** WTPQ20 RJTD 260000 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TS 0605 KAEMI (0605) ANALYSIS PSTN 260000UTC 24.8N 116.0E FAIR MOVE NW 06KT PRES 992HPA MXWD 040KT 30KT 200NM SOUTHEAST 130NM NORTHWEST FORECAST 24HF 270000UTC 26.2N 112.5E 80NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION = ** WTJP21 RJTD 260000 *** WARNING 260000. WARNING VALID 270000. WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS. GALE WARNING. TROPICAL STORM 0605 KAEMI (0605) 992 HPA AT 24.8N 116.0E SOUTH CHINA MOVING NORTHWEST 06 KNOTS. POSITION FAIR. MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 200 MILES SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 130 MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION FOR 261200UTC AT 25.5N 114.3E WITH 60 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 996 HPA. BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION. FORECAST POSITION FOR 270000UTC AT 26.2N 112.5E WITH 80 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 998 HPA. BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 260000 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TS 0605 KAEMI (0605) ANALYSIS PSTN 260000UTC 24.8N 116.0E FAIR MOVE NW 06KT PRES 992HPA MXWD 040KT 30KT 200NM SOUTHEAST 130NM NORTHWEST FORECAST 24HF 270000UTC 26.2N 112.5E 80NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION = ** WTPQ30 RJTD 260000 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING REASONING NO.16 FOR TS 0605 KAEMI (0605) 1.GENERAL COMMENTS REASONING OF PROGNOSIS THIS TIME IS SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS ONE. POSITION FORECAST IS MAINLY BASED ON NWP AND PERSISTENCY. 2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION NOTHING PARTICULAR TO EXPLAIN. 3.MOTION FORECAST POSITION ACCURACY AT 260000 UTC IS FAIR. TS WILL MOVE AT THE SAME SPEED FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS. TS WILL MOVE WEST-NORTHWEST FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS. 4.INTENSITY FORECAST TS WILL BE GRADED DOWN TO TD WITHIN 12 HOURS. TS WILL WEAKEN BECAUSE CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURE NEAR CYCLONE CENTER HAS BECOME WARMER= ** WTPA41 PHFO 260232 *** TCDCP1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION DANIEL DISCUSSION NUMBER 37 NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP052006 500 PM HST TUE JUL 25 2006 DANIEL HAS CHANGED LITTLE IN APPEARANCE ON VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER REMAINS EXPOSED AND WELL DEFINED. THE 0000 UTC FIXES FROM ALL AGENCIES WERE ALL VERY CLOSE. DANIEL HAS MOVED WEST AT ABOUT 3 KT OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. DANIEL REMAINS RATHER WEAK. INFRARED IMAGERY SHOWS NO ACTIVE CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER MAKING IT IMPOSSIBLE TO DETERMINE A DATA T-NUMBER USING THE DVORAK TECHNIQUE. FIXES AT 0000 UTC RANGED FROM 2.0 TO 3.0. WITH NO DEEP CONVECTION AND RELATIVELY DRY AIR SURROUNDING THE STORM...DANIEL SHOULD CONTINUE TO WEAKEN. SINCE DANIEL WILL BE A SHALLOW SYSTEM FROM NOW ON...IT WILL BE INCREASINGLY STEERED BY THE LOWER LEVEL FLOW. AN UNUSUALLY STRONG 1032 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 40N 148W IS FORECAST TO MOVE WEST AND STRENGTHEN A BIT MORE. DANIEL SHOULD GET PICKED UP BY THE LOW LEVEL EAST SOUTHEAST FLOW AND GRADUALLY ACCELERATE TOWARDS THE WEST NORTHWEST. THE MODELS ALL SHOW DANIEL FOLLOWING A WEST NORTHWEST TRACK. FOR OUR FORECAST TRACK WE HAVE COMPROMISED BETWEEN THE GFS...WHICH HAS BEEN PERFORMING WELL OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS...AND CONSENSUS...WITH NO CHANGE FROM OUR PREVIOUS TRACK. DANIEL IS CURRENTLY OVER 25 DEGREE CELSIUS SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES...AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE OVER 26 DEGREE CELSIUS SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES NEAR THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS. THE SHIPS MODEL SHOWS DANIEL RE-INTENSIFYING OVER THE WARMER WATER AT DAYS 4 AND 5...BUT WITH NO DEEP CONVECTION REMAINING...RE-INTENSIFICATION IS NOT LIKELY. DANIEL IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE WEAKENING OVER THE NEXT 5 DAYS. ALTHOUGH THE CIRCULATION WILL BE WEAK...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN DANIEL AND THE STRONG HIGH TO THE NORTH WILL KEEP THE WINDS ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE SYSTEM A BIT STRONGER THAN WOULD OTHERWISE BE EXPECTED. THERE WILL STILL BE A SHALLOW AREA OF VERY MOIST AIR ASSOCIATED WITH DANIEL FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS BUT THE MODELS SHOW NO STRONG DYNAMICS TO LIFT THE MOISTURE. THAT WILL LIMIT THE THREAT OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ALONG DANIEL/S TRACK. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 26/0300Z 16.2N 143.1W 30 KT 12HR VT 26/1200Z 16.3N 143.8W 30 KT 24HR VT 27/0000Z 16.7N 145.3W 25 KT 36HR VT 27/1200Z 17.1N 147.6W 25 KT 48HR VT 28/0000Z 17.7N 150.5W 25 KT...DISSIPATING 72HR VT 29/0000Z 19.1N 156.4W 25 KT...DISSIPATING 96HR VT 30/0000Z 20.8N 162.6W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW 120HR VT 31/0000Z 22.0N 169.0W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW $$ FORECASTER KODAMA/DONALDSON ** WTPA21 PHFO 260233 *** TCMCP1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION DANIEL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 37 NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP052006 0300 UTC WED JUL 26 2006 TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.2N 143.1W AT 26/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 4 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.2N 143.1W AT 26/0300Z AT 26/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.2N 142.9W FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 16.3N 143.8W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 16.7N 145.3W MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z 17.1N 147.6W MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 17.7N 150.5W...DISSIPATING MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 19.1N 156.4W...DISSIPATING MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 30/0000Z 20.8N 162.6W...REMNANT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 31/0000Z 22.0N 169.0W...REMNANT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.2N 143.1W NEXT ADVISORY AT 26/0900Z $$ FORECASTER KODAMA/DONALDSON ** WTPA31 PHFO 260234 *** TCPCP1 BULLETIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION DANIEL ADVISORY NUMBER 37 NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP052006 500 PM HST TUE JUL 25 2006 AT 500 PM HST...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION DANIEL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 143.1 WEST OR ABOUT 825 MILES...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF HILO...HAWAII AND ABOUT 1030 MILES...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF HONOLULU...OAHU. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 5 MPH...ACCELERATING TO 12 MPH OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. THE DEPRESSION WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB...29.71 INCHES. REPEATING THE 500 PM HST POSITION...16.2 N...143.1 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST NEAR 5 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER AT 1100 PM HST. $$ FORECASTER KODAMA/DONALDSON ** WTPZ31 KNHC 260253 *** TCPEP1 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM EMILIA ADVISORY NUMBER 19 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062006 800 PM PDT TUE JUL 25 2006 ...EMILIA JUST BELOW HURRICANE STRENGTH AS IT EDGES CLOSER TO SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA FROM BUENAVISTA TO BAHIA MAGDALENA. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 800 PM PDT...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM EMILIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 111.0 WEST OR ABOUT 70 MILES...115 KM...WEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA AND ABOUT 155 MILES...250 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF CABO SAN LAZARO MEXICO. EMILIA IS MOVING BETWEEN NORTH AND NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/HR. A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. WHILE THIS MOTION SHOULD KEEP THE CENTER OF EMILIA OFFSHORE...THE STORM WILL COME CLOSE ENOUGH TO SPREAD TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN AND WESTERN BAJA CALIFORNIA. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 70 MPH...110 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. EMILIA IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN IN 12 TO 18 HOURS AFTER IT MOVES OVER COOLER WATER. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES...220 KM FROM THE CENTER. RECENT REPORTS INDICATE TEN-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS OF 43 MPH...69 KM/HR...HAVE BEEN OCCURRING AT CABO SAN LUCAS ON THE EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN TIP OF THE BAJA PENINSULA. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 989 MB...29.21 INCHES. EMILIA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF BAJA CALIFORNIA WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS. OUTER BANDS ARE ALREADY AFFECTING SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF BAJA CALIFORNIA. REPEATING THE 800 PM PDT POSITION...22.9 N...111.0 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...989 MB. AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 1100 PM PDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 200 AM PDT. $$ FORECASTER STEWART ** WTPZ21 KNHC 260253 *** TCMEP1 TROPICAL STORM EMILIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 19 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062006 0300 UTC WED JUL 26 2006 A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA FROM BUENAVISTA TO BAHIA MAGDALENA. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.9N 111.0W AT 26/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 345 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 989 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT. 50 KT....... 45NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT.......120NE 100SE 75SW 90NW. 12 FT SEAS..240NE 300SE 150SW 150NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.9N 111.0W AT 26/0300Z AT 26/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.5N 111.5W FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 24.3N 112.7W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 35NE 25SE 25SW 25NW. 34 KT...100NE 75SE 60SW 75NW. FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 25.7N 114.0W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 75NE 60SE 45SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z 26.5N 115.2W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 45SE 30SW 45NW. FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 27.1N 116.5W...REMNANT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 27.6N 118.2W...REMNANT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 30/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.9N 111.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 26/0900Z $$ FORECASTER STEWART ** WTPZ41 KNHC 260254 *** TCDEP1 TROPICAL STORM EMILIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 19 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062006 800 PM PDT TUE JUL 25 2006 LATE AFTERNOON VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY HAS BEEN INDICATING INTERMITTENT APPEARANCES OF A BANDING EYE FEATURE. CONVECTIVE BANDING HAS INCREASED AND UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW HAS IMPROVED. THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN INCREASED TO 60 KT BASED ON A BLEND OF DATA T-NUMBERS AND CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T4.0/65 AND T3.5/55 KT FROM TAFB...SAB...AND AFWA...AND ALSO A 25/2035Z UW-CIMSS AMSU ESTIMATE OF 75 KT AND 975 MB. THE SHORT TERM MOTION OF EMILIA HAS BEEN 355/12. HOWEVER...TRENDING THROUGH ALL THE WIGGLES AND WOBBLES OVER THE PAST 18 HOURS YIELDS A SMOOTHER MOTION OF 345/10 KT...WHICH HAS BEEN USED FOR THIS ADVISORY. UNFORTUNATELY...EVEN THAT MOTION...IF CONTINUED FOR THE NEXT 9 HOURS...WOULD BRING THE CENTER OF EMILIA VERY CLOSE TO CABO SAN LAZARO MEXICO. HOWEVER...WITH AN OFFSHORE WIND FLOW EXPECTED... THE CURRENT TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA EXTENDING NORTHWARD TO BAHIA MAGDALENA SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT. THERE ARE NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK OR REASONING. EMILIA IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN WEAKENING SIGNIFICANTLY BY 12-18 HOURS...AND THEN BE STEERED MORE WESTWARD BY THE LOW- TO MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE LOCATED TO THE NORTH OF THE CYCLONE OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK HAS BEEN SHIFTED NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK TO ACCOUNT FOR THE MORE NORTHWARD INITIAL POSITION... AND IS IN THE MIDDLE OF THE TIGHTLY PACKED NHC MODEL GUIDANCE SUITE. EMILIA HAS PERHAPS ANOTHER 6-9 HOURS OF POSSIBLE STRENGTHENING AND IT COULD REACH MINIMAL HURRICANE STRENGTH DURING THAT TIME WHILE IT REMAINS OVER RELATIVELY WARM WATER. HOWEVER...BY 12 HOURS EMILIA WILL BE MOVING OVER SUB-24C SSTS AND SHOULD BEGIN TO SLOWLY WEAKEN ...WITH MORE RAPID WEAKENING EXPECTED BY THE 24-HOUR FORECAST PERIOD. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND THE SHIPS INTENSITY MODEL...WHICH SHOWS EXPECTED DISSIPATION OF EMILIA BY 60 HOURS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 26/0300Z 22.9N 111.0W 60 KT 12HR VT 26/1200Z 24.3N 112.7W 55 KT 24HR VT 27/0000Z 25.7N 114.0W 45 KT 36HR VT 27/1200Z 26.5N 115.2W 35 KT 48HR VT 28/0000Z 27.1N 116.5W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW 72HR VT 29/0000Z 27.6N 118.2W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 96HR VT 30/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER STEWART ** WTPZ31 KNHC 260303 *** TCPEP1 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM EMILIA ADVISORY NUMBER 19...CORRECTED NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062006 800 PM PDT TUE JUL 25 2006 CORRECTED LEAD STATEMENT TO READ BAJA CALIFORNIA ...EMILIA JUST BELOW HURRICANE STRENGTH AS IT EDGES CLOSER TO SOUTHWESTERN BAJA CALIFORNIA... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA FROM BUENAVISTA TO BAHIA MAGDALENA. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 800 PM PDT...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM EMILIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 111.0 WEST OR ABOUT 70 MILES...115 KM...WEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA AND ABOUT 155 MILES...250 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF CABO SAN LAZARO MEXICO. EMILIA IS MOVING BETWEEN NORTH AND NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/HR. A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. WHILE THIS MOTION SHOULD KEEP THE CENTER OF EMILIA OFFSHORE...THE STORM WILL COME CLOSE ENOUGH TO SPREAD TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN AND WESTERN BAJA CALIFORNIA. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 70 MPH...110 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. EMILIA IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN IN 12 TO 18 HOURS AFTER IT MOVES OVER COOLER WATER. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES...220 KM FROM THE CENTER. RECENT REPORTS INDICATE TEN-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS OF 43 MPH...69 KM/HR...HAVE BEEN OCCURRING AT CABO SAN LUCAS ON THE EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN TIP OF THE BAJA PENINSULA. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 989 MB...29.21 INCHES. EMILIA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF BAJA CALIFORNIA WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS. OUTER BANDS ARE ALREADY AFFECTING SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF BAJA CALIFORNIA. REPEATING THE 800 PM PDT POSITION...22.9 N...111.0 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...989 MB. AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 1100 PM PDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 200 AM PDT. $$ FORECASTER STEWART ** WTPQ20 RJTD 260300 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TS 0605 KAEMI (0605) ANALYSIS PSTN 260300UTC 25.2N 115.4E FAIR MOVE NW 08KT PRES 994HPA MXWD 035KT 30KT 200NM SOUTHEAST 130NM NORTHWEST FORECAST 24HF 270300UTC 26.3N 112.0E 80NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION = ** WTPZ31 KNHC 260534 *** TCPEP1 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM EMILIA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 19A NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062006 1100 PM PDT TUE JUL 25 2006 ...EMILIA IS SKIRTING THE COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN BAJA CALIFORNIA... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA FROM BUENAVISTA TO BAHIA MAGDALENA. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 1100 PM PDT...0600Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM EMILIA WAS ESTIMATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 112.1 WEST OR ABOUT 80 MILES...130 KM...SOUTH OF CABO SAN LAZARO MEXICO. EMILIA IS NOW MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/HR. A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. WHILE THIS MOTION SHOULD KEEP THE CENTER OF EMILIA OFFSHORE...THE STORM WILL COME CLOSE ENOUGH TO SPREAD TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN AND WESTERN BAJA CALIFORNIA. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 70 MPH...110 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. EMILIA IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 18 HOURS AS IT MOVES OVER COOLER WATER. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES...220 KM FROM THE CENTER. HOWEVER...SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT THE WINDS ARE BEGINNING TO SUBSIDE NEAR SOUTHERNMOST BAJA CALIFORNIA. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 989 MB...29.21 INCHES. EMILIA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF BAJA CALIFORNIA WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS. REPEATING THE 1100 PM PDT POSITION...23.6 N...112.1 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...989 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 200 AM PDT. $$ FORECASTER AVILA/LANDSEA ** WTNT80 EGRR 260540 *** MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 26.07.2006 TROPICAL DEPRESSION DANIEL ANALYSED POSITION : 16.2N 142.7W ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP052006 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 26.07.2006 16.2N 142.7W WEAK 12UTC 26.07.2006 16.2N 143.8W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 27.07.2006 16.4N 145.8W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 27.07.2006 17.5N 147.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 28.07.2006 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH TROPICAL STORM EMILIA ANALYSED POSITION : 22.6N 111.5W ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP062006 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 26.07.2006 22.6N 111.5W MODERATE 12UTC 26.07.2006 24.2N 112.3W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 27.07.2006 25.8N 113.3W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 27.07.2006 26.4N 115.5W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 28.07.2006 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 260540