** WTCA43 TJSJ 010619 *** TCPSP3 BOLETIN DEPRESION TROPICAL TRES ADVERTENCIA INTERMEDIA NUMERO 1A NWS TCP/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL 2 AM AST MARTES 1 DE AGOSTO DE 2006 ...DEPRESION TROPICAL TORNANDOSE MEJOR ORGANIZADA AL ESTE DE LAS ISLAS DE SOTAVENTO... UNA VIGILANCIA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL ESTA EN EFECTO PARA LAS ISLAS DE SABA...SAN EUSTATIUS...SAN MAARTEN/SAN MARTIN...Y SAN BARTHELEMY. UNA VIGILANCIA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SIGNIFICA QUE ES POSIBLE QUE OCURRAN CONDICIONES DE TORMENTA TROPICAL EN ESTE CASO DENTRO DE LAS PROXIMAS 12 A 24 HORAS. UNA VIGILANCIA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL PUEDE SER REQUERIDA PARA LAS ISLAS VIRGENES Y PUERTO RICO TARDE ESTA MANANA. UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL CON POCO TIEMPO DE ANTICIPACION PODRIAN REQUERIRSE PARA ANTIGUA...BARBUDA...ANGUILLA...SAN KITTS...NEVIS...Y LAS ISLAS VIRGENES BRITANICAS TARDE ESTA MANANA. PARA INFORMACION ESPECIFICA PARA SU AREA...INCLUYENDO POSIBLES VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS PARA AREAS TERRESTRES...FAVOR DE REFERIRSE A LOS PRODUCTOS EMITIDOS POR SU OFICINA METEOROLOGICA LOCAL. A LAS 2 AM AST...0600Z...EL CENTRO DE LA TORMENTA TROPICAL TRES ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 16.5 NORTE...LONGITUD 58.8 OESTE O COMO A 200 MILLAS...325 KILOMETROS...ESTE-SURESTE DE ANTIGUA. LA DEPRESION SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL OESTE-NORESTE A CERCA DE 9 MPH...Y ESTE MOVIMIENTO GENERAL SE PRONOSTICA DURRANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. EN LA TRAYECTORIA ACTUAL...LA DEPRESION SE ESPERA QUE SE MUEVA SOBRE OCERCA DE LAS ISLAS DE SOTAVENTO MAS TARDE ESTA NOCHE O TEMPRANO EL MIERCOLES. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS ESTAN EN CERCA DE 35 MPH...55 KM/HR...CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. ALGUN FORTALECIMIENTO ES POSIBLE DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS Y LA DEPRESION SE PUEDE CONVERTIR EN TORMENTA TROPICAL MAS TARDE HOY. LA PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA ESTIMADA ES DE 1011 MB...29.85 PULGADAS. CANTIDADES DE LLUVIA DE 2 A 4 PULGADAS CON CANTIDADES AISLADAS MAS ALTAS HASTA CERCA DE 6 PULGADAS...SON POSIBLES SOBRE LAS ISLAS DE SOTAVENTO NORTE ASOCIADAS CON LA DEPRESION. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 200 AM AST...16.5 NORTE...58.8 OESTE. SE MUEVE AL...OESTE-NOROESTE A CERCA DE 9 MPH. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS...35 MPH. LA PRESION MINIMA CENTRAL...1011 MILIBARAS. LA PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 5 AM AST. $$ ** WTIN20 DEMS 010628 *** TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK ------------------------ DEMS -RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONES NEW DELHI 01-08-2006(.) TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NORTH INDIAN OCEAN (THE BAY OF BENGAL AND THE ARABIAN SEA ) VALID FOR NEXT 24 HOURS ISSUED AT 0600 UTC (.) CONVECTIVE CLOUDS ARE SEEN OVER PARTS OF NORTH AND ADJOINING CENTRAL BAY OF BENGAL, NORTH EAST ARABIAN SEA AND ANDAMAN SEA (.) RIDGE LINE AT 200 HPA RUNS ALONG 32 DEG. NORTH OVER THE INDIAN REGION (.) ** WTPQ20 BABJ 010600 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TS NAMELESS 0606 INITIAL TIME 010600 UTC 00HR 17.0N 117.8E 998HPA 18M/S P12HR W 15KM/H P+24HR 17.6N 114.3E 985HPA 28M/S P+48HR 18.6N 112.6E 970HPA 35M/S P+72HR 20.0N 111.2E 970HPA 35M/S= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 010600 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TS 0606 PRAPIROON (0606) UPGRADED FROM TD ANALYSIS PSTN 010600UTC 17.0N 117.7E FAIR MOVE WNW 07KT PRES 998HPA MXWD 035KT 30KT 110NM FORECAST 24HF 020600UTC 17.9N 114.7E 80NM 70% MOVE W 07KT PRES 990HPA MXWD 045KT 48HF 030600UTC 18.8N 112.6E 150NM 70% MOVE WNW SLOWLY PRES 980HPA MXWD 055KT 72HF 040600UTC 20.0N 110.9E 220NM 70% MOVE WNW SLOWLY PRES 975HPA MXWD 060KT = ** WTJP21 RJTD 010600 *** WARNING 010600. WARNING VALID 020600. WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS. GALE WARNING. TROPICAL STORM 0606 PRAPIROON (0606) UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL DEPRESSION 998 HPA AT 17.0N 117.7E SOUTH CHINA SEA MOVING WESTNORTHWEST 07 KNOTS. POSITION FAIR. MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 110 MILES. FORECAST POSITION FOR 020600UTC AT 17.9N 114.7E WITH 80 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 990 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. FORECAST POSITION FOR 030600UTC AT 18.8N 112.6E WITH 150 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 980 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. FORECAST POSITION FOR 040600UTC AT 20.0N 110.9E WITH 220 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 975 HPA, MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTKO20 RKSL 010600 *** KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 1 NAME TS 0606 PRAPIROON ANALYSIS POSITION 010600UTC 17.0N 117.7E MOVEMENT WNW 7KT PRES/VMAX 998HPA 35KT FORECAST 24HR POSITION 020600UTC 17.8N 114.8E WITHIN 80NM PRES/VMAX 990HPA 45KT 48HR POSITION 030600UTC 18.9N 112.9E WITHIN 135NM PRES/VMAX 980HPA 52KT 72HR POSITION 040600UTC 20.2N 111.2E WITHIN 215NM PRES/VMAX 975HPA 56KT KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION. ** WTPQ30 RJTD 010600 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING REASONING NO. 2 FOR TS 0606 PRAPIROON (0606) 1.GENERAL COMMENTS REASONING OF PROGNOSIS THIS TIME IS SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS ONE. POSITION FORECAST IS MAINLY BASED ON NWP AND PERSISTENCY. 2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION NOTHING PARTICULAR TO EXPLAIN. 3.MOTION FORECAST POSITION ACCURACY AT 010600 UTC IS FAIR. TS WILL MOVE AT THE SAME SPEED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS THEN DECELERATE. TS WILL MOVE WEST-NORTHWEST FOR THE NEXT 72 HOURS. 4.INTENSITY FORECAST TS WILL KEEP PRESENT INTENSITY FOR NEXT 24 HOURS. FI-NUMBER WILL BE 3.0 AFTER 24 HOURS.= ** WTPQ20 BABJ 080106 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TS PRAPIROON 0606 (0606) INITIAL TIME 080106 UTC 00HR 17.0N 117.8E 998HPA 18M/S 30KTS 150KM P12HR W 15KM/H P+24HR 17.6N 114.3E 985HPA 28M/S P+48HR 18.6N 112.6E 970HPA 35M/S P+72HR 20.0N 111.2E 970HPA 35M/S= ** WTPQ20 BABJ 010600 CCA *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TS PRAPIROON 0606 (0606) INITIAL TIME 010600 UTC 00HR 17.0N 117.8E 998HPA 18M/S 30KTS 150KM P12HR W 15KM/H P+24HR 17.6N 114.3E 985HPA 28M/S P+48HR 18.6N 112.6E 970HPA 35M/S P+72HR 20.0N 111.2E 970HPA 35M/S= ** WTSS20 VHHH 010745 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING TROPICAL STORM OVER THE SOUTH CHINA SEA (0606) WAS NAMED AS PRAPIROON. AT 010600 UTC, IT WAS CENTRED WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES OF ONE SEVEN POINT ONE DEGREES NORTH (17.1 N) ONE ONE SEVEN POINT SEVEN DEGREES EAST (117.7 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE WEST-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 9 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 35 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 90 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 180 NAUTICAL MILES. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 020600 UTC ONE EIGHT POINT ONE DEGREES NORTH (18.1 N) ONE ONE FOUR POINT TWO DEGREES EAST (114.2 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 50 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 030600 UTC ONE EIGHT POINT EIGHT DEGREES NORTH (18.8 N) ONE ONE TWO POINT TWO DEGREES EAST (112.2 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 55 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 040600 UTC TWO ZERO POINT ZERO DEGREES NORTH (20.0 N) ONE ONE ONE POINT TWO DEGREES EAST (111.2 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 55 KNOTS. ** WTSS20 VHHH 010745 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING TROPICAL STORM OVER THE SOUTH CHINA SEA (0606) WAS NAMED AS PRAPIROON. AT 010600 UTC, IT WAS CENTRED WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES OF ONE SEVEN POINT ONE DEGREES NORTH (17.1 N) ONE ONE SEVEN POINT SEVEN DEGREES EAST (117.7 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE WEST-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 9 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 35 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 90 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 180 NAUTICAL MILES. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 020600 UTC ONE EIGHT POINT ONE DEGREES NORTH (18.1 N) ONE ONE FOUR POINT TWO DEGREES EAST (114.2 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 50 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 030600 UTC ONE EIGHT POINT EIGHT DEGREES NORTH (18.8 N) ONE ONE TWO POINT TWO DEGREES EAST (112.2 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 55 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 040600 UTC TWO ZERO POINT ZERO DEGREES NORTH (20.0 N) ONE ONE ONE POINT TWO DEGREES EAST (111.2 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 55 KNOTS. ** WTPQ20 BABJ 010730 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TS PRAPIROON 0606 (0606) INITIAL TIME 080106 UTC 00HR 17.0N 117.8E 998HPA 18M/S 30KTS 150KM P12HR W 15KM/H P+24HR 17.6N 114.3E 985HPA 28M/S P+48HR 18.6N 112.6E 970HPA 35M/S P+72HR 20.0N 111.2E 970HPA 35M/S= ** WTNT33 KNHC 010840 *** TCPAT3 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM CHRIS ADVISORY NUMBER 2 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032006 500 AM AST TUE AUG 01 2006 ...TROPICAL DEPRESSION STRENGTHENS INTO TROPICAL STORM CHRIS... ...NEW TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS AND WATCHES ISSUED... AT 5 AM AST...0900 UTC...THE RESPECTIVE GOVERNMENTS HAVE ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE ISLANDS OF ANTIGUA...BARBUDA... ANGUILLA...ST. KITTS... NEVIS...SABA...ST. EUSTATIUS... ST. BARTHELEMY...ST. MARTIN...AND ST. MAARTEN. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AT 5 AM AST...A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS...AND FOR THE BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 500 AM AST...0900Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CHRIS WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 59.2 WEST OR ABOUT 175 MILES...280 KM...EAST OF ANTIGUA. CHRIS IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/HR... AND THIS GENERAL HEADING IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...CHRIS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER OR NEAR THE NORTHERNMOST LEEWARD ISLANDS LATER TONIGHT OR EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE TROPICAL STORM THIS AFTERNOON TO PROVIDE A MORE ACCURATE ESTIMATE OF THE STRENGTH AND LOCATION OF CHRIS. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES...55 KM FROM THE CENTER. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1009 MB...29.80 INCHES. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS TO NEAR 8 INCHES...ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS IN ASSOCIATION WITH CHRIS. REPEATING THE 500 AM AST POSITION...16.6 N...59.2 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB. AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 800 AM AST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1100 AM AST. $$ FORECASTER STEWART ** WTNT23 KNHC 010842 *** TCMAT3 TROPICAL STORM CHRIS FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032006 0900 UTC TUE AUG 01 2006 AT 5 AM AST...0900 UTC...THE RESPECTIVE GOVERNMENTS HAVE ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE ISLANDS OF ANTIGUA...BARBUDA... ANGUILLA...ST. KITTS...NEVIS...SABA...ST. EUSTATIUS... ST. BARTHELEMY...ST. MARTIN...AND ST. MAARTEN. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AT 5 AM AST...A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS...AND FOR THE BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.6N 59.2W AT 01/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1009 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 40NE 30SE 0SW 30NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.6N 59.2W AT 01/0900Z AT 01/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.5N 58.8W FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 17.3N 61.0W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 18.2N 63.2W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 19.0N 65.3W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 15NW. 34 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 19.9N 67.5W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 21.3N 71.2W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 05/0600Z 22.5N 74.5W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 06/0600Z 24.0N 77.5W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.6N 59.2W NEXT ADVISORY AT 01/1500Z $$ FORECASTER STEWART ** WTPZ22 KNHC 010846 *** TCMEP2 TROPICAL STORM FABIO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072006 0900 UTC TUE AUG 01 2006 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.8N 124.6W AT 01/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 12 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 45NE 25SE 25SW 45NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.8N 124.6W AT 01/0900Z AT 01/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.7N 124.0W FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 15.2N 126.4W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 15.7N 129.0W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 35SE 35SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 16.2N 131.7W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 35SE 35SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 16.5N 134.0W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 35SE 35SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 16.5N 138.0W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 25SE 25SW 40NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 05/0600Z 16.5N 143.0W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 06/0600Z 16.5N 148.0W...REMNANT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.8N 124.6W NEXT ADVISORY AT 01/1500Z $$ FORECASTER BROWN/STEWART ** WTPZ23 KNHC 010846 *** TCMEP3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082006 0900 UTC TUE AUG 01 2006 TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.6N 104.6W AT 01/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 7 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1009 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.6N 104.6W AT 01/0900Z AT 01/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.4N 104.3W FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 14.3N 105.6W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 30SE 60SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 15.0N 106.8W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 60SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 15.5N 108.3W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 50SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 15.9N 109.8W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 65NE 45SE 45SW 65NW. FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 16.8N 113.2W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 65NE 45SE 45SW 65NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 05/0600Z 18.0N 117.0W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 06/0600Z 21.0N 119.5W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.6N 104.6W NEXT ADVISORY AT 01/1500Z $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN/STEWART ** WTPZ42 KNHC 010848 *** TCDEP2 TROPICAL STORM FABIO DISCUSSION NUMBER 3 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072006 200 AM PDT TUE AUG 01 2006 FABIO HAS CHANGED LITTLE IN ORGANIZATION DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS AND SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES REMAIN 45 KT FROM TAFB AND 35 KT FROM SAB AND AFWA. THEREFORE...THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL REMAIN 35 KT. FOR THE FIRST 24 TO 48 HOURS...FABIO IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN WITHIN AN ENVIRONMENT THAT IS ONLY MARGINALLY FAVORABLE FOR FURTHER STRENGTHENING. AFTER 48 HOURS...THE SHIPS MODEL INDICATES THAT THE CYCLONE WILL BE ENTERING A DRIER MID LEVEL ENVIRONMENT WITH INCREASING VERTICAL SHEAR. MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST THAT FABIO COULD WEAKEN OR EVEN DISSIPATE SOONER THAN INDICATED IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST. THE INTENSITY FORECAST FOLLOWS THE SHIPS MODEL CLOSELY THROUGH 48 HOURS...BUT INDICATES A FASTER RATE OF WEAKENING LATER IN THE FORECAST... SHOWING SOME RESPECT FOR THE DYNAMICAL MODELS. THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 285/12. FABIO IS FORECAST TO REMAIN ON A STEADY WEST TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD HEADING SOUTH OF A STRONG MID TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE. AS THE CYCLONE GRADUALLY WEAKENS LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD...IT WILL LIKELY BE STEERED MORE WESTWARD AS INDICATED BY THE GFDL AND NOGAPS MODELS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK FOLLOWS THIS SCENARIO AND IS CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 01/0900Z 14.8N 124.6W 35 KT 12HR VT 01/1800Z 15.2N 126.4W 40 KT 24HR VT 02/0600Z 15.7N 129.0W 45 KT 36HR VT 02/1800Z 16.2N 131.7W 45 KT 48HR VT 03/0600Z 16.5N 134.0W 45 KT 72HR VT 04/0600Z 16.5N 138.0W 35 KT 96HR VT 05/0600Z 16.5N 143.0W 30 KT 120HR VT 06/0600Z 16.5N 148.0W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW $$ FORECASTER BROWN/STEWART ** WTPZ43 KNHC 010849 *** TCDEP3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 2 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082006 200 AM PDT TUE AUG 01 2006 SHORTWAVE INFRARED IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT THE DEPRESSION CONTINUES TO BE SHEARED...WITH THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER LOCATED JUST EAST OF THE DEEP CONVECTION. THE INITIAL POSITION WAS ADJUSTED NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK BASED ON CONVENTIONAL SATELLITE IMAGERY...MICROWAVE IMAGERY AND A 0100 UTC QUIKSCAT PASS. GIVEN THIS ADJUSTMENT...THE INITIAL MOTION IS SET AT A RATHER UNCERTAIN 305/7. DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES AT 0600 UTC WERE 30 KT FROM TAFB AND SAB...THEREFORE THE INTENSITY IS HELD AT 30 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY. MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS QUICKLY LOSE WHATEVER REPRESENTATION OF THE DEPRESSION THEY HAVE. REGARDLESS...THE GUIDANCE SUITE SUGGESTS THAT THE DEPRESSION SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE MID-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE CENTERED ALONG 25N. THE GLOBAL MODELS DEVELOP A BREAK IN THE RIDGE AS AN UPPER TROUGH DIGS SOUTHWARD ALONG THE CALIFORNIA COAST LATE IN THE WEEK. AS A RESULT...MUCH OF THE GUIDANCE TURNS THE CYCLONE TOWARD THE NORTHWEST LATE IN THE PERIOD. GIVEN THIS SCENARIO...AND THE NORTHWARD ADJUSTMENT IN THE INITIAL LOCATION THE TRACK FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED SIGNIFICANTLY TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK...ESPECIALLY LATER IN THE PERIOD. THIS FORECAST ASSUMES THE CYCLONE WILL REMAIN A DEEP SYSTEM AND FEEL THE EFFECTS OF THE TROUGH. IF THE CYCLONE IS WEAKER THAN FORECASTED...A TRACK MORE TOWARD THE WEST IS POSSIBLE LATER IN THE PERIOD. THE DEPRESSION IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO AN AREA OF SLIGHTLY RELAXED EASTERLY SHEAR AFTER 24 HOURS...PROVIDING AN OPPORTUNITY FOR INTENSIFICATION BEFORE THE CYCLONE MOVES INTO A LESS FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY DRIER AIR AND COOLER SSTS AFTER 72 HOURS. THIS TREND IS REFLECTED IN THE INTENSITY FORECAST...WHICH REMAINS UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 01/0900Z 13.6N 104.6W 30 KT 12HR VT 01/1800Z 14.3N 105.6W 35 KT 24HR VT 02/0600Z 15.0N 106.8W 40 KT 36HR VT 02/1800Z 15.5N 108.3W 45 KT 48HR VT 03/0600Z 15.9N 109.8W 50 KT 72HR VT 04/0600Z 16.8N 113.2W 50 KT 96HR VT 05/0600Z 18.0N 117.0W 45 KT 120HR VT 06/0600Z 21.0N 119.5W 40 KT $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN/STEWART ** WTNT43 KNHC 010859 *** TCDAT3 TROPICAL STORM CHRIS DISCUSSION NUMBER 2 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032006 500 AM EDT TUE AUG 01 2006 CONVENTIONAL AND MICROWAVE SATELLITE DATA THIS MORNING ESTIMATE THAT TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE HAS STRENGTHENED INTO TROPICAL STORM CHRIS...WHILE ALSO DECREASING ITS FORWARD SPEED. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 35 KT IS BASED ON A SATELLITE INTENSITY OF T2.5/35 KT FROM TAFB...A DATA T-NUMBER OF T2.5 FROM SAB...AND TWO CONSECUTIVE AMSU INTENSITY ESTIMATES 35-36 KT. SINCE THE 00Z SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES...DEEP CONVECTION HAS INCREASED IN BOTH DEPTH AND ORGANIZATION AROUND THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 295/08 KT...BASED MAINLY ON MICROWAVE SATELLITE FIX POSITIONS OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. NOW THAT CHRIS HAS BECOME A MORE VERTICALLY DEEP SYSTEM...THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO BE STEERED IN A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION AROUND THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE LARGE-SCALE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE THAT IS LOCATED NORTH OF CHRIS AND WHICH EXTENDS WESTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. AND INTO THE U.S. SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE FUTURE TRACK OF CHRIS HINGES HEAVILY UPON JUST HOW STRONG THE CYCLONE BECOMES. MY FEELING NOW IS THAT CHRIS SHOULD REMAIN A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE THROUGHOUT THE 120-H FORECAST PERIOD...WHICH IS IN CONTRAST TO ALL OF THE GLOBAL MODELS AND THE GFDL MODEL. BY 72 HOURS...CHRIS IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN CONSIDERABLY AND BE DRIVEN WESTWARD OVER OR SOUTH OF HISPANIOLA...OR DISSIPATE COMPLETELY. PART OF THE RAPID DISSIPATION FORECAST BY THE MODELS MAY BE DUE TO POOR INITIALIZATION. A STRONGER AND SOMEWHAT LARGER CYCLONE MAY RESULT IN A DIFFERENT PROGNOSIS OF THE 06Z MODEL RUNS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS TRACK...ALTHOUGH IT NOW EXTENDS OUT TO 120 HOURS...AND IS A LITTLE NORTH OF AND SLOWER THAN THE GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. THE VERTICAL SHEAR THAT HAS BEEN AFFECTING CHRIS IS FORECAST BY ALL THE MODELS TO WEAKEN SOMEWHAT...WHICH WOULD FAVOR AT LEAST SOME SLOW SLOW STRENGTHENING. THE MAIN DILEMMA IS JUST HOW STRONG CHRIS WILL BECOME. CHRIS IS FORECAST TO PASS BETWEEN TWO MID- TO UPPER- LEVEL LOWS CURRENTLY LOCATED EAST OF THE BAHAMAS AND NORTHEAST OF THE CYCLONE. ALL OF THE GLOBAL MODELS GRADUALLY WEAKEN THE TWO LOWS AND THEN MOVE THEM IN TANDEM WESTWARD AFTER 72 HOURS... WITH CHRIS LIKELY WEDGED IN BETWEEN. THIS TYPE OF PATTERN WOULD NORMALLY FAVOR A LOW SHEAR PATTERN THAT WOULD BE CONDUCIVE FOR MORE STRENGTHENING THAN IS CURRENTLY FORECAST...BUT ONLY IF CHRIS REMAINS EXACTLY BETWEEN THE TWO LOWS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS A REVERSAL OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AFTER 48 HOURS...AND IS SIMILAR TO THE SHIPS AND GFDL MODELS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 01/0900Z 16.6N 59.2W 35 KT 12HR VT 01/1800Z 17.3N 61.0W 40 KT 24HR VT 02/0600Z 18.2N 63.2W 45 KT 36HR VT 02/1800Z 19.0N 65.3W 50 KT 48HR VT 03/0600Z 19.9N 67.5W 50 KT 72HR VT 04/0600Z 21.3N 71.2W 50 KT 96HR VT 05/0600Z 22.5N 74.5W 55 KT 120HR VT 06/0600Z 24.0N 77.5W 55 KT $$ FORECASTER STEWART ** WTCA43 TJSJ 010903 *** TCPSP3 BOLETIN TORMENTA TROPICAL CHRIS ADVERTENCIA NUMERO 2 NWS TCP/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL 5 AM AST MARTES 1 DE AGOSTO DE 2006 ...DEPRESION TROPICAL SE INTENSIFICA EN LA TORMENTA TROPICAL CHRIS... .... SE EMITEN NUEVOS AVISOS Y VIGILANCIAS DE TORMENTA TROPICAL... A LAS 5 AM AST...0900 UTC...LOS GOBIERNOS RESPECTIVOS HAN EMITIDO UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL PARA LAS ISLAS DE..ANTIGUA...BARBUDA...ANGUILLA...ST KITTS...NEVIS...SABA...ST.EUSTATIUS ST. BARTHELEMY...ST MARTIN...Y ST. MAARTEN. UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SIGNIFICA QUE CONDICIONES DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SON POSIBLES DENTRO DEL AREA BAJO VIGILANCIA...GENERALMENTE DENTRO DE LAS PROXIMAS 36 HORAS. A LAS 5 AM AST...UNA VIGILANCIA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL HA SIDO EMITIDO PARA PUERTO RICO Y LAS ISLAS VIRGENES AMERICANAS...Y PARA LAS ISLAS VIRGENES BRITANICAS. UNA VIGILANCIA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SIGNIFICA QUE CONDICIONES DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SON POSIBLES DENTRO DEL AREA BAJO VIGILANCIA...GENERALMENTE DENTRO DE LAS PROXIMAS 36 HORAS. PARA INFORMACION ESPECIFICA PARA SU AREA...INCLUYENDO POSIBLES VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS PARA AREAS TERRESTRES...FAVOR DE REFERIRSE A LOS PRODUCTOS EMITIDOS POR SU OFICINA METEOROLOGICA LOCAL. A LAS 5 AM AST...0900Z...EL CENTRO DE LA TORMENTA TROPICAL CRHIS ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 16.6 NORTE...LONGITUD 59.2 OESTE O COMO A 175 MILLAS...280 KILOMETROS...AL ESTE DE ANTIGUA. CHRIS SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL OESTE-NORESTE A CERCA DE 9 MPH...Y ESTE MOVIMIENTO GENERAL SE PRONOSTICA DURRANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. EN LA TRAYECTORIA ACTUAL...CHRIS SE ESPERA QUE SE MUEVA SOBRE O CERCA DE LAS ISLAS DE SOTAVENTO MAS TARDE ESTA NOCHE O TEMPRANO EL MIERCOLES. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS ESTAN EN CERCA DE 40 MPH...65 KILOMETROS POR HORA...CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. ALGUN FORTALECIMIENTO ES POSIBLE DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. UN AVION DE RECONOCIMIENTO ESTA EN ITINERARIO PARA INVESTIGAR LA TORMENTA TROPICAL ESTA TARDE PARA PROVEER UNA INFORMACION MAS EXACTA DE LA FORTALEZA Y LOCALIZACION DE CHRIS. LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SE EXTIENDEN HACIA AFUERA HASTA 35 MILLAS...55 KILOMETROS FUERA DEL CENTRO. LA PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA ESTIMADA ES DE 1009 MB...29.80 PULGADAS. CANTIDADES DE LLUVIA DE 3 A 5 PULGADAS CON CANTIDADES AISLADAS MAS ALTAS HASTA CERCA DE 8 PULGADAS...SON POSIBLES SOBRE LAS ISLAS DE SOTAVENTO NORTE ASOCIADAS CON CHRIS. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 500 AM AST...16.6 NORTE...59.2 OESTE. SE MUEVE AL...OESTE-NOROESTE A CERCA DE 9 MPH. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS...40 MPH. LA PRESION MINIMA CENTRAL...1009 MILIBARAS. UNA ADVERTENCIA INTERMEDIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 8 AM AST SEGUIDA POR UNA ADVERTENCIA COMPLETA A LAS 11 AM AST. $$ ** WTNT83 KNHC 010907 *** TCVAT3 CHRIS WATCH/WARNING BREAKPOINTS/ADVISORY NUMBER 2 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032006 500 AM AST TUE AUG 1 2006 .TROPICAL STORM CHRIS PRC001-003-005-007-009-011-013-015-017-019-021-023-025-027-029- 031-033-035-037-039-041-043-045-047-049-051-053-054-055-057-059- 061-063-065-067-069-071-073-075-077-079-081-083-085-087-089-091- 093-095-097-099-101-103-105-107-109-111-113-115-117-119-121-123- 125-127-129-131-133-135-137-139-141-143-145-147-149-151-153- VIC010-020-030-011500- /E.NEW.KNHC.TR.A.1003.060801T0900Z-000000T0000Z/ 500 AM AST TUE AUG 1 2006 PUERTO-RICO-ALL 18.20N 66.45W VIRGIN-IS.-(U.S.) 18.05N 64.80W $$ ATTN...WFO...SJU... ** WTCA43 TJSJ 010913 *** TCPSP3 BOLETIN TORMENTA TROPICAL CHRIS ADVERTENCIA NUMERO 2 NWS TCP/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL 5 AM AST MARTES 1 DE AGOSTO DE 2006 ...DEPRESION TROPICAL SE INTENSIFICA EN LA TORMENTA TROPICAL CHRIS... .... SE EMITEN NUEVOS AVISOS Y VIGILANCIAS DE TORMENTA TROPICAL... A LAS 5 AM AST...0900 UTC...LOS GOBIERNOS RESPECTIVOS HAN EMITIDO UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL PARA LAS ISLAS DE..ANTIGUA...BARBUDA...ANGUILLA...ST KITTS...NEVIS...SABA...ST.EUSTATIUS ST. BARTHELEMY...ST MARTIN...Y ST. MAARTEN. UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SIGNIFICA QUE CONDICIONES DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SON POSIBLES DENTRO DEL AREA BAJO VIGILANCIA...GENERALMENTE DENTRO DE LAS PROXIMAS 36 HORAS. A LAS 5 AM AST...UNA VIGILANCIA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL HA SIDO EMITIDO PARA PUERTO RICO Y LAS ISLAS VIRGENES AMERICANAS...Y PARA LAS ISLAS VIRGENES BRITANICAS. UNA VIGILANCIA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SIGNIFICA QUE CONDICIONES DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SON POSIBLES DENTRO DEL AREA BAJO VIGILANCIA...GENERALMENTE DENTRO DE LAS PROXIMAS 36 HORAS. PARA INFORMACION ESPECIFICA PARA SU AREA...INCLUYENDO POSIBLES VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS PARA AREAS TERRESTRES...FAVOR DE REFERIRSE A LOS PRODUCTOS EMITIDOS POR SU OFICINA METEOROLOGICA LOCAL. A LAS 5 AM AST...0900Z...EL CENTRO DE LA TORMENTA TROPICAL CHRIS ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 16.6 NORTE...LONGITUD 59.2 OESTE O COMO A 175 MILLAS...280 KILOMETROS...AL ESTE DE ANTIGUA. CHRIS SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL OESTE-NOROESTE A CERCA DE 9 MPH...Y ESTE MOVIMIENTO GENERAL SE PRONOSTICA DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. EN LA TRAYECTORIA ACTUAL...CHRIS SE ESPERA QUE SE MUEVA SOBRE O CERCA DE LAS ISLAS DE SOTAVENTO MAS TARDE ESTA NOCHE O TEMPRANO EL MIERCOLES. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS ESTAN EN CERCA DE 40 MPH...65 KILOMETROS POR HORA...CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. ALGUN FORTALECIMIENTO ES POSIBLE DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. UN AVION DE RECONOCIMIENTO ESTA EN ITINERARIO PARA INVESTIGAR LA TORMENTA TROPICAL ESTA TARDE PARA PROVEER UNA INFORMACION MAS EXACTA DE LA FORTALEZA Y LOCALIZACION DE CHRIS. LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SE EXTIENDEN HACIA AFUERA HASTA 35 MILLAS...55 KILOMETROS FUERA DEL CENTRO. LA PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA ESTIMADA ES DE 1009 MB...29.80 PULGADAS. CANTIDADES DE LLUVIA DE 3 A 5 PULGADAS CON CANTIDADES AISLADAS MAS ALTAS HASTA CERCA DE 8 PULGADAS...SON POSIBLES SOBRE LAS ISLAS DE SOTAVENTO NORTE ASOCIADAS CON CHRIS. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 500 AM AST...16.6 NORTE...59.2 OESTE. SE MUEVE AL...OESTE-NOROESTE A CERCA DE 9 MPH. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS...40 MPH. LA PRESION MINIMA CENTRAL...1009 MILIBARAS. UNA ADVERTENCIA INTERMEDIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 8 AM AST SEGUIDA POR UNA ADVERTENCIA COMPLETA A LAS 11 AM AST. $$ ** WTPN31 PGTW 010900 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL STORM 07W (PRAPIROON) WARNING NR 006 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 010600Z --- NEAR 17.4N 117.6E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 290 DEGREES AT 13 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 17.4N 117.6E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 011800Z --- 17.8N 115.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 020600Z --- 18.3N 113.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 021800Z --- 18.5N 112.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 06 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 030600Z --- 18.7N 110.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 040600Z --- 19.5N 109.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 05 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 050600Z --- 20.9N 107.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 060600Z --- 23.3N 106.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 010900Z POSITION NEAR 17.5N 117.1E. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 07W (PRAPIROON), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 260 NM NORTHWEST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 13 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 010600Z IS 13 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 011500Z, 012100Z, 020300Z AND 020900Z.// ** WTPQ20 BABJ 010900 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TS PRAPIROON 0606 (0606) INITIAL TIME 010900 UTC 00HR 17.3N 117.3E 990HPA 23M/S 30KTS 200KM P12HR WNW 15KM/H P+24HR 18.2N 113.9E 985HPA 28M/S P+48HR 19.2N 112.0E 970HPA 35M/S P+72HR 20.6N 110.9E 970HPA 35M/S= ** WTPH RPLL 010600 *** TTT GALE WARNING 16 AT 0600 01 AUGUST TROPICAL STORM (PRAPIROON) (0606) WAS ESTIMATED BASED ON SATELLITE AND SURFACE DATA AT ONE SEVEN POINT ZERO NORTH ONE ONE SEVEN POINT FIVE EAST FORECAST TO MOVE WEST NORTHWEST AT ZERO FOUR METERS PER SECOND ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN TWO FIVE ZERO KILOMETER RADIUS FROM CENTER ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE NINE NINE FOUR HECTOPASCALS MAXIMUM WINDS TWO ONE METERS PER SECOND NEAR CENTER ONE THREE METERS PER SECOND WITHIN TWO FIVE ZERO KILOMETERS ELSEWHERE FORECAST POSITIONS AT 020600 ONE EIGHT POINT FIVE NORTH ONE ONE FOUR POINT FOUR EAST AT 030600 TWO ZERO POINT ZERO NORTH ONE ONE ONE POINT ONE EAST ALL SHIPS WITHIN STORM AREA ARE REQUESTED TO SEND THREE-HOURLY WEATHER REPORTS TO WEATHER MANILA PD ** WTCA82 TJSJ 010951 *** HLSSJU PRZ001>013-VIZ001-002-AMZ710>750-011630- BULLETIN-EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED TROPICAL STORM CHRIS LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR 530 AM AST TUE AUG 1 2006 ...TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE STRENGTHENS INTO TROPICAL STORM CHRIS... ...NEW TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS AND WATCHES ISSUED... ...WATCHES... TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT RECOMMENDS ACTIONS TO BE TAKEN BY RESIDENTS AND VISITORS OF THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... RESIDENTS AND VISITORS OF THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS PUERTO RICO SHOULD BEGIN TO MAKE PREPARATIONS FOR POSSIBLE TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS BEGINNING LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. ...STORM UPDATE... AT 500 AM AST...TROPICAL DEPRESSION NUMBER THREE STRENGTHENED TO TROPICAL STORM CHRIS AND WAS LOCATED AT LATITUDE 16.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 59.2 WEST...OR ABOUT...175 MILES EAST OF ANTIGUA...OR ABOUT 345 MILES SOUTHEAST OF ST CROIX OR ABOUT 370 MILES SOUTHEAST OF ST THOMAS OR ABOUT 435 MILES SOUTHEAST OF SAN JUAN. THE TROPICAL STORM WAS MOVING WEST NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH...WITH THIS GENERAL MOTION EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE TROPICAL STORM THIS AFTERNOON. ...WIND IMPACTS... WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TONIGHT OVER THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS...WITH SUSTAINED WINDS FORECAST TO REACH AROUND 50 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS BY EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING AS TROPICAL STORM CHRIS APPROACHES THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS. WINDS OVER PUERTO RICO ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE TO NEAR 60 MPH BY WEDNSEDAY MORNING WITH STRONGER GUSTS ALONG THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE ISLAND AND IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS. ...MARINE IMPACTS... SURF WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE LOCAL ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS AND THROUGH THE ANEGADA PASSAGE AND THE ATLANTIC THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND WILL LIKELY REACH 8 TO 9 FEET AS TROPICAL STORM CHRIS PASSES. SMALL CRAFT SHOULD PLAN TO RETURN TO SAFE HARBOR LATER THIS EVENING AND PLAN TO REMAIN IN PORT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. ...RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL... SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE WESTERN FRINGES OF TROPICAL STORM CHRIS SHOULD BEGIN LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND OVER EASTERN SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO BY EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS ARE POSSIBLE AS THE CENTER OF THE STORM PASSES JUST NORTHEAST OF THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO ON ITS FORECAST TRACK. RAINFALL TOTALS OF AT LEAST THREE TO SIX INCHES ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST INTERIOR SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO. RIVERS ACROSS PUERTO RICO COULD EXPERIENCE RAPID RISES WITH SOME RIVERS EXCEEDING BANKFULL ON WEDNESDAY. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON TROPICAL STORM CHRIS CAN BE FOUND IN THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER TROPICAL CYCLONE PRODUCTS AND TROPICAL CYCLONE MARINE ADVISORIES. ...OR VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUERTO RICO AND U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS WEBSITE ON THE INTERNET AT (ALL LOWERCASE LETTERS). HTTP://WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/SJU THE NEXT HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY 1130 AM AST BY YOUR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE IN SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO. RGZ ** WTPQ20 RJTD 010900 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TS 0606 PRAPIROON (0606) ANALYSIS PSTN 010900UTC 17.5N 117.0E FAIR MOVE WNW 10KT PRES 996HPA MXWD 035KT 30KT 110NM FORECAST 24HF 020900UTC 18.3N 114.0E 80NM 70% MOVE W 07KT PRES 990HPA MXWD 045KT 45HF 030600UTC 18.8N 112.6E 150NM 70% MOVE WNW SLOWLY PRES 980HPA MXWD 055KT 69HF 040600UTC 20.0N 110.9E 220NM 70% MOVE WNW SLOWLY PRES 975HPA MXWD 060KT = ** WTPH20 RPMM 010600 *** TTT GALE WARNING 16 AT 0600 01 AUGUST TROPICAL STORM (PRAPIROON) {0606}WAS ESTIMATED BASED ON SATELLITE AND SURFACE DATA AT ONE SEVEN POINT ZERO NORTH ONE ONE SEVEN POINT FIVE EAST FORECAST TO MOVE WEST NORTHWEST AT ZERO FOUR METERS PER SECOND ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN TWO FIVE ZERO KILOMETER RADIUS FROM CENTER ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE NINE NINE FOUR HECTOPASCALS MAXIMUM WINDS TWO ONE METERS PER SECOND NEAR CENTER ONE THREE METERS PER SECOND WITHIN TWO FIVE ZERO KILOMETERS ELSEWHERE FORECAST POSITIONS AT 020600 ONE EIGHT POINT FIVE NORTH ONE ONE FOUR POINT FOUR EAST AT 030600 TWO ZERO POINT ZERO NORTH ONE ONE ONE POINT ONE EAST ALL SHIPS WITHIN STORM AREA ARE REQUESTED TO SEND THREE HOURLY WEATHER REPORTS TO WEATHER MANILA PD WEATHER MANILA = ** WTPN31 PHNC 011000 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// REF/A/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN/PEARL HARBOR HI/010935AUG2006// AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL STORM 07E (FABIO) WARNING NR 003 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 010600Z --- NEAR 14.7N 124.0W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 285 DEGREES AT 12 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 14.7N 124.0W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 011800Z --- 15.2N 126.4W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 13 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 020600Z --- 15.7N 129.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 13 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 021800Z --- 16.2N 131.7W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 11 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 030600Z --- 16.5N 134.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 040600Z --- 16.5N 138.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 12 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 050600Z --- 16.5N 143.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 12 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 060600Z --- 16.5N 148.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: 011000Z POSITION NEAR 14.9N 124.8W. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 010600Z IS 12 FEET. AT 010600Z, TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED 1397 NM W OF ACAPULCO. NEXT WARNINGS AT 011600Z, 012200Z, 020400Z AND 021000Z. REFER TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION 08E (NONAME) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PHNC) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.// ** WTSS20 VHHH 011045 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT 010900 UTC, TROPICAL STORM PRAPIROON (0606) WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 990 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES OF ONE SEVEN POINT FOUR DEGREES NORTH (17.4 N) ONE ONE SEVEN POINT THREE DEGREES EAST (117.3 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE WEST-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 9 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 40 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 90 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 180 NAUTICAL MILES. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 020900 UTC ONE EIGHT POINT TWO DEGREES NORTH (18.2 N) ONE ONE FOUR POINT ZERO DEGREES EAST (114.0 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 55 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 030900 UTC ONE NINE POINT THREE DEGREES NORTH (19.3 N) ONE ONE TWO POINT FOUR DEGREES EAST (112.4 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 60 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 040900 UTC TWO ZERO POINT FIVE DEGREES NORTH (20.5 N) ONE ONE ONE POINT FIVE DEGREES EAST (111.5 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 60 KNOTS. ** WTSS20 VHHH 011045 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT 010900 UTC, TROPICAL STORM PRAPIROON (0606) WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 990 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES OF ONE SEVEN POINT FOUR DEGREES NORTH (17.4 N) ONE ONE SEVEN POINT THREE DEGREES EAST (117.3 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE WEST-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 9 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 40 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 90 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 180 NAUTICAL MILES. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 020900 UTC ONE EIGHT POINT TWO DEGREES NORTH (18.2 N) ONE ONE FOUR POINT ZERO DEGREES EAST (114.0 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 55 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 030900 UTC ONE NINE POINT THREE DEGREES NORTH (19.3 N) ONE ONE TWO POINT FOUR DEGREES EAST (112.4 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 60 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 040900 UTC TWO ZERO POINT FIVE DEGREES NORTH (20.5 N) ONE ONE ONE POINT FIVE DEGREES EAST (111.5 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 60 KNOTS. ** WTPN32 PHNC 011000 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// REF/A/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN/PEARL HARBOR HI/010930AUG2006// AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 08E WARNING NR 002 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 010600Z --- NEAR 13.4N 104.3W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 305 DEGREES AT 07 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT REPEAT POSIT: 13.4N 104.3W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 011800Z --- 14.3N 105.6W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 020600Z --- 15.0N 106.8W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 021800Z --- 15.5N 108.3W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 07 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 030600Z --- 15.9N 109.8W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 060 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 040600Z --- 16.8N 113.2W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 060 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 10 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 050600Z --- 18.0N 117.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 060600Z --- 21.0N 119.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT --- REMARKS: 011000Z POSITION NEAR 13.7N 104.7W. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 010600Z IS 11 FEET. AT 010600Z, TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED 326 NM SW OF ACAPULCO. NEXT WARNINGS AT 011600Z, 012200Z, 020400Z AND 021000Z. REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 07E (FABIO) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PHNC) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.// ** WTNT33 KNHC 011149 *** TCPAT3 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM CHRIS INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 2A NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032006 800 AM AST TUE AUG 01 2006 ...CHRIS HEADED TOWARD THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE ISLANDS OF ANTIGUA...BARBUDA...ANGUILLA...ST. KITTS... NEVIS...SABA...ST. EUSTATIUS...ST. BARTHELEMY...ST. MARTIN...AND ST. MAARTEN. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS...AND FOR THE BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 800 AM AST...1200Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CHRIS WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 59.8 WEST OR ABOUT 135 MILES...215 KM...EAST OF ANTIGUA. CHRIS IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/HR... AND THIS GENERAL HEADING IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...CHRIS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER OR NEAR THE NORTHERNMOST LEEWARD ISLANDS LATER TONIGHT OR EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE TROPICAL STORM THIS AFTERNOON TO PROVIDE A MORE ACCURATE ESTIMATE OF THE STRENGTH AND LOCATION OF CHRIS. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES...55 KM FROM THE CENTER. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1009 MB...29.80 INCHES. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS TO NEAR 8 INCHES...ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS IN ASSOCIATION WITH CHRIS. REPEATING THE 800 AM AST POSITION...16.8 N...59.8 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 1100 AM AST. $$ FORECASTER PASCH