** WTPN21 PGTW 300230 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT 300221Z JUL 06// RMKS/ 1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN A 210 NM RADIUS OF 14.4N 126.8E WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CY- CLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 292330Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 14.4N 126.9E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 03 KNOTS. 2. REMARKS: AN AREA OF CONVECTION NEAR 14.4N 126.9E, APPROXIMATE- LY 360 NM EAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES HAS PERSISTED OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. ANIMATED MULTI-SPECTRAL IMAGERY SHOW DEEP CONVECTION INCREASING IN THE VICINITY OF A BROAD BUT TIGHTENING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). MULTIPLE CIRCULATIONS MAY EXIST WITHIN THE BROAD LLCC BUT CONSOLIDATION INTO A WARNABLE SYSTEM IS EXPECT- ED. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR O- VER THE LLCC ASSOCIATED WITH NORTHEASTERLY WINDS ALOFT. A CIRC- ULAR FORMATION AREA IS BEING USED TO POOR MODEL PERFORMANCE THUS FAR WITH THE DISTURBANCE. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE 1004 MB. DUE TO INCREASING ORGANIZATION OF THE LLCC AND ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS GOOD. 3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 310230Z.// ** WTPH20 RPMM 300000 *** T T T GALE WARNING 07 AT 0000 30JULY TROPICAL DEPRSSION WAS ESTIMATED BASED ON LAND RADAR SATELLITE AND SURFACE DATA AT ONE FOUR POINT EIGHT NORTH ONE TWO FOUR POINT NINE EAST FORECAST TO MOVE WEST NORTHWEST AT ZERO TWO METERS PER SECOND MODERATE TO ROUGH SEAS WITHIN ONE FIVE ZER0 KILOMETERS RADIUS FROM CENTER ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE ONE ZERO ZERO ZERO HECTOPASCALS MAXIMUM WINDS ONE FIVE METERS PER SECOND NEAR CENTER FORECAST POSITIONS AT 310000 ONE FIVE POINT SIX NORTH ONE TWO THREE POINT EAST AT 010000 ONE SIX POINT FIVE NORTH ONE TWO TWO POINT ZERO EAST AND 020000 ONE SEVEN POINT NINE NORTH ONE TWO ONE POINT ONE EAST ALL SHIS WITHIN DEPRESSION AREA ARE REQUESTED TO SEND THREE HOURLY WEATHER REPORTS TO WEATHER MANILA=PD ** WTPH RPLL 300000 *** TTT GALE WARNING 07 AT 0000 30 JULY TROPICAL DEPRESSION WAS ESTIMATED BASED ON LAND RADAR, SATELLITE AND SURFACE DATA AT ONE FOUR POINT EIGHT NORTH ONE TWO FOUR POINT NINE EAST FORECAST TO MOVE WEST NORTHWEST AT ZERO TWO METERS PER SECOND MODERATE TO ROUGH SEAS WITHIN ONE FIVE ZERO KILOMETERS RADIUS FROM CENTER ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE ONE ZERO ZERO ZERO HECTOPASCALS MAXIMUM WINDS ONE FIVE METERS PER SECOND NEAR CENTER FORECAST POSITIONS AT 310000 ONE FIVE POINT SIX NORTH ONE TWO THREE POINT FIVE EAST AT 010000 ONE SIX POINT FIVE NORTH ONE TWO TWO POINT ZERO EAST AND AT 020000 ONE SEVEN POINT NINE NORTH ONE TWO ONE POINT ONE EAST ALL SHIPS WITHIN DEPRESSION AREA ARE REQUESTED TO SEND THREE HOURLY WEATHER REPORTS TO WEATHER MANILA PD= ** WTNT80 EGRR 300439 *** MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 30.07.2006 NO TROPICAL CYCLONES ANALYSED OR FORECAST TO DEVELOP IN THIS AREA IN THE NEXT THREE DAYS THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 300439