** WTPQ20 BABJ 230600 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TY KAEMI 0605 (0605) INITIAL TIME 230600 UTC 00HR 19.3N 126.6E 960HPA 40M/S 30KTS 430KM 50KTS 120KM P12HR NW 15KM/H P+24HR 21.6N 124.1E 960HPA 40M/S P+48HR 23.7N 121.4E 970HPA 35M/S P+72HR 25.9N 118.7E 990HPA 20M/S= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 230600 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TY 0605 KAEMI (0605) ANALYSIS PSTN 230600UTC 19.0N 126.5E FAIR MOVE WNW 09KT PRES 955HPA MXWD 080KT 50KT 60NM 30KT 240NM SOUTH 150NM NORTH FORECAST 24HF 240600UTC 21.6N 124.2E 80NM 70% MOVE NW 08KT PRES 950HPA MXWD 080KT 48HF 250600UTC 23.2N 120.8E 150NM 70% MOVE WNW 08KT PRES 965HPA MXWD 070KT 72HF 260600UTC 25.1N 118.0E 220NM 70% MOVE WNW 07KT PRES 975HPA MXWD 060KT = ** WTJP21 RJTD 230600 *** WARNING 230600. WARNING VALID 240600. WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS. TYPHOON WARNING. TYPHOON 0605 KAEMI (0605) 955 HPA AT 19.0N 126.5E SEA EAST OF PHILIPPINES MOVING WESTNORTHWEST 09 KNOTS. POSITION FAIR. MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 60 MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 240 MILES SOUTH SEMICIRCLE AND 150 MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION FOR 240600UTC AT 21.6N 124.2E WITH 80 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 950 HPA, MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. FORECAST POSITION FOR 250600UTC AT 23.2N 120.8E WITH 150 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 965 HPA, MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. FORECAST POSITION FOR 260600UTC AT 25.1N 118.0E WITH 220 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 975 HPA, MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTKO20 RKSL 230600 *** KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 9 NAME TY 0605 KAEMI ANALYSIS POSITION 230600UTC 19.1N 126.5E MOVEMENT WNW 11KT PRES/VMAX 955HPA 76KT FORECAST 24HR POSITION 240600UTC 21.8N 123.9E WITHIN 80NM PRES/VMAX 955HPA 76KT 48HR POSITION 250600UTC 24.2N 121.0E WITHIN 135NM PRES/VMAX 965HPA 68KT 72HR POSITION 260600UTC 25.7N 117.9E WITHIN 215NM PRES/VMAX 980HPA 56KT KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION. ** WTIN20 DEMS 230715 *** TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK ------------------------ DEMS -RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONES NEW DELHI 23-07-2006(.) TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NORTH INDIAN OCEAN (THE BAY OF BENGAL AND THE ARABIAN SEA ) VALID FOR NEXT 24 HOURS ISSUED AT 0600 UTC (.) CONVECTIVE CLOUDS ARE SEEN OVER NORTHWEST AND EAST ARABIAN SEA AND PARTS OF HEAD AND CENTRAL BAY OF BENGAL AND ANDAMAN SEA (.) RIDGE LINE AT 200 HPA RUNS ALONG 31 DEG. NORTH OVER INDIAN REGION (.) MSG OVER ?????????? ** WTPN32 PHNC 230400 COR *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// REF/A/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN/PEARL HARBOR HI/230330JUL2006// AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL STORM 06E (EMILIA) WARNING NR 007A CORRECTED 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 230000Z --- NEAR 17.0N 105.0W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 330 DEGREES AT 10 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 17.0N 105.0W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 231200Z --- 18.5N 106.3W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 240000Z --- 19.7N 108.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 065 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 241200Z --- 20.5N 109.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 08 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 250000Z --- 21.2N 111.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 260000Z --- 23.0N 114.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 07 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 270000Z --- 24.5N 116.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 280000Z --- 26.0N 120.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: 230400Z POSITION NEAR 17.5N 105.4W. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 230000Z IS 12 FEET. AT 230000Z TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED 293 NM W OF ACAPULCO. NEXT WARNINGS AT 231000Z, 231600Z, 232200Z AND 240400Z. REFER TO HURRICANE 05E (DANIEL) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PHNC) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES. JUSTIFICATION FOR CORRECTION: CORRECTED REFERENCE DTG.// ** WTPQ30 RJTD 230600 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING REASONING NO.11 FOR TY 0605 KAEMI (0605) 1.GENERAL COMMENTS REASONING OF PROGNOSIS THIS TIME IS SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS ONE. POSITION FORECAST IS MAINLY BASED ON NWP AND PERSISTENCY. 2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION NOTHING PARTICULAR TO EXPLAIN. 3.MOTION FORECAST POSITION ACCURACY AT 230600 UTC IS FAIR. TY WILL MOVE AT THE SAME SPEED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TY WILL MOVE NORTHWEST FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. 4.INTENSITY FORECAST TY WILL KEEP PRESENT INTENSITY FOR NEXT 24 HOURS. FI-NUMBER WILL BE 5.0 AFTER 24 HOURS.= ** WTPZ45 KNHC 230835 *** TCDEP5 HURRICANE DANIEL DISCUSSION NUMBER 26 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052006 200 AM PDT SUN JUL 23 2006 INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES OVER THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY WARM AND THE OVERALL CONVECTIVE PATTERN HAS BECOME ASYMMETRIC ABOUT THE EYE. IT WOULD APPEAR THAT DANIEL IS BEGINNING TO FEEL THE INFLUENCE OF COOLER WATERS. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 115 KT WHICH IS A COMPROMISE BETWEEN 102 KT FROM SAB AND 127 KT FROM TAFB. THREE- HOUR AVERAGE ADT VALUES HAVE ALSO BEEN STEADY AT 115 KT. BEING AT OR VERY NEAR THE 26C ISOTHERM...DANIEL IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WEAKENING THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. MODERATE VERTICAL SHEAR MAY ALSO BEGIN CONTRIBUTING TO THE WEAKENING IN THE 36-48 HOUR TIME FRAME. STILL...DANIEL DISPLAYS CHARACTERISTICS OF AN ANNULAR HURRICANE AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS WEAKENING AT A SLOWER RATE THAN USUAL GIVEN THE AFOREMENTIONED ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS. THIS FORECAST IS ALSO HIGHER THAN THE SHIPS MODEL...WHICH STUDIES HAVE SHOWN WEAKENS CYCLONES TOO QUICKLY IN THESE SITUATIONS. DANIEL IS CURRENTLY BEING STEERED BY A STRONG MID-TO-UPPER TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE TO ITS NORTH RESULTING IN A WEST TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION OR 280/12. THIS OVERALL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS. THEREAFTER...MOST OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS INDICATE A PRONOUNCED WEAKNESS DEVELOPING WITHIN THE RIDGE BETWEEN 135W-140W. THIS EVOLUTION IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN A REDUCTION IN FORWARD SPEED AS THE CYCLONE MOVES INTO THE WEAKNESS. AS WOULD BE EXPECTED IN LIGHT STEERING FLOW CONDITIONS...DYNAMICAL MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE WITH THE GFS AND GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN SHOWING DANIEL BECOMING...TEMPORARILY..NEARLY STATIONARY AT 48 HOURS WHILE THE UKMET KEEPS THE CYCLONE MOVING ALONG AT A STEADY CLIP. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SPLITS THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THESE TWO SCENARIOS BY SHOWING DANIEL SLOWING AS IT MOVES INTO THE WEAKNESS WITHIN THE RIDGE BETWEEN 36 AND 48 HOURS. AS DANIEL BECOMES INCREASINGLY SHALLOW DURING THE LATER PARTS OF THE FORECAST...THE STEERING IS EXPECTED TO BECOME DOMINATED BY THE LOW LEVEL EASTERLIES WHICH SHOULD ALLOW THE CYCLONE TO SPEED UP AGAIN AND TURN MORE TOWARDS THE WEST. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 23/0900Z 14.7N 134.6W 115 KT 12HR VT 23/1800Z 15.0N 135.9W 100 KT 24HR VT 24/0600Z 15.6N 137.7W 90 KT 36HR VT 24/1800Z 16.0N 139.2W 80 KT 48HR VT 25/0600Z 16.4N 140.2W 70 KT 72HR VT 26/0600Z 17.2N 142.0W 60 KT 96HR VT 27/0600Z 18.5N 145.0W 50 KT 120HR VT 28/0600Z 20.0N 150.0W 40 KT $$ FORECASTER RHOME ** WTPZ25 KNHC 230835 *** TCMEP5 HURRICANE DANIEL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 26 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052006 0900 UTC SUN JUL 23 2006 HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.7N 134.6W AT 23/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 10 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 12 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 948 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 115 KT WITH GUSTS TO 140 KT. 64 KT....... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 50 KT....... 60NE 45SE 45SW 60NW. 34 KT.......120NE 90SE 90SW 120NW. 12 FT SEAS..420NE 360SE 360SW 360NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.7N 134.6W AT 23/0900Z AT 23/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.5N 133.9W FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 15.0N 135.9W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 50 KT... 60NE 45SE 45SW 60NW. 34 KT...120NE 90SE 90SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 15.6N 137.7W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 50 KT... 60NE 45SE 45SW 60NW. 34 KT...120NE 90SE 90SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 16.0N 139.2W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 20SE 20SW 25NW. 50 KT... 55NE 45SE 45SW 55NW. 34 KT...110NE 90SE 85SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 16.4N 140.2W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...100NE 80SE 80SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z 17.2N 142.0W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 35SE 35SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 70SE 75SW 90NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 27/0600Z 18.5N 145.0W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 28/0600Z 20.0N 150.0W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.7N 134.6W NEXT ADVISORY AT 23/1500Z $$ FORECASTER RHOME/PASCH ** WTPZ31 KNHC 230836 *** TCPEP1 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM EMILIA ADVISORY NUMBER 8 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062006 200 AM PDT SUN JUL 23 2006 ...EMILIA A LITTLE STRONGER...MOVING NORTHWESTWARD AND PARALLEL TO THE COAST OF MEXICO... A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE PACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO FROM FROM MANZANILLO TO CABO CORRIENTES. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 200 AM PDT...0900Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM EMILIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 106.5 WEST OR ABOUT 185 MILES...300 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO AND ABOUT 415 MILES...670 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO. EMILIA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/HR...AND A NORTHWESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS SHOULD REMAIN OFFSHORE. HOWEVER...ONLY A SLIGHT DEVIATION TO THE RIGHT OF THE FORECAST TRACK COULD BRING TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS TO THE COAST OF MEXICO LATER TODAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES...95 KM FROM THE CENTER. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB...29.53 INCHES. STORM TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 3 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS NEAR 6 INCHES OVER MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN...ARE EXPECTED IN ASSOCIATION WITH EMILIA...GENERALLY BETWEEN PUNTA SAN TELMO AND CABO CORRIENTES. REPEATING THE 200 AM PDT POSITION...17.8 N...106.5 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB. AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 500 AM PDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 800 AM PDT. $$ FORECASTER PASCH ** WTPZ21 KNHC 230836 *** TCMEP1 TROPICAL STORM EMILIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 8 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062006 0900 UTC SUN JUL 23 2006 A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE PACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO FROM FROM MANZANILLO TO CABO CORRIENTES. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.8N 106.5W AT 23/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 60 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT....... 50NE 30SE 30SW 50NW. 12 FT SEAS..125NE 50SE 50SW 125NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.8N 106.5W AT 23/0900Z AT 23/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.5N 106.1W FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 18.6N 107.7W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 25NE 0SE 0SW 25NW. 34 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 19.3N 109.2W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 20.0N 110.7W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 15NW. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 75NE 60SE 60SW 75NW. FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 20.7N 112.2W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 75SE 75SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z 22.0N 115.0W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 75SE 75SW 90NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 27/0600Z 23.5N 117.5W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 28/0600Z 25.5N 120.5W...DISSIPATING MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.8N 106.5W NEXT ADVISORY AT 23/1500Z $$ FORECASTER PASCH ** WTPZ41 KNHC 230847 *** TCDEP1 TROPICAL STORM EMILIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 8 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062006 200 AM PDT SUN JUL 23 2006 SEVERAL HOURS AGO...EMILIA WAS NOT LOOKING LIKE MUCH OF A TROPICAL STORM. THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER WAS ILL-DEFINED AT BEST ON VARIOUS MICROWAVE OVERPASSES...AND THERE WAS LITTLE OR NO EVIDENCE OF BANDING FEATURES ON GEOSTATIONARY IR IMAGES. IN FACT...A QUIKSCAT PASS FROM 0145 UTC SHOWED HIGHEST WINDS JUST BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH. HOWEVER THESE WERE LIKELY RAIN-CONTAMINATED VECTORS AND...ASSUMING THAT THE ACTUAL INTENSITY WAS 40 KT...IT COULD BE ASSUMED THAT THERE WAS SOME ATTENUATION OF THE SPEED MEASUREMENTS DUE TO PRECIPITATION. AN ALTERNATIVE INTERPRETATION WOULD BE THAT EMILIA WAS NOT QUITE AS STRONG AS ESTIMATED EARLIER. HAVING SAID THAT...LATEST IR IMAGES SHOW INCREASING CONVECTION WITH SOME BANDING FEATURES DEVELOPING. CURRENT INTENSITY IS SET AT 45 KT IN AGREEMENT WITH ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND AFWA. EMILIA SHOULD BE TRAVERSING WARM WATERS AND THE VERTICAL SHEAR IS FORECAST TO BECOME VERY WEAK WHICH WOULD FAVOR STRENGTHENING...POSSIBLY SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS JUST A LITTLE HIGHER THAN THE LATEST SHIPS GUIDANCE. THERE IS STILL CONSIDERABLE SPREAD IN CENTER FIXES...AS MUCH AS 75 N MI. HOWEVER THE VARIOUS MICROWAVE IMAGES...ESPECIALLY AN 0524 UTC AMSU-B PASS...SUGGESTED THAT THE CENTER IS TO THE WEST OF OUR PREVIOUS TRACK. INITIAL MOTION IS NOW ESTIMATED TO BE 310/10. ACCORDING TO THE GLOBAL MODELS...A LARGE AND POWERFUL MID-TROPOSPHERIC ANTICYCLONE IS PREDICTED TO REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE STEERING FLOW ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THIS ANTICYCLONE SHOULD BEGIN TO DOMINATE THE MOTION OF EMILIA WITHIN A COUPLE OF DAYS. APPARENTLY THE STORM IS ALREADY RESPONDING TO INCREASED RIDGING TO ITS NORTH SINCE THE HEADING SEEMS TO BE BENDING TO THE LEFT. BASED ON THE MORE WESTWARD TRACK AND THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SHIFTED TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS ONE. THIS IS FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE LATEST U.K. MET. OFFICE FORECAST TRACK AND A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT OF THE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS...CONU. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 23/0900Z 17.8N 106.5W 45 KT 12HR VT 23/1800Z 18.6N 107.7W 50 KT 24HR VT 24/0600Z 19.3N 109.2W 60 KT 36HR VT 24/1800Z 20.0N 110.7W 70 KT 48HR VT 25/0600Z 20.7N 112.2W 75 KT 72HR VT 26/0600Z 22.0N 115.0W 65 KT 96HR VT 27/0600Z 23.5N 117.5W 45 KT 120HR VT 28/0600Z 25.5N 120.5W 25 KT...DISSIPATING $$ FORECASTER PASCH ** WTPN31 PGTW 230900 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TYPHOON 06W (KAEMI) WARNING NR 022 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 230600Z --- NEAR 19.2N 126.5E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 310 DEGREES AT 11 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 19.2N 126.5E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 231800Z --- 20.6N 125.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 240600Z --- 22.0N 123.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 241800Z --- 23.2N 122.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 08 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 250600Z --- 23.9N 120.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 260600Z --- 25.7N 117.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 08 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 270600Z --- 28.5N 115.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 230900Z POSITION NEAR 19.5N 126.1E. TYPHOON (TY) 06W (KAEMI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 405 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF KAOHSIUNG, TAIWAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 230600Z IS 28 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 231500Z, 232100Z, 240300Z AND 240900Z.// ** WTPQ20 BABJ 230900 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TY KAEMI 0605 (0605) INITIAL TIME 230900 UTC 00HR 19.6N 126.1E 960HPA 40M/S 30KTS 430KM 50KTS 120KM P12HR NW 20KM/H P+24HR 22.2N 123.2E 960HPA 40M/S P+48HR 24.1N 120.4E 975HPA 30M/S P+72HR 26.3N 117.9E 990HPA 20M/S= ** WTJP31 RJTD 230900 *** WARNING 230900. WARNING VALID 240900. TYPHOON WARNING. TYPHOON 0605 KAEMI (0605) 955 HPA AT 19.5N 125.8E SEA EAST OF PHILIPPINES MOVING WESTNORTHWEST 12 KNOTS. POSITION FAIR. MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 60 MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 240 MILES SOUTH SEMICIRCLE AND 150 MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION FOR 240900UTC AT 21.7N 123.4E WITH 80 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 950 HPA, MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 230900 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TY 0605 KAEMI (0605) ANALYSIS PSTN 230900UTC 19.5N 125.8E FAIR MOVE WNW 12KT PRES 955HPA MXWD 080KT 50KT 60NM 30KT 240NM SOUTH 150NM NORTH FORECAST 24HF 240900UTC 21.7N 123.4E 80NM 70% MOVE NW 07KT PRES 950HPA MXWD 080KT 45HF 250600UTC 23.2N 120.8E 150NM 70% MOVE WNW 08KT PRES 965HPA MXWD 070KT 69HF 260600UTC 25.1N 118.0E 220NM 70% MOVE WNW 07KT PRES 975HPA MXWD 060KT = ** WTPH20 RPMM 230600 *** TTT TYPHOON WARNING 10 AT 0600 23 JULY TYPHOON (KAEMI) {0605} WAS LOCATED BY SATELLITE AND SURFACE DATA AT ONE NINE POINT ZERO NORTH ONE TWO SIX POINT SIX EAST FORECAST TO MOVE WEST NORTHWEST AT ZERO FOUR METER PER SECOND ROUGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS WITHIN THREE FIVE ZERO KILOMETERS SOUTH SEMI-CIRCLE TWO FIVE ZERO KILOMETERS ELSEWHERE ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE NINE SIX THREE HECTOPASCALS MAXIMUM WINDS FOUR ONE METERS PER SECOND NEAR CENTER THREE THREE METERS PER SECOND WITHIN ONE FIVE ZERO KILOMETER RADIUS ONE THREE METERS PER SECOND WITHIN THREE FIVE ZERO KILOMETERS SOUTH SEMI-CIRCLE TWO FIVE ZERO KILOMETERS ELSEWHERE FORECAST POSITIONS AT 240600 TWO ZERO POINT THREE NORTH ONE TWO THREE POINT THREE EAST AT 250600 TWO TWO POINT TWO NORTH ONE TWO ZERO POINT THREE EAST ALL SHIPS WITHIN TYPHOON AREA ARE REQUESTED TO SEND THREE-HOULY WEATHER REPORTS TO WEATHER MANILA PD WEATHER MANILA = ** WTPN31 PHNC 231000 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// REF/A/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN/PEARL HARBOR HI/230335JUL2006// AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. HURRICANE 05E (DANIEL) WARNING NR 026 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 230600Z --- NEAR 14.5N 133.9W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 280 DEGREES AT 12 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 010 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 14.5N 133.9W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 231800Z --- 15.0N 135.9W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 120 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 240600Z --- 15.6N 137.7W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 241800Z --- 16.0N 139.2W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 05 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 250600Z --- 16.4N 140.2W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 260600Z --- 17.2N 142.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 08 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 270600Z --- 18.5N 145.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 060 KT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 12 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 280600Z --- 20.0N 150.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT --- REMARKS: 231000Z POSITION NEAR 14.7N 134.6W. AT 230600Z HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED 1254 NM E OF HILO. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 230600Z IS 38 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 231600Z, 232200Z, 240400Z AND 241000Z. REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 06E (EMILIA) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PHNC) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.// ** WTPN32 PHNC 231000 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// REF/A/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN/PEARL HARBOR HI/230330JUL2006// AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL STORM 06E (EMILIA) WARNING NR 008 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 230600Z --- NEAR 17.5N 106.1W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 310 DEGREES AT 10 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 17.5N 106.1W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 231800Z --- 18.6N 107.7W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 060 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 240600Z --- 19.3N 109.2W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 241800Z --- 20.0N 110.7W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 08 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 250600Z --- 20.7N 112.2W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 260600Z --- 22.0N 115.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 07 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 270600Z --- 23.5N 117.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 280600Z --- 25.5N 120.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: 231000Z POSITION NEAR 17.9N 106.6W. AT 230600Z TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED 358 NM W OF ACAPULCO. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 230600Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 231600Z, 232200Z, 240400Z AND 241000Z. REFER TO HURRICANE 05E (DANIEL) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PHNC) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//