** WTPZ31 KNHC 231159 *** TCPEP1 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM EMILIA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 8A NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062006 500 AM PDT SUN JUL 23 2006 ...EMILIA GETTING BETTER ORGANIZED AS IT MOVES AWAY FROM THE COAST OF MEXICO... A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE PACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO FROM FROM MANZANILLO TO CABO CORRIENTES. THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH WILL LIKELY BE DISCONTINUED LATER TODAY. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 500 AM PDT...1200Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM EMILIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 107.0 WEST OR ABOUT 200 MILES...325 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO AND ABOUT 410 MILES...660 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO. EMILIA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/HR...AND A NORTHWESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS SHOULD REMAIN OFFSHORE. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES...95 KM FROM THE CENTER. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB...29.53 INCHES. STORM TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 3 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS NEAR 6 INCHES OVER MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN...ARE EXPECTED IN ASSOCIATION WITH EMILIA...GENERALLY BETWEEN PUNTA SAN TELMO AND CABO CORRIENTES. REPEATING THE 500 AM PDT POSITION...17.9 N...107.0 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 800 AM PDT. $$ FORECASTER STEWART ** WTSR20 WSSS 230600 *** NO STORM WARNING= ** WTPQ20 BABJ 231200 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TY KAEMI 0605 (0605) INITIAL TIME 231200 UTC 00HR 20.0N 125.7E 960HPA 40M/S 30KTS 430KM 50KTS 120KM P12HR NW 20KM/H P+24HR 22.4N 122.7E 960HPA 40M/S P+48HR 24.3N 120.0E 975HPA 30M/S P+72HR 27.0N 118.5E 990HPA 20M/S= ** WTJP21 RJTD 231200 *** WARNING 231200. WARNING VALID 241200. WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS. TYPHOON WARNING. TYPHOON 0605 KAEMI (0605) 955 HPA AT 20.1N 125.5E SEA SOUTH OF OKINAWA MOVING NORTHWEST 13 KNOTS. POSITION FAIR. MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 60 MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 260 MILES SOUTH SEMICIRCLE AND 150 MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION FOR 241200UTC AT 22.1N 122.6E WITH 80 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 950 HPA, MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. FORECAST POSITION FOR 251200UTC AT 23.7N 120.0E WITH 150 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 965 HPA, MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. FORECAST POSITION FOR 261200UTC AT 24.8N 116.4E WITH 220 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 980 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 231200 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TY 0605 KAEMI (0605) ANALYSIS PSTN 231200UTC 20.1N 125.5E FAIR MOVE NW 13KT PRES 955HPA MXWD 080KT 50KT 60NM 30KT 260NM SOUTH 150NM NORTH FORECAST 24HF 241200UTC 22.1N 122.6E 80NM 70% MOVE WNW 08KT PRES 950HPA MXWD 080KT 48HF 251200UTC 23.7N 120.0E 150NM 70% MOVE WNW 07KT PRES 965HPA MXWD 065KT 72HF 261200UTC 24.8N 116.4E 220NM 70% MOVE W 08KT PRES 980HPA MXWD 055KT = ** WTPZ31 KNHC 231418 *** TCPEP1 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM EMILIA ADVISORY NUMBER 9 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062006 800 AM PDT SUN JUL 23 2006 ...EMILIA GAINING STRENGTH AS IT MOVES AWAY FROM MEXICO... ...TROPICAL STORM WATCH DISCONTINUED BUT HEAVY RAINFALL STILL A THREAT... AT 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC... THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE PACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 800 AM PDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM EMILIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 107.4 WEST OR ABOUT 195 MILES...310 KM...SOUTHWEST OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO AND ABOUT 370 MILES...595 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO. EMILIA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/HR... AND A MOTION BETWEEN WEST-NORTHWEST AND NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...EMILIA WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MOVE AWAY FROM THE MAINLAND COAST OF MEXICO. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 65 MPH...100 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS... AND EMILIA COULD BECOME A HURRICANE LATER TODAY OR ON MONDAY. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES...140 KM FROM THE CENTER. EARLIER THIS MORNING...A SHIP LOCATED WEST OF MANZANILLO MEXICO REPORTED SUSTAINED WINDS OF 37 MPH...59 KM/HR. THE THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 994 MB...29.35 INCHES. STORM TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 3 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS NEAR 6 INCHES OVER MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN...ARE EXPECTED IN ASSOCIATION WITH EMILIA...GENERALLY BETWEEN PUNTA SAN TELMO AND CABO CORRIENTES. REPEATING THE 800 AM PDT POSITION...18.1 N...107.4 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB. THIS WILL BE THE LAST PUBLIC ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON EMILIA UNLESS IT BECOMES A THREAT TO LAND AGAIN. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON EMILIA CAN BE FOUND IN FORECAST/ADVISORY AND FORECAST DISCUSSION PRODUCTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER. $$ FORECASTER STEWART ** WTPZ21 KNHC 231419 *** TCMEP1 TROPICAL STORM EMILIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 9 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062006 1500 UTC SUN JUL 23 2006 AT 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC... THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE PACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.1N 107.4W AT 23/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 994 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. 50 KT....... 30NE 25SE 15SW 20NW. 34 KT....... 75NE 60SE 30SW 50NW. 12 FT SEAS..130NE 80SE 50SW 130NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.1N 107.4W AT 23/1500Z AT 23/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.9N 107.0W FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 18.8N 108.5W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 10SE 10SW 10NW. 50 KT... 35NE 30SE 20SW 25NW. 34 KT... 80NE 75SE 45SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 19.5N 110.1W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 15SE 15SW 15NW. 50 KT... 40NE 35SE 25SW 30NW. 34 KT... 90NE 85SE 55SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 20.2N 111.5W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 15SE 15SW 15NW. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...100NE 95SE 65SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 20.9N 113.0W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...110NE 100SE 70SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 22.3N 115.7W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 35NE 25SE 15SW 25NW. 34 KT...100NE 90SE 60SW 90NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 27/1200Z 24.0N 118.5W...DISSIPATING MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 28/1200Z 26.0N 121.5W...REMNANT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.1N 107.4W NEXT ADVISORY AT 23/2100Z $$ FORECASTER STEWART ** WTPN31 PGTW 231500 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TYPHOON 06W (KAEMI) WARNING NR 023 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 231200Z --- NEAR 20.2N 125.9E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 330 DEGREES AT 11 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 20.2N 125.9E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 240000Z --- 21.7N 124.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 241200Z --- 23.0N 122.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 250000Z --- 24.2N 121.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 10 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 251200Z --- 25.1N 119.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 261200Z --- 26.7N 116.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 231500Z POSITION NEAR 20.6N 125.5E. TYPHOON (TY) 06W (KAEMI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 375 NM SOUTHEAST OF TAIPEI, TAIWAN, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 231200Z IS 28 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 232100Z, 240300Z, 240900Z AND 241500Z.// ** WTPZ41 KNHC 231440 *** TCDEP1 TROPICAL STORM EMILIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 9 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062006 800 AM PDT SUN JUL 23 2006 CONVECTION HAS INCREASED MARKEDLY DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS...AND BOTH CONVENTIONAL AND MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE EMILIA HAS BECOME MUCH BETTER ORGANIZED. THE INTENSITY HAS BEEN INCREASED TO 55 KT BASED ON A DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T3.5 FROM TAFB...A DATA T-NUMBER OF T3.5 FROM SAB...AND A UW-CIMSS 3-H AVERAGE ADT OF T3.6/57 KT. THERE REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXACT POSITION AND FORWARD MOTION OF EMILIA...BUT MY BEST ESTIMATE IS 300/09 KT BASED ON LIMITED MICROWAVE SATELLITE DATA. A LARGE AND RATHER STOUT MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. AND EXTENDING SOUTH AND SOUTHEASTWARD INTO MEXICO IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN SLIGHTLY BUT BASICALLY REMAIN INTACT FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. AS SUCH...THE EAST TO SOUTHEASTERLY DEEP-LAYER STEERING FLOW ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE RIDGE SHOULD KEEP EMILIA MOVING IN A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWEST TO NORTHWESTWARD DIRECTION. THE MAJORITY OF THE NHC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS SCENARIO. THE EXCEPTIONS ARE THE GFS AND THE GFS ENSEMBLE MODELS WHICH TAKE EMILIA QUICKLY WESTWARD FROM ITS CURRENT POSITION...WHICH SEEMS RATHER UNLIKELY AT THIS TIME. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS VERY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS TRACK AND THE CONU CONSENSUS MODEL. NOW THAT CENTRAL DEEP CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED AND RECENT AMSU AND AMSR MICROWAVE DATA INDICATE AN EYEWALL WAS FORMING...EMILIA IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY AT A FASTER RATE THAN PAST TRENDS HAVE BEEN. IN FACT...THE LOW SHEAR ENVIRONMENT...IMPROVING OUTFLOW PATTERN IN ALL QUADRANTS...AND NEAR-30C SSTS SUGGEST THAT EMILIA MAY BEGIN A PERIOD OF RAPID INTENSIFICATION WITHIN THE NEXT 6-12 HOURS. THE RESULT WOULD BE A STRONGER CYCLONE THROUGH 48 HOURS...AFTER WHICH WEAKENING IS EXPECTED DUE TO EMILIA MOVING OVER MUCH COOLER WATER. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 23/1500Z 18.1N 107.4W 55 KT 12HR VT 24/0000Z 18.8N 108.5W 65 KT 24HR VT 24/1200Z 19.5N 110.1W 75 KT 36HR VT 25/0000Z 20.2N 111.5W 80 KT 48HR VT 25/1200Z 20.9N 113.0W 80 KT 72HR VT 26/1200Z 22.3N 115.7W 55 KT 96HR VT 27/1200Z 24.0N 118.5W 35 KT...DISSIPATING 120HR VT 28/1200Z 26.0N 121.5W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW $$ FORECASTER STEWART ** WTPZ45 KNHC 231456 *** TCDEP5 HURRICANE DANIEL DISCUSSION NUMBER 27 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052006 800 AM PDT SUN JUL 23 2006 DANIEL REMAINS AN IMPRESSIVE CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE IN SATELLITE IMAGERY. DESPITE MOVING OVER SLIGHTLY COOLER WATERS....CLOUDS TOPS HAVE COOLED ONCE AGAIN AND THE EYE HAS BECOME MORE DISTINCT. A BLEND OF SUBJECTIVE SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES YIELDS AN AVERAGE OF 115 KT...WHILE UW-CIMSS THREE-HOURLY AVERAGE RAW ADT ESTIMATES ARE T6.3 ABOUT 122 KT. THEREFORE...THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 115 KT. EVEN THOUGH THE HURRICANE HAS BEEN FORECAST TO SOON SLOW DOWN... DANIEL CONTINUES TO MOVE STEADILY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AND THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 285/12. THE CYCLONE CONTINUES TO BE STEERED BY A STRONG MID-TO-UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO ITS NORTH...WHICH MOST OF THE MODELS HAVE BEEN FORECASTING TO WEAKEN. UNCERTAINTIES IN THE FORECAST TRACK AFTER 72 HOURS EXIST AS A RESULT OF A RATHER LARGE SPREAD IN THE DYNAMICAL MODEL TRACKS. BOTH THE GFDL AND GFS SIGNIFICANTLY BREAK DOWN THE RIDGE IN THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS. HOWEVER...BOTH MODELS HAVE VASTLY DIFFERENT SOLUTIONS. THE GFS SLOWS THE SPEED OF DANIEL TO 5 KT IN 24 HOURS AND THEN 2 KT OR LESS BETWEEN 36 AND 96 HOURS...WHILE THE GFDL TURNS DANIEL NORTHWARD JUST WEST OF 140W. IN CONTRAST...THE UKMET AND NOGAPS KEEPS A FAIRLY STRONG RIDGE THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD WHICH KEEPS DANIEL ON A STEADY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK. SINCE IT DOES NOT APPEAR THAT THE RIDGE WILL WEAKEN AS MUCH AS THE GFS/GFDL SOLUTIONS THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK WILL MAINTAIN A GENERALLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION...ALTHOUGH A BIT SLOWER THAN THE CURRENT SPEED. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SLOWER THAN THE UKMET BUT IS CLOSE TO THE NOGAPS AND GFDL/UKMET/NOGAPS MODEL CONSENSUS. DANIEL IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER 25C SSTS FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS... AND THEN MOVE OVER ONLY SLIGHTLY COOLER WATER. VERTICAL SHEAR IS FORECAST BY THE GFS-BASED SHIPS MODEL TO REMAIN LOW THROUGH 96 HOURS AND THEN INCREASE TO 15-20 KT FROM THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST. AS A RESULT...THE SHIPS MODEL WEAKENS DANIEL SIGNIFICANTLY AT DAYS 4 AND 5. HOWEVER...THE LARGE SAMPLING RADIUS USED BY THE SHIPS MODEL APPEARS TO BE RESULTING IN AN OVERESTIMATE OF THE SHEAR SINCE BOTH IT AND THE OTHER GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE DANIEL IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO A LIGHT WIND REGIME THAT IS EXPECTED TO EXIST BETWEEN SEVERAL SMALL UPPER LEVEL LOWS AROUND THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS. LOWER SHEAR CONDITIONS COMBINED WITH SSTS NEAR 25C MAY RESULT IN DANIEL NOT WEAKENING AS MUCH AS CURRENTLY INDICATED IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST AND BY THE SHIPS MODEL. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 23/1500Z 14.9N 135.7W 115 KT 12HR VT 24/0000Z 15.4N 137.3W 105 KT 24HR VT 24/1200Z 15.9N 139.1W 95 KT 36HR VT 25/0000Z 16.3N 140.4W 85 KT 48HR VT 25/1200Z 16.8N 141.8W 75 KT 72HR VT 26/1200Z 17.8N 144.0W 65 KT 96HR VT 27/1200Z 19.0N 147.5W 55 KT 120HR VT 28/1200Z 20.0N 152.5W 45 KT $$ FORECASTER BROWN/STEWART ** WTPZ25 KNHC 231456 *** TCMEP5 HURRICANE DANIEL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 27 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052006 1500 UTC SUN JUL 23 2006 HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.9N 135.7W AT 23/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 10 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 12 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 948 MB EYE DIAMETER 20 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 115 KT WITH GUSTS TO 140 KT. 64 KT....... 30NE 25SE 25SW 30NW. 50 KT....... 60NE 45SE 45SW 60NW. 34 KT.......120NE 90SE 90SW 120NW. 12 FT SEAS..420NE 360SE 300SW 360NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.9N 135.7W AT 23/1500Z AT 23/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.8N 135.2W FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 15.4N 137.3W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 25SE 25SW 30NW. 50 KT... 60NE 45SE 45SW 60NW. 34 KT...120NE 90SE 90SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 15.9N 139.1W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 25SE 25SW 30NW. 50 KT... 60NE 45SE 45SW 60NW. 34 KT...120NE 90SE 90SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 16.3N 140.4W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 20SE 20SW 25NW. 50 KT... 55NE 40SE 40SW 55NW. 34 KT...110NE 85SE 85SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 16.8N 141.8W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 50 KT... 55NE 40SE 40SW 55NW. 34 KT...110NE 85SE 85SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 17.8N 144.0W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...100NE 80SE 80SW 100NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 27/1200Z 19.0N 147.5W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 28/1200Z 20.0N 152.5W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.9N 135.7W NEXT ADVISORY AT 23/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BROWN/STEWART ** WTPH20 RPMM 231200 *** TTT TYPHOON WARNING 11 AT 1200 23 JULY TYPHOON (KAEMI)(0605) WAS LOCATED BY SATELLITE AND SURFACE DATA AT TWO ZERO POINT ONE NORTH ONE TWO FIVE POINT FIVE EAST FORECAST TO MOVE WEST NORTHWEST AT ZERO FIVE METERS PER SECOND ROUGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS WITHIN THREE FIVE ZERO KILOMETERS SOUTH SEMI-CIRCLE TWO FIVE ZERO KILOMETERS ESLEWHERE ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE NINE SIX THREE HECTOPASCALS MAXIMUM WINDS FOUR ONE METERS PER SECOND NEAR CENTER THREE THREE METERS PER SECOND WITHIN ONE FIVE ZERO KILOMETER RADIUS ONE THREE METERS PER SECOND WITHIN THREE FIVE ZERO KILOMETERS SOUTH SEMI-CIRCLE TWO FIVE ZERO KILOMETERS ELSEWHERE FORECAST POSITIONS AT 241200 TWO TWO POINT SEVEN NORTH ONE TWO TWO POINT TWO EAST AT 251200 TWO FOUR POINT EIGHT NORTH ONE ONE NINE POINT FOUR EAST ALL SHIPS WITHIN TYPHOON AREA ARE REQUESTED TO SEND THREE HOURLY WEATHER REPORTS TO WEATHER MANILA PD WEATHER MANILA= ** WTPQ20 BABJ 231500 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TY KAEMI 0605 (0605) INITIAL TIME 231500 UTC 00HR 20.5N 125.3E 960HPA 40M/S 30KTS 430KM 50KTS 120KM P12HR NW 20KM/H= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 231500 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TY 0605 KAEMI (0605) ANALYSIS PSTN 231500UTC 20.5N 125.1E FAIR MOVE NNW 11KT PRES 955HPA MXWD 080KT 50KT 60NM 30KT 260NM SOUTH 150NM NORTH FORECAST 24HF 241500UTC 22.4N 122.1E 80NM 70% MOVE WNW 09KT PRES 950HPA MXWD 080KT 45HF 251200UTC 23.7N 120.0E 150NM 70% MOVE WNW 07KT PRES 965HPA MXWD 065KT 69HF 261200UTC 24.8N 116.4E 220NM 70% MOVE W 08KT PRES 980HPA MXWD 055KT = ** WTJP31 RJTD 231500 *** WARNING 231500. WARNING VALID 241500. TYPHOON WARNING. TYPHOON 0605 KAEMI (0605) 955 HPA AT 20.5N 125.1E SEA SOUTH OF OKINAWA MOVING NORTHNORTHWEST 11 KNOTS. POSITION FAIR. MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 60 MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 260 MILES SOUTH SEMICIRCLE AND 150 MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION FOR 241500UTC AT 22.4N 122.1E WITH 80 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 950 HPA, MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPN32 PHNC 231600 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// REF/A/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN/PEARL HARBOR HI/231530JUL2006// AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL STORM 06E (EMILIA) WARNING NR 009 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 231200Z --- NEAR 17.9N 107.0W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 300 DEGREES AT 09 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 065 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 17.9N 107.0W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 240000Z --- 18.8N 108.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 241200Z --- 19.5N 110.1W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 250000Z --- 20.2N 111.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 08 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 251200Z --- 20.9N 113.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 261200Z --- 22.3N 115.7W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 065 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 08 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 271200Z --- 24.0N 118.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 281200Z --- 26.0N 121.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: 231600Z POSITION NEAR 18.2N 107.5W. AT 231200Z TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED 412 NM W OF ACAPULCO. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 231200Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 232200Z, 240400Z, 241000Z AND 241600Z. REFER TO HURRICANE 05E (DANIEL) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PHNC) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.// ** WTPN31 PHNC 231600 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// REF/A/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN/PEARL HARBOR HI/231535JUL2006// AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. HURRICANE 05E (DANIEL) WARNING NR 027 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 231200Z --- NEAR 14.8N 135.2W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 285 DEGREES AT 12 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 010 NM POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 14.8N 135.2W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 240000Z --- 15.4N 137.3W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 241200Z --- 15.9N 139.1W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 250000Z --- 16.3N 140.4W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 07 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 251200Z --- 16.8N 141.8W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 261200Z --- 17.8N 144.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 09 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 271200Z --- 19.0N 147.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 065 KT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 12 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 281200Z --- 20.0N 152.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT --- REMARKS: 231600Z POSITION NEAR 15.0N 135.9W. AT 231200Z HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED 1177 NM E OF HILO. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 231200Z IS 38 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 232200Z, 240400Z, 241000Z AND 241600Z. REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 06E (EMILIA) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PHNC) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.// ** WTNT80 EGRR 231719 *** MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 23.07.2006 TROPICAL STORM EMILIA ANALYSED POSITION : 18.9N 107.2W ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP062006 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 23.07.2006 18.9N 107.2W WEAK 00UTC 24.07.2006 18.0N 108.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 24.07.2006 19.2N 109.9W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 25.07.2006 20.1N 111.5W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 25.07.2006 21.1N 113.3W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 26.07.2006 21.9N 115.6W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 26.07.2006 23.0N 117.7W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 27.07.2006 23.8N 119.5W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 27.07.2006 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH HURRICANE DANIEL ANALYSED POSITION : 14.9N 135.1W ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP052006 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 23.07.2006 14.9N 135.1W STRONG 00UTC 24.07.2006 15.5N 137.6W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 24.07.2006 16.3N 139.9W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 25.07.2006 16.8N 142.1W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 25.07.2006 17.0N 144.2W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 26.07.2006 17.4N 146.0W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 26.07.2006 17.9N 148.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 27.07.2006 18.6N 150.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 27.07.2006 18.9N 153.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 28.07.2006 18.9N 154.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 28.07.2006 19.0N 160.3W WEAK WEAKENING RAPIDLY 00UTC 29.07.2006 19.0N 163.8W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 29.07.2006 19.1N 167.4W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 231719