** WTIN20 DEMS 250603 *** TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK ------------------------ DEMS -RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONES NEW DELHI 25-07-2006(.) TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NORTH INDIAN OCEAN (THE BAY OF BENGAL AND THE ARABIAN SEA ) VALID FOR NEXT 24 HOURS ISSUED AT 0600 UTC (.) CONVECTIVE CLOUDS ARE SEEN OVER SOUTH BAY OF BENGAL AND ANDAMAN SEA (.) RIDGE LINE AT 200 HPA RUNS ALONG 30 DEG. NORTH OVER THE INDIAN REGION (.) ** WTPQ20 BABJ 250600 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TY KAEMI 0605 (0605) INITIAL TIME 250600 UTC 00HR 24.4N 118.7E 970HPA 35M/S 30KTS 430KM 50KTS 100KM P12HR NW 20KM/H P+24HR 26.1N 116.3E 990HPA 23M/S P+48HR 29.0N 115.5E 996HPA 18M/S P+72HR 33.6N 117.0E 1002HPA 12M/S= ** WTJP21 RJTD 250600 *** WARNING 250600. WARNING VALID 260600. WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS. STORM WARNING. SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 0605 KAEMI (0605) 980 HPA AT 24.3N 118.7E TAIWAN STRAIT MOVING NORTHWEST 11 KNOTS. POSITION GOOD. MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 40 MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 230 MILES SOUTHWEST SEMICIRCLE AND 180 MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION FOR 260600UTC AT 25.8N 114.7E WITH 80 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 994 HPA. BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 250600 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME STS 0605 KAEMI (0605) ANALYSIS PSTN 250600UTC 24.3N 118.7E GOOD MOVE NW 11KT PRES 980HPA MXWD 060KT 50KT 40NM 30KT 230NM SOUTHWEST 180NM NORTHEAST FORECAST 24HF 260600UTC 25.8N 114.7E 80NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION = ** WTPQ30 RJTD 250600 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING REASONING NO.15 FOR STS 0605 KAEMI (0605) 1.GENERAL COMMENTS REASONING OF PROGNOSIS THIS TIME IS SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS ONE. POSITION FORECAST IS MAINLY BASED ON NWP AND PERSISTENCY. 2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION NOTHING PARTICULAR TO EXPLAIN. 3.MOTION FORECAST POSITION ACCURACY AT 250600 UTC IS GOOD. STS WILL MOVE AT THE SAME SPEED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. STS WILL MOVE WEST-NORTHWEST FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. 4.INTENSITY FORECAST STS WILL BE GRADED DOWN TO TD WITHIN 24 HOURS. STS WILL WEAKEN BECAUSE LANDFALL IS EXPECTED WITHIN 6 HOURS.= ** WTKO20 RKSL 250600 *** KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 13 NAME STS 0605 KAEMI ANALYSIS POSITION 250600UTC 24.4N 118.7E MOVEMENT NW 11KT PRES/VMAX 980HPA 56KT FORECAST 12HR POSITION 251800UTC 25.4N 116.9E WITHIN 45NM PRES/VMAX 990HPA 41KT 24HR POSITION 260600UTC 26.7N 115.4E WITHIN 80NM PRES/VMAX 996HPA 33KT 36HR POSITION 261800UTC 27.9N 114.3E WITHIN 0NM PRES 1000HPA KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION. ** WTPQ20 BABJ 250700 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TY KAEMI 0605 (0605) INITIAL TIME 250700 UTC 00HR 24.5N 118.6E 970HPA 35M/S 30KTS 430KM 50KTS 100KM P12HR NW 20KM/H= ** WTPN31 PGTW 250900 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL STORM 06W (KAEMI) WARNING NR 030 DOWNGRADED FROM TYPHOON 06W 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 250600Z --- NEAR 24.1N 118.7E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 305 DEGREES AT 10 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER REPEAT POSIT: 24.1N 118.7E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 251800Z --- 25.2N 117.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 260600Z --- 26.7N 115.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 250900Z POSITION NEAR 24.4N 118.3E. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 06W (KAEMI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 145 NM NORTH- WEST OF KAOHSIUNG, TAIWAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 250600Z IS 19 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 251500Z, 252100Z AND 260300Z.// ** WTSS20 VHHH 250745 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT 250600 UTC, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM KAEMI (0605) WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 975 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES OF TWO FOUR POINT THREE DEGREES NORTH (24.3 N) ONE ONE EIGHT POINT EIGHT DEGREES EAST (118.8 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 9 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 60 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 60 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 30 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 210 NAUTICAL MILES OVER EASTERN SEMICIRCLE, 180 NAUTICAL MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 260600 UTC TWO SIX POINT THREE DEGREES NORTH (26.3 N) ONE ONE FIVE POINT FIVE DEGREES EAST (115.5 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 30 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 270600 UTC DISSIPATED OVER LAND. ** WTSS20 VHHH 250745 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT 250600 UTC, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM KAEMI (0605) WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 975 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES OF TWO FOUR POINT THREE DEGREES NORTH (24.3 N) ONE ONE EIGHT POINT EIGHT DEGREES EAST (118.8 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 9 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 60 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 60 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 30 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 210 NAUTICAL MILES OVER EASTERN SEMICIRCLE, 180 NAUTICAL MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 260600 UTC TWO SIX POINT THREE DEGREES NORTH (26.3 N) ONE ONE FIVE POINT FIVE DEGREES EAST (115.5 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 30 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 270600 UTC DISSIPATED OVER LAND. ** WTPA31 PHFO 250817 *** TCPCP1 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM DANIEL ADVISORY NUMBER 34 NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP052006 1100 PM HST MON JUL 24 2006 ...DANIEL DOWNGRADED TO A TROPICAL STORM... AT 1100 PM HST...0900Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DANIEL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 142.7 WEST OR ABOUT 850 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF HILO...HAWAII AND ABOUT 1055 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF HONOLULU...OAHU. DANIEL IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 7 MPH AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 65 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 75 MILES FROM THE CENTER. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 999 MB...29.50 INCHES. ALL INTERESTS IN AND AROUND THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF DANIEL THIS WEEK. REPEATING THE 1100 PM HST POSITION...16.2 N...142.7 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST NEAR 7 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER AT 1100 PM HST. $$ FORECASTER HOUSTON ** WTPZ41 KNHC 250838 *** TCDEP1 TROPICAL STORM EMILIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 16 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062006 200 AM PDT TUE JUL 25 2006 EMILIA'S WEAKENING HAS...FOR THE TIME BEING...HALTED AS MORE PROMINENT BANDING FEATURES HAVE BEEN OBSERVED THIS EVENING. SUBJECTIVE DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB ARE BOTH AT 3.0 OR 45 KT. THE INITIAL MOTION CONTINUES AT 320/06. BASED UPON SHIP DGGV AT 06Z TO THE NORTHEAST OF EMILIA...THE TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WERE ANALYZED TO HAVE EXPANDED OUTWARD SLIGHTLY. USUALLY...A DEEP LAYER RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHWEST U.S. TO THE NORTH OF THE TROPICAL STORM WOULD INDUCE A MORE WESTWARD MOVEMENT THAN IS FOUND WITH EMILIA. HOWEVER...THE TROPICAL STORM IS SITUATED ON THE NORTHEAST PERIPHERY OF A LARGE MID- TO LOW-LEVEL CYCLONIC GYRE...WHICH HAS BEEN HELPING TO PUSH THE STORM IN A MORE NORTHERLY DIRECTION. AS EMILIA CONTINUES TO ROUND THE WEAKENING GYRE...ALONG WITH A CONTINUED STRONG RIDGE TO THE NORTH...EMILIA'S TRACK SHOULD BEND TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST IN ABOUT TWO DAYS. THE FORECAST TRACK IS SHIFTED SLIGHTLY NORTH OF THE EARLIER PREDICTION...BUT NOT AS CLOSE TO BAJA CALIFORNIA AS THE GFDL MODEL IS SUGGESTING. WHILE THE SHEAR IS CURRENTLY WEAK AND SSTS ARE A WARM 27C...EMILIA IS MOVING INTO A MORE STABLE ATMOSPHERIC ENVIRONMENT SHORTLY. THE STORM MAY HAVE AN OPPORTUNITY TO INTENSIFY SOME DURING THE NEXT 12-24 HR BEFORE MOVING OVER 23C WATERS IN TWO DAYS TIME. THE INTENSITY FORECAST CLOSELY FOLLOWS SHIPS AND IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS NHC PREDICTION. ALTHOUGH THE CENTER AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS OF EMILIA ARE ANTICIPATED TO REMAIN OFFSHORE...RAINBANDS ARE CURRENTLY IMPACTING SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA AND MAY CONTINUE TO AFFECT THAT AREA FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 25/0900Z 20.2N 111.0W 45 KT 12HR VT 25/1800Z 21.3N 111.9W 50 KT 24HR VT 26/0600Z 22.9N 113.3W 45 KT 36HR VT 26/1800Z 24.3N 115.0W 35 KT 48HR VT 27/0600Z 25.2N 116.7W 30 KT...DISSIPATING 72HR VT 28/0600Z 26.0N 119.0W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW 96HR VT 29/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER PASCH/LANDSEA ** WTPZ21 KNHC 250838 *** TCMEP1 TROPICAL STORM EMILIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 16 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062006 0900 UTC TUE JUL 25 2006 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.2N 111.0W AT 25/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 320 DEGREES AT 6 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 995 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT....... 80NE 80SE 60SW 60NW. 12 FT SEAS..150NE 200SE 150SW 150NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.2N 111.0W AT 25/0900Z AT 25/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.9N 110.7W FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 21.3N 111.9W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 80NE 80SE 60SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z 22.9N 113.3W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z 24.3N 115.0W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 27/0600Z 25.2N 116.7W...DISSIPATING MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 28/0600Z 26.0N 119.0W...REMNANT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 29/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.2N 111.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 25/1500Z $$ FORECASTER PASCH/LANDSEA ** WTPA21 PHFO 250845 *** TCMCP1 TROPICAL STORM DANIEL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 34 NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP052006 0900 UTC TUE JUL 25 2006 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.2N 142.7W AT 25/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 45 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 6 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 999 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. 50 KT....... 30NE 25SE 25SW 30NW. 34 KT....... 65NE 60SE 60SW 65NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 65NE 55SE 55SW 65NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.2N 142.7W AT 25/0900Z AT 25/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.2N 142.4W FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 16.3N 143.8W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 25NE 20SE 20SW 25NW. 34 KT... 60NE 55SE 55SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z 16.6N 145.3W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 55NE 50SE 50SW 55NW. FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z 17.0N 146.7W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 45SE 45SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 27/0600Z 17.4N 148.0W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 45SE 45SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 28/0600Z 18.7N 153.0W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 45SE 45SW 50NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 29/0600Z 20.3N 157.8W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 30/0600Z 21.7N 164.0W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.2N 142.7W NEXT ADVISORY AT 25/1500Z $$ FORECASTER HOUSTON ** WTPQ20 BABJ 250800 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TY KAEMI 0605 (0605) INITIAL TIME 250800 UTC 00HR 24.5N 118.4E 975HPA 33M/S 30KTS 430KM 50KTS 100KM P12HR NW 20KM/H= ** WTPA41 PHFO 250912 *** TCDCP1 TROPICAL STORM DANIEL DISCUSSION NUMBER 34 NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP052006 1100 PM HST MON JUL 24 2006 THE 0409 AND 0521 UTC SSMI MICROWAVE PASSES ALONG WITH FIXES FROM JTWC...AFWA...SAB AND PHFO INDICATE THAT DANIEL HAS SLOWED AND WEAKENED THIS EVENING. THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER ALSO APPEARS TO BE PARTIALLY EXPOSED UNDER BROKEN CIRRUS DEBRIS CLOUDS. THE 0521 UTC SSMI 85-GHZ SHOWED THERE WAS NO DEEP CONVECTION REMAINING IN THE VICINITY OF DANIEL. DANIEL APPEARS TO BE DRAWING IN RELATIVELY COOLER AND DRIER LOW LEVEL AIR FROM THE BOUNDARY LAYER COOLER WATERS NORTH OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE. IN ADDITION TO 25 DEGREE CELSIUS SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES...THERE IS ALSO RATHER WEAK EASTERLY SHEAR OF LESS THAN 10 KT ACROSS DANIEL. THE 0600 UTC POSITION IS A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE SATELLITE FIX AGENCIES AND THE MICROWAVE FIXES. THE CURRENT INTENSITY FOR DANIEL IS SET AT 55 KT BASED ON A CI NUMBER OF 3.5 FROM PHFO...SAB AND JTWC. AFWA HAD CI OF 4.0 AND THE AODT HAD A CI OF 4.1. DANIEL/S INITIAL MOTION IS 270 DEGREES AT 6 KT. THIS HAS RESULTED IN A SLOWING OF THE FORECAST TRACK THROUGH THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THE CONSENSUS MODELS...GUNS...GUNA...AND CONU ARE SHOWING THE SYSTEM WILL ACCELERATE IN 72 HOURS. THEREFORE...THE 72 HOUR FORECAST IS ALMOST IDENTICAL TO THE ONE FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK. THE 96 AND 120 HOUR POSITION IS A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND THESE CONSENSUS MODELS. THE CURRENT INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON ADJUSTMENTS FOR THE WEAKER INITIAL INTENSITY AND THE SHIPS MODEL INTENSITY FORECAST. ALSO...THE FORECAST TRACK CONTINUES TO TAKE DANIEL OVER 25 DEGREES C WATER THROUGH AT LEAST 72 HOURS. THE TROPICAL STORM WILL LIKELY ENCOUNTER SLIGHTLY WARMER WATER AS IT NEARS THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS. THIS IS ALSO REFLECTED IN THE SHIPS MODEL INTENSITY FORECAST AT 96 AND 120 HOURS. THEREFORE...IT IS BEING MAINTAINED AS A MINIMAL TROPICAL STORM ON DAYS 4 AND 5. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 25/0900Z 16.2N 142.7W 55 KT 12HR VT 25/1800Z 16.3N 143.8W 50 KT 24HR VT 26/0600Z 16.6N 145.3W 45 KT 36HR VT 26/1800Z 17.0N 146.7W 40 KT 48HR VT 27/0600Z 17.4N 148.0W 40 KT 72HR VT 28/0600Z 18.7N 153.0W 40 KT 96HR VT 29/0600Z 20.3N 157.8W 35 KT 120HR VT 30/0600Z 21.7N 164.0W 35 KT $$ FORECASTER HOUSTON ** WTPQ20 BABJ 250900 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST STS KAEMI 0605 (0605) INITIAL TIME 250900 UTC 00HR 24.5N 118.2E 980HPA 30M/S 30KTS 400KM 50KTS 80KM P12HR NW 20KM/H P+24HR 27.4N 116.0E 996HPA 18M/S P+48HR 31.0N 116.2E 1000HPA 15M/S= ** WTJP31 RJTD 250900 *** WARNING 250900. WARNING VALID 260900. STORM WARNING. SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 0605 KAEMI (0605) 985 HPA AT 24.4N 118.2E TAIWAN STRAIT MOVING WEST 10 KNOTS. POSITION GOOD. MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 40 MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 220 MILES SOUTHWEST SEMICIRCLE AND 170 MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION FOR 260900UTC AT 26.0N 114.1E WITH 80 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 996 HPA. BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 250900 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME STS 0605 KAEMI (0605) ANALYSIS PSTN 250900UTC 24.4N 118.2E GOOD MOVE W 10KT PRES 985HPA MXWD 055KT 50KT 40NM 30KT 220NM SOUTHWEST 170NM NORTHEAST FORECAST 24HF 260900UTC 26.0N 114.1E 80NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION = ** WTPN32 PHNC 251000 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// REF/A/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN/PEARL HARBOR HI/240330JUL2006// AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL STORM 06E (EMILIA) WARNING NR 016 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 250600Z --- NEAR 20.2N 111.0W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 320 DEGREES AT 06 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 20.2N 111.0W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 251800Z --- 21.3N 111.9W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 060 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 260600Z --- 22.9N 113.3W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 261800Z --- 24.3N 115.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 09 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 270600Z --- 25.2N 116.7W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 280600Z --- 26.0N 119.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: 251000Z POSITION NEAR 20.6N 111.3W. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 06E (EMILIA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 170 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD OF CABO, SAN LUCAS, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 250600Z IS 19 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 251600Z, 252200Z, 260400Z AND 261000Z. REFER TO HURRICANE 05E (DANIEL) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PHNC) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.// ** WTPN31 PHNC 251000 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// REF/A/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN/PEARL HARBOR HI/250935JUL2006// AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL STORM 05E (DANIEL) WARNING NR 034 DOWNGRADED FROM HURRICANE 05E 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 250600Z --- NEAR 16.2N 142.7W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 06 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 065 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 16.2N 142.7W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 251800Z --- 16.3N 143.8W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 060 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 260600Z --- 16.6N 145.3W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 261800Z --- 17.0N 146.7W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 07 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 270600Z --- 17.4N 148.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 12 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 280600Z --- 18.7N 153.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 12 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 290600Z --- 20.3N 157.8W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 15 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 300600Z --- 21.7N 164.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT --- REMARKS: 251000Z POSITION NEAR 16.2N 143.1W. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 05E (DANIEL), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 750 NM EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD OF HILO, HAWAII, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 250600Z IS 24 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 251600Z, 252200Z, 260400Z AND 261000Z. REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 06E (EMILIA) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PHNC) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.// ** WTPH RPLL 250900 *** GALE WARNING NO.05 FOR STRONG WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SOUTHWEST MONSOON ISSUED AT 5:00PM TODAY, 25 JULY 2006 (VALID UNTIL THE NEXT WARNING TO BE ISSUED AT 5:00AM TOMORROW) THE SURGE OF STRONG WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SOUTHWEST MONSOON IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE WESTERN SEABOARD OF SOUTHERN LUZON. THE WESTERN SEABOARD OF SOUTHERN LUZON WILL EXPERIENCE OCCASIONAL TO FREQUENT RAINS. WINDS OF 45 TO 65 KPH (25 TO 35 KNOTS) AREA EXPECTED AND SEA CONDITIONS WILL BE ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH WITH WAVE HEIGHTS OF 3.0 TO 5.0 METERS. FISHING BOATS AND OTHER SMALL SEACRAFTS ARE ADVISED NOT TO VENTURE OUT INTO THE SEA WHILE BIGGER SEACRAFTS AREA ALERTED AGAINST MODERATE TO HIGH WAVES. WATCH FOR THE NEXT BULLETIN TO BE ISSUED AT 5:00AM TOMORROW. ** WTPQ20 BABJ 251000 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST STS KAEMI 0605 (0605) INITIAL TIME 251000 UTC 00HR 24.5N 118.1E 980HPA 30M/S 30KTS 400KM 50KTS 60KM P12HR W 15KM/H= ** WTSS20 VHHH 251045 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT 250900 UTC, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM KAEMI (0605) WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 980 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES OF TWO FOUR POINT FIVE DEGREES NORTH (24.5 N) ONE ONE EIGHT POINT TWO DEGREES EAST (118.2 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 9 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 50 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 40 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 20 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 200 NAUTICAL MILES OVER EASTERN SEMICIRCLE, 150 NAUTICAL MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 260900 UTC TWO SIX POINT SEVEN DEGREES NORTH (26.7 N) ONE ONE FIVE POINT ZERO DEGREES EAST (115.0 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 25 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 270900 UTC DISSIPATED OVER LAND. ** WTSS20 VHHH 251045 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT 250900 UTC, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM KAEMI (0605) WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 980 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES OF TWO FOUR POINT FIVE DEGREES NORTH (24.5 N) ONE ONE EIGHT POINT TWO DEGREES EAST (118.2 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 9 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 50 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 40 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 20 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 200 NAUTICAL MILES OVER EASTERN SEMICIRCLE, 150 NAUTICAL MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 260900 UTC TWO SIX POINT SEVEN DEGREES NORTH (26.7 N) ONE ONE FIVE POINT ZERO DEGREES EAST (115.0 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 25 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 270900 UTC DISSIPATED OVER LAND. ** WTPQ20 BABJ 251100 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST STS KAEMI 0605 (0605) INITIAL TIME 251100 UTC 00HR 24.4N 117.9E 985HPA 28M/S 30KTS 400KM 50KTS 60KM P12HR WNW 15KM/H=