** WTSR20 WSSS 221800 *** NO STORM WARNING= ** WTPQ20 BABJ 230000 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TY KAEMI 0605 (0605) INITIAL TIME 230000 UTC 00HR 18.5N 127.6E 960HPA 40M/S 30KTS 430KM 50KTS 120KM P12HR NW 15KM/H P+24HR 21.1N 124.9E 960HPA 40M/S P+48HR 23.2N 122.3E 965HPA 38M/S P+72HR 25.0N 119.4E 985HPA 25M/S= ** WTJP21 RJTD 230000 *** WARNING 230000. WARNING VALID 240000. WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS. TYPHOON WARNING. TYPHOON 0605 KAEMI (0605) 955 HPA AT 18.5N 127.5E SEA EAST OF PHILIPPINES MOVING NORTHWEST 09 KNOTS. POSITION FAIR. MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 60 MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 240 MILES SOUTH SEMICIRCLE AND 150 MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION FOR 240000UTC AT 21.1N 125.2E WITH 80 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 950 HPA, MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. FORECAST POSITION FOR 250000UTC AT 23.4N 122.3E WITH 150 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 960 HPA, MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. FORECAST POSITION FOR 260000UTC AT 24.4N 119.0E WITH 220 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 970 HPA, MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 230000 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TY 0605 KAEMI (0605) ANALYSIS PSTN 230000UTC 18.5N 127.5E FAIR MOVE NW 09KT PRES 955HPA MXWD 080KT 50KT 60NM 30KT 240NM SOUTH 150NM NORTH FORECAST 24HF 240000UTC 21.1N 125.2E 80NM 70% MOVE NW 08KT PRES 950HPA MXWD 080KT 48HF 250000UTC 23.4N 122.3E 150NM 70% MOVE NW 08KT PRES 960HPA MXWD 075KT 72HF 260000UTC 24.4N 119.0E 220NM 70% MOVE W 07KT PRES 970HPA MXWD 065KT = ** WTPQ30 RJTD 230000 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING REASONING NO.10 FOR TY 0605 KAEMI (0605) 1.GENERAL COMMENTS REASONING OF PROGNOSIS THIS TIME IS SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS ONE. POSITION FORECAST IS MAINLY BASED ON NWP AND PERSISTENCY. 2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION NOTHING PARTICULAR TO EXPLAIN. 3.MOTION FORECAST POSITION ACCURACY AT 230000 UTC IS FAIR. TY WILL MOVE AT THE SAME SPEED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TY WILL MOVE NORTHWEST FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. 4.INTENSITY FORECAST TY WILL KEEP PRESENT INTENSITY FOR NEXT 24 HOURS. FI-NUMBER WILL BE 5.0 AFTER 24 HOURS.= ** WTPN31 PGTW 230300 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TYPHOON 06W (KAEMI) WARNING NR 021 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 230000Z --- NEAR 18.6N 127.5E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 320 DEGREES AT 09 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 18.6N 127.5E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 231200Z --- 20.0N 126.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 240000Z --- 21.3N 125.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 241200Z --- 22.4N 123.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 10 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 250000Z --- 23.5N 121.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 260000Z --- 25.4N 119.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 09 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 270000Z --- 28.7N 117.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 355 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 280000Z --- 31.5N 117.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 015 KT, GUSTS 025 KT DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 230300Z POSITION NEAR 18.9N 127.2E. TYPHOON (TY) 06W (KAEMI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 475 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF KAOHSIUNG, TAIWAN, HAS TRACKED NORTH- WESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 230000Z IS 28 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 230900Z, 231500Z, 232100Z AND 240300Z.// ** WTPZ45 KNHC 230250 *** TCDEP5 HURRICANE DANIEL DISCUSSION NUMBER 25 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052006 800 PM PDT SAT JUL 22 2006 VISIBLE AND ENHANCED INFRARED IMAGERY DEPICT A LESS IMPRESSIVE EYE FEATURE THAN 6 HOURS AGO...RAGGED AND NOT QUITE AS WARM. HOWEVER...EYEWALL TEMPERATURES DECREASED ENOUGH TO INCREASE THE DVORAK FINAL T AND UW/CIMSS ADT NUMBERS TO 127 KT. BASED ON THE DVORAK NUMBERS...THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL REMAIN AT 125 KT. THIS MAY BE A SHORT TERM TREND SINCE THE LAST FEW IMAGES INDICATE SOME WARMING OVER THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE. DANIEL SHOULD REMAIN OVER WARM WATER FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS BEFORE SSTS BEGIN TO DROP OFF SOME...TO AROUND 25C. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES COOLER THAN 24C ARE NOT EXPECTED SO ONLY A SLOW WEAKENING TREND IS FORECAST...SIMILAR TO THE GFDL. THE INITIAL MOTION IS 285/11...JUST TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK. DANIEL IS CURRENTLY BEING STEERED BY A STRONG MID-TO-UPPER TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE TO THE NORTH...AND IS ANTICIPATED TO REMAIN WITHIN THE DEEP WEST-NORTHWESTWARD FLOW FOR THE NEXT 36 HOURS. AFTER THAT...THERE IS SOMEWHAT OF A DIFFERENCE IN HOW THE MODELS HANDLE TWO POSSIBLE KEY FEATURES. THE NOGAPS/GFDL/GFS AND THE ECMWF ALL INDICATE A PRONOUNCED WEAKNESS DEVELOPING WITHIN THE RIDGE NEAR 140W IN 48 HOURS CREATED BY A COMBINATION OF TWO SYNOPTIC FEATURES...A RETROGRADING MID-LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY ALONG 130W AND A BAROCLINIC SYSTEM ALONG 154W...APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE MODELS CONSEQUENTLY SUGGEST A SIGNIFICANT REDUCTION IN FORWARD SPEED AS DANIEL MOVES INTO THE BREAK IN THE RIDGE. THE UKMET...ON THE OTHER HAND...DISSIPATES THE TROUGH ALONG 130W AND SHOWS A SLOWER PROGRESSION OF THE APPROACHING SYSTEM FROM THE NORTHWEST...PROLONGING A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD STEERING FLOW...WHICH PLACES DANIEL JUST SOUTHEAST OF THE BIG ISLAND OF HAWAII IN 5 DAYS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST ASSUMES SOME WEAKENING IN THE RIDGE WILL OCCUR...AND IS A LITTLE SLOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...BUT STILL FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 23/0300Z 14.4N 133.2W 125 KT 12HR VT 23/1200Z 14.8N 134.5W 115 KT 24HR VT 24/0000Z 15.4N 136.4W 100 KT 36HR VT 24/1200Z 15.9N 138.0W 90 KT 48HR VT 25/0000Z 16.3N 139.3W 80 KT 72HR VT 26/0000Z 17.0N 141.0W 70 KT 96HR VT 27/0000Z 18.5N 144.0W 60 KT 120HR VT 28/0000Z 20.0N 148.5W 50 KT $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS/FRANKLIN ** WTPZ25 KNHC 230250 *** TCMEP5 HURRICANE DANIEL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 25 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052006 0300 UTC SUN JUL 23 2006 HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.4N 133.2W AT 23/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 10 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 11 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 935 MB EYE DIAMETER 25 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 125 KT WITH GUSTS TO 155 KT. 64 KT....... 45NE 35SE 35SW 45NW. 50 KT....... 70NE 60SE 60SW 70NW. 34 KT.......110NE 90SE 90SW 110NW. 12 FT SEAS..400NE 350SE 250SW 350NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.4N 133.2W AT 23/0300Z AT 23/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.3N 132.6W FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 14.8N 134.5W MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT. 64 KT... 45NE 35SE 35SW 45NW. 50 KT... 70NE 60SE 60SW 70NW. 34 KT...110NE 90SE 90SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 15.4N 136.4W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 64 KT... 45NE 35SE 35SW 45NW. 50 KT... 70NE 60SE 60SW 70NW. 34 KT...110NE 90SE 90SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 15.9N 138.0W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 45NE 35SE 35SW 45NW. 50 KT... 70NE 60SE 60SW 70NW. 34 KT...110NE 90SE 90SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 16.3N 139.3W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 50SE 50SW 60NW. 34 KT...100NE 80SE 80SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 17.0N 141.0W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 50SE 50SW 60NW. 34 KT...100NE 80SE 80SW 100NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 27/0000Z 18.5N 144.0W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 28/0000Z 20.0N 148.5W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.4N 133.2W NEXT ADVISORY AT 23/0900Z $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS/FRANKLIN ** WTPZ31 KNHC 230251 *** TCPEP1 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM EMILIA ADVISORY NUMBER 7 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062006 800 PM PDT SAT JUL 22 2006 ...EMILIA MOVING NEARLY PARALLEL TO THE COAST OF MEXICO... A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE PACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO FROM MANZANILLO TO CABO CORRIENTES. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 800 PM PDT...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM EMILIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 105.3 WEST OR ABOUT 130 MILES...205 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF MANZANILLO MEXICO AND ABOUT 485 MILES...775 KM...SOUTHEAST OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO. EMILIA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/HR. A TURN TO THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS SHOULD REMAIN OFFSHORE. HOWEVER...ONLY A SLIGHT DEVIATION TO THE RIGHT OF THE FORECAST TRACK WOULD BRING TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS TO THE MEXICAN COAST AS EARLY AS SUNDAY MORNING. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES...55 KM FROM THE CENTER. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1002 MB...29.59 INCHES. STORM TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 3 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS NEAR 6 INCHES OVER MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN...ARE EXPECTED IN ASSOCIATION WITH EMILIA...GENERALLY BETWEEN PUNTA SAN TELMO AND CABO CORRIENTES. REPEATING THE 800 PM PDT POSITION...17.4 N...105.3 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB. AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 1100 PM PDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 200 AM PDT. $$ FORECASTER FRANKLIN ** WTPZ41 KNHC 230253 *** TCDEP1 TROPICAL STORM EMILIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 7 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062006 800 PM PDT SAT JUL 22 2006 IT IS IMPOSSIBLE TO CONFIDENTLY LOCATE THE CENTER OF EMILIA THIS EVENING...BUT I BELIEVE IT TO BE LOCATED VERY NEAR THE NORTHEAST EDGE OF THE DEEPEST CONVECTION...A POSITION ONLY SLIGHTLY TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK. TRMM AND SSMI PASSES WITHIN THE LAST COUPLE OF HOURS DO NOT SHOW AS MUCH STRUCTURE IN THE LOW CLOUD LINES AS THOSE FROM EARLIER IN THE DAY. GIVEN THE LACK OF CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION...IT DOES NOT APPEAR THAT EMILIA HAS STRENGTHENED ANY. DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGE FROM 35-45 KT...AND THE ADVISORY INTENSITY WILL REMAIN AT 40 KT. NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR STILL APPEARS TO BE HINDERING DEVELOPMENT...BUT ALL THE GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST THAT EMILIA WILL BE MOVING INTO A MORE FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO. IN FACT...THE UKMET FORECAST 200 MB WINDS...COUPLED WITH THE 30C WATERS...WOULD FAVOR SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING. THE GFDL...SHIPS...AND FSU SUPERENSEMBLE ARE ALL PROJECTING EMILIA TO REACH HURRICANE STRENGTH IN 36 HOURS...AND SO DOES THE OFFICIAL FORECAST. THE REGION OF FAVORABLE UPPER FLOW IS SMALL HOWEVER...SO IF EMILIA MOVES SIGNIFICANTLY SOUTH OF THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK ITS DEVELOPMENT COULD BE DELAYED. AFTER 48 HOURS...THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO BE MOVING OVER COOLER WATERS. THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED TO BE 330/10. EMILIA APPEARS TO BE MAKING THE FORECAST NORTHWESTWARD TURN...AND I DO NOT EXPECT IT TO GET A LOT CLOSER TO THE MEXICAN COAST THAN IT ALREADY IS. CONSEQUENTLY...A TROPICAL STORM WATCH...WHICH MEANS THAT STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE BUT NOT EXPECTED...STILL APPEARS TO BE THE APPROPRIATE STATEMENT AT THIS TIME. SHOULD EMILIA MOVE TO THE RIGHT OF THE FORECAST TRACK OR DEVELOP MORE RAPIDLY THAN EXPECTED...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS COULD REACH THE WATCH AREA AS EARLY AS TOMORROW MORNING. THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS MUCH THE SAME AS BEFORE...WITH THE GFS TAKING A VERY WEAK SYSTEM SHARPLY WESTWARD...AND THE UKMET TAKING EMILIA WITHIN STRIKING DISTANCE OF THE WATCH AREA AS WELL AS BAJA CALIFORNIA. THE GFDL HAS AN ODD TRACK...RESEMBLING THE GFS EARLY AND THE UKMET LATE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS VERY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY TRACK AND ON THE RIGHT-HAND SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 23/0300Z 17.4N 105.3W 40 KT 12HR VT 23/1200Z 18.5N 106.3W 45 KT 24HR VT 24/0000Z 19.7N 108.0W 55 KT 36HR VT 24/1200Z 20.5N 109.5W 65 KT 48HR VT 25/0000Z 21.2N 111.0W 75 KT 72HR VT 26/0000Z 23.0N 114.0W 65 KT 96HR VT 27/0000Z 24.5N 116.5W 45 KT 120HR VT 28/0000Z 26.0N 120.0W 25 KT...DISSIPATING $$ FORECASTER FRANKLIN ** WTPZ21 KNHC 230254 *** TCMEP1 TROPICAL STORM EMILIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062006 0300 UTC SUN JUL 23 2006 A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE PACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO FROM MANZANILLO TO CABO CORRIENTES. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.4N 105.3W AT 23/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 330 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT....... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.4N 105.3W AT 23/0300Z AT 23/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.0N 105.0W FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 18.5N 106.3W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 19.7N 108.0W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 20.5N 109.5W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 10NE 0SE 0SW 10NW. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 75NE 60SE 60SW 75NW. FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 21.2N 111.0W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 75SE 75SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 23.0N 114.0W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 75SE 75SW 90NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 27/0000Z 24.5N 116.5W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 28/0000Z 26.0N 120.0W...DISSIPATING MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.4N 105.3W NEXT ADVISORY AT 23/0900Z $$ FORECASTER FRANKLIN ** WTPQ20 BABJ 230300 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TY KAEMI 0605 (0605) INITIAL TIME 230300 UTC 00HR 18.8N 127.2E 960HPA 40M/S 30KTS 430KM 50KTS 120KM P12HR NW 15KM/H= ** WTJP31 RJTD 230300 *** WARNING 230300. WARNING VALID 240300. TYPHOON WARNING. TYPHOON 0605 KAEMI (0605) 955 HPA AT 18.8N 127.0E SEA EAST OF PHILIPPINES MOVING NORTHWEST 09 KNOTS. POSITION FAIR. MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 60 MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 240 MILES SOUTH SEMICIRCLE AND 150 MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION FOR 240300UTC AT 21.7N 124.6E WITH 80 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 950 HPA, MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 230300 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TY 0605 KAEMI (0605) ANALYSIS PSTN 230300UTC 18.8N 127.0E FAIR MOVE NW 09KT PRES 955HPA MXWD 080KT 50KT 60NM 30KT 240NM SOUTH 150NM NORTH FORECAST 24HF 240300UTC 21.7N 124.6E 80NM 70% MOVE NW 09KT PRES 950HPA MXWD 080KT 45HF 250000UTC 23.4N 122.3E 150NM 70% MOVE NW 08KT PRES 960HPA MXWD 075KT 69HF 260000UTC 24.4N 119.0E 220NM 70% MOVE W 07KT PRES 970HPA MXWD 065KT = ** WTPN31 PHNC 230400 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// REF/A/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN/PEARL HARBOR HI/230335JUL2006// AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. HURRICANE 05E (DANIEL) WARNING NR 025 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 230000Z --- NEAR 14.3N 132.6W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 285 DEGREES AT 11 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 010 NM POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 155 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 14.3N 132.6W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 231200Z --- 14.8N 134.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 240000Z --- 15.4N 136.4W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 120 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 241200Z --- 15.9N 138.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 07 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 250000Z --- 16.3N 139.3W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 260000Z --- 17.0N 141.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 08 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 270000Z --- 18.5N 144.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 11 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 280000Z --- 20.0N 148.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 060 KT --- REMARKS: 230400Z POSITION NEAR 14.5N 133.2W. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 230000Z IS 38 FEET. AT 230000Z, HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED 1269 NM W OF SOCORRO ISLAND. NEXT WARNINGS AT 231000Z, 231600Z, 232200Z AND 240400Z. REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 06E (EMILIA) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PHNC) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.// ** WTPN32 PHNC 230400 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// REF/A/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN/PEARL HARBOR HI/230335JUL2006// AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL STORM 06E (EMILIA) WARNING NR 007 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 230000Z --- NEAR 17.0N 105.0W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 330 DEGREES AT 10 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 17.0N 105.0W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 231200Z --- 18.5N 106.3W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 240000Z --- 19.7N 108.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 065 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 241200Z --- 20.5N 109.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 08 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 250000Z --- 21.2N 111.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 260000Z --- 23.0N 114.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 07 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 270000Z --- 24.5N 116.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 280000Z --- 26.0N 120.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: 230400Z POSITION NEAR 17.5N 105.4W. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 230000Z IS 12 FEET. AT 230000Z TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED 293 NM W OF ACAPULCO. NEXT WARNINGS AT 231000Z, 231600Z, 232200Z AND 240400Z. REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 05E (DANIEL) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PHNC) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.// ** WTNT80 EGRR 230532 *** MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 23.07.2006 TROPICAL STORM EMILIA ANALYSED POSITION : 17.4N 104.4W ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP062006 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 23.07.2006 16.7N 105.4W WEAK 12UTC 23.07.2006 18.6N 106.2W MODERATE INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY 00UTC 24.07.2006 19.3N 107.7W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 24.07.2006 20.3N 109.4W STRONG WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 25.07.2006 21.4N 111.0W MODERATE WEAKENING RAPIDLY 12UTC 25.07.2006 21.7N 112.3W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 26.07.2006 22.6N 113.5W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 26.07.2006 23.8N 114.6W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 27.07.2006 BELOW TROPICAL STROM STRENGTH HURRICANE DANIEL ANALYSED POSITION : 14.3N 132.4W ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP052006 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 23.07.2006 14.3N 132.4W STRONG 12UTC 23.07.2006 15.1N 134.8W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 24.07.2006 16.2N 137.1W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 24.07.2006 16.8N 139.3W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 25.07.2006 17.0N 141.5W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 25.07.2006 17.1N 143.7W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 26.07.2006 17.4N 145.3W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 26.07.2006 17.3N 147.5W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 27.07.2006 17.8N 149.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 27.07.2006 17.5N 152.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 28.07.2006 20.1N 155.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 28.07.2006 17.1N 157.7W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 29.07.2006 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH. THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 230532 ** WTPZ31 KNHC 230552 *** TCPEP1 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM EMILIA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 7A NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062006 1100 PM PDT SAT JUL 22 2006 ...EMILIA MOVING NORTHWESTWARD AND NEARLY PARALLEL TO THE COAST OF MEXICO... A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE PACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO FROM MANZANILLO TO CABO CORRIENTES. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 1100 PM PDT...0600Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM EMILIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 105.8 WEST OR ABOUT 135 MILES...215 KM...SOUTHWEST OF MANZANILLO MEXICO AND ABOUT 460 MILES...740 KM...SOUTHEAST OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO. EMILIA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/HR. THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS SHOULD REMAIN OFFSHORE. HOWEVER...ONLY A SLIGHT DEVIATION TO THE RIGHT OF THE FORECAST TRACK COULD BRING TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS TO THE MEXICAN COAST AS EARLY AS SUNDAY MORNING. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES...55 KM FROM THE CENTER. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1002 MB...29.59 INCHES. STORM TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 3 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS NEAR 6 INCHES OVER MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN...ARE EXPECTED IN ASSOCIATION WITH EMILIA...GENERALLY BETWEEN PUNTA SAN TELMO AND CABO CORRIENTES. REPEATING THE 1100 PM PDT POSITION...17.6 N...105.8 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 200 AM PDT. $$ FORECASTER PASCH