** WTPQ20 BABJ 251200 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST STS KAEMI 0605 (0605) INITIAL TIME 251200 UTC 00HR 24.4N 117.7E 985HPA 28M/S 30KTS 400KM 50KTS 60KM P12HR WNW 20KM/H P+24HR 27.1N 115.0E 996HPA 18M/S P+48HR 31.1N 115.3E 1000HPA 15M/S= ** WTJP21 RJTD 251200 *** WARNING 251200. WARNING VALID 261200. WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS. STORM WARNING. SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 0605 KAEMI (0605) 985 HPA AT 24.3N 117.6E SOUTH CHINA MOVING WEST 10 KNOTS. POSITION FAIR. MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 200 MILES SOUTHWEST SEMICIRCLE AND 150 MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION FOR 261200UTC AT 25.9N 113.7E WITH 80 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 996 HPA. BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ20 BABJ 251300 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST STS KAEMI 0605 (0605) INITIAL TIME 251300 UTC 00HR 24.4N 117.6E 985HPA 28M/S 30KTS 400KM 50KTS 60KM P12HR WNW 20KM/H= ** WTSS20 VHHH 251345 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING SEVERE TROPICAL STORM KAEMI (0605) HAS WEAKENED INTO A TROPICAL STORM WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 990 HECTOPASCALS. AT 251200 UTC, IT WAS CENTRED WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES OF TWO FOUR POINT FOUR DEGREES NORTH (24.4 N) ONE ONE SEVEN POINT SIX DEGREES EAST (117.6 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 9 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 45 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 40 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 180 NAUTICAL MILES OVER EASTERN SEMICIRCLE, 120 NAUTICAL MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 261200 UTC TWO SIX POINT NINE DEGREES NORTH (26.9 N) ONE ONE FOUR POINT EIGHT DEGREES EAST (114.8 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 25 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 271200 UTC DISSIPATED OVER LAND. ** WTSS20 VHHH 251345 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING SEVERE TROPICAL STORM KAEMI (0605) HAS WEAKENED INTO A TROPICAL STORM WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 990 HECTOPASCALS. AT 251200 UTC, IT WAS CENTRED WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES OF TWO FOUR POINT FOUR DEGREES NORTH (24.4 N) ONE ONE SEVEN POINT SIX DEGREES EAST (117.6 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 9 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 45 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 40 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 180 NAUTICAL MILES OVER EASTERN SEMICIRCLE, 120 NAUTICAL MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 261200 UTC TWO SIX POINT NINE DEGREES NORTH (26.9 N) ONE ONE FOUR POINT EIGHT DEGREES EAST (114.8 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 25 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 271200 UTC DISSIPATED OVER LAND. ** WTSS20 VHHH 251345 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING SEVERE TROPICAL STORM KAEMI (0605) HAS WEAKENED INTO A TROPICAL STORM WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 990 HECTOPASCALS. AT 251200 UTC, IT WAS CENTRED WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES OF TWO FOUR POINT FOUR DEGREES NORTH (24.4 N) ONE ONE SEVEN POINT SIX DEGREES EAST (117.6 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 9 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 45 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 40 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 180 NAUTICAL MILES OVER EASTERN SEMICIRCLE, 120 NAUTICAL MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 261200 UTC TWO SIX POINT NINE DEGREES NORTH (26.9 N) ONE ONE FOUR POINT EIGHT DEGREES EAST (114.8 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 25 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 271200 UTC DISSIPATED OVER LAND. ** WTPA21 PHFO 251430 *** TCMCP1 TROPICAL STORM DANIEL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 35 NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP052006 1500 UTC TUE JUL 25 2006 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.2N 142.6W AT 25/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 1 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT....... 50NE 45SE 45SW 50NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 45NE 35SE 35SW 45NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.2N 142.6W AT 25/1500Z AT 25/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.2N 142.4W FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 16.3N 143.2W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 45SE 45SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 16.5N 144.1W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 45NE 40SE 40SW 45NW. FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 16.9N 145.5W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 45NE 40SE 40SW 45NW. FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z 17.4N 147.5W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 45NE 40SE 40SW 45NW. FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 18.8N 153.3W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 45NE 40SE 40SW 45NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 29/1200Z 20.1N 160.1W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 30/1200Z 21.3N 166.7W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.2N 142.6W NEXT ADVISORY AT 25/2100Z $$ FORECASTER TANABE/HOUSTON ** WTPA31 PHFO 251430 *** TCPCP1 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM DANIEL ADVISORY NUMBER 35 NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP052006 500 AM HST TUE JUL 25 2006 ...DANIEL CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AND IS NEARLY STATIONARY... AT 500 AM HST...1500Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DANIEL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 142.6 WEST OR ABOUT 855 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF HILO...HAWAII AND ABOUT 1060 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF HONOLULU...HAWAII. DANIEL IS NEARLY STATIONARY...BUT IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN MOVING SLOWLY WESTWARD LATER TODAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES FROM THE CENTER. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1003 MB...29.62 INCHES. ALL INTERESTS IN AND AROUND THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF DANIEL OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. REPEATING THE 500 AM HST POSITION...16.2 N...142.6 W. MOVEMENT...NEARLY STATIONARY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER AT 1100 AM HST. $$ FORECASTER TANABE/HOUSTON ** WTPZ41 KNHC 251432 *** TCDEP1 TROPICAL STORM EMILIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 17 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062006 800 AM PDT TUE JUL 25 2006 SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT EMILIA HAS STRENGTHENED WITH INCREASING CONVECTION SEEN OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 55 KT IN AGREEMENT WITH SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM BOTH SAB AND TAFB. DESPITE THE RECENT ORGANIZATION...EMILIA'S OPPORTUNITY FOR STRENGTHENING APPEARS SMALL AS THE CYCLONE MOVES INTO PROGRESSIVELY COOLER WATER AND A MORE STABLE AIRMASS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS A LITTLE MORE STRENGTHENING THROUGH 12 HOURS WITH WEAKENING INDICATED THEREAFTER. EMILIA IS LOCATED WITHIN A LARGE LOWER TO MID LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IN BETWEEN A DEEP LAYER RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHWEST U.S. AND A SECOND RIDGE EXTENDING ACROSS SOUTHERN MEXICO AND NORTHERN CENTRAL AMERICA. THIS PATTERN HAS RESULTED IN A NORTHWESTWARD MOTION WHICH MANY OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS HAVE NOT HANDLED WELL. MOST OF THE GUIDANCE CONTINUE AN OVERALL NORTHWEST MOTION THROUGH 36 HOURS. THEREAFTER...THE GFDL AGAIN TURNS THE CYCLONE NORTHWARDS WHILE THE GFS-BASED BAM MODELS TURN THE CYCLONE WESTWARD. GIVEN THE RECENT PERFORMANCE OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS ESSENTIALLY UNCHANGED AND ALONG THE FAR RIGHT SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE SUITE THROUGH 24 HOURS. SUBSEQUENTLY...A GRADUAL TURN MORE TOWARDS THE WEST IS SHOWN UNDER THE ASSUMPTION THAT AN INCREASINGLY SHALLOW SYSTEM WILL BE STEERED BY THE LOWER LEVEL EASTERLIES. ONE CAVEAT IS THAT THE GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST THAT EMILIA COULD BE TOO FAR EAST FOR THE LOW LEVEL RIDGING TO TURN IT WESTWARD. GIVEN THE SPREAD OF THE GUIDANCE AT THE LATER STAGES OF THE FORECAST...A SLOW WESTWARD MOTION IS SHOWN. NEARBY SHIP OBSERVATIONS AND SSM/I DERIVED OCEAN WINDS REQUIRE AN EXPANSION OF THE WIND RADII OVER THE NORTHEASTERN QUADRANT. THIS CHANGE NOW WARRANTS THE ISSUANCE OF A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE BAJA PENINSULA. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 25/1500Z 20.6N 111.3W 55 KT 12HR VT 26/0000Z 21.8N 112.3W 60 KT 24HR VT 26/1200Z 23.3N 114.0W 50 KT 36HR VT 27/0000Z 24.3N 115.5W 40 KT 48HR VT 27/1200Z 25.2N 116.8W 30 KT...DISSIPATING 72HR VT 28/1200Z 25.8N 119.6W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW 96HR VT 29/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER RHOME/BEVEN ** WTPZ31 KNHC 251432 *** TCPEP1 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM EMILIA ADVISORY NUMBER 17 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062006 800 AM PDT TUE JUL 25 2006 ...EMILIA STRENGTHENS AS IT MOVES NORTHWESTWARD. TROPICAL STORM WATCHES ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN BAJA PENINSULA... AT 800 PDT...1500 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA FROM BUENAVISTA TO BAHIA MAGDALENA. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 800 AM PDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM EMILIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 111.3 WEST OR ABOUT 185 MILES...295 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA. EMILIA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH...11 KM/HR...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH SOME INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. WHILE THIS MOTION SHOULD KEEP THE CENTER OF EMILIA OFFSHORE...THE STORM MAY COME CLOSE ENOUGH TO CAUSE TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS IN PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 65 MPH...100 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE TODAY. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES...220 KM FROM THE CENTER. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 991 MB...29.26 INCHES. REPEATING THE 800 AM PDT POSITION...20.6 N...111.3 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...991 MB. AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 1100 AM PDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 200 PM PDT. $$ FORECASTER RHOME/BEVEN ** WTPZ41 KNHC 251432 *** TCDEP1 TROPICAL STORM EMILIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 17 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062006 800 AM PDT TUE JUL 25 2006 SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT EMILIA HAS STRENGTHENED WITH INCREASING CONVECTION SEEN OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 55 KT IN AGREEMENT WITH SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM BOTH SAB AND TAFB. DESPITE THE RECENT ORGANIZATION...EMILIA'S OPPORTUNITY FOR STRENGTHENING APPEARS SMALL AS THE CYCLONE MOVES INTO PROGRESSIVELY COOLER WATER AND A MORE STABLE AIRMASS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS A LITTLE MORE STRENGTHENING THROUGH 12 HOURS WITH WEAKENING INDICATED THEREAFTER. EMILIA IS LOCATED WITHIN A LARGE LOWER TO MID LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IN BETWEEN A DEEP LAYER RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHWEST U.S. AND A SECOND RIDGE EXTENDING ACROSS SOUTHERN MEXICO AND NORTHERN CENTRAL AMERICA. THIS PATTERN HAS RESULTED IN A NORTHWESTWARD MOTION WHICH MANY OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS HAVE NOT HANDLED WELL. MOST OF THE GUIDANCE CONTINUE AN OVERALL NORTHWEST MOTION THROUGH 36 HOURS. THEREAFTER...THE GFDL AGAIN TURNS THE CYCLONE NORTHWARDS WHILE THE GFS-BASED BAM MODELS TURN THE CYCLONE WESTWARD. GIVEN THE RECENT PERFORMANCE OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS ESSENTIALLY UNCHANGED AND ALONG THE FAR RIGHT SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE SUITE THROUGH 24 HOURS. SUBSEQUENTLY...A GRADUAL TURN MORE TOWARDS THE WEST IS SHOWN UNDER THE ASSUMPTION THAT AN INCREASINGLY SHALLOW SYSTEM WILL BE STEERED BY THE LOWER LEVEL EASTERLIES. ONE CAVEAT IS THAT THE GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST THAT EMILIA COULD BE TOO FAR EAST FOR THE LOW LEVEL RIDGING TO TURN IT WESTWARD. GIVEN THE SPREAD OF THE GUIDANCE AT THE LATER STAGES OF THE FORECAST...A SLOW WESTWARD MOTION IS SHOWN. NEARBY SHIP OBSERVATIONS AND SSM/I DERIVED OCEAN WINDS REQUIRE AN EXPANSION OF THE WIND RADII OVER THE NORTHEASTERN QUADRANT. THIS CHANGE NOW WARRANTS THE ISSUANCE OF A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE BAJA PENINSULA. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 25/1500Z 20.6N 111.3W 55 KT 12HR VT 26/0000Z 21.8N 112.3W 60 KT 24HR VT 26/1200Z 23.3N 114.0W 50 KT 36HR VT 27/0000Z 24.3N 115.5W 40 KT 48HR VT 27/1200Z 25.2N 116.8W 30 KT...DISSIPATING 72HR VT 28/1200Z 25.8N 119.6W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW 96HR VT 29/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER RHOME/BEVEN ** WTPZ21 KNHC 251433 *** TCMEP1 TROPICAL STORM EMILIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 17 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062006 1500 UTC TUE JUL 25 2006 AT 800 PDT...1500 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA FROM BUENAVISTA TO BAHIA MAGDALENA. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.6N 111.3W AT 25/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 325 DEGREES AT 6 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 991 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. 50 KT....... 60NE 45SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT.......120NE 90SE 60SW 60NW. 12 FT SEAS..150NE 200SE 150SW 150NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.6N 111.3W AT 25/1500Z AT 25/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.3N 111.0W FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 21.8N 112.3W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 45SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT...120NE 90SE 60SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 23.3N 114.0W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 25SW 25NW. 34 KT...100NE 75SE 50SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 24.3N 115.5W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 90NE 60SE 40SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z 25.2N 116.8W...DISSIPATING MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 25.8N 119.6W...REMNANT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 29/1200Z...DISSIPATED OUTLOOK VALID 30/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.6N 111.3W NEXT ADVISORY AT 25/2100Z $$ FORECASTER RHOME/BEVEN ** WTPQ20 BABJ 251400 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST STS KAEMI 0605 (0605) INITIAL TIME 251400 UTC 00HR 24.4N 117.6E 988HPA 25M/S 30KTS 400KM P12HR WNW 15KM/H= ** WTPN32 PHNC 251600 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// REF/A/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN/PEARL HARBOR HI/251530JUL2006// AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL STORM 06E (EMILIA) WARNING NR 017 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 251200Z --- NEAR 20.6N 111.3W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 325 DEGREES AT 06 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 20.6N 111.3W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 260000Z --- 21.8N 112.3W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 11 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 261200Z --- 23.3N 114.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 270000Z --- 24.3N 115.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 07 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 271200Z --- 25.2N 116.8W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 281200Z --- 25.8N 119.6W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT --- REMARKS: 251600Z POSITION NEAR 21.0N 111.6W. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 06E (EMILIA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 160 NM SOUT-SOUTHWESTWARD OF CABO, SAN LUCAS, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 251200Z IS 24 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 252200Z, 260400Z, 261000Z AND 261600Z. REFER TO HURRICANE 05E (DANIEL) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PHNC) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.// ** WTPA41 PHFO 251508 *** TCDCP1 TROPICAL STORM DANIEL DISCUSSION NUMBER 35 NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP052006 500 AM HST TUE JUL 25 2006 BASED ON A 0800 UTC AMSU PASS...HAVE RELOCATED THE 06Z POSITION FURTHER TO THE EAST. BLENDED IR IMAGERY...WHICH ENHANCES LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AGAINST THE OCEAN AT NIGHT...SHOWS A FAIRLY WELL DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. THE 1200 UTC POSITION...BASED PRIMARILY ON THE PHFO FIX...IS THE SAME AS THE FORMER 0600 UTC POSITION. DANIEL IS NEARLY STATIONARY...HAVING SLOWED SIGNIFICANTLY OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS IN RESPONSE TO WEAK ENVIRONMENTAL STEERING. DANIEL APPEARS TO BE DRAWING IN RELATIVELY COOLER AND DRIER LOW LEVEL AIR FROM THE MARITIME BOUNDARY LAYER NORTH OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE. THERE HAS BEEN NO DEEP CONVECTION WITH DANIEL FOR THE PAST 12 TO 15 HOURS...MAKING DVORAK ESTIMATES DIFFICULT. THE CURRENT INTENSITY OF DANIEL IS SET AT 45 KNOTS BASED ON A FINAL-T OF 2.5 BY PHFO...WHICH RELIES ON DVORAK CONSTRAINTS FOR WEAKENING. THE JTWC AND SAB FINAL-T WERE 2.0. WITH DANIEL NEARLY STATIONARY AND HAVING MARKEDLY WEAKENED OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS...THE FORECAST TRACK THROUGH 72 HOURS WAS SHIFTED TO THE SOUTH AND SLOWED DOWN. LACK OF DEEP CONVECTION INDICATES A SHALLOWER SYSTEM THAT WOULD RECEIVE MORE INFLUENCE FROM LOW LEVEL STEERING TOWARD THE WEST. THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK FOLLOWS GUNS CLOSELY...WHICH IS JUST NORTH OF THE GUNA...CONU...GFS AND NOGAPS TRACKS. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD NORTH OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS WITHIN 60 TO 72 HOURS. WITH DANIEL EXPECTED TO REMAIN WEAK AND SHALLOW...THE SPEED OF DANIEL WAS INCREASED TOWARD THE ANTICIPATED BACKGROUND TRADE WIND SPEED OF 15 TO 17 MPH. THE DAY 4 AND 5 FORECAST POSITIONS REPRESENT ONLY A SLIGHT ADJUSTMENT TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK. DANIEL IS CURRENTLY OVER 25 DEGREE CELSIUS SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES...AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE OVER 26 DEGREE CELSIUS SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES NEAR THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS. SHEAR WILL REMAIN WEAK...UNDER 10 KT...ACROSS DANIEL OVER THE NEXT 2 TO 3 DAYS. THESE TWO FACTORS WILL COUNTERACT THE EFFECTS OF THE COOLER AND DRIER AIR BEING ENTRAINED INTO THE SYSTEM. GIVEN THIS BALANCE...WILL FORECAST A SLIGHT WEAKENING OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...BUT KEEP DANIEL AT MINIMAL TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH THROUGH 5 DAYS. THIS TREND CLOSELY FOLLOWS THE NGPI AND GFDI INTENSITY FORECASTS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 25/1500Z 16.2N 142.6W 45 KT 12HR VT 26/0000Z 16.3N 143.2W 40 KT 24HR VT 26/1200Z 16.5N 144.1W 35 KT 36HR VT 27/0000Z 16.9N 145.5W 35 KT 48HR VT 27/1200Z 17.4N 147.5W 35 KT 72HR VT 28/1200Z 18.8N 153.3W 35 KT 96HR VT 29/1200Z 20.1N 160.1W 35 KT 120HR VT 30/1200Z 21.3N 166.7W 35 KT $$ FORECASTER TANABE/HOUSTON ** WTPN31 PHNC 251600 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// REF/A/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN/PEARL HARBOR HI/251535JUL2006// AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL STORM 05E (DANIEL) WARNING NR 035 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 251200Z --- NEAR 16.2N 142.6W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 01 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 16.2N 142.6W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 260000Z --- 16.3N 143.2W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 261200Z --- 16.5N 144.1W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 270000Z --- 16.9N 145.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 10 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 271200Z --- 17.4N 147.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 14 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 281200Z --- 18.8N 153.3W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 16 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 291200Z --- 20.1N 160.1W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 16 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 301200Z --- 21.3N 166.7W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT --- REMARKS: 251600Z POSITION NEAR 16.2N 142.8W. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 05E (DANIEL), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 750 NM EAST-SOUTEASTWARD OF HILO, HAWAII, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 01 KNOT OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 251200Z IS 23 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 252200Z, 260400Z, 261000Z AND 261600Z. REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 06E (EMILIA) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PHNC) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.// ** WTPQ20 RJTD 251500 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TS 0605 KAEMI (0605) DOWNGRADED FROM STS ANALYSIS PSTN 251500UTC 24.4N 117.0E FAIR MOVE W 10KT PRES 990HPA MXWD 045KT 30KT 200NM SOUTHWEST 150NM NORTHEAST FORECAST 24HF 261500UTC 25.8N 113.3E 80NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION = ** WTPQ20 BABJ 251500 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TS KAEMI 0605 (0605) INITIAL TIME 251500 UTC 00HR 24.5N 117.3E 990HPA 23M/S 30KTS 400KM P12HR WNW 20KM/H= ** WTPQ20 BABJ 251600 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TS KAEMI 0605 (0605) INITIAL TIME 251600 UTC 00HR 24.6N 117.1E 992HPA 20M/S 30KTS 380KM P12HR WNW 20KM/H= ** WTSS20 VHHH 251645 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT 251500 UTC, TROPICAL STORM KAEMI (0605) WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 992 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES OF TWO FOUR POINT FIVE DEGREES NORTH (24.5 N) ONE ONE SEVEN POINT THREE DEGREES EAST (117.3 E) AND IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN FURTHER AND MOVE NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 9 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 40 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 30 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 120 NAUTICAL MILES OVER EASTERN SEMICIRCLE, 90 NAUTICAL MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 261500 UTC DISSIPATED OVER LAND. ** WTSS20 VHHH 251645 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT 251500 UTC, TROPICAL STORM KAEMI (0605) WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 992 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES OF TWO FOUR POINT FIVE DEGREES NORTH (24.5 N) ONE ONE SEVEN POINT THREE DEGREES EAST (117.3 E) AND IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN FURTHER AND MOVE NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 9 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 40 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 30 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 120 NAUTICAL MILES OVER EASTERN SEMICIRCLE, 90 NAUTICAL MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 261500 UTC DISSIPATED OVER LAND. ** WTNT80 EGRR 251722 *** MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 25.07.2006 TROPICAL STORM DANIEL ANALYSED POSITION : 16.3N 143.0W ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP052006 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 25.07.2006 16.3N 143.0W MODERATE 00UTC 26.07.2006 16.6N 144.4W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 26.07.2006 17.5N 146.1W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 27.07.2006 18.2N 148.1W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 27.07.2006 19.0N 150.6W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 28.07.2006 20.4N 153.5W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 28.07.2006 20.6N 156.2W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 29.07.2006 21.2N 159.4W WEAK WEAKENING RAPIDLY 12UTC 29.07.2006 22.0N 162.8W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 30.07.2006 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH TROPICAL STORM EMILIA ANALYSED POSITION : 20.1N 111.1W ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP062006 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 25.07.2006 20.1N 111.1W MODERATE 00UTC 26.07.2006 21.8N 112.1W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 26.07.2006 23.4N 112.7W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 27.07.2006 24.9N 114.4W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 27.07.2006 25.3N 115.5W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 28.07.2006 26.2N 116.6W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 28.07.2006 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 251722 ** WTPZ31 KNHC 251730 *** TCPEP1 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM EMILIA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 17A NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062006 1100 AM PDT TUE JUL 25 2006 ...EMILIA MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD...OUTER BANDS AFFECTING SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA... A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA FROM BUENAVISTA TO BAHIA MAGDALENA. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MAY BE REQUIRED FOR THIS AREA LATER TODAY. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 1100 AM PDT...1800Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM EMILIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 111.4 WEST OR ABOUT 135 MILES...215 KM...SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA. EMILIA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH... 16 KM/HR...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH SOME INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. WHILE THIS MOTION SHOULD KEEP THE CENTER OF EMILIA OFFSHORE...THE STORM MAY COME CLOSE ENOUGH TO CAUSE TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS IN PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 65 MPH...100 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE TODAY. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES...220 KM FROM THE CENTER. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 991 MB...29.26 INCHES. REPEATING THE 1100 AM PDT POSITION...21.4 N...111.4 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...991 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 200 PM PDT. $$ FORECASTER RHOME/BEVEN