** WTPQ20 RJTD 260600 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TD DOWNGRADED FROM TS 0605 KAEMI (0605) ANALYSIS PSTN 260600UTC 25N 115E MOVE WNW 10KT PRES 996HPA = ** WTKO20 RKSL 260600 *** KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 15 NAME TD 0605 KAEMI ANALYSIS POSITION 260600UTC 25.0N 115.0E MOVEMENT WNW 10KT PRES 996HPA KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION. ** WTPA21 PHFO 260830 *** TCMCP1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION DANIEL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 38 NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP052006 0900 UTC WED JUL 26 2006 TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.3N 142.9W AT 26/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 2 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.3N 142.9W AT 26/0900Z AT 26/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.3N 142.8W FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z 16.4N 143.2W...DISSIPATING MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 27/0600Z 16.7N 145.3W...DISSIPATING MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 27/1800Z 17.2N 147.4W...REMNANT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT. FORECAST VALID 28/0600Z 17.8N 150.0W...DISSIPATED MAX WIND 15 KT...GUSTS 20 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.3N 142.9W NEXT ADVISORY AT 26/1500Z $$ FORECASTER POWELL ** WTPA31 PHFO 260830 *** TCPCP1 BULLETIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION DANIEL ADVISORY NUMBER 38 NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP052006 1100 PM HST TUE JUL 25 2006 AT 1100 PM HST...0900Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION DANIEL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 142.9 WEST OR ABOUT 835 MILES...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF HILO...HAWAII AND ABOUT 1040 MILES...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF HONOLULU...OAHU. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 2 MPH AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO BECOME WEST NORTHWEST AND INCREASE SLIGHTLY OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1008 MB...29.77 INCHES. REPEATING THE 1100 PM HST POSITION...16.3 N...142.9 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST NEAR 2 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER AT 500 AM HST. $$ FORECASTER POWELL ** WTPA41 PHFO 260830 *** TCDCP1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION DANIEL DISCUSSION NUMBER 38 NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP052006 1100 PM HST TUE JUL 25 2006 AN 0500 UTC QUIKSCAT SCATTEROMETER PASS SHOWS MANY RAIN FLAGGED 25 KT WIND BARBS...AND PRECISELY FOUR 30 KT ONES...AROUND THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF DANIEL/S WEAKENING CIRCULATION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 30 KT BASED ON THIS AND THE PHFO CI NUMBER OF 2.0. DANIEL IS CLEARLY ON ITS LAST LEGS...WITH WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWING AN AREA OF SUBSIDENCE APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHEAST. THERE HAS BEEN NO DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH DANIEL FOR AT LEAST 24 HOURS AND THE LLCC WILL LIKELY BE TRACKED OVERNIGHT THROUGH THE USE OF MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY...A TOOL MOSTLY USED FOR FOG AND LOW STRATUS DETECTION. IN GENERAL...MODELS DON/T LIKE NEARLY STATIONARY SYSTEMS AND TEND TO WANT TO MOVE THEM IN SPITE OF REPEATED NEARLY STATIONARY INITIALIZATIONS. THIS SEEMS TO BE THE CASE WITH DANIEL. THE TAU THREE MOTION IS 270 DEGREES AT 2 KT...BUT DANIEL HAS BEEN ALMOST STATIONARY FOR THE PAST 6 HOURS IN SPITE OF A STRENGTHENING 1029 MB HIGH NEAR 40N150W. MODEL GUIDANCE IS COUNTING ON LOW LEVEL STEERING TO PUSH DANIEL TOWARDS THE WEST NORTHWEST AND THE CURRENT FORECAST GRUDGINGLY AGREES. HOWEVER...WE KEEP MOVEMENT AT 10 KT OR LESS THROUGH 36 HOURS. THE REMNANT LOW ASSOCIATED WITH DANIEL IS FORECAST TO SPEED UP TO 13 KT AS IT FINALLY DISSIPATES AT 48 HOURS. WHILE FOLLOWING A COMPROMISE TRACK BETWEEN GFS AND CONSENSUS GUIDANCE...THIS MOTION IS SLOWER THAN ALL TRACK GUIDANCE MAINLY BECAUSE POTENTIAL FORECAST POSITIONS WEST OF 154W AT 48 HOURS SEEM UNREALISTIC GIVEN RECENT PAST DANIEL MOTION. THERE WILL STILL BE A SHALLOW AREA OF VERY MOIST AIR ASSOCIATED WITH DANIEL FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS BUT MODELS SHOW NO STRONG DYNAMICS TO LIFT THE MOISTURE. THAT WILL LIMIT THE THREAT OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ALONG DANIEL/S TRACK AND SEVERELY LIMIT THIS SYSTEM/S POTENTIAL TO REVIVE AFTER REACHING WARMER WATERS LEE OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 26/0900Z 16.3N 142.9W 30 KT 12HR VT 26/1800Z 16.4N 143.2W 25 KT...DISSIPATING 24HR VT 27/0600Z 16.7N 145.3W 25 KT...DISSIPATING 36HR VT 27/1800Z 17.2N 147.4W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 48HR VT 28/0600Z 17.8N 150.0W 15 KT...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER POWELL ** WTPZ31 KNHC 260845 *** TCPEP1 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM EMILIA ADVISORY NUMBER 20 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062006 200 AM PDT WED JUL 26 2006 ...EMILIA PARALLELING BAJA CALIFORNIA...TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS ARE EXTENDED NORTHWARD... AT 2 AM PDT...0900 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS EXTENDED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING ALONG THE WEST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA TO PUNTA EUGENIA AND HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING EAST OF CABO SAN LUCAS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR THE WEST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA FROM CABO SAN LUCAS TO PUNTA EUGENIA. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 200 AM PDT...0900Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM EMILIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 24.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 112.5 WEST OR ABOUT 310 MILES...495 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF PUNTA EUGENIA MEXICO AND ABOUT 55 MILES...90 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF CABO SAN LAZARO MEXICO. EMILIA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/HR...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THIS TRACK...EMILIA WILL CONTINUE TO PARALLEL THE WEST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 70 MPH...110 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES...185 KM FROM THE CENTER. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 989 MB...29.21 INCHES. EMILIA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF BAJA CALIFORNIA WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS. REPEATING THE 200 AM PDT POSITION...24.0 N...112.5 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...989 MB. AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 500 AM PDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 800 AM PDT. $$ FORECASTER AVILA/LANDSEA ** WTPZ41 KNHC 260845 *** TCDEP1 TROPICAL STORM EMILIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 20 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062006 200 AM PDT WED JUL 26 2006 SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT EMILIA HAS MAINTAINED ITS NEAR-HURRICANE INTENSITY WITH A SMALL CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST. A TRMM MICROWAVE IMAGE ALSO SUGGESTS THAT THE SYSTEM HAS A PARTIAL EYEWALL. A BLEND OF CI AND DATA-T NUMBERS FROM TAFB...SAB... AFWA...AND CIMSS' ADT GIVE A CURRENT INTENSITY OF 60 KT WHICH IS UTILIZED HERE. EMILIA'S MOTION IS BEGINNING TO TURN MORE TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AND THE BEST ESTIMATE OF THE INITIAL MOTION IS 325/10. EMILIA IS LIKELY TO BEGIN ITS DECAY SHORTLY AS IT IS CURRENTLY OVER 25C SSTS AND WILL MOVE OVER INCREASINGLY COOLER WATERS. ADDITIONALLY... MODERATE NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR AND A STABLE AIRMASS SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO EMILIA'S WEAKENING. THE INTENSITY FORECAST CLOSELY FOLLOWS THE STATISTICAL SHIPS MODEL GUIDANCE. CURRENTLY...EMILIA'S NORTHWESTWARD TRACK IS BEING CAUSED BY THE COMBINATION OF A DEEP-LAYER RIDGE TO ITS NORTH AND A WEAK LOW TO MID-LEVEL CYCLONIC GYRE TO ITS SOUTHWEST. AS EMILIA WEAKENS...IT SHOULD BE STEERED MORE TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST BY THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW. THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS TIGHTLY CLUSTERED AND THE FORECAST IS JUST TO THE RIGHT OF THE CONSENSUS. EMILIA WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO PARALLEL THE WEST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS COULD REACH THE COAST. THEREFORE...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN EXTENDED NORTHWARD. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 26/0900Z 24.0N 112.5W 60 KT 12HR VT 26/1800Z 25.2N 113.5W 50 KT 24HR VT 27/0600Z 26.3N 115.0W 40 KT 36HR VT 27/1800Z 27.0N 116.7W 30 KT 48HR VT 28/0600Z 27.5N 118.0W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW 72HR VT 29/0600Z 28.0N 119.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 96HR VT 30/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER AVILA/LANDSEA ** WTPZ21 KNHC 260845 *** TCMEP1 TROPICAL STORM EMILIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 20 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062006 0900 UTC WED JUL 26 2006 AT 2 AM PDT...0900 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS EXTENDED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING ALONG THE WEST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA TO PUNTA EUGENIA AND HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING EAST OF CABO SAN LUCAS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR THE WEST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA FROM CABO SAN LUCAS TO PUNTA EUGENIA. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.0N 112.5W AT 26/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 325 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 989 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT. 50 KT....... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT.......100NE 100SE 75SW 100NW. 12 FT SEAS..200NE 250SE 150SW 150NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.0N 112.5W AT 26/0900Z AT 26/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 23.6N 112.2W FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z 25.2N 113.5W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 25NE 25SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 80NE 80SE 60SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 27/0600Z 26.3N 115.0W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 0SW 25NW. FORECAST VALID 27/1800Z 27.0N 116.7W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 28/0600Z 27.5N 118.0W...REMNANT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z 28.0N 119.5W...REMNANT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 24.0N 112.5W NEXT ADVISORY AT 26/1500Z $$ FORECASTER AVILA/LANDSEA ** WTPA21 PHFO 260906 CCA *** TCMCP1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION DANIEL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 38 NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP052006 0906 UTC WED JUL 26 2006 TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.3N 142.9W AT 26/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 2 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.3N 142.9W AT 26/0900Z AT 26/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.3N 142.8W FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z 16.4N 143.2W...DISSIPATING MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 27/0600Z 16.7N 145.3W...DISSIPATING MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 27/1800Z 17.2N 147.4W...REMNANT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT. FORECAST VALID 28/0600Z 17.8N 150.0W...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.3N 142.9W NEXT ADVISORY AT 26/1500Z $$ FORECASTER POWELL ** WTPZ31 KNHC 261138 *** TCPEP1 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM EMILIA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 20A NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062006 500 AM PDT WED JUL 26 2006 ...EMILIA PARALLELING BAJA CALIFORNIA...TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS REPORTED ALONG THE COAST... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE WEST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA FROM CABO SAN LUCAS TO PUNTA EUGENIA. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 500 AM PDT...1200Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM EMILIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 24.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 112.9 WEST OR ABOUT 75 MILES...120 KM...SOUTHWEST OF CABO SAN LAZARO MEXICO. THIS IS ALSO ABOUT 290 MILES...470 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF PUNTA EUGENIA MEXICO. EMILIA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/HR...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THIS TRACK...EMILIA WILL CONTINUE TO PARALLEL THE WEST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 70 MPH...110 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES...185 KM FROM THE CENTER. A FEW HOURS AGO...PUERTO CORTES MEXICO REPORTED SUSTAINED WINDS OF 43 MPH...70 KM/HR...WITH A GUST TO 55 MPH...89 KM/HR. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 989 MB...29.21 INCHES. EMILIA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF BAJA CALIFORNIA WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS. REPEATING THE 500 AM PDT POSITION...24.1 N...112.9 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...989 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 800 AM PDT. $$ FORECASTER MAINELLI/BEVEN