** WTCA43 TJSJ 011808 *** TCPSP3 BOLETIN TORMENTA TROPICAL CHRIS ADVERTENCIA INTERMEDIA NUMERO 3A NWS TCP/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL 200 PM AST MARTES 1 DE AGOSTO DE 2006 ...CHRIS ACERCANDOSE HACIA EL NORTE DE LAS ISLAS DE SOTAVENTO... ESTA EN EFECTO UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL PARA LAS ISLAS DE ANTIGUA...BARBUDA...ANGUILLA...SAN KITTS...NEVIS...SABA...ST.EUSTATIUS ST. BARTHELEMY...ST MARTIN...Y ST. MAARTEN. UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SIGNIFICA QUE CONDICIONES DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SON POSIBLES DENTRO DEL AREA BAJO VIGILANCIA...GENERALMENTE DENTRO DE LAS PROXIMAS 12 A 24 HORAS. UNA VIGILANCIA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL ESTA EN EFECTO PARA PUERTO RICO Y LAS ISLAS VIRGENES AMERICANAS...Y PARA LAS ISLAS VIRGENES BRITANICAS. UNA VIGILANCIA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SIGNIFICA QUE CONDICIONES DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SON POSIBLES DENTRO DEL AREA BAJO VIGILANCIA...GENERALMENTE DENTRO DE LAS PROXIMAS 36 HORAS. PARA INFORMACION ESPECIFICA PARA SU AREA...INCLUYENDO POSIBLES VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS PARA AREAS TERRESTRES...FAVOR DE REFERIRSE A LOS PRODUCTOS EMITIDOS POR SU OFICINA METEOROLOGICA LOCAL. A LAS 2 PM AST...1800Z...EL CENTRO DE LA TORMENTA TROPICAL CHRIS ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 17.6 NORTE...LONGITUD 60.9 OESTE O COMO A 65 MILLAS...110 KILOMETROS...AL ESTE NORESTE DE ANTIGUA. CHRIS SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL OESTE-NOROESTE A CERCA DE 10 MPH...17 KILOMETROS POR HORA...Y ESTE MOVIMIENTO GENERAL SE PRONOSTICA DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. EN LA TRAYECTORIA ACTUAL...CHRIS SE ESPERA QUE SE MUEVA SOBRE O CERCA DEL NORTE DE LAS ISLAS DE SOTAVENTO MAS TARDE EN EL DIA DE HOY O ESTA NOCHE. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS ESTAN EN CERCA DE 40 MPH...65 KILOMETROS POR HORA...CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. ES POSIBLE ALGUN FORTALECIMIENTO DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. UN AVION DE RECONOCIMIENTO SE ESTA ACERCANDO A LA TORMENTA TROPICAL Y PROVEERA UN MEJOR ESTIMADO DE LA FUERZA Y LOCALIZACION DE ESTE SISTEMA. LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SE EXTIENDEN HACIA AFUERA HASTA 35 MILLAS...55 KILOMETROS FUERA DEL CENTRO. LA PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA ESTIMADA ES DE 1009 MB...29.80 PULGADAS. SON POSIBLES CANTIDADES DE LLUVIA DE 3 A 5 PULGADAS CON CANTIDADES AISLADAS MAYORES HASTA CERCA DE 8 PULGADAS...SOBRE LAS ISLAS DE SOTAVENTO NORTE ASOCIADAS CON CHRIS. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 2:00 PM AST...17.6 NORTE...60.9 OESTE. SE MUEVE AL...OESTE-NOROESTE A CERCA DE 10 MPH. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS...40 MPH. LA PRESION MINIMA CENTRAL...1009 MILIBARAS. LA PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 500 PM AST. $$ ** WTPQ20 BABJ 011800 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST STS PRAPIROON 0606 (0606) INITIAL TIME 011800 UTC 00HR 17.6N 116.1E 985HPA 25M/S 30KTS 300KM 50KTS 50KM P12HR WNW 15KM/H= ** WTPQ20 BABJ 011800 CCA *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST STS PRAPIROON 0606 (0606) INITIAL TIME 011800 UTC 00HR 17.6N 116.1E 985HPA 25M/S 30KTS 300KM 50KTS 50KM P12HR WNW 15KM/H P+24HR 18.5N 113.7E 970HPA 35M/S P+48HR 19.3N 111.9E 970HPA 35M/S P+72HR 21.1N 110.3E 980HPA 30M/S= ** WTCA43 TJSJ 011851 CCA *** TCPSP3 BOLETIN TORMENTA TROPICAL CHRIS ADVERTENCIA INTERMEDIA NUMERO 3A NWS TCP/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL 200 PM AST MARTES 1 DE AGOSTO DE 2006 ...CHRIS ACERCANDOSE HACIA EL NORTE DE LAS ISLAS DE SOTAVENTO... ESTA EN EFECTO UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL PARA LAS ISLAS DE ANTIGUA...BARBUDA...ANGUILLA...SAN KITTS...NEVIS...SABA...ST.EUSTATIUS ST. BARTHELEMY...ST MARTIN...Y ST. MAARTEN. UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SIGNIFICA QUE CONDICIONES DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SON POSIBLES DENTRO DEL AREA BAJO VIGILANCIA...GENERALMENTE DENTRO DE LAS PROXIMAS 12 A 24 HORAS. UNA VIGILANCIA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL ESTA EN EFECTO PARA PUERTO RICO Y LAS ISLAS VIRGENES AMERICANAS...Y PARA LAS ISLAS VIRGENES BRITANICAS. UNA VIGILANCIA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SIGNIFICA QUE CONDICIONES DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SON POSIBLES DENTRO DEL AREA BAJO VIGILANCIA...GENERALMENTE DENTRO DE LAS PROXIMAS 36 HORAS. PARA INFORMACION ESPECIFICA PARA SU AREA...INCLUYENDO POSIBLES VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS PARA AREAS TERRESTRES...FAVOR DE REFERIRSE A LOS PRODUCTOS EMITIDOS POR SU OFICINA METEOROLOGICA LOCAL. A LAS 2 PM AST...1800Z...EL CENTRO DE LA TORMENTA TROPICAL CHRIS ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 17.6 NORTE...LONGITUD 60.9 OESTE O COMO A 65 MILLAS...110 KILOMETROS...AL ESTE NORESTE DE ANTIGUA. CHRIS SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL OESTE-NOROESTE A CERCA DE 10 MPH...17 KILOMETROS POR HORA...Y ESTE MOVIMIENTO GENERAL SE PRONOSTICA DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. EN LA TRAYECTORIA ACTUAL...CHRIS SE ESPERA QUE SE MUEVA SOBRE O CERCA DEL NORTE DE LAS ISLAS DE SOTAVENTO MAS TARDE EN EL DIA DE HOY O ESTA NOCHE. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS ESTAN EN CERCA DE 40 MPH...65 KILOMETROS POR HORA...CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. ES POSIBLE ALGUN FORTALECIMIENTO DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. UN AVION DE RECONOCIMIENTO SE ESTA ACERCANDO A LA TORMENTA TROPICAL Y PROVEERA UN MEJOR ESTIMADO DE LA FUERZA Y LOCALIZACION DE ESTE SISTEMA. LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SE EXTIENDEN HACIA AFUERA HASTA 35 MILLAS...55 KILOMETROS FUERA DEL CENTRO. LA PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA ESTIMADA ES DE 1009 MB...29.80 PULGADAS. SON POSIBLES CANTIDADES DE LLUVIA DE 3 A 5 PULGADAS CON CANTIDADES AISLADAS MAYORES HASTA CERCA DE 8 PULGADAS...SOBRE LAS ISLAS DE SOTAVENTO NORTE ASOCIADAS CON CHRIS. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 2:00 PM AST...17.6 NORTE...60.9 OESTE. SE MUEVE AL...OESTE-NOROESTE A CERCA DE 10 MPH. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS...40 MPH. LA PRESION MINIMA CENTRAL...1009 MILIBARAS. LA PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 500 PM AST. $$ ** WTPQ20 RJTD 011800 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME STS 0606 PRAPIROON (0606) UPGRADED FROM TS ANALYSIS PSTN 011800UTC 17.5N 116.0E FAIR MOVE W 06KT PRES 985HPA MXWD 050KT 30KT 200NM FORECAST 24HF 021800UTC 18.4N 113.2E 80NM 70% MOVE W 07KT PRES 975HPA MXWD 060KT 48HF 031800UTC 19.7N 111.0E 150NM 70% MOVE WNW SLOWLY PRES 970HPA MXWD 065KT 72HF 041800UTC 21.1N 109.3E 220NM 70% MOVE NW SLOWLY PRES 975HPA MXWD 060KT = ** WTJP21 RJTD 011800 *** WARNING 011800. WARNING VALID 021800. WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS. STORM WARNING. SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 0606 PRAPIROON (0606) UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL STORM 985 HPA AT 17.5N 116.0E SOUTH CHINA SEA MOVING WEST 06 KNOTS. POSITION FAIR. MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 200 MILES. FORECAST POSITION FOR 021800UTC AT 18.4N 113.2E WITH 80 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 975 HPA, MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. FORECAST POSITION FOR 031800UTC AT 19.7N 111.0E WITH 150 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 970 HPA, MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. FORECAST POSITION FOR 041800UTC AT 21.1N 109.3E WITH 220 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 975 HPA, MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTCA82 TJSJ 011901 *** HLSSJU PRZ001>013-VIZ001-002-AMZ710>750-012130- BULLETIN- TROPICAL STORM CHRIS LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR 1130 AM AST TUE AUG 1 2006 ...TROPICAL STORM CHRIS APPROACHING THE NORTHERNMOST LEEWARD ISLANDS...AND HAS NOT STRENGTHENED... ...A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO... ...NEW INFORMATION... UPDATED STORM LOCATION. UPDATED RAINFALL AMOUNTS. ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT RECOMMENDS ACTIONS TO BE TAKEN BY RESIDENTS AND VISITORS OF THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO. ...WATCHES/WARNINGS... A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 36 HOURS OR LESS. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 200 PM AST...TROPICAL STORM CHRIS WAS LOCATED AT LATITUDE 17.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 60.9 WEST...OR ABOUT...65 MILES EAST NORTHEAST OF ANTIGUA...OR ABOUT 240 MILES EAST OF ST CROIX OR ABOUT 275 MILES EAST OF ST THOMAS OR ABOUT 355 MILES EAST SOUTHEAST OF SAN JUAN. THE TROPICAL STORM WAS MOVING WEST NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH...WITH THIS GENERAL MOTION EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 40 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS APPROACHING THE STORM AND WILL WILL YIELD A MORE ACCURATE BASIS FOR ISSUING...WARNINGS IF NECESSARY...FOR THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND OR PUERTO RICO. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... RESIDENTS AND VISITORS OF THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS PUERTO RICO SHOULD CONTINUE TO MAKE PREPARATIONS FOR POSSIBLE TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS BEGINNING LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE MAIN IMPACT FROM CHRIS AT THIS TIME IS HEAVY RAINFALL AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE. ...WINDS... TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES...FROM THE CENTER OF CHRIS. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TONIGHT OVER THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS...WITH SUSTAINED WINDS FORECAST TO REACH AROUND 35 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS BY EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING AS TROPICAL STORM CHRIS APPROACHES THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS. BASED ON THE LATEST TRACK THE STORM CENTER IS FORECAST TO PASS CLOSE TO ST THOMAS AND ST JOHN WITH TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY MORNING. WINDS OVER PUERTO RICO ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE TO NEAR 30 MPH BY WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH STRONGER GUSTS ALONG THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE ISLAND AND IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS BASED ON THE LATEST TRACK. CURRENTLY SUSTAINED TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN OFFSHORE...BUT INTERESTED PARTIES SHOULD MONITOR THIS CLOSELY AS ANY INCREASE IN THE INTENSITY OR A MORE WESTWARD TRACK COULD BRING THE STORM CLOSER TO THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO...AND MORE SIGNIFICANT STORM EFFECTS. ...INLAND FLOODING... SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE WESTERN FRINGES OF TROPICAL STORM CHRIS SHOULD BEGIN LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS...CULEBRA AND VIEQUES AND OVER THE EASTERN SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. HEAVY RAINS ARE LIKELY AS THE CENTER OF THE STORM CROSSES NORTHEAST OF THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO ON ITS FORECAST TRACK WITH A RISK OF SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL AND FLOODING WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE SURFACE WINDS CHANGE TO THE SOUTHEAST BEHIND THE CENTER OF THE STORM. RAINFALL TOTALS OF AT LEAST THREE TO SIX INCHES ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST INTERIOR SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO AND THE NORTHERN SLOPES OF THE ISLAND. RIVERS ACROSS PUERTO RICO COULD EXPERIENCE RAPID RISES WITH SOME RIVERS EXCEEDING BANKFULL ON WEDNESDAY. ...MARINE IMPACTS... SMALL CRAFT SHOULD PLAN TO RETURN TO SAFE HARBOR THIS AFTERNOON AND PLAN TO REMAIN IN PORT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SEAS WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE LOCAL ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS AND THROUGH THE ANEGADA PASSAGE AND THE ATLANTIC THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND WILL LIKELY REACH 10 TO 13 FEET AS TROPICAL STORM CHRIS PASSES. HIGH SURF ADVISORIES AND COASTAL FLOOD WATCHES ARE LIKELY TO BE ISSUED LATER TODAY OR THIS EVENING. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY 530 PM AST BY YOUR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE IN SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO. $$ MOJICA ** WTCA82 TJSJ 011902 CCA *** HLSSJU PRZ001>013-VIZ001-002-AMZ710>750-012130- BULLETIN- TROPICAL STORM CHRIS LOCAL STATEMENT...CORRECTED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR 300 PM AST TUE AUG 1 2006 ...CORRECTED ISSUANCE TIME... ...TROPICAL STORM CHRIS APPROACHING THE NORTHERNMOST LEEWARD ISLANDS...AND HAS NOT STRENGTHENED... ...A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO... ...NEW INFORMATION... UPDATED STORM LOCATION. ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT RECOMMENDS ACTIONS TO BE TAKEN BY RESIDENTS AND VISITORS OF THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO. ...WATCHES/WARNINGS... A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 36 HOURS OR LESS. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 200 PM AST...TROPICAL STORM CHRIS WAS LOCATED AT LATITUDE 17.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 60.9 WEST...OR ABOUT...65 MILES EAST NORTHEAST OF ANTIGUA...OR ABOUT 240 MILES EAST OF ST CROIX OR ABOUT 275 MILES EAST OF ST THOMAS OR ABOUT 355 MILES EAST SOUTHEAST OF SAN JUAN. THE TROPICAL STORM WAS MOVING WEST NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH...WITH THIS GENERAL MOTION EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 40 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS APPROACHING THE STORM AND WILL WILL YIELD A MORE ACCURATE BASIS FOR ISSUING...WARNINGS IF NECESSARY...FOR THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND OR PUERTO RICO. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... RESIDENTS AND VISITORS OF THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS PUERTO RICO SHOULD CONTINUE TO MAKE PREPARATIONS FOR POSSIBLE TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS BEGINNING LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE MAIN IMPACT FROM CHRIS AT THIS TIME IS HEAVY RAINFALL AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE. ...WINDS... TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES...FROM THE CENTER OF CHRIS. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TONIGHT OVER THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS...WITH SUSTAINED WINDS FORECAST TO REACH AROUND 35 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS BY EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING AS TROPICAL STORM CHRIS APPROACHES THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS. BASED ON THE LATEST TRACK THE STORM CENTER IS FORECAST TO PASS CLOSE TO ST THOMAS AND ST JOHN WITH TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY MORNING. WINDS OVER PUERTO RICO ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE TO NEAR 30 MPH BY WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH STRONGER GUSTS ALONG THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE ISLAND AND IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS BASED ON THE LATEST TRACK. CURRENTLY SUSTAINED TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN OFFSHORE...BUT INTERESTED PARTIES SHOULD MONITOR THIS CLOSELY AS ANY INCREASE IN THE INTENSITY OR A MORE WESTWARD TRACK COULD BRING THE STORM CLOSER TO THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO...AND MORE SIGNIFICANT STORM EFFECTS. ...INLAND FLOODING... SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE WESTERN FRINGES OF TROPICAL STORM CHRIS SHOULD BEGIN LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS...CULEBRA AND VIEQUES AND OVER THE EASTERN SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. HEAVY RAINS ARE LIKELY AS THE CENTER OF THE STORM CROSSES NORTHEAST OF THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO ON ITS FORECAST TRACK WITH A RISK OF SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL AND FLOODING WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE SURFACE WINDS CHANGE TO THE SOUTHEAST BEHIND THE CENTER OF THE STORM. RAINFALL TOTALS OF AT LEAST THREE TO SIX INCHES ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST INTERIOR SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO AND THE NORTHERN SLOPES OF THE ISLAND. RIVERS ACROSS PUERTO RICO COULD EXPERIENCE RAPID RISES WITH SOME RIVERS EXCEEDING BANKFULL ON WEDNESDAY. ...MARINE IMPACTS... SMALL CRAFT SHOULD PLAN TO RETURN TO SAFE HARBOR THIS AFTERNOON AND PLAN TO REMAIN IN PORT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SEAS WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE LOCAL ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS AND THROUGH THE ANEGADA PASSAGE AND THE ATLANTIC THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND WILL LIKELY REACH 10 TO 13 FEET AS TROPICAL STORM CHRIS PASSES. HIGH SURF ADVISORIES AND COASTAL FLOOD WATCHES ARE LIKELY TO BE ISSUED LATER TODAY OR THIS EVENING. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY 530 PM AST BY YOUR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE IN SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO. $$ MOJICA ** WTKO20 RKSL 011800 *** KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 2 NAME STS 0606 PRAPIROON ANALYSIS POSITION 011800UTC 17.5N 116.1E MOVEMENT W 6KT PRES/VMAX 985HPA 51KT FORECAST 24HR POSITION 021800UTC 18.7N 113.6E WITHIN 80NM PRES/VMAX 975HPA 58KT 48HR POSITION 031800UTC 20.1N 111.1E WITHIN 145NM PRES/VMAX 970HPA 62KT 72HR POSITION 041800UTC 21.9N 109.0E WITHIN 215NM PRES/VMAX 970HPA 62KT KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION. ** WTPQ20 BABJ 011900 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST STS PRAPIROON 0606 (0606) INITIAL TIME 011900 UTC 00HR 17.6N 116.0E 985HPA 25M/S 30KTS 300KM 50KTS 50KM P12HR WNW 10KM/H= ** WTSS20 VHHH 011945 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING TROPICAL STORM PRAPIROON (0606) HAS INTENSIFIED INTO A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 985 HECTOPASCALS. AT 011800 UTC, IT WAS CENTRED WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES OF ONE SEVEN POINT SIX DEGREES NORTH (17.6 N) ONE ONE FIVE POINT NINE DEGREES EAST (115.9 E) AND IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN AND MOVE WEST-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 8 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 50 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 180 NAUTICAL MILES OVER SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE, 120 NAUTICAL MILES ELSEWHERE. RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 40 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 240 NAUTICAL MILES. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 021800 UTC ONE EIGHT POINT SIX DEGREES NORTH (18.6 N) ONE ONE THREE POINT THREE DEGREES EAST (113.3 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 60 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 031800 UTC ONE NINE POINT SEVEN DEGREES NORTH (19.7 N) ONE ONE TWO POINT ONE DEGREES EAST (112.1 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 65 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 041800 UTC TWO ZERO POINT FIVE DEGREES NORTH (20.5 N) ONE ONE ONE POINT FOUR DEGREES EAST (111.4 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 65 KNOTS. ** WTSS20 VHHH 011945 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING TROPICAL STORM PRAPIROON (0606) HAS INTENSIFIED INTO A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 985 HECTOPASCALS. AT 011800 UTC, IT WAS CENTRED WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES OF ONE SEVEN POINT SIX DEGREES NORTH (17.6 N) ONE ONE FIVE POINT NINE DEGREES EAST (115.9 E) AND IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN AND MOVE WEST-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 8 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 50 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 180 NAUTICAL MILES OVER SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE, 120 NAUTICAL MILES ELSEWHERE. RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 40 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 240 NAUTICAL MILES. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 021800 UTC ONE EIGHT POINT SIX DEGREES NORTH (18.6 N) ONE ONE THREE POINT THREE DEGREES EAST (113.3 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 60 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 031800 UTC ONE NINE POINT SEVEN DEGREES NORTH (19.7 N) ONE ONE TWO POINT ONE DEGREES EAST (112.1 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 65 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 041800 UTC TWO ZERO POINT FIVE DEGREES NORTH (20.5 N) ONE ONE ONE POINT FOUR DEGREES EAST (111.4 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 65 KNOTS. ** WTSS20 VHHH 011945 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING TROPICAL STORM PRAPIROON (0606) HAS INTENSIFIED INTO A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 985 HECTOPASCALS. AT 011800 UTC, IT WAS CENTRED WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES OF ONE SEVEN POINT SIX DEGREES NORTH (17.6 N) ONE ONE FIVE POINT NINE DEGREES EAST (115.9 E) AND IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN AND MOVE WEST-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 8 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 50 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 180 NAUTICAL MILES OVER SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE, 120 NAUTICAL MILES ELSEWHERE. RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 40 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 240 NAUTICAL MILES. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 021800 UTC ONE EIGHT POINT SIX DEGREES NORTH (18.6 N) ONE ONE THREE POINT THREE DEGREES EAST (113.3 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 60 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 031800 UTC ONE NINE POINT SEVEN DEGREES NORTH (19.7 N) ONE ONE TWO POINT ONE DEGREES EAST (112.1 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 65 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 041800 UTC TWO ZERO POINT FIVE DEGREES NORTH (20.5 N) ONE ONE ONE POINT FOUR DEGREES EAST (111.4 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 65 KNOTS. ** WTPQ20 BABJ 012000 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST STS PRAPIROON 0606 (0606) INITIAL TIME 012000 UTC 00HR 17.6N 115.9E 985HPA 25M/S 30KTS 300KM 50KTS 50KM P12HR WNW 10KM/H= ** WTPZ43 KNHC 012032 *** TCDEP3 TROPICAL STORM GILMA DISCUSSION NUMBER 4 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082006 200 PM PDT TUE AUG 01 2006 VISIBLE IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER OF GILMA IS NOW EXPOSED EAST OF THE MAIN CONVECTION DUE TO EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. HOWEVER...THE CONVECTION REMAINS QUITE VIGOROUS WITH CLOUD TOPS TO -80C. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM ALL AGENCIES ARE 35 KT...SO THAT REMAINS THE INITIAL INTENSITY. THE EXPOSED CENTER AND PREVIOUS MICROWAVE IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT THE MOTION IS TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...310/7. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND LARGE-SCALE MODEL ANALYSES INDICATE BROAD DEEP-LAYER TROUGHING OFF THE WEST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES NORTH OF 30N...MID/UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING OVER NORTHWESTERN MEXICO AND BAJA CALIFORNIA...AND A MID/UPPER-LEVEL LOW OR TROUGH OVER CENTRAL MEXICO. THE WEST COAST TROUGH IS FORECAST TO AMPLIFY SOUTHWARD BY 72-120 HR. LARGE-SCALE MODELS GENERALLY RESPOND TO THIS PATTERN EVOLUTION BY KEEPING ENOUGH RIDGING NORTH OF GILMA TO MOVE IT WESTWARD THROUGH 120 HR. ON THE OTHER HAND...THE BAM MODELS... LBAR...AND THE FSU SUPERENSEMBLE CALL FOR A NORTHWESTWARD TURN AFTER 72 HR. THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS INITIALIZED GILMA RATHER POORLY...EXCEPT THE UKMET WHICH TRACKS THE STORM NORTHWESTWARD UNTIL DISSIPATION. ADDITIONALLY...THE OTHER GUIDANCE DOES NOT SEEM TO REFLECT THE CURRENT MOTION VERY WELL. SO...THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS SHIFTED NORTHWARD FOR THE FIRST 36-48 HR TO REFLECT THE CURRENT MOTION...AND SHIFTED SOMEWHAT SOUTHWARD AFTER 96 HR TO REFLECT THE POSSIBILITY THAT THE WEST COAST TROUGH WILL NOT DEEPEN FAR ENOUGH SOUTHWARD TO STRONGLY TURN GILMA. LARGE-SCALE MODELS SUGGEST THAT GILMA WILL REMAIN IN EASTERLY SHEAR THROUGH 36-48 HR...WHICH WILL AT LEAST SLOW INTENSIFICATION. THE SHEAR DECREASES SOMEWHAT AFTER THAT TIME...BUT THE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK START DECREASING ABOUT THAT TIME. BASED ON THIS...THE INTENSITY FORECAST WILL CALL FOR SLOW STRENGTHENING UNTIL 48 HR...AND SLOW WEAKENING THEREAFTER. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS STRONGER THAN ALL THE GUIDANCE...SO GILMA COULD STRENGTHEN LESS THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 01/2100Z 14.4N 105.6W 35 KT 12HR VT 02/0600Z 15.0N 106.5W 35 KT 24HR VT 02/1800Z 15.3N 107.9W 40 KT 36HR VT 03/0600Z 15.7N 109.5W 45 KT 48HR VT 03/1800Z 16.0N 111.2W 50 KT 72HR VT 04/1800Z 17.0N 114.5W 45 KT 96HR VT 05/1800Z 18.5N 117.5W 40 KT 120HR VT 06/1800Z 21.0N 119.5W 35 KT $$ FORECASTER BEVEN ** WTPZ23 KNHC 012032 *** TCMEP3 TROPICAL STORM GILMA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082006 2100 UTC TUE AUG 01 2006 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.4N 105.6W AT 01/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 7 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 0NE 0SE 60SW 60NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 0NE 0SE 60SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.4N 105.6W AT 01/2100Z AT 01/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.2N 105.4W FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 15.0N 106.5W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 30SE 60SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 15.3N 107.9W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 60SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 15.7N 109.5W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 50SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 16.0N 111.2W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 65NE 50SE 50SW 65NW. FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 17.0N 114.5W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 40SE 40SW 60NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 05/1800Z 18.5N 117.5W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 06/1800Z 21.0N 119.5W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.4N 105.6W NEXT ADVISORY AT 02/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN ** WTPZ22 KNHC 012040 *** TCMEP2 TROPICAL STORM FABIO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072006 2100 UTC TUE AUG 01 2006 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.0N 127.3W AT 01/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 13 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT....... 50NE 30SE 30SW 60NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.0N 127.3W AT 01/2100Z AT 01/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.9N 126.6W FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 15.2N 129.3W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 60NE 40SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 15.7N 132.0W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 60NE 40SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 16.1N 134.7W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 16.2N 137.4W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 16.5N 142.5W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 25SE 25SW 40NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 05/1800Z 16.5N 147.5W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 06/1800Z 16.5N 152.5W...REMNANT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.0N 127.3W NEXT ADVISORY AT 02/0300Z $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS/PASCH ** WTNT43 KNHC 012041 *** TCDAT3 TROPICAL STORM CHRIS DISCUSSION NUMBER 4 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032006 500 PM EDT TUE AUG 01 2006 ON THE FIRST AIRCRAFT MISSION INTO CHRIS...THE AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT HURRICANE HUNTERS FOUND A VERY SMALL CORE OF STRONG WINDS WITH A CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 1007 MB. THIS IS ACTUALLY A RATHER LOW PRESSURE CONSIDERING THE HIGH ENVIRONMENTAL BAROMETER READINGS. MAXIMUM FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS WERE 53 KT JUST TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER. BASED ON THE STANDARD 80 PERCENT REDUCTION FROM THE 1000 FT FLIGHT LEVEL THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS SET AT 40 KT. THE ENVIRONMENT IS RELATIVELY STABLE...SOME NORTH-NORTHWESTERLY VERTICAL SHEAR IS IMPACTING THE SYSTEM...AND THE GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO FORECAST WEAKENING. HOWEVER...THERE IS A WELL-MARKED UPPER-TROPOSPHERIC OUTFLOW CHANNEL EMANATING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD FROM CHRIS...AND A FAIR AMOUNT OF OUTFLOW IS ALSO EVIDENT OVER THE EASTERN QUADRANT. THIS DIVERGENCE ALOFT COULD ALLOW ADDITIONAL INTENSIFICATION. ADDITIONALLY THE GFDL MODEL FORECASTS STRENGTHENING UNTIL THE MODELED CIRCULATION INTERACTS WITH HISPANIOLA. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CLOSELY FOLLOWS THE SHIPS GUIDANCE...WHICH DOES SHOW A SLIGHT DECREASE IN VERTICAL SHEAR AFTER A COUPLE OF DAYS. A MID-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE EXISTS TO THE NORTH OF CHRIS WITH A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL WEAKNESS IN THE VICINITY OF 70W LONGITUDE. THE TROUGH NEAR 70W IS FORECAST TO SHIFT WESTWARD WITH TIME SO THAT THE RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE IS MAINTAINED...OR EVEN STRENGTHENED. DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE MODEL TRACKS HAVE BEEN GRADUALLY SHIFTING TO THE LEFT OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF RUNS...MOST LIKELY IN RESPONSE TO A BUILDING RIDGE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS THEREFORE ADJUSTED A LITTLE TO THE LEFT OF THAT FROM THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE. THIS IS NORTH OF THE LATEST DYNAMICAL CONSENSUS AND THE FSU SUPERENSEMBLE TRACK. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. AND BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS. THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE NORTHERN LEEWARDS IS MAINTAINED AT THIS TIME. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT...EVEN IF THE CENTER OF CHRIS PASSES JUST TO THE NORTH OF SOME OF THESE ISLANDS...RATHER STRONG WINDS COULD BE EXPERIENCED IN THE ISLANDS DUE TO RAIN BANDS OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE STORM. IN FACT AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS THAT THE HEAVIEST WEATHER IS OCCURRING OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE CIRCULATION. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 01/2100Z 17.7N 61.2W 40 KT 12HR VT 02/0600Z 18.3N 62.6W 45 KT 24HR VT 02/1800Z 19.1N 64.5W 45 KT 36HR VT 03/0600Z 19.9N 66.6W 50 KT 48HR VT 03/1800Z 20.5N 68.7W 50 KT 72HR VT 04/1800Z 21.5N 73.0W 50 KT 96HR VT 05/1800Z 22.5N 77.0W 55 KT 120HR VT 06/1800Z 23.5N 80.5W 55 KT $$ FORECASTER PASCH ** WTNT33 KNHC 012042 *** TCPAT3 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM CHRIS ADVISORY NUMBER 4 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032006 500 PM AST TUE AUG 01 2006 ...CHRIS A LITTLE STRONGER...APPROACHING NORTHERNMOST LEEWARD ISLANDS... AT 5 PM AST...2100 UTC...THE METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE OF ANTIGUA HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS. ALSO AT 5 PM AST...2100 UTC...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ISLANDS OF ANTIGUA...BARBUDA...ANGUILLA...ST. KITTS...NEVIS...SABA...ST. EUSTATIUS...ST. BARTHELEMY...ST. MARTIN...AND ST. MAARTEN. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 500 PM AST...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CHRIS WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 61.2 WEST OR ABOUT 55 MILES... 90 KM...NORTHEAST OF ANTIGUA. CHRIS IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/HR... AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF THE STORM WILL BE PASSING NEAR OR OVER THE NORTHERNMOST LEEWARD ISLANDS TONIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY. REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME ADDITIONAL INCREASE IN STRENGTH IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES...35 KM FROM THE CENTER. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE OBSERVED BY THE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE WAS 1007 MB...29.74 INCHES. REPEATING THE 500 PM AST POSITION...17.7 N...61.2 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB. AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 800 PM AST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1100 PM AST. $$ FORECASTER PASCH ** WTNT23 KNHC 012042 *** TCMAT3 TROPICAL STORM CHRIS FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032006 2100 UTC TUE AUG 01 2006 AT 5 PM AST...2100 UTC...THE METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE OF ANTIGUA HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS. ALSO AT 5 PM AST...2100 UTC...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ISLANDS OF ANTIGUA...BARBUDA...ANGUILLA...ST. KITTS...NEVIS...SABA...ST. EUSTATIUS...ST. BARTHELEMY...ST. MARTIN...AND ST. MAARTEN. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.7N 61.2W AT 01/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT....... 20NE 20SE 20SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 40NE 40SE 20SW 30NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.7N 61.2W AT 01/2100Z AT 01/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.6N 60.7W FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 18.3N 62.6W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 19.1N 64.5W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 19.9N 66.6W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 20.5N 68.7W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 21.5N 73.0W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 05/1800Z 22.5N 77.0W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 06/1800Z 23.5N 80.5W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.7N 61.2W NEXT ADVISORY AT 02/0300Z $$ FORECASTER PASCH ** WTPZ42 KNHC 012046 *** TCDEP2 TROPICAL STORM FABIO DISCUSSION NUMBER 5 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072006 200 PM PDT TUE AUG 01 2006 ALTHOUGH THE OVERALL CLOUD PATTERN DOES NOT APPEAR AS IMPRESSIVE AS IT DID THIS MORNING...CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE IS SUFFICIENT ENOUGH TO MAINTAIN AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 45 KT. THE INTENSITY FORECAST REMAINS VIRTUALLY UNCHANGED FROM THIS MORNING'S PACKAGE. INCREASING SOUTHEASTERLY SHEAR AND AN UNFAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC AIR MASS SHOULD CAUSE A GRADUAL WEAKENING BEYOND DAY 3...ULTIMATELY TO A NON-CONVECTIVE REMNANT LOW BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 275/13...SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS 6 HOUR MOTION. A STRONG DEEP LAYER RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF FABIO SHOULD STEER THE SYSTEM IN A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION FOR THE NEXT 3 DAYS. THEREAFTER...FABIO IS EXPECTED TO TURN MORE WESTWARD...INFLUENCED BY THE LOW LAYER EASTERLY FLOW OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK FOLLOWS SUIT AND IS BASED ON THE MODEL CONSENSUS AND THE FSU SUPERENSEMBLE. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 01/2100Z 15.0N 127.3W 45 KT 12HR VT 02/0600Z 15.2N 129.3W 50 KT 24HR VT 02/1800Z 15.7N 132.0W 50 KT 36HR VT 03/0600Z 16.1N 134.7W 45 KT 48HR VT 03/1800Z 16.2N 137.4W 45 KT 72HR VT 04/1800Z 16.5N 142.5W 35 KT 96HR VT 05/1800Z 16.5N 147.5W 30 KT 120HR VT 06/1800Z 16.5N 152.5W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS/PASCH ** WTCA43 TJSJ 012055 *** TCPSP3 BOLETIN TORMENTA TROPICAL CHRIS ADVERTENCIA INTERMEDIA NUMERO 4 NWS TCP/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL 500 PM AST MARTES 1 DE AGOSTO DE 2006 ...CHRIS UN POCO MAS FUERTE...ACERCANDOSE A LAS ISLAS MAS NORTE DE LAS ISLAS DE BARLOVENTO... A LAS 5 PM AST...2100 UTC...EL SERVICIO METEOROLOGICO DE ANTIGUA HA EMITIDO UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL PARA LAS ISLAS VIRGENES BRITANICAS. TAMBIEN A LAS 5 PM AST...2100 UTC...SE HA EMITIDO UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL PARA PUERTO RICO Y LAS ISLAS VIRGENES AMERICANAS. CONTINUA EN EFECTO UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL PARA LAS ISLAS DE ANTIGUA...BARBUDA...ANGUILLA...SAN KITTS...NEVIS...SABA...ST.EUSTATIUS ST. BARTHELEMY...ST MARTIN...Y ST. MAARTEN. UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SIGNIFICA QUE SE ESPERAN CONDICIONES DE TORMENTA TROPICAL DENTRO DEL AREA DEL AVISO DENTRO DE LAS PROXIMAS 12 A 24 HORAS. PARA INFORMACION ESPECIFICA PARA SU AREA...INCLUYENDO POSIBLES VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS PARA AREAS TERRESTRES...FAVOR DE REFERIRSE A LOS PRODUCTOS EMITIDOS POR SU OFICINA METEOROLOGICA LOCAL. A LAS 5 PM AST...2100Z...EL CENTRO DE LA TORMENTA TROPICAL CHRIS ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 17.7 NORTE...LONGITUD 61.2 OESTE O COMO A 55 MILLAS...90 KILOMETROS...AL NORESTE DE ANTIGUA. CHRIS SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL OESTE-NOROESTE A CERCA DE 10 MPH...17 KILOMETROS POR HORA...Y ESTE MOVIMIENTO GENERAL SE PRONOSTICA QUE CONTINUARA DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. EN LA TRAYECTORIA ACTUAL...CHRIS ESTARA PASANDO CERCA O SOBRE LAS ISLAS MAS NORTE DE LAS ISLAS DE SOTAVENTO ESTA NOCHE Y TEMPRANO EL MIERCOLES. INFORMES DE UN AVION DE RECONOCIMIENTO DE UNA UNIDAD DE LA RESERVA DE LA FUERZA AEREA INDICAN QUE LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS HAN AUMENTADO HASTA CERCA DE 45 MPH...75 KM/HR...RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. ES POSIBLE QUE OCURRA ALGUN AUMENTO ADICIONAL EN INTENSIDAD DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SE EXTIENDEN HACIA AFUERA HASTA 25 MILLAS...35 KILOMETROS FUERA DEL CENTRO. LA PRESIION MINIMA CENTRAL OBSERVADA POR UN AVION DE RECONOCIMIENTO FUE DE 1007 MILIBARAS...29.75 PULGADAS. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 500 PM AST...17.7 NORTE...61.2 OESTE. SE MUEVE AL...OESTE-NOROESTE A CERCA DE 10 MPH. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS...45 MPH. LA PRESION MINIMA CENTRAL...1007 MILIBARAS. UNA ADVERTENCIA INTERMEDIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 800 PM AST SEGUIDA POR UNA ADVERTENCIA MAS DETALLADA A LAS 1100 PM AST. $$ PRONOTICADOR PASCH ** WTNT83 KNHC 012057 *** TCVAT3 CHRIS WATCH/WARNING BREAKPOINTS/ADVISORY NUMBER 4 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032006 500 PM AST TUE AUG 1 2006 .TROPICAL STORM CHRIS PRC001-003-005-007-009-011-013-015-017-019-021-023-025-027-029- 031-033-035-037-039-041-043-045-047-049-051-053-054-055-057-059- 061-063-065-067-069-071-073-075-077-079-081-083-085-087-089-091- 093-095-097-099-101-103-105-107-109-111-113-115-117-119-121-123- 125-127-129-131-133-135-137-139-141-143-145-147-149-151-153- VIC010-020-030-020300- /E.CAN.KNHC.TR.A.1003.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ /E.NEW.KNHC.TR.W.1003.060801T2100Z-000000T0000Z/ 500 PM AST TUE AUG 1 2006 PUERTO-RICO-ALL 18.20N 66.45W VIRGIN-IS.-(U.S.) 18.05N 64.80W $$ ATTN...WFO...SJU... ** WTNT63 KNHC 012106 *** TCUAT3 TROPICAL STORM CHRIS TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032006 505 PM AST TUE AUG 01 2006 BASED ON A RECENT REPORT FROM THE AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT...THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS IN CHRIS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 60 MPH. A SPECIAL ADVISORY WILL BE RELEASED SHORTLY... PRIMARILY TO MODIFY THE INITIAL AND FORECAST INTENSITY. NO CHANGES IN WATCHES OR WARNINGS ARE REQUIRED AT THIS TIME. $$ FORECASTER PASCH/KNABB ** WTPN31 PGTW 012100 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL STORM 07W (PRAPIROON) WARNING NR 008 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 011800Z --- NEAR 17.8N 115.9E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 280 DEGREES AT 06 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 17.8N 115.9E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 020600Z --- 18.1N 114.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 021800Z --- 18.5N 112.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 030600Z --- 18.9N 111.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 06 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 031800Z --- 19.4N 110.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 041800Z --- 20.4N 108.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 04 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 051800Z --- 21.5N 107.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 061800Z --- 22.9N 105.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 012100Z POSITION NEAR 17.9N 115.4E. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 07W (PRAPIROON), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 285 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF HONG KONG, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 011800Z IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 020300Z, 020900Z, 021500Z AND 022100Z.// ** WTPQ20 BABJ 012100 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST STS PRAPIROON 0606 (0606) INITIAL TIME 012100 UTC 00HR 17.6N 115.8E 980HPA 28M/S 30KTS 360KM 50KTS 50KM P12HR WNW 10KM/H= ** WTNT43 KNHC 012128 *** TCDAT3 TROPICAL STORM CHRIS SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER 5 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032006 530 PM EDT TUE AUG 01 2006 THIS SPECIAL ADVISORY IS BEING ISSUED TO ADJUST THE INTENSITY UPWARD TO 50 KT...BASED ON A 64-KT FLIGHT-LEVEL WIND RECENTLY MEASURED BY THE AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTERS. ALSO...THE AIRCRAFT REPORTED THAT THE CENTRAL PRESSURE HAS FALLEN TO 1003 MB. THE FORECAST WIND SPEEDS HAVE ALSO BEEN ADJUSTED UPWARD SOMEWHAT. ONLY A SLIGHT ADJUSTMENT TO THE INITIAL AND 12-HOUR FORECAST LOCATIONS IS MADE USING THE MORE RECENT AIRCRAFT DATA...AND NO CHANGES TO THE WARNINGS ARE REQUIRED AT THIS TIME. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 01/2130Z 18.0N 61.1W 50 KT 12HR VT 02/0600Z 18.5N 62.6W 55 KT 24HR VT 02/1800Z 19.1N 64.5W 60 KT 36HR VT 03/0600Z 19.9N 66.6W 60 KT 48HR VT 03/1800Z 20.5N 68.7W 60 KT 72HR VT 04/1800Z 21.5N 73.0W 65 KT 96HR VT 05/1800Z 22.5N 77.0W 65 KT 120HR VT 06/1800Z 23.5N 80.5W 65 KT $$ FORECASTER PASCH/KNABB ** WTNT33 KNHC 012129 *** TCPAT3 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM CHRIS SPECIAL ADVISORY NUMBER 5 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032006 530 PM AST TUE AUG 01 2006 ...CHRIS STRENGTHENS SOME MORE... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ISLANDS OF ANTIGUA...BARBUDA...ANGUILLA...ST. KITTS...NEVIS...SABA...ST. EUSTATIUS...ST. BARTHELEMY...ST. MARTIN...AND ST. MAARTEN. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. AND BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 530 PM AST...2130Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CHRIS WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 61.1 WEST OR ABOUT 75 MILES...125 KM...NORTHEAST OF ANTIGUA. CHRIS IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/HR... AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THIS TRACK THE CENTER OF CHRIS WILL MOVE NEAR OR OVER THE NORTHERNMOST LEEWARD ISLANDS TONIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY. LATEST REPORTS FROM THE AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE INDICATE THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES...35 KM FROM THE CENTER. THE AIR FORCE PLANCE RECENTLY REPORTED A MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1003 MB...29.62 INCHES. CHRIS IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES OVER THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS...THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS...AND EASTERN PORITONS OF PUERTO RICO...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM ACOUNTS OF 8 INCHES THROUGH WEDNESDAY. REPEATING THE 530 PM AST POSITION...18.0 N...61.1 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB. AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 730 PM AST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1030 PM AST. $$ FORECASTER PASCH/KNABB ** WTNT23 KNHC 012129 *** TCMAT3 TROPICAL STORM CHRIS SPECIAL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032006 2130 UTC TUE AUG 01 2006 A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ISLANDS OF ANTIGUA...BARBUDA...ANGUILLA...ST. KITTS...NEVIS...SABA...ST. EUSTATIUS...ST. BARTHELEMY...ST. MARTIN...AND ST. MAARTEN. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. AND BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.0N 61.1W AT 01/2130Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. 50 KT....... 15NE 15SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT....... 20NE 20SE 20SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 40NE 30SE 0SW 30NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.0N 61.1W AT 01/2130Z AT 01/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.7N 60.6W FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 18.5N 62.6W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 19.1N 64.5W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 19.9N 66.6W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 20.5N 68.7W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 21.5N 73.0W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 05/1800Z 22.5N 77.0W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 06/1800Z 23.5N 80.5W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.0N 61.1W NEXT ADVISORY AT 02/0300Z $$ FORECASTER PASCH/KNABB ** WTNT83 KNHC 012134 *** TCVAT3 CHRIS WATCH/WARNING BREAKPOINTS/ADVISORY NUMBER 4 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032006 500 PM AST TUE AUG 1 2006 .TROPICAL STORM CHRIS PRC001-003-005-007-009-011-013-015-017-019-021-023-025-027-029- 031-033-035-037-039-041-043-045-047-049-051-053-054-055-057-059- 061-063-065-067-069-071-073-075-077-079-081-083-085-087-089-091- 093-095-097-099-101-103-105-107-109-111-113-115-117-119-121-123- 125-127-129-131-133-135-137-139-141-143-145-147-149-151-153- VIC010-020-030-020300- /E.CAN.KNHC.TR.A.1003.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ /E.NEW.KNHC.TR.W.1003.060801T2100Z-000000T0000Z/ 500 PM AST TUE AUG 1 2006 PUERTO-RICO-ALL 18.20N 66.45W VIRGIN-IS.-(U.S.) 18.05N 64.80W $$ ATTN...WFO...SJU... ** WTPQ20 BABJ 012100 CCA *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST STS PRAPIROON 0606 (0606) INITIAL TIME 012100 UTC 00HR 17.6N 115.8E 980HPA 28M/S 30KTS 360KM 50KTS 50KM P12HR WNW 10KM/H P+24HR 18.5N 113.3E 965HPA 40M/S P+48HR 19.4N 111.5E 965HPA 40M/S P+72HR 21.3N 110.0E 975HPA 33M/S= ** WTCA43 TJSJ 012141 *** TCPSP3 BOLETIN TORMENTA TROPICAL CHRIS ADVERTENCIA INTERMEDIA NUMERO 5 NWS TCP/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL 530 PM AST MARTES 1 DE AGOSTO DE 2006 ...CHRIS UN POCO MAS FUERTE... CONTINUA EN EFECTO UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL PARA LAS ISLAS DE ANTIGUA...BARBUDA...ANGUILLA...SAN KITTS...NEVIS...SABA...ST.EUSTATIUS ST. BARTHELEMY...ST MARTIN...Y ST. MAARTEN. UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SIGNIFICA QUE SE ESPERAN CONDICIONES DE TORMENTA TROPICAL DENTRO DEL AREA DEL AVISO DENTRO DE LAS PROXIMAS 12 A 24 HORAS. TAMBIEN SE HA EMITIDO UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL PARA PUERTO RICO Y LAS ISLAS VIRGENES AMERICANAS. A LAS 5 PM AST...2100 UTC...EL SERVICIO METEOROLOGICO DE ANTIGUA HA EMITIDO UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL PARA LAS ISLAS VIRGENES BRITANICAS. TAMBIEN SE HA EMITIDO UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL PARA PUERTO RICO Y LAS ISLAS VIRGENES AMERICANAS. PARA INFORMACION ESPECIFICA PARA SU AREA...INCLUYENDO POSIBLES VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS PARA AREAS TERRESTRES...FAVOR DE REFERIRSE A LOS PRODUCTOS EMITIDOS POR SU OFICINA METEOROLOGICA LOCAL. CONTINUA EN EFECTO UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL PARA LAS ISLAS DE ANTIGUA...BARBUDA...ANGUILLA...SAN KITTS...NEVIS...SABA...ST.EUSTATIUS ST. BARTHELEMY...ST MARTIN...Y ST. MAARTEN. UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SIGNIFICA QUE SE ESPERAN CONDICIONES DE TORMENTA TROPICAL DENTRO DEL AREA DEL AVISO DENTRO DE LAS PROXIMAS 12 A 24 HORAS. A LAS 530 PM AST...2130Z...EL CENTRO DE LA TORMENTA TROPICAL CHRIS ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 18.0 NORTE...LONGITUD 61.1 OESTE O COMO A 75 MILLAS...125 KILOMETROS...AL NORESTE DE ANTIGUA. CHRIS SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL OESTE-NOROESTE A CERCA DE 10 MPH...17 KILOMETROS POR HORA...Y ESTE MOVIMIENTO SE PRONOSTICA QUE CONTINUARA DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. EN LA TRAYECTORIA ACTUAL...CHRIS ESTARA PASANDO CERCA O SOBRE LAS ISLAS MAS NORTE DE LAS ISLAS DE SOTAVENTO ESTA NOCHE Y TEMPRANO EL MIERCOLES. LOS INFORMES MAS RECIENTES DE UN AVION DE RECONOCIMIENTO DE UNA UNIDAD DE LA RESERVA DE LA FUERZA AEREA INDICAN QUE LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS HAN AUMENTADO HASTA CERCA DE 60 MPH...95 KM/HR...RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. ES POSIBLE QUE OCURRA ALGUN AUMENTO ADICIONAL EN INTENSIDAD DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SE EXTIENDEN HACIA AFUERA HASTA 25 MILLAS...35 KILOMETROS FUERA DEL CENTRO. LA PRESIION MINIMA CENTRAL OBSERVADA POR UN AVION DE RECONOCIMIENTO FUE DE 1007 MILIBARAS...29.62 PULGADAS. SE ESPERA QUE CHRIS PRODUZCA TOTALES DE LLUVIA DE 3 A 5 PULGADAS SOBRE LAS ISLAS MAS NORTE DE LAS ISLAS DE SOTAVENTO...LAS ISLAS VIRGENES AMERICANAS Y PORCIONES ESTE DE PUERTO RICO...CON POSIBLES CANTIDADES AISLADAS MAXIMAS DE 8 PULGADAS HASTA EL MIERCOLES. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 530 PM AST...18.0 NORTE...61.1 OESTE. SE MUEVE AL...OESTE-NOROESTE A CERCA DE 10 MPH. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS...60 MPH. LA PRESION MINIMA CENTRAL...1003 MILIBARAS. UNA ADVERTENCIA INTERMEDIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 730 PM AST SEGUIDA POR UNA ADVERTENCIA MAS DETALLADA A LAS 1030 PM AST. $$ PRONOTICADOR PASCH/KNABB ** WTNT83 KNHC 012142 *** TCVAT3 CHRIS WATCH/WARNING BREAKPOINTS/ADVISORY NUMBER 5 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032006 530 PM AST TUE AUG 1 2006 .TROPICAL STORM CHRIS PRC001-003-005-007-009-011-013-015-017-019-021-023-025-027-029- 031-033-035-037-039-041-043-045-047-049-051-053-054-055-057-059- 061-063-065-067-069-071-073-075-077-079-081-083-085-087-089-091- 093-095-097-099-101-103-105-107-109-111-113-115-117-119-121-123- 125-127-129-131-133-135-137-139-141-143-145-147-149-151-153- VIC010-020-030-020300- /E.CON.KNHC.TR.W.1003.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ 530 PM AST TUE AUG 1 2006 PUERTO-RICO-ALL 18.20N 66.45W VIRGIN-IS.-(U.S.) 18.05N 64.80W $$ ATTN...WFO...SJU... ** WTPQ20 RJTD 012100 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME STS 0606 PRAPIROON (0606) ANALYSIS PSTN 012100UTC 17.5N 115.8E FAIR MOVE W SLOWLY PRES 985HPA MXWD 050KT 30KT 200NM FORECAST 24HF 022100UTC 18.6N 113.0E 80NM 70% MOVE WNW 07KT PRES 975HPA MXWD 060KT 45HF 031800UTC 19.7N 111.0E 150NM 70% MOVE WNW SLOWLY PRES 970HPA MXWD 065KT 69HF 041800UTC 21.1N 109.3E 220NM 70% MOVE NW SLOWLY PRES 975HPA MXWD 060KT = ** WTJP31 RJTD 012100 *** WARNING 012100. WARNING VALID 022100. STORM WARNING. SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 0606 PRAPIROON (0606) 985 HPA AT 17.5N 115.8E SOUTH CHINA SEA MOVING WEST SLOWLY. POSITION FAIR. MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 200 MILES. FORECAST POSITION FOR 022100UTC AT 18.6N 113.0E WITH 80 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 975 HPA, MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTCA43 TJSJ 012159 CCA *** TCPSP3 BOLETIN TORMENTA TROPICAL CHRIS ADVERTENCIA INTERMEDIA NUMERO 5 NWS TCP/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL 530 PM AST MARTES 1 DE AGOSTO DE 2006 ...CHRIS UN POCO MAS FUERTE... CONTINUA EN EFECTO UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL PARA LAS ISLAS DE ANTIGUA...BARBUDA...ANGUILLA...SAN KITTS...NEVIS...SABA... ST.EUSTATIUS ST. BARTHELEMY...ST MARTIN...Y ST. MAARTEN. UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SIGNIFICA QUE SE ESPERAN CONDICIONES DE TORMENTA TROPICAL DENTRO DEL AREA DEL AVISO DENTRO DE LAS PROXIMAS 12 A 24 HORAS. TAMBIEN SE HA EMITIDO UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL PARA PUERTO RICO Y LAS ISLAS VIRGENES AMERICANAS. A LAS 530 PM AST...2130 UTC...EL SERVICIO METEOROLOGICO DE ANTIGUA HA EMITIDO UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL PARA LAS ISLAS VIRGENES BRITANICAS. PARA INFORMACION ESPECIFICA PARA SU AREA...INCLUYENDO POSIBLES VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS PARA AREAS TERRESTRES...FAVOR DE REFERIRSE A LOS PRODUCTOS EMITIDOS POR SU OFICINA METEOROLOGICA LOCAL. A LAS 530 PM AST...2130Z...EL CENTRO DE LA TORMENTA TROPICAL CHRIS ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 18.0 NORTE...LONGITUD 61.1 OESTE O COMO A 75 MILLAS...125 KILOMETROS...AL NORESTE DE ANTIGUA. CHRIS SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL OESTE-NOROESTE A CERCA DE 10 MPH...17 KILOMETROS POR HORA...Y ESTE MOVIMIENTO SE PRONOSTICA QUE CONTINUARA DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. EN LA TRAYECTORIA ACTUAL...CHRIS ESTARA PASANDO CERCA O SOBRE LAS ISLAS MAS NORTE DE LAS ISLAS DE SOTAVENTO ESTA NOCHE Y TEMPRANO EL MIERCOLES. LOS INFORMES MAS RECIENTES DE UN AVION DE RECONOCIMIENTO DE UNA UNIDAD DE LA RESERVA DE LA FUERZA AEREA INDICAN QUE LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS HAN AUMENTADO HASTA CERCA DE 60 MPH...95 KM/HR...RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. ES POSIBLE QUE OCURRA ALGUN AUMENTO ADICIONAL EN INTENSIDAD DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SE EXTIENDEN HACIA AFUERA HASTA 25 MILLAS...35 KILOMETROS FUERA DEL CENTRO. LA PRESIION MINIMA CENTRAL OBSERVADA POR UN AVION DE RECONOCIMIENTO FUE DE 1007 MILIBARAS...29.62 PULGADAS. SE ESPERA QUE CHRIS PRODUZCA TOTALES DE LLUVIA DE 3 A 5 PULGADAS SOBRE LAS ISLAS MAS NORTE DE LAS ISLAS DE SOTAVENTO...LAS ISLAS VIRGENES AMERICANAS Y PORCIONES ESTE DE PUERTO RICO...CON POSIBLES CANTIDADES AISLADAS MAXIMAS DE 8 PULGADAS HASTA EL MIERCOLES. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 530 PM AST...18.0 NORTE...61.1 OESTE. SE MUEVE AL...OESTE-NOROESTE A CERCA DE 10 MPH. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS...60 MPH. LA PRESION MINIMA CENTRAL...1003 MILIBARAS. UNA ADVERTENCIA INTERMEDIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 730 PM AST SEGUIDA POR UNA ADVERTENCIA MAS DETALLADA A LAS 1030 PM AST. $$ PRONOTICADOR PASCH/KNABB ** WTCA82 TJSJ 012212 CCA *** HLSSJU PRZ001>013-VIZ001-002-AMZ710>750-000030- BULLETIN- TROPICAL STORM CHRIS LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR 600 PM AST TUE AUG 1 2006 ...TROPICAL STORM CHRIS STRENGTHENING... ...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO... ...NEW INFORMATION... WATCHES/WARNINGS. STORM INFORMATION. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTION. WIND IMPACTS. MARINE IMPACTS. ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT RECOMMENDS ACTIONS TO BE TAKEN BY RESIDENTS AND VISITORS OF THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO. ...WATCHES/WARNINGS... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN 24 HOURS OR LESS. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 530 PM AST...TROPICAL STORM CHRIS WAS LOCATED AT LATITUDE 18.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 61.1 WEST...OR ABOUT...75 MILES NORTHEAST OF ANTIGUA...OR ABOUT 225 MILES EAST OF ST CROIX OR ABOUT 250 MILES EAST OF ST THOMAS OR ABOUT 335 MILES EAST SOUTHEAST OF SAN JUAN. THE TROPICAL STORM WAS MOVING WEST NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH...WITH THIS GENERAL MOTION EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 60 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... RESIDENTS AND VISITORS OF THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS PUERTO RICO SHOULD CONTINUE TO MAKE PREPARATIONS FOR TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ON WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE MAIN IMPACT FROM CHRIS CONTINUES TO BE THE HEAVY RAIN BANDS AND SQUALLS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE STORM AND THE STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE THAT COULD BE EXPERIENCED. ...WINDS... TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES...FROM THE CENTER OF CHRIS. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE LATER TONIGHT OVER THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS...WITH SUSTAINED WINDS FORECAST TO REACH FROM 20 TO 30 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS BY WEDNESDAY MORNING AS TROPICAL STORM CHRIS APPROACHES THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS. BASED ON THE LATEST TRACK THE STORM CENTER IS FORECAST TO PASS NORTH OF ST JOHN AND ST THOMAS AROUND EARLY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WIND GUSTS SHOULD BE EXPECTED AS THE RAIN BANDS AROUND THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE STORM IMPACT ST THOMAS AND ST JOHN. WINDS WILL CHANGE TO THE SOUTHEAST ONCE THE STORM MOVES WEST NORTHWEST OF THE VIRGIN ISLANDS. WINDS OVER PUERTO RICO ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE TO NEAR 20 TO 25 MPH BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH STRONGER GUSTS ALONG THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE ISLAND AND IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS BASED ON THE LATEST TRACK. CURRENTLY SUSTAINED TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN OFFSHORE...BUT RESIDENTS OF THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO SHOULD MONITOR THIS CLOSELY AS ANY INCREASE IN THE INTENSITY TONIGHT OR A CHANGE TO A MORE WESTWARD TRACK COULD BRING THE STORM CLOSER TO THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO...AND MORE SIGNIFICANT STORM EFFECTS. ...INLAND FLOODING... SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE OUTER WESTERN FRINGES OF TROPICAL STORM CHRIS SHOULD BEGIN LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS...CULEBRA AND VIEQUES AND OVER THE EASTERN SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. HEAVY RAINS ARE LIKELY AS THE CENTER OF THE STORM PASSES TO THE NORTH THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO ON ITS FORECAST TRACK WITH A RISK OF SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL AND FLOODING WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE SURFACE WINDS CHANGE TO THE SOUTHEAST BEHIND THE CENTER OF THE STORM. RAINFALL TOTALS OF AT LEAST THREE TO SIX INCHES ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST INTERIOR SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO AND THE NORTHERN SLOPES OF THE ISLAND. RIVERS ACROSS PUERTO RICO COULD EXPERIENCE RAPID RISES WITH SOME RIVERS EXCEEDING BANKFULL ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ...MARINE IMPACTS... SMALL CRAFT SHOULD PLAN TO REMAIN IN PORT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SEAS WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE LOCAL ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS AND THROUGH THE ANEGADA PASSAGE AND THE ATLANTIC THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND WILL LIKELY REACH 10 TO 13 FEET AS STORM PASSES. HIGH SURF ADVISORIES AND COASTAL FLOOD WATCHES ARE LIKELY TO BE ISSUED LATER THIS EVENING FOR THE NORTHERN U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY 830 PM AST BY YOUR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE IN SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO. $$ MOJICA ** WTCA82 TJSJ 012214 CCA *** HLSSJU PRZ001>013-VIZ001-002-AMZ710>750-020030- BULLETIN- TROPICAL STORM CHRIS LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR 600 PM AST TUE AUG 1 2006 ...TROPICAL STORM CHRIS STRENGTHENING... ...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO... ...NEW INFORMATION... WATCHES/WARNINGS. STORM INFORMATION. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTION. WIND IMPACTS. MARINE IMPACTS. ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT RECOMMENDS ACTIONS TO BE TAKEN BY RESIDENTS AND VISITORS OF THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO. ...WATCHES/WARNINGS... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN 24 HOURS OR LESS. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 530 PM AST...TROPICAL STORM CHRIS WAS LOCATED AT LATITUDE 18.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 61.1 WEST...OR ABOUT...75 MILES NORTHEAST OF ANTIGUA...OR ABOUT 225 MILES EAST OF ST CROIX OR ABOUT 250 MILES EAST OF ST THOMAS OR ABOUT 335 MILES EAST SOUTHEAST OF SAN JUAN. THE TROPICAL STORM WAS MOVING WEST NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH...WITH THIS GENERAL MOTION EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 60 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... RESIDENTS AND VISITORS OF THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS PUERTO RICO SHOULD CONTINUE TO MAKE PREPARATIONS FOR TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ON WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE MAIN IMPACT FROM CHRIS CONTINUES TO BE THE HEAVY RAIN BANDS AND SQUALLS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE STORM AND THE STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE THAT COULD BE EXPERIENCED. ...WINDS... TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES...FROM THE CENTER OF CHRIS. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE LATER TONIGHT OVER THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS...WITH SUSTAINED WINDS FORECAST TO REACH FROM 20 TO 30 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS BY WEDNESDAY MORNING AS TROPICAL STORM CHRIS APPROACHES THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS. BASED ON THE LATEST TRACK THE STORM CENTER IS FORECAST TO PASS NORTH OF ST JOHN AND ST THOMAS AROUND EARLY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WIND GUSTS SHOULD BE EXPECTED AS THE RAIN BANDS AROUND THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE STORM IMPACT ST THOMAS AND ST JOHN. WINDS WILL CHANGE TO THE SOUTHEAST ONCE THE STORM MOVES WEST NORTHWEST OF THE VIRGIN ISLANDS. WINDS OVER PUERTO RICO ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE TO NEAR 20 TO 25 MPH BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH STRONGER GUSTS ALONG THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE ISLAND AND IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS BASED ON THE LATEST TRACK. CURRENTLY SUSTAINED TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN OFFSHORE...BUT RESIDENTS OF THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO SHOULD MONITOR THIS CLOSELY AS ANY INCREASE IN THE INTENSITY TONIGHT OR A CHANGE TO A MORE WESTWARD TRACK COULD BRING THE STORM CLOSER TO THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO...AND MORE SIGNIFICANT STORM EFFECTS. ...INLAND FLOODING... SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE OUTER WESTERN FRINGES OF TROPICAL STORM CHRIS SHOULD BEGIN LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS...CULEBRA AND VIEQUES AND OVER THE EASTERN SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. HEAVY RAINS ARE LIKELY AS THE CENTER OF THE STORM PASSES TO THE NORTH THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO ON ITS FORECAST TRACK WITH A RISK OF SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL AND FLOODING WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE SURFACE WINDS CHANGE TO THE SOUTHEAST BEHIND THE CENTER OF THE STORM. RAINFALL TOTALS OF AT LEAST THREE TO SIX INCHES ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST INTERIOR SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO AND THE NORTHERN SLOPES OF THE ISLAND. RIVERS ACROSS PUERTO RICO COULD EXPERIENCE RAPID RISES WITH SOME RIVERS EXCEEDING BANKFULL ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ...MARINE IMPACTS... SMALL CRAFT SHOULD PLAN TO REMAIN IN PORT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SEAS WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE LOCAL ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS AND THROUGH THE ANEGADA PASSAGE AND THE ATLANTIC THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND WILL LIKELY REACH 10 TO 13 FEET AS STORM PASSES. HIGH SURF ADVISORIES AND COASTAL FLOOD WATCHES ARE LIKELY TO BE ISSUED LATER THIS EVENING FOR THE NORTHERN U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY 830 PM AST BY YOUR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE IN SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO. $$ MOJICA ** WTPQ20 BABJ 012200 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST STS PRAPIROON 0606 (0606) INITIAL TIME 012200 UTC 00HR 17.7N 115.7E 980HPA 28M/S 30KTS 360KM 50KTS 50KM P12HR WNW 10KM/H= ** WTCA82 TJSJ 012231 CCA *** HLSSJU PRZ001>013-VIZ001-002-AMZ710>750-020030- BULLETIN- TROPICAL STORM CHRIS LOCAL STATEMENT...CORRECTED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR 600 PM AST TUE AUG 1 2006 ...CORRECTED WATCHES/WARNINGS... ...TROPICAL STORM CHRIS STRENGTHENING... ...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO... ...NEW INFORMATION... WATCHES/WARNINGS. STORM INFORMATION. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTION. WIND IMPACTS. MARINE IMPACTS. ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT RECOMMENDS ACTIONS TO BE TAKEN BY RESIDENTS AND VISITORS OF THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO. ...WATCHES/WARNINGS... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN 24 HOURS OR LESS. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 530 PM AST...TROPICAL STORM CHRIS WAS LOCATED AT LATITUDE 18.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 61.1 WEST...OR ABOUT...75 MILES NORTHEAST OF ANTIGUA...OR ABOUT 225 MILES EAST OF ST CROIX OR ABOUT 250 MILES EAST OF ST THOMAS OR ABOUT 335 MILES EAST SOUTHEAST OF SAN JUAN. THE TROPICAL STORM WAS MOVING WEST NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH...WITH THIS GENERAL MOTION EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 60 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... RESIDENTS AND VISITORS OF THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS PUERTO RICO SHOULD CONTINUE TO MAKE PREPARATIONS FOR TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ON WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE MAIN IMPACT FROM CHRIS CONTINUES TO BE THE HEAVY RAIN BANDS AND SQUALLS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE STORM AND THE STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE THAT COULD BE EXPERIENCED. ...WINDS... TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES...FROM THE CENTER OF CHRIS. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE LATER TONIGHT OVER THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS...WITH SUSTAINED WINDS FORECAST TO REACH FROM 20 TO 30 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS BY WEDNESDAY MORNING AS TROPICAL STORM CHRIS APPROACHES THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS. BASED ON THE LATEST TRACK THE STORM CENTER IS FORECAST TO PASS NORTH OF ST JOHN AND ST THOMAS AROUND EARLY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WIND GUSTS SHOULD BE EXPECTED AS THE RAIN BANDS AROUND THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE STORM IMPACT ST THOMAS AND ST JOHN. WINDS WILL CHANGE TO THE SOUTHEAST ONCE THE STORM MOVES WEST NORTHWEST OF THE VIRGIN ISLANDS. WINDS OVER PUERTO RICO ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE TO NEAR 20 TO 25 MPH BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH STRONGER GUSTS ALONG THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE ISLAND AND IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS BASED ON THE LATEST TRACK. CURRENTLY SUSTAINED TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN OFFSHORE...BUT RESIDENTS OF THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO SHOULD MONITOR THIS CLOSELY AS ANY INCREASE IN THE INTENSITY TONIGHT OR A CHANGE TO A MORE WESTWARD TRACK COULD BRING THE STORM CLOSER TO THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO...AND MORE SIGNIFICANT STORM EFFECTS. ...INLAND FLOODING... SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE OUTER WESTERN FRINGES OF TROPICAL STORM CHRIS SHOULD BEGIN LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS...CULEBRA AND VIEQUES AND OVER THE EASTERN SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. HEAVY RAINS ARE LIKELY AS THE CENTER OF THE STORM PASSES TO THE NORTH THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO ON ITS FORECAST TRACK WITH A RISK OF SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL AND FLOODING WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE SURFACE WINDS CHANGE TO THE SOUTHEAST BEHIND THE CENTER OF THE STORM. RAINFALL TOTALS OF AT LEAST THREE TO SIX INCHES ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST INTERIOR SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO AND THE NORTHERN SLOPES OF THE ISLAND. RIVERS ACROSS PUERTO RICO COULD EXPERIENCE RAPID RISES WITH SOME RIVERS EXCEEDING BANKFULL ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ...MARINE IMPACTS... SMALL CRAFT SHOULD PLAN TO REMAIN IN PORT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SEAS WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE LOCAL ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS AND THROUGH THE ANEGADA PASSAGE AND THE ATLANTIC THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND WILL LIKELY REACH 10 TO 13 FEET AS STORM PASSES. HIGH SURF ADVISORIES AND COASTAL FLOOD WATCHES ARE LIKELY TO BE ISSUED LATER THIS EVENING FOR THE NORTHERN U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY 830 PM AST BY YOUR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE IN SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO. $$ MOJICA ** WTPN31 PHNC 012200 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// REF/A/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN/PEARL HARBOR HI/012135AUG2006// AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL STORM 07E (FABIO) WARNING NR 005 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 011800Z --- NEAR 14.9N 126.6W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 275 DEGREES AT 13 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 14.9N 126.6W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 020600Z --- 15.2N 129.3W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 060 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 13 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 021800Z --- 15.7N 132.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 060 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 13 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 030600Z --- 16.1N 134.7W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 13 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 031800Z --- 16.2N 137.4W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 12 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 041800Z --- 16.5N 142.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 12 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 051800Z --- 16.5N 147.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 12 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 061800Z --- 16.5N 152.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: 012200Z POSITION NEAR 15.0N 127.5W. AT 011800Z TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED 924 NM WSW OF SOCORRO ISLAND. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 011800Z IS 13 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 020400Z, 021000Z, 021600Z AND 022200Z. REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 08E (GILMA) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PHNC) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.// ** WTPN32 PHNC 012200 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// REF/A/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN/PEARL HARBOR HI/012130AUG2006// AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL STORM 08E (GILMA) WARNING NR 004 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 011800Z --- NEAR 14.2N 105.4W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 310 DEGREES AT 07 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 14.2N 105.4W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 020600Z --- 15.0N 106.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 021800Z --- 15.3N 107.9W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 030600Z --- 15.7N 109.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 08 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 031800Z --- 16.0N 111.2W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 060 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 041800Z --- 17.0N 114.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 08 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 051800Z --- 18.5N 117.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 061800Z --- 21.0N 119.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT --- REMARKS: 012200Z POSITION NEAR 14.5N 105.8W. AT 011800Z TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED 354 NM WSW OF ACAPULCO. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 011800Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 020400Z, 021000Z, 021600Z AND 022200Z. REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 07E (FABIO) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PHNC) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.// ** WTSS20 VHHH 012245 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT 012100 UTC, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM PRAPIROON (0606) WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 980 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES OF ONE SEVEN POINT SEVEN DEGREES NORTH (17.7 N) ONE ONE FIVE POINT SEVEN DEGREES EAST (115.7 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE WEST-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 8 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 50 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 180 NAUTICAL MILES OVER SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE, 120 NAUTICAL MILES ELSEWHERE. RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 40 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 240 NAUTICAL MILES. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 022100 UTC ONE NINE POINT ZERO DEGREES NORTH (19.0 N) ONE ONE TWO POINT NINE DEGREES EAST (112.9 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 60 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 032100 UTC TWO ZERO POINT TWO DEGREES NORTH (20.2 N) ONE ONE ZERO POINT THREE DEGREES EAST (110.3 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 65 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 042100 UTC TWO ONE POINT TWO DEGREES NORTH (21.2 N) ONE ZERO NINE POINT ZERO DEGREES EAST (109.0 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 65 KNOTS. ** WTSS20 VHHH 012245 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT 012100 UTC, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM PRAPIROON (0606) WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 980 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES OF ONE SEVEN POINT SEVEN DEGREES NORTH (17.7 N) ONE ONE FIVE POINT SEVEN DEGREES EAST (115.7 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE WEST-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 8 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 50 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 180 NAUTICAL MILES OVER SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE, 120 NAUTICAL MILES ELSEWHERE. RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 40 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 240 NAUTICAL MILES. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 022100 UTC ONE NINE POINT ZERO DEGREES NORTH (19.0 N) ONE ONE TWO POINT NINE DEGREES EAST (112.9 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 60 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 032100 UTC TWO ZERO POINT TWO DEGREES NORTH (20.2 N) ONE ONE ZERO POINT THREE DEGREES EAST (110.3 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 65 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 042100 UTC TWO ONE POINT TWO DEGREES NORTH (21.2 N) ONE ZERO NINE POINT ZERO DEGREES EAST (109.0 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 65 KNOTS. ** WTPQ20 BABJ 012300 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST STS PRAPIROON 0606 (0606) INITIAL TIME 012300 UTC 00HR 17.8N 115.6E 980HPA 28M/S 30KTS 360KM 50KTS 50KM P12HR NW 15KM/H= ** WTNT33 KNHC 012359 *** TCPAT3 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM CHRIS INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 5A NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032006 800 PM AST TUE AUG 01 2006 ...HEAVY RAINS AND GUSTY WINDS FROM CHRIS SPREADING OVER THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE ISLANDS OF ANTIGUA...BARBUDA...ANGUILLA...ST. KITTS...NEVIS...SABA...ST. EUSTATIUS...ST. BARTHELEMY...ST. MARTIN...AND ST. MAARTEN. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. AND BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 800 PM AST...0000Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CHRIS WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 61.6 WEST OR ABOUT 45 MILES...75 KM...NORTH-NORTHEAST OF BARBUDA. CHRIS IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH...20 KM/HR... AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THIS TRACK THE CENTER OF CHRIS WILL MOVE NEAR OR OVER THE NORTHERNMOST LEEWARD ISLANDS TONIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED ARE NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS STILL INVESTIGATING CHRIS. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES...35 KM FROM THE CENTER. THE MOST RECENT MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY THE AIRCRAFT WAS 1003 MB...29.62 INCHES. CHRIS IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES OVER THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS...THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS...AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 8 INCHES THROUGH WEDNESDAY. REPEATING THE 800 PM AST POSITION...18.3 N...61.6 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 1100 PM AST. $$ FORECASTER KNABB