** WTPQ20 BABJ 240000 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TY KAEMI 0605 (0605) INITIAL TIME 240000 UTC 00HR 20.8N 123.8E 960HPA 40M/S 30KTS 430KM 50KTS 120KM P12HR WNW 15KM/H P+24HR 22.8N 120.9E 970HPA 35M/S P+48HR 24.7N 117.7E 990HPA 23M/S P+72HR 29.5N 116.7E 998HPA 15M/S= ** WTJP21 RJTD 240000 *** WARNING 240000. WARNING VALID 250000. WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS. TYPHOON WARNING. TYPHOON 0605 KAEMI (0605) 955 HPA AT 20.6N 123.8E SEA SOUTH OF OKINAWA MOVING WEST 06 KNOTS. POSITION FAIR. MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 60 MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 260 MILES SOUTH SEMICIRCLE AND 150 MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION FOR 250000UTC AT 22.5N 119.9E WITH 80 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 960 HPA, MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. FORECAST POSITION FOR 260000UTC AT 23.3N 116.5E WITH 150 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 985 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. FORECAST POSITION FOR 270000UTC AT 24.7N 112.7E WITH 220 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 996 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 240000 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TY 0605 KAEMI (0605) ANALYSIS PSTN 240000UTC 20.6N 123.8E FAIR MOVE W 06KT PRES 955HPA MXWD 080KT 50KT 60NM 30KT 260NM SOUTH 150NM NORTH FORECAST 24HF 250000UTC 22.5N 119.9E 80NM 70% MOVE W 09KT PRES 960HPA MXWD 075KT 48HF 260000UTC 23.3N 116.5E 150NM 70% MOVE W 07KT PRES 985HPA MXWD 050KT 72HF 270000UTC 24.7N 112.7E 220NM 70% MOVE WNW 09KT PRES 996HPA MXWD 040KT = ** WTPQ30 RJTD 240000 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING REASONING NO.12 FOR TY 0605 KAEMI (0605) 1.GENERAL COMMENTS REASONING OF PROGNOSIS THIS TIME IS SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS ONE. POSITION FORECAST IS MAINLY BASED ON NWP AND PERSISTENCY. 2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION NOTHING PARTICULAR TO EXPLAIN. 3.MOTION FORECAST POSITION ACCURACY AT 240000 UTC IS FAIR. TY WILL MOVE AT THE SAME SPEED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TY WILL MOVE WEST-NORTHWEST FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. 4.INTENSITY FORECAST TY WILL KEEP PRESENT INTENSITY FOR NEXT 24 HOURS. FI-NUMBER WILL BE 5.0 AFTER 24 HOURS.= ** WTPQ20 BABJ 240100 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TY KAEMI 0605 (0605) INITIAL TIME 240100 UTC 00HR 21.0N 123.7E 960HPA 40M/S 30KTS 430KM 50KTS 120KM P12HR NW 20KM/H= ** WTPQ20 VHHH 240145 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT 240000 UTC, TYPHOON KAEMI (0605) WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 960 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 30 NAUTICAL MILES OF TWO ONE POINT ZERO DEGREES NORTH (21.0 N) ONE TWO THREE POINT EIGHT DEGREES EAST (123.8 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 10 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 75 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 120 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 60 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 63 KNOT WINDS 30 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 210 NAUTICAL MILES. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 250000 UTC TWO THREE POINT THREE DEGREES NORTH (23.3 N) ONE TWO ZERO POINT THREE DEGREES EAST (120.3 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 60 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 260000 UTC TWO THREE POINT NINE DEGREES NORTH (23.9 N) ONE ONE SIX POINT SEVEN DEGREES EAST (116.7 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 50 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 270000 UTC DISSIPATED OVER LAND. ** WTPQ20 BABJ 240200 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TY KAEMI 0605 (0605) INITIAL TIME 240200 UTC 00HR 21.1N 123.6E 960HPA 40M/S 30KTS 430KM 50KTS 120KM P12HR NW 15KM/H= ** WTPZ21 KNHC 240252 *** TCMEP1 TROPICAL STORM EMILIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 11 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062006 0300 UTC MON JUL 24 2006 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.2N 108.8W AT 24/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 7 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 991 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT. 50 KT....... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT....... 90NE 80SE 60SW 80NW. 12 FT SEAS..140NE 100SE 70SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.2N 108.8W AT 24/0300Z AT 24/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.1N 108.4W FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 18.6N 109.9W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 10NE 10SE 10SW 10NW. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...100NE 95SE 60SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 19.4N 111.3W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 15SE 15SW 15NW. 50 KT... 55NE 45SE 35SW 45NW. 34 KT...110NE 100SE 70SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 20.4N 112.7W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 15SE 15SW 15NW. 50 KT... 55NE 45SE 35SW 45NW. 34 KT...110NE 100SE 70SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 21.4N 114.0W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 50 KT... 45NE 45SE 35SW 35NW. 34 KT...100NE 100SE 70SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 23.5N 117.0W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 80NE 80SE 60SW 70NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 28/0000Z 25.0N 119.5W...DISSIPATING MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 29/0000Z 27.0N 122.5W...REMNANT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.2N 108.8W NEXT ADVISORY AT 24/0900Z $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS/FRANKLIN ** WTPZ45 KNHC 240252 *** TCDEP5 HURRICANE DANIEL DISCUSSION NUMBER 29 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052006 800 PM PDT SUN JUL 23 2006 THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION OF DANIEL HAS DECAYED CONSIDERABLY OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS...WITH THE EYE FILLING IN AND THE CLOUD TOPS WARMING. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 95 KT IS BASED ON AN AVERAGE OF THE DVORAK T AND CI NUMBERS...5.0/5.5 FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB. THE WIND RADII HAVE ALSO BEEN BROUGHT IN BASED ON THE MOST RECENT QUIKSCAT PASS...WHICH CAUGHT THE EAST SIDE OF THE CYCLONE. THE INITIAL MOTION IS 285/15...A BIT FASTER THAN BEFORE. DANIEL REMAINS TO THE SOUTH OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE. OTHER POTENTIAL PLAYERS IN THE ENVIRONMENT INCLUDE A MID-LEVEL LOW OR TROUGH ABOUT 500 NM TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE CYCLONE AND AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH TO THE NORTH OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS. THE GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS NOT IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE HANDLING OF THESE FEATURES...ESPECIALLY THE FORMER TWO. BOTH THE GFS AND THE ECMWF INITIALIZE THE LOW TO THE SOUTHWEST OF DANIEL AS A VERY STRONG FEATURE...AND COUPLED WITH A MORE RAPID WEAKENING OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE...BRING DANIEL TO A DEAD STOP WITHIN 24 HOURS RIGHT AROUND 140W. THEY THEN TAKE DANIEL WESTWARD AS A VERY WEAK SYSTEM. ON THE OTHER HAND...THE UKMET AND NOGAPS MAINTAIN A STRONGER RIDGE AND SHOW A MUCH WEAKER FEATURE TO THE SOUTHWEST OF DANIEL. THIS RESULTS A MORE OR LESS CONTINUED WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK FOR THE NEXT FIVE DAYS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS BEEN SHIFTED A LITTLE TO THE SOUTH AND A LITTLE FASTER TO BE MORE CONSISTENT WITH THE UKMET AND NOGAPS MODELS. TO MY EYE...THE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY IS MORE CONSISTENT WITH THE UKMET/NOGAPS INITIALIZATION. FURTHERMORE...THE UKMET AND NOGAPS HAVE OUTPERFORMED THE COMPETITION BY A WIDE MARGIN FOR DANIEL SO FAR. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THE SHIPS AND GFDL GUIDANCE. DANIEL IS ALREADY OVER SSTS OF ROUGHLY 25C...BUT THEY WON'T BE GETTING MUCH COOLER IN THE DAYS AHEAD. HOWEVER...DANIEL WILL BE INCREASINGLY INGESTING STABLE LOW-LEVEL AIR AND SO A CONTINUED WEAKENING IS EXPECTED. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY IS SHOWING MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL EASTERLIES ADVANCING WESTWARD WITH DANIEL...AND THE UKMET AND NOGAPS 200 MB FIELDS SUGGEST THAT SHEAR COULD REMAIN RELATIVELY LOW THOUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. AS DANIEL APPROACHES THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS...SSTS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE AGAIN. CONSEQUENTLY...DANIEL COULD STILL BE A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IN FIVE DAYS. IF DANIEL FOLLOWS THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER WOULD ASSUME RESPONSIBILITY FOR THE CYCLONE WITH THE 15Z ADVISORY PACKAGE TOMORROW MORNING. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 24/0300Z 15.8N 138.7W 95 KT 12HR VT 24/1200Z 16.3N 140.3W 85 KT 24HR VT 25/0000Z 16.8N 142.0W 75 KT 36HR VT 25/1200Z 17.2N 143.5W 65 KT 48HR VT 26/0000Z 17.7N 145.1W 60 KT 72HR VT 27/0000Z 18.5N 148.5W 55 KT 96HR VT 28/0000Z 19.5N 152.5W 50 KT 120HR VT 29/0000Z 21.0N 157.0W 50 KT $$ FORECASTER FRANKLIN ** WTPZ25 KNHC 240253 *** TCMEP5 HURRICANE DANIEL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 29 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052006 0300 UTC MON JUL 24 2006 HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.8N 138.7W AT 24/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 15 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 965 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 95 KT WITH GUSTS TO 115 KT. 64 KT....... 25NE 25SE 20SW 25NW. 50 KT....... 50NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT....... 80NE 80SE 70SW 80NW. 12 FT SEAS..420NE 360SE 300SW 360NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.8N 138.7W AT 24/0300Z AT 24/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.6N 138.0W FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 16.3N 140.3W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 25SE 20SW 25NW. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT... 80NE 80SE 70SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 16.8N 142.0W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 25SE 20SW 25NW. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT... 80NE 80SE 70SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 17.2N 143.5W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 75NE 75SE 50SW 75NW. FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 17.7N 145.1W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 75NE 75SE 50SW 75NW. FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 18.5N 148.5W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 75NE 75SE 50SW 75NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 28/0000Z 19.5N 152.5W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 29/0000Z 21.0N 157.0W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.8N 138.7W NEXT ADVISORY AT 24/0900Z $$ FORECASTER FRANKLIN ** WTPZ41 KNHC 240253 *** TCDEP1 TROPICAL STORM EMILIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 11 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062006 800 PM PDT SUN JUL 23 2006 EARLIER THIS EVENING...VISIBLE AND ENHANCED INFRARED IMAGERY SUGGESTED THAT EMILIA WAS STRUGGLING THROUGH THE DIURNAL MINIMUM...WITH CLOUD TOPS WARMING NEAR THE CIRCULATION CENTER AND OVER THE OUTER BANDING FEATURES TO THE SOUTHEAST AND NORTHEAST. HOWEVER...CONVENTIONAL IMAGERY NOW DEPICTS A MORE IMPRESSIVE OVERALL CLOUD PATTERN WITH COLDER TOPS OF -70C AND AND A STRONG BANDING FEATURE DEVELOPING OVER THE WESTERN AND SOUTHERN QUADRANTS OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE. DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 55 KT FROM ALL THREE AGENCIES...WITH A UW-CIMSS ADT ESTIMATE OF 61 KT. THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS AT 60 KT BASED ON A BLEND OF THE FOREGOING AND THE RECENT BANDING DEVELOPMENT. DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO...EMILIA IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER WARM WATER AND WITHIN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT ALOFT. WATER VAPOR ANIMATION REVEALS IMPRESSIVE OUTFLOW OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN AND NORTHEASTERN QUADRANTS. AFTER 36 HOURS OR SO...EMILIA SHOULD BE MOVING OVER COOLER WATERS AND THROUGH A NOT SO FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT. THIS SHOULD TRIGGER A WEAKENING TREND THROUGH DAY 5. THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 285/7...JUST TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK...WITH A SHORT-TERM MOTION MORE LIKE DUE WEST. A DEEP-LAYER RIDGE STRETCHING OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. AND THE BAJA PENINSULA IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ANCHORED IN PLACE DURING THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD. THE MODELS ARE GROUPED INTO TWO CLUSTERS. ONE CLUSTER...WHICH INCLUDES THE GFS/GFDL/ECMWF/GFDN... SUGGESTS A MORE NORTHWESTWARD MOTION INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE. THE OTHER GROUPING...CONSISTING OF THE UKMET/NOGAPS/FSU SUPERENSEMBLE AND...ODDLY...THE GFS ENSEMBLE... INDICATES A CONTINUED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD STEERING FLOW DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE AND A LITTLE TO THE LEFT OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 24/0300Z 18.2N 108.8W 60 KT 12HR VT 24/1200Z 18.6N 109.9W 70 KT 24HR VT 25/0000Z 19.4N 111.3W 85 KT 36HR VT 25/1200Z 20.4N 112.7W 85 KT 48HR VT 26/0000Z 21.4N 114.0W 70 KT 72HR VT 27/0000Z 23.5N 117.0W 40 KT 96HR VT 28/0000Z 25.0N 119.5W 25 KT...DISSIPATING 120HR VT 29/0000Z 27.0N 122.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS/FRANKLIN ** WTPN31 PGTW 240300 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TYPHOON 06W (KAEMI) WARNING NR 025 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 240000Z --- NEAR 21.0N 123.8E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 280 DEGREES AT 07 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 21.0N 123.8E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 241200Z --- 22.1N 121.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 250000Z --- 23.0N 120.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 251200Z --- 23.3N 118.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 08 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 260000Z --- 24.1N 116.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 270000Z --- 26.2N 114.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 240300Z POSITION NEAR 21.3N 123.3E. TYPHOON (TY) 06W (KAEMI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 215 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF KAOHSIUNG, TAIWAN, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 240000Z IS 24 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 240900Z, 241500Z, 242100Z AND 250300Z.// ** WTPQ20 BABJ 240300 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TY KAEMI 0605 (0605) INITIAL TIME 240300 UTC 00HR 21.2N 123.3E 960HPA 40M/S 30KTS 430KM 50KTS 120KM P12HR NW 15KM/H= ** WTJP31 RJTD 240300 *** WARNING 240300. WARNING VALID 250300. TYPHOON WARNING. TYPHOON 0605 KAEMI (0605) 955 HPA AT 20.9N 123.4E SEA SOUTH OF OKINAWA MOVING WESTNORTHWEST 07 KNOTS. POSITION FAIR. MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 60 MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 260 MILES SOUTH SEMICIRCLE AND 150 MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION FOR 250300UTC AT 22.6N 119.5E WITH 80 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 965 HPA, MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 240300 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TY 0605 KAEMI (0605) ANALYSIS PSTN 240300UTC 20.9N 123.4E FAIR MOVE WNW 07KT PRES 955HPA MXWD 080KT 50KT 60NM 30KT 260NM SOUTH 150NM NORTH FORECAST 24HF 250300UTC 22.6N 119.5E 80NM 70% MOVE W 09KT PRES 965HPA MXWD 070KT 45HF 260000UTC 23.3N 116.5E 150NM 70% MOVE W 07KT PRES 985HPA MXWD 050KT 69HF 270000UTC 24.7N 112.7E 220NM 70% MOVE WNW 09KT PRES 996HPA MXWD 040KT = ** WTPN31 PHNC 240400 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// REF/A/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN/PEARL HARBOR HI/240335JUL2006// AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. HURRICANE 05E (DANIEL) WARNING NR 029 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 240000Z --- NEAR 15.6N 138.0W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 285 DEGREES AT 15 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 15.6N 138.0W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 241200Z --- 16.3N 140.3W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 090 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 250000Z --- 16.8N 142.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 251200Z --- 17.2N 143.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 08 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 260000Z --- 17.7N 145.1W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 270000Z --- 18.5N 148.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 065 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 10 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 280000Z --- 19.5N 152.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 060 KT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 11 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 290000Z --- 21.0N 157.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 060 KT --- REMARKS: 240400Z POSITION NEAR 15.8N 138.8W. AT 240000Z HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED 1008 NM E OF HILO. NEXT WARNINGS AT 241000Z, 241600Z, 242200Z AND 250400Z. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 240000Z IS 36 FEET. REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 06E (EMILIA) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PHNC) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.// ** WTPQ20 BABJ 240400 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TY KAEMI 0605 (0605) INITIAL TIME 240400 UTC 00HR 21.4N 123.2E 960HPA 40M/S 30KTS 430KM 50KTS 120KM P12HR NNW 20KM/H= ** WTPH20 RPMM 240000 *** T T T TYPHOON WARNING AT 0000 24 JULY TYPHOON (KAEMI) (0605)WAS LOCATED BY PAGASA RADAR, SATELITE AND SURFACE DATA AT TWO ZERO POINT SEVEN NORTH ONE TWO THREE POINT EIGHT EAST MOVING WEST NORTHWEST AT ZERO FOUR METERS PER SECOND ROUGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS WITHIN THREE FIVE ZERO KILOMETERS SOUTH SEMI-CIRCLE TWO FIVE ZERO KILOMETERS ELSEWHERE ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE NINE SIX THREE HECTOPASCALS MAXIMUM WINDS FOUR ONE METERS PER SECOND NEAR CENTER THREE THREE METERS PER SECOND WITHIN ONE FIVE ZERO KILOMETER RADIUS ONE THREE METERS PER SECOND WITHIN THREE FIVE ZERO KILOMETERS SOUTH SEMI-CIRCLE TWO FIVE ZERO KILOMETERS ELSEWHERE FORECAST POSITIONS AT 250000 TWO TWO POINT FIVE NORTH ONE TWO ZERO POINT THREE EAST AT 260000 TWO FIVE POINT ONE NORTH ONE ONE SEVEN POINT TWO EAST ALL SHIPS WITHIN TYPHOON AREA ARE REQUESTED TO SEND THREE HOURLY WEATHER REPORTS TO WEATHER MANILA=PD ** WTPN32 PHNC 240000 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// REF/A/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN/PEARL HARBOR HI/230330JUL2006// AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL STORM 06E (EMILIA) WARNING NR 011 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 240000Z --- NEAR 18.1N 108.4W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 285 DEGREES AT 07 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 18.1N 108.4W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 241200Z --- 18.6N 109.9W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 250000Z --- 19.4N 111.3W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 251200Z --- 20.4N 112.7W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 08 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 260000Z --- 21.4N 114.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 270000Z --- 23.5N 117.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 07 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 280000Z --- 25.0N 119.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 290000Z --- 27.0N 122.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 03 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: 240400Z POSITION NEAR 18.3N 108.9W. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 240000Z IS 16 FEET. AT 240000Z, TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED 152 NM ESE OF SOCORRO ISLAND. NEXT WARNINGS AT 241000Z, 241600Z, 242200Z AND 250400Z. REFER TO HURRICANE 05E (DANIEL) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PHNC) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.// ** WTPN32 PHNC 240400 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// REF/A/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN/PEARL HARBOR HI/230330JUL2006// AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL STORM 06E (EMILIA) WARNING NR 011 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 240000Z --- NEAR 18.1N 108.4W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 285 DEGREES AT 07 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 18.1N 108.4W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 241200Z --- 18.6N 109.9W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 250000Z --- 19.4N 111.3W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 251200Z --- 20.4N 112.7W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 08 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 260000Z --- 21.4N 114.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 270000Z --- 23.5N 117.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 07 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 280000Z --- 25.0N 119.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 290000Z --- 27.0N 122.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 025 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: 240400Z POSITION NEAR 18.3N 108.9W. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 240000Z IS 16 FEET. AT 240000Z, TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED 152 NM ESE OF SOCORRO_ISLAND. NEXT WARNINGS AT 241000Z, 241600Z, 242200Z AND 250400Z. REFER TO HURRICANE 05E (DANIEL) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PHNC) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.// ** WTPQ20 VHHH 240445 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT 240300 UTC, TYPHOON KAEMI (0605) WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 960 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 30 NAUTICAL MILES OF TWO ONE POINT THREE DEGREES NORTH (21.3 N) ONE TWO THREE POINT THREE DEGREES EAST (123.3 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 10 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 75 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 120 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 60 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 63 KNOT WINDS 30 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 240 NAUTICAL MILES. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 250300 UTC TWO THREE POINT SIX DEGREES NORTH (23.6 N) ONE ONE NINE POINT EIGHT DEGREES EAST (119.8 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 60 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 260300 UTC TWO FOUR POINT ZERO DEGREES NORTH (24.0 N) ONE ONE SIX POINT THREE DEGREES EAST (116.3 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 50 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 270300 UTC DISSIPATED OVER LAND. ** WTNT80 EGRR 240528 *** MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 24.07.2006 HURRICANE DANIEL ANALYSED POSITION : 15.3N 137.5W ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP052006 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 24.07.2006 15.3N 137.5W MODERATE 12UTC 24.07.2006 15.9N 139.8W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 25.07.2006 16.3N 142.2W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 25.07.2006 16.8N 144.1W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 26.07.2006 17.3N 145.9W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 26.07.2006 17.5N 147.6W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 27.07.2006 18.1N 149.4W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 27.07.2006 18.2N 151.7W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 28.07.2006 17.8N 154.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 28.07.2006 17.8N 159.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 29.07.2006 17.8N 165.0W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 29.07.2006 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH. TROPICAL STORM EMILIA ANALYSED POSITION : 17.8N 108.7W ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP062006 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 24.07.2006 17.8N 108.7W MODERATE 12UTC 24.07.2006 18.5N 109.9W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 25.07.2006 20.0N 111.3W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 25.07.2006 20.8N 113.3W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 26.07.2006 22.0N 115.5W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 26.07.2006 23.1N 117.8W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 27.07.2006 24.1N 119.7W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 27.07.2006 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 240528 ** WTPQ20 BABJ 240500 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TY KAEMI 0605 (0605) INITIAL TIME 240500 UTC 00HR 21.6N 123.1E 960HPA 40M/S 30KTS 430KM 50KTS 120KM P12HR NNW 20KM/H=