** WTCA43 TJSJ 011205 *** TCPSP3 BOLETIN TORMENTA TROPICAL CHRIS ADVERTENCIA INTERMEDIA NUMERO 2A NWS TCP/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL 8 AM AST MARTES 1 DE AGOSTO DE 2006 ...CHRIS DIRIGIENDOSE HACIA EL NORTE DE LAS ISLAS DE SOTAVENTO... ESTA EN EFECTO UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL PARA LAS ISLAS DE ANTIGUA...BARBUDA...ANGUILLA...SAN KITTS...NEVIS...SABA...ST.EUSTATIUS ST. BARTHELEMY...ST MARTIN...Y ST. MAARTEN. UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SIGNIFICA QUE CONDICIONES DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SON POSIBLES DENTRO DEL AREA BAJO VIGILANCIA...GENERALMENTE DENTRO DE LAS PROXIMAS 12 A 24 HORAS. UNA VIGILANCIA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL ESTA EN EFECTO PARA PUERTO RICO Y LAS ISLAS VIRGENES AMERICANAS...Y PARA LAS ISLAS VIRGENES BRITANICAS. UNA VIGILANCIA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SIGNIFICA QUE CONDICIONES DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SON POSIBLES DENTRO DEL AREA BAJO VIGILANCIA...GENERALMENTE DENTRO DE LAS PROXIMAS 36 HORAS. PARA INFORMACION ESPECIFICA PARA SU AREA...INCLUYENDO POSIBLES VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS PARA AREAS TERRESTRES...FAVOR DE REFERIRSE A LOS PRODUCTOS EMITIDOS POR SU OFICINA METEOROLOGICA LOCAL. A LAS 8 AM AST...1200Z...EL CENTRO DE LA TORMENTA TROPICAL CHRIS ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 16.8 NORTE...LONGITUD 59.8 OESTE O COMO A 135 MILLAS...215 KILOMETROS...AL ESTE DE ANTIGUA. CHRIS SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL OESTE-NOROESTE A CERCA DE 9 MPH...15 KILOMETROS POR HORA...Y ESTE MOVIMIENTO GENERAL SE PRONOSTICA DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. EN LA TRAYECTORIA ACTUAL...CHRIS SE ESPERA QUE SE MUEVA SOBRE O CERCA DE LAS ISLAS DE SOTAVENTO MAS TARDE ESTA NOCHE O TEMPRANO EL MIERCOLES. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS ESTAN EN CERCA DE 40 MPH...65 KILOMETROS POR HORA...CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. ALGUN FORTALECIMIENTO ES POSIBLE DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. UN AVION DE RECONOCIMIENTO ESTA EN ITINERARIO PARA INVESTIGAR LA TORMENTA TROPICAL ESTA TARDE PARA PROVEER UNA INFORMACION MAS EXACTA DE LA FORTALEZA Y LOCALIZACION DE CHRIS. LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SE EXTIENDEN HACIA AFUERA HASTA 35 MILLAS...55 KILOMETROS FUERA DEL CENTRO. LA PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA ESTIMADA ES DE 1009 MB...29.80 PULGADAS. CANTIDADES DE LLUVIA DE 3 A 5 PULGADAS CON CANTIDADES AISLADAS MAS ALTAS HASTA CERCA DE 8 PULGADAS...SON POSIBLES SOBRE LAS ISLAS DE SOTAVENTO NORTE ASOCIADAS CON CHRIS. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 8:00 AM AST...16.8 NORTE...59.8 OESTE. SE MUEVE AL...OESTE-NOROESTE A CERCA DE 9 MPH. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS...40 MPH. LA PRESION MINIMA CENTRAL...1009 MILIBARAS. LA PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 11 AM AST. $$ ** WTPQ20 BABJ 011200 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST STS PRAPIROON 0606 (0606) INITIAL TIME 011200 UTC 00HR 17.5N 116.7E 985HPA 25M/S 30KTS 300KM 50KTS 50KM P12HR WNW 15KM/H P+24HR 18.2N 113.5E 970HPA 35M/S P+48HR 19.0N 111.5E 970HPA 35M/S P+72HR 20.6N 109.6E 980HPA 30M/S= ** WTJP21 RJTD 011200 *** WARNING 011200. WARNING VALID 021200. WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS. STORM WARNING. TROPICAL STORM 0606 PRAPIROON (0606) 994 HPA AT 17.5N 116.7E SOUTH CHINA SEA MOVING WESTNORTHWEST 10 KNOTS. POSITION FAIR. MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 130 MILES. FORECAST POSITION FOR 021200UTC AT 18.4N 113.1E WITH 80 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 985 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. FORECAST POSITION FOR 031200UTC AT 19.5N 111.2E WITH 150 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 975 HPA, MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. FORECAST POSITION FOR 041200UTC AT 20.9N 109.5E WITH 220 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 975 HPA, MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 011200 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TS 0606 PRAPIROON (0606) ANALYSIS PSTN 011200UTC 17.5N 116.7E FAIR MOVE WNW 10KT PRES 994HPA MXWD 040KT 30KT 130NM FORECAST 24HF 021200UTC 18.4N 113.1E 80NM 70% MOVE W 08KT PRES 985HPA MXWD 050KT 48HF 031200UTC 19.5N 111.2E 150NM 70% MOVE WNW SLOWLY PRES 975HPA MXWD 060KT 72HF 041200UTC 20.9N 109.5E 220NM 70% MOVE NW SLOWLY PRES 975HPA MXWD 060KT = ** WTPQ20 BABJ 011300 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST STS PRAPIROON 0606 (0606) INITIAL TIME 011300 UTC 00HR 17.5N 116.6E 985HPA 25M/S 30KTS 300KM 50KTS 50KM P12HR WNW 15KM/H= ** WTCA82 TJSJ 011401 *** HLSSJU PRZ001>013-VIZ001-002-AMZ710>750-011630- BULLETIN-EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED TROPICAL STORM CHRIS LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR 1000 AM AST TUE AUG 1 2006 ...TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE STRENGTHENED INTO TROPICAL STORM CHRIS... ...TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS AND WATCHES HAVE BEEN ISSUED... ...WATCHES... A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS OR LESS. ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT RECOMMENDS ACTIONS TO BE TAKEN BY RESIDENTS AND VISITORS OF THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... RESIDENTS AND VISITORS OF THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS PUERTO RICO SHOULD BEGIN TO MAKE PREPARATIONS FOR POSSIBLE TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS BEGINNING LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. ...STORM UPDATE... AT 800 AM AST...TROPICAL STORM CHRIS WAS LOCATED AT LATITUDE 16.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 59.8 WEST...OR ABOUT...135 MILES EAST OF ANTIGUA...OR ABOUT 331 MILES EAST SOUTHEAST OF ST CROIX OR ABOUT 355 MILES EAST SOUTHEAST OF ST THOMAS OR ABOUT 421 MILES EAST SOUTHEAST OF SAN JUAN. THE TROPICAL STORM WAS MOVING WEST NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH...WITH THIS GENERAL MOTION EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE TROPICAL STORM THIS AFTERNOON. ...WIND IMPACTS... TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES...FROM THE CENTER OF CHRIS AT THIS TIME. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TONIGHT OVER THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS...WITH SUSTAINED WINDS FORECAST TO REACH AROUND 50 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS BY EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING AS TROPICAL STORM CHRIS APPROACHES THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS. BASED ON THE LATEST TRACK THE STORM CENTER IS FORECAST TO PASS CLOSE TO ST THOMAS AND ST JOHN WITH TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY MORNING. WINDS OVER PUERTO RICO ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE TO NEAR 40 MPH BY WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH STRONGER GUSTS ALONG THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE ISLAND AND IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS BASED ON THE LATEST TRACK. ...MARINE IMPACTS... SURF WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE LOCAL ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS AND THROUGH THE ANEGADA PASSAGE AND THE ATLANTIC THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND WILL LIKELY REACH 8 TO 9 FEET AS TROPICAL STORM CHRIS PASSES. SMALL CRAFT SHOULD PLAN TO RETURN TO SAFE HARBOR LATER THIS EVENING AND PLAN TO REMAIN IN PORT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. ...RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL... SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE WESTERN FRINGES OF TROPICAL STORM CHRIS SHOULD BEGIN LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND OVER EASTERN SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO BY EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. HEAVY RAINS ARE POSSIBLE AS THE CENTER OF THE STORM PASSES JUST NORTHEAST OF THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO ON ITS FORECAST TRACK. RAINFALL TOTALS OF AT LEAST THREE TO SIX INCHES ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST INTERIOR SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO. RIVERS ACROSS PUERTO RICO COULD EXPERIENCE RAPID RISES WITH SOME RIVERS EXCEEDING BANKFULL ON WEDNESDAY. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON TROPICAL STORM CHRIS CAN BE FOUND IN THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER TROPICAL CYCLONE PRODUCTS AND TROPICAL CYCLONE MARINE ADVISORIES. ...OR VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUERTO RICO AND U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS WEBSITE ON THE INTERNET AT (ALL LOWERCASE LETTERS). HTTP://WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/SJU THE NEXT HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY 1130 AM AST BY YOUR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE IN SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO. SNELL/RM ** WTSS20 VHHH 011345 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT 011200 UTC, TROPICAL STORM PRAPIROON (0606) WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 985 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES OF ONE SEVEN POINT FIVE DEGREES NORTH (17.5 N) ONE ONE SIX POINT EIGHT DEGREES EAST (116.8 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE WEST-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 9 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 45 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 90 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 210 NAUTICAL MILES. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 021200 UTC ONE EIGHT POINT THREE DEGREES NORTH (18.3 N) ONE ONE THREE POINT SEVEN DEGREES EAST (113.7 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 55 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 031200 UTC ONE NINE POINT THREE DEGREES NORTH (19.3 N) ONE ONE TWO POINT FOUR DEGREES EAST (112.4 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 60 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 041200 UTC TWO ZERO POINT SIX DEGREES NORTH (20.6 N) ONE ONE ONE POINT FIVE DEGREES EAST (111.5 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 60 KNOTS. ** WTSS20 VHHH 011345 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT 011200 UTC, TROPICAL STORM PRAPIROON (0606) WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 985 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES OF ONE SEVEN POINT FIVE DEGREES NORTH (17.5 N) ONE ONE SIX POINT EIGHT DEGREES EAST (116.8 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE WEST-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 9 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 45 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 90 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 210 NAUTICAL MILES. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 021200 UTC ONE EIGHT POINT THREE DEGREES NORTH (18.3 N) ONE ONE THREE POINT SEVEN DEGREES EAST (113.7 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 55 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 031200 UTC ONE NINE POINT THREE DEGREES NORTH (19.3 N) ONE ONE TWO POINT FOUR DEGREES EAST (112.4 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 60 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 041200 UTC TWO ZERO POINT SIX DEGREES NORTH (20.6 N) ONE ONE ONE POINT FIVE DEGREES EAST (111.5 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 60 KNOTS. ** WTPQ20 BABJ 011400 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST STS PRAPIROON 0606 (0606) INITIAL TIME 011400 UTC 00HR 17.6N 116.6E 985HPA 25M/S 30KTS 300KM 50KTS 50KM P12HR WNW 15KM/H= ** WTCA82 TJSJ 011424 CCA *** HLSSJU PRZ001>013-VIZ001-002-AMZ710>750-011630- BULLETIN- TROPICAL STORM CHRIS LOCAL STATEMENT...CORRECTED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR 1000 AM AST TUE AUG 1 2006 ...CORRECTED TO DELETE EAS ACTIVATION REQUEST IN THE HEADER... ...TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE STRENGTHENED INTO TROPICAL STORM CHRIS... ...TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS AND WATCHES HAVE BEEN ISSUED... ...WATCHES... A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS OR LESS. ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT RECOMMENDS ACTIONS TO BE TAKEN BY RESIDENTS AND VISITORS OF THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... RESIDENTS AND VISITORS OF THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS PUERTO RICO SHOULD BEGIN TO MAKE PREPARATIONS FOR POSSIBLE TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS BEGINNING LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. ...STORM UPDATE... AT 800 AM AST...TROPICAL STORM CHRIS WAS LOCATED AT LATITUDE 16.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 59.8 WEST...OR ABOUT...135 MILES EAST OF ANTIGUA...OR ABOUT 331 MILES EAST SOUTHEAST OF ST CROIX OR ABOUT 355 MILES EAST SOUTHEAST OF ST THOMAS OR ABOUT 421 MILES EAST SOUTHEAST OF SAN JUAN. THE TROPICAL STORM WAS MOVING WEST NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH...WITH THIS GENERAL MOTION EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE TROPICAL STORM THIS AFTERNOON. ...WIND IMPACTS... TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES...FROM THE CENTER OF CHRIS AT THIS TIME. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TONIGHT OVER THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS...WITH SUSTAINED WINDS FORECAST TO REACH AROUND 50 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS BY EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING AS TROPICAL STORM CHRIS APPROACHES THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS. BASED ON THE LATEST TRACK THE STORM CENTER IS FORECAST TO PASS CLOSE TO ST THOMAS AND ST JOHN WITH TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY MORNING. WINDS OVER PUERTO RICO ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE TO NEAR 40 MPH BY WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH STRONGER GUSTS ALONG THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE ISLAND AND IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS BASED ON THE LATEST TRACK. ...MARINE IMPACTS... SURF WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE LOCAL ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS AND THROUGH THE ANEGADA PASSAGE AND THE ATLANTIC THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND WILL LIKELY REACH 8 TO 9 FEET AS TROPICAL STORM CHRIS PASSES. SMALL CRAFT SHOULD PLAN TO RETURN TO SAFE HARBOR LATER THIS EVENING AND PLAN TO REMAIN IN PORT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. ...RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL... SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE WESTERN FRINGES OF TROPICAL STORM CHRIS SHOULD BEGIN LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND OVER EASTERN SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO BY EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. HEAVY RAINS ARE POSSIBLE AS THE CENTER OF THE STORM PASSES JUST NORTHEAST OF THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO ON ITS FORECAST TRACK. RAINFALL TOTALS OF AT LEAST THREE TO SIX INCHES ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST INTERIOR SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO. RIVERS ACROSS PUERTO RICO COULD EXPERIENCE RAPID RISES WITH SOME RIVERS EXCEEDING BANKFULL ON WEDNESDAY. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON TROPICAL STORM CHRIS CAN BE FOUND IN THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER TROPICAL CYCLONE PRODUCTS AND TROPICAL CYCLONE MARINE ADVISORIES. ...OR VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUERTO RICO AND U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS WEBSITE ON THE INTERNET AT (ALL LOWERCASE LETTERS). HTTP://WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/SJU THE NEXT HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY 1130 AM AST BY YOUR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE IN SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO. SNELL/RM ** WTNT23 KNHC 011429 *** TCMAT3 TROPICAL STORM CHRIS FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032006 1500 UTC TUE AUG 01 2006 A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE ISLANDS OF ANTIGUA...BARBUDA...ANGUILLA...ST. KITTS...NEVIS...SABA...ST. EUSTATIUS...ST. BARTHELEMY...ST. MARTIN...AND ST. MAARTEN. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS...AND FOR THE BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.3N 60.3W AT 01/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1009 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 40NE 30SE 0SW 30NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.3N 60.3W AT 01/1500Z AT 01/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.2N 59.8W FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 17.9N 61.9W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 18.8N 64.1W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 19.7N 66.3W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 20.4N 68.4W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 21.7N 72.0W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 05/1200Z 23.0N 75.5W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 06/1200Z 24.0N 78.5W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.3N 60.3W NEXT ADVISORY AT 01/2100Z $$ FORECASTER PASCH ** WTNT33 KNHC 011429 *** TCPAT3 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM CHRIS ADVISORY NUMBER 3 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032006 1100 AM AST TUE AUG 01 2006 ...CHRIS APPROACHING THE NORTHERNMOST LEEWARD ISLANDS...HAS NOT STRENGTHENED... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE ISLANDS OF ANTIGUA...BARBUDA...ANGUILLA...ST. KITTS...NEVIS...SABA...ST. EUSTATIUS...ST. BARTHELEMY...ST. MARTIN...AND ST. MAARTEN. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS...AND FOR THE BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 1100 AM AST...1500Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CHRIS WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 60.3 WEST OR ABOUT 100 MILES...160 KM...EAST OF ANTIGUA. CHRIS IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/HR... AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...CHRIS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NEAR OR OVER THE NORTHERNMOST LEEWARD ISLANDS LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE TROPICAL STORM THIS AFTERNOON TO PROVIDE A MORE ACCURATE ESTIMATE OF THE STRENGTH AND LOCATION OF CHRIS. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES...55 KM FROM THE CENTER. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1009 MB...29.80 INCHES. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS TO NEAR 8 INCHES...ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS IN ASSOCIATION WITH CHRIS. REPEATING THE 1100 AM AST POSITION...17.3 N...60.3 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB. AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 200 PM AST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 500 PM AST. $$ FORECASTER PASCH ** WTNT43 KNHC 011429 *** TCDAT3 TROPICAL STORM CHRIS DISCUSSION NUMBER 3 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032006 1100 AM EDT TUE AUG 01 2006 BASED ON GEOSTATIONARY SATELLITE IMAGERY...THE OVERALL ORGANIZATION OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE HAS CHANGED LITTLE OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. RADAR IMAGERY FROM GUADELOUPE SHOW SOME FAIRLY WELL-DEFINED SPIRAL RAIN BANDS. DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB...SAB...AND AFWA ARE 35 KT...35 KT...AND 25 KT RESPECTIVELY. SINCE THERE IS NO EVIDENCE OF STRENGTHENING...THE ADVISORY INTENSITY REMAINS AT 35 KT. CHRIS IS IN A RATHER ANTICYCLONIC LOWER-TROPOSPHERIC ENVIRONMENT AS EVIDENCED BY HIGH SEA LEVEL PRESSURES OVER THE ISLANDS OF THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. IN FACT...THE 850 MB ENVIRONMENTAL VORTICITY IS A SIGNIFICANT NEGATIVE PREDICTOR IN THE 12Z SHIPS MODEL INTENSITY FORECAST FOR CHRIS. NORTHERLY SHEAR IS CURRENTLY IMPACTING THE SYSTEM AND THIS IS INHIBITING UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW OVER THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT. AS NOTED IN THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...CHRIS COULD BECOME FAVORABLY SITUATED IN A COL REGION BETWEEN TWO UPPER-LEVEL LOWS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THIS MIGHT LEAD TO A LOW-SHEAR ENVIRONMENT THAT WOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR STRENGTHENING. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE CURRENT SHIPS MODEL OUTPUT AND IS ABOVE THE INTENSITY FORECAST CONSENSUS...ICON. IT SHOULD NOTED THAT THE GFS...U.K. MET...NOGAPS...AND ECMWF GLOBAL MODELS ESSENTIALLY DISSIPATE CHRIS WITHIN 5 DAYS. EVEN WITH HIGH-RESOLUTION VISIBLE IMAGES...THE CENTER IS NOT WELL-DEFINED. HOWEVER THE ADVISORY LOCATION IS IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT WITH THE GUADELOUPE RADAR OBSERVATIONS. INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 295/9. CHRIS IS CURRENTLY SITUATED TO THE SOUTH OF A MID-TROPOSPHERIC HIGH PRESSURE AREA. A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE...ASSOCIATED WITH A WELL-DEFINED UPPER-LEVEL LOW...IS NOW IN THE VICINITY OF 70W LONGITUDE. THIS WEAKNESS IS FORECAST TO SHIFT WESTWARD WHILE A RIDGE IS MAINTAINED TO THE NORTH OF CHRIS. THIS STEERING REGIME SHOULD MAINTAIN THE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE...AND A LITTLE TO THE NORTH OF THE DYNAMICAL CONSENSUS. AIR FORCE RECON ARE SCHEDULED TO MAKE AN 1800 UTC FIX ON CHRIS. WE EXPECT THE AIRCRAFT DATA TO PROVIDE US WITH A BETTER HANDLE ON THE LOCATION...STRENGTH...AND STRUCTURE OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE LATER TODAY. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 01/1500Z 17.3N 60.3W 35 KT 12HR VT 02/0000Z 17.9N 61.9W 40 KT 24HR VT 02/1200Z 18.8N 64.1W 45 KT 36HR VT 03/0000Z 19.7N 66.3W 50 KT 48HR VT 03/1200Z 20.4N 68.4W 50 KT 72HR VT 04/1200Z 21.7N 72.0W 50 KT 96HR VT 05/1200Z 23.0N 75.5W 50 KT 120HR VT 06/1200Z 24.0N 78.5W 50 KT $$ FORECASTER PASCH ** WTPZ22 KNHC 011434 *** TCMEP2 TROPICAL STORM FABIO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072006 1500 UTC TUE AUG 01 2006 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.0N 125.7W AT 01/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 11 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT....... 50NE 30SE 30SW 50NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.0N 125.7W AT 01/1500Z AT 01/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.9N 125.1W FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 15.3N 127.6W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 60NE 40SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 15.8N 130.3W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 60NE 40SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 16.2N 133.1W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 60NE 40SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 16.4N 135.8W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 60NE 40SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 16.5N 140.5W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 50NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 05/1200Z 16.5N 145.0W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 06/1200Z 16.5N 150.0W...REMNANT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.0N 125.7W NEXT ADVISORY AT 01/2100Z $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS/PASCH ** WTPZ42 KNHC 011434 *** TCDEP2 TROPICAL STORM FABIO DISCUSSION NUMBER 4 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072006 800 AM PDT TUE AUG 01 2006 CONVECTIVE CURVED BANDING HAS INCREASED IN EXTENT OVER THE WESTERN HALF THIS MORNING...WITH DVORAK SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ALL CHIMING IN AT 45 KT. CONSEQUENTLY...THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL BE BUMPED UP TO 45 KT. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS ONLY SLIGHTLY INCREASED FROM THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE...BUT THE PHILOSOPHY REMAINS THE SAME...WITH A STABLE RELATIVELY DRY AIR MASS AND INCREASED VERTICAL SHEAR BEYOND DAY 3 LIKELY TO DECREASE THE SYSTEM TO A REMNANT LOW BY DAY 5. THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 280/11....WITH A GENERAL WEST TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION WITHIN THE SOUTH PERIPHERY OF A STRONG MID TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE TO THE NORTH. BEYOND DAY 3...THE TROPICAL CYCLONE SHOULD TURN MORE WESTWARD...INFLUENCED BY THE LOW LAYER EASTERLY FLOW OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND IS BASED ON THE MODEL CONSENSUS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 01/1500Z 15.0N 125.7W 45 KT 12HR VT 02/0000Z 15.3N 127.6W 50 KT 24HR VT 02/1200Z 15.8N 130.3W 50 KT 36HR VT 03/0000Z 16.2N 133.1W 50 KT 48HR VT 03/1200Z 16.4N 135.8W 50 KT 72HR VT 04/1200Z 16.5N 140.5W 40 KT 96HR VT 05/1200Z 16.5N 145.0W 30 KT 120HR VT 06/1200Z 16.5N 150.0W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS/PASCH ** WTPZ23 KNHC 011437 *** TCMEP3 TROPICAL STORM GILMA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082006 1500 UTC TUE AUG 01 2006 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.8N 105.5W AT 01/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 0NE 0SE 60SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.8N 105.5W AT 01/1500Z AT 01/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.7N 105.2W FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 14.4N 106.5W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 30SE 60SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 15.1N 107.8W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 60SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 15.5N 109.2W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 50SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 15.7N 110.9W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 65NE 50SE 50SW 65NW. FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 16.6N 114.0W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 40SE 40SW 60NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 05/1200Z 18.0N 117.0W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 06/1200Z 21.0N 119.5W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.8N 105.5W NEXT ADVISORY AT 01/2100Z $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS/PASCH ** WTCA43 TJSJ 011438 *** TCPSP3 BOLETIN TORMENTA TROPICAL CHRIS ADVERTENCIA NUMERO 3 NWS TCP/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL 1100 AM AST MARTES 1 DE AGOSTO DE 2006 ...CHRIS DIRIGIENDOSE HACIA EL NORTE DE LAS ISLAS DE SOTAVENTO... ESTA EN EFECTO UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL PARA LAS ISLAS DE ANTIGUA...BARBUDA...ANGUILLA...SAN KITTS...NEVIS...SABA...ST.EUSTATIUS ST. BARTHELEMY...ST MARTIN...Y ST. MAARTEN. UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SIGNIFICA QUE CONDICIONES DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SON POSIBLES DENTRO DEL AREA BAJO VIGILANCIA...GENERALMENTE DENTRO DE LAS PROXIMAS 12 A 24 HORAS. UNA VIGILANCIA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL ESTA EN EFECTO PARA PUERTO RICO Y LAS ISLAS VIRGENES AMERICANAS...Y PARA LAS ISLAS VIRGENES BRITANICAS. UNA VIGILANCIA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SIGNIFICA QUE CONDICIONES DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SON POSIBLES DENTRO DEL AREA BAJO VIGILANCIA...GENERALMENTE DENTRO DE LAS PROXIMAS 36 HORAS. PARA INFORMACION ESPECIFICA PARA SU AREA...INCLUYENDO POSIBLES VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS PARA AREAS TERRESTRES...FAVOR DE REFERIRSE A LOS PRODUCTOS EMITIDOS POR SU OFICINA METEOROLOGICA LOCAL. A LAS 11 AM AST...1500Z...EL CENTRO DE LA TORMENTA TROPICAL CHRIS ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 17.3 NORTE...LONGITUD 60.3 OESTE O COMO A 100 MILLAS...160 KILOMETROS...AL ESTE DE ANTIGUA. CHRIS SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL OESTE-NOROESTE A CERCA DE 10 MPH...17 KILOMETROS POR HORA...Y ESTE MOVIMIENTO GENERAL SE PRONOSTICA DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. EN LA TRAYECTORIA ACTUAL...CHRIS SE ESPERA QUE SE MUEVA SOBRE O CERCA DE LAS ISLAS DE SOTAVENTO MAS TARDE EN EL DIA DE HOY O ESTA NOCHE. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS ESTAN EN CERCA DE 40 MPH...65 KILOMETROS POR HORA...CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. ALGUN FORTALECIMIENTO ES POSIBLE DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. UN AVION DE RECONOCIMIENTO ESTA EN ITINERARIO PARA INVESTIGAR LA TORMENTA TROPICAL ESTA TARDE PARA PROVEER UNA INFORMACION MAS EXACTA DE LA FORTALEZA Y LOCALIZACION DE CHRIS. LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SE EXTIENDEN HACIA AFUERA HASTA 35 MILLAS...55 KILOMETROS FUERA DEL CENTRO. LA PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA ESTIMADA ES DE 1009 MB...29.80 PULGADAS. CANTIDADES DE LLUVIA DE 3 A 5 PULGADAS CON CANTIDADES AISLADAS MAS ALTAS HASTA CERCA DE 8 PULGADAS...SON POSIBLES SOBRE LAS ISLAS DE SOTAVENTO NORTE ASOCIADAS CON CHRIS. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 11:00 AM AST...17.3 NORTE...60.8 OESTE. SE MUEVE AL...OESTE-NOROESTE A CERCA DE 10 MPH. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS...40 MPH. LA PRESION MINIMA CENTRAL...1009 MILIBARAS. LA PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA INTERMEDIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 200 PM AST. $$ ** WTPN31 PGTW 011500 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL STORM 07W (PRAPIROON) WARNING NR 007 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 011200Z --- NEAR 17.8N 116.5E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 290 DEGREES AT 11 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 17.8N 116.5E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 020000Z --- 18.3N 114.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 021200Z --- 18.7N 113.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 030000Z --- 19.0N 111.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 06 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 031200Z --- 19.4N 110.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 041200Z --- 20.2N 109.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 05 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 051200Z --- 22.0N 107.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 061200Z --- 24.1N 106.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 011500Z POSITION NEAR 17.9N 116.0E. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 07W (PRAPIROON), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 295 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF HONG KONG, HAS TRACKED WEST- NORTHWESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. A 010935Z AMSU-B IMAGE REVEALS THE ENTIRE STORM CIRCULATION IS NOW IN THE SOUTH CHINA SEA AND SIGNIFICANT INTERACTION WITH LUZON IS NO LONGER OCCURRING. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 011200Z IS 13 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 012100Z, 020300Z, 020900Z AND 021500Z.// ** WTPZ43 KNHC 011446 *** TCDEP3 TROPICAL STORM GILMA DISCUSSION NUMBER 3 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082006 800 AM PDT TUE AUG 01 2006 AN EARLIER AMSR-E MICROWAVE OVERPASS AND EARLY VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGEST THAT DEEP CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED NEAR THE CIRCULATION CENTER...WITH IMPROVED BANDING OVER THE SOUTHWEST QUADRANT. DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES SUPPORT AN INITIAL INCREASE TO TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH...35 KT. GILMA SHOULD MOVE INTO AN AREA OF SLIGHTLY RELAXED EASTERLY SHEAR BY 36 HOURS...PROVIDING FOR GRADUAL STRENGTHENING. AFTERWORDS...THE SYSTEM SHOULD MOVE INTO A LESS FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT AND COOLER SSTS AFTER DAY 3. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE LAST FORECAST AND IS A BLEND OF THE SHIPS...GFDL...AND THE FSU SUPERENSEMBLE. THE MAJORITY OF THE GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO SIGNIFICANTLY WEAKEN OR DISSIPATE THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN MODERATE TO STRONG EASTERLY SHEAR IN 72 HOURS OR LESS. A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE SHOULD DEVELOP AS AN UPPER TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DIG SOUTHWARD ALONG THE CALIFORNIA COAST LATER IN THE PERIOD. THE BAMM AND THE FSU SUPERENSEMBLE TURN GILMA TOWARD THE NORTHWESTWARD LATE IN THE PERIOD...WHICH FORMS THE BASIS OF THE OFFICIAL FORECAST. THE GFDL...ON THE OTHER HAND...SHOWS THE SYSTEM DRIFTING WITHIN THE WEAKNESS AFTER 72 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THE FSU SUPERENSEMBLE...THE GFDL...AND THE GFS BETA ADVECTION MEDIUM LAYER MODEL. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 01/1500Z 13.8N 105.5W 35 KT 12HR VT 02/0000Z 14.4N 106.5W 35 KT 24HR VT 02/1200Z 15.1N 107.8W 40 KT 36HR VT 03/0000Z 15.5N 109.2W 45 KT 48HR VT 03/1200Z 15.7N 110.9W 50 KT 72HR VT 04/1200Z 16.6N 114.0W 45 KT 96HR VT 05/1200Z 18.0N 117.0W 45 KT 120HR VT 06/1200Z 21.0N 119.5W 40 KT $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS/PASCH ** WTNT83 KNHC 011455 *** TCVAT3 CHRIS WATCH/WARNING BREAKPOINTS/ADVISORY NUMBER 3 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032006 1100 AM AST TUE AUG 1 2006 .TROPICAL STORM CHRIS PRC001-003-005-007-009-011-013-015-017-019-021-023-025-027-029- 031-033-035-037-039-041-043-045-047-049-051-053-054-055-057-059- 061-063-065-067-069-071-073-075-077-079-081-083-085-087-089-091- 093-095-097-099-101-103-105-107-109-111-113-115-117-119-121-123- 125-127-129-131-133-135-137-139-141-143-145-147-149-151-153- VIC010-020-030-012100- /E.CON.KNHC.TR.A.1003.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ 1100 AM AST TUE AUG 1 2006 PUERTO-RICO-ALL 18.20N 66.45W VIRGIN-IS.-(U.S.) 18.05N 64.80W $$ ATTN...WFO...SJU... ** WTPH RPLL 011200 *** TTT GALE WARNING 17 (FINAL) AT 1200 01 AUGUST TROPICAL STORM (PRAPIROON) (0606) WAS ESTIMATED BASED ON SATELLITE AND SURFACE DATA AT ONE SEVEN POINT FOUR NORTH ONE ONE SIX POINT SEVEN EAST FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHWEST AT ZERO FOUR METERS PER SECOND ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN TWO FIVE ZERO KILOMETER RADIUS FROM CENTER ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE NINE NINE ONE HECTOPASCALS MAXIMUM WINDS TWO THREE METERS PER SECOND NEAR CENTER ONE THREE METERS PER SECOND WITHIN TWO FIVE ZERO KILOMETERS ELSEWHERE FORECAST POSITIONS AT 021200 ONE NINE POINT SIX NORTH ONE ONE THREE POINT FIVE EAST WITH THIS DEVELOPMENT THIS IS THE FINAL WARNIKNG ON THIS WEATHER DISTURBANCE PD= ** WTPQ20 BABJ 011500 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST STS PRAPIROON 0606 (0606) INITIAL TIME 011500 UTC 00HR 17.6N 116.4E 985HPA 25M/S 30KTS 300KM 50KTS 50KM P12HR WNW 15KM/H= ** WTJP31 RJTD 011500 *** WARNING 011500. WARNING VALID 021500. STORM WARNING. TROPICAL STORM 0606 PRAPIROON (0606) 992 HPA AT 17.5N 116.2E SOUTH CHINA SEA MOVING WESTNORTHWEST 08 KNOTS. POSITION FAIR. MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 140 MILES. FORECAST POSITION FOR 021500UTC AT 18.2N 113.0E WITH 80 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 985 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 011500 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TS 0606 PRAPIROON (0606) ANALYSIS PSTN 011500UTC 17.5N 116.2E FAIR MOVE WNW 08KT PRES 992HPA MXWD 040KT 30KT 140NM FORECAST 24HF 021500UTC 18.2N 113.0E 80NM 70% MOVE W 08KT PRES 985HPA MXWD 050KT 45HF 031200UTC 19.5N 111.2E 150NM 70% MOVE WNW SLOWLY PRES 975HPA MXWD 060KT 69HF 041200UTC 20.9N 109.5E 220NM 70% MOVE NW SLOWLY PRES 975HPA MXWD 060KT = ** WTCA82 TJSJ 011549 *** HLSSJU PRZ001>013-VIZ001-002-AMZ710>750-011930- BULLETIN- TROPICAL STORM CHRIS LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR 1130 AM AST TUE AUG 1 2006 ...TROPICAL STORM CHRIS APPROACHING THE NORTHERNMOST LEEWARD ISLANDS...AND HAS NOT STRENGTHENED... ...WATCHES... A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS OR LESS. ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT RECOMMENDS ACTIONS TO BE TAKEN BY RESIDENTS AND VISITORS OF THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... RESIDENTS AND VISITORS OF THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS PUERTO RICO SHOULD CONTINUE TO MAKE PREPARATIONS FOR POSSIBLE TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS BEGINNING LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. ...STORM UPDATE... AT 1100 AM AST...TROPICAL STORM CHRIS WAS LOCATED AT LATITUDE 17.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 60.3 WEST...OR ABOUT...100 MILES EAST OF ANTIGUA...OR ABOUT 285 MILES EAST OF ST CROIX OR ABOUT 320 MILES EAST OF ST THOMAS OR ABOUT 400 MILES EAST SOUTHEAST OF SAN JUAN. THE TROPICAL STORM WAS MOVING WEST NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH...WITH THIS GENERAL MOTION EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 40 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE TROPICAL STORM THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL YIELD A MORE ACCURATE BASIS FOR ISSUING...WARNINGS IF NECESSARY...FOR THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND OR PUERTO RICO. ...WIND IMPACTS... TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES...FROM THE CENTER OF CHRIS. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TONIGHT OVER THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS...WITH SUSTAINED WINDS FORECAST TO REACH AROUND 35 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS BY EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING AS TROPICAL STORM CHRIS APPROACHES THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS. BASED ON THE LATEST TRACK THE STORM CENTER IS FORECAST TO PASS CLOSE TO ST THOMAS AND ST JOHN WITH TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY MORNING. WINDS OVER PUERTO RICO ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE TO NEAR 30 MPH BY WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH STRONGER GUSTS ALONG THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE ISLAND AND IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS BASED ON THE LATEST TRACK. CURRENTLY SUSTAINED TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN OFFSHORE...BUT INTERESTED PARTIES SHOULD MONITOR THIS CLOSELY AS ANY INCREASE IN THE INTENSITY COULD BRING THE STORM CLOSER TO THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO. ...MARINE IMPACTS... SEAS WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE LOCAL ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS AND THROUGH THE ANEGADA PASSAGE AND THE ATLANTIC THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND WILL LIKELY REACH 8 TO 9 FEET AS TROPICAL STORM CHRIS PASSES. SMALL CRAFT SHOULD PLAN TO RETURN TO SAFE HARBOR THIS AFTERNOON AND PLAN TO REMAIN IN PORT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. ...RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL... SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE WESTERN FRINGES OF TROPICAL STORM CHRIS SHOULD BEGIN LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND OVER EASTERN SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. HEAVY RAINS ARE POSSIBLE AS THE CENTER OF THE STORM PASSES JUST NORTHEAST OF THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO ON ITS FORECAST TRACK. RAINFALL TOTALS OF AT LEAST THREE TO SIX INCHES ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST INTERIOR SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO AND THE NORTHERN SLOPES OF THE ISLAND. RIVERS ACROSS PUERTO RICO COULD EXPERIENCE RAPID RISES WITH SOME RIVERS EXCEEDING BANKFULL ON WEDNESDAY. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON TROPICAL STORM CHRIS CAN BE FOUND IN THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER TROPICAL CYCLONE PRODUCTS AND TROPICAL CYCLONE MARINE ADVISORIES. ...OR VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUERTO RICO AND U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS WEBSITE ON THE INTERNET AT (ALL LOWERCASE LETTERS). HTTP://WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/SJU THE NEXT HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY 2:30 PM AST BY YOUR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE IN SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO. SNELL/RM ** WTPH20 RPMM 011200 *** TTT GALE WARNING 17 (FINAL) AT 1200 01 AUGUST TROPICAL STORM (PRAPIROON) {0606) WAS ESTIMATED BASED ON SATELLITE AND SURFACE DATA AT ONE SEVEN POINT FOUR NORTH ONE ONE SIX POINT SEVEN EAST FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHWEST AT ZERO FOUR METERS PER SECOND ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN TWO FIVE ZERO KILOMETER RADIUS FROM CENTER ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE NINE NINE ONE HECTOPASCALS MAXIMUM WINDS TWO THREE METERS PER SECOND NEAR CENTER ONE THREE METERS PER SECOND WITHIN TWO FIVE ZERO KILOMETERS ELSEWHERE FORECAST POSITIONS AT 021200 ONE NINE POINT SIX NORTH ONE ONE THREE POINT FIVE EAST WITH THIS DEVELOPMENT THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS WEATHER DISTURBANCE= ** WTPQ20 BABJ 011600 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST STS PRAPIROON 0606 (0606) INITIAL TIME 011600 UTC 00HR 17.6N 116.3E 985HPA 25M/S 30KTS 300KM 50KTS 50KM P12HR WNW 15KM/H= ** WTPN31 PHNC 011600 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// REF/A/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN/PEARL HARBOR HI/011535AUG2006// AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL STORM 07E (FABIO) WARNING NR 004 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 011200Z --- NEAR 14.9N 125.1W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 280 DEGREES AT 11 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 14.9N 125.1W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 020000Z --- 15.3N 127.6W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 060 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 13 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 021200Z --- 15.8N 130.3W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 060 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 14 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 030000Z --- 16.2N 133.1W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 060 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 13 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 031200Z --- 16.4N 135.8W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 060 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 11 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 041200Z --- 16.5N 140.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 11 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 051200Z --- 16.5N 145.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 12 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 061200Z --- 16.5N 150.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: 011600Z POSITION NEAR 15.0N 125.9W. AT 011200Z TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED 841 NM WSW OF SOCORRO ISLAND. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 011200Z IS 13 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 012200Z, 020400Z, 021000Z AND 021600Z. REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 08E (GILMA) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PHNC) FOR SIX- HOURLY UPDATES.// ** WTPN32 PHNC 011600 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// REF/A/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN/PEARL HARBOR HI/011530AUG2006// AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL STORM 08E (GILMA) WARNING NR 003 UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL DEPRESSION 08E 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 011200Z --- NEAR 13.7N 105.2W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 290 DEGREES AT 08 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 13.7N 105.2W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 020000Z --- 14.4N 106.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 021200Z --- 15.1N 107.8W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 030000Z --- 15.5N 109.2W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 08 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 031200Z --- 15.7N 110.9W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 060 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 041200Z --- 16.6N 114.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 08 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 051200Z --- 18.0N 117.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 061200Z --- 21.0N 119.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT --- REMARKS: 011600Z POSITION NEAR 13.9N 105.6W. AT 011200Z TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED 359 NM WSW OF ACAPULCO. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 011200Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 012200Z, 020400Z, 021000Z AND 021600Z. REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 07E (FABIO) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PHNC) FOR SIX- HOURLY UPDATES.// ** WTCA82 TJSJ 011649 CCA *** HLSSJU PRZ001>013-VIZ001-002-AMZ710>750-011930- BULLETIN- TROPICAL STORM CHRIS LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR 1130 AM AST TUE AUG 1 2006 ...TROPICAL STORM CHRIS APPROACHING THE NORTHERNMOST LEEWARD ISLANDS...AND HAS NOT STRENGTHENED... ...WATCHES... A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS OR LESS. ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT RECOMMENDS ACTIONS TO BE TAKEN BY RESIDENTS AND VISITORS OF THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... RESIDENTS AND VISITORS OF THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS PUERTO RICO SHOULD CONTINUE TO MAKE PREPARATIONS FOR POSSIBLE TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS BEGINNING LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. ...STORM UPDATE... AT 1100 AM AST...TROPICAL STORM CHRIS WAS LOCATED AT LATITUDE 17.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 60.3 WEST...OR ABOUT...100 MILES EAST OF ANTIGUA...OR ABOUT 285 MILES EAST OF ST CROIX OR ABOUT 320 MILES EAST OF ST THOMAS OR ABOUT 400 MILES EAST SOUTHEAST OF SAN JUAN. THE TROPICAL STORM WAS MOVING WEST NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH...WITH THIS GENERAL MOTION EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 40 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE TROPICAL STORM THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL YIELD A MORE ACCURATE BASIS FOR ISSUING...WARNINGS IF NECESSARY...FOR THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND OR PUERTO RICO. ...WIND IMPACTS... TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES...FROM THE CENTER OF CHRIS. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TONIGHT OVER THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS...WITH SUSTAINED WINDS FORECAST TO REACH AROUND 35 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS BY EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING AS TROPICAL STORM CHRIS APPROACHES THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS. BASED ON THE LATEST TRACK THE STORM CENTER IS FORECAST TO PASS CLOSE TO ST THOMAS AND ST JOHN WITH TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY MORNING. WINDS OVER PUERTO RICO ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE TO NEAR 30 MPH BY WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH STRONGER GUSTS ALONG THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE ISLAND AND IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS BASED ON THE LATEST TRACK. CURRENTLY SUSTAINED TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN OFFSHORE...BUT INTERESTED PARTIES SHOULD MONITOR THIS CLOSELY AS ANY INCREASE IN THE INTENSITY COULD BRING THE STORM CLOSER TO THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO. ...MARINE IMPACTS... SEAS WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE LOCAL ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS AND THROUGH THE ANEGADA PASSAGE AND THE ATLANTIC THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND WILL LIKELY REACH 8 TO 9 FEET AS TROPICAL STORM CHRIS PASSES. SMALL CRAFT SHOULD PLAN TO RETURN TO SAFE HARBOR THIS AFTERNOON AND PLAN TO REMAIN IN PORT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. ...RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL... SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE WESTERN FRINGES OF TROPICAL STORM CHRIS SHOULD BEGIN LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND OVER EASTERN SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. HEAVY RAINS ARE POSSIBLE AS THE CENTER OF THE STORM PASSES JUST NORTHEAST OF THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO ON ITS FORECAST TRACK. RAINFALL TOTALS OF AT LEAST THREE TO SIX INCHES ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST INTERIOR SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO AND THE NORTHERN SLOPES OF THE ISLAND. RIVERS ACROSS PUERTO RICO COULD EXPERIENCE RAPID RISES WITH SOME RIVERS EXCEEDING BANKFULL ON WEDNESDAY. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON TROPICAL STORM CHRIS CAN BE FOUND IN THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER TROPICAL CYCLONE PRODUCTS AND TROPICAL CYCLONE MARINE ADVISORIES. ...OR VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUERTO RICO AND U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS WEBSITE ON THE INTERNET AT (ALL LOWERCASE LETTERS). HTTP://WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/SJU THE NEXT HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY 2:30 PM AST BY YOUR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE IN SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO. SNELL/RM ** WTCA82 TJSJ 011654 CCA *** HLSSJU PRZ001>013-VIZ001-002-AMZ710>750-011930- BULLETIN- TROPICAL STORM CHRIS LOCAL STATEMENT...CORRECTED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR 1130 AM AST TUE AUG 1 2006 ...TROPICAL STORM CHRIS APPROACHING THE NORTHERNMOST LEEWARD ISLANDS...AND HAS NOT STRENGTHENED... ...A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO... ...NEW INFORMATION... UPDATED STORM LOCATION. ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT RECOMMENDS ACTIONS TO BE TAKEN BY RESIDENTS AND VISITORS OF THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO. ...WATCHES/WARNINGS... A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 1100 AM AST...TROPICAL STORM CHRIS WAS LOCATED AT LATITUDE 17.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 60.3 WEST...OR ABOUT...100 MILES EAST OF ANTIGUA...OR ABOUT 285 MILES EAST OF ST CROIX OR ABOUT 320 MILES EAST OF ST THOMAS OR ABOUT 400 MILES EAST SOUTHEAST OF SAN JUAN. THE TROPICAL STORM WAS MOVING WEST NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH...WITH THIS GENERAL MOTION EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 40 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE TROPICAL STORM THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL YIELD A MORE ACCURATE BASIS FOR ISSUING...WARNINGS IF NECESSARY...FOR THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND OR PUERTO RICO. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... RESIDENTS AND VISITORS OF THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS PUERTO RICO SHOULD CONTINUE TO MAKE PREPARATIONS FOR POSSIBLE TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS BEGINNING LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. ...WINDS... TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES...FROM THE CENTER OF CHRIS. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TONIGHT OVER THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS...WITH SUSTAINED WINDS FORECAST TO REACH AROUND 35 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS BY EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING AS TROPICAL STORM CHRIS APPROACHES THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS. BASED ON THE LATEST TRACK THE STORM CENTER IS FORECAST TO PASS CLOSE TO ST THOMAS AND ST JOHN WITH TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY MORNING. WINDS OVER PUERTO RICO ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE TO NEAR 30 MPH BY WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH STRONGER GUSTS ALONG THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE ISLAND AND IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS BASED ON THE LATEST TRACK. CURRENTLY SUSTAINED TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN OFFSHORE...BUT INTERESTED PARTIES SHOULD MONITOR THIS CLOSELY AS ANY INCREASE IN THE INTENSITY COULD BRING THE STORM CLOSER TO THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO. ...INLAND FLOODING... SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE WESTERN FRINGES OF TROPICAL STORM CHRIS SHOULD BEGIN LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND OVER EASTERN SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. HEAVY RAINS ARE POSSIBLE AS THE CENTER OF THE STORM PASSES JUST NORTHEAST OF THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO ON ITS FORECAST TRACK. RAINFALL TOTALS OF AT LEAST THREE TO SIX INCHES ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST INTERIOR SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO AND THE NORTHERN SLOPES OF THE ISLAND. RIVERS ACROSS PUERTO RICO COULD EXPERIENCE RAPID RISES WITH SOME RIVERS EXCEEDING BANKFULL ON WEDNESDAY. ...MARINE IMPACTS... SEAS WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE LOCAL ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS AND THROUGH THE ANEGADA PASSAGE AND THE ATLANTIC THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND WILL LIKELY REACH 8 TO 9 FEET AS TROPICAL STORM CHRIS PASSES. SMALL CRAFT SHOULD PLAN TO RETURN TO SAFE HARBOR THIS AFTERNOON AND PLAN TO REMAIN IN PORT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY 2:30 PM AST BY YOUR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE IN SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO. $$ RM ** WTSS20 VHHH 011645 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT 011500 UTC, TROPICAL STORM PRAPIROON (0606) WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 985 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES OF ONE SEVEN POINT SIX DEGREES NORTH (17.6 N) ONE ONE SIX POINT THREE DEGREES EAST (116.3 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE WEST-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 8 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 45 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 150 NAUTICAL MILES OVER SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE, 120 NAUTICAL MILES ELSEWHERE. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 240 NAUTICAL MILES. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 021500 UTC ONE EIGHT POINT FOUR DEGREES NORTH (18.4 N) ONE ONE THREE POINT FIVE DEGREES EAST (113.5 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 55 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 031500 UTC ONE NINE POINT FIVE DEGREES NORTH (19.5 N) ONE ONE TWO POINT TWO DEGREES EAST (112.2 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 60 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 041500 UTC TWO ZERO POINT FOUR DEGREES NORTH (20.4 N) ONE ONE ONE POINT FIVE DEGREES EAST (111.5 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 60 KNOTS. ** WTSS20 VHHH 011645 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT 011500 UTC, TROPICAL STORM PRAPIROON (0606) WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 985 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES OF ONE SEVEN POINT SIX DEGREES NORTH (17.6 N) ONE ONE SIX POINT THREE DEGREES EAST (116.3 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE WEST-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 8 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 45 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 150 NAUTICAL MILES OVER SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE, 120 NAUTICAL MILES ELSEWHERE. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 240 NAUTICAL MILES. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 021500 UTC ONE EIGHT POINT FOUR DEGREES NORTH (18.4 N) ONE ONE THREE POINT FIVE DEGREES EAST (113.5 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 55 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 031500 UTC ONE NINE POINT FIVE DEGREES NORTH (19.5 N) ONE ONE TWO POINT TWO DEGREES EAST (112.2 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 60 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 041500 UTC TWO ZERO POINT FOUR DEGREES NORTH (20.4 N) ONE ONE ONE POINT FIVE DEGREES EAST (111.5 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 60 KNOTS. ** WTPQ20 BABJ 011700 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST STS PRAPIROON 0606 (0606) INITIAL TIME 011700 UTC 00HR 17.6N 116.2E 985HPA 25M/S 30KTS 300KM 50KTS 50KM P12HR WNW 15KM/H= ** WTNT80 EGRR 011732 *** MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 01.08.2006 TROPICAL STORM CHRIS ANALYSED POSITION : 17.3N 59.9W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL032006 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 01.08.2006 17.3N 59.9W WEAK 00UTC 02.08.2006 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH TROPICAL STORM FABIO ANALYSED POSITION : 14.9N 125.0W ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP072006 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 01.08.2006 14.9N 125.0W WEAK 00UTC 02.08.2006 15.6N 127.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 02.08.2006 16.4N 130.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 03.08.2006 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH TROPICAL STORM GILMA ANALYSED POSITION : 12.9N 105.5W ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP082006 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 01.08.2006 12.9N 105.5W WEAK 00UTC 02.08.2006 14.3N 106.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 02.08.2006 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 72 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 72 : 12.2N 20.1W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 04.08.2006 12.2N 20.1W WEAK 00UTC 05.08.2006 12.7N 22.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 05.08.2006 13.2N 23.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 06.08.2006 13.2N 26.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 06.08.2006 13.8N 30.1W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 07.08.2006 13.8N 32.9W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 011732 ** WTNT33 KNHC 011757 *** TCPAT3 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM CHRIS INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 3A NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032006 200 PM AST TUE AUG 01 2006 ...CHRIS NEARING THE NORTHERNMOST LEEWARD ISLANDS... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE ISLANDS OF ANTIGUA...BARBUDA...ANGUILLA...ST. KITTS...NEVIS...SABA...ST. EUSTATIUS...ST. BARTHELEMY...ST. MARTIN...AND ST. MAARTEN. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS...AND FOR THE BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 200 PM AST...1800Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CHRIS WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 60.9 WEST OR ABOUT 65 MILES...110 KM...EAST-NORTHEAST OF ANTIGUA. CHRIS IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/HR... AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...CHRIS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NEAR OR OVER THE NORTHERNMOST LEEWARD ISLANDS LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS APPROACHING CHRIS AND WILL PROVIDE A MORE ACCURATE ESTIMATE OF THE STRENGTH AND LOCATION OF THE SYSTEM. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES...55 KM FROM THE CENTER. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1009 MB...29.80 INCHES. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS TO NEAR 8 INCHES...ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS IN ASSOCIATION WITH CHRIS. REPEATING THE 200 PM AST POSITION...17.6 N...60.9 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 500 PM AST. $$ FORECASTER PASCH