** WTJP21 RJTD 240600 *** WARNING 240600. WARNING VALID 250600. WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS. TYPHOON WARNING. TYPHOON 0605 KAEMI (0605) 955 HPA AT 21.3N 123.0E SEA SOUTH OF OKINAWA MOVING NORTHWEST 10 KNOTS. POSITION FAIR. MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 60 MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 260 MILES SOUTH SEMICIRCLE AND 150 MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION FOR 250600UTC AT 23.0N 119.1E WITH 80 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 965 HPA, MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. FORECAST POSITION FOR 260600UTC AT 24.7N 115.9E WITH 150 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 990 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. FORECAST POSITION FOR 270600UTC AT 26.5N 113.4E WITH 220 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 996 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 240600 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TY 0605 KAEMI (0605) ANALYSIS PSTN 240600UTC 21.3N 123.0E FAIR MOVE NW 10KT PRES 955HPA MXWD 080KT 50KT 60NM 30KT 260NM SOUTH 150NM NORTH FORECAST 24HF 250600UTC 23.0N 119.1E 80NM 70% MOVE WNW 09KT PRES 965HPA MXWD 070KT 48HF 260600UTC 24.7N 115.9E 150NM 70% MOVE WNW 08KT PRES 990HPA MXWD 045KT 72HF 270600UTC 26.5N 113.4E 220NM 70% MOVE WNW 07KT PRES 996HPA MXWD 040KT = ** WTIN20 DEMS 240653 *** TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK ------------------------ DEMS -RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONES NEW DELHI 24-07-2006(.) TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NORTH INDIAN OCEAN (THE BAY OF BENGAL AND THE ARABIAN SEA ) VALID FOR NEXT 24 HOURS ISSUED AT 0600 UTC (.) CONVECTIVE CLOUDS ARE SEEN OVER NORTH ARABIAN SEA CENTRAL BAY OF BENGAL AND ANDAMAN SEA (.) RIDGE LINE AT 200 HPA RUNS ALONG 33 DEG. NORTH OVER THE INDIAN REGION (.) MSG OVER ????? ** WTKO20 RKSL 240600 *** KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 11 NAME TY 0605 KAEMI ANALYSIS POSITION 240600UTC 21.2N 123.1E MOVEMENT NW 10KT PRES/VMAX 955HPA 76KT FORECAST 24HR POSITION 250600UTC 23.4N 120.4E WITHIN 80NM PRES/VMAX 965HPA 68KT 48HR POSITION 260600UTC 25.0N 117.0E WITHIN 135NM PRES/VMAX 985HPA 49KT 72HR POSITION 270600UTC 27.1N 114.5E WITHIN 0NM PRES 996HPA KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION. ** WTPQ30 RJTD 240600 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING REASONING NO.13 FOR TY 0605 KAEMI (0605) 1.GENERAL COMMENTS REASONING OF PROGNOSIS THIS TIME IS SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS ONE. POSITION FORECAST IS MAINLY BASED ON NWP AND PERSISTENCY. 2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION NOTHING PARTICULAR TO EXPLAIN. 3.MOTION FORECAST POSITION ACCURACY AT 240600 UTC IS FAIR. TY WILL MOVE AT THE SAME SPEED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TY WILL MOVE WEST-NORTHWEST FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. 4.INTENSITY FORECAST TY WILL KEEP PRESENT INTENSITY FOR NEXT 24 HOURS. FI-NUMBER WILL BE 4.5 AFTER 24 HOURS.= ** WTPN32 PHNC 240400 COR *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// REF/A/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN/PEARL HARBOR HI/240330JUL2006// AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL STORM 06E (EMILIA) WARNING NR 011A CORRECTED 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 240000Z --- NEAR 18.1N 108.4W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 285 DEGREES AT 07 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 18.1N 108.4W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 241200Z --- 18.6N 109.9W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 250000Z --- 19.4N 111.3W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 251200Z --- 20.4N 112.7W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 08 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 260000Z --- 21.4N 114.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 270000Z --- 23.5N 117.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 07 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 280000Z --- 25.0N 119.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 290000Z --- 27.0N 122.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 03 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: 240400Z POSITION NEAR 18.3N 108.9W. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 240000Z IS 16 FEET. AT 240000Z, TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED 152 NM ESE OF SOCORRO ISLAND. NEXT WARNINGS AT 241000Z, 241600Z, 242200Z AND 250400Z. REFER TO HURRICANE 05E (DANIEL) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PHNC) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES. JUSTIFICATION FOR CORRECTION: CORRECTED REFERENCE DTG.// ** WTPQ20 BABJ 240600 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TY KAEMI 0605 (0605) INITIAL TIME 240600 UTC 00HR 21.7N 123.0E 960HPA 40M/S 30KTS 430KM 50KTS 120KM P12HR NW 20KM/H P+24HR 23.6N 120.1E 970HPA 35M/S P+48HR 25.7N 117.7E 990HPA 23M/S P+72HR 29.6N 115.9E 998HPA 15M/S= ** WTPQ20 BABJ 240700 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TY KAEMI 0605 (0605) INITIAL TIME 240700 UTC 00HR 21.9N 122.8E 960HPA 40M/S 30KTS 430KM 50KTS 120KM P12HR NW 20KM/H= ** WTPQ20 VHHH 240745 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT 240600 UTC, TYPHOON KAEMI (0605) WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 960 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 30 NAUTICAL MILES OF TWO ONE POINT SIX DEGREES NORTH (21.6 N) ONE TWO TWO POINT NINE DEGREES EAST (122.9 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHWEST OR WEST-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 11 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 75 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 120 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 60 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 63 KNOT WINDS 30 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 360 NAUTICAL MILES OVER EASTERN SEMICIRCLE, 240 NAUTICAL MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 250600 UTC TWO THREE POINT FIVE DEGREES NORTH (23.5 N) ONE ONE NINE POINT ONE DEGREES EAST (119.1 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 60 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 260600 UTC TWO FOUR POINT THREE DEGREES NORTH (24.3 N) ONE ONE FIVE POINT NINE DEGREES EAST (115.9 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 50 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 270600 UTC DISSIPATED OVER LAND. ** WTPZ41 KNHC 240829 *** TCDEP1 TROPICAL STORM EMILIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 12 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062006 200 AM PDT MON JUL 24 2006 INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE CHANGE IN THE ORGANIZATION OF EMILIA OVER THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS. ACCORDINGLY...THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS AT 60 KT BASED ON CONSENSUS SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM ALL THREE AGENCIES. EMILIA IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER WARM WATERS FOR THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. ADDITIONALLY...DYNAMICAL MODELS SUGGEST THAT UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW WILL INCREASE TO THE NORTH OF THE CYCLONE AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES THIS MAY ALREADY BE TAKING PLACE. ACCORDINGLY... THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR SOME INTENSIFICATION DURING THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS. THEREAFTER...THE WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR STRENGTHENING SHUTS AS THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER PROGRESSIVELY COOLER WATERS AND ENCOUNTER A MORE STABLE AIRMASS. THESE TWO NEGATIVE FACTORS SHOULD BRING ABOUT RAPID WEAKENING WITH EMILIA EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW BY 96 HOURS AND DISSIPATE BY 120 HOURS. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT INTENSITY GUIDANCE HAS BEEN TRENDING WEAKER BUT THE OFFICIAL FORECAST MAINTAINS CONTINUITY BASED ON THE INCREASING OUTFLOW. THE INITIAL MOTION CONTINUES TO BE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OR 285/8. THE STEERING IS DOMINATED BY A STRONG DEEP-LAYERED RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES. MOST OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS INDICATE THAT EMILIA WILL GRADUALLY TURN MORE NORTHWESTWARD DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS THE CYCLONE REACHES THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THIS RIDGE. AN ALTERNATIVE SOLUTION IS PROVIDED BY THE GFDL AND CANADIAN MODELS WHICH SHOW A MORE NORTHWARD MOTION DUE TO A STRONGER MID-LEVEL RIDGE CURRENTLY EXTENDING ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC SOUTHEAST OF EMILIA. HOWEVER...BOTH OF THESE MODELS FAIL TO SHOW THE CURRENT WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION SO IT IS ASSUMED THAT THE LATTER RIDGE IS ALREADY TOO STRONG WITHIN THESE MODELS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF THE REMAINING GUIDANCE AND IS ESSENTIALLY UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 24/0900Z 18.4N 109.7W 60 KT 12HR VT 24/1800Z 18.8N 110.8W 65 KT 24HR VT 25/0600Z 19.8N 112.3W 80 KT 36HR VT 25/1800Z 20.8N 113.7W 80 KT 48HR VT 26/0600Z 21.8N 115.0W 65 KT 72HR VT 27/0600Z 23.8N 118.0W 40 KT 96HR VT 28/0600Z 25.5N 121.0W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW 120HR VT 29/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER RHOME/PASCH ** WTPZ21 KNHC 240829 *** TCMEP1 TROPICAL STORM EMILIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 12 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062006 0900 UTC MON JUL 24 2006 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.4N 109.7W AT 24/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 991 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT. 50 KT....... 30NE 30SE 45SW 30NW. 34 KT....... 60NE 60SE 90SW 60NW. 12 FT SEAS..140NE 100SE 70SW 140NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.4N 109.7W AT 24/0900Z AT 24/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.3N 109.2W FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 18.8N 110.8W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 10NE 10SE 10SW 10NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 50SW 40NW. 34 KT... 75NE 75SE 100SW 75NW. FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 19.8N 112.3W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 15SE 15SW 15NW. 50 KT... 45NE 45SE 60SW 45NW. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 120SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 20.8N 113.7W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 15SE 15SW 15NW. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW. 34 KT...100NE 100SE 100SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z 21.8N 115.0W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 45NE 45SE 45SW 45NW. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 90SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 27/0600Z 23.8N 118.0W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 75NE 75SE 75SW 75NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 28/0600Z 25.5N 121.0W...REMNANT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 29/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.4N 109.7W NEXT ADVISORY AT 24/1500Z $$ FORECASTER RHOME ** WTPZ21 KNHC 240830 *** TCMEP1 TROPICAL STORM EMILIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 12 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062006 0900 UTC MON JUL 24 2006 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.4N 109.7W AT 24/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 991 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT. 50 KT....... 30NE 30SE 45SW 30NW. 34 KT....... 60NE 60SE 90SW 60NW. 12 FT SEAS..140NE 100SE 70SW 140NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.4N 109.7W AT 24/0900Z AT 24/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.3N 109.2W FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 18.8N 110.8W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 10NE 10SE 10SW 10NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 50SW 40NW. 34 KT... 75NE 75SE 100SW 75NW. FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 19.8N 112.3W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 15SE 15SW 15NW. 50 KT... 45NE 45SE 60SW 45NW. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 120SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 20.8N 113.7W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 15SE 15SW 15NW. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW. 34 KT...100NE 100SE 100SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z 21.8N 115.0W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 45NE 45SE 45SW 45NW. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 90SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 27/0600Z 23.8N 118.0W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 75NE 75SE 75SW 75NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 28/0600Z 25.5N 121.0W...REMNANT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 29/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.4N 109.7W NEXT ADVISORY AT 24/1500Z $$ FORECASTER RHOME/PASCH ** WTPZ45 KNHC 240831 *** TCDEP5 HURRICANE DANIEL DISCUSSION NUMBER 30 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052006 200 AM PDT MON JUL 24 2006 THE EYE DISAPPEARED ON GEOSTATIONARY IMAGERY AROUND 0100 UTC. HOWEVER...THE SYSTEM STILL HAS A SYMMETRICAL PRESENTATION WITH FAIRLY COLD CENTRAL CONVECTION. DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGE FROM 77 TO 90 KT AND THE ADVISORY INTENSITY IS SET AT 85 KT. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ALONG THE PROJECTED PATH OF DANIEL DO NOT CHANGE MUCH OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AND HOVER AROUND 25 DEG C...ALTHOUGH THE WATERS DO WARM A LITTLE NEAR THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS. HOWEVER THE TROPICAL CYCLONE IS LIKELY TO ENCOUNTER A SOMEWHAT MORE STABLE AIR MASS AND LOWER MID-TROPOSPHERIC HUMIDITIES OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. ALSO...THE EVOLUTION OF VERTICAL SHEAR ON DANIEL IS AN IMPORTANT FACTOR. CURRENTLY...UPPER-LEVEL EASTERLIES AND WEAK SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH A RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF DANIEL ARE SPREADING WESTWARD WITH THE HURRICANE...BUT THERE IS STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER-LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER TROUGH TO THE NORTHWEST. THE GFS 200 MB WIND FORECAST INDICATES THAT...OVER THE FORECAST PERIOD...THE UPPER RIDGE AND ASSOCIATED EASTERLIES WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD WESTWARD IN TANDEM WITH DANIEL AND THE UPPER-LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLIES ACROSS THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS WILL WEAKEN AS THE RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE AREA. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT GLOBAL MODELS STILL HAVE DIFFICULTY IN ACCURATELY FORECASTING UPPER-TROPOSPHERIC TROPICAL FLOWS. HOWEVER IF THE GFS SCENARIO WERE TO VERIFY...VERTICAL SHEAR WOULD REMAIN LOW AND THE MAIN FACTORS THAT WOULD CAUSE WEAKENING OF DANIEL WILL BE THERMODYNAMIC. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS A LITTLE ABOVE THE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE CONSENSUS AND IS SIMILAR TO THAT FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. DANIEL COULD STILL BE A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE VICINITY OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS IN 4-5 DAYS. INITIAL MOTION IS A LITTLE SLOWER THAN BEFORE...285/13. DYNAMICAL MODELS GENERALLY CALL FOR A SLOWING OF FORWARD SPEED OVER THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS AND SO DOES THE OFFICIAL FORECAST. THE GFS SHOWS DANIEL MAKING LITTLE WESTWARD PROGRESS AFTER CROSSING 140W...AND ESSENTIALLY DISSIPATES THE CYCLONE IN 4-5 DAYS. THIS SOLUTION CANNOT BE CONSIDERED REALISTIC AT THIS TIME. ALTHOUGH IT IS LIKELY THAT DANIEL WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD IN THE FLOW TO THE SOUTH OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE...A MID-TROPOSPHERIC LOW IN THE VICINITY OF 30N150W MIGHT BE A FACTOR IN THE FUTURE PATH OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE. THIS FEATURE COULD INDUCE A MORE NORTHWARD MOTION A FEW DAYS FROM NOW. THE CURRENT THINKING IS THAT ENOUGH OF A RIDGE...ALBEIT A NARROW ONE...WILL PREVAIL BETWEEN THE LOW AND DANIEL SO THE TRACK WILL CONTINUE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE AND SLIGHTLY TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE GUNA CONSENSUS. DANIEL HAS ALMOST REACHED 140W LONGITUDE...AND IT SHOULD MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE BASIN BY 1200 UTC TODAY. THEREFORE THE NEXT...1500 UTC...ADVISORY PACKAGE WILL BE ISSUED BY THE CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER. FORECAST/ADVISORIES WILL BE ISSUED UNDER WMO HEADER WTPA21 PHFO AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER HNLTCMCP1. PUBLIC ADVISORIES WILL BE ISSUED UNDER WMO HEADER WTPA31 PHFO AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER HNLTCPCP1. TROPICAL CYCLONE DISCUSSIONS WILL BE ISSUED UNDER WMO HEADER WTPA41 PHFO AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER HNLTCDCP1. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 24/0900Z 16.1N 139.8W 85 KT 12HR VT 24/1800Z 16.5N 141.2W 80 KT 24HR VT 25/0600Z 16.9N 142.8W 75 KT 36HR VT 25/1800Z 17.3N 144.5W 65 KT 48HR VT 26/0600Z 17.7N 146.2W 60 KT 72HR VT 27/0600Z 18.5N 150.0W 55 KT 96HR VT 28/0600Z 19.5N 154.0W 50 KT 120HR VT 29/0600Z 21.0N 158.5W 50 KT $$ FORECASTER PASCH ** WTPZ25 KNHC 240831 *** TCMEP5 HURRICANE DANIEL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 30 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052006 0900 UTC MON JUL 24 2006 HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.1N 139.8W AT 24/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 13 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 975 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 85 KT WITH GUSTS TO 105 KT. 64 KT....... 25NE 25SE 20SW 25NW. 50 KT....... 50NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT....... 80NE 80SE 70SW 80NW. 12 FT SEAS..420NE 360SE 300SW 360NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.1N 139.8W AT 24/0900Z AT 24/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.0N 139.2W FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 16.5N 141.2W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 25SE 20SW 25NW. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT... 80NE 80SE 70SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 16.9N 142.8W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 25SE 20SW 25NW. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT... 80NE 80SE 70SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 17.3N 144.5W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 75NE 75SE 50SW 75NW. FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z 17.7N 146.2W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 75NE 75SE 50SW 75NW. FORECAST VALID 27/0600Z 18.5N 150.0W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 75NE 75SE 50SW 75NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 28/0600Z 19.5N 154.0W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 29/0600Z 21.0N 158.5W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.1N 139.8W NEXT ADVISORY AT 24/1500Z BY THE CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER $$ FORECASTER PASCH ** WTPN31 PGTW 240900 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TYPHOON 06W (KAEMI) WARNING NR 026 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 240600Z --- NEAR 21.8N 122.9E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 300 DEGREES AT 10 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER REPEAT POSIT: 21.8N 122.9E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 241800Z --- 22.9N 121.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 250600Z --- 23.6N 119.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 251800Z --- 24.3N 117.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 07 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 260600Z --- 25.3N 116.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 270600Z --- 27.5N 114.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 240900Z POSITION NEAR 22.1N 122.4E. TYPHOON (TY) 06W (KAEMI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 155 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF KAOHSIUNG, TAIWAN, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 240600Z IS 24 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 241500Z, 242100Z, 250300Z AND 250900Z.// ** WTPQ20 BABJ 240800 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TY KAEMI 0605 (0605) INITIAL TIME 240800 UTC 00HR 22.1N 122.6E 960HPA 40M/S 30KTS 430KM 50KTS 120KM P12HR NW 20KM/H= ** WTPQ20 BABJ 240900 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TY KAEMI 0605 (0605) INITIAL TIME 240900 UTC 00HR 22.1N 122.5E 960HPA 40M/S 30KTS 430KM 50KTS 120KM P12HR WNW 15KM/H= ** WTPH20 RPMM 240600 *** TTT TYPHO0N WARNING 14 AT 0600 24 JULY TYPHOON (KAEMI) (0605) WAS LOCATED BY PAGASA RADAR SATELLITE AND SURFACE DATA AT TWO ONE POINT TWO NORTH ONE TWO THREE POINT ZERO EAST MOVING WEST NORTHWEST AT ZERO FOUR METERS PER SECOND ROUGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS WITHIN THREE FIVE ZERO KILOMETERS SOUTH SEMI-CIRCLE TWO FIVE ZERO KILOMETERS ELSEWHERE ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE NINE SIX THREE HECTOPASCALS MAXIMUM WINDS FOUR ONE METERS PER SECOND NEAR CENTER THREE THREE METERS PER SECOND WITHIN THREE FIVE ZERO KILOMETERS SOUTH SEMI-CIRCLE TWO FIVE ZERO KILOMETERS ELSEWHERE FORECAST POSITIONS AT 250600 TWO THREE POINT ONE NORTH ONE ONE NINE POINT FIVE EAST AT 260600 TWO FIVE POINT FOUR NORTH ONE ONE SIX POINT ONE EAST ALL SHIPS WITHIN TYPHOON AREA ARE REQUESTED TO SEND THREE HOURLY WEATHER REPORTS TO WEATHER MANILA PD WEATHER MANILA= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 240900 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TY 0605 KAEMI (0605) ANALYSIS PSTN 240900UTC 21.7N 122.5E FAIR MOVE NW 11KT PRES 955HPA MXWD 080KT 50KT 60NM 30KT 260NM SOUTH 150NM NORTH FORECAST 24HF 250900UTC 23.4N 118.7E 80NM 70% MOVE WNW 09KT PRES 970HPA MXWD 065KT 45HF 260600UTC 24.7N 115.9E 150NM 70% MOVE WNW 08KT PRES 990HPA MXWD 045KT 69HF 270600UTC 26.5N 113.4E 220NM 70% MOVE WNW 07KT PRES 996HPA MXWD 040KT = ** WTJP31 RJTD 240900 *** WARNING 240900. WARNING VALID 250900. TYPHOON WARNING. TYPHOON 0605 KAEMI (0605) 955 HPA AT 21.7N 122.5E SOUTHEAST OF TAIWAN MOVING NORTHWEST 11 KNOTS. POSITION FAIR. MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 60 MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 260 MILES SOUTH SEMICIRCLE AND 150 MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION FOR 250900UTC AT 23.4N 118.7E WITH 80 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 970 HPA, MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTJP31 RJTD 240900 *** WARNING 240900. WARNING VALID 250900. TYPHOON WARNING. TYPHOON 0605 KAEMI (0605) 955 HPA AT 21.7N 122.5E SOUTHEAST OF TAIWAN MOVING NORTHWEST 11 KNOTS. POSITION FAIR. MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 60 MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 260 MILES SOUTH SEMICIRCLE AND 150 MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION FOR 250900UTC AT 23.4N 118.7E WITH 80 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 970 HPA, MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ20 BABJ 240900 CCA *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TY KAEMI 0605 (0605) INITIAL TIME 240900 UTC 00HR 22.1N 122.5E 960HPA 40M/S 30KTS 430KM 50KTS 120KM P12HR WNW 15KM/H P+24HR 23.9N 119.2E 970HPA 35M/S P+48HR 25.6N 116.6E 990HPA 23M/S P+72HR 29.7N 114.9E 998HPA 15M/S= ** WTPN31 PHNC 241000 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// REF/A/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN/PEARL HARBOR HI/240935JUL2006// AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. HURRICANE 05E (DANIEL) WARNING NR 030 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 240600Z --- NEAR 16.0N 139.2W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 285 DEGREES AT 13 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 16.0N 139.2W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 241800Z --- 16.5N 141.2W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 250600Z --- 16.9N 142.8W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 251800Z --- 17.3N 144.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 08 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 260600Z --- 17.7N 146.2W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 270600Z --- 18.5N 150.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 065 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 10 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 280600Z --- 19.5N 154.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 060 KT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 11 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 290600Z --- 21.0N 158.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 060 KT --- REMARKS: 241000Z POSITION NEAR 16.2N 139.9W. AT 240600Z HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED 934 NM E OF HILO. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 240600Z IS 34 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 241600Z, 242200Z, 250400Z AND 251000Z. REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 06E (EMILIA) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PHNC) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.// ** WTPN32 PHNC 241000 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// REF/A/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN/PEARL HARBOR HI/240930JUL2006// AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL STORM 06E (EMILIA) WARNING NR 012 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 240600Z --- NEAR 18.3N 109.2W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 285 DEGREES AT 08 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 18.3N 109.2W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 241800Z --- 18.8N 110.8W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 250600Z --- 19.8N 112.3W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 251800Z --- 20.8N 113.7W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 08 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 260600Z --- 21.8N 115.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 270600Z --- 23.8N 118.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 08 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 280600Z --- 25.5N 121.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: 241000Z POSITION NEAR 18.5N 109.7W. AT 240600Z TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED 540 NM W OF ACAPULCO. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 240600Z IS 16 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 241600Z, 242200Z, 250400Z AND 251000Z. REFER TO HURRICANE 05E (DANIEL) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PHNC) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.// ** WTPQ20 BABJ 241000 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TY KAEMI 0605 (0605) INITIAL TIME 241000 UTC 00HR 22.2N 122.4E 960HPA 40M/S 30KTS 430KM 50KTS 120KM P12HR WNW 15KM/H= ** WTPQ20 VHHH 241045 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT 240900 UTC, TYPHOON KAEMI (0605) WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 960 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 30 NAUTICAL MILES OF TWO TWO POINT ZERO DEGREES NORTH (22.0 N) ONE TWO TWO POINT FIVE DEGREES EAST (122.5 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHWEST OR WEST-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 11 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 75 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 90 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 60 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 63 KNOT WINDS 30 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 360 NAUTICAL MILES OVER EASTERN SEMICIRCLE, 240 NAUTICAL MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 250900 UTC TWO THREE POINT SIX DEGREES NORTH (23.6 N) ONE ONE EIGHT POINT SIX DEGREES EAST (118.6 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 60 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 260900 UTC TWO FOUR POINT FIVE DEGREES NORTH (24.5 N) ONE ONE FIVE POINT THREE DEGREES EAST (115.3 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 45 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 270900 UTC DISSIPATED OVER LAND. ** WTPQ20 BABJ 241100 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TY KAEMI 0605 (0605) INITIAL TIME 241100 UTC 00HR 22.3N 122.3E 960HPA 40M/S 30KTS 430KM 50KTS 120KM P12HR WNW 15KM/H= ** WTPQ20 BABJ 241100 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TY KAEMI 0605 (0605) INITIAL TIME 241100 UTC 00HR 22.3N 122.3E 960HPA 40M/S 30KTS 430KM 50KTS 120KM P12HR WNW 15KM/H=