** WTPZ41 KNHC 272045 ***
TCDEP1
TROPICAL DEPRESSION EMILIA DISCUSSION NUMBER  26
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP062006
200 PM PDT THU JUL 27 2006
 
EMILIA REMAINS AS A SWIRL OF LOW/MID-LEVEL CLOUDS...ALTHOUGH A
LITTLE DEEP CONVECTION HAS RE-DEVELOPED JUST WEST OF THE CENTER. 
THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 25 KT BASED ON SATELLITE INTENSITY
ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND AFWA...AND SURFACE WINDS FROM A 1430Z SSM/I
OVERPASS.  SINCE EMILIA IS OVER 21C SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES...THE
CONVECTION WILL LIKELY BE SHORT LIVED.  THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO
WEAKEN TO A REMNANT LOW IN 12 HR OR LESS AND COMPLETELY DISSIPATE
IN LESS THAN 36 HR.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 295/11.  EMILIA IS BEING STEERED BY A
STRENGTHENING DEEP-LAYER RIDGE TO THE NORTH...WHICH SHOULD RESULT
IN A GRADUAL WESTWARD TURN BEFORE THE CYCLONE DISSIPATES. 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      27/2100Z 27.3N 119.2W    25 KT
 12HR VT     28/0600Z 27.7N 120.7W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 24HR VT     28/1800Z 28.0N 122.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 36HR VT     29/0600Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
 


** WTPZ21 KNHC 272046 ***
TCMEP1
TROPICAL DEPRESSION EMILIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  26
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP062006
2100 UTC THU JUL 27 2006
 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.3N 119.2W AT 27/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  25 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT  11 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1009 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  25 KT WITH GUSTS TO  35 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.3N 119.2W AT 27/2100Z
AT 27/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 27.2N 118.7W
 
FORECAST VALID 28/0600Z 27.7N 120.7W...REMNANT LOW
MAX WIND  20 KT...GUSTS  25 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 28/1800Z 28.0N 122.5W...REMNANT LOW
MAX WIND  20 KT...GUSTS  25 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z...DISSIPATED
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 27.3N 119.2W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 28/0300Z
 
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
 
 


** WTPN32 PHNC 272200 ***
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 06E (EMILIA) WARNING NR 026
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   271800Z --- NEAR 27.2N 118.7W
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 295 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
   REPEAT POSIT: 27.2N 118.7W
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   280600Z --- 27.7N 120.7W
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 025 KT
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   281800Z --- 28.0N 122.5W
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 025 KT
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
    ---
REMARKS:
272200Z POSITION NEAR 27.4N 119.4W.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 271800Z IS 7 FEET.
AT 271800Z, TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED 1215 NM NW OF
ACAPULCO. NEXT WARNINGS AT 280400Z, 281000Z AND 281600Z.
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//