** WTSR20 WSSS 310600 *** NO STORM WARNING= ** WTPQ20 VHHH 311345 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT 311200 UTC, TROPICAL DEPRESSION OVER LUZON WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 998 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 90 NAUTICAL MILES OF ONE SIX POINT FIVE DEGREES NORTH (16.5 N) ONE TWO ONE POINT SIX DEGREES EAST (121.6 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE WEST-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 13 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 60 NAUTICAL MILES. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 011200 UTC ONE EIGHT POINT ONE DEGREES NORTH (18.1 N) ONE ONE SIX POINT FIVE DEGREES EAST (116.5 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 35 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 021200 UTC ONE EIGHT POINT FOUR DEGREES NORTH (18.4 N) ONE ONE TWO POINT ONE DEGREES EAST (112.1 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 45 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 031200 UTC ONE EIGHT POINT EIGHT DEGREES NORTH (18.8 N) ONE ONE ZERO POINT THREE DEGREES EAST (110.3 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 45 KNOTS. ** WTPN31 PGTW 311500 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ:TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 07W WARNING NR 003 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 311200Z --- NEAR 16.6N 122.1E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 300 DEGREES AT 06 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT REPEAT POSIT: 16.6N 122.1E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 010000Z --- 17.5N 120.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 11 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 011200Z --- 18.2N 118.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 11 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 020000Z --- 18.7N 115.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 12 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 021200Z --- 19.1N 113.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 031200Z --- 19.3N 110.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 05 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 041200Z --- 20.4N 109.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 051200Z --- 21.8N 108.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 311500Z POSITION NEAR 16.8N 121.6E. TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 07W, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 135 NM NORTH- NORTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 311200Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 312100Z, 010300Z, 010900Z AND 011500Z.// ** WTPH20 RPMM 311200 *** T T T WARNING 13 AT 1200 31 JULY TROPICAL DEPRESSION WAS ESTIMATED BASED ON RADAR ,SATELLITE AND SURFACE DATA AT ONE SEVEN POINT THREE NORTH ONE TWO ZERO POINT TWO EAST FORECAST TO MOVE WEST NORTHWEST AT ZERO FIVE METERS PER SECOND MODERATE TO ROUGH SEAS WITHIN ONE FIVE ZERO KILOMETERS RADIUS FROM CENTER ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE ONE ZERO ZERO ZERO HECTOPASCALS MAXIMUM WINDS ONE FIVE METERS PER SECOND NEAR CENTER FORECAST POSITIONS AT 011200 ONE NINE POINT FOUR NORTH ONE ONE SIX POINT FIVE EAST AT 021200 TWO TWO POINT FIVE EAST 021200 TWO TWO POINT ONE NORTH ONE ONE THREE POINT ONE EAST ALL SHIPS WITHIN DEPRESSION AREA ARE REQUESTED TO SEND THREE HOURLY WEATHER REPORTS TO WEATHER MANILA PD WEATHER MANILA= ** WTPH RPLL 311200 *** TTT WARNING 13 AT 1200 31 JULY TROP DEPRESSION WAS ESTMD BASED ON RADAR SATELLITE AND SFC DATA AT 17.3N 120.2E FORECASTTO MOVE WEST NORTHWEST AT 05MPS MODERATE TO ROUGH SEAS WITHIN 150KMS RADIUS FROM CENTER ESTMD CNTRL PRESSURE 1000 HECTO- PASCALS MAXIMUM WINDS 15MPS NEAR CENTER FORECAST POSITIONS AT 011200 19.4N 116.5E AT 021200 22.1N 113.1E ALL SHIPS WITHIN DEPRESSION AREA ARE REQUESTED TO SEND 3-HOURLY WEATHER REPORTS TO WEATHER MANILA PD= ** WTNT80 EGRR 311700 *** MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 31.07.2006 TROPICAL STORM DEVELOPED IN THE MODEL ANALYSIS AT POSITION : 13.9N 120.1W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 31.07.2006 13.9N 120.1W WEAK 00UTC 01.08.2006 13.9N 121.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 01.08.2006 13.9N 124.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 02.08.2006 13.9N 125.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 02.08.2006 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 311700 ** WTSS20 VHHH 311645 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT 311500 UTC, TROPICAL DEPRESSION NEAR LUZON WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 998 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 90 NAUTICAL MILES OF ONE SIX POINT SIX DEGREES NORTH (16.6 N) ONE TWO ZERO POINT SIX DEGREES EAST (120.6 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE WEST-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 12 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 30 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 120 NAUTICAL MILES. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 011500 UTC ONE EIGHT POINT TWO DEGREES NORTH (18.2 N) ONE ONE FIVE POINT NINE DEGREES EAST (115.9 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 40 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 021500 UTC ONE EIGHT POINT FOUR DEGREES NORTH (18.4 N) ONE ONE ONE POINT NINE DEGREES EAST (111.9 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 50 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 031500 UTC ONE EIGHT POINT NINE DEGREES NORTH (18.9 N) ONE ONE ZERO POINT ONE DEGREES EAST (110.1 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 50 KNOTS. ** WTSS20 VHHH 311645 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT 311500 UTC, TROPICAL DEPRESSION NEAR LUZON WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 998 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 90 NAUTICAL MILES OF ONE SIX POINT SIX DEGREES NORTH (16.6 N) ONE TWO ZERO POINT SIX DEGREES EAST (120.6 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE WEST-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 12 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 30 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 120 NAUTICAL MILES. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 011500 UTC ONE EIGHT POINT TWO DEGREES NORTH (18.2 N) ONE ONE FIVE POINT NINE DEGREES EAST (115.9 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 40 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 021500 UTC ONE EIGHT POINT FOUR DEGREES NORTH (18.4 N) ONE ONE ONE POINT NINE DEGREES EAST (111.9 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 50 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 031500 UTC ONE EIGHT POINT NINE DEGREES NORTH (18.9 N) ONE ONE ZERO POINT ONE DEGREES EAST (110.1 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 50 KNOTS.