** WTPQ20 BABJ 241200 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TY KAEMI 0605 (0605) INITIAL TIME 241200 UTC 00HR 22.3N 122.2E 960HPA 40M/S 30KTS 430KM 50KTS 120KM P12HR WNW 15KM/H P+24HR 24.0N 118.8E 970HPA 35M/S P+48HR 25.4N 115.9E 990HPA 23M/S P+72HR 30.0N 114.1E 998HPA 18M/S= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 241200 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TY 0605 KAEMI (0605) ANALYSIS PSTN 241200UTC 22.0N 122.2E FAIR MOVE NW 10KT PRES 960HPA MXWD 075KT 50KT 60NM 30KT 260NM SOUTH 150NM NORTH FORECAST 24HF 251200UTC 23.7N 118.3E 80NM 70% MOVE WNW 09KT PRES 975HPA MXWD 060KT 48HF 261200UTC 26.0N 115.1E 150NM 70% MOVE WNW 09KT PRES 992HPA MXWD 040KT 72HF 271200UTC 27.5N 113.4E 220NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION = ** WTJP21 RJTD 241200 *** WARNING 241200. WARNING VALID 251200. WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS. TYPHOON WARNING. TYPHOON 0605 KAEMI (0605) 960 HPA AT 22.0N 122.2E SOUTHEAST OF TAIWAN MOVING NORTHWEST 10 KNOTS. POSITION FAIR. MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 60 MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 260 MILES SOUTH SEMICIRCLE AND 150 MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION FOR 251200UTC AT 23.7N 118.3E WITH 80 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 975 HPA, MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. FORECAST POSITION FOR 261200UTC AT 26.0N 115.1E WITH 150 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 992 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION FOR 271200UTC AT 27.5N 113.4E WITH 220 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 996 HPA. BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ20 BABJ 241300 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TY KAEMI 0605 (0605) INITIAL TIME 241300 UTC 00HR 22.4N 122.1E 960HPA 40M/S 30KTS 430KM 50KTS 120KM P12HR WNW 15KM/H= ** WTPQ20 VHHH 241345 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT 241200 UTC, TYPHOON KAEMI (0605) WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 960 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 30 NAUTICAL MILES OF TWO TWO POINT FOUR DEGREES NORTH (22.4 N) ONE TWO TWO POINT ZERO DEGREES EAST (122.0 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE WEST-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 10 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 75 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 90 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 60 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 63 KNOT WINDS 30 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 300 NAUTICAL MILES OVER EASTERN SEMICIRCLE, 210 NAUTICAL MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 251200 UTC TWO THREE POINT SEVEN DEGREES NORTH (23.7 N) ONE ONE EIGHT POINT TWO DEGREES EAST (118.2 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 60 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 261200 UTC TWO FOUR POINT SEVEN DEGREES NORTH (24.7 N) ONE ONE FOUR POINT NINE DEGREES EAST (114.9 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 40 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 271200 UTC DISSIPATED OVER LAND. ** WTPQ20 BABJ 241400 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TY KAEMI 0605 (0605) INITIAL TIME 241400 UTC 00HR 22.6N 121.9E 960HPA 40M/S 30KTS 430KM 50KTS 120KM P12HR WNW 15KM/H= ** WTPA21 PHFO 241430 *** TCMCP1 HURRICANE DANIEL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 31 NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP052006 1500 UTC MON JUL 24 2006 HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.3N 140.8W AT 24/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 45 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 12 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 980 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 80 KT WITH GUSTS TO 100 KT. 64 KT....... 25NE 25SE 20SW 25NW. 50 KT....... 50NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT....... 80NE 80SE 70SW 80NW. 12 FT SEAS..350NE 300SE 250SW 300NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.3N 140.8W AT 24/1500Z AT 24/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.2N 140.4W FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 16.6N 142.2W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 25SE 20SW 25NW. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT... 80NE 80SE 70SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 17.1N 143.9W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 10SE 10SW 20NW. 50 KT... 45NE 45SE 35SW 45NW. 34 KT... 75NE 75SE 60SW 75NW. FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 17.5N 145.6W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 75NE 75SE 50SW 75NW. FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 17.9N 147.4W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 75NE 75SE 50SW 75NW. FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z 18.7N 151.2W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 75NE 75SE 50SW 75NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 28/1200Z 19.6N 154.9W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 29/1200Z 21.3N 159.7W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.3N 140.8W NEXT ADVISORY AT 24/2100Z $$ FORECASTER HOUSTON ** WTPA31 PHFO 241430 *** TCPCP1 BULLETIN HURRICANE DANIEL ADVISORY NUMBER 31 NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP052006 500 AM HST MON JUL 24 2006 ...HURRICANE DANIEL ENTERS THE CENTRAL PACIFIC... AT 500 AM HST...1500Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE DANIEL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 140.8 WEST OR ABOUT 970 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF HILO...HAWAII AND ABOUT 1170 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF HONOLULU...HAWAII. DANIEL IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH. DANIEL IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SLIGHTLY SLOWER LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 90 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 30 MILES FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 90 MILES. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 980 MB...28.94 INCHES. ALL INTERESTS IN AND AROUND THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF DANIEL THIS WEEK. REPEATING THE 500 AM HST POSITION...16.3 N...140.8 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...980 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER AT 1100 AM HST. $$ FORECASTER HOUSTON ** WTPZ21 KNHC 241434 *** TCMEP1 TROPICAL STORM EMILIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 13 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062006 1500 UTC MON JUL 24 2006 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.7N 110.1W AT 24/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 994 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. 50 KT....... 30NE 30SE 45SW 30NW. 34 KT....... 60NE 60SE 90SW 60NW. 12 FT SEAS..140NE 180SE 70SW 140NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.7N 110.1W AT 24/1500Z AT 24/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.5N 109.7W FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 19.2N 111.2W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 45SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 90SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 20.1N 112.7W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 15SE 15SW 15NW. 50 KT... 45NE 45SE 60SW 45NW. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 120SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 21.3N 114.5W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 15SE 15SW 15NW. 50 KT... 45NE 45SE 60SW 45NW. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 120SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 22.4N 116.4W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 35NE 35SE 40SW 35NW. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 120SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z 24.0N 119.0W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 28/1200Z 25.0N 122.0W...REMNANT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 29/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.7N 110.1W NEXT ADVISORY AT 24/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BROWN/STEWART ** WTPZ41 KNHC 241435 *** TCDEP1 TROPICAL STORM EMILIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 13 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062006 800 AM PDT MON JUL 24 2006 INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS THAT EMILIA HAS NOT STRENGTHENED. IN FACT...SUBJECTIVE DVORAK DATA T NUMBERS ARE DOWN TO T 3.0...45 KT...FROM SAB AND TAFB...WHILE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES REMAIN 55 KT FROM ALL AGENCIES BECAUSE OF DVORAK CONSTRAINTS. THE ADVISORY INTENSITY HAS BEEN DECREASED TO 55 KT. THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 290/8 KT. THE FORECAST TRACK REASONING REMAINS UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUSLY ADVISORY...AS EMILIA CONTINUES TO BE STEERED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD BY A STRONG MID-TO-UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES. THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED SOON TURN MORE NORTHWESTWARD AS IT REACHES THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THIS RIDGE. THE DYNAMICAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND FOLLOWS THE CONU CONSENSUS MODEL. EMILIA IS FORECAST TO REMAIN UNDER A FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT AND OVER WARM WATER FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST INDICATES STRENGTHENING...BUT NOT AS MUCH AS THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. THE FORECAST STILL CALLS FOR EMILIA TO BECOME A HURRICANE. THEREAFTER...EMILIA IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER PROGRESSIVELY COOLER WATER AND INTO MORE STABLE ENVIRONMENT AND INDUCE RAPID WEAKENING. THE INTENSITY FORECAST FOLLOWS THIS SCENARIO AND INDICATES THAT EMILIA WILL BECOME A REMNANT LOW IN ABOUT 4 DAYS. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS A LITTLE ABOVE THE SHIPS MODEL FORECAST FOR THE FIRST 36 HOURS...BUT IS SIMILAR TO SHIPS DURING THE WEAKENING PORTION OF THE FORECAST. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 24/1500Z 18.7N 110.1W 55 KT 12HR VT 25/0000Z 19.2N 111.2W 60 KT 24HR VT 25/1200Z 20.1N 112.7W 70 KT 36HR VT 26/0000Z 21.3N 114.5W 65 KT 48HR VT 26/1200Z 22.4N 116.4W 55 KT 72HR VT 27/1200Z 24.0N 119.0W 35 KT 96HR VT 28/1200Z 25.0N 122.0W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW 120HR VT 29/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER BROWN/STEWART ** WTPH20 RPMM 241200 *** T T T TYPHOON WARNING 15 AT 1200 24 JULY TYPHOON (KAEMI)(0605) WAS LOCATED BY PAGASA RADAR ,SATELLITE AND SURFACE DATA AT TWO TWO POINT ZERO NORTH ONE TWO TWO POINT THREE EAST MOVING WEST NORTHWEST AT ZERO FOUR METERS PER SECOND ROUGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS WITHIN THREE FIVE ZERO KILOMETERS SOUTH SEMI-CIRCLE TWO FIVE ZERO KILOMETERS ELSEWHERE ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE NINE SIX SEVEN HECTOPASCAL MAXIMUM WINDS FOUR ONE METERS PER SECOND NEAR CENTER THREE THREE METERS PER SECOND WITHIN ONE FIVE ZERO KILOMETERS RADIUS ONE THREE METERS PER SECOND WITHIN THREE FIVE ZERO KILOMETERS SOUTH SEMI-CIRCLE TWO FIVE ZERO KILOMETERS ELSEWHERE FORECAST POSITIONS AT 251200 TWO FOUR POINT ONE NORTH ONE ONE NINE POINT ZERO EAST AT 261200 TWO FOUR POINT SIX NORTH ONE ONE FOUR POINT NINE EAST ALL SHIPS WITHIN TYPHOON AREA ARE REQUESTED TO SEND THREE HOURLY WEATHER REPORTS TO WEATHER MANILA PD WEATHER MANILA= ** WTPA41 PHFO 241510 *** TCDCP1 HURRICANE DANIEL DISCUSSION NUMBER 31 NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP052006 500 AM HST MON JUL 24 2006 BASED ON EXTRAPOLATION FROM A 0901 UTC TRMM MICROWAVE IMAGERY PASS RECEIVED FROM THE NRL AND FNMOC WEB SITES...AND IMAGERY FROM THE GOES-WEST SATELLITE...ALL AGENCIES HAVE AGREED THAT DANIEL CROSSED 140W LONGITUDE INTO THE CENTRAL PACIFIC PRIOR TO 1200 UTC. UNFORTUNATELY...WITH THE LOSS OF THE HURRICANE EYE SEVERAL HOURS AGO...THE EXACT POSITION OF THE HURRICANE IS VERY DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE AT THIS TIME. THE INITIAL MOTION IS 285 DEG AT 12 KT. THE FORECAST TRACK FOR DANIEL IS AN UPDATE OF THE ORIGINAL 0600 UTC NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER...NHC...PROJECTION. SLIGHT MODIFICATION OF THE TRACK WAS MADE NEAR THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS ON DAYS 4 AND 5. THIS TRACK CONTINUES TO FOLLOW THE TREND OF THE CONSENSUS MODELS...GUNS...GUNA AND CONU. HOWEVER...THE TRACK IS BEING KEPT SLIGHTLY TO THE RIGHT OF THESE CONSENSUS MODELS. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE UKMET AND NOGAPS TRACK FORECASTS HAVE BEEN SHOWING THE BEST SKILL SO FAR FOR THE TRACK OF DANIEL ACCORDING TO NHC. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS A BLEND OF T-NUMBERS RANGING FROM 3.5 AT JTWC TO 5.0 AT SAB AND AFWA. CPHC INDICATED A T NUMBER OF 4.5. THE PREVIOUS WEAKENING TREND MAY HAVE BEEN SLOWED SLIGHTLY...SINCE THERE WAS A SLIGHT COOLING OF THE CLOUD TOPS. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS DROPPED SLIGHTLY TO 80 KT FOR THIS PACKAGE. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE CHARTS INDICATE 25 DEGREE C SURFACE WATER ALONG THE PROJECTED PATH OF DANIEL DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. HOWEVER...THE WATERS APPEAR TO BE SLIGHTLY WARMER IN THE VICINITY OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS. THE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IN THE VICINITY OF DANIEL REMAINS RELATIVELY LOW AT THIS TIME. THIS SHEAR APPEARS TO BE ABOUT 9 KT FROM THE EAST ACCORDING TO THE SHIPS MODEL 0-HOUR COMPUTES. THE UPPER-LEVEL EASTERLIES SOUTH OF A RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF DANIEL ARE PROJECTED TO SPREAD WESTWARD WITH THE HURRICANE. HOWEVER...THE UW/CIMSS WEB SITE INDICATES THERE IS STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER-LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER TROUGH TO THE NORTHWEST. THE GFS MODEL INDICATES THAT THIS VERTICAL SHEAR WILL DECREASE AS DANIEL APPROACHES THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS. THE PREVIOUS NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS THEREFORE BEING MAINTAINED AT THIS TIME. THIS FORECAST WOULD BRING DANIEL NEAR THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS AS A RELATIVELY STRONG TROPICAL STORM LATER THIS WEEK. THE RADII OF 12 FOOT SEAS WERE DECREASED SLIGHTLY IN THE PACKAGE DUE TO THE WEAKENING OF DANIEL DURING THE PAST 24 HOURS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 24/1500Z 16.3N 140.8W 80 KT 12HR VT 25/0000Z 16.6N 142.2W 75 KT 24HR VT 25/1200Z 17.1N 143.9W 65 KT 36HR VT 26/0000Z 17.5N 145.6W 60 KT 48HR VT 26/1200Z 17.9N 147.4W 55 KT 72HR VT 27/1200Z 18.7N 151.2W 50 KT 96HR VT 28/1200Z 19.6N 154.9W 50 KT 120HR VT 29/1200Z 21.3N 159.7W 50 KT $$ FORECASTER HOUSTON ** WTPN31 PGTW 241500 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TYPHOON 06W (KAEMI) WARNING NR 027 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 241200Z --- NEAR 22.3N 122.3E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 310 DEGREES AT 08 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER REPEAT POSIT: 22.3N 122.3E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 250000Z --- 23.3N 120.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 251200Z --- 24.1N 118.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 260000Z --- 25.2N 117.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 09 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 261200Z --- 26.7N 116.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 241500Z POSITION NEAR 22.6N 121.9E. TYPHOON (TY) 06W (KAEMI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 110 NM EAST OF KAOHSIUNG, TAIWAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 241200Z IS 24 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 242100Z, 250300Z, 250900Z AND 251500Z.// ** WTPQ20 BABJ 241500 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TY KAEMI 0605 (0605) INITIAL TIME 241500 UTC 00HR 22.8N 121.7E 960HPA 40M/S 30KTS 430KM 50KTS 120KM P12HR WNW 15KM/H= ** WTJP31 RJTD 241500 *** WARNING 241500. WARNING VALID 251500. TYPHOON WARNING. TYPHOON 0605 KAEMI (0605) 960 HPA AT 22.3N 121.7E SOUTHEAST OF TAIWAN MOVING NORTHWEST 09 KNOTS. POSITION FAIR. MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 60 MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 260 MILES SOUTH SEMICIRCLE AND 150 MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION FOR 251500UTC AT 23.9N 117.7E WITH 80 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 975 HPA, MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 241500 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TY 0605 KAEMI (0605) ANALYSIS PSTN 241500UTC 22.3N 121.7E FAIR MOVE NW 09KT PRES 960HPA MXWD 075KT 50KT 60NM 30KT 260NM SOUTH 150NM NORTH FORECAST 24HF 251500UTC 23.9N 117.7E 80NM 70% MOVE WNW 10KT PRES 975HPA MXWD 060KT 45HF 261200UTC 26.0N 115.1E 150NM 70% MOVE WNW 09KT PRES 992HPA MXWD 040KT 69HF 271200UTC 27.5N 113.4E 220NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION = ** WTPQ20 BABJ 241600 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TY KAEMI 0605 (0605) INITIAL TIME 241600 UTC 00HR 23.0N 121.5E 960HPA 40M/S 30KTS 430KM 50KTS 120KM P12HR NW 20KM/H= ** WTPN32 PHNC 241600 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// REF/A/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN/PEARL HARBOR HI/241530JUL2006// AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL STORM 06E (EMILIA) WARNING NR 013 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 241200Z --- NEAR 18.5N 109.7W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 290 DEGREES AT 08 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 065 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 18.5N 109.7W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 250000Z --- 19.2N 111.2W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 251200Z --- 20.1N 112.7W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 260000Z --- 21.3N 114.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 10 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 261200Z --- 22.4N 116.4W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 065 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 271200Z --- 24.0N 119.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 07 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 281200Z --- 25.0N 122.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: 241600Z POSITION NEAR 18.7N 110.2W. AT 241200Z TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED 569 NM WNW OF ACAPULCO. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 241200Z IS 16 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 242200Z, 250400Z, 251000Z AND 251600Z. REFER TO HURRICANE 05E (DANIEL) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PHNC) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.// ** WTPN31 PHNC 241600 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// REF/A/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN/PEARL HARBOR HI/241535JUL2006// AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. HURRICANE 05E (DANIEL) WARNING NR 031 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 241200Z --- NEAR 16.2N 140.4W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 285 DEGREES AT 12 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 16.2N 140.4W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 250000Z --- 16.6N 142.2W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 251200Z --- 17.1N 143.9W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 260000Z --- 17.5N 145.6W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 09 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 261200Z --- 17.9N 147.4W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 065 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 271200Z --- 18.7N 151.2W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 060 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 09 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 281200Z --- 19.6N 154.9W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 060 KT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 12 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 291200Z --- 21.3N 159.7W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 060 KT --- REMARKS: 241600Z POSITION NEAR 16.3N 141.0W. AT 241200Z HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED 865 NM ESE OF HILO. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 241200Z IS 34 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 242200Z, 250400Z, 251000Z AND 251600Z. REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 06E (EMILIA) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PHNC) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.// ** WTPQ20 BABJ 241600 CCA *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TY KAEMI 0605 (0605) INITIAL TIME 241600 UTC 00HR 23.0N 121.3E 960HPA 40M/S 30KTS 430KM 50KTS 120KM P12HR NW 20KM/H= ** WTPQ20 VHHH 241645 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT 241500 UTC, TYPHOON KAEMI (0605) WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 960 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 30 NAUTICAL MILES OF TWO TWO POINT EIGHT DEGREES NORTH (22.8 N) ONE TWO ONE POINT SIX DEGREES EAST (121.6 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE WEST-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 10 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 75 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 90 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 60 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 63 KNOT WINDS 30 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 300 NAUTICAL MILES OVER EASTERN SEMICIRCLE, 210 NAUTICAL MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 251500 UTC TWO FOUR POINT ONE DEGREES NORTH (24.1 N) ONE ONE SEVEN POINT NINE DEGREES EAST (117.9 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 60 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 261500 UTC TWO FIVE POINT ZERO DEGREES NORTH (25.0 N) ONE ONE FOUR POINT SIX DEGREES EAST (114.6 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 40 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 271500 UTC DISSIPATED OVER LAND. ** WTNT80 EGRR 241718 *** MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 24.07.2006 TROPICAL STORM EMILIA ANALYSED POSITION : 18.4N 109.4W ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP062006 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 24.07.2006 18.4N 109.4W MODERATE 00UTC 25.07.2006 19.3N 110.6W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 25.07.2006 20.4N 112.2W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 26.07.2006 21.9N 114.0W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 26.07.2006 23.7N 116.2W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 27.07.2006 24.6N 118.4W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 27.07.2006 25.3N 119.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 28.07.2006 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH HURRICANE DANIEL ANALYSED POSITION : 16.2N 140.3W ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP052006 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 24.07.2006 16.2N 140.3W MODERATE 00UTC 25.07.2006 16.4N 142.8W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 25.07.2006 17.0N 144.8W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 26.07.2006 17.4N 147.0W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 26.07.2006 17.8N 148.9W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 27.07.2006 18.2N 150.6W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 27.07.2006 18.0N 152.3W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 28.07.2006 18.3N 154.2W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 28.07.2006 18.5N 158.5W MODERATE WEAKENING RAPIDLY 00UTC 29.07.2006 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 241718