** WTPQ20 RJTD 231800 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TY 0605 KAEMI (0605) ANALYSIS PSTN 231800UTC 20.6N 124.3E FAIR MOVE WNW 12KT PRES 955HPA MXWD 080KT 50KT 60NM 30KT 260NM SOUTH 150NM NORTH FORECAST 24HF 241800UTC 22.6N 121.5E 80NM 70% MOVE WNW 08KT PRES 955HPA MXWD 075KT 48HF 251800UTC 23.2N 117.7E 150NM 70% MOVE W 08KT PRES 980HPA MXWD 055KT 72HF 261800UTC 24.5N 113.5E 220NM 70% MOVE W 10KT PRES 990HPA MXWD 045KT = ** WTJP21 RJTD 231800 *** WARNING 231800. WARNING VALID 241800. WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS. TYPHOON WARNING. TYPHOON 0605 KAEMI (0605) 955 HPA AT 20.6N 124.3E SEA SOUTH OF OKINAWA MOVING WESTNORTHWEST 12 KNOTS. POSITION FAIR. MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 60 MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 260 MILES SOUTH SEMICIRCLE AND 150 MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION FOR 241800UTC AT 22.6N 121.5E WITH 80 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 955 HPA, MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. FORECAST POSITION FOR 251800UTC AT 23.2N 117.7E WITH 150 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 980 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. FORECAST POSITION FOR 261800UTC AT 24.5N 113.5E WITH 220 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 990 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ20 BABJ 231800 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TY KAEMI 0605 (0605) INITIAL TIME 231800 UTC 00HR 20.6N 124.3E 960HPA 40M/S 30KTS 430KM 50KTS 120KM P12HR WNW 20KM/H P+24HR 22.7N 121.1E 965HPA 38M/S P+48HR 24.5N 119.0E 985HPA 25M/S P+72HR 28.5N 118.2E 998HPA 15M/S= ** WTKO20 RKSL 231800 *** KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 10 NAME TY 0605 KAEMI ANALYSIS POSITION 231800UTC 20.6N 124.3E MOVEMENT WNW 11KT PRES/VMAX 955HPA 76KT FORECAST 24HR POSITION 241800UTC 23.1N 121.2E WITHIN 80NM PRES/VMAX 960HPA 72KT 48HR POSITION 251800UTC 24.4N 118.2E WITHIN 135NM PRES/VMAX 975HPA 60KT 72HR POSITION 261800UTC 26.0N 114.4E WITHIN 215NM PRES/VMAX 990HPA 41KT KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION. ** WTPQ20 VHHH 231945 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT 231800 UTC, TYPHOON KAEMI (0605) WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 960 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 30 NAUTICAL MILES OF TWO ZERO POINT SIX DEGREES NORTH (20.6 N) ONE TWO FOUR POINT FIVE DEGREES EAST (124.5 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 10 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 75 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 120 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 60 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 63 KNOT WINDS 30 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 240 NAUTICAL MILES. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 241800 UTC TWO TWO POINT FIVE DEGREES NORTH (22.5 N) ONE TWO ONE POINT NINE DEGREES EAST (121.9 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 75 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 251800 UTC TWO FOUR POINT SIX DEGREES NORTH (24.6 N) ONE ONE NINE POINT ONE DEGREES EAST (119.1 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 65 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 261800 UTC TWO SEVEN POINT FIVE DEGREES NORTH (27.5 N) ONE ONE SEVEN POINT FIVE DEGREES EAST (117.5 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 35 KNOTS. ** WTPZ41 KNHC 232026 *** TCDEP1 TROPICAL STORM EMILIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 10 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062006 200 PM PDT SUN JUL 23 2006 CONVECTIVE BANDING HAS CONTINUED TO INCREASE AND IMPROVE. T-NUMBERS FROM ALL THREE AGENCIES ARE A CONSENSUS T3.5/55 KT...AND A 3-HR AVERAGE ADT FROM UW-CIMSS IS T3.7/59 KT. GIVEN THE BANDING EYE FEATURE OCCASIONALLY APPEARING IN BOTH CONVENTIONAL AND MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGERY...THE INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 60 KT. THE INITIAL MOTION IS 300/07 KT. THE FORWARD SPEED HAS DECREASED SLIGHTLY...WHICH IS LIKELY JUST A TEMPORARY TREND AND PROBABLY DUE TO THE INNER CORE BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED. THE LARGE MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. AND EXTENDING SOUTHEASTWARD INTO MEXICO IS FORECAST TO REMAIN IN PLACE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. DEEP-LAYER SOUTHEAST TO EASTERLY STEERING FLOW ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE SHOULD FORCE EMILIA ON A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWEST TO NORTHWESTWARD TRACK THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE NHC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT NOW WITH THE GFS AND THE GFS ENSEMBLE MODELS HAVING MADE A SIGNIFICANT NORTHWARD SHIFT INTO THE MAIN MODEL GUIDANCE ENVELOPE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS JUST AN EXTENSION OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK AND IS SIMILAR TO THE CONU CONSENSUS MODEL. CONVECTIVE BANDS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND WRAP TIGHTLY AROUND THE CIRCULATION CENTER...AND AN EYE MAY BECOME APPARENT IN CONVENTIONAL IMAGERY DURING THE NEXT 6-12 HOURS IF THE RECENT DEVELOPMENT TREND CONTINUES. THE UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW HAS CONTINUED TO EXPAND AND BECOME MORE SYMMETRICAL. FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO...EMILIA IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER SSTS OF 28-29C AND IN A LOW OR NO SHEAR ENVIRONMENT. ALL OF THESE FACTORS SUGGEST THAT A PERIOD OF RAPID INTENSIFICATION ENSUE SHORTLY...AND THIS IS REFLECTED IN THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST BETWEEN THE 12H TO 24 H FORECAST PERIODS. BY 48 HOURS...EMILIA IS FORECAST TO BE MOVING OVER SUB-25C SSTS...WHICH SHOULD INDUCE A STEADY OR RAPID WEAKENING TREND. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 23/2100Z 18.4N 107.8W 60 KT 12HR VT 24/0600Z 19.0N 109.0W 70 KT 24HR VT 24/1800Z 19.7N 110.5W 85 KT 36HR VT 25/0600Z 20.4N 112.0W 85 KT 48HR VT 25/1800Z 21.1N 113.4W 70 KT 72HR VT 26/1800Z 22.6N 116.1W 40 KT...DISSIPATING 96HR VT 27/1800Z 24.5N 119.0W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW 120HR VT 28/1800Z 26.5N 122.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW $$ FORECASTER STEWART ** WTPZ21 KNHC 232026 *** TCMEP1 TROPICAL STORM EMILIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 10 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062006 2100 UTC SUN JUL 23 2006 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.4N 107.8W AT 23/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 7 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 991 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT. 50 KT....... 40NE 30SE 20SW 25NW. 34 KT....... 90NE 75SE 50SW 75NW. 12 FT SEAS..130NE 80SE 50SW 130NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.4N 107.8W AT 23/2100Z AT 23/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.2N 107.5W FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 19.0N 109.0W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 10NE 10SE 10SW 10NW. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...100NE 95SE 60SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 19.7N 110.5W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 15SE 15SW 15NW. 50 KT... 55NE 45SE 35SW 45NW. 34 KT...110NE 100SE 70SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 20.4N 112.0W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 15SE 15SW 15NW. 50 KT... 55NE 45SE 35SW 45NW. 34 KT...110NE 100SE 70SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 21.1N 113.4W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 50 KT... 45NE 45SE 35SW 35NW. 34 KT...100NE 100SE 70SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z 22.6N 116.1W...DISSIPATING MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 80NE 80SE 60SW 70NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 27/1800Z 24.5N 119.0W...REMNANT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 28/1800Z 26.5N 122.0W...REMNANT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.4N 107.8W NEXT ADVISORY AT 24/0300Z $$ FORECASTER STEWART ** WTPZ45 KNHC 232032 *** TCDEP5 HURRICANE DANIEL DISCUSSION NUMBER 28 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052006 200 PM PDT SUN JUL 23 2006 DANIEL CONTINUES TO EXHIBIT A FAIRLY WELL-DEFINED EYE...HOWEVER CLOUD TOPS HAVE BEEN GRADUALLY WARMING. SUBJECTIVE DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES HAVE DECREASED AND CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM ALL THREE AGENCIES ARE 102 KT. THEREFORE...THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL BE REDUCED TO 105 KT. THE HURRICANE SHOWS NO SIGN OF SLOWING ITS FORWARD SPEED AS SOME OF THE GUIDANCE HAS SUGGESTED. THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 285/13. THE FORECAST REASONING REMAINS VIRTUALLY UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AS DANIEL IS EXPECTED TO BE STEERED WEST- NORTHWESTWARD BY A MID-TO-UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO ITS NORTH...WHICH IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN IN 36-48 HOURS. THE GFDL AND GFS CONTINUE TO BE THE RIGHT- AND LEFT-MOST MODELS...RESPECTIVELY. THE GFS WEAKENS DANIEL FAR TOO RAPIDLY AND THEN STALLS THE REMNANTS NEAR 140W IN ABOUT 24 HOURS. THIS EVOLUTION SEEMS UNREALISTIC. THE GFDL HAS CONTINUED TO FORECAST A MORE NORTHWARD TURN IN ABOUT 36-48 HOURS. THE UKMET AND NOGAPS CONTINUE TO FORECAST MORE RIDGING AND KEEPS THE HURRICANE ON A STEADY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE UKMET HAS SHIFTED CONSIDERABLY NORTHWARD AT DAYS 4 AND 5. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST DISCOUNTS BOTH THE GFS AND GFDL SOLUTIONS AND IS NEAR THE CONSENSUS OF THE REMAINING MODELS. DANIEL IS FORECAST TO STEADILY WEAKEN AS IS MOVES OVER SLIGHTLY COOLER WATERS. HOWEVER...VERTICAL SHEAR IS FORECAST TO REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH 72 HOURS. AT DAYS 4 AND 5....THE SHIPS MODEL IS FORECASTING SHEAR TO INCREASE...WHICH MAY BE UNREPRESENTATIVE DUE TO THE LARGE SAMPLING RADIUS USED BY THE SHIPS MODEL TO CALCULATE SHEAR. THEREFORE...THE INTENSITY FORECAST SHOWS LESS WEAKENING THAN SHIPS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 23/2100Z 15.3N 137.1W 105 KT 12HR VT 24/0600Z 15.7N 138.8W 95 KT 24HR VT 24/1800Z 16.2N 140.4W 80 KT 36HR VT 25/0600Z 16.7N 141.8W 70 KT 48HR VT 25/1800Z 17.2N 143.0W 60 KT 72HR VT 26/1800Z 18.1N 145.7W 55 KT 96HR VT 27/1800Z 19.3N 149.5W 50 KT 120HR VT 28/1800Z 20.5N 154.5W 50 KT $$ FORECASTER BROWN/STEWART ** WTPZ25 KNHC 232032 *** TCMEP5 HURRICANE DANIEL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 28 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052006 2100 UTC SUN JUL 23 2006 HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.3N 137.1W AT 23/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 10 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 13 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 952 MB EYE DIAMETER 20 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 105 KT WITH GUSTS TO 130 KT. 64 KT....... 30NE 25SE 25SW 30NW. 50 KT....... 60NE 45SE 45SW 60NW. 34 KT.......110NE 90SE 90SW 110NW. 12 FT SEAS..420NE 360SE 300SW 360NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.3N 137.1W AT 23/2100Z AT 23/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.1N 136.5W FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 15.7N 138.8W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 25SE 25SW 30NW. 50 KT... 60NE 45SE 45SW 60NW. 34 KT...110NE 90SE 90SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 16.2N 140.4W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 25SE 25SW 30NW. 50 KT... 60NE 45SE 45SW 60NW. 34 KT...110NE 90SE 90SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 16.7N 141.8W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 50 KT... 55NE 40SE 40SW 55NW. 34 KT...100NE 80SE 80SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 17.2N 143.0W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...100NE 80SE 80SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z 18.1N 145.7W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...100NE 80SE 80SW 100NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 27/1800Z 19.3N 149.5W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 28/1800Z 20.5N 154.5W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.3N 137.1W NEXT ADVISORY AT 24/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BROWN/STEWART ** WTPN31 PGTW 232100 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TYPHOON 06W (KAEMI) WARNING NR 024 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 231800Z --- NEAR 20.9N 124.5E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 295 DEGREES AT 14 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 20.9N 124.5E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 240600Z --- 22.4N 122.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 241800Z --- 23.5N 121.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 250600Z --- 24.4N 119.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 07 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 251800Z --- 25.2N 118.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 261800Z --- 27.4N 115.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 232100Z POSITION NEAR 21.3N 124.1E. TYPHOON (TY) 06W (KAEMI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 300 NM SOUTHEAST OF TAIPEI, TAIWAN, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 14 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 231800Z IS 24 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 240300Z, 240900Z, 241500Z AND 242100Z.// ** WTJP31 RJTD 232100 *** WARNING 232100. WARNING VALID 242100. TYPHOON WARNING. TYPHOON 0605 KAEMI (0605) 955 HPA AT 20.6N 124.1E SEA SOUTH OF OKINAWA MOVING WEST 09 KNOTS. POSITION FAIR. MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 60 MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 260 MILES SOUTH SEMICIRCLE AND 150 MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION FOR 242100UTC AT 22.6N 121.1E WITH 80 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 960 HPA, MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 232100 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TY 0605 KAEMI (0605) ANALYSIS PSTN 232100UTC 20.6N 124.1E FAIR MOVE W 09KT PRES 955HPA MXWD 080KT 50KT 60NM 30KT 260NM SOUTH 150NM NORTH FORECAST 24HF 242100UTC 22.6N 121.1E 80NM 70% MOVE WNW 08KT PRES 960HPA MXWD 075KT 45HF 251800UTC 23.2N 117.7E 150NM 70% MOVE W 08KT PRES 980HPA MXWD 055KT 69HF 261800UTC 24.5N 113.5E 220NM 70% MOVE W 10KT PRES 990HPA MXWD 045KT = ** WTPQ20 BABJ 232100 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TY KAEMI 0605 (0605) INITIAL TIME 232100 UTC 00HR 20.6N 124.1E 960HPA 40M/S 30KTS 430KM 50KTS 120KM P12HR WNW 20KM/H P+24HR 22.7N 121.0E 970HPA 35M/S P+48HR 24.6N 117.7E 990HPA 23M/S P+72HR 28.8N 116.9E 998HPA 15M/S= ** WTPH20 RPMM 231800 *** TTT TYPHOON WARNING 12 AT 1800 23 JULY TYPHOON (KAEMI)(0605) WAS LOCATED BY SATELLITE AND SURFACE DATA AT TWO ZERO POINT SIX NORTH ONE TWO FOUR POINT THREE EAST FORECAST TO MOVE WEST NORTH WEST AT ZERO FIVE METERS PER SECOND ROUGH TO HENOMENAL SEAS WITHIN THREE FIVE ZERO KILOMETERS SOUTH SEMI-CIRCLE TWO FIVE ZERO KILOMETERS ELSEWHERE ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE NINE SIX THREE HECTOPASCALS MAXIMUM WINDS FOUR ONE METERS PER SECOND NEAR CENTER THREE THREE METERS PER SECOND WITHIN ONE FIVE ZERO KILOMETER RADIUS ONE THREE METERS PER SECOND WITHIN THREE FIVE ZERO KILOMETERS SOUTH SJEMI-CIRCLE TWO FIVE ZERO KILOMETERS ELSEWHERE FORECAST POSITIONS AT 241800 TWO TWO POINT NINE NORTH ONE TWO ZERO POINT FIVE EAST AT 251800 TWO FOUR POINT FIVE NORTH ONE ONE SEVEN POINT THREE EAST ALL SHIPS WITHIN TYPHOON ARE ARE REQUESTED TO SEND THREE HOURLY WEATHER REPORTS TO WEATHER MANILA PD WEATHER MANILA= ** WTPN31 PHNC 232200 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// REF/A/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN/PEARL HARBOR HI/232135JUL2006// AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. HURRICANE 05E (DANIEL) WARNING NR 028 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 231800Z --- NEAR 15.1N 136.5W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 285 DEGREES AT 13 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 010 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 15.1N 136.5W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 240600Z --- 15.7N 138.8W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 241800Z --- 16.2N 140.4W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 250600Z --- 16.7N 141.8W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 06 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 251800Z --- 17.2N 143.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 261800Z --- 18.1N 145.7W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 065 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 09 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 271800Z --- 19.3N 149.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 060 KT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 12 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 281800Z --- 20.5N 154.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 060 KT --- REMARKS: 232200Z POSITION NEAR 15.3N 137.3W. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 231800Z IS 36 FEET. AT 231800Z, HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED 1099 NM ESE OF HILO. NEXT WARNINGS AT 240400Z, 241000Z, 241600Z AND 242200Z. REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 06E (EMILIA) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PHNC) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.// ** WTPN32 PHNC 232200 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// REF/A/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN/PEARL HARBOR HI/232130JUL2006// AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL STORM 06E (EMILIA) WARNING NR 010 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 231800Z --- NEAR 18.2N 107.5W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 300 DEGREES AT 07 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 18.2N 107.5W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 240600Z --- 19.0N 109.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 241800Z --- 19.7N 110.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 250600Z --- 20.4N 112.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 07 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 251800Z --- 21.1N 113.4W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 261800Z --- 22.6N 116.1W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 08 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 271800Z --- 24.5N 119.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 281800Z --- 26.5N 122.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 025 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: 232200Z POSITION NEAR 18.5N 108.0W. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 231800Z IS 16 FEET. AT 231800Z, TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED 443 NM WNW OF ACAPULCO. NEXT WARNINGS AT 240400Z, 241000Z, 241600Z AND 242200Z. REFER TO HURRICANE 05E (DANIEL) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PHNC) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.// ** WTPQ20 VHHH 232245 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT 232100 UTC, TYPHOON KAEMI (0605) WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 960 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 30 NAUTICAL MILES OF TWO ZERO POINT EIGHT DEGREES NORTH (20.8 N) ONE TWO FOUR POINT ZERO DEGREES EAST (124.0 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 10 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 75 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 120 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 60 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 63 KNOT WINDS 30 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 240 NAUTICAL MILES. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 242100 UTC TWO TWO POINT NINE DEGREES NORTH (22.9 N) ONE TWO ONE POINT FIVE DEGREES EAST (121.5 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 75 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 252100 UTC TWO FOUR POINT EIGHT DEGREES NORTH (24.8 N) ONE ONE EIGHT POINT SEVEN DEGREES EAST (118.7 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 65 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 262100 UTC TWO EIGHT POINT ONE DEGREES NORTH (28.1 N) ONE ONE SEVEN POINT FIVE DEGREES EAST (117.5 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 30 KNOTS.