** WTNT83 KNHC 020004 *** TCVAT3 CHRIS WATCH/WARNING BREAKPOINTS/INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 5A NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032006 800 PM AST TUE AUG 1 2006 .TROPICAL STORM CHRIS PRC001-003-005-007-009-011-013-015-017-019-021-023-025-027-029- 031-033-035-037-039-041-043-045-047-049-051-053-054-055-057-059- 061-063-065-067-069-071-073-075-077-079-081-083-085-087-089-091- 093-095-097-099-101-103-105-107-109-111-113-115-117-119-121-123- 125-127-129-131-133-135-137-139-141-143-145-147-149-151-153- VIC010-020-030-020300- /E.CON.KNHC.TR.W.1003.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ 800 PM AST TUE AUG 1 2006 PUERTO-RICO-ALL 18.20N 66.45W VIRGIN-IS.-(U.S.) 18.05N 64.80W $$ ATTN...WFO...SJU... ** WTSR20 WSSS 011800 *** NO STORM WARNING= ** WTCA43 TJSJ 020012 *** TCPSP3 BOLETIN TORMENTA TROPICAL CHRIS ADVERTENCIA INTERMEDIA NUMERO 5A NWS TCP/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL 800 PM AST MARTES 1 DE AGOSTO DE 2006 ...FUERTES LLUVIAS Y RAFAGAS DE VIENTOS DE CHRIS SE EXTIENDEN HASTA LAS ISLAS DE SOTAVENTO NORTE... CONTINUA EN EFECTO UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL PARA LAS ISLAS DE ANTIGUA...BARBUDA...ANGUILLA...SAN KITTS...NEVIS...SABA... ST.EUSTATIUS ST. BARTHELEMY...ST MARTIN...Y ST. MAARTEN. UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SIGNIFICA QUE SE ESPERAN CONDICIONES DE TORMENTA TROPICAL DENTRO DEL AREA DEL AVISO DENTRO DE LAS PROXIMAS 12 A 24 HORAS. TAMBIEN SE HA EMITIDO UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL PARA PUERTO RICO Y LAS ISLAS VIRGENES AMERICANAS. PARA INFORMACION ESPECIFICA PARA SU AREA...INCLUYENDO POSIBLES VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS PARA AREAS TERRESTRES...FAVOR DE REFERIRSE A LOS PRODUCTOS EMITIDOS POR SU OFICINA METEOROLOGICA LOCAL. A LAS 800 PM AST...0000Z...EL CENTRO DE LA TORMENTA TROPICAL CHRIS ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 18.3 NORTE...LONGITUD 61.6 OESTE O COMO A 45 MILLAS...75 KM...AL NOR-NORESTE DE BARBUDA. CHRIS SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL OESTE-NOROESTE A CERCA DE 13 MPH...20 KILOMETROS POR HORA...Y SE PRONOSTICA QUE ESTE MOVIMIENTO GENERAL CONTINUARA DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. EN LA TRAYECTORIA ACTUAL...CHRIS ESTARA PASANDO CERCA O SOBRE LAS ISLAS MAS NORTE DE LAS ISLAS DE SOTAVENTO ESTA NOCHE Y TEMPRANO EL MIERCOLES. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS ESTAN EN CERCA DE 60 MPH...95 KM/HR...CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. SE PRONOSTICA ALGUN FORTALECIMIENTO ADICIONAL DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. UN AVION DE RECONOCIMIENTO DE LA FUERZA AEREA TODAVIA ESTA INVESTIGANDO A CHRIS. LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SE EXTIENDEN HACIA AFUERA HASTA 25 MILLAS...35 KILOMETROS FUERA DEL CENTRO. LA PRESIION MINIMA CENTRAL INFORMADA POR EL AVION ERA DE 1003 MILIBARAS ...29.62 PULGADAS. SE ESPERA QUE CHRIS PRODUZCA TOTALES DE LLUVIA DE 3 A 5 PULGADAS SOBRE LAS ISLAS MAS NORTE DE LAS ISLAS DE SOTAVENTO...LAS ISLAS VIRGENES AMERICANAS Y PORCIONES ESTE DE PUERTO RICO...CON POSIBLES CANTIDADES AISLADAS MAXIMAS DE 8 PULGADAS HASTA EL MIERCOLES. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 800 PM AST...18.3 NORTE...61.6 OESTE. SE MUEVE AL...OESTE-NOROESTE A CERCA DE 13 MPH. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS...60 MPH. LA PRESION MINIMA CENTRAL...1003 MILIBARAS. LA PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 11 PM AST. $$ PRONOTICADOR KNABB ** WTCA82 TJSJ 020012 CCA *** HLSSJU PRZ001>013-VIZ001-002-AMZ710>750-020330- BULLETIN- TROPICAL STORM CHRIS LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR 815 PM AST TUE AUG 1 2006 ...TROPICAL STORM CHRIS NEARING THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS... ...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO... ...NEW INFORMATION... STORM INFORMATION. ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT RECOMMENDS ACTIONS TO BE TAKEN BY RESIDENTS AND VISITORS OF THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO. ...WATCHES/WARNINGS... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN 24 HOURS OR LESS. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 8:00 PM AST...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CHRIS WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 61.6 WEST...OR ABOUT 45 MILES NORTH NORTHEAST OF BARBUDA...OR ABOUT 210 MILES EAST NORTHEAST OF ST CROIX OR ABOUT 215 MILES EAST OF ST THOMAS...OR ABOUT 305 MILES EAST OF SAN JUAN. CHRIS WAS MOVING WEST NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH...WITH THIS GENERAL MOTION EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... RESIDENTS AND VISITORS OF THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS PUERTO RICO SHOULD CONTINUE TO MAKE PREPARATIONS FOR TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ON WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE MAIN IMPACT FROM CHRIS IS EXPECTED TO BE TORRENTIAL RAINS FROM THE HEAVY RAIN BANDS AND SQUALLS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST SECTIONS OF THE STORM. ADDITIONALLY...STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS TO TROPICAL STORM FORCE AND GREATER MAY ACCOMPANY THESE SQUALLS AND RAINBANDS. ...WINDS... TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES...FROM THE CENTER OF CHRIS. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE LATER TONIGHT OVER THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS...WITH SUSTAINED WINDS FORECAST TO REACH FROM 20 TO 30 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS BY WEDNESDAY MORNING AS TROPICAL STORM CHRIS APPROACHES THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS. BASED ON THE LATEST TRACK THE STORM CENTER IS FORECAST TO PASS NORTH OF ST JOHN AND ST THOMAS AROUND EARLY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WIND GUSTS SHOULD BE EXPECTED AS THE RAIN BANDS AROUND THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE STORM IMPACT ST THOMAS AND ST JOHN. WINDS WILL CHANGE TO THE SOUTHEAST ONCE THE STORM MOVES WEST NORTHWEST OF THE VIRGIN ISLANDS. WINDS OVER PUERTO RICO ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE TO NEAR 20 TO 25 MPH BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH STRONGER GUSTS ALONG THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE ISLAND AND IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS BASED ON THE LATEST TRACK. CURRENTLY SUSTAINED TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN OFFSHORE...BUT RESIDENTS OF THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO SHOULD MONITOR THIS CLOSELY AS ANY INCREASE IN THE INTENSITY TONIGHT OR A CHANGE TO A MORE WESTWARD TRACK COULD BRING THE STORM CLOSER TO THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO...AND MORE SIGNIFICANT STORM EFFECTS. ...INLAND FLOODING... SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE OUTER WESTERN FRINGES OF TROPICAL STORM CHRIS SHOULD BEGIN LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS...CULEBRA AND VIEQUES AND OVER THE EASTERN SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. HEAVY RAINS ARE LIKELY AS THE CENTER OF THE STORM PASSES TO THE NORTH THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO ON ITS FORECAST TRACK WITH A RISK OF SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL AND FLOODING WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE SURFACE WINDS CHANGE TO THE SOUTHEAST BEHIND THE CENTER OF THE STORM. RAINFALL TOTALS OF AT LEAST THREE TO SIX INCHES ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST INTERIOR SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO AND THE NORTHERN SLOPES OF THE ISLAND. RIVERS ACROSS PUERTO RICO COULD EXPERIENCE RAPID RISES WITH SOME RIVERS EXCEEDING BANKFULL ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ...MARINE IMPACTS... SMALL CRAFT SHOULD PLAN TO REMAIN IN PORT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SEAS WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE LOCAL ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS AND THROUGH THE ANEGADA PASSAGE MIDNIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND WILL LIKELY REACH 10 TO 13 FEET AS STORM PASSES. HIGH SURF ADVISORIES AND COASTAL FLOOD WATCHES ARE LIKELY TO BE ISSUED LATER THIS EVENING FOR THE NORTHERN U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY 11:30 PM AST BY YOUR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE IN SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO. $$ SS ** WTPQ20 BABJ 020000 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST STS PRAPIROON 0606 (0606) INITIAL TIME 020000 UTC 00HR 18.0N 115.5E 980HPA 28M/S 30KTS 360KM 50KTS 50KM P12HR WNW 15KM/H P+24HR 19.1N 112.5E 970HPA 35M/S P+48HR 20.3N 110.7E 960HPA 40M/S P+72HR 21.7N 109.5E 975HPA 33M/S= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 020000 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME STS 0606 PRAPIROON (0606) ANALYSIS PSTN 020000UTC 17.7N 115.5E FAIR MOVE W 06KT PRES 980HPA MXWD 055KT 50KT 40NM 30KT 200NM FORECAST 24HF 030000UTC 19.0N 112.9E 80NM 70% MOVE WNW 07KT PRES 965HPA MXWD 070KT 48HF 040000UTC 20.3N 110.7E 150NM 70% MOVE WNW 06KT PRES 970HPA MXWD 065KT 72HF 050000UTC 21.8N 108.9E 220NM 70% MOVE NW SLOWLY PRES 985HPA MXWD 050KT = ** WTJP21 RJTD 020000 *** WARNING 020000. WARNING VALID 030000. WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS. TYPHOON WARNING. SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 0606 PRAPIROON (0606) 980 HPA AT 17.7N 115.5E SOUTH CHINA SEA MOVING WEST 06 KNOTS. POSITION FAIR. MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 40 MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 200 MILES. FORECAST POSITION FOR 030000UTC AT 19.0N 112.9E WITH 80 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 965 HPA, MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. FORECAST POSITION FOR 040000UTC AT 20.3N 110.7E WITH 150 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 970 HPA, MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. FORECAST POSITION FOR 050000UTC AT 21.8N 108.9E WITH 220 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 985 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ30 RJTD 020000 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING REASONING NO. 3 FOR STS 0606 PRAPIROON (0606) 1.GENERAL COMMENTS REASONING OF PROGNOSIS THIS TIME IS SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS ONE. POSITION FORECAST IS MAINLY BASED ON NWP AND PERSISTENCY. 2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION NOTHING PARTICULAR TO EXPLAIN. 3.MOTION FORECAST POSITION ACCURACY AT 020000 UTC IS FAIR. STS WILL MOVE AT THE SAME SPEED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. STS WILL MOVE WEST-NORTHWEST FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. 4.INTENSITY FORECAST STS WILL BE GRADED UP TO TY WITHIN 24 HOURS. STS WILL DEVELOP BECAUSE CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURE NEAR CYCLONE CENTER HAS BECOME COLDER. FI-NUMBER WILL BE 4.5 AFTER 24 HOURS.= ** WTSS20 VHHH 020145 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT 020000 UTC, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM PRAPIROON (0606) WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 978 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES OF ONE SEVEN POINT EIGHT DEGREES NORTH (17.8 N) ONE ONE FIVE POINT FIVE DEGREES EAST (115.5 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE WEST-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 8 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 55 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 210 NAUTICAL MILES OVER SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE, 180 NAUTICAL MILES ELSEWHERE. RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 90 NAUTICAL MILES OVER SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE, 60 NAUTICAL MILES ELSEWHERE. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 240 NAUTICAL MILES. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 030000 UTC ONE NINE POINT TWO DEGREES NORTH (19.2 N) ONE ONE TWO POINT FIVE DEGREES EAST (112.5 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 65 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 040000 UTC TWO ZERO POINT THREE DEGREES NORTH (20.3 N) ONE ZERO NINE POINT NINE DEGREES EAST (109.9 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 65 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 050000 UTC TWO ONE POINT FOUR DEGREES NORTH (21.4 N) ONE ZERO EIGHT POINT NINE DEGREES EAST (108.9 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 60 KNOTS. ** WTSS20 VHHH 020145 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT 020000 UTC, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM PRAPIROON (0606) WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 978 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES OF ONE SEVEN POINT EIGHT DEGREES NORTH (17.8 N) ONE ONE FIVE POINT FIVE DEGREES EAST (115.5 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE WEST-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 8 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 55 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 210 NAUTICAL MILES OVER SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE, 180 NAUTICAL MILES ELSEWHERE. RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 90 NAUTICAL MILES OVER SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE, 60 NAUTICAL MILES ELSEWHERE. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 240 NAUTICAL MILES. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 030000 UTC ONE NINE POINT TWO DEGREES NORTH (19.2 N) ONE ONE TWO POINT FIVE DEGREES EAST (112.5 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 65 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 040000 UTC TWO ZERO POINT THREE DEGREES NORTH (20.3 N) ONE ZERO NINE POINT NINE DEGREES EAST (109.9 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 65 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 050000 UTC TWO ONE POINT FOUR DEGREES NORTH (21.4 N) ONE ZERO EIGHT POINT NINE DEGREES EAST (108.9 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 60 KNOTS. ** WTPQ20 BABJ 020200 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST STS PRAPIROON 0606 (0606) INITIAL TIME 020200 UTC 00HR 18.1N 115.3E 980HPA 28M/S 30KTS 360KM 50KTS 50KM P12HR WNW 15KM/H= ** WTPQ20 BABJ 020100 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST STS PRAPIROON 0606 (0606) INITIAL TIME 020100 UTC 00HR 18.0N 115.4E 980HPA 28M/S 30KTS 360KM 50KTS 50KM P12HR WNW 15KM/H= ** WTPN31 PGTW 020300 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL STORM 07W (PRAPIROON) WARNING NR 009 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 020000Z --- NEAR 18.1N 115.2E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 285 DEGREES AT 07 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 18.1N 115.2E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 021200Z --- 18.7N 113.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 030000Z --- 19.3N 112.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 031200Z --- 19.8N 110.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 05 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 040000Z --- 20.3N 109.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 050000Z --- 21.2N 108.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 04 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 060000Z --- 21.9N 106.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 070000Z --- 22.3N 105.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 015 KT, GUSTS 025 KT DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 020300Z POSITION NEAR 18.3N 114.8E. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 07W (PRAPIROON), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 255 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF HONG KONG, HAS TRACKED WEST- NORTHWESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 020000Z IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 020900Z, 021500Z, 022100Z AND 030300Z.// ** WTPZ43 KNHC 020238 *** TCDEP3 TROPICAL STORM GILMA DISCUSSION NUMBER 5 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082006 800 PM PDT TUE AUG 01 2006 AFTER A BURST OF CONVECTION IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS...THUNDERSTORMS HAVE WEAKENED CONSIDERABLY NEAR THE CENTER OF GILMA. EASTERLY SHEAR IS SEEMINGLY PREVENTING ANY SIGNIFICANT INTENSIFICATION. ALTHOUGH SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES HAVE INCREASED A LITTLE...THE RECENT COLLAPSE OF THE DEEP CONVECTION SUGGESTS LITTLE INTENSIFICATION HAS TAKEN PLACE. THEREFORE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL REMAIN 35 KT. EASTERLY SHEAR IS FORECAST TO PERSIST FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AND SHIPS/GFDL SHOW LITTLE SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN STRENGTH. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS LOWERED JUST A LITTLE FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST BUT NOT AS LOW AS GUIDANCE...YET. GILMA IS STILL MOVING TO NORTHWEST SLOWLY.. 310/6. GLOBAL MODELS HAVE A SLIGHTLY BETTER HANDLE ON THE INITIAL POSITION OF THE CYCLONE THAN EARLIER AND THE LARGEST DIFFERENCE IN THE MODELS IS HOW LONG THE NORTHWESTWARD MOTION WILL CONTINUE. THE UKMET SHOWS THE CURRENT MOTION PERSISTING FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...MOVING TOWARD A WEAKNESS IN MIDDLE-LEVEL RIDGING OVER BAJA CALIFORNIA. THE GFS SHOWS QUITE A DIFFERENT SOLUTION WITH A MIDDLE-LEVEL HIGH ACTUALLY FORMING NORTHWEST OF THE CYCLONE... CAUSING A MORE WESTWARD MOTION ALMOST IMMEDIATELY AND FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THE ECMWF IS IN BETWEEN THESE MODELS...SHOWING A MORE WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WITH A NORTHWESTWARD TURN TOWARD A DIGGING TROUGH OFFSHORE OF THE SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES BEYOND THREE DAYS. A COMPOSITE OF THESE THREE REASONABLE MODEL SOLUTIONS IS USED FOR THE OFFICIAL FORECAST... WHICH IS A LITTLE SLOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 02/0300Z 14.8N 106.0W 35 KT 12HR VT 02/1200Z 15.1N 106.8W 35 KT 24HR VT 03/0000Z 15.4N 108.1W 40 KT 36HR VT 03/1200Z 15.7N 109.7W 45 KT 48HR VT 04/0000Z 16.0N 111.5W 45 KT 72HR VT 05/0000Z 17.5N 115.0W 45 KT 96HR VT 06/0000Z 19.0N 117.0W 35 KT 120HR VT 07/0000Z 21.0N 119.5W 30 KT $$ FORECASTER BLAKE/KNABB ** WTPZ23 KNHC 020239 *** TCMEP3 TROPICAL STORM GILMA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082006 0300 UTC WED AUG 02 2006 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.8N 106.0W AT 02/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 6 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 0NE 0SE 60SW 60NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 0NE 0SE 60SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.8N 106.0W AT 02/0300Z AT 02/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.6N 105.7W FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 15.1N 106.8W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 30SE 60SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 15.4N 108.1W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 60SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 15.7N 109.7W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 60SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 16.0N 111.5W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 60SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 17.5N 115.0W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 60SW 60NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 06/0000Z 19.0N 117.0W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 07/0000Z 21.0N 119.5W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.8N 106.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 02/0900Z $$ FORECASTER BLAKE/KNABB ** WTPZ42 KNHC 020240 *** TCDEP2 TROPICAL STORM FABIO DISCUSSION NUMBER 6 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072006 800 PM PDT TUE AUG 01 2006 THE FINAL VISIBLE IMAGES OF THE DAY SUGGEST THE THE CENTER OF FABIO IS SOMEWHAT EXPOSED ON THE SOUTHEASTERN SIDE OF A BALL OF DEEP CONVECTION... REQUIRING A SMALL SOUTHWARD RELOCATION TO THE INITIAL POSITION. THOUGH THE CYCLONE LOOKS TO BE A LITTLE WEAKER THAN 6 HOURS AGO...DVORAK T-NUMBERS ARE UNCHANGED AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL REMAIN 45 KT. SHEAR VALUES ARE NOT FORECAST TO CHANGE MUCH DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AND SSTS ONLY SLOWLY DECREASE. THEREFORE ONLY A MODEST WEAKENING IS INDICATED FOR THE NEAR-TERM... WITH FASTER WEAKENING IN THE LONG-TERM AS THE CYCLONE ENCOUNTERS STRONGER SHEAR AND A MORE STABLE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT. THE INITIAL MOTION IS BASICALLY THE SAME AS BEFORE.. 275/12. A STRONG DEEP LAYER RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF FABIO SHOULD STEER THE SYSTEM IN A WEST TO WEST-NORTHWEST FASHION FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. THEREAFTER...FABIO IS EXPECTED TO TURN MORE WESTWARD AS IT BECOMES A SHALLOWER SYSTEM MORE INFLUENCED BY THE LOW LAYER EASTERLY FLOW OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS ON THE SOUTHERN END OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE... CLOSE TO THE FSU SUPERENSEMBLE. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 02/0300Z 14.7N 128.2W 45 KT 12HR VT 02/1200Z 14.9N 130.2W 45 KT 24HR VT 03/0000Z 15.3N 133.0W 45 KT 36HR VT 03/1200Z 15.6N 135.7W 40 KT 48HR VT 04/0000Z 16.0N 138.5W 40 KT 72HR VT 05/0000Z 16.0N 144.0W 35 KT 96HR VT 06/0000Z 16.0N 149.5W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW 120HR VT 07/0000Z 16.0N 154.0W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW $$ FORECASTER BLAKE/KNABB ** WTPZ22 KNHC 020240 *** TCMEP2 TROPICAL STORM FABIO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072006 0300 UTC WED AUG 02 2006 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.7N 128.2W AT 02/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 12 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT....... 50NE 30SE 30SW 60NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 50NE 30SE 30SW 50NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.7N 128.2W AT 02/0300Z AT 02/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.6N 127.6W FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 14.9N 130.2W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 15.3N 133.0W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 15.6N 135.7W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 45NE 25SE 25SW 45NW. FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 16.0N 138.5W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 45NE 25SE 25SW 45NW. FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 16.0N 144.0W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 25SE 25SW 40NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 06/0000Z 16.0N 149.5W...REMNANT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 07/0000Z 16.0N 154.0W...REMNANT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.7N 128.2W NEXT ADVISORY AT 02/0900Z $$ FORECASTER BLAKE ** WTNT23 KNHC 020248 *** TCMAT3 TROPICAL STORM CHRIS FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032006 0300 UTC WED AUG 02 2006 A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE ISLANDS OF ANTIGUA...BARBUDA...ANGUILLA...ST. KITTS...NEVIS...SABA...ST. EUSTATIUS...ST. BARTHELEMY...ST. MARTIN...AND ST. MAARTEN. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. AND BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.3N 61.8W AT 02/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. 50 KT....... 15NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT....... 25NE 35SE 35SW 25NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 50NE 50SE 40SW 40NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.3N 61.8W AT 02/0300Z AT 02/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.1N 61.4W FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 18.9N 63.3W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 19.5N 65.3W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 25NE 0SE 0SW 25NW. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 20.1N 67.3W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 45SE 45SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 20.6N 69.3W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 45SE 45SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 21.5N 73.5W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 75NE 60SE 60SW 75NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 06/0000Z 22.5N 77.5W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 07/0000Z 23.5N 81.5W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.3N 61.8W NEXT ADVISORY AT 02/0900Z $$ FORECASTER KNABB ** WTNT33 KNHC 020249 *** TCPAT3 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM CHRIS ADVISORY NUMBER 6 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032006 1100 PM AST TUE AUG 01 2006 ...CENTER OF CHRIS PASSING JUST NORTH OF BARBUDA IN THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE ISLANDS OF ANTIGUA...BARBUDA...ANGUILLA...ST. KITTS...NEVIS...SABA...ST. EUSTATIUS...ST. BARTHELEMY...ST. MARTIN...AND ST. MAARTEN. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. AND BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 1100 PM AST...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CHRIS WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 61.8 WEST OR ABOUT 50 MILES... 80 KM...NORTH OF BARBUDA IN THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS. CHRIS IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/HR... AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF CHRIS WILL MOVE NEAR OR OVER THE NORTHERNMOST LEEWARD ISLANDS TONIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ANOTHER AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WILL INVESTIGATE CHRIS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 40 MILES...65 KM FROM THE CENTER. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1003 MB...29.62 INCHES. REPEATING THE 1100 PM AST POSITION...18.3 N...61.8 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB. CHRIS IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES OVER THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS...THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS...AND PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 8 INCHES THROUGH WEDNESDAY. AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 200 AM AST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 500 AM AST. $$ FORECASTER KNABB ** WTNT83 KNHC 020249 *** TCVAT3 CHRIS WATCH/WARNING BREAKPOINTS/ADVISORY NUMBER 6 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032006 1100 PM AST TUE AUG 1 2006 .TROPICAL STORM CHRIS PRC001-003-005-007-009-011-013-015-017-019-021-023-025-027-029- 031-033-035-037-039-041-043-045-047-049-051-053-054-055-057-059- 061-063-065-067-069-071-073-075-077-079-081-083-085-087-089-091- 093-095-097-099-101-103-105-107-109-111-113-115-117-119-121-123- 125-127-129-131-133-135-137-139-141-143-145-147-149-151-153- VIC010-020-030-020900- /E.CON.KNHC.TR.W.1003.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ 1100 PM AST TUE AUG 1 2006 PUERTO-RICO-ALL 18.20N 66.45W VIRGIN-IS.-(U.S.) 18.05N 64.80W $$ ATTN...WFO...SJU... ** WTNT43 KNHC 020259 *** TCDAT3 TROPICAL STORM CHRIS DISCUSSION NUMBER 6 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032006 1100 PM EDT TUE AUG 01 2006 CHRIS APPEARS TO HAVE GRADUALLY GAINED ORGANIZATION TONIGHT. THE SERIES OF AIRCRAFT FIXES LEADING UP TO 00Z BOUNCED AROUND QUITE A BIT...ALTHOUGH I AM NOT SURE IF THAT WAS DUE TO REFORMATION OF THE CENTER...SMALLER VORTICES ROTATING ABOUT A MEAN CENTER...OR SOME COMBINATION OF THESE FACTORS. IN ANY EVENT...DURING THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS THE DEEP CONVECTION HAS CONSOLIDATED OVER THE MEAN CIRCULATION CENTER...WHICH IS A CHANGE FROM EARLIER TONIGHT WHEN THE CONVECTION WAS CONFINED MOSTLY SOUTH OF THE CENTER. THE STRONGEST FLIGHT-LEVEL WIND OBSERVATION...SINCE THE PEAK VALUE OF 64 KT AT 2042Z...HAS BEEN 59 KT SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER AT ABOUT 2235Z. THE CENTRAL PRESSURE FROM THE LAST AIRCRAFT FIX AT 00Z WAS STILL 1003 MB...SO THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 50 KT. THIS ESTIMATE IS ALSO SUPPORTED BY DVORAK ESTIMATES OF 45 KT FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB. ANOTHER AIRCRAFT WILL INVESTIGATE CHRIS WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. SMOOTHING THROUGH THE SCATTERED AIRCRAFT FIXES STILL YIELDS AN ESTIMATED FORWARD MOTION OF 295/9. IN THE BIG PICTURE...THERE SHOULD BE NO SURPRISE IF CHRIS CONTINUES ON A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWESTWARD HEADING FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...GIVEN THE STRONG DEEP-LAYER RIDGING FORECAST BY ALL OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS TO PERSIST TO THE NORTH OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE. HOWEVER... THE DETAILS OF THE TRACK FORECAST WILL LIKELY HAVE SIGNIFICANT IMPLICATIONS ON THE FUTURE INTENSITY OF CHRIS. FOR ONE... IF CHRIS TAKES A MORE SOUTHERLY TRACK AS SUGGESTED BY THE GFDL AND THE FSU SUPERENSEMBLE... THE STORM COULD WEAKEN OVER HISPANIOLA AND/OR CUBA. IF ON THE OTHER HAND CHRIS REMAINS OVER THE WARM WATERS JUST NORTH OF THE GREATER ANTILLES... ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS COULD REMAIN CONDUCIVE FOR CHRIS TO REACH AND PERHAPS MAINTAIN HURRICANE INTENSITY. THIS IS THE SOLUTION DEPICTED BY THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK...INCLUDING THE PREVIOUS ONE...WHICH WOULD TAKE CHRIS BENEATH A NARROW EAST-WEST ORIENTED UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE AND LESSEN THE EFFECTS OF VERTICAL SHEAR THAT WOULD BE FELT FARTHER NORTH. IF CHRIS WERE TO TAKE A MORE NORTHERN TRACK THAN SHOWN BELOW...THE SHEAR WOULD BE STRONGER AND LESS SUPPORTIVE OF HURRICANE STRENGTH. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY BUT FORECASTS A HURRICANE A LITTLE SOONER. IT IS ALSO VERY CLOSE TO THE SHIPS GUIDANCE...BUT ABOVE THE GFDL SINCE THAT MODEL WEAKENS CHRIS OVER LAND. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 02/0300Z 18.3N 61.8W 50 KT 12HR VT 02/1200Z 18.9N 63.3W 55 KT 24HR VT 03/0000Z 19.5N 65.3W 60 KT 36HR VT 03/1200Z 20.1N 67.3W 65 KT 48HR VT 04/0000Z 20.6N 69.3W 65 KT 72HR VT 05/0000Z 21.5N 73.5W 65 KT 96HR VT 06/0000Z 22.5N 77.5W 65 KT 120HR VT 07/0000Z 23.5N 81.5W 65 KT $$ FORECASTER KNABB ** WTCA43 TJSJ 020306 *** TCPSP3 BOLETIN TORMENTA TROPICAL CHRIS ADVERTENCIA INTERMEDIA NUMERO 6 NWS TCP/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL AL032006 1100 PM AST MARTES 1 DE AGOSTO DE 2006 ...EL CENTRO DE CHRIS PASANDO JUSTO AL NORTE DE BARBUDA EN LAS ISLAS DE SOTAVENTO NORTE... EN EFECTO UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL PARA LAS ISLAS DE ANTIGUA...BARBUDA...ANGUILLA...SAN KITTS...NEVIS...SABA... ST.EUSTATIUS ST. BARTHELEMY...ST MARTIN...Y ST. MAARTEN. UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SIGNIFICA QUE SE ESPERAN CONDICIONES DE TORMENTA TROPICAL DENTRO DEL AREA DEL AVISO DENTRO DE LAS PROXIMAS 12 A 24 HORAS. TAMBIEN SE HA EMITIDO UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL PARA PUERTO RICO Y LAS ISLAS VIRGENES AMERICANAS. PARA INFORMACION ESPECIFICA PARA SU AREA...INCLUYENDO POSIBLES VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS PARA AREAS TERRESTRES...FAVOR DE REFERIRSE A LOS PRODUCTOS EMITIDOS POR SU OFICINA METEOROLOGICA LOCAL. A LAS 1100 PM AST...0300Z...EL CENTRO DE LA TORMENTA TROPICAL CHRIS ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 18.3 NORTE...LONGITUD 61.8 OESTE O COMO A 50 MILLAS...80 KM...AL NORTE DE BARBUDA EN LAS ISLAS DE SOTAVENTO NORTE. CHRIS SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL OESTE-NOROESTE A CERCA DE 10 MPH...17 KILOMETROS POR HORA...Y SE PRONOSTICA QUE ESTE MOVIMIENTO GENERAL CONTINUARA DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. EN LA TRAYECTORIA ACTUAL...CHRIS ESTARA PASANDO CERCA O SOBRE LAS ISLAS MAS NORTE DE LAS ISLAS DE SOTAVENTO ESTA NOCHE Y TEMPRANO EL MIERCOLES. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS ESTAN EN CERCA DE 60 MPH...95 KM/HR...CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. SE PRONOSTICA ALGUN FORTALECIMIENTO ADICIONAL DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. OTRO AVION DE LA FUERZA AEREA INVESTIGARA A CHRIS DURANTE LA NOCHE. LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SE EXTIENDEN HACIA AFUERA HASTA 40 MILLAS...65 KILOMETROS FUERA DEL CENTRO. LA PRESION MINIMA CENTRAL SE ESTIMA EN 1003 MILIBARAS ...29.62 PULGADAS. SE ESPERA QUE CHRIS PRODUZCA TOTALES DE LLUVIA DE 3 A 5 PULGADAS SOBRE LAS ISLAS NORTE DE LAS ISLAS DE SOTAVENTO...LAS ISLAS VIRGENES AMERICANAS Y PORCIONES DE PUERTO RICO...CON POSIBLES CANTIDADES AISLADAS MAXIMAS DE 8 PULGADAS HASTA EL MIERCOLES. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 1100 PM AST...18.3 NORTE...61.8 OESTE. SE MUEVE AL...OESTE-NOROESTE A CERCA DE 10 MPH. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS...60 MPH. LA PRESION MINIMA CENTRAL...1003 MILIBARAS. UNA ADVERTENCIA INTERMEDIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 2 AM AST SEGUIDO POR UNA ADVERTENCIA MAS DETALLADA A LAS 500 AM AST. $$ PRONOTICADOR KNABB ** WTPQ20 BABJ 020300 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST STS PRAPIROON 0606 (0606) INITIAL TIME 020300 UTC 00HR 18.5N 115.2E 975HPA 30M/S 30KTS 400KM 50KTS 100KM P12HR WNW 15KM/H= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 020300 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME STS 0606 PRAPIROON (0606) ANALYSIS PSTN 020300UTC 18.6N 115.1E FAIR MOVE NW 07KT PRES 980HPA MXWD 055KT 50KT 40NM 30KT 200NM FORECAST 24HF 030300UTC 19.9N 111.9E 80NM 70% MOVE WNW 08KT PRES 965HPA MXWD 070KT 45HF 040000UTC 20.3N 110.7E 150NM 70% MOVE WNW 06KT PRES 970HPA MXWD 065KT 69HF 050000UTC 21.8N 108.9E 220NM 70% MOVE NW SLOWLY PRES 985HPA MXWD 050KT = ** WTJP31 RJTD 020300 *** WARNING 020300. WARNING VALID 030300. TYPHOON WARNING. SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 0606 PRAPIROON (0606) 980 HPA AT 18.6N 115.1E SOUTH CHINA SEA MOVING NORTHWEST 07 KNOTS. POSITION FAIR. MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 40 MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 200 MILES. FORECAST POSITION FOR 030300UTC AT 19.9N 111.9E WITH 80 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 965 HPA, MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ20 BABJ 020400 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST STS PRAPIROON 0606 (0606) INITIAL TIME 020400 UTC 00HR 18.8N 114.9E 975HPA 30M/S 30KTS 400KM 50KTS 100KM P12HR WNW 15KM/H= ** WTCA82 TJSJ 020421 CCA *** HLSSJU PRZ001>013-VIZ001-002-AMZ710>750-020730- BULLETIN- TROPICAL STORM CHRIS LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR 1215 AM AST WED AUG 2 2006 ...TROPICAL STORM CHRIS PASSING NORTH OF BARBUDA...APPROACHING ST MARTIN AND ANGUILLA... ...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO... ...NEW INFORMATION... STORM INFORMATION. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS. WINDS. INLAND FLOODING. MARINE IMPACTS. ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT RECOMMENDS ACTIONS TO BE TAKEN BY RESIDENTS AND VISITORS OF THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO. ...WATCHES/WARNINGS... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN 24 HOURS OR LESS. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 11:00 PM AST...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CHRIS WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 61.8 WEST...OR ABOUT 50 MILES NORTH OF BARBUDA...OR ABOUT 185 MILES EAST NORTHEAST OF ST CROIX OR ABOUT 205 MILES EAST OF ST THOMAS...OR ABOUT 285 MILES EAST OF SAN JUAN. CHRIS WAS MOVING WEST NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH...WITH THIS GENERAL MOTION EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS...AND CHRIS IS FORECAST TO BECOME A HURRICANE THURSDAY MORNING. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... RESIDENTS AND VISITORS OF THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS PUERTO RICO SHOULD CONTINUE TO MAKE PREPARATIONS FOR TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ON WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY EVENING. THE MAIN IMPACT FROM CHRIS IS EXPECTED TO BE TORRENTIAL RAINS FROM THE HEAVY RAIN BANDS AND SQUALLS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST SECTIONS OF THE STORM. ADDITIONALLY...STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS TO TROPICAL STORM FORCE AND GREATER MAY ACCOMPANY THESE SQUALLS AND RAINBANDS. MARINERS IN THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS SHOULD HAVE ALREADY PREPARED THEIR VESSELS FOR THIS STORM...AND MARINERS IN PUERTO RICO SHOULD RUSH TO READY THEIR VESSELS. ...WINDS... TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES FROM THE CENTER OF CHRIS. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE EARLY WEDNESDAY OVER THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS...WITH SUSTAINED WINDS FORECAST TO REACH 20 TO 30 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS AFTER 8 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING AS TROPICAL STORM CHRIS APPROACHES THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS. BASED ON THE LATEST FORECAST TRACK THE STORM CENTER IS FORECAST TO PASS NORTH OF ST JOHN AND ST THOMAS EARLY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WIND IN GUSTS SHOULD BE EXPECTED AS THE RAIN BANDS AROUND THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE STORM IMPACT ST THOMAS AND ST JOHN...AND TO A LESSER EXTENT ST CROIX. WINDS WILL CHANGE TO THE SOUTHEAST ONCE THE STORM MOVES NORTHWEST OF THE VIRGIN ISLANDS WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WINDS OVER PUERTO RICO ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE TO 15 TO 25 MPH BY LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH STRONGER GUSTS ALONG THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE ISLAND AND IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS. CURRENTLY SUSTAINED TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN OFFSHORE ACROSS THE ANEGADA PASSAGE AND THE OFF SHORE ATLANTIC WATERS...BUT RESIDENTS OF THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO SHOULD MONITOR THIS CLOSELY AS ANY INCREASE IN THE INTENSITY TONIGHT OR A MORE WESTWARD TRACK COULD BRING THE STORM CLOSER TO THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO...AND MORE SIGNIFICANT WIND IMPACTS. ...INLAND FLOODING... SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE OUTER WESTERN FRINGES OF TROPICAL STORM CHRIS SHOULD BEGIN EARLY WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS...CULEBRA AND VIEQUES...AND OVER THE EASTERN SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. HEAVY RAINS ARE THEN LIKELY AS THE CENTER OF THE STORM PASSES TO THE NORTH THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO. THERE IS A SIGNIFICANT RISK FOR TORRENTIAL RAINFALL AND FLOODING WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AND COULD CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY BEHIND THE EXITING STORM AS LOW LEVEL WINDS SHIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST. RAINFALL TOTALS OF THREE TO SIX INCHES ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST INTERIOR SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO AND THE NORTHERN SLOPES OF THE ISLAND. RIVERS ACROSS PUERTO RICO COULD EXPERIENCE RAPID RISES WITH SOME RIVERS EXCEEDING BANKFULL ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY. ...MARINE IMPACTS... SMALL CRAFT SHOULD PLAN TO REMAIN IN PORT THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SEAS WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE LOCAL ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS AND THROUGH THE ANEGADA PASSAGE OVERNIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT... AND WILL LIKELY REACH 10 TO 15 FEET WITHIN 50 MILES OF THE CENTER OF CHRIS. HIGH SURF ADVISORIES AND COASTAL FLOOD WATCHES ARE LIKELY TO BE ISSUED LATER OVERNIGHT FOR THE NORTHERN U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS. ROUGH AND CONFUSED SURF AND VERY STRONG RIP CURRENTS WILL BE SEEN ACROSS THE WATERS OF THE VIRGIN ISLANDS WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY 3:30 AM AST BY YOUR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE IN SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO. $$ SS ** WTPN31 PHNC 020400 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// REF/A/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN/PEARL HARBOR HI/020335AUG2006// AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL STORM 07E (FABIO) WARNING NR 006 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 020000Z --- NEAR 14.6N 127.6W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 275 DEGREES AT 12 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 14.6N 127.6W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 021200Z --- 14.9N 130.2W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 14 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 030000Z --- 15.3N 133.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 13 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 031200Z --- 15.6N 135.7W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 40 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 040000Z --- 16.0N 144.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 00 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 050000Z --- 16.0N 144.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 13 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 060000Z --- 16.0N 149.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 11 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 070000Z --- 16.0N 154.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: 020400Z POSITION NEAR 14.7N 128.5W. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 020000Z IS 12 FEET. AT 080200 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED 1228 NM SSW OF SAN DIEGO. NEXT WARNINGS AT 021000Z, 021600Z, 022200Z AND 030400Z. REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 08E (GILMA) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PHNC) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.// ** WTPN31 PHNC 020400 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// REF/A/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN/PEARL HARBOR HI/020335AUG2006// AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL STORM 07E (FABIO) WARNING NR 006 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 020000Z --- NEAR 14.6N 127.6W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 275 DEGREES AT 12 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 14.6N 127.6W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 021200Z --- 14.9N 130.2W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 14 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 030000Z --- 15.3N 133.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 13 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 031200Z --- 15.6N 135.7W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 40 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 040000Z --- 16.0N 144.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 00 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 050000Z --- 16.0N 144.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 13 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 060000Z --- 16.0N 149.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 11 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 070000Z --- 16.0N 154.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: 020400Z POSITION NEAR 14.7N 128.5W. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 020000Z IS 12 FEET. AT 020000Z TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED 1228 NM SSW OF SAN DIEGO. NEXT WARNINGS AT 021000Z, 021600Z, 022200Z AND 030400Z. REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 08E (GILMA) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PHNC) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.// ** WTPN32 PHNC 020400 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// REF/A/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN/PEARL HARBOR HI/020330AUG2006// AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL STORM 08E (GILMA) WARNING NR 005 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 020000Z --- NEAR 14.6N 105.7W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 310 DEGREES AT 06 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 14.6N 105.7W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 021200Z --- 15.1N 106.8W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 030000Z --- 15.4N 108.1W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 031200Z --- 15.7N 109.7W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 09 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 040000Z --- 16.0N 111.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 050000Z --- 17.5N 115.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 06 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 060000Z --- 19.0N 117.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 070000Z --- 21.0N 119.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT --- REMARKS: 020400Z POSITION NEAR 14.8N 106.1W. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 020000Z IS 13 FEET. AT 020000Z TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED 1252 NM SSE OF SAN DIEGO. NEXT WARNINGS AT 021000Z, 021600Z, 022200Z AND 030400Z. REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 07E (FABIO) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PHNC) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.// ** WTSS20 VHHH 020445 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT 020300 UTC, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM PRAPIROON (0606) WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 975 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 30 NAUTICAL MILES OF ONE EIGHT POINT TWO DEGREES NORTH (18.2 N) ONE ONE FIVE POINT TWO DEGREES EAST (115.2 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE WEST-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 8 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 60 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 210 NAUTICAL MILES OVER SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE, 180 NAUTICAL MILES ELSEWHERE. RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 90 NAUTICAL MILES OVER SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE, 60 NAUTICAL MILES ELSEWHERE. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 240 NAUTICAL MILES. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 030300 UTC ONE NINE POINT FOUR DEGREES NORTH (19.4 N) ONE ONE TWO POINT TWO DEGREES EAST (112.2 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 65 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 040300 UTC TWO ZERO POINT FIVE DEGREES NORTH (20.5 N) ONE ZERO NINE POINT SEVEN DEGREES EAST (109.7 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 60 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 050300 UTC TWO ONE POINT FIVE DEGREES NORTH (21.5 N) ONE ZERO EIGHT POINT SEVEN DEGREES EAST (108.7 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 55 KNOTS. ** WTSS20 VHHH 020445 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT 020300 UTC, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM PRAPIROON (0606) WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 975 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 30 NAUTICAL MILES OF ONE EIGHT POINT TWO DEGREES NORTH (18.2 N) ONE ONE FIVE POINT TWO DEGREES EAST (115.2 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE WEST-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 8 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 60 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 210 NAUTICAL MILES OVER SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE, 180 NAUTICAL MILES ELSEWHERE. RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 90 NAUTICAL MILES OVER SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE, 60 NAUTICAL MILES ELSEWHERE. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 240 NAUTICAL MILES. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 030300 UTC ONE NINE POINT FOUR DEGREES NORTH (19.4 N) ONE ONE TWO POINT TWO DEGREES EAST (112.2 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 65 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 040300 UTC TWO ZERO POINT FIVE DEGREES NORTH (20.5 N) ONE ZERO NINE POINT SEVEN DEGREES EAST (109.7 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 60 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 050300 UTC TWO ONE POINT FIVE DEGREES NORTH (21.5 N) ONE ZERO EIGHT POINT SEVEN DEGREES EAST (108.7 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 55 KNOTS. ** WTPQ20 BABJ 020500 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TY PRAPIROON 0606 (0606) INITIAL TIME 020500 UTC 00HR 18.9N 114.7E 975HPA 33M/S 30KTS 400KM 50KTS 100KM P12HR NW 15KM/H= ** WTNT80 EGRR 020542 *** MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 02.08.2006 TROPICAL STORM CHRIS ANALYSED POSITION : 17.8N 61.1W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL032006 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 02.08.2006 17.8N 61.1W WEAK 12UTC 02.08.2006 19.2N 63.2W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 03.08.2006 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH TROPICAL STORM FABIO ANALYSED POSITION : 14.8N 127.9W ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP072006 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 02.08.2006 14.8N 127.9W WEAK 12UTC 02.08.2006 13.9N 130.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 03.08.2006 14.6N 133.1W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 03.08.2006 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH TROPICAL STORM GILMA ANALYSED POSITION : 14.4N 106.5W ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP082006 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 02.08.2006 14.4N 106.5W WEAK 12UTC 02.08.2006 15.1N 106.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 03.08.2006 16.0N 108.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 03.08.2006 16.7N 109.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 04.08.2006 17.8N 110.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 04.08.2006 19.7N 111.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 05.08.2006 21.3N 111.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 05.08.2006 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 72 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 72 : 12.6N 22.5W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 05.08.2006 12.6N 22.5W WEAK 12UTC 05.08.2006 12.4N 25.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 06.08.2006 11.8N 28.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 06.08.2006 11.9N 31.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 07.08.2006 12.4N 33.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 07.08.2006 12.9N 35.6W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 08.08.2006 13.6N 38.1W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 020542 ** WTNT33 KNHC 020558 *** TCPAT3 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM CHRIS INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 6A NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032006 200 AM AST WED AUG 02 2006 ...CHRIS BRUSHING THE NORTHERNMOST LEEWARD ISLANDS... ...SOME TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS DISCONTINUED... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE ISLANDS OF ANTIGUA...BARBUDA...ANGUILLA...ST. KITTS...NEVIS...ST. BARTHELEMY...ST. MARTIN...AND ST. MAARTEN. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS WILL LIKELY BE DISCONTINUED LATER THIS MORNING FOR SOME OF THESE ISLANDS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. AND BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS. AT 2 AM AST...0600 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE NETHERLANDS ANTILLES HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR SABA AND ST. EUSTATIUS. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 200 AM AST...0600Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CHRIS WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 62.2 WEST OR ABOUT 65 MILES... 110 KM...EAST-NORTHEAST OF ST. MAARTEN IN THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS. CHRIS IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/HR... AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF CHRIS WILL MOVE NEAR OR OVER THE NORTHERNMOST LEEWARD ISLANDS TONIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS... AND CHRIS COULD BECOME A HURRICANE LATER TODAY. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 40 MILES...65 KM FROM THE CENTER. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE RECENTLY REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS 1002 MB...29.59 INCHES. REPEATING THE 200 AM AST POSITION...18.5 N...62.2 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB. CHRIS IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES OVER THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS...THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS...AND PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 8 INCHES THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 500 AM AST. $$ FORECASTER STEWART