** WTSS20 VHHH 311945 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT 311800 UTC, TROPICAL DEPRESSION NEAR LUZON WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 998 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 90 NAUTICAL MILES OF ONE SIX POINT SIX DEGREES NORTH (16.6 N) ONE ONE NINE POINT FIVE DEGREES EAST (119.5 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE WEST-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 10 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 30 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 120 NAUTICAL MILES. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 011800 UTC ONE SEVEN POINT EIGHT DEGREES NORTH (17.8 N) ONE ONE FIVE POINT NINE DEGREES EAST (115.9 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 40 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 021800 UTC ONE EIGHT POINT FOUR DEGREES NORTH (18.4 N) ONE ONE ONE POINT NINE DEGREES EAST (111.9 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 50 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 031800 UTC ONE EIGHT POINT THREE DEGREES NORTH (18.3 N) ONE ONE ZERO POINT ZERO DEGREES EAST (110.0 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 50 KNOTS. ** WTSS20 VHHH 311945 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT 311800 UTC, TROPICAL DEPRESSION NEAR LUZON WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 998 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 90 NAUTICAL MILES OF ONE SIX POINT SIX DEGREES NORTH (16.6 N) ONE ONE NINE POINT FIVE DEGREES EAST (119.5 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE WEST-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 10 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 30 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 120 NAUTICAL MILES. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 011800 UTC ONE SEVEN POINT EIGHT DEGREES NORTH (17.8 N) ONE ONE FIVE POINT NINE DEGREES EAST (115.9 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 40 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 021800 UTC ONE EIGHT POINT FOUR DEGREES NORTH (18.4 N) ONE ONE ONE POINT NINE DEGREES EAST (111.9 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 50 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 031800 UTC ONE EIGHT POINT THREE DEGREES NORTH (18.3 N) ONE ONE ZERO POINT ZERO DEGREES EAST (110.0 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 50 KNOTS. ** WTPZ22 KNHC 312031 *** TCMEP2 TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072006 2100 UTC MON JUL 31 2006 TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.2N 122.0W AT 31/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 11 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1009 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.2N 122.0W AT 31/2100Z AT 31/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.1N 121.4W FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 14.3N 123.7W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 14.5N 126.0W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 25SE 25SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 14.9N 128.3W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 15.4N 130.6W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 16.5N 135.0W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 50NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 04/1800Z 16.5N 140.0W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 05/1800Z 16.5N 145.0W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.2N 122.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 01/0300Z $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS/PASCH ** WTPZ42 KNHC 312032 *** TCDEP2 TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 1 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072006 200 PM PDT MON JUL 31 2006 SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 1411Z QUIKSCAT OVERPASS INDICATE THAT THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE...LOCATED ABOUT 830 NM SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA...HAS FORMED INTO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION. THE TROPICAL CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO REMAIN IN A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT OF RELATIVELY STABLE AIR AND MODERATE EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY SHEAR OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AND IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER COOLER SEA SURFACES TEMPERATURES IN 48 HOURS. THEREFORE...ONLY MODEST STRENGTHENING IS ANTICIPATED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WITH GRADUAL WEAKENING LIKELY THEREAFTER. IN FACT...THE GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE SYSTEM COULD DISSIPATE BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 280/11. MICROWAVE IMAGERY AND THE AFOREMENTIONED QUIKSCAT PASS SUGGEST THAT THE CIRCULATION IS A BIT TO THE SOUTH OF THE GEOSTATIONARY SATELLITE FIX ESTIMATES. ALL MODELS SUGGEST A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION WITHIN THE DEEP-LAYERED FLOW ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL ANTICYCLONE THAT IS FORECAST TO BUILD TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE. IN RESPONSE TO THE EXPECTED BUILDING OF THE RIDGE...THE NHC TRACK FORECAST SHOWS A SLIGHT INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED LATER IN THE PERIOD. ROBERTS/PASCH FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 31/2100Z 14.2N 122.0W 30 KT 12HR VT 01/0600Z 14.3N 123.7W 35 KT 24HR VT 01/1800Z 14.5N 126.0W 40 KT 36HR VT 02/0600Z 14.9N 128.3W 45 KT 48HR VT 02/1800Z 15.4N 130.6W 45 KT 72HR VT 03/1800Z 16.5N 135.0W 40 KT 96HR VT 04/1800Z 16.5N 140.0W 35 KT 120HR VT 05/1800Z 16.5N 145.0W 30 KT $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS/PASCH ** WTPN31 PGTW 312100 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 07W WARNING NR 004 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 311800Z --- NEAR 16.6N 121.1E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 08 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT REPEAT POSIT: 16.6N 121.1E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 010600Z --- 17.2N 118.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 12 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 011800Z --- 17.8N 116.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 020600Z --- 18.0N 114.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 09 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 021800Z --- 18.1N 112.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 031800Z --- 18.6N 111.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 05 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 041800Z --- 20.0N 110.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 051800Z --- 21.8N 108.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 312100Z POSITION NEAR 16.8N 120.6E. TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 07W, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 125 NM NORTH OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 311800Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 010300Z, 010900Z, 011500Z AND 012100Z.// ** WTPH RPLL 311800 *** TTT WARNING 14 AT 1800 31 JULY TROP DEPRESSION WAS ESTMD BASED ON RADAR SATELLITE AND SFC DATA AT 16.7N 119.0E FORECAST TO MOVE WEST AT 05MPS MODERATE TO ROUGH SEAS WITHIN 150KMS RADIUS FROM CENTER ESTMD CNTRL PRESSURE 1000 HECTOPASCALS MAXIMUM WINDS 15MPS NEAR CENTER FORECAST POSITIONS AT 011800 17.2N 115.6E AT 021800 18.7N. 115.5E ALL SHIPS WITHIN DEPRESSION AREA ARE REQUESTED TO SEND 3-HOURLY WEATHER REPORTS TO WEATHER MANILA PD= ** WTPH20 RPMM 311800 *** T T T WARNING 14 AT 1800 31 JULY TROPICAL DEPRESSION WAS ESTIMATED BASED ON SATELLITE AND SURFACE DATA AT ONE SIX POINT SEVEN NORTH ONE ONE NINE POINT ZERO EAST FORECAST TO MOVE WEST AT ZERO FIVE METERS PER SECOND MODERATE TO ROUGH SEAS WITHIN ONE FIVE ZERO KILOMETERS RADIUS FROM CENTER ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE ONE ZERO ZERO ZERO HECTOPASCALS MAXIMUM WINDS ONE FIVE METERS PER SECOND NEAR CENTER FORECAST POSITIONS AT 011800 ONE SEVEN POINT TWO NORTH ONE ONE FIVE POINT SIX AT 021800 ONE EIGHT POINT SEVEN NORTH ONE ONE ONE POINT FIVE EAST ALL SHIPS WITHIN DEPRESSION AREA ARE REQUESTED TO SEND THREE HOURLY WEATHER REPORTS TO WEATHER MANILA PD WEATHER MANILA= ** WTPN31 PHNC 312200 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 07E WARNING NR 001 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 311800Z --- NEAR 14.1N 121.4W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 280 DEGREES AT 11 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT REPEAT POSIT: 14.1N 121.4W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 010600Z --- 14.3N 123.7W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 11 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 011800Z --- 14.5N 126.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 11 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 020600Z --- 14.9N 128.3W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 11 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 021800Z --- 15.4N 130.6W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 11 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 031800Z --- 16.5N 135.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 12 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 041800Z --- 16.5N 140.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 12 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 051800Z --- 16.5N 145.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT --- REMARKS: 312200Z POSITION NEAR 14.2N 122.2W. AT 311800Z TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED 659 NM WSW OF SOCORRO ISLAND. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 311800Z IS 8 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 010400Z, 011000Z, 011600Z AND 012200Z.// ** WTSS20 VHHH 312245 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT 312100 UTC, TROPICAL DEPRESSION NEAR LUZON WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 998 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 90 NAUTICAL MILES OF ONE SIX POINT SIX DEGREES NORTH (16.6 N) ONE ONE NINE POINT ZERO DEGREES EAST (119.0 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE WEST-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 10 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 30 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 120 NAUTICAL MILES. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 012100 UTC ONE SEVEN POINT NINE DEGREES NORTH (17.9 N) ONE ONE FIVE POINT FOUR DEGREES EAST (115.4 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 40 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 022100 UTC ONE EIGHT POINT FOUR DEGREES NORTH (18.4 N) ONE ONE ONE POINT SEVEN DEGREES EAST (111.7 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 50 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 032100 UTC ONE EIGHT POINT THREE DEGREES NORTH (18.3 N) ONE ZERO NINE POINT EIGHT DEGREES EAST (109.8 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 50 KNOTS. ** WTSS20 VHHH 312245 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT 312100 UTC, TROPICAL DEPRESSION NEAR LUZON WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 998 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 90 NAUTICAL MILES OF ONE SIX POINT SIX DEGREES NORTH (16.6 N) ONE ONE NINE POINT ZERO DEGREES EAST (119.0 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE WEST-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 10 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 30 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 120 NAUTICAL MILES. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 012100 UTC ONE SEVEN POINT NINE DEGREES NORTH (17.9 N) ONE ONE FIVE POINT FOUR DEGREES EAST (115.4 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 40 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 022100 UTC ONE EIGHT POINT FOUR DEGREES NORTH (18.4 N) ONE ONE ONE POINT SEVEN DEGREES EAST (111.7 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 50 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 032100 UTC ONE EIGHT POINT THREE DEGREES NORTH (18.3 N) ONE ZERO NINE POINT EIGHT DEGREES EAST (109.8 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 50 KNOTS.