** WTPZ31 KNHC 270241 *** TCPEP1 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM EMILIA ADVISORY NUMBER 23 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062006 800 PM PDT WED JUL 26 2006 ...EMILIA CONTINUES TO WEAKEN... ...TROPICAL STORM WARNING DISCONTINUED FOR BAJA CALIFORNIA... AT 8 PM PDT...0000 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS DISCONTINUED ALL WARNINGS FOR BAJA CALIFORNIA. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 800 PM PDT...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM EMILIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 25.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 115.8 WEST OR ABOUT 230 MILES...370 KM...WEST-NORTHWEST OF CABO SAN LAZARO MEXICO AND ABOUT 145 MILES...235 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF PUNTA EUGENIA MEXICO. EMILIA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH...20 KM/HR... AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. CONTINUED WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 90 MILES...150 KM FROM THE CENTER. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB...29.53 INCHES. REPEATING THE 800 PM PDT POSITION...25.8 N...115.8 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 200 AM PDT. $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS/STEWART ** WTPZ21 KNHC 270242 *** TCMEP1 TROPICAL STORM EMILIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 23 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062006 0300 UTC THU JUL 27 2006 AT 8 PM PDT...0000 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS DISCONTINUED ALL WARNINGS FOR BAJA CALIFORNIA. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.8N 115.8W AT 27/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 11 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT....... 80NE 80SE 40SW 60NW. 12 FT SEAS..100NE 100SE 80SW 80NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.8N 115.8W AT 27/0300Z AT 27/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 25.6N 115.3W FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z 26.6N 117.1W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 20SW 20NW. FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 27.2N 118.4W...REMNANT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 27.6N 119.6W...REMNANT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT. FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 25.8N 115.8W NEXT ADVISORY AT 27/0900Z $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS/STEWART ** WTPZ41 KNHC 270246 *** TCDEP1 TROPICAL STORM EMILIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 23 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062006 800 PM PDT WED JUL 26 2006 VISIBLE AND ENHANCED INFRARED IMAGERY DEPICT THAT EMILIA CONTINUES TO STRUGGLE WITH THE AFFECTS OF THE COOL SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND THE STABLE MARINE LAYER. THE REMAINING DEEP CONVECTION IS CONFINED TO A RELATIVELY SMALL AREA ABOUT 60 NM NORTHWEST OF THE CENTER. DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY NUMBERS RANGE FROM 35 TO 55 KT...WITH FINAL T-NUMBERS DOWN TO 30 KT. CONSEQUENTLY...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS DECREASED TO 45 KT...WHICH MAY BE GENEROUS. WEAKENING IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH THE TROPICAL CYCLONE BECOMING A NON-CONVECTIVE REMNANT LOW IN 24 HOURS AND DISSIPATING BY 48-72 HOURS. A 2209Z MICROWAVE TRMM OVERPASS AND AN 1822Z AMSU-B IMAGE SUGGEST THAT EMILIA HAS BEEN MOVING MORE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS...AROUND 300/11. EMILIA IS EXPECTED TO MOVE IN A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITHIN THE LOW-TO-MID STEERING FLOW OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE EXTENDING WESTWARD FROM THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A LITTLE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND CLOSELY FOLLOWS THE MODEL CONSENSUS. ALL TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS HAVE BEEN DISCONTINUED FOR BAJA CALIFORNIA. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 27/0300Z 25.8N 115.8W 45 KT 12HR VT 27/1200Z 26.6N 117.1W 35 KT 24HR VT 28/0000Z 27.2N 118.4W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW 36HR VT 28/1200Z 27.6N 119.6W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 48HR VT 29/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS/STEWART ** WTPN32 PHNC 270400 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL STORM 06E (EMILIA) WARNING NR 023 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 270000Z --- NEAR 25.6N 115.3W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 300 DEGREES AT 11 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 25.6N 115.3W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 271200Z --- 26.6N 117.1W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 280000Z --- 27.2N 118.4W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 281200Z --- 27.6N 119.6W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 025 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: 270400Z POSITION NEAR 25.9N 115.9W. AT 270000Z TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED 436 NM SSE OF SAN DIEGO. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 270000Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 271000Z, 271600Z, 272200Z AND 280400Z.// ** WTNT80 EGRR 270450 *** MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 27.07.2006 TROPICAL DEPRESSION DANIEL ANALYSED POSITION : 15.9N 144.4W ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP052006 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 27.07.2006 15.9N 144.4W WEAK 12UTC 27.07.2006 15.9N 146.6W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 28.07.2006 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH TROPICAL STORM EMILIA ANALYSED POSITION : 26.0N 115.1W ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP062006 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 27.07.2006 26.0N 115.1W WEAK 12UTC 27.07.2006 26.5N 117.4W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 28.07.2006 27.5N 119.4W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 28.07.2006 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 270450