** WTPQ20 BABJ 251700 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TS KAEMI 0605 (0605) INITIAL TIME 251700 UTC 00HR 24.5N 117.4E 992HPA 20M/S 30KTS 380KM P12HR W 10KM/H= ** WTPQ20 BABJ 251700 CCA *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TS KAEMI 0605 (0605) INITIAL TIME 251700 UTC 00HR 24.5N 117.4E 992HPA 20M/S 30KTS 380KM P12HR WNW 10KM/H= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 251800 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TS 0605 KAEMI (0605) DOWNGRADED FROM STS ANALYSIS PSTN 251800UTC 24.4N 116.6E FAIR MOVE W 09KT PRES 990HPA MXWD 045KT 30KT 200NM SOUTHWEST 150NM NORTHEAST FORECAST 24HF 261800UTC 25.8N 113.1E 80NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION = ** WTJP21 RJTD 251800 *** WARNING 251800. WARNING VALID 261800. WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS. GALE WARNING. TROPICAL STORM 0605 KAEMI (0605) DOWNGRADED FROM SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 990 HPA AT 24.4N 116.6E SOUTH CHINA MOVING WEST 09 KNOTS. POSITION FAIR. MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 200 MILES SOUTHWEST SEMICIRCLE AND 150 MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION FOR 260600UTC AT 25.0N 114.9E WITH 60 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 996 HPA. BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION. FORECAST POSITION FOR 261800UTC AT 25.8N 113.1E WITH 80 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 998 HPA. BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTKO20 RKSL 251800 *** KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 14 NAME TS 0605 KAEMI ANALYSIS POSITION 251800UTC 24.4N 116.6E MOVEMENT W 9KT PRES/VMAX 990HPA 45KT FORECAST 12HR POSITION 260600UTC 25.8N 115.0E WITHIN 0NM PRES 996HPA KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION. ** WTPQ20 BABJ 251800 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TS KAEMI 0605 (0605) INITIAL TIME 251800 UTC 00HR 24.5N 117.5E 992HPA 20M/S 30KTS 380KM P12HR WNW 10KM/H P+24HR 26.3N 116.3E 996HPA 18M/S P+48HR 29.5N 115.9E 1000HPA 15M/S= ** WTPQ20 BABJ 251900 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TS KAEMI 0605 (0605) INITIAL TIME 251900 UTC 00HR 24.5N 117.5E 992HPA 20M/S 30KTS 380KM P12HR WNW 10KM/H= ** WTSS20 VHHH 251945 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT 251800 UTC, TROPICAL STORM KAEMI (0605) WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 992 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES OF TWO FOUR POINT FIVE DEGREES NORTH (24.5 N) ONE ONE SIX POINT SEVEN DEGREES EAST (116.7 E) AND IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN FURTHER AND MOVE NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 9 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 35 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 20 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 90 NAUTICAL MILES OVER EASTERN SEMICIRCLE, 60 NAUTICAL MILES ELSEWHERE. NO FURTHER WARNINGS ON THIS TROPICAL STORM WILL BE ISSUED BY THE HONG KONG OBSERVATORY UNLESS REGENERATION TAKES PLACE. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 261800 UTC DISSIPATED OVER LAND. ** WTSS20 VHHH 251945 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT 251800 UTC, TROPICAL STORM KAEMI (0605) WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 992 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES OF TWO FOUR POINT FIVE DEGREES NORTH (24.5 N) ONE ONE SIX POINT SEVEN DEGREES EAST (116.7 E) AND IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN FURTHER AND MOVE NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 9 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 35 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 20 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 90 NAUTICAL MILES OVER EASTERN SEMICIRCLE, 60 NAUTICAL MILES ELSEWHERE. NO FURTHER WARNINGS ON THIS TROPICAL STORM WILL BE ISSUED BY THE HONG KONG OBSERVATORY UNLESS REGENERATION TAKES PLACE. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 261800 UTC DISSIPATED OVER LAND. ** WTPZ21 KNHC 252035 *** TCMEP1 TROPICAL STORM EMILIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 18 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062006 2100 UTC TUE JUL 25 2006 AT 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA FROM BUENAVISTA TO BAHIA MAGDALENA. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.8N 111.6W AT 25/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 340 DEGREES AT 11 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 991 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. 50 KT....... 45NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT.......120NE 100SE 75SW 90NW. 12 FT SEAS..240NE 300SE 150SW 150NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.8N 111.6W AT 25/2100Z AT 25/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.4N 111.3W FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z 23.1N 112.5W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 35NE 25SE 25SW 25NW. 34 KT...100NE 75SE 60SW 75NW. FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z 24.5N 114.0W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 75NE 60SE 45SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 27/0600Z 25.5N 115.3W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 45SE 30SW 45NW. FORECAST VALID 27/1800Z 26.2N 116.4W...REMNANT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 28/1800Z 26.8N 118.3W...REMNANT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 29/1800Z...DISSIPATED OUTLOOK VALID 30/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.8N 111.6W NEXT ADVISORY AT 26/0300Z $$ FORECASTER RHOME/BEVEN ** WTPZ41 KNHC 252035 *** TCDEP1 TROPICAL STORM EMILIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 18 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062006 200 PM PDT TUE JUL 25 2006 SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT EMILIA HAS CHANGED LITTLE DURING THE LAST 6 HOURS. INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB REMAIN 55 KT AND SO DOES THE INITIAL INTENSITY. IT WOULD APPEAR THAT EMILIA HAS PEAKED AND THE CYCLONE IS NOW EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF PROGRESSIVELY COOLER WATER AND A MORE STABLE AIRMASS. EMILIA IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW BY 48 HOURS AND BE DISSIPATED BY 72 HOURS. EMILIA HAS AGAIN VEERED TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK WITH THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE NOW 340/11. GLOBAL MODELS ARE APPARENTLY HAVING TROUBLE RESOLVING THE COMPLEX STEERING PATTERN WHICH CONSISTS OF A WEAK MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SANDWICHED IN BETWEEN A STRONG DEEP LAYER RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHWEST U.S. AND A SECOND RIDGE EXTENDING ACROSS SOUTHERN MEXICO AND NORTHERN CENTRAL AMERICA. ADDITIONALLY...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES A WEAK TROUGH HAS FORMED WEST OF EMILIA. THIS PATTERN HAS RESULTED IN A NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION DURING THE DAY. GIVEN THE CURRENT MOTION AND THE RECENT PERFORMANCE OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS ALONG THE FAR RIGHT HAND SIDE OF THE MODEL SUITE THROUGH 24 HOURS AND NEAR THE CONU CONSENSUS THEREAFTER. SIGNIFICANT SPREAD AMONG THE DYNAMICAL MODELS EXISTS DURING THE LATER STAGES OF THE FORECAST. THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE VARIOUS SOLUTIONS IS WHETHER THE REMNANT LOW FROM EMILIA WILL BE FAR ENOUGH WEST TO BE STEERED BY THE LOWER LEVEL EASTERLIES OR FAR ENOUGH EAST TO CONTINUE NORTHWESTWARD. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CONSISTENT WITH THE GFS BASED BAM MODELS BUT SLOWER GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY. THE NEW OFFICIAL TRACK REPRESENTS A LARGER THAN NORMAL SHIFT TO THE RIGHT FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. GIVEN THE CURRENT MOTION AND ANTICIPATED TRACK...IT IS NOW NECESSARY TO UPGRADE THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH TO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE BAJA PENINSULA. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 25/2100Z 21.8N 111.6W 55 KT 12HR VT 26/0600Z 23.1N 112.5W 50 KT 24HR VT 26/1800Z 24.5N 114.0W 45 KT 36HR VT 27/0600Z 25.5N 115.3W 35 KT 48HR VT 27/1800Z 26.2N 116.4W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW 72HR VT 28/1800Z 26.8N 118.3W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 96HR VT 29/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER RHOME/BEVEN ** WTPZ31 KNHC 252036 *** TCPEP1 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM EMILIA ADVISORY NUMBER 18 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062006 200 PM PDT TUE JUL 25 2006 ...EMILIA CONTINUES NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD...TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS ISSUED FOR SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE BAJA PENINSULA... AT 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA FROM BUENAVISTA TO BAHIA MAGDALENA. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 200 PM PDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM EMILIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 111.6 WEST OR ABOUT 135 MILES...215 KM...SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA. EMILIA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH...20 KM/HR. A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WHILE THIS MOTION SHOULD KEEP THE CENTER OF EMILIA OFFSHORE...THE STORM WILL LIKELY COME CLOSE ENOUGH TO CAUSE TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS IN PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 65 MPH...100 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. EMILIA IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES...220 KM FROM THE CENTER. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 991 MB...29.26 INCHES. EMILIA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF BAJA CALIFORNIA WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS. OUTER BANDS ARE ALREADY AFFECTING SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF BAJA CALIFORNIA. REPEATING THE 200 PM PDT POSITION...21.8 N...111.6 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...991 MB. AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 500 PM PDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 800 PM PDT. $$ FORECASTER RHOME/BEVEN ** WTPA41 PHFO 252036 *** TCDCP1 TROPICAL STORM DANIEL DISCUSSION NUMBER 36 NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP052006 1100 AM HST TUE JUL 25 2006 THE CENTER OF DANIEL IS EASY TO LOCATE ON VISIBLE SATELLITE DATA SINCE THERE IS A WELL-DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. A 1539 UTC QUIKSCAT PASS ALSO SHOWED THE CENTER CLEARLY. THE 1800 UTC FIXES FROM ALL AGENCIES WERE CLOSELY CLUSTERED. DANIEL HAS MOVED VERY LITTLE OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. DANIEL HAS CLEARLY WEAKENED. INFRARED IMAGERY SHOWS NO ACTIVE CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER AND THE 1539 QUIKSCAT PASS SHOWED NO WINDS STRONGER THAN 35 KT. DVORAK FIXES AT 1800 UTC RANGED FROM 2.5 TO 3.0. WITH NO DEEP CONVECTION AND RELATIVE DRY AIR SURROUNDING THE STORM...DANIEL SHOULD CONTINUE TO WEAKEN. SINCE DANIEL WILL BE A SHALLOW SYSTEM FROM NOW ON...IT WILL BE INCREASINGLY STEERED BY THE LOWER LEVEL FLOW. AN UNUSUALLY STRONG 1029 HIGH CENTERED NEAR 40N 149W IS FORECAST TO MOVE WEST AND STRENGTHEN. DANIEL SHOULD GET PICKED UP BY THE LOW LEVEL EAST SOUTHEAST FLOW AND GRADUALLY ACCELERATE TOWARDS THE WEST NORTHWEST. THE MODELS ALL SHOW DANIEL FOLLOWING A WEST NORTHWEST TRACK. FOR OUR FORECAST TRACK WE HAVE COMPROMISED BETWEEN THE GFS...WHICH HAS BEEN PERFORMING WELL OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS...AND CONSENSUS...WITH A TRACK SLIGHTLY TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. DANIEL IS CURRENTLY OVER 25 DEGREE CELSIUS SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES...AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE OVER 26 DEGREE CELSIUS SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES NEAR THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS. THE SHIPS MODEL SHOWS DANIEL RE-INTENSIFYING OVER THE WARMER WATER AT DAYS 4 AND 5...BUT WITH NO DEEP CONVECTION REMAINING...RE-INTENSIFICATION IS NOT LIKELY. DANIEL IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE WEAKENING OVER THE NEXT 5 DAYS. ALTHOUGH THE CIRCULATION WILL BE WEAK...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN DANIEL AND THE STRONG HIGH TO THE NORTH WILL KEEP THE WINDS ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE SYSTEM A BIT STRONGER THAN WOULD OTHERWISE BE EXPECTED. THERE WILL STILL BE A SHALLOW AREA OF VERY MOIST AIR ASSOCIATED WITH DANIEL FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS BUT THE MODELS SHOW NO STRONG DYNAMICS TO LIFT THE MOISTURE. THAT WILL LIMIT THE THREAT OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ALONG DANIEL/S TRACK. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 25/2100Z 16.2N 142.8W 35 KT 12HR VT 26/0600Z 16.2N 143.2W 30 KT 24HR VT 26/1800Z 16.4N 144.2W 25 KT 36HR VT 27/0600Z 16.9N 146.2W 25 KT 48HR VT 27/1800Z 17.4N 149.0W 25 KT 72HR VT 28/1800Z 18.6N 154.9W 25 KT 96HR VT 29/1800Z 20.5N 161.0W 25 KT...DISSIPATING 120HR VT 30/1800Z 21.8N 167.4W 25 KT...DISSIPATING $$ FORECASTER KODAMA/DONALDSON ** WTPA31 PHFO 252037 *** TCPCP1 TTAA00 PHFO DDHHMM BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM DANIEL ADVISORY NUMBER 36 NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP052006 1100 AM HST TUE JUL 25 2006 AT 1100 AM HST...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DANIEL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 142.8 WEST OR ABOUT 845 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF HILO...HAWAII AND ABOUT 1050 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF HONOLULU...OAHU. DANIEL IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 5 MPH. THE FOREWARD MOTION WILL GRADUALLY ACCELERATE TO 16 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES FROM THE CENTER. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1004 MB...29.65 INCHES. REPEATING THE 1100 AM HST POSITION...16.2 N...142.8 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST NEAR 5 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER AT 500 PM HST. $$ FORECASTER KODAMA/DONALDSON ** WTPA21 PHFO 252037 *** TCMCP1 TROPICAL STORM DANIEL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 36 NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP052006 2100 UTC TUE JUL 25 2006 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.2N 142.8W AT 25/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 4 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 20NE 0SE 0SW 15NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 20NE 0SE 0SW 15NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.2N 142.8W AT 25/2100Z AT 25/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.2N 142.6W FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z 16.2N 143.2W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z 16.4N 144.2W MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 27/0600Z 16.9N 146.2W MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 27/1800Z 17.4N 149.0W MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 28/1800Z 18.6N 154.9W MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 29/1800Z 20.5N 161.0W...DISSIPATING MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 30/1800Z 21.8N 167.4W...DISSIPATING MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.2N 142.8W NEXT ADVISORY AT 26/0300Z $$ FORECASTER KODAMA/DONALDSON ** WTPQ20 BABJ 252000 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TS KAEMI 0605 (0605) INITIAL TIME 252000 UTC 00HR 24.5N 117.3E 992HPA 20M/S 30KTS 380KM P12HR WNW 15KM/H= ** WTPA31 PHFO 252123 *** TCPCP1 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM DANIEL ADVISORY NUMBER 36 NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP052006 1100 AM HST TUE JUL 25 2006 AT 1100 AM HST...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DANIEL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 142.8 WEST OR ABOUT 845 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF HILO...HAWAII AND ABOUT 1050 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF HONOLULU...OAHU. DANIEL IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 5 MPH. THE FOREWARD MOTION WILL GRADUALLY ACCELERATE TO 16 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES FROM THE CENTER. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1004 MB...29.65 INCHES. REPEATING THE 1100 AM HST POSITION...16.2 N...142.8 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST NEAR 5 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER AT 500 PM HST. $$ FORECASTER KODAMA/DONALDSON ** WTPQ20 BABJ 252100 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TD KAEMI 0605 (0605) INITIAL TIME 252100 UTC 00HR 24.5N 117.2E 994HPA 17M/S= P12HR W 10KM/H= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 252100 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TS 0605 KAEMI (0605) ANALYSIS PSTN 252100UTC 24.6N 116.1E FAIR MOVE WNW 08KT PRES 990HPA MXWD 045KT 30KT 200NM SOUTHWEST 150NM NORTHEAST FORECAST 24HF 262100UTC 26.1N 112.7E 80NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION = ** WTPQ20 BABJ 252100 CCA *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TD KAEMI 0605 (0605) INITIAL TIME 252100 UTC 00HR 24.5N 117.2E 994HPA 17M/S P12HR W 10KM/H P+24HR 26.1N 114.9E 1000HPA 15M/S= ** WTPQ20 BABJ 252200 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TD KAEMI 0605 (0605) INITIAL TIME 252200 UTC 00HR 24.5N 117.0E 993HPA 16M/S= P12HR W 10KM/H= ** WTPZ31 KNHC 252357 *** TCPEP1 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM EMILIA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 18A NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062006 500 PM PDT TUE JUL 25 2006 ...EMILIA GETTING A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED AS IT EDGES CLOSER TO THE SOUTHWESTERN BAJA PENINSULA... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA FROM BUENAVISTA TO BAHIA MAGDALENA. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 500 PM PDT...0000Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM EMILIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 111.4 WEST OR ABOUT 95 MILES...155 KM...WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA. EMILIA IS MOVING BETWEEN NORTH-NORTHWEST AND NORTH NEAR 13 MPH...20 KM/HR. A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WHILE THIS MOTION SHOULD KEEP THE CENTER OF EMILIA OFFSHORE...THE STORM WILL LIKELY COME CLOSE ENOUGH TO CAUSE TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS IN PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 65 MPH...100 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. EMILIA IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN IN 12 TO 18 HOURS AFTER IT MOVES OVER COOLER WATER. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES...220 KM FROM THE CENTER. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 991 MB...29.26 INCHES. EMILIA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF BAJA CALIFORNIA WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS. OUTER BANDS ARE ALREADY AFFECTING SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF BAJA CALIFORNIA. REPEATING THE 500 PM PDT POSITION...22.5 N...111.4 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...991 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 800 PM PDT. $$ FORECASTER STEWART