** WTNT33 KNHC 020604 *** TCPAT3 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM CHRIS INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 6A...CORRECTED NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032006 200 AM AST WED AUG 02 2006 CORRECTED TIMING OF PASSAGE THROUGH NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS ...CHRIS BRUSHING THE NORTHERNMOST LEEWARD ISLANDS... ...SOME TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS DISCONTINUED... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE ISLANDS OF ANTIGUA...BARBUDA...ANGUILLA...ST. KITTS...NEVIS...ST. BARTHELEMY...ST. MARTIN...AND ST. MAARTEN. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS WILL LIKELY BE DISCONTINUED LATER THIS MORNING FOR SOME OF THESE ISLANDS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. AND BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS. AT 2 AM AST...0600 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE NETHERLANDS ANTILLES HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR SABA AND ST. EUSTATIUS. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 200 AM AST...0600Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CHRIS WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 62.2 WEST OR ABOUT 65 MILES... 110 KM...EAST-NORTHEAST OF ST. MAARTEN IN THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS. CHRIS IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/HR... AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF CHRIS WILL MOVE NEAR OR OVER THE NORTHERNMOST LEEWARD ISLANDS LATER THIS MORNING...AND POSSIBLY AFFECT THE VIRGIN ISLANDS THIS AFTERNOON OR EVENING. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS... AND CHRIS COULD BECOME A HURRICANE LATER TODAY. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 40 MILES...65 KM FROM THE CENTER. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE RECENTLY REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS 1002 MB...29.59 INCHES. REPEATING THE 200 AM AST POSITION...18.5 N...62.2 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB. CHRIS IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES OVER THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS...THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS...AND PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 8 INCHES THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 500 AM AST. $$ FORECASTER STEWART ** WTIN20 DEMS 020608 *** TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK ------------------------ DEMS -RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONES NEW DELHI 02-08-2006(.) TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NORTH INDIAN OCEAN (THE BAY OF BENGAL AND THE ARABIAN SEA ) VALID FOR NEXT 24 HOURS ISSUED AT 0600 UTC (.) CONVECTIVE CLOUDS ARE SEEN OVER NORTH-WEST BAY,WEST CENTRAL BAY OF BENGAL AND PARTS OF NORTH,ARABIAN SEA (.) RIDGE LINE AT 200 HPA RUNS ALONG 33 DEG. NORTH OVER THE INDIAN REGION (.) ** WTCA43 TJSJ 020613 *** TCPSP3 BOLETIN TORMENTA TROPICAL CHRIS ADVERTENCIA INTERMEDIA NUMERO 6A NWS TCP/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL AL032006 2 AM AST MIERCOLES 2 DE AGOSTO DE 2006 ...CHRIS ROSANDO LAS ISLAS DE SOTAVENTO DEL NORTE... ...ALGUNOS AVISOS DE TORMENTA TROPICAL HA SIDO DESCONTINUADOS... EN EFECTO UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL PARA LAS ISLAS DE ANTIGUA...BARBUDA...ANGUILLA...SAN KITTS...NEVIS...ST. BARTHELEMY...ST MARTIN...Y ST. MAARTEN. UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SIGNIFICA QUE SE ESPERAN CONDICIONES DE TORMENTA TROPICAL DENTRO DEL AREA DEL AVISO DENTRO DE LAS PROXIMAS 12 A 24 HORAS. EL AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL PROBABLEMENTE SEA DESCONTINUADO MAS TARDE ESTA MANANA PARA ALGUNAS DE ESTAS ISLAS. UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL PARA PUERTO RICO Y LAS ISLAS VIRGENES AMERICANAS Y BRITANICAS. A LAS 2 AM AST...0600 UCT...EL GOBIERNO DE LAS ANTILLAS HOLANDESAS...HA DESCONTINUADO EL AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL PARA SABA Y ST. EUSTATIUS. PARA INFORMACION ESPECIFICA PARA SU AREA...INCLUYENDO POSIBLES VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS PARA AREAS TERRESTRES...FAVOR DE REFERIRSE A LOS PRODUCTOS EMITIDOS POR SU OFICINA METEOROLOGICA LOCAL. A LAS 2 AM AST...0600Z...EL CENTRO DE LA TORMENTA TROPICAL CHRIS ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 18.5 NORTE...LONGITUD 62.2 OESTE O COMO A 65MILLAS...110 KM...AL ESTE-NORESTE DE ST. MAARTEN EN THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS. LAS ISLAS DE SOTAVENTO NORTE. CHRIS SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL OESTE NOROESTE A CERCA DE 10 MPH...17 KILOMETROS POR HORA...Y SE PRONOSTICA QUE ESTE MOVIMIENTO GENERAL CONTINUARA DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. EN LA TRAYECTORIA ACTUAL...CHRIS ESTARA PASANDO CERCA O SOBRE LAS ISLAS MAS NORTE DE LAS ISLAS DE SOTAVENTO DEL NORTE ESTA NOCHE Y TEMPRANO EL MIERCOLES. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS ESTAN EN CERCA DE 60 MPH...95 KM/HR...CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. SE PRONOSTICA ALGUN FORTALECIMIENTO ADICIONAL DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. Y CRIS PODRIA CONVERTIRSE EN HURACAN MAS TARDE DURANTE EL DIA DE HOY. LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SE EXTIENDEN HACIA AFUERA HASTA 40 MILLAS...65 KILOMETROS FUERA DEL CENTRO. LA PRESION MINIMA CENTRAL SE ESTIMA EN 1002 MILIBARAS ...29.59 PULGADAS. SE ESPERA QUE CHRIS PRODUZCA TOTALES DE LLUVIA DE 3 A 5 PULGADAS SOBRE LAS ISLAS NORTE DE LAS ISLAS DE SOTAVENTO...LAS ISLAS VIRGENES AMERICANAS Y PORCIONES DE PUERTO RICO...CON POSIBLES CANTIDADES AISLADAS MAXIMAS DE 8 PULGADAS HASTA EL MIERCOLES. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 2 AM AST...18.5 NORTE...62.2 OESTE. SE MUEVE AL...OESTE NOROESTE A CERCA DE 10 MPH. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS...60 MPH. LA PRESION MINIMA CENTRAL...1002 MILIBARAS. LA PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 5 AM AST $$ PRONOTICADOR STEWART ** WTCA82 TJSJ 020636 CCA *** HLSSJU PRZ001>013-VIZ001-002-AMZ710>750-020930- BULLETIN- TROPICAL STORM CHRIS LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR 235 AM AST WED AUG 2 2006 ...TROPICAL STORM CHRIS CHRIS BRUSHING THE NORTHERNMOST LEEWARD ISLANDS... ...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO... ...NEW INFORMATION... STORM INFORMATION. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS. WINDS. INLAND FLOODING. MARINE IMPACTS. ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT RECOMMENDS ACTIONS TO BE TAKEN BY RESIDENTS AND VISITORS OF THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO. ...WATCHES/WARNINGS... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN 24 HOURS OR LESS. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 2:00 AM AST...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CHRIS WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 62.2 WEST...OR ABOUT 65 MILES ST. MAARTEN...OR ABOUT 180 MILES EAST NORTHEAST OF ST CROIX OR ABOUT 200 MILES EAST OF ST THOMAS...OR ABOUT 280 MILES EAST OF SAN JUAN. CHRIS WAS MOVING WEST NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH...WITH THIS GENERAL MOTION EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THIS TRACK... THE CENTER OF CHRIS WILL MOVE NEAR OR OVER THE NORTHERNMOST LEEWARD ISLANDS LATER THIS MORNING...AND POSSIBLY AFFECT THE VIRGIN ISLANDS THIS AFTERNOON OR EVENING. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS...AND CHRIS IS FORECAST TO BECOME A HURRICANE THURSDAY MORNING. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... RESIDENTS AND VISITORS OF THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS PUERTO RICO SHOULD CONTINUE TO MAKE PREPARATIONS FOR TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. THE MAIN IMPACT FROM CHRIS IS EXPECTED TO BE TORRENTIAL RAINS FROM THE HEAVY RAIN BANDS AND SQUALLS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST SECTIONS OF THE STORM. ADDITIONALLY... STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS TO TROPICAL STORM FORCE AND GREATER MAY ACCOMPANY THESE SQUALLS AND RAINBANDS. MARINERS IN THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS SHOULD HAVE ALREADY PREPARED THEIR VESSELS FOR THIS STORM...AND MARINERS IN PUERTO RICO SHOULD RUSH TO READY THEIR VESSELS. ...WINDS... TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 40 MILES FROM THE CENTER OF CHRIS. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE EARLY THIS MORNING OVER THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS...WITH SUSTAINED WINDS FORECAST TO REACH 20 TO 30 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS AFTER 8 AM THIS MORNING AS TROPICAL STORM CHRIS APPROACHES THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS. BASED ON THE LATEST FORECAST TRACK THE STORM CENTER IS FORECAST TO PASS NORTH OF ST JOHN AND ST THOMAS TONIGHT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WIND IN GUSTS SHOULD BE EXPECTED AS THE RAIN BANDS AROUND THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE STORM IMPACT ST THOMAS AND ST JOHN...AND TO A LESSER EXTENT ST CROIX. WINDS WILL CHANGE TO THE SOUTHEAST ONCE THE STORM MOVES NORTHWEST OF THE VIRGIN ISLANDS LATE IN THE EVENING. WINDS OVER PUERTO RICO ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE TO 15 TO 25 MPH BY LATER THIS AFTERNOON WITH STRONGER GUSTS ALONG THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE ISLAND AND IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS. CURRENTLY SUSTAINED TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN OFFSHORE ACROSS THE ANEGADA PASSAGE AND THE OFF SHORE ATLANTIC WATERS...BUT RESIDENTS OF THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO SHOULD MONITOR THIS CLOSELY AS ANY INCREASE IN THE INTENSITY THIS MORNING OR A MORE WESTWARD TRACK COULD BRING THE STORM CLOSER TO THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO...AND MORE SIGNIFICANT WIND IMPACTS. ...INLAND FLOODING... SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE OUTER WESTERN FRINGES OF TROPICAL STORM CHRIS SHOULD BEGIN THIS MORNING ACROSS THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS...CULEBRA AND VIEQUES...AND OVER THE EASTERN SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO BY MID MORNING. HEAVY RAINS ARE THEN LIKELY AS THE CENTER OF THE STORM PASSES TO THE NORTH THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO. THERE IS A SIGNIFICANT RISK FOR TORRENTIAL RAINFALL AND FLOODING LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AND COULD CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY BEHIND THE EXITING STORM AS LOW LEVEL WINDS SHIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST. RAINFALL TOTALS OF THREE TO SIX INCHES ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST INTERIOR SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO AND THE NORTHERN SLOPES OF THE ISLAND. RIVERS ACROSS PUERTO RICO COULD EXPERIENCE RAPID RISES WITH SOME RIVERS EXCEEDING BANKFULL LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY. ...MARINE IMPACTS... SMALL CRAFT SHOULD PLAN TO REMAIN IN PORT THROUGH THURSDAY. SEAS WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE LOCAL ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS AND THROUGH THE ANEGADA PASSAGE THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY... AND WILL LIKELY REACH 10 TO 15 FEET WITHIN 50 MILES OF THE CENTER OF CHRIS. HIGH SURF ADVISORIES AND COASTAL FLOOD WATCHES ARE LIKELY TO BE ISSUED EARLY THIS MORNING FOR THE NORTHERN U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND NORTH COAST OF PUERTO RICO. ROUGH AND CONFUSED SURF AND VERY STRONG RIP CURRENTS WILL BE SEEN ACROSS THE WATERS OF THE VIRGIN ISLANDS WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY 5:30 AM AST BY YOUR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE IN SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO. $$ EM ** WTPQ20 BABJ 020600 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TY PRAPIROON 0606 (0606) INITIAL TIME 020600 UTC 00HR 19.0N 114.6E 975HPA 33M/S 30KTS 400KM 50KTS 100KM P12HR WNW 15KM/H P+24HR 20.4N 111.9E 960HPA 40M/S P+48HR 21.3N 110.3E 970HPA 35M/S P+72HR 22.2N 108.7E 975HPA 33M/S= ** WTJP21 RJTD 020600 *** WARNING 020600. WARNING VALID 030600. WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS. TYPHOON WARNING. SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 0606 PRAPIROON (0606) 975 HPA AT 18.9N 114.8E SOUTH CHINA SEA MOVING NORTHWEST 07 KNOTS. POSITION FAIR. MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 45 MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 200 MILES. FORECAST POSITION FOR 030600UTC AT 20.1N 111.4E WITH 80 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 960 HPA, MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. FORECAST POSITION FOR 040600UTC AT 21.5N 109.3E WITH 150 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 970 HPA, MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. FORECAST POSITION FOR 050600UTC AT 22.2N 107.7E WITH 220 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 985 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 020600 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME STS 0606 PRAPIROON (0606) ANALYSIS PSTN 020600UTC 18.9N 114.8E FAIR MOVE NW 07KT PRES 975HPA MXWD 060KT 50KT 45NM 30KT 200NM FORECAST 24HF 030600UTC 20.1N 111.4E 80NM 70% MOVE WNW 08KT PRES 960HPA MXWD 075KT 48HF 040600UTC 21.5N 109.3E 150NM 70% MOVE WNW 06KT PRES 970HPA MXWD 065KT 72HF 050600UTC 22.2N 107.7E 220NM 70% MOVE WNW SLOWLY PRES 985HPA MXWD 050KT = ** WTCA82 TJSJ 020655 CCA *** HLSSJU PRZ001>013-VIZ001-002-AMZ710>750-020930- BULLETIN- TROPICAL STORM CHRIS LOCAL STATEMENT...CORRECTION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR 235 AM AST WED AUG 2 2006 ...TROPICAL STORM CHRIS CHRIS BRUSHING THE NORTHERNMOST LEEWARD ISLANDS... ...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO... ...NEW INFORMATION... STORM INFORMATION. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS. WINDS. INLAND FLOODING. MARINE IMPACTS. ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT RECOMMENDS ACTIONS TO BE TAKEN BY RESIDENTS AND VISITORS OF THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO. ...WATCHES/WARNINGS... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN 24 HOURS OR LESS. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 2:00 AM AST...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CHRIS WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 62.2 WEST...OR ABOUT 65 MILES EAST NORTHEAST OF ST. MAARTEN...OR ABOUT 180 MILES EAST NORTHEAST OF ST CROIX OR ABOUT 200 MILES EAST OF ST THOMAS...OR ABOUT 280 MILES EAST OF SAN JUAN. CHRIS WAS MOVING WEST NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH...WITH THIS GENERAL MOTION EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THIS TRACK... THE CENTER OF CHRIS WILL MOVE NEAR OR OVER THE NORTHERNMOST LEEWARD ISLANDS LATER THIS MORNING...AND POSSIBLY AFFECT THE VIRGIN ISLANDS THIS AFTERNOON OR EVENING. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS...AND CHRIS IS FORECAST TO BECOME A HURRICANE LATER TODAY. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... RESIDENTS AND VISITORS OF THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS PUERTO RICO SHOULD CONTINUE TO MAKE PREPARATIONS FOR TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. THE MAIN IMPACT FROM CHRIS IS EXPECTED TO BE TORRENTIAL RAINS FROM THE HEAVY RAIN BANDS AND SQUALLS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST SECTIONS OF THE STORM. ADDITIONALLY... STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS TO TROPICAL STORM FORCE AND GREATER MAY ACCOMPANY THESE SQUALLS AND RAINBANDS. MARINERS IN THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS SHOULD HAVE ALREADY PREPARED THEIR VESSELS FOR THIS STORM...AND MARINERS IN PUERTO RICO SHOULD RUSH TO READY THEIR VESSELS. ...WINDS... TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 40 MILES FROM THE CENTER OF CHRIS. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE EARLY THIS MORNING OVER THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS...WITH SUSTAINED WINDS FORECAST TO REACH 20 TO 30 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS AFTER 8 AM THIS MORNING AS TROPICAL STORM CHRIS APPROACHES THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS. BASED ON THE LATEST FORECAST TRACK THE STORM CENTER IS FORECAST TO PASS NORTH OF ST JOHN AND ST THOMAS TONIGHT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WIND IN GUSTS SHOULD BE EXPECTED AS THE RAIN BANDS AROUND THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE STORM IMPACT ST THOMAS AND ST JOHN...AND TO A LESSER EXTENT ST CROIX. WINDS WILL CHANGE TO THE SOUTHEAST ONCE THE STORM MOVES NORTHWEST OF THE VIRGIN ISLANDS LATE IN THE EVENING. WINDS OVER PUERTO RICO ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE TO 15 TO 25 MPH BY LATER THIS AFTERNOON WITH STRONGER GUSTS ALONG THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE ISLAND AND IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS. CURRENTLY SUSTAINED TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN OFFSHORE ACROSS THE ANEGADA PASSAGE AND THE OFF SHORE ATLANTIC WATERS...BUT RESIDENTS OF THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO SHOULD MONITOR THIS CLOSELY AS ANY INCREASE IN THE INTENSITY THIS MORNING OR A MORE WESTWARD TRACK COULD BRING THE STORM CLOSER TO THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO...AND MORE SIGNIFICANT WIND IMPACTS. ...INLAND FLOODING... SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE OUTER WESTERN FRINGES OF TROPICAL STORM CHRIS SHOULD BEGIN THIS MORNING ACROSS THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS...CULEBRA AND VIEQUES...AND OVER THE EASTERN SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO BY MID MORNING. HEAVY RAINS ARE THEN LIKELY AS THE CENTER OF THE STORM PASSES TO THE NORTH THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO. THERE IS A SIGNIFICANT RISK FOR TORRENTIAL RAINFALL AND FLOODING LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY...AND COULD CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY BEHIND THE EXITING STORM AS LOW LEVEL WINDS SHIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST. RAINFALL TOTALS OF THREE TO SIX INCHES ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST INTERIOR SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO AND THE NORTHERN SLOPES OF THE ISLAND. RIVERS ACROSS PUERTO RICO COULD EXPERIENCE RAPID RISES WITH SOME RIVERS EXCEEDING BANKFULL LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY. ...MARINE IMPACTS... SMALL CRAFT SHOULD PLAN TO REMAIN IN PORT THROUGH THURSDAY. SEAS WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE LOCAL ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS AND THROUGH THE ANEGADA PASSAGE THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY... AND WILL LIKELY REACH 10 TO 15 FEET WITHIN 50 MILES OF THE CENTER OF CHRIS. HIGH SURF ADVISORIES AND COASTAL FLOOD WATCHES ARE LIKELY TO BE ISSUED EARLY THIS MORNING FOR THE NORTHERN U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND NORTH COAST OF PUERTO RICO. ROUGH AND CONFUSED SURF AND VERY STRONG RIP CURRENTS WILL BE SEEN ACROSS THE WATERS OF THE VIRGIN ISLANDS TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY 5:30 AM AST BY YOUR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE IN SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO. $$ EM ** WTNT83 KNHC 020700 *** TCVAT3 CHRIS WATCH/WARNING BREAKPOINTS/INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 6A NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032006 200 AM AST WED AUG 2 2006 .TROPICAL STORM CHRIS PRC001-003-005-007-009-011-013-015-017-019-021-023-025-027-029- 031-033-035-037-039-041-043-045-047-049-051-053-054-055-057-059- 061-063-065-067-069-071-073-075-077-079-081-083-085-087-089-091- 093-095-097-099-101-103-105-107-109-111-113-115-117-119-121-123- 125-127-129-131-133-135-137-139-141-143-145-147-149-151-153- VIC010-020-030-020900- /E.CON.KNHC.TR.W.1003.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ 200 AM AST WED AUG 2 2006 PUERTO-RICO-ALL 18.20N 66.45W VIRGIN-IS.-(U.S.) 18.05N 64.80W $$ ATTN...WFO...SJU... ** WTIN20 DEMS 020700 *** TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK ------------------------ DEMS -RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONES NEW DELHI 02-08-2006(.) TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NORTH INDIAN OCEAN (THE BAY OF BENGAL AND THE ARABIAN SEA ) VALID FOR NEXT 24 HOURS ISSUED AT 0600 UTC (.) SUB: DEPRESSION OVER BAY OF BENGAL A DEPRESSION HAS FORMED OVER NORTHWEST BAY OF BENGAL AND LAY CENTRED AT 0830 IST OF TODAY,THE 2ND AUGUST 2006 NEAR LAT.20.5 DEG.N AND LONG.87.5 DEG.E,ABOUT 100 KM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF CHANDBALI.THE SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO MOVE IN A WEST-NORTHWESTERLY DIRECTION AND CROSS NORTH ORISSA COAST BETWEEN PARADIP AND BALASORE BY TONIGHT/EARLY MORNING OF TOMORROW. BROKEN INTENSE TO VERY INTENSE CONVECTIVE CLOUDS ARE SEEN OVER NORTHWEST AND ADJOINING WEST CENTRAL BAY OF BENGAL IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS SYSTEM. MSG OVER ????/ ** WTPQ30 RJTD 020600 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING REASONING NO. 4 FOR STS 0606 PRAPIROON (0606) 1.GENERAL COMMENTS REASONING OF PROGNOSIS THIS TIME IS SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS ONE. POSITION FORECAST IS MAINLY BASED ON NWP AND PERSISTENCY. 2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION NOTHING PARTICULAR TO EXPLAIN. 3.MOTION FORECAST POSITION ACCURACY AT 020600 UTC IS FAIR. STS WILL MOVE AT THE SAME SPEED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. STS WILL MOVE WEST-NORTHWEST FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. 4.INTENSITY FORECAST STS WILL BE GRADED UP TO TY WITHIN 18 HOURS. STS WILL DEVELOP BECAUSE SPIRAL CLOUD BANDS HAVE BECOME WELL ORGANIZED. FI-NUMBER WILL BE 4.5 AFTER 24 HOURS.= ** WTKO20 RKSL 020600 *** KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 3 NAME STS 0606 PRAPIROON ANALYSIS POSITION 020600UTC 18.9N 114.8E MOVEMENT NW 7KT PRES/VMAX 975HPA 58KT FORECAST 24HR POSITION 030600UTC 20.2N 111.9E WITHIN 80NM PRES/VMAX 965HPA 68KT 48HR POSITION 040600UTC 21.3N 109.5E WITHIN 135NM PRES/VMAX 975HPA 58KT 72HR POSITION 050600UTC 22.3N 107.7E WITHIN 215NM PRES/VMAX 985HPA 49KT KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION. ** WTPQ20 BABJ 020700 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TY PRAPIROON 0606 (0606) INITIAL TIME 020700 UTC 00HR 19.1N 114.5E 975HPA 33M/S 30KTS 400KM 50KTS 100KM P12HR WNW 15KM/H= ** WTSS20 VHHH 020745 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING SEVERE TROPICAL STORM PRAPIROON (0606) HAS INTENSIFIED INTO A TYPHOON WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 970 HECTOPASCALS. AT 020600 UTC, IT WAS CENTRED WITHIN 30 NAUTICAL MILES OF ONE EIGHT POINT EIGHT DEGREES NORTH (18.8 N) ONE ONE FOUR POINT SEVEN DEGREES EAST (114.7 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE WEST-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 7 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 65 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 210 NAUTICAL MILES OVER SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE, 180 NAUTICAL MILES ELSEWHERE. RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 60 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 63 KNOT WINDS 30 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 270 NAUTICAL MILES OVER SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE, 210 NAUTICAL MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 030600 UTC ONE NINE POINT EIGHT DEGREES NORTH (19.8 N) ONE ONE TWO POINT ZERO DEGREES EAST (112.0 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 70 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 040600 UTC TWO ZERO POINT SIX DEGREES NORTH (20.6 N) ONE ONE ZERO POINT TWO DEGREES EAST (110.2 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 65 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 050600 UTC TWO TWO POINT FOUR DEGREES NORTH (22.4 N) ONE ZERO EIGHT POINT FIVE DEGREES EAST (108.5 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 60 KNOTS. ** WTSS20 VHHH 020745 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING SEVERE TROPICAL STORM PRAPIROON (0606) HAS INTENSIFIED INTO A TYPHOON WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 970 HECTOPASCALS. AT 020600 UTC, IT WAS CENTRED WITHIN 30 NAUTICAL MILES OF ONE EIGHT POINT EIGHT DEGREES NORTH (18.8 N) ONE ONE FOUR POINT SEVEN DEGREES EAST (114.7 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE WEST-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 7 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 65 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 210 NAUTICAL MILES OVER SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE, 180 NAUTICAL MILES ELSEWHERE. RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 60 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 63 KNOT WINDS 30 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 270 NAUTICAL MILES OVER SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE, 210 NAUTICAL MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 030600 UTC ONE NINE POINT EIGHT DEGREES NORTH (19.8 N) ONE ONE TWO POINT ZERO DEGREES EAST (112.0 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 70 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 040600 UTC TWO ZERO POINT SIX DEGREES NORTH (20.6 N) ONE ONE ZERO POINT TWO DEGREES EAST (110.2 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 65 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 050600 UTC TWO TWO POINT FOUR DEGREES NORTH (22.4 N) ONE ZERO EIGHT POINT FIVE DEGREES EAST (108.5 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 60 KNOTS. ** WTPQ20 BABJ 020800 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TY PRAPIROON 0606 (0606) INITIAL TIME 020800 UTC 00HR 19.2N 114.3E 975HPA 33M/S 30KTS 400KM 50KTS 100KM P12HR WNW 15KM/H= ** WTNT33 KNHC 020828 *** TCPAT3 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM CHRIS ADVISORY NUMBER 7 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032006 500 AM AST WED AUG 02 2006 ...CHRIS GETTING BETTER ORGANIZED AS IT SKIRTS THE NORTHERNMOST LEEWARD ISLANDS... ...ADDITIONAL TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS DISCONTINUED... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ISLANDS OF ANGUILLA...ST. BARTHELEMY...ST. MARTIN...AND ST. MAARTEN...AND ALSO FOR PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. AND BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AT 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF ANTIGUA HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR ANTIGUA...BARBUDA... ST. KITTS...AND NEVIS. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 500 AM AST...0900Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CHRIS WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 62.6 WEST OR ABOUT 60 MILES... 95 KM...NORTHEAST OF ST. MARTIN. CHRIS IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/HR... AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF CHRIS WILL NORTH OF THE NORTHERNMOST LEEWARD ISLANDS LATER THIS MORNING...AND REMAIN NORTH OF THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HOWEVER...SOME OF THE STRONG RAIN BANDS ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF CHRIS MAY AFFECT PUERTO RICO AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS LATER TONIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS... AND CHRIS COULD BECOME A HURRICANE LATER TODAY OR EARLY THURSDAY. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 75 MILES...120 KM ...MAINLY NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1001 MB...29.56 INCHES. CHRIS IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES OVER THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS...THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS ...AND PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 8 INCHES POSSIBLE OVER HIGHER TERRAIN THROUGH THURSDAY. REPEATING THE 500 AM AST POSITION...18.8 N...62.6 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB. AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 800 AM AST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1100 AM AST. $$ FORECASTER STEWART ** WTNT23 KNHC 020828 *** TCMAT3 TROPICAL STORM CHRIS FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032006 0900 UTC WED AUG 02 2006 A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ISLANDS OF ANGUILLA...ST. BARTHELEMY...ST. MARTIN...AND ST. MAARTEN...AND ALSO FOR PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. AND BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AT 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF ANTIGUA HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR ANTIGUA...BARBUDA... ST. KITTS...AND NEVIS. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.8N 62.6W AT 02/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1001 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. 50 KT....... 20NE 15SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT....... 65NE 50SE 25SW 35NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 70NE 60SE 40SW 50NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.8N 62.6W AT 02/0900Z AT 02/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.5N 62.2W FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 19.4N 64.0W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 25NE 25SE 10SW 15NW. 34 KT... 70NE 60SE 30SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 20.0N 65.8W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 25NE 25SE 15SW 20NW. 34 KT... 70NE 60SE 40SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 20.6N 67.6W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 10NE 10SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 25NW. 34 KT... 80NE 70SE 50SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 21.2N 69.5W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 70SE 50SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 22.2N 73.5W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 25SW 35NW. 34 KT... 80NE 70SE 50SW 70NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 06/0600Z 23.3N 77.5W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 07/0600Z 24.5N 82.5W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.8N 62.6W NEXT ADVISORY AT 02/1500Z $$ FORECASTER STEWART ** WTNT83 KNHC 020839 *** TCVAT3 CHRIS WATCH/WARNING BREAKPOINTS/ADVISORY NUMBER 7 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032006 500 AM AST WED AUG 2 2006 .TROPICAL STORM CHRIS PRC001-003-005-007-009-011-013-015-017-019-021-023-025-027-029- 031-033-035-037-039-041-043-045-047-049-051-053-054-055-057-059- 061-063-065-067-069-071-073-075-077-079-081-083-085-087-089-091- 093-095-097-099-101-103-105-107-109-111-113-115-117-119-121-123- 125-127-129-131-133-135-137-139-141-143-145-147-149-151-153- VIC010-020-030-021500- /E.CON.KNHC.TR.W.1003.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ 500 AM AST WED AUG 2 2006 PUERTO-RICO-ALL 18.20N 66.45W VIRGIN-IS.-(U.S.) 18.05N 64.80W $$ ATTN...WFO...SJU... ** WTPZ23 KNHC 020844 *** TCMEP3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION GILMA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082006 0900 UTC WED AUG 02 2006 TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.6N 106.0W AT 02/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 4 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. 12 FT SEAS.. 0NE 0SE 60SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.6N 106.0W AT 02/0900Z AT 02/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.6N 105.9W FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 15.2N 106.9W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 15.7N 108.2W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 16.1N 109.8W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 16.6N 111.4W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 17.5N 114.0W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 06/0600Z 19.0N 116.5W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 07/0600Z 20.5N 119.5W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.6N 106.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 02/1500Z $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN/STEWART ** WTPZ22 KNHC 020846 *** TCMEP2 TROPICAL STORM FABIO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072006 0900 UTC WED AUG 02 2006 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.7N 129.5W AT 02/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 13 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT....... 50NE 30SE 30SW 60NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 50NE 30SE 30SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.7N 129.5W AT 02/0900Z AT 02/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.7N 128.8W FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 14.9N 131.5W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 15.2N 134.4W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 15.5N 137.1W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 45NE 25SE 25SW 45NW. FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 15.7N 140.0W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 45NE 25SE 25SW 45NW. FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 16.0N 145.5W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 45NE 25SE 25SW 45NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 06/0600Z 16.0N 150.5W...REMNANT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 07/0600Z 16.0N 155.0W...REMNANT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.7N 129.5W NEXT ADVISORY AT 02/1500Z $$ FORECASTER MAINELLI/STEWART ** WTCA43 TJSJ 020847 *** TCPSP3 BOLETIN TORMENTA TROPICAL CHRIS ADVERTENCIA INTERMEDIA NUMERO 6A NWS TCP/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL AL032006 5 AM AST MIERCOLES 2 DE AGOSTO DE 2006 ...CHRIS SE ORGANIZA MEJOR MIENTRAS BORDEA LAS ISLAS NORTE DE SOTAVENTO... ...AVISOS ADICIONALES DE TORMENTA TROPICAL HA SIDO DESCONTINUADOS... EN EFECTO UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL PARA LAS ISLAS DE ANGUILLA...ST. BARTHELEMY...ST MARTIN...Y ST. MAARTEN...Y PARA PUERTO RICO Y LAS ISLAS VIRGENES AMERICANAS Y BRITANICAS. UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SIGNIFICA QUE SE ESPERAN CONDICIONES DE TORMENTA TROPICAL DENTRO DEL AREA DEL AVISO DENTRO DE LAS PROXIMAS 12 A 24 HORAS. A LAS 5 AM AST...0900 UCT...EL GOBIERNO DE ANTIGUA ...HA DESCONTINUADO EL AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL PARA ANTIGUA ...BARBUDA...ST. KITTS...Y NEVIS. PARA INFORMACION ESPECIFICA PARA SU AREA...INCLUYENDO POSIBLES VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS PARA AREAS TERRESTRES...FAVOR DE REFERIRSE A LOS PRODUCTOS EMITIDOS POR SU OFICINA METEOROLOGICA LOCAL. A LAS 5 AM AST...0900Z...EL CENTRO DE LA TORMENTA TROPICAL CHRIS ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 18.8 NORTE...LONGITUD 62.6 OESTE O COMO A 60 MILLAS...95 KM...AL NORESTE DE ST. MARTIN. CHRIS SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL OESTE NOROESTE A CERCA DE 10 MPH...17 KILOMETROS POR HORA...Y SE PRONOSTICA QUE ESTE MOVIMIENTO GENERAL CONTINUARA DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS... EN LA TRAYECTORIA..CHRIS ESTARA PASANDO AL NORTE DE LAS ISLAS DE SOTAVENTO DEL NORTE MAS TARDE ESTA MANANA...PERMANECIENDO AL NORTE DE LAS ISLAS VIRGENES Y PUERTO RICO ESTA TARDE Y ANOCHECER. SIN EMBARGO...ALGUNAS DE LAS FUERTES BANDAS DE LLUVIA DEL LADO SUR DE CRIS PODRIAN AFECTAR PUERTO RICO Y LAS ISLAS VIRGENES MAS TARDE ESTA NOCHE Y TEMPRANO EN EL JUEVES. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS ESTAN EN CERCA DE 60 MPH...95 KM/HR...CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. SE PRONOSTICA ALGUN FORTALECIMIENTO ADICIONAL DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. Y CRIS PODRIA CONVERTIRSE EN HURACAN MAS TARDE DURANTE EL DIA DE HOY O TEMPRANO EN EL JUEVES. LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SE EXTIENDEN HACIA AFUERA HASTA 75 MILLAS...120 KILOMETROS FUERA DEL CENTRO. LA PRESION MINIMA CENTRAL SE ESTIMA EN 1001 MILIBARAS ...29.56 PULGADAS. SE ESPERA QUE CHRIS PRODUZCA TOTALES DE LLUVIA DE 3 A 5 PULGADAS SOBRE LAS ISLAS NORTE DE LAS ISLAS DE SOTAVENTO...LAS ISLAS VIRGENES AMERICANAS Y PORCIONES DE PUERTO RICO...CON CANTIDADES AISLADAS MAXIMAS DE 8 PULGADAS POSIBLES SOBRE TERRENO MAS ALTO HASTA EL JUEVES. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 5 AM AST...18.8 NORTE...62.6 OESTE. SE MUEVE AL...OESTE NOROESTE A CERCA DE 10 MPH. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS...60 MPH. LA PRESION MINIMA CENTRAL...1001 MILIBARAS. LA PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 5 AM AST $$ PRONOTICADOR STEWART ** WTPZ42 KNHC 020852 *** TCDEP2 TROPICAL STORM FABIO DISCUSSION NUMBER 7 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072006 200 AM PDT WED AUG 02 2006 CONVENTIONAL INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED A BIT...AND A CIRCULAR SHAPED CONVECTIVE PATTERN PERSISTS. THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION REMAINS ALONG THE SOUTHERN SIDE OF THE CONVECTION...AS DEPICTED BY RECENT PASSIVE MICROWAVE IMAGERY FROM BOTH TRMM AND SSMI. DVORAK T-NUMBERS REMAIN 3.0 OR 45 KT FROM BOTH SAB AND TAFB...AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT 45 KT AS WELL. SOUTHEASTERLY SHEAR IS CURRENTLY AFFECTING THE STORM...AND THIS INHIBITING FACTOR IS FORECAST TO REMAIN RELATIVELY CONSTANT FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS. AFTER WHICH...THE SHEAR IS FORECAST TO INCREASE AND THE CYCLONE SHOULD ENCOUNTER AN UNFAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY WITH GRADUAL WEAKENING EXPECTED TO A REMNANT LOW BY DAYS 4 AND 5. THE INITIAL MOTION IS 275/13. A STRONG DEEP LAYER RIDGE ANCHORED TO THE NORTH OF FABIO SHOULD STEER THE CYCLONE ON A GENERAL WESTWARD TRACK THROUGH MUCH OF THE FORECAST. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS VIRTUALLY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK AND FOLLOWS THE THE FSU SUPERENSEMBLE AND GFDL GUIDANCE CLOSELY. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 02/0900Z 14.7N 129.5W 45 KT 12HR VT 02/1800Z 14.9N 131.5W 45 KT 24HR VT 03/0600Z 15.2N 134.4W 45 KT 36HR VT 03/1800Z 15.5N 137.1W 40 KT 48HR VT 04/0600Z 15.7N 140.0W 40 KT 72HR VT 05/0600Z 16.0N 145.5W 35 KT 96HR VT 06/0600Z 16.0N 150.5W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW 120HR VT 07/0600Z 16.0N 155.0W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW $$ FORECASTER MAINELLI/STEWART ** WTPZ43 KNHC 020854 *** TCDEP3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION GILMA DISCUSSION NUMBER 6 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082006 200 AM PDT WED AUG 02 2006 EASTERLY SHEAR HAS TAKEN A TOLL ON GILMA...AS THE CONVECTION WEST OF THE CENTER HAS LARGELY DISSIPATED LEAVING BEHIND A WELL-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CLEARLY SEEN IN SHORTWAVE INFRARED AND MICROWAVE IMAGERY. DATA-T NUMBERS OF 2.0 FROM TAFB AND SAB AND 1.0 FROM AFWA COMBINED WITH THE LACK CONVECTION RESULT IN GILMA BEING DOWNGRADED TO A DEPRESSION. THE SHIPS MODEL INDICATES THAT EASTERLY SHEAR WILL INCREASE IN THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS GILMA MOVES INTO A DRIER ENVIRONMENT...AND BOTH OF THESE FACTORS ARGUE AGAINST RESTRENGTHENING IN THE SHORT TERM. HOWEVER...A QUICK BURST OF CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER COULD QUICKLY BRING GILMA BACK TO TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH AT ANY TIME SINCE THE CIRCULATION REMAINS WELL DEFINED. LATER IN THE PERIOD...THE SHEAR IS FORECAST TO RELAX...HOWEVER THE ENVIRONMENT REMAINS DRY AND SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES DECREASE TO MARGINAL VALUES. THEREFORE THE INTENSITY IS HELD AT 30 KT FOR THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE SIX-HOUR MEAN MOTION IS AROUND 315/04...HOWEVER GILMA APPEARS TO HAVE NEARLY STALLED IN THE LAST COUPLE OF HOURS AS THE IMPACT OF THE DEEP EASTERLY SHEAR ON THE NOW SHALLOW CIRCULATION HAS DECREASED. THE FORECAST TRACK IS SLIGHTLY TO THE RIGHT AND SLOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST THROUGH 96 HOURS. THIS IS DUE TO THE SLOWER AND MORE NORTHWARD INITIAL MOTION OF GILMA IN THE PAST FEW HOURS. THE UKMET...NOGAPS AND GFDL MODELS SHOW A STRONGER GILMA RECURVING INTO THE UPPER TROUGH/CLOSED LOW DIGGING SOUTH OFF THE WEST COAST. THE GFS...GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN AND ECMWF SHOW THE TROUGH BYPASSING GILMA... AND THIS SCENARIO IS PREFERRED WITH A WEAKER AND MORE SHALLOW CYCLONE. THE DAY FIVE POSITION HAS BEEN ADJUSTED TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 02/0900Z 14.6N 106.0W 30 KT 12HR VT 02/1800Z 15.2N 106.9W 30 KT 24HR VT 03/0600Z 15.7N 108.2W 30 KT 36HR VT 03/1800Z 16.1N 109.8W 30 KT 48HR VT 04/0600Z 16.6N 111.4W 30 KT 72HR VT 05/0600Z 17.5N 114.0W 30 KT 96HR VT 06/0600Z 19.0N 116.5W 30 KT 120HR VT 07/0600Z 20.5N 119.5W 30 KT $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN/STEWART ** WTCA43 TJSJ 020855 CCA *** TCPSP3 BOLETIN TORMENTA TROPICAL CHRIS ADVERTENCIA INTERMEDIA NUMERO 6A NWS TCP/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL AL032006 5 AM AST MIERCOLES 2 DE AGOSTO DE 2006 ...CHRIS SE ORGANIZA MEJOR MIENTRAS BORDEA LAS ISLAS NORTE DE SOTAVENTO... ...AVISOS ADICIONALES DE TORMENTA TROPICAL HA SIDO DESCONTINUADOS... EN EFECTO UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL PARA LAS ISLAS DE ANGUILLA...ST. BARTHELEMY...ST MARTIN...Y ST. MAARTEN...Y PARA PUERTO RICO Y LAS ISLAS VIRGENES AMERICANAS Y BRITANICAS. UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SIGNIFICA QUE SE ESPERAN CONDICIONES DE TORMENTA TROPICAL DENTRO DEL AREA DEL AVISO DENTRO DE LAS PROXIMAS 12 A 24 HORAS. A LAS 5 AM AST...0900 UCT...EL GOBIERNO DE ANTIGUA ...HA DESCONTINUADO EL AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL PARA ANTIGUA ...BARBUDA...ST. KITTS...Y NEVIS. PARA INFORMACION ESPECIFICA PARA SU AREA...INCLUYENDO POSIBLES VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS PARA AREAS TERRESTRES...FAVOR DE REFERIRSE A LOS PRODUCTOS EMITIDOS POR SU OFICINA METEOROLOGICA LOCAL. A LAS 5 AM AST...0900Z...EL CENTRO DE LA TORMENTA TROPICAL CHRIS ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 18.8 NORTE...LONGITUD 62.6 OESTE O COMO A 60 MILLAS...95 KM...AL NORESTE DE ST. MARTIN. CHRIS SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL OESTE NOROESTE A CERCA DE 10 MPH...17 KILOMETROS POR HORA...Y SE PRONOSTICA QUE ESTE MOVIMIENTO GENERAL CONTINUARA DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS... EN LA TRAYECTORIA..CHRIS ESTARA PASANDO AL NORTE DE LAS ISLAS DE SOTAVENTO DEL NORTE MAS TARDE ESTA MANANA...PERMANECIENDO AL NORTE DE LAS ISLAS VIRGENES Y PUERTO RICO ESTA TARDE Y ANOCHECER. SIN EMBARGO...ALGUNAS DE LAS FUERTES BANDAS DE LLUVIA DEL LADO SUR DE CRIS PODRIAN AFECTAR PUERTO RICO Y LAS ISLAS VIRGENES MAS TARDE ESTA NOCHE Y TEMPRANO EN EL JUEVES. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS ESTAN EN CERCA DE 60 MPH...95 KM/HR...CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. SE PRONOSTICA ALGUN FORTALECIMIENTO ADICIONAL DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. Y CRIS PODRIA CONVERTIRSE EN HURACAN MAS TARDE DURANTE EL DIA DE HOY O TEMPRANO EN EL JUEVES. LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SE EXTIENDEN HACIA AFUERA HASTA 75 MILLAS...120 KILOMETROS FUERA DEL CENTRO. LA PRESION MINIMA CENTRAL SE ESTIMA EN 1001 MILIBARAS ...29.56 PULGADAS. SE ESPERA QUE CHRIS PRODUZCA TOTALES DE LLUVIA DE 3 A 5 PULGADAS SOBRE LAS ISLAS NORTE DE LAS ISLAS DE SOTAVENTO...LAS ISLAS VIRGENES AMERICANAS Y PORCIONES DE PUERTO RICO...CON CANTIDADES AISLADAS MAXIMAS DE 8 PULGADAS POSIBLES SOBRE TERRENO MAS ALTO HASTA EL JUEVES. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 5 AM AST...18.8 NORTE...62.6 OESTE. SE MUEVE AL...OESTE NOROESTE A CERCA DE 10 MPH. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS...60 MPH. LA PRESION MINIMA CENTRAL...1001 MILIBARAS. UNA ADVERTENCIA INTERMEDIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 8 AM AST SEGUIDO POR LA PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA COMPLETA A LAS 11EMITIDA 5 AM AST. $$ PRONOTICADOR STEWART ** WTNT43 KNHC 020858 *** TCDAT3 TROPICAL STORM CHRIS DISCUSSION NUMBER 7 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032006 500 AM EDT WED AUG 02 2006 AIR FORCE RESERVE RECON POSITION AND WIND DATA THIS MORNING...ALONG WITH NOAA DOPPLER RADAR DATA FROM SAN JUAN AND SATELLITE IMAGERY... INDICATE CHRIS HAS BECOME MUCH BETTER ORGANIZED DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS. AN UPPER-LEVEL EYE FEATURE HAS BECOME APPARENT IN RADAR IMAGERY...ALTHOUGH IT IS TILTED ABOUT 12 NMI TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER. WHILE THE STRUCTURE OF CHRIS HAS IMRPOVED... THIS HAS NOT TRANSLATED INTO AN INCREASE IN INTENSITY...YET. A PASS THROUGH THE CENTER OF CHRIS AROUND 0745Z REVEALED AN ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 1001 MB AND AN 850 MB FLIGHT-LEVEL WIND OF 62 KT. WHILE THE PRESSURE IS DOWN 2 MB FORM EARLIER FLIGHTS...THE FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS STILL YIELD ONLY A 50-KT SURFACE WIND. UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW HAS IMPROVED IN ALL QUADRANTS...AND THE OVERALL CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE AS BECOME MORE SYMMETRICAL. THE MOTION ESTIMATE IS 300/09 KT...ALTHOUGH THE SHORT TERM MOTION FROM THE LAST SEVERAL RECON FIXES YIELDS A MOTION OF 310/11. OVERALL...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE STRENGTH AND POSITION OF THE BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF CHRIS IS FORECAST BY THE GLOBAL MODELS. THE RIDGE AXIS CURRENTLY EXTENDS WESTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. AND INTO THE U.S. CENTRAL PLAINS...AND IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN ROUGHLY THAT POSITION THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. THERE ARE SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES NOW IN HOW THE MODELS HANDLE THE STRENGTH OF CHRIS. UNLIKE PREVIOUS RUNS OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS...MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS...ESPECIALLY NOGAPS...NOW HANG ONTO CHRIS AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE...ALBEIT A SMALL COMPACT ONE. THE GFS...GFS ENSEMBLE...NOGAPS...AND UKMET MODELS HAVE MADE A SIGNIFICANT NORTHWARD SHIFT AND ARE NOW ON THE RIGHT SIDE OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE ENVELOPE. THE CANADIAN AND ECMWF MODELS HAVE ALSO SHIFTED NORTHWARD AND NO LONGER TAKE CHRIS ACROSS THE GREATER ANTILLES. THE LONE OUTLIER MODEL APPEARS TO BE THE GFDL...WHICH ALMOST IMMEDIATELY TAKES CHRIS DUE WEST ACROSS THE NORTH COAST OF PUERTO RICO AND INTO HISPANIOLA. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS A LITTLE NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK...AND MUCH FARTHER NORTH THAN THE MODEL CONSENSUS DUE TO THE GFDL MODEL BEING A LARGE OUTLIER. IT SHOULD BE POINTED OUT THAT THE GFS...GFS ENSEMBLE...UKMET...AND NOGAPS CONSENSUS FORECAST PLACES CHRIS VERY NEAR THE SOUTHERN TIP OF FLORIDA IN 120 HOURS...AND SUBSEQUENT FORECAST TRACKS MAY HAVE TO SHIFTED A LITTLE FARTHER NORTH IF THOSE MODEL TRENDS CONTINUE. THE INTENSITY FORECAST REMAINS PROBLEMATIC. THE GFS-BASED SHIPS INTENSITY MODEL INDICATES THE VERTICAL SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN TO LESS THAN 5-10 KT BY 96 AND 120 HOURS...YET SHOWS LITTLE INTENSIFICATION AND BARELY MAKES CHRIS A HURRICANE...EVEN THOUGH THE CYCLONE WILL BE OVER 29.5C TO 30C SSTS AND BETWEEN TWO UPPER-LEVEL LOWS THAT WILL ENHANCE THE OUTFLOW TO THE WEST AND EAST. GIVEN THAT CHRIS IS A SMALL TROPICAL CYCLONE...WHICH MEANS IT CAN SPIN UP QUICKLY BUT ALSO SPIN DOWN JUST AS QUICKLY...THE INTENSITY FORECAST WILL REMAIN ON THE CONSERVATIVE SIDE AT THIS TIME IN HE LONGER TIME PERIODS...BUT STILL ABOVE THE SHIPS MODEL. TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR PUERTO RICO AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS DUE TO THE POSSIBILITY OF A STRONG RAIN BAND DEVELOPING ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF CHRIS AND MOVING OVER THOSE AREAS LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 02/0900Z 18.8N 62.6W 50 KT 12HR VT 02/1800Z 19.4N 64.0W 55 KT 24HR VT 03/0600Z 20.0N 65.8W 60 KT 36HR VT 03/1800Z 20.6N 67.6W 65 KT 48HR VT 04/0600Z 21.2N 69.5W 65 KT 72HR VT 05/0600Z 22.2N 73.5W 65 KT 96HR VT 06/0600Z 23.3N 77.5W 70 KT 120HR VT 07/0600Z 24.5N 82.5W 70 KT $$ FORECASTER STEWART ** WTPN31 PGTW 020900 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TYPHOON 07W (PRAPIROON) WARNING NR 010 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 020600Z --- NEAR 18.9N 114.7E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 315 DEGREES AT 08 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 18.9N 114.7E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 021800Z --- 19.7N 113.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 030600Z --- 20.3N 111.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 031800Z --- 20.8N 110.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 06 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 040600Z --- 21.4N 109.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 050600Z --- 22.2N 107.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 04 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 060600Z --- 22.6N 106.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 070600Z --- 23.0N 104.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 015 KT, GUSTS 025 KT DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 020900Z POSITION NEAR 19.1N 114.4E. TYPHOON (TY) 07W (PRAPIROON), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 205 NM SOUTH OF HONG KONG, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 020600Z IS 23 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 021500Z, 022100Z, 030300Z AND 030900Z.// ** WTNT33 KNHC 020922 *** TCPAT3 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM CHRIS ADVISORY NUMBER 7...CORRECTED NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032006 500 AM AST WED AUG 02 2006 CORRECTED STORM MOTION SECTION ...CHRIS GETTING BETTER ORGANIZED AS IT SKIRTS THE NORTHERNMOST LEEWARD ISLANDS... ...ADDITIONAL TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS DISCONTINUED... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ISLANDS OF ANGUILLA...ST. BARTHELEMY...ST. MARTIN...AND ST. MAARTEN...AND ALSO FOR PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. AND BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AT 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF ANTIGUA HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR ANTIGUA...BARBUDA... ST. KITTS...AND NEVIS. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 500 AM AST...0900Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CHRIS WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 62.6 WEST OR ABOUT 60 MILES... 95 KM...NORTHEAST OF ST. MARTIN. CHRIS IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/HR... AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF CHRIS WILL PASS NORTH OF THE NORTHERNMOST LEEWARD ISLANDS LATER THIS MORNING...AND REMAIN NORTH OF THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HOWEVER...SOME OF THE STRONG RAIN BANDS ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF CHRIS MAY AFFECT PUERTO RICO AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS LATER TONIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS... AND CHRIS COULD BECOME A HURRICANE LATER TODAY OR EARLY THURSDAY. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 75 MILES...120 KM ...MAINLY NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1001 MB...29.56 INCHES. CHRIS IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES OVER THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS...THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS ...AND PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 8 INCHES POSSIBLE OVER HIGHER TERRAIN THROUGH THURSDAY. REPEATING THE 500 AM AST POSITION...18.8 N...62.6 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB. AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 800 AM AST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1100 AM AST. $$ FORECASTER STEWART ** WTPQ20 BABJ 020900 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TY PRAPIROON 0606 (0606) INITIAL TIME 020900 UTC 00HR 19.3N 114.1E 975HPA 33M/S 30KTS 400KM 50KTS 100KM P12HR WNW 15KM/H P+24HR 20.9N 111.3E 960HPA 40M/S P+48HR 22.1N 109.7E 975HPA 33M/S P+72HR 23.4N 108.5E 980HPA 30M/S= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 020900 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME STS 0606 PRAPIROON (0606) ANALYSIS PSTN 020900UTC 19.1N 114.2E FAIR MOVE WNW 09KT PRES 970HPA MXWD 060KT 50KT 45NM 30KT 200NM FORECAST 24HF 030900UTC 20.2N 111.0E 80NM 70% MOVE WNW 08KT PRES 960HPA MXWD 075KT 45HF 040600UTC 21.5N 109.3E 150NM 70% MOVE WNW 06KT PRES 970HPA MXWD 065KT 69HF 050600UTC 22.2N 107.7E 220NM 70% MOVE WNW SLOWLY PRES 985HPA MXWD 050KT = ** WTJP31 RJTD 020900 *** WARNING 020900. WARNING VALID 030900. TYPHOON WARNING. SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 0606 PRAPIROON (0606) 970 HPA AT 19.1N 114.2E SOUTH CHINA SEA MOVING WESTNORTHWEST 09 KNOTS. POSITION FAIR. MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 45 MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 200 MILES. FORECAST POSITION FOR 030900UTC AT 20.2N 111.0E WITH 80 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 960 HPA, MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPN31 PHNC 021000 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// REF/A/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN/PEARL HARBOR HI/020935AUG2006// AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL STORM 07E (FABIO) WARNING NR 007 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 020600Z --- NEAR 14.7N 128.8W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 275 DEGREES AT 13 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 14.7N 129.5W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 021800Z --- 14.9N 131.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 14 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 030600Z --- 15.2N 134.4W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 13 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 031800Z --- 15.5N 137.1W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 14 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 040600Z --- 15.7N 140.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 13 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 050600Z --- 16.0N 145.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 12 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 060600Z --- 16.0N 150.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 11 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 070600Z --- 16.0N 155.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: 021000Z POSITION NEAR 14.8N 130.2W. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 020600Z IS 12 FEET. AT 020600Z, TROPICAL STORM CENTERED LOCATED 1530 NM E OF HILO. NEXT WARNINGS AT 021600Z, 022200Z, 030400Z AND 031000Z. REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 08E (GILMA) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PHNC) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.// ** WTPN32 PHNC 021000 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// REF/A/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN/PEARL HARBOR HI/020930AUG2006// AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 08E (GILMA) WARNING NR 006 DOWNGRADED FROM TROPICAL STORM 08E 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 020600Z --- NEAR 14.6N 105.9W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 315 DEGREES AT 04 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT REPEAT POSIT: 14.6N 106.0W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 021800Z --- 15.2N 106.9W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 030600Z --- 15.7N 108.2W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 031800Z --- 16.1N 109.8W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 08 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 040600Z --- 16.6N 111.4W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 050600Z --- 17.5N 114.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 07 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 060600Z --- 19.0N 116.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 070600Z --- 20.5N 119.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT --- REMARKS: 021000Z POSITION NEAR 14.8N 106.3W. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 020600Z IS 12 FEET. AT 020600Z, TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTERED LOCATED 550 NM SSE OF CABO, SAN LUCAS. NEXT WARNINGS AT 021600Z, 022200Z, 030400Z AND 031000Z. REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 07E (FABIO) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PHNC) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.// ** WTPQ20 BABJ 021000 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TY PRAPIROON 0606 (0606) INITIAL TIME 021000 UTC 00HR 19.4N 113.9E 975HPA 33M/S 30KTS 400KM 50KTS 100KM P12HR WNW 15KM/H= ** WTCA82 TJSJ 021016 *** HLSSJU PRZ001>013-VIZ001-002-AMZ710>750-021230- BULLETIN- TROPICAL STORM CHRIS LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR 600 AM AST WED AUG 2 2006 ...TROPICAL STORM CHRIS IS BRUSHING BY THE NORTHERNMOST LEEWARD ISLANDS... ...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO... ...HIGH SURF ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM TODAY TO 11 AM THURSDAY FOR THE NORTHERN COASTS OF PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS EXCEPT VIEQUES... ...NEW INFORMATION... STORM POSITION AND TIMING. CONDITIONS EXPECTED. HIGH SURF ADVISORY. ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT RECOMMENDS ACTIONS TO BE TAKEN BY RESIDENTS AND VISITORS OF THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO. ...WATCHES/WARNINGS... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN 24 HOURS OR LESS. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 5:00 AM AST...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CHRIS WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 62.6 WEST...OR ABOUT 49 MILES NORTHEAST OF ANGUILLA...OR ABOUT 165 MILES NORTHEAST OF ST CROIX OR ABOUT 160 MILES EAST NORTHEAST OF ST THOMAS...OR ABOUT 236 MILES EAST OF SAN JUAN. CHRIS WAS MOVING WEST NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH...WITH THIS GENERAL MOTION EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THIS TRACK... THE CENTER OF CHRIS WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE NORTHERNMOST LEEWARD ISLANDS THIS MORNING...AND PASS NORTH OF SAINT THOMAS AND SAINT JOHN LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS...AND CHRIS IS FORECAST TO BECOME A HURRICANE LATER TODAY OR THURSDAY. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... RESIDENTS AND VISITORS OF THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO SHOULD CONTINUE TO MAKE PREPARATIONS FOR TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. THE MAIN IMPACT FROM CHRIS IS EXPECTED TO BE TORRENTIAL RAINS FROM THE HEAVY RAIN BANDS AND SQUALLS ASSOCIATED WITH THE STORM. ADDITIONALLY...STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS TO TROPICAL STORM FORCE AND GREATER MAY ACCOMPANY THESE SQUALLS AND RAINBANDS. MARINERS IN THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS SHOULD HAVE ALREADY PREPARED THEIR VESSELS FOR THIS STORM...AND MARINERS IN PUERTO RICO SHOULD RUSH TO READY THEIR VESSELS. ...WINDS... TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 65 MILES FROM THE CENTER OF CHRIS. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME GUSTY IN THE NORTHERN VIRGIN ISLANDS IN PASSING SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE RAIN BANDS. SUSTAINED WINDS ARE FORECAST TO REACH 20 TO 30 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS TROPICAL STORM CHRIS COMES CLOSER TO THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS. BASED ON THE LATEST FORECAST TRACK THE STORM CENTER IS FORECAST TO PASS NORTH OF ST JOHN AND ST THOMAS EARLY TONIGHT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE GUSTS SHOULD BE EXPECTED AS THE RAIN BANDS AROUND THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE STORM IMPACT ST THOMAS AND ST JOHN...AND TO A LESSER EXTENT ST CROIX. WINDS WILL CHANGE TO THE SOUTHEAST ONCE THE STORM MOVES NORTHWEST OF THE VIRGIN ISLANDS LATE IN THE EVENING. WINDS OVER PUERTO RICO ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE TO 15 TO 25 MPH BY LATER THIS AFTERNOON WITH STRONGER GUSTS ALONG THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE ISLAND AND IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS. CURRENTLY SUSTAINED TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN OFFSHORE ACROSS THE ANEGADA PASSAGE AND THE OFF SHORE ATLANTIC WATERS...BUT RESIDENTS OF THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO SHOULD MONITOR THIS CLOSELY AS ANY INCREASE IN THE INTENSITY THIS MORNING OR A MORE WESTWARD TRACK COULD BRING THE STORM CLOSER TO THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO...WITH MORE SIGNIFICANT WIND IMPACTS. ...INLAND FLOODING... SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE OUTER FRINGES OF TROPICAL STORM CHRIS WILL BEGIN THIS MORNING ACROSS THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS...CULEBRA AND VIEQUES...AND OVER THE EASTERN SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO BY MID MORNING. HEAVY RAINS ARE THEN LIKELY AS THE CENTER OF THE STORM PASSES TO THE NORTH OF THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO. THERE IS A SIGNIFICANT RISK FOR TORRENTIAL RAINFALL AND FLOODING LATE AFTERNOON WEDNESDAY AND INTO THURSDAY. THIS COULD CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY BEHIND THE EXITING STORM AS LOW LEVEL WINDS SHIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST. RAINFALL TOTALS OF THREE TO SIX INCHES ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST INTERIOR SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO AND THE NORTHERN SLOPES OF THE ISLAND. RIVERS ACROSS PUERTO RICO COULD EXPERIENCE RAPID RISES WITH SOME RIVERS EXCEEDING BANKFULL LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY. ...MARINE IMPACTS... SMALL CRAFT SHOULD PLAN TO REMAIN IN PORT THROUGH THURSDAY. SEAS WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE LOCAL ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS AND THROUGH THE ANEGADA PASSAGE THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY... AND WILL LIKELY REACH 10 TO 15 FEET WITHIN 50 MILES OF THE CENTER OF CHRIS. A HIGH SURF ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED EFFECTIVE AT 11 AM TODAY FOR PUERTO RICO INCLUDING CULEBRA AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS. ROUGH AND CONFUSED SURF AND VERY STRONG RIP CURRENTS WILL BE SEEN ACROSS THE WATERS OF THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AND THE NORTHERN COASTS OF PUERTO RICO TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY 8:30 AM AST BY YOUR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE IN SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO. $$ SNELL ** WTCA43 TJSJ 021100 CCA *** TCPSP3 BOLETIN TORMENTA TROPICAL CHRIS ADVERTENCIA INTERMEDIA NUMERO 7...CORREGIDO NWS TCP/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL AL032006 5 AM AST MIERCOLES 2 DE AGOSTO DE 2006 ...CHRIS SE ORGANIZA MEJOR MIENTRAS BORDEA LAS ISLAS NORTE DE SOTAVENTO... ...AVISOS ADICIONALES DE TORMENTA TROPICAL HA SIDO DESCONTINUADOS... EN EFECTO UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL PARA LAS ISLAS DE ANGUILLA...ST. BARTHELEMY...ST MARTIN...Y ST. MAARTEN...Y PARA PUERTO RICO Y LAS ISLAS VIRGENES AMERICANAS Y BRITANICAS. UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SIGNIFICA QUE SE ESPERAN CONDICIONES DE TORMENTA TROPICAL DENTRO DEL AREA DEL AVISO DENTRO DE LAS PROXIMAS 12 A 24 HORAS. A LAS 5 AM AST...0900 UCT...EL GOBIERNO DE ANTIGUA ...HA DESCONTINUADO EL AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL PARA ANTIGUA ...BARBUDA...ST. KITTS...Y NEVIS. PARA INFORMACION ESPECIFICA PARA SU AREA...INCLUYENDO POSIBLES VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS PARA AREAS TERRESTRES...FAVOR DE REFERIRSE A LOS PRODUCTOS EMITIDOS POR SU OFICINA METEOROLOGICA LOCAL. A LAS 5 AM AST...0900Z...EL CENTRO DE LA TORMENTA TROPICAL CHRIS ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 18.8 NORTE...LONGITUD 62.6 OESTE O COMO A 60 MILLAS...95 KM...AL NORESTE DE ST. MARTIN. CHRIS SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL OESTE NOROESTE A CERCA DE 10 MPH...17 KILOMETROS POR HORA...Y SE PRONOSTICA QUE ESTE MOVIMIENTO GENERAL CONTINUARA DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS... EN LA TRAYECTORIA. CHRIS ESTARA PASANDO AL NORTE DE LAS ISLAS DE SOTAVENTO DEL NORTE MAS TARDE ESTA MANANA...PERMANECIENDO AL NORTE DE LAS ISLAS VIRGENES Y PUERTO RICO ESTA TARDE Y ANOCHECER. SIN EMBARGO...ALGUNAS DE LAS FUERTES BANDAS DE LLUVIA DEL LADO SUR DE CRIS PODRIAN AFECTAR PUERTO RICO Y LAS ISLAS VIRGENES MAS TARDE ESTA NOCHE Y TEMPRANO EN EL JUEVES. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS ESTAN EN CERCA DE 60 MPH...95 KM/HR...CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. SE PRONOSTICA ALGUN FORTALECIMIENTO ADICIONAL DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. Y CRIS PODRIA CONVERTIRSE EN HURACAN MAS TARDE DURANTE EL DIA DE HOY O TEMPRANO EN EL JUEVES. LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SE EXTIENDEN HACIA AFUERA HASTA 75 MILLAS...120 KILOMETROS FUERA DEL CENTRO. LA PRESION MINIMA CENTRAL SE ESTIMA EN 1001 MILIBARAS ...29.56 PULGADAS. SE ESPERA QUE CHRIS PRODUZCA TOTALES DE LLUVIA DE 3 A 5 PULGADAS SOBRE LAS ISLAS NORTE DE LAS ISLAS DE SOTAVENTO...LAS ISLAS VIRGENES AMERICANAS Y PORCIONES DE PUERTO RICO...CON CANTIDADES AISLADAS MAXIMAS DE 8 PULGADAS POSIBLES SOBRE TERRENO MAS ALTO HASTA EL JUEVES. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 5 AM AST...18.8 NORTE...62.6 OESTE. SE MUEVE AL...OESTE NOROESTE A CERCA DE 10 MPH. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS...60 MPH. LA PRESION MINIMA CENTRAL...1001 MILIBARAS. UNA ADVERTENCIA INTERMEDIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 8 AM AST SEGUIDO POR LA PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA COMPLETA A LAS 11EMITIDA 5 AM AST. $$ PRONOTICADOR STEWART ** WTSS20 VHHH 021045 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT 020900 UTC, TYPHOON PRAPIROON (0606) WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 970 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 30 NAUTICAL MILES OF ONE NINE POINT ONE DEGREES NORTH (19.1 N) ONE ONE FOUR POINT TWO DEGREES EAST (114.2 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE WEST-NORTHWEST OR NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 7 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 65 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 210 NAUTICAL MILES OVER SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE, 180 NAUTICAL MILES ELSEWHERE. RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 90 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 63 KNOT WINDS 30 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 270 NAUTICAL MILES OVER SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE, 210 NAUTICAL MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 030900 UTC TWO ZERO POINT ZERO DEGREES NORTH (20.0 N) ONE ONE ONE POINT FOUR DEGREES EAST (111.4 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 70 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 040900 UTC TWO ZERO POINT NINE DEGREES NORTH (20.9 N) ONE ZERO NINE POINT THREE DEGREES EAST (109.3 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 65 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 050900 UTC TWO TWO POINT FOUR DEGREES NORTH (22.4 N) ONE ZERO SEVEN POINT NINE DEGREES EAST (107.9 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 60 KNOTS. ** WTSS20 VHHH 021045 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT 020900 UTC, TYPHOON PRAPIROON (0606) WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 970 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 30 NAUTICAL MILES OF ONE NINE POINT ONE DEGREES NORTH (19.1 N) ONE ONE FOUR POINT TWO DEGREES EAST (114.2 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE WEST-NORTHWEST OR NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 7 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 65 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 210 NAUTICAL MILES OVER SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE, 180 NAUTICAL MILES ELSEWHERE. RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 90 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 63 KNOT WINDS 30 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 270 NAUTICAL MILES OVER SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE, 210 NAUTICAL MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 030900 UTC TWO ZERO POINT ZERO DEGREES NORTH (20.0 N) ONE ONE ONE POINT FOUR DEGREES EAST (111.4 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 70 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 040900 UTC TWO ZERO POINT NINE DEGREES NORTH (20.9 N) ONE ZERO NINE POINT THREE DEGREES EAST (109.3 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 65 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 050900 UTC TWO TWO POINT FOUR DEGREES NORTH (22.4 N) ONE ZERO SEVEN POINT NINE DEGREES EAST (107.9 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 60 KNOTS. ** WTPQ20 BABJ 021000 CCB *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TY PRAPIROON 0606 (0606) INITIAL TIME 021000 UTC 00HR 19.4N 113.9E 975HPA 33M/S 30KTS 400KM 50KTS 100KM P12HR WNW 15KM/H= ** WTPQ20 BABJ 021100 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TY PRAPIROON 0606 (0606) INITIAL TIME 021100 UTC 00HR 19.4N 113.7E 975HPA 33M/S 30KTS 400KM 50KTS 100KM P12HR WNW 15KM/H= ** WTPQ20 BABJ 021000 CCA *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TY PRAPIROON 0606 (0606) INITIAL TIME 021000 UTC 00HR 19.4N 113.7E 975HPA 33M/S 30KTS 400KM 50KTS 100KM P12HR WNW 15KM/H= ** WTNT33 KNHC 021133 *** TCPAT3 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM CHRIS INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 7A NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032006 800 AM AST WED AUG 02 2006 ...CHRIS SLIGHTLY STRONGER AS IT SKIRTS THE NORTHERNMOST LEEWARD ISLANDS... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ISLANDS OF ANGUILLA...ST. BARTHELEMY...ST. MARTIN...AND ST. MAARTEN...AND ALSO FOR PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. AND BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 800 AM AST...1200Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CHRIS WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 63.0 WEST OR ABOUT 65 MILES... 105 KM...NORTH OF ST. MARTIN. CHRIS IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/HR... AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF CHRIS WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HOWEVER...SOME OF THE STRONG RAIN BANDS ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF CHRIS MAY AFFECT PUERTO RICO AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS LATER TONIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 65 MPH...100 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND CHRIS COULD BECOME A HURRICANE LATER TODAY OR EARLY THURSDAY. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 75 MILES...120 KM ...MAINLY NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1001 MB...29.56 INCHES. CHRIS IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES OVER THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS...THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS ...AND PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 8 INCHES POSSIBLE OVER HIGHER TERRAIN THROUGH THURSDAY. REPEATING THE 800 AM AST POSITION... 19.0 N 63.0 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 1100 AM AST. $$ FORECASTER PASCH ** WTNT83 KNHC 021145 *** TCVAT3 CHRIS WATCH/WARNING BREAKPOINTS/INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 7A NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032006 800 AM AST WED AUG 2 2006 .TROPICAL STORM CHRIS PRC001-003-005-007-009-011-013-015-017-019-021-023-025-027-029- 031-033-035-037-039-041-043-045-047-049-051-053-054-055-057-059- 061-063-065-067-069-071-073-075-077-079-081-083-085-087-089-091- 093-095-097-099-101-103-105-107-109-111-113-115-117-119-121-123- 125-127-129-131-133-135-137-139-141-143-145-147-149-151-153- VIC010-020-030-021500- /E.CON.KNHC.TR.W.1003.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ 800 AM AST WED AUG 2 2006 PUERTO-RICO-ALL 18.20N 66.45W VIRGIN-IS.-(U.S.) 18.05N 64.80W $$ ATTN...WFO...SJU... ** WTCA43 TJSJ 021146 CCA *** TCPSP3 BOLETIN TORMENTA TROPICAL CHRIS ADVERTENCIA INTERMEDIA NUMERO 7A NWS TCP/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL AL032006 8 AM AST MIERCOLES 2 DE AGOSTO DE 2006 ...CHRIS UN POCO MAS FUERTE A MEDIDA QUE A MEDIDA QUE BORDEA LAS ISLAS NORTE DE NORTE... PERMANECE EN EFECTO UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL PARA LAS ISLAS DE ANGUILLA...ST. BARTHELEMY...ST MARTIN...Y ST. MAARTEN...Y PARA PUERTO RICO Y LAS ISLAS VIRGENES AMERICANAS Y BRITANICAS. UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SIGNIFICA QUE SE ESPERAN CONDICIONES DE TORMENTA TROPICAL DENTRO DEL AREA DEL AVISO DENTRO DE LAS PROXIMAS 12 A 24 HORAS. PARA INFORMACION ESPECIFICA PARA SU AREA...INCLUYENDO POSIBLES VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS PARA AREAS TERRESTRES...FAVOR DE REFERIRSE A LOS PRODUCTOS EMITIDOS POR SU OFICINA METEOROLOGICA LOCAL. A LAS 8 AM AST...1200Z...EL CENTRO DE LA TORMENTA TROPICAL CHRIS ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 19.0 NORTE...LONGITUD 63.0 OESTE O COMO A 65 MILLAS...105 KM...AL NORTE DE ST. MARTIN. CHRIS SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL OESTE NOROESTE A CERCA DE 10 MPH...17 KILOMETROS POR HORA...Y SE PRONOSTICA QUE ESTE MOVIMIENTO GENERAL CONTINUARA DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. EN ESTA TRAYECTORIA...EL CENTRO DE LA TORMENTA CHRIS PERMANECERA AL NORTE DE LAS ISLAS VIRGENES Y PUERTO RICO ESTA TARDE Y ANOCHECER. SIN EMBARGO...ALGUNAS DE LAS FUERTES BANDAS DE LLUVIA DEL LADO SUR DE CRIS PODRIAN AFECTAR PUERTO RICO Y LAS ISLAS VIRGENES MAS TARDE ESTA NOCHE Y TEMPRANO EN EL JUEVES. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS ESTAN EN CERCA DE 65 MPH...100 KM/HR...CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. SE PRONOSTICA ALGUN FORTALECIMIENTO ADICIONAL DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS...Y CHRIS PODRIA CONVERTIRSE EN HURACAN MAS TARDE EN EL DIA DE HOY O TEMPRANO EL JUEVES. LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SE EXTIENDEN HACIA AFUERA HASTA 75 MILLAS...120 KILOMETROS FUERA DEL CENTRO. LA PRESION MINIMA CENTRAL SE ESTIMA EN 1001 MILIBARAS ...29.56 PULGADAS. SE ESPERA QUE CHRIS PRODUZCA TOTALES DE LLUVIA DE 3 A 5 PULGADAS SOBRE LAS ISLAS NORTE DE LAS ISLAS DE SOTAVENTO NORTE...LAS ISLAS VIRGENES AMERICANAS Y PORCIONES DE PUERTO RICO...CON CANTIDADES AISLADAS MAXIMAS DE 8 PULGADAS POSIBLES SOBRE TERRENO MAS ALTO HASTA EL JUEVES. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 8 AM AST...19.0 NORTE...63.0 OESTE. SE MUEVE AL...OESTE NOROESTE A CERCA DE 10 MPH. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS...65 MPH. LA PRESION MINIMA CENTRAL...1001 MILIBARAS. LA PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA COMPLETA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 11 AM AST. $$ PRONOTICADOR PASCH ** WTCA43 TJSJ 021158 CCA *** TCPSP3 BOLETIN TORMENTA TROPICAL CHRIS ADVERTENCIA INTERMEDIA NUMERO 7A NWS TCP/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL AL032006 8 AM AST MIERCOLES 2 DE AGOSTO DE 2006 ...CHRIS UN POCO MAS FUERTE A MEDIDA QUE BORDEA LAS ISLAS DE SOTAVENTO NORTE... PERMANECE EN EFECTO UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL PARA LAS ISLAS DE ANGUILLA...ST. BARTHELEMY...ST MARTIN...Y ST. MAARTEN...Y PARA PUERTO RICO Y LAS ISLAS VIRGENES AMERICANAS Y BRITANICAS. UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SIGNIFICA QUE SE ESPERAN CONDICIONES DE TORMENTA TROPICAL DENTRO DEL AREA DEL AVISO DENTRO DE LAS PROXIMAS 12 A 24 HORAS. PARA INFORMACION ESPECIFICA PARA SU AREA...INCLUYENDO POSIBLES VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS PARA AREAS TERRESTRES...FAVOR DE REFERIRSE A LOS PRODUCTOS EMITIDOS POR SU OFICINA METEOROLOGICA LOCAL. A LAS 8 AM AST...1200Z...EL CENTRO DE LA TORMENTA TROPICAL CHRIS ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 19.0 NORTE...LONGITUD 63.0 OESTE O COMO A 65 MILLAS...105 KM...AL NORTE DE ST. MARTIN. CHRIS SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL OESTE NOROESTE A CERCA DE 10 MPH...17 KILOMETROS POR HORA...Y SE PRONOSTICA QUE ESTE MOVIMIENTO GENERAL CONTINUARA DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. EN ESTA TRAYECTORIA...EL CENTRO DE LA TORMENTA CHRIS PERMANECERA AL NORTE DE LAS ISLAS VIRGENES Y PUERTO RICO ESTA TARDE Y ANOCHECER. SIN EMBARGO...ALGUNAS DE LAS FUERTES BANDAS DE LLUVIA DEL LADO SUR DE CRIS PODRIAN AFECTAR PUERTO RICO Y LAS ISLAS VIRGENES MAS TARDE ESTA NOCHE Y TEMPRANO EN EL JUEVES. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS ESTAN EN CERCA DE 65 MPH...100 KM/HR...CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. SE PRONOSTICA ALGUN FORTALECIMIENTO ADICIONAL DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS...Y CHRIS PODRIA CONVERTIRSE EN HURACAN MAS TARDE EN EL DIA DE HOY O TEMPRANO EL JUEVES. LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SE EXTIENDEN HACIA AFUERA HASTA 75 MILLAS...120 KILOMETROS FUERA DEL CENTRO. LA PRESION MINIMA CENTRAL SE ESTIMA EN 1001 MILIBARAS ...29.56 PULGADAS. SE ESPERA QUE CHRIS PRODUZCA TOTALES DE LLUVIA DE 3 A 5 PULGADAS SOBRE LAS ISLAS NORTE DE LAS ISLAS DE SOTAVENTO NORTE...LAS ISLAS VIRGENES AMERICANAS Y PORCIONES DE PUERTO RICO...CON CANTIDADES AISLADAS MAXIMAS DE 8 PULGADAS POSIBLES SOBRE TERRENO MAS ALTO HASTA EL JUEVES. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 8 AM AST...19.0 NORTE...63.0 OESTE. SE MUEVE AL...OESTE NOROESTE A CERCA DE 10 MPH. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS...65 MPH. LA PRESION MINIMA CENTRAL...1001 MILIBARAS. LA PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA COMPLETA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 11 AM AST. $$ PRONOTICADOR PASCH