** WTSR20 WSSS 311800 *** NO STORM WARNING= ** WTPQ20 BABJ 010000 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TD04 INITIAL TIME 010000 UTC 00HR 17.0N 118.7E 1002HPA 16M/S P12HR W 20KM/H P+24HR 17.1N 114.0E 998HPA 18M/S= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 010000 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TD ANALYSIS PSTN 010000UTC 16.7N 118.4E POOR MOVE W 11KT PRES 1000HPA MXWD 030KT FORECAST 24HF 020000UTC 17.7N 114.7E 150NM 70% MOVE W 09KT PRES 994HPA MXWD 040KT = ** WTPQ30 RJTD 010000 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING REASONING NO. 1 FOR TD LOCATED AT 16.7N 118.4E 1.GENERAL COMMENTS POSITION FORECAST IS MAINLY BASED ON NWP AND PERSISTENCY. 2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION NOTHING PARTICULAR TO EXPLAIN. 3.MOTION FORECAST POSITION ACCURACY AT 010000 UTC IS POOR. TD WILL MOVE AT THE SAME SPEED FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS THEN DECELERATE. TD WILL MOVE WEST-NORTHWEST FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. 4.INTENSITY FORECAST TD WILL BE GRADED UP TO TS WITHIN 24 HOURS. TD WILL DEVELOP BECAUSE CYCLONE WILL STAY IN HIGH SST AREA. FI-NUMBER WILL BE 2.5 AFTER 24 HOURS.= ** WTSS20 VHHH 010145 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT 010000 UTC, TROPICAL DEPRESSION OVER THE SOUTH CHINA SEA WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 998 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 90 NAUTICAL MILES OF ONE SIX POINT SEVEN DEGREES NORTH (16.7 N) ONE ONE EIGHT POINT FIVE DEGREES EAST (118.5 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE WEST-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 11 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 30 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 120 NAUTICAL MILES. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 020000 UTC ONE EIGHT POINT ONE DEGREES NORTH (18.1 N) ONE ONE FOUR POINT SEVEN DEGREES EAST (114.7 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 45 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 030000 UTC ONE EIGHT POINT NINE DEGREES NORTH (18.9 N) ONE ONE ONE POINT NINE DEGREES EAST (111.9 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 55 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 040000 UTC ONE NINE POINT THREE DEGREES NORTH (19.3 N) ONE ONE ZERO POINT THREE DEGREES EAST (110.3 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 55 KNOTS. ** WTSS20 VHHH 010145 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT 010000 UTC, TROPICAL DEPRESSION OVER THE SOUTH CHINA SEA WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 998 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 90 NAUTICAL MILES OF ONE SIX POINT SEVEN DEGREES NORTH (16.7 N) ONE ONE EIGHT POINT FIVE DEGREES EAST (118.5 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE WEST-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 11 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 30 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 120 NAUTICAL MILES. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 020000 UTC ONE EIGHT POINT ONE DEGREES NORTH (18.1 N) ONE ONE FOUR POINT SEVEN DEGREES EAST (114.7 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 45 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 030000 UTC ONE EIGHT POINT NINE DEGREES NORTH (18.9 N) ONE ONE ONE POINT NINE DEGREES EAST (111.9 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 55 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 040000 UTC ONE NINE POINT THREE DEGREES NORTH (19.3 N) ONE ONE ZERO POINT THREE DEGREES EAST (110.3 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 55 KNOTS. ** WTPN31 PGTW 010300 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL STORM 07W WARNING NR 005 UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL DEPRESSION 07W 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 010000Z --- NEAR 16.8N 118.8E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 275 DEGREES AT 13 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 16.8N 118.8E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 011200Z --- 17.1N 116.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 020000Z --- 17.6N 114.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 021200Z --- 17.9N 113.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 07 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 030000Z --- 18.3N 111.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 040000Z --- 19.0N 109.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 04 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 050000Z --- 20.1N 108.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 060000Z --- 22.4N 107.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 010300Z POSITION NEAR 16.9N 118.2E. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 07W, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 185 NM NORTH OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 13 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. 010000Z MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE FIXES AND A 311924Z AMSU PASS INDICATE THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) IS APPROXIMATELY 100 NM FURTHER WEST THAN THE PREVIOUS 1800Z INFRARED FIXES INDICATED. THIS IS NOT DUE TO A SUDDEN ACCELERATION OF THE SYSTEM, RATHER A HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN THE POSITION OF THE LLCC. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 010000Z IS 13 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 010900Z, 011500Z, 012100Z AND 020300Z.// ** WTNT43 KNHC 010250 *** TCDAT3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE DISCUSSION NUMBER 1 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032006 1100 PM EDT MON JUL 31 2006 REPORTS FROM FRENCH BUOY 41100 LATE THIS AFTERNOON INDICATED THAT THERE WAS A WEAK CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE APPROACHING THE LESSER ANTILLES. A QUIKSCAT PASS AT 21Z CONFIRMED THAT THE CIRCULATION EXISTED BUT ALSO INDICATED THAT THE CIRCULATION WAS VERY SMALL. OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS...THE SYSTEM HAS BEEN MAINTAINING ENOUGH DEEP CONVECTION TO BE CONSIDERED A TROPICAL DEPRESSION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET TO 30 KT BASED ON THE QUIKSCAT DATA AND THE DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS FROM TAFB AND SAB. THE CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION IS LOCATED NEAR THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE CONVECTIVE MASS...DUE TO WESTERLY SHEAR RESULTING PRIMARILY FROM STRONG EASTERLIES IN THE LOWER TROPOSPHERE. THE UPPER ENVIRONMENT AHEAD OF THE DEPRESSION IS COMPLICATED...AND THE EVOLUTION OF A LARGE UPPER-LOW JUST EAST OF THE BAHAMAS WILL BE IMPORTANT TO THE FUTURE OF THE DEPRESSION. SOME GUIDANCE...PARTICULARLY THE UKMET...SUGGESTS THAT THIS UPPER LOW WILL KEEP A STRONG WESTERLY SHEARING FLOW IN PLACE IN THE PATH OF THE DEPRESSION. OTHER GLOBAL MODELS RELAX THIS FLOW...BUT IT MAY NOT MATTER MUCH...AS THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO DEAL WITH A VERY DRY AIR MASS. THE GFDL MODEL DISSIPATES THE SYSTEM...AS DO ALL OF THE GLOBAL MODELS. THE SHIPS MODEL SHOWS A VERY SLOW DEVELOPMENT TREND...BUT PERHAPS THIS MODEL CANNOT APPRECIATE JUST HOW FRAGILE A SYSTEM THE DEPRESSION IS RIGHT NOW. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS THE GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE THAT SUGGESTS THIS CYCLONE MAY BE SHORT LIVED. THE INITIAL MOTION IS 295/14. THE DOMINANT STEERING IS EXPECTED TO BE PROVIDED BY THE MID- TO LOWER-TROPOSPHERIC FLOW. THE DEPRESSION IS THEREFORE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE GENERALLY TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST TO THE SOUTH OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE...WITH SOME REDUCTION IN FORWARD SPEED DUE TO A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE ASSOCIATED WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER-LOW. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE SHALLOW BAM. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 01/0300Z 16.6N 59.4W 30 KT 12HR VT 01/1200Z 17.4N 61.2W 30 KT 24HR VT 02/0000Z 18.3N 63.4W 30 KT 36HR VT 02/1200Z 19.2N 65.5W 30 KT 48HR VT 03/0000Z 20.1N 67.7W 30 KT 72HR VT 04/0000Z 21.5N 71.5W 25 KT...DISSIPATING 96HR VT 05/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER FRANKLIN ** WTPZ43 KNHC 010252 *** TCDEP3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 1 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082006 800 PM PDT MON JUL 31 2006 SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE DISTURBANCE SOUTHWEST OF ACAPULCO MEXICO HAS ACQUIRED ENOUGH DEEP CONVECTION AND BECOME SUFFICIENTLY ORGANIZED TO BE UPGRADED TO A 30 KT TROPICAL DEPRESSION. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY UNANIMOUS SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 30 KT FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB. THE DEPRESSION IS CURRENTLY UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF MODERATE EASTERLY SHEAR AND THE CENTER IS ESTIMATED TO BE LOCATED NEAR THE EAST SIDE OF AN AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION. GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THE SHEAR MAY RELAX A BIT ALLOWING THE CYCLONE AN OPPORTUNITY TO STRENGTHEN OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. TOWARDS THE END OF THE FORECAST...THE DEPRESSION WILL BE NEARING COOLER WATERS AND A MORE STABLE AIR MASS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CONSISTENT WITH THE SHIPS MODEL. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS AN UNCERTAIN 280/9. THE CYCLONE IS CURRENTLY BEING STEERED AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYER RIDGE OVER CENTRAL MEXICO BUT THE VERTICAL SHEAR IS CREATING ERRATIC SHORT-TERM MOTION. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS THE CYCLONE CONTINUING TO MOVE IN A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWESTWARD DIRECTION THROUGH MOST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AS A BROAD TROUGH DEVELOPS OFF THE WEST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES. TOWARD THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...THE DYNAMICAL MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE. SOME OF THE MODELS INDICATE THE TROUGH WILL LIFT NORTHWARD AND INCREASED RIDGING WILL DEVELOP TO THE NORTH OF THE CYCLONE WHILE OTHER MODELS SHOW THE TROUGH REMAINING IN PLACE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST ASSUMES THE TROUGH WILL LIFT SUFFICIENTLY NORTH TO ALLOW A GRADUAL TURN TOWARDS THE WEST. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 01/0300Z 12.7N 104.6W 30 KT 12HR VT 01/1200Z 13.1N 106.0W 35 KT 24HR VT 02/0000Z 13.7N 107.7W 40 KT 36HR VT 02/1200Z 14.3N 109.4W 45 KT 48HR VT 03/0000Z 14.7N 111.7W 50 KT 72HR VT 04/0000Z 15.0N 115.3W 50 KT 96HR VT 05/0000Z 16.1N 119.0W 45 KT 120HR VT 06/0000Z 18.0N 122.5W 40 KT $$ FORECASTER RHOME/FRANKLIN ** WTNT33 KNHC 010253 *** TCPAT3 BULLETIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032006 1100 PM AST MON JUL 31 2006 ...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS NEAR THE LEEWARD ISLANDS... AT 11 PM AST...0300Z...THE GOVERNMENTS OF FRANCE AND THE NETHERLANDS ANTILLES HAVE ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE ISLANDS OF SABA...ST. EUSTATIUS...ST. MAARTEN/ST. MARTIN...AND ST. BARTHELEMY. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING WITH LITTLE ADVANCE NOTICE COULD BE REQUIRED FOR ANTIGUA...BARBUDA...ANGUILLA...ST. KITTS... NEVIS...AND THE BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 1100 PM AST...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 59.4 WEST OR ABOUT 160 MILES...260 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF ANTIGUA. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 16 MPH...AND THIS GENERAL HEADING WITH SOME DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER OR NEAR THE NORTHERNMOST LEEWARD ISLANDS TOMORROW. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1011 MB...29.85 INCHES. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS TO NEAR 6 INCHES...ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE DEPRESSION. REPEATING THE 1100 PM AST POSITION...16.6 N...59.4 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 16 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1011 MB. AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 200 AM AST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 500 AM AST. $$ FORECASTER FRANKLIN ** WTPZ23 KNHC 010253 *** TCMEP3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082006 0300 UTC TUE AUG 01 2006 TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.7N 104.6W AT 01/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1009 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.7N 104.6W AT 01/0300Z AT 01/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.6N 104.2W FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 13.1N 106.0W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 30SE 60SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 13.7N 107.7W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 60SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 14.3N 109.4W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 55NE 40SE 50SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 14.7N 111.7W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 65NE 45SE 45SW 65NW. FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 15.0N 115.3W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 65NE 45SE 45SW 65NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 05/0000Z 16.1N 119.0W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 06/0000Z 18.0N 122.5W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.7N 104.6W NEXT ADVISORY AT 01/0900Z $$ FORECASTER RHOME/FRANKLIN ** WTNT23 KNHC 010254 *** TCMAT3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032006 0300 UTC TUE AUG 01 2006 AT 11 PM AST...0300Z...THE GOVERNMENTS OF FRANCE AND THE NETHERLANDS ANTILLES HAVE ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE ISLANDS OF SABA...ST. EUSTATIUS...ST. MAARTEN/ST. MARTIN AND ST. BARTHELEMY. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING WITH LITTLE ADVANCE NOTICE COULD BE REQUIRED FOR ANTIGUA...BARBUDA...ANGUILLA...ST. KITTS... NEVIS...AND THE BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.6N 59.4W AT 01/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 14 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1011 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.6N 59.4W AT 01/0300Z AT 01/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.4N 58.9W FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 17.4N 61.2W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 18.3N 63.4W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 19.2N 65.5W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 20.1N 67.7W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 21.5N 71.5W...DISSIPATING MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 05/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.6N 59.4W NEXT ADVISORY AT 01/0900Z $$ FORECASTER FRANKLIN ** WTPZ22 KNHC 010255 *** TCMEP2 TROPICAL STORM FABIO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072006 0300 UTC TUE AUG 01 2006 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.5N 123.3W AT 01/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 12 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.5N 123.3W AT 01/0300Z AT 01/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.4N 122.7W FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 14.8N 125.0W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 35SE 35SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 15.2N 127.3W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 40SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 15.8N 129.7W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 40SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 16.3N 132.0W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 16.5N 136.5W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 25SE 25SW 40NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 05/0000Z 16.5N 141.5W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 06/0000Z 16.5N 146.5W...REMNANT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.5N 123.3W NEXT ADVISORY AT 01/0900Z $$ FORECASTER RHOME ** WTPZ42 KNHC 010255 *** TCDEP2 TROPICAL STORM FABIO DISCUSSION NUMBER 2 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072006 800 PM PDT MON JUL 31 2006 SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES HAVE INCREASED OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS TO 45 KT FROM TAFB...35 KT FROM SAB AND AFWA...AND 31 KT FROM UW CIMSS ADT. ACCORDINGLY...THE CYCLONE HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO TROPICAL STORM FABIO WITH AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 35 KT. FABIO IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN WITHIN A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. THEREFORE...ONLY MODEST STRENGTHENING IS SHOWN THROUGH 36 HOURS. THEREAFTER...THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO ENCOUNTER A RATHER HOSTILE ENVIRONMENT CONSISTING OF INCREASING VERTICAL SHEAR...DRY AIR IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER ATMOSPHERE...AND PROGRESSIVELY COOLER WATERS. THESE ENVIRONMENTAL CONTROLS ARE EXPECTED TO CAUSE WEAKENING WITH MANY OF THE GLOBAL MODELS SUGGESTING THAT THE SYSTEM COULD DISSIPATE BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST MAINTAINS THE CYCLONE LONGER THAN THE DYNAMICAL MODELS REPRESENTS A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE SHIPS AND GFDL MODELS. INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 280/12. GUIDANCE IS SPLIT INTO TWO CAMPS. THE DYNAMICAL MODELS MAINTAIN A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD HEADING THROUGH 48 HOURS THEN TURN THE CYCLONE WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD. CONVERSELY...THE BAM MODELS SHOW A NORTHWEST MOTION THROUGH 48 HOUR WITH ONLY A SLIGHT BEND TOWARD THE WEST THEREAFTER. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SPLITS THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THESE TWO SCENARIOS AND IS ALONG THE NORTH SIDE OF THE DYNAMICAL MODEL SUITE. THIS ALSO REPRESENTS A SLIGHT NORTHWARD SHIFT FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 01/0300Z 14.5N 123.3W 35 KT 12HR VT 01/1200Z 14.8N 125.0W 40 KT 24HR VT 02/0000Z 15.2N 127.3W 45 KT 36HR VT 02/1200Z 15.8N 129.7W 45 KT 48HR VT 03/0000Z 16.3N 132.0W 40 KT 72HR VT 04/0000Z 16.5N 136.5W 35 KT 96HR VT 05/0000Z 16.5N 141.5W 30 KT 120HR VT 06/0000Z 16.5N 146.5W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW $$ FORECASTER RHOME/FRANKLIN ** WTCA43 TJSJ 010310 *** TCPSP3 BOLETIN DEPRESION TROPICAL TRES ADVERTENCIA NUMERO 1 NWS TCP/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL 11 PM AST LUNES 31 DE JULIO DE 2006 ...SE FORMA DEPRESION TROPICAL CERCA DE LAS ISLAS DE SOTAVENTO... A LAS 11 PM...0300Z...LOS GOBIERNOS DE FRANCIA Y LAS ANTILLAS HOLANDESAS HAN EMITIDO UNA VIGILANCIA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL PARA LAS ISLAS DE SABAD...SAN EUSTATIUS...SAN MAARTEN/SAN MARTIN...Y SAN BARTHELEMY. UNA VIGILANCIA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SIGNIFICA QUE ES POSIBLE QUE OCURRAN CONDICIONES DE TORMENTA TROPICAL DENTRO DE LAS PROXIMAS 12 A 24 HORAS. UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL CON POCO TIEMPO DE ANTICIPACION PODRIAN REQUERIRSE PARA ANTIGUA...BARBUDA...ANGUILLA...SAN KITTS...NEVIS... Y LAS ISLAS VIRGENES BRITANICAS TEMPRANO EL MARTES EN LA MANANA. PARA INFORMACION ESPECIFICA PARA SU AREA...INCLUYENDO POSIBLES VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS PARA AREAS TERRESTRES...FAVOR DE REFERIRSE A LOS PRODUCTOS EMITIDOS POR SU OFICINA METEOROLOGICA LOCAL. A LAS 11 PM AST...0300Z...EL CENTRO DE LA TORMENTA TROPICAL TRES ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 16.6 NORTE...LONGITUD 59.4 OESTE O COMO A 160 MILLAS...260 KM...ESTE-SURESTE DE ANTIGUA. LA DEPRESION SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL OESTE-NORESTE A CERCA DE 16 MPH...Y SE ESPERA QUE ESTA TRAYECTORIA GENERAL CON ALGUNA DISMINUCION EN SU VELOCIDAD DE TRASLACCION CONTINUE POR LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. EN SU TRAYECTORIA PROJECTADA...SE ESPERA QUE LA DEPRESION SE MUEVA SOBRE O CERCA DE LAS ISLAS MAS NORTE DE SOTAVENTO MANANA. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS ESTAN EN CERCA DE 35 MPH...55 KM/HR...CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. SE PRONOSTICA POCO CAMBIO EN INTENSIDAD DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS LA PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA ESTIMADA ES DE 1011 MB...29.85 PULGADAS. CANTIDADES DE LLUVIA DE 2 A 4 PULGADAS CON CANTIDADES AISLADAS MAS ALTAS HASTA CERCA DE 6 PULGADAS...SON POSIBLES SOBRE LAS ISLAS DE SOTAVENTO NORTE ASOCIADAS CON LA DEPRESION. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 1100 PM AST...16.6 NORTE...59.4 OESTE. SE MUEVE AL...OESTE-NOROESTE A CERCA DE 16 MPH. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS...35 MPH. LA PRESION MINIMA CENTRAL...1011 MILIBARAS. UNA ADVERTENCIA INTERMEDIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 2 AM AST SEGUIDA POR UN BOLETIN MAS DETALLADO A LAS 5 AM AST. $$ ** WTPH20 RPMM 010000 *** T T T GALE WARNING 15 AT 0000 01 AUGUST TROPICAL DEPRESSION WAS ESTIMATED BASED ON SATELLITE AND SURFACE DATA AT ONE SIX POINT EIGHT NORTH ONE ONE POINT EAST FORECAST TO MOVE WEST NORTHWEST AT ZERO FOUR METERS PER SECOND ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN TWO FIVE ZERO KILOMETER RADIUS FROM CENTER ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE NINE NINEFOUR HECTOPASCALS MAXIMUM WINDS TWO ONE METER PER SECOND NEAR CENTER FORECAST POSITIONS AT 020000 ONE EIGHT POINT ONE NORTH ONE ONE FOUR POINT THREE EAST AT 030000 ONE NINE POINT TWO NORTH ONE ONE POINT ZERO EAST ALL SHIPS WITHIN STORM AREA ARE REQUESTED TO SEND THREE HOURLY WEATHER REPORTS TO WEATHER MANILA PD WEATHER MANILA= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 010300 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TD ANALYSIS PSTN 010300UTC 16.7N 118.4E POOR MOVE W 08KT PRES 1000HPA MXWD 030KT FORECAST 24HF 020300UTC 17.7N 114.7E 150NM 70% MOVE W 08KT PRES 994HPA MXWD 040KT = ** WTPH RPLL 010000 *** TTT GALE WARNING 15 AT 0000 01 JULY TROPICAL DEPRESSION WAS ESTIMATED BASED ON SAT. AND SFC DATA AT 16.8N 118.1E FORECAST TO MOVE WNW AT 04MPS ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN 250KMS RADIUS FROM CENTER EXTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE 994 HECTO- PASCALS MAXIMUM WINDS 21MPS NEAR CENTER FORECAST POSITIONS AT 020000 18.1N 114.4E AT 030000 19.2N 111.0E ALL SHIPS WITHIN STORMS AREA ARE REQUESTED TO SEND 3-HRLY WEATHER REPORTS TO WEATHER MANILA PD= ** WTPN31 PHNC 010400 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// REF/A/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN/PEARL HARBOR HI/010335AUG2006// AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL STORM 07E (FABIO) WARNING NR 002 UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL DEPRESSION 07E 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 010000Z --- NEAR 14.4N 122.7W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 280 DEGREES AT 12 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 14.4N 122.7W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 011200Z --- 14.8N 125.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 11 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 020000Z --- 15.2N 127.3W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 12 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 021200Z --- 15.8N 129.7W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 11 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 030000Z --- 16.3N 132.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 11 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 040000Z --- 16.5N 136.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 12 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 050000Z --- 16.5N 141.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 12 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 060000Z --- 16.5N 146.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: 010400Z POSITION NEAR 14.5N 123.5W. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 010000Z IS 12 FEET. AT 010000, TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED 1140 NM SSW OF SAN_DIEGO. NEXT WARNINGS AT 011000Z, 011600Z, 012200Z AND 020400Z. REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 08E (NONAME) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PHNC) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.// ** WTSS20 VHHH 010445 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING TROPICAL DEPRESSION OVER THE SOUTH CHINA SEA HAS INTENSIFIED INTO A TROPICAL STORM WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 992 HECTOPASCALS. AT 010300 UTC, IT WAS CENTRED WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES OF ONE SEVEN POINT ZERO DEGREES NORTH (17.0 N) ONE ONE EIGHT POINT ZERO DEGREES EAST (118.0 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE WEST-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 11 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 35 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 90 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 150 NAUTICAL MILES. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 020300 UTC ONE EIGHT POINT THREE DEGREES NORTH (18.3 N) ONE ONE THREE POINT SIX DEGREES EAST (113.6 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 50 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 030300 UTC ONE EIGHT POINT NINE DEGREES NORTH (18.9 N) ONE ONE ONE POINT SEVEN DEGREES EAST (111.7 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 55 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 040300 UTC ONE NINE POINT FOUR DEGREES NORTH (19.4 N) ONE ONE ZERO POINT TWO DEGREES EAST (110.2 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 55 KNOTS. ** WTSS20 VHHH 010445 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING TROPICAL DEPRESSION OVER THE SOUTH CHINA SEA HAS INTENSIFIED INTO A TROPICAL STORM WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 992 HECTOPASCALS. AT 010300 UTC, IT WAS CENTRED WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES OF ONE SEVEN POINT ZERO DEGREES NORTH (17.0 N) ONE ONE EIGHT POINT ZERO DEGREES EAST (118.0 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE WEST-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 11 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 35 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 90 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 150 NAUTICAL MILES. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 020300 UTC ONE EIGHT POINT THREE DEGREES NORTH (18.3 N) ONE ONE THREE POINT SIX DEGREES EAST (113.6 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 50 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 030300 UTC ONE EIGHT POINT NINE DEGREES NORTH (18.9 N) ONE ONE ONE POINT SEVEN DEGREES EAST (111.7 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 55 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 040300 UTC ONE NINE POINT FOUR DEGREES NORTH (19.4 N) ONE ONE ZERO POINT TWO DEGREES EAST (110.2 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 55 KNOTS. ** WTNT80 EGRR 010513 *** MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 01.08.2006 TROPICAL STORM FABIO ANALYSED POSITION : 14.5N 122.3W ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP072006 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 01.08.2006 14.5N 122.3W WEAK 12UTC 01.08.2006 14.9N 125.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 02.08.2006 15.9N 128.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 02.08.2006 16.0N 131.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 03.08.2006 17.0N 134.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 03.08.2006 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE ANALYSED POSITION : 16.7N 58.7W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL032006 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 01.08.2006 16.7N 58.7W WEAK 12UTC 01.08.2006 17.5N 61.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 02.08.2006 18.9N 62.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 02.08.2006 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT-E F/C POSITION AT T+12: 14.5N 104.9W ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP082006 PLEASE NOTE THAT THE UK GLOBAL MODEL DOES NOT RESOLVE A CLOSED CIRCULATION IN ITS ANALYSIS AT 00Z 1/8/06 IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS TROPICAL DEPRESSION. THERE IS A POORLY DEFINED CIRCULATION JUST ABOUT DISCERNIBLE AT T+12, POSITIONS GIVEN BELOW: VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 01.08.2006 14.5N 104.9W WEAK 00UTC 02.08.2006 14.5N 104.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 02.08.2006 14.4N 106.4W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 03.08.2006 14.0N 106.3W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 03.08.2006 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 010513 ** WTPN32 PHNC 010400 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// REF/A/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN/PEARL HARBOR HI/010330AUG2006// AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 08E WARNING NR 001 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 010000Z --- NEAR 12.6N 104.2W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 280 DEGREES AT 09 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT REPEAT POSIT: 12.6N 104.2W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 011200Z --- 13.1N 106.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 020000Z --- 13.7N 107.7W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 021200Z --- 14.3N 109.4W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 11 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 030000Z --- 14.7N 111.7W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 060 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 040000Z --- 15.0N 115.3W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 060 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 09 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 050000Z --- 16.1N 119.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 060000Z --- 18.0N 122.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT --- REMARKS: 010400Z POSITION NEAR 12.8N 104.8W. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 010000Z IS 8 FEET. AT 010000Z, TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED 355 NM SW OF ACAPULCO. NEXT WARNINGS AT 011000Z, 011600Z, 012200Z AND 020400Z. REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 07E (FABIO) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PHNC) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.// ** WTNT33 KNHC 010558 *** TCPAT3 BULLETIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 1A NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032006 200 AM AST TUE AUG 01 2006 ...TROPICAL DEPRESSION GETTING BETTER ORGANIZED EAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS... A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE ISLANDS OF SABA... ST. EUSTATIUS...ST. MAARTEN/ST. MARTIN...AND ST. BARTHELEMY. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED FOR THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO LATER THIS MORNING. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING WITH LITTLE ADVANCE NOTICE COULD BE REQUIRED FOR ANTIGUA...BARBUDA...ANGUILLA...ST. KITTS... NEVIS...AND THE BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS LATER THIS MORNING. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 200 AM AST...0600Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE HAD REFORMED FARTHER EAST NEAR LATITUDE 16.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 58.8 WEST OR ABOUT 200 MILES...325 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF ANTIGUA. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH...AND THIS GENERAL HEADING IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER OR NEAR THE NORTHERNMOST LEEWARD ISLANDS LATER TONIGHT OR EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS... AND THE DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1011 MB...29.85 INCHES. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS TO NEAR 6 INCHES...ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE DEPRESSION. REPEATING THE 200 AM AST POSITION...16.5 N...58.8 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1011 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 500 AM AST. $$ FORECASTER STEWART