** WTJP21 RJTD 221800 *** WARNING 221800. WARNING VALID 231800. WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS. TYPHOON WARNING. TYPHOON 0605 KAEMI (0605) 955 HPA AT 18.0N 128.1E SEA EAST OF PHILIPPINES MOVING NORTHWEST 08 KNOTS. POSITION FAIR. MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 60 MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 200 MILES. FORECAST POSITION FOR 231800UTC AT 20.4N 125.8E WITH 80 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 950 HPA, MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. FORECAST POSITION FOR 241800UTC AT 23.1N 123.2E WITH 150 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 960 HPA, MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. FORECAST POSITION FOR 251800UTC AT 25.1N 119.7E WITH 220 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 975 HPA, MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 221800 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TY 0605 KAEMI (0605) ANALYSIS PSTN 221800UTC 18.0N 128.1E FAIR MOVE NW 08KT PRES 955HPA MXWD 075KT 50KT 60NM 30KT 200NM FORECAST 24HF 231800UTC 20.4N 125.8E 80NM 70% MOVE NW 08KT PRES 950HPA MXWD 080KT 48HF 241800UTC 23.1N 123.2E 150NM 70% MOVE NW 09KT PRES 960HPA MXWD 075KT 72HF 251800UTC 25.1N 119.7E 220NM 70% MOVE WNW 09KT PRES 975HPA MXWD 060KT = ** WTPQ20 BABJ 221800 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TY KAEMI 0605 (0605) INITIAL TIME 221800 UTC 00HR 17.9N 128.2E 960HPA 40M/S 30KTS 430KM 50KTS 120KM P12HR WNW 15KM/H P+24HR 20.0N 125.5E 950HPA 45M/S P+48HR 21.9N 123.3E 960HPA 40M/S P+72HR 23.9N 120.3E 980HPA 30M/S= ** WTKO20 RKSL 221800 *** KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 8 NAME TY 0605 KAEMI ANALYSIS POSITION 221800UTC 17.9N 128.1E MOVEMENT NW 8KT PRES/VMAX 955HPA 76KT FORECAST 24HR POSITION 231800UTC 20.6N 125.4E WITHIN 80NM PRES/VMAX 955HPA 76KT 48HR POSITION 241800UTC 23.1N 123.0E WITHIN 135NM PRES/VMAX 965HPA 68KT 72HR POSITION 251800UTC 25.1N 119.9E WITHIN 215NM PRES/VMAX 980HPA 56KT KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION. ** WTPZ25 KNHC 222032 *** TCMEP5 HURRICANE DANIEL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 24 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052006 2100 UTC SAT JUL 22 2006 HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.0N 131.9W AT 22/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 10 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 11 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 935 MB EYE DIAMETER 25 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 125 KT WITH GUSTS TO 155 KT. 64 KT....... 45NE 35SE 35SW 45NW. 50 KT....... 70NE 60SE 60SW 70NW. 34 KT.......110NE 90SE 90SW 110NW. 12 FT SEAS..400NE 350SE 250SW 350NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.0N 131.9W AT 22/2100Z AT 22/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.9N 131.4W FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 14.3N 133.5W MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT. 64 KT... 45NE 35SE 35SW 45NW. 50 KT... 70NE 60SE 60SW 70NW. 34 KT...110NE 90SE 90SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 14.8N 135.4W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. 64 KT... 45NE 35SE 35SW 45NW. 50 KT... 70NE 60SE 60SW 70NW. 34 KT...110NE 90SE 90SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 15.3N 137.4W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 64 KT... 45NE 35SE 35SW 45NW. 50 KT... 70NE 60SE 60SW 70NW. 34 KT...110NE 90SE 90SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 15.8N 139.0W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 50 KT... 70NE 60SE 60SW 70NW. 34 KT...110NE 90SE 90SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 16.8N 141.2W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 50SE 50SW 60NW. 34 KT...100NE 80SE 80SW 100NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 26/1800Z 18.0N 143.5W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 70 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 27/1800Z 19.5N 148.5W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.0N 131.9W NEXT ADVISORY AT 23/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BROWN/STEWART ** WTPZ45 KNHC 222033 *** TCDEP5 HURRICANE DANIEL DISCUSSION NUMBER 24 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052006 200 PM PDT SAT JUL 22 2006 CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS AND SUBJECTIVE DVORAK DATA T NUMBERS HAVE STARTED TO DECREASE. HOWEVER...DUE TO DVORAK INITIAL WEAKENING CONSTRAINTS CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM ALL THREE AGENCIES REMAIN 127 KT. THE ADVISORY INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 125 KT AND IT APPEARS THAT DANIEL HAS FINALLY STARTED ITS MUCH ANTICIPATED SLOW WEAKENING. A STRONG MID-TO-UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE SEEN IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY NEAR 28N139W IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE STEERING THE HURRICANE WEST TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THEREAFTER...THE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN ALLOWING THE HURRICANE TO DECELERATE. 18Z DYNAMICAL MODEL GUIDANCE HAS CONTINUE ITS WESTWARD SHIFT. ONCE AGAIN THE GFDL SHIFTED WESTWARD AND IS NOW VERY CLOSE TO THE GFS AND NOGAPS SOLUTIONS...AND INDEED...THE GUIDANCE IS NOW IN BETTER AGREEMENT OVERALL THAN EARLIER TODAY. THE OUTLIER IS THE UKMET... WHICH IS MUCH FARTHER SOUTH AND FASTER THAN THE REMAINDER OF THE GUIDANCE. THE UKMET CANNOT BE TOTALLY DISCOUNTED AS IT HAS BEEN PERFORMING WELL FOR THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST REMAINS CLOSE TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS AND THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY THROUGH 72 HOURS...BUT IS FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AT 96 AND 120 HOURS. DANIEL IS NOW EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER WARMER WATER FOR A BIT LONGER AND THE INTENSITY FORECAST ONLY INDICATES GRADUAL WEAKENING THROUGH 48 HOURS. BECAUSE OF THE WESTWARD SHIFT IN THE FORECAST TRACK LATER IN THE PERIOD...DANIEL WILL LIKELY REMAIN OVER 25C WATER FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST REMAINS ABOVE THE SHIPS GUIDANCE AND DOES NOT INDICATE AS MUCH WEAKENING AS THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AT 96 AND 120 HOURS. THE WIND RADII WERE ADJUSTED INWARD SLIGHTLY...BASED ON A 1445 UTC QUIKSCAT PASS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 22/2100Z 14.0N 131.9W 125 KT 12HR VT 23/0600Z 14.3N 133.5W 115 KT 24HR VT 23/1800Z 14.8N 135.4W 105 KT 36HR VT 24/0600Z 15.3N 137.4W 95 KT 48HR VT 24/1800Z 15.8N 139.0W 85 KT 72HR VT 25/1800Z 16.8N 141.2W 70 KT 96HR VT 26/1800Z 18.0N 143.5W 60 KT 120HR VT 27/1800Z 19.5N 148.5W 55 KT $$ FORECASTER BROWN/STEWART ** WTPZ31 KNHC 222036 *** TCPEP1 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM EMILIA ADVISORY NUMBER 6 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062006 200 PM PDT SAT JUL 22 2006 ...TROPICAL STORM WATCH ISSUED AS EMILIA MOVES CLOSER TO MEXICO... AT 2 PM PDT...2100 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE WEST-CENTRAL COAST OF MEXICO FROM MANZANILLO NORTHWARD TO CABO CORRIENTES. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 24-36 HOURS. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 200 PM PDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM EMILIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 104.6 WEST OR ABOUT 175 MILES...280 KM...SOUTH OF MANZANILLO MEXICO AND ABOUT 560 MILES... 900 KM...SOUTHEAST OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO. EMILIA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 13 MPH...20 KM/HR. A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN LATER TONIGHT OR MONDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF EMILIA IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN WELL OFFSHORE THE COAST OF MEXICO. HOWEVER... JUST A SLIGHT DEVIATION TO THE RIGHT OF THE FORECAST TRACK COULD BRING THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS...CLOSE TO THE MEXICAN COAST. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING COULD BE REQUIRED LATER TONIGHT IF THE EXPECTED TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST DOES NOT OCCUR AS QUICKLY AS FORECAST. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES...55 KM FROM THE CENTER. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1002 MB...29.59 INCHES. EMILIA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 3 INCHES OVER THE WEST-CENTRAL COAST OF MEXICO FROM PUNTA SAN TELMO NORTHWARD TO CABO CORRIENTES...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS NEAR 6 INCHES POSSIBLE OVER MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. REPEATING THE 200 PM PDT POSITION...16.5 N...104.6 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTH NEAR 13 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB. AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 500 PM PDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 800 PM PDT. $$ FORECASTER STEWART ** WTPZ21 KNHC 222037 *** TCMEP1 TROPICAL STORM EMILIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062006 2100 UTC SAT JUL 22 2006 AT 2 PM PDT...2100 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE WEST-CENTRAL COAST OF MEXICO FROM MANZANILLO NORTHWARD TO CABO CORRIENTES.A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.5N 104.6W AT 22/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 350 DEGREES AT 11 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT....... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.5N 104.6W AT 22/2100Z AT 22/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.0N 104.5W FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 17.8N 105.4W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 19.2N 106.8W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 55NE 55SE 55SW 55NW. FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 20.3N 108.7W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 10NE 0SE 0SW 10NW. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 60SE 60SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 20.9N 110.2W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 85NE 75SE 75SW 85NW. FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 22.3N 112.6W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 85NE 75SE 75SW 85NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 26/1800Z 24.5N 115.5W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 27/1800Z 26.5N 119.0W...DISSIPATING MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.5N 104.6W NEXT ADVISORY AT 23/0300Z $$ FORECASTER STEWART ** WTPZ41 KNHC 222039 *** TCDEP1 TROPICAL STORM EMILIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 6 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062006 200 PM PDT SAT JUL 22 2006 EMILIA HAS CONTINUED TO MOVE QUICKLY IN A GENERAL NORTHWARD DIRECTION... ALL THE WHILE BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED. BANDING FEATURES HAVE IMPROVED IN ALL QUADRANTS AND DEEP CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED NEAR THE CENTER. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 40 KT USING A BLEND OF SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 35 TO 45 KT FROM THE TAFB...SAB...AND AFWA. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 350/11. THE PREVIOUSLY EXPOSED TIGHT LOW-LEVEL CENTER HAS BECOME OBSCURED NOW WITH CONVECTION AND CONVECTIVE CLOUD DEBRIS FROM THE NORTHEAST...WHICH HAS MADE PLACEMENT OF THE CENTER LOCATION A LITTLE DIFFICULT. HOWEVER...ALL OF THE AVAILABLE MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT EMILIA SHOULD BEGIN TO BE INFLUENCED BY THE STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ORIENTED EAST-WEST ACROSS CENTRAL MEXICO AND TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR NORTHWEST. UNFORTUNATELY...ALL OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A PREMATURE SHARP TURN TOWARD THE WEST OR WEST-NORTHWEST FROM ITS CURRENT POSITION...WHICH IS LIKELY NOT GOING TO HAPPEN. THE ONLY MODELS THAT DO NOT INDICATE THAT SHARP OF AN INITIAL TURN ARE THE INTERPOLATED UKMET...STATISTICAL-DYNAMICAL MODEL P91E...AND CLIPER. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS WELL TO THE RIGHT OF THE GUNS... GUNA...AND CONU CONSENSUS MODELS...AND IS CLOSE TO THE INTERPOLATED UKMET MODEL. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT P91E AND CLIPER ARE TO THE RIGHT OF THE OFFICIAL TRACK AND BRING EMILIA VERY CLOSE TO THE MEXICAN COAST IN ABOUT 24 HOURS. EMILIA IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO LOW VERTICAL SHEAR CONDITIONS IN 12-18 HOURS. THIS FAVORABLE WIND REGIME COUPLED WITH WARM SSTS EXCEEDING 28C SHOULD ALLOW FOR AT LEAST AN AVERAGE RATE OF INTENSIFICATION. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THE SHIPS AND GFDL MODELS...WHICH ARE NOW MUCH CLOSER IN INTENSITY. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE TIGHT LOW-LEVEL INNER CORE WIND FIELD PREVIOUSLY NOTED IN VISIBLE IMAGERY...EMILIA COULD EXPERIENCE A PERIOD OF RAPID INTENSIFICATION AND BE A HURRICANE IN 24-30 HOURS AS IT PASSES CLOSE TO THE MEXICAN COAST DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY IN BOTH THE TRACK AND THE INTENSITY FORECASTS ... A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE WEST-CENTRAL COAST OF MEXICO. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 22/2100Z 16.5N 104.6W 40 KT 12HR VT 23/0600Z 17.8N 105.4W 45 KT 24HR VT 23/1800Z 19.2N 106.8W 55 KT 36HR VT 24/0600Z 20.3N 108.7W 65 KT 48HR VT 24/1800Z 20.9N 110.2W 75 KT 72HR VT 25/1800Z 22.3N 112.6W 70 KT 96HR VT 26/1800Z 24.5N 115.5W 50 KT 120HR VT 27/1800Z 26.5N 119.0W 30 KT...DISSIPATING $$ FORECASTER STEWART ** WTPN31 PGTW 222100 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TYPHOON 06W (KAEMI) WARNING NR 020 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 221800Z --- NEAR 17.9N 128.1E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 320 DEGREES AT 09 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 17.9N 128.1E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 230600Z --- 19.2N 126.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 231800Z --- 20.4N 125.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 240600Z --- 21.7N 124.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 09 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 241800Z --- 22.9N 122.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 251800Z --- 24.7N 120.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 09 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 261800Z --- 27.6N 117.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 11 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 271800Z --- 31.4N 115.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 015 KT, GUSTS 025 KT DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 222100Z POSITION NEAR 18.2N 127.8E. TYPHOON (TY) 06W (KAEMI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 525 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF KAOHSIUNG, TAIWAN, HAS TRACKED NORTH- WESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 221800Z IS 28 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 230300Z, 230900Z, 231500Z AND 232100Z.// ** WTPH20 RPMM 221800 *** T T T TYPHOON WARNING 08 AT 1800 22 JULY TYPHOON (KAEMI)(0605)WAS LOCATED BY SATELLITE AND SURFACE DATA AT ONE EIGHT POINT ZERO NORTH ONE TWO EIGHT POINT TWO EAST MOVING NORTHWEST AT ZERO FOUR METERS PER SECOND ROUGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS WITHIN THREE FIVE ZERO KILOMETERS SOUTH SEMI-CIRCLE TWO FIVE ZERO KILOMETERS ELSEWHERE ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE NINE SIX SEVEN HECTOPASCALS MAXIMUM WINDS THREE NINE METERS PER SECOND NEAR CENTER TWO FIVE METERS PER SECOND WITHIN ONE FIVE ZERO KILOMETERS SOUTH SEMI-CIRCLE TWO FIVE ZERO KILOMETERS ELSEWHERE FORECAST POSITIONS AT 231800 TWO ZERO POINT ZERO NORTH ONE TWO FIVE POINT FOUR EAST AT 241800 TWO ONE POINT NINE NORTH ONE TWO TWO POINT FIVE EAST AT 251800 TWO FOUR POINT FOUR NORTH ONE TWO ZERO POINT TWO EAST ALL SHIPS WITHIN TYPHOON AREA ARE REQUESTED TO SEND THREE HOURLY WEATHER REPORTS TO WEATHER MANILA PD WEATHER MANILA= ** WTJP31 RJTD 222100 *** WARNING 222100. WARNING VALID 232100. TYPHOON WARNING. TYPHOON 0605 KAEMI (0605) 955 HPA AT 18.4N 127.8E SEA EAST OF PHILIPPINES MOVING NORTHNORTHWEST 10 KNOTS. POSITION FAIR. MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 60 MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 200 MILES. FORECAST POSITION FOR 232100UTC AT 20.9N 125.4E WITH 80 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 950 HPA, MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 222100 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TY 0605 KAEMI (0605) ANALYSIS PSTN 222100UTC 18.4N 127.8E FAIR MOVE NNW 10KT PRES 955HPA MXWD 075KT 50KT 60NM 30KT 200NM FORECAST 24HF 232100UTC 20.9N 125.4E 80NM 70% MOVE NW 08KT PRES 950HPA MXWD 080KT 45HF 241800UTC 23.1N 123.2E 150NM 70% MOVE NW 09KT PRES 960HPA MXWD 075KT 69HF 251800UTC 25.1N 119.7E 220NM 70% MOVE WNW 09KT PRES 975HPA MXWD 060KT = ** WTPQ20 BABJ 222100 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TY KAEMI 0605 (0605) INITIAL TIME 222100 UTC 00HR 18.1N 128.0E 960HPA 40M/S 30KTS 430KM 50KTS 120KM P12HR NW 15KM/H P+24HR 20.5N 125.1E 960HPA 40M/S P+48HR 22.8N 122.3E 965HPA 38M/S P+72HR 24.7N 119.7E 985HPA 25M/S= ** WTPN31 PHNC 222200 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// REF/A/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN/PEARL HARBOR HI/222135JUL2006// AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. HURRICANE 05E (DANIEL) WARNING NR 024 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 221800Z --- NEAR 13.9N 131.4W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 275 DEGREES AT 11 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 010 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 155 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 13.9N 131.4W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 230600Z --- 14.3N 133.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 231800Z --- 14.8N 135.4W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 240600Z --- 15.3N 137.4W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 08 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 241800Z --- 15.8N 139.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 251800Z --- 16.8N 141.2W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 06 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 261800Z --- 18.0N 143.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 070 KT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 12 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 271800Z --- 19.5N 148.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 060 KT --- REMARKS: 222200Z POSITION NEAR 14.0N 132.1W. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 221800Z IS 40 FEET. AT 221800Z HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED 1591 NM ESE OF BARBERS_POINT. NEXT WARNINGS AT 230400Z, 231000Z, 231600Z AND 232200Z. REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 06E (EMILIA) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PHNC) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.// ** WTPN32 PHNC 222200 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// REF/A/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN/PEARL HARBOR HI/222130JUL2006// AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL STORM 06E (EMILIA) WARNING NR 006 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 221800Z --- NEAR 16.0N 104.5W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 350 DEGREES AT 11 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 16.0N 104.5W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 230600Z --- 17.8N 105.4W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 231800Z --- 19.2N 106.8W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 065 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 240600Z --- 20.3N 108.7W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 08 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 241800Z --- 20.9N 110.2W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 251800Z --- 22.3N 112.6W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 09 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 261800Z --- 24.5N 115.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 060 KT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 271800Z --- 26.5N 119.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: 222200Z POSITION NEAR 16.6N 104.8W. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 221800Z IS 14 FEET. AT 221800Z, TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED 269 NM W OF ACAPULCO. NEXT WARNINGS AT 230400Z, 231000Z, 231600Z AND 232200Z. REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 06E (EMILIA) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PHNC) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.// ** WTPN32 PHNC 222200 COR *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// REF/A/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN/PEARL HARBOR HI/222130JUL2006// AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL STORM 06E (EMILIA) WARNING NR 006A CORRECTED 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 221800Z --- NEAR 16.0N 104.5W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 350 DEGREES AT 11 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 16.0N 104.5W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 230600Z --- 17.8N 105.4W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 231800Z --- 19.2N 106.8W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 065 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 240600Z --- 20.3N 108.7W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 08 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 241800Z --- 20.9N 110.2W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 251800Z --- 22.3N 112.6W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 09 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 261800Z --- 24.5N 115.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 060 KT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 271800Z --- 26.5N 119.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: 222200Z POSITION NEAR 16.6N 104.8W. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 221800Z IS 14 FEET. AT 221800Z, TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED 269 NM W OF ACAPULCO. NEXT WARNINGS AT 230400Z, 231000Z, 231600Z AND 232200Z. REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 05E (DANIEL) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PHNC) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES. JUSTIFICATION FOR CORRECTION: CORRECTED REFERENCE TO 05E IN REMARKS.// ** WTPZ31 KNHC 222343 *** TCPEP1 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM EMILIA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 6A NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062006 500 PM PDT SAT JUL 22 2006 ...EMILIA EDGES TOWARD THE COAST OF MEXICO... A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE PACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO FROM MANZANILLO TO CABO CORRIENTES. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 24-36 HOURS. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 500 PM PDT...0000Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM EMILIA WAS ESTIMATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 104.8 WEST OR ABOUT 155 MILES...245 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF MANZANILLO MEXICO. EMILIA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/HR. A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS SHOULD REMAIN OFFSHORE. HOWEVER...ONLY A SLIGHT DEVIATION TO THE RIGHT OF THE FORECAST TRACK WOULD BRING TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS TO THE MEXICAN COAST AS EARLY AS SUNDAY MORNING. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME INCREASE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES...55 KM FROM THE CENTER. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1002 MB...29.59 INCHES. STORM TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 3 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS NEAR 6 INCHES OVER MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN...ARE EXPECTED IN ASSOCIATION WITH EMILIA...GENERALLY BETWEEN PUNTA SAN TELMO AND CABO CORRIENTES. REPEATING THE 500 PM PDT POSITION...16.9 N...104.8 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 800 PM PDT. $$ FORECASTER FRANKLIN