROSS ORISSA COAST SOUTH OF PARADIP BY TONIGHT. BROKEN INTENSE TO VERY INTENSE CONVECTIVE CLOUDS ARE SEEN OVER NORTHWEST AND ADJOINING WEST CENTRAL BAY OF BENGAL IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS SYSTEM. MSG OVER ????/ ** WTCA82 TJSJ 021718 RRA *** HLSSJU PRZ001>013-VIZ001-002-AMZ710>750-021830- BULLETIN- TROPICAL STORM CHRIS LOCAL STATEMENT...DELAYED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR 1130 AM AST WED AUG 2 2006 ...TROPICAL STORM CHRIS IS PASSING NORTH OF SOMBRERO ISLAND... ...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO... ...HIGH SURF ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 AM THURSDAY FOR THE NORTHERN COASTS OF PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS EXCEPT VIEQUES... ...NEW INFORMATION... STORM INFORMATION. INLAND FLOODING. WINDS. ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT RECOMMENDS ACTIONS TO BE TAKEN BY RESIDENTS AND VISITORS OF THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO. ...WATCHES/WARNINGS... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 11:00 AM AST...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CHRIS WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 63.4 WEST...OR ABOUT 70 MILES EAST NORTHEAST OF ANEGADA ISLAND...OR ABOUT 140 MILES NORTHEAST OF ST CROIX OR ABOUT 121 MILES EAST NORTHEAST OF ST THOMAS...OR ABOUT 190 MILES EAST NORTHEAST OF SAN JUAN. CHRIS WAS MOVING WEST NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH...WITH THIS GENERAL MOTION EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THIS TRACK... THE CENTER OF CHRIS WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE NORTHERNMOST LEEWARD ISLANDS THIS MORNING...AND PASS NORTH OF SAINT THOMAS AND SAINT JOHN LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 65 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS...AND CHRIS IS FORECAST TO BECOME A HURRICANE ON THURSDAY. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... RESIDENTS AND VISITORS OF THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO SHOULD CONTINUE TO MAKE PREPARATIONS FOR TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. THE MAIN IMPACT FROM CHRIS IS EXPECTED TO BE TORRENTIAL RAINS FROM THE HEAVY RAIN BANDS AND SQUALLS ASSOCIATED WITH THE STORM. ADDITIONALLY...STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS TO TROPICAL STORM FORCE AND GREATER MAY ACCOMPANY THESE SQUALLS AND RAINBANDS. MARINERS IN THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS SHOULD HAVE ALREADY PREPARED THEIR VESSELS FOR THIS STORM...AND MARINERS IN PUERTO RICO SHOULD RUSH TO READY THEIR VESSELS. ...WINDS... TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 75 MILES FROM THE CENTER OF CHRIS. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME GUSTY IN THE NORTHERN VIRGIN ISLANDS IN PASSING SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE RAIN BANDS. SUSTAINED WINDS ARE FORECAST TO REACH 20 TO 30 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS TROPICAL STORM CHRIS COMES CLOSER TO THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS. BASED ON THE LATEST FORECAST TRACK THE STORM CENTER IS FORECAST TO PASS NORTH OF ST JOHN AND ST THOMAS EARLY TONIGHT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE GUSTS SHOULD BE EXPECTED AS THE RAIN BANDS AROUND THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE STORM IMPACT ST THOMAS AND ST JOHN...AND TO A LESSER EXTENT ST CROIX. WINDS WILL CHANGE TO THE SOUTHEAST ONCE THE STORM MOVES NORTHWEST OF THE VIRGIN ISLANDS LATE IN THE EVENING. WINDS OVER PUERTO RICO ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE TO 15 TO 25 MPH BY THIS EVENING WITH STRONGER GUSTS ALONG THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE ISLAND AND IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS. CURRENTLY SUSTAINED TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN OFFSHORE ACROSS THE ANEGADA PASSAGE AND THE OFF SHORE ATLANTIC WATERS...BUT RESIDENTS OF THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO SHOULD MONITOR THIS CLOSELY AS ANY INCREASE IN THE INTENSITY THIS MORNING OR A MORE WESTWARD TRACK COULD BRING THE STORM CLOSER TO THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO...WITH MORE SIGNIFICANT WIND IMPACTS. ...INLAND FLOODING... RAIN BANDS WITH HEAVY RAINS ARE ENTERING THE NORTHER U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND DUE TO THE SLOW MOVING NATURE OF THESE BANDS...AMOUNTS WILL BE HEAVY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE OUTER FRINGES OF TROPICAL STORM CHRIS WILL INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS...CULEBRA AND VIEQUES...AND OVER THE EASTERN SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO LATER THIS AFTERNOON. HEAVY RAINS ARE THEN LIKELY AS THE CENTER OF THE STORM PASSES TO THE NORTH OF THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO. THERE IS A SIGNIFICANT RISK FOR TORRENTIAL RAINFALL AND FLOODING LATE AFTERNOON WEDNESDAY AND INTO THURSDAY. THIS COULD CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY BEHIND THE EXITING STORM AS LOW LEVEL WINDS SHIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST. RAINFALL TOTALS OF THREE TO SIX INCHES ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST INTERIOR SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO AND THE NORTHERN SLOPES OF THE ISLAND. RIVERS ACROSS PUERTO RICO COULD EXPERIENCE RAPID RISES WITH SOME RIVERS EXCEEDING BANKFULL LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY. ...MARINE IMPACTS... SMALL CRAFT SHOULD PLAN TO REMAIN IN PORT THROUGH THURSDAY. SEAS WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE LOCAL ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS AND THROUGH THE ANEGADA PASSAGE THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY... AND WILL LIKELY REACH 10 TO 15 FEET WITHIN 50 MILES OF THE CENTER OF CHRIS. A HIGH SURF ADVISORY HAS IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 AM THURSDAY FOR PUERTO RICO INCLUDING CULEBRA AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS. ROUGH AND CONFUSED SURF AND VERY STRONG RIP CURRENTS WILL BE SEEN ACROSS THE WATERS OF THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AND THE NORTHERN COASTS OF PUERTO RICO TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY 2:30 PM AST BY YOUR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE IN SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO. $$ SNELL ** WTJP31 RJTD 021500 *** WARNING 021500. WARNING VALID 031500. TYPHOON WARNING. TYPHOON 0606 PRAPIROON (0606) 965 HPA AT 19.2N 113.3E SOUTH CHINA SEA MOVING WEST 08 KNOTS. POSITION FAIR. MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 50 MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 200 MILES. FORECAST POSITION FOR 031500UTC AT 20.2N 110.3E WITH 80 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 960 HPA, MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 021500 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TY 0606 PRAPIROON (0606) ANALYSIS PSTN 021500UTC 19.2N 113.3E FAIR MOVE W 08KT PRES 965HPA MXWD 065KT 50KT 50NM 30KT 200NM FORECAST 24HF 031500UTC 20.2N 110.3E 80NM 70% MOVE W 07KT PRES 960HPA MXWD 075KT 45HF 041200UTC 21.4N 108.6E 150NM 70% MOVE WNW SLOWLY PRES 980HPA MXWD 055KT 69HF 051200UTC 22.1N 107.1E 220NM 70% MOVE WNW SLOWLY PRES 992HPA MXWD 040KT =