** WTPA31 PHFO 261430 *** TCPCP1 BULLETIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION DANIEL ADVISORY NUMBER 39 NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP052006 500 AM HST WED JUL 26 2006 AT 500 AM HST...1500Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION DANIEL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 143.3 WEST OR ABOUT 815 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF HILO...HAWAII AND ABOUT 1020 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF HONOLULU...OAHU. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST NEAR 3 MPH AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO BECOME WEST NORTHWEST AND INCREASE SLIGHTLY DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. STRENGTH IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY DECREASE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1009 MB...29.80 INCHES. REPEATING THE 500 AM HST POSITION...16.1 N...143.3 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST-SOUTHWEST NEAR 3 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER AT 1100 AM HST. $$ FORECASTER POWELL ** WTPA21 PHFO 261430 *** TCMCP1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION DANIEL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 39 NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP052006 1500 UTC WED JUL 26 2006 TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.1N 143.3W AT 26/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OR 250 DEGREES AT 3 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1009 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.1N 143.3W AT 26/1500Z AT 26/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.1N 143.1W FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 16.2N 144.1W...DISSIPATING MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z 16.6N 146.0W...REMNANT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.1N 143.3W NEXT ADVISORY AT 26/2100Z $$ FORECASTER POWELL ** WTPA41 PHFO 261430 *** TCDCP1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION DANIEL DISCUSSION NUMBER 39 NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP052006 500 AM HST WED JUL 26 2006 A FRESH BATCH OF CB...THE FIRST IN OVER 24 HOURS...HAS BURST TO LIFE ALONG THE NORTHEASTERN FRINGE OF THE WEAKENING CIRCULATION OF DANIEL. THESE CB ARE OVER 100 NM FROM THE CENTER HOWEVER...KEEPING DATA T NUMBERS LOW IF THEY CAN BE DEFINED AT ALL. INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 30 KT BASED ON THE 1130 UTC PHFO CI NUMBER OF 2.0 AND THE ADMITTEDLY OLD 0500 UTC QUIKSCAT SCATTEROMETER PASS SHOWING A SMALL HANDFUL OF 30 KT WIND BARBS. DANIEL CONTINUES TO SPIN DOWN TO DISSIPATION...WITH THE NEW CB LIKELY THE RESULT OF NIGHTTIME CLOUD TOP COOLING AND LOCAL LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE. TRACK GUIDANCE REMAINS TIGHTLY PACKED AND CONTINUES TO INSIST THAT DANIEL WILL GET CAUGHT UP IN PREVAILING LOW LEVEL STEERING FLOW AND MOVE WEST NORTHWESTWARD. TAU THREE MOTION IS 270 DEGREES AT 4 KT BUT FOR MOST OF THE PAST 12 HOURS DANIEL HAS BEEN QUASI-STATIONARY. WITH THE 1029 MB HIGH NEAR 40N150W EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS...IT IS DIFFICULT TO FAULT THIS PERSISTENT TRACK GUIDANCE TREND. INDEED...SATELLITE LOOPS OVER THE PAST 2 HOURS SHOW THAT DANIEL MAY BE BEGINNING TO MOVE AGAIN. THE FORECAST TRACK IS ALMOST IDENTICAL TO THE PREVIOUS ONE...REPRESENTING A COMPROMISE BETWEEN GFS AND CONSENSUS. HOWEVER...FORECAST MOTION IS SLOWER AT ALL TAU STEPS TO ACCOUNT FOR DANIEL/S APPARENT SLUGGISHNESS. IT IS IMPORTANT TO NOTE THAT MOST TRACK GUIDANCE HAS SHIFTED SLIGHTLY TO THE LEFT SINCE THE LAST ROUND. THIS FORECAST CALLS FOR DANIEL TO DISSIPATE AT TAU 36 BEFORE REACHING 150W. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 26/1500Z 16.1N 143.3W 30 KT 12HR VT 27/0000Z 16.2N 144.1W 25 KT...DISSIPATING 24HR VT 27/1200Z 16.6N 146.0W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW 36HR VT 28/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER POWELL ** WTPZ31 KNHC 261438 *** TCPEP1 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM EMILIA ADVISORY NUMBER 21 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062006 800 AM PDT WED JUL 26 2006 AT 8 AM PDT...1500 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS DISCONTINUED A PORTION OF THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING ALONG THE WEST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SOUTH OF SANTA FE. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR THE WEST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA FROM SANTA FE TO PUNTA EUGENIA. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 800 AM PDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM EMILIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 24.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 113.5 WEST OR ABOUT 75 MILES...120 KM...WEST OF CABO SAN LAZARO MEXICO AND ABOUT 235 MILES...380 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF PUNTA EUGENIA MEXICO. EMILIA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH...20 KM/HR...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH THE CENTER MOVING PARALLEL TO THE WEST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 70 MPH...110 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES...185 KM FROM THE CENTER. PUERTO CORTES MEXICO RECENTLY REPORTED A WIND GUST OF 42 MPH...68 KM/HR. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 989 MB...29.21 INCHES. EMILIA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF BAJA CALIFORNIA. ISOLATED MAXIMUM STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS IN EXCESS OF 5 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE. REPEATING THE 800 AM PDT POSITION...24.7 N...113.5 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...989 MB. AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 1100 AM PDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 200 PM PDT. $$ FORECASTER MAINELLI/BEVEN ** WTPZ21 KNHC 261439 *** TCMEP1 TROPICAL STORM EMILIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 21 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062006 1500 UTC WED JUL 26 2006 AT 8 AM PDT...1500 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS DISCONTINUED A PORTION OF THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING ALONG THE WEST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SOUTH OF SANTA FE. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR THE WEST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA FROM SANTA FE TO PUNTA EUGENIA. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.7N 113.5W AT 26/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 325 DEGREES AT 11 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 989 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT. 50 KT....... 50NE 40SE 25SW 40NW. 34 KT.......100NE 100SE 50SW 75NW. 12 FT SEAS..200NE 200SE 150SW 150NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.7N 113.5W AT 26/1500Z AT 26/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 24.4N 113.1W FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 25.7N 114.6W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 75NE 75SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z 26.6N 116.3W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 0SW 25NW. FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 27.1N 117.6W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 27.5N 118.6W...REMNANT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 28.0N 120.0W...REMNANT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 30/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 24.7N 113.5W NEXT ADVISORY AT 26/2100Z $$ FORECASTER MAINELLI/BEVEN ** WTPZ41 KNHC 261440 *** TCDEP1 TROPICAL STORM EMILIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 21 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062006 800 AM PDT WED JUL 26 2006 CONVENTIONAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DISPLAYS A WELL DEFINED BANDING FEATURE WITH CLOUD TOPS COLDER THAN -70C...WHICH IS SUPPORTED BY 36 GHZ DATA FROM THE AMSR-E INSTRUMENT AT 0939 UTC. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS KEPT JUST BELOW HURRICANE STRENGTH AT 60 KT...WHICH IS A BLEND OF THE CI AND DATA-T NUMBERS FROM ALL THREE AGENCIES. DESPITE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES BELOW 24C...EMILIA IS HOLDING ITS OWN QUITE WELL. HOWEVER...THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO MOVE OVER COOLER WATERS AND ENCOUNTER SOME MODERATE NORTHEASTERLY OR EASTERLY SHEAR FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WHICH SHOULD FINALLY WEAKEN EMILIA TO A REMNANT LOW IN 48 HOURS. THE INITIAL MOTION IS 325/11. THE STEERING MECHANISM OF EMILIA HAS BEEN A CHALLENGE TO IDENTIFY...AND MOST OF THE TRACK GUIDANCE HAS SHOWN A LEFT BIAS. WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT EMILIA IS SANDWICHED BETWEEN AN ANTICYCLONE TO THE NORTH AND A WEAK TROUGH TO THE WEST. TRACK GUIDANCE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A NORTHWEST MOTION IN THE IMMEDIATE SHORT-TERM WITH A MORE WESTERLY TRACK AFTER 24 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK. HOWEVER...A POSSIBILITY EXISTS THAT EMILIA WILL JUST PARALLEL THE BAJA COAST THROUGH DISSIPATION. A 1200 UTC SHIP...MQYA3...REPORTED AT NORTHWEST WIND AT 30 KT AROUND 50 N MI WEST-NORTHWEST OF THE CENTER. CONSEQUENTLY...THE WIND RADII WERE REDUCED ACROSS THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE. LAND STATIONS IN PORTIONS OF THE WARNED AREA ARE CURRENTLY REPORTING TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS. THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS DISCONTINUED A PORTION OF THE WARNED AREA FROM SANTA FE SOUTHWARD. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 26/1500Z 24.7N 113.5W 60 KT 12HR VT 27/0000Z 25.7N 114.6W 50 KT 24HR VT 27/1200Z 26.6N 116.3W 40 KT 36HR VT 28/0000Z 27.1N 117.6W 30 KT 48HR VT 28/1200Z 27.5N 118.6W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW 72HR VT 29/1200Z 28.0N 120.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 96HR VT 30/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER MAINELLI/BEVEN ** WTNT80 EGRR 261726 *** MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 26.07.2006 TROPICAL STORM EMILIA ANALYSED POSITION : 24.3N 112.3W ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP062006 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 26.07.2006 24.3N 112.3W MODERATE 00UTC 27.07.2006 25.4N 113.9W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 27.07.2006 26.4N 114.9W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 28.07.2006 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH TROPICAL DEPRESSION DANIEL ANALYSED POSITION : 15.9N 143.2W ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP052006 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 26.07.2006 15.9N 143.2W WEAK 00UTC 27.07.2006 15.9N 144.2W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 27.07.2006 16.4N 145.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 28.07.2006 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 261726 ** WTPZ31 KNHC 261737 *** TCPEP1 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM EMILIA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 21A NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062006 1100 AM PDT WED JUL 26 2006 ...EMILIA CHURNING OFF THE WEST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE WEST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA FROM SANTA FE TO PUNTA EUGENIA. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 1100 AM PDT...1800Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM EMILIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 25.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 113.8 WEST OR ABOUT 105 MILES...170 KM...WEST OF CABO SAN LAZARO MEXICO AND ABOUT 200 MILES...325 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF PUNTA EUGENIA MEXICO. EMILIA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH...20 KM/HR...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THIS TRACK...EMILIA WILL CONTINUE TO PARALLEL THE WEST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 70 MPH...110 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES...185 KM FROM THE CENTER. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 989 MB...29.21 INCHES. EMILIA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF BAJA CALIFORNIA. ISOLATED MAXIMUM STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS IN EXCESS OF 5 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE. REPEATING THE 1100 AM PDT POSITION...25.2 N...113.8 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...989 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 200 PM PDT. $$ FORECASTER MAINELLI/BEVEN