** WTSR20 WSSS 220600 *** NO STORM WARNING= ** WTPQ20 BABJ 221200 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TY KAEMI 0605 (0605) INITIAL TIME 221200 UTC 00HR 17.1N 128.7E 960HPA 40M/S 30KTS 430KM 50KTS 120KM P12HR WNW 15KM/H P+24HR 19.6N 125.3E 950HPA 45M/S P+48HR 22.2N 122.8E 950HPA 45M/S P+72HR 24.2N 120.3E 960HPA 40M/S= ** WTJP21 RJTD 221200 *** WARNING 221200. WARNING VALID 231200. WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS. TYPHOON WARNING. TYPHOON 0605 KAEMI (0605) 955 HPA AT 17.1N 128.8E SEA EAST OF PHILIPPINES MOVING WESTNORTHWEST SLOWLY. POSITION FAIR. MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 60 MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 200 MILES. FORECAST POSITION FOR 231200UTC AT 19.6N 125.8E WITH 80 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 950 HPA, MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. FORECAST POSITION FOR 241200UTC AT 22.9N 123.3E WITH 150 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 960 HPA, MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. FORECAST POSITION FOR 251200UTC AT 24.7N 120.5E WITH 220 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 975 HPA, MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 221200 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TY 0605 KAEMI (0605) ANALYSIS PSTN 221200UTC 17.1N 128.8E FAIR MOVE WNW SLOWLY PRES 955HPA MXWD 075KT 50KT 60NM 30KT 200NM FORECAST 24HF 231200UTC 19.6N 125.8E 80NM 70% MOVE NW 09KT PRES 950HPA MXWD 080KT 48HF 241200UTC 22.9N 123.3E 150NM 70% MOVE NW 10KT PRES 960HPA MXWD 075KT 72HF 251200UTC 24.7N 120.5E 220NM 70% MOVE WNW 07KT PRES 975HPA MXWD 060KT = ** WTPZ41 KNHC 221414 *** TCDEP1 TROPICAL STORM EMILIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 5 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062006 800 AM PDT SAT JUL 22 2006 DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS...CONVENTIONAL AND MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE EMILIA HAS EXPERIENCED SOME MODERATE NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR WHICH HAD DISPLACED THE DEEPEST CONVECTION TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER. HOWEVER...CONVECTION IN THE SOUTHWESTERN QUADRANT HAS MADE A COMEBACK DURING THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS...AND SEVERAL NARROW CONVECTIVE BANDS HAVE ALSO DEVELOPED IN THE NORTHEASTERN SEMICIRCLE. GIVEN THE RECENT AND EXPECTED CONVECTIVE REDEVELOPMENT TREND...THE INTENSITY IS BEING HELD AT 35 KT ASSUMING THAT TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXIST IN THE SOUTHWESTERN QUADRANT. USING A 12-HOUR TREND...THE INITIAL MOTION IS 335/12. THE ACTUAL PAST 6-HOUR MOTION HAS BEEN CLOSER TO 15 KT DUE TO EMILIA HAVING LOST SOME VERTICAL EXTENT WHEN THE CONVECTION BRIEFLY WEAKENED. HOWEVER...THE VERTICAL SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE TO LESS THAN 5 KT BY 24 HOURS...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW MORE CENTRAL CONVECTION AND A DEEPER VORTEX TO REDEVELOP. THIS SHOULD CAUSE EMILIA TO BE STEERED MORE WESTWARD BY THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE LOCATED OVER MEXICO. THE BIG CONCERN IS EXACTLY WHEN EMILIA WILL BECOME A MORE VERTICALLY DEEP CYCLONE. IF CENTRAL DEEP CONVECTION DOES NOT REDEVELOP WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS...THEN A MORE SHALLOW STORM COULD SLIDE TO THE EAST OF THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK AND MOVE CLOSER TO THE WEST-CENTRAL MEXICAN COAST... POSSIBLY BRINGING TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS VERY CLOSE TO THAT AREA. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS WELL TO THE RIGHT OR EAST OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...AND IS ALONG THE RIGHT SIDE OF THE NHC MODEL GUIDANCE ENVELOPE. THE LOW SHEAR ENVIRONMENT THAT EMILIA IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO AFTER 24 HOURS WOULD NORMALLY FAVOR SIGNIFICANT INTENSIFICATION. HOWEVER ...LIGHT-MODERATE EAST TO SOUTHEASTERLY 300 MB WINDS ARE FORECAST TO UNDERCUT THE OTHERWISE FAVORABLE 200 MB OUTFLOW PATTERN...SO ONLY MODEST STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST...WHICH IS A BLEND OF THE LOWER GFDL FORECAST AND THE HIGHER SHIPS INTENSITY MODEL FORECAST. HOWEVER...IF THE 300 MB WIND FLOW REMAINS WEAKER THAN EXPECTED... THEN EMILIA COULD BECOME A HURRICANE IN 48 HOURS. THE SIZE OF THE WIND RADII WERE TRIMMED BACK SOMEWHAT SINCE EMILIA HAS NOT YET INTENSIFIED AND BECOME AS ORGANIZED AS PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 22/1500Z 15.3N 104.6W 35 KT 12HR VT 23/0000Z 16.4N 105.5W 40 KT 24HR VT 23/1200Z 17.5N 107.0W 45 KT 36HR VT 24/0000Z 18.3N 108.2W 50 KT 48HR VT 24/1200Z 18.9N 109.4W 60 KT 72HR VT 25/1200Z 20.4N 111.4W 60 KT 96HR VT 26/1200Z 22.3N 113.8W 50 KT 120HR VT 27/1200Z 24.5N 116.0W 40 KT $$ FORECASTER STEWART ** WTPZ21 KNHC 221415 *** TCMEP1 TROPICAL STORM EMILIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062006 1500 UTC SAT JUL 22 2006 INTERESTS ALONG THE WEST-CENTRAL COAST OF MEXICO FROM MANZANILLO NORTHWARD TO CABO CORRIENTES SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF EMILIA. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.3N 104.6W AT 22/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 335 DEGREES AT 12 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 0NE 0SE 30SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.3N 104.6W AT 22/1500Z AT 22/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.9N 104.3W FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 16.4N 105.5W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 17.5N 107.0W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 18.3N 108.2W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 18.9N 109.4W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 75NE 65SE 65SW 75NW. FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 20.4N 111.4W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 85NE 75SE 75SW 85NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 26/1200Z 22.3N 113.8W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 27/1200Z 24.5N 116.0W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.3N 104.6W NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/2100Z $$ FORECASTER STEWART ** WTPZ25 KNHC 221436 *** TCMEP5 HURRICANE DANIEL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 23 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052006 1500 UTC SAT JUL 22 2006 HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.9N 130.8W AT 22/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 10 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 282 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 933 MB EYE DIAMETER 25 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 130 KT WITH GUSTS TO 160 KT. 64 KT....... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW. 50 KT....... 80NE 70SE 70SW 80NW. 34 KT.......120NE 100SE 100SW 120NW. 12 FT SEAS..400NE 350SE 250SW 350NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.9N 130.8W AT 22/1500Z AT 22/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.8N 130.3W FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 14.2N 132.5W MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT. 64 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW. 50 KT... 80NE 70SE 70SW 80NW. 34 KT...120NE 100SE 100SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 14.6N 134.5W MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. 64 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW. 50 KT... 80NE 70SE 70SW 80NW. 34 KT...120NE 100SE 100SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 15.1N 136.4W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 64 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW. 50 KT... 80NE 70SE 70SW 80NW. 34 KT...120NE 100SE 100SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 15.6N 138.0W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 50 KT... 75NE 55SE 55SW 75NW. 34 KT...110NE 90SE 90SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 16.5N 140.2W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 50 KT... 75NE 55SE 55SW 75NW. 34 KT...110NE 90SE 90SW 110NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 26/1200Z 17.5N 142.5W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 27/1200Z 19.0N 145.5W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.9N 130.8W NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BROWN/STEWART ** WTPZ45 KNHC 221436 *** TCDEP5 HURRICANE DANIEL DISCUSSION NUMBER 23 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052006 800 AM PDT SAT JUL 22 2006 DANIEL REMAINS AN IMPRESSIVE HURRICANE. CURRENT DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM ALL THREE AGENCIES REMAIN 127 KT. THE CURRENT SUBJECTIVE ADT INTENSITY ESTIMATE FROM CIMSS IS 132 KT. THEREFORE ...THE INITIAL INTENSITY FOR THIS ADVISORY WILL REMAIN 130 KT. DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF A STRONG MID-TO-UPPER LEVEL RIDGE NORTH OF THE HURRICANE...DANIEL CONTINUES TO MOVE WESTWARD AT 280/11. THE 12Z MODEL GUIDANCE HAS MADE A SIGNIFICANT SHIFT WESTWARD AND FASTER. THE GFDL MODEL WHICH HAS BEEN STRUGGLING WITH THE MORE WESTWARD MOTION...CONTINUES TO BE THE MODEL THAT TURNS THE HURRICANE NORTHWESTWARD SOONER AS A TROUGH DIGS TO THE NORTHWEST OF DANIEL. HOWEVER...IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE GFDL 120-HOUR FORECAST POSITION DID SHIFT WESTWARD ABOUT 300 N MI FROM THE EARLIER GUIDANCE. THE GFS... NOGAPS... AND UKMET SLOW THE FORWARD SPEED TO ABOUT 6 KT AS DANIEL MOVES INTO A DEVELOPING WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE...BUT STILL KEEPS THE HURRICANE ON A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS THIS SCENARIO AND IS FASTER AND SHIFTED SIGNIFICANTLY LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK...MAINLY AFTER 48 HOURS. IF THIS TREND CONTINUES... ADDITIONAL WESTWARD ADJUSTMENTS MAY BE REQUIRED. SINCE THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK... DANIEL IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER WARMER WATER. AS SUCH...THE WEAKENING TREND IS FORECAST TO BE SLOWER THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS MUCH HIGHER THAN THE SHIPS MODEL FORECAST...WHICH USES THE PREVIOUS INTERPOLATED OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK THAT WAS OVER COOLER WATER. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 22/1500Z 13.9N 130.8W 130 KT 12HR VT 23/0000Z 14.2N 132.5W 120 KT 24HR VT 23/1200Z 14.6N 134.5W 110 KT 36HR VT 24/0000Z 15.1N 136.4W 100 KT 48HR VT 24/1200Z 15.6N 138.0W 90 KT 72HR VT 25/1200Z 16.5N 140.2W 75 KT 96HR VT 26/1200Z 17.5N 142.5W 60 KT 120HR VT 27/1200Z 19.0N 145.5W 50 KT $$ FORECASTER BROWN/STEWART ** WTPN31 PGTW 221500 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TYPHOON 06W (KAEMI) WARNING NR 019 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 221200Z --- NEAR 17.1N 128.8E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 305 DEGREES AT 03 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 17.1N 128.8E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 230000Z --- 18.0N 127.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 231200Z --- 19.2N 126.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 240000Z --- 20.6N 124.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 10 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 241200Z --- 21.9N 123.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 251200Z --- 23.6N 120.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 09 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 261200Z --- 26.1N 118.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 13 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 271200Z --- 30.8N 115.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 015 KT, GUSTS 025 KT DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 221500Z POSITION NEAR 17.3N 128.5E. TYPHOON (TY) 06W (KAEMI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 858 NM SOUTHEAST OF KAOHSIUNG, TAIWAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 03 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 221200Z IS 30 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 222100Z, 230300Z, 230900Z AND 231500Z.// ** WTPH20 RPMM 221200 *** T T T TYPHOON WARNING 07 AT 1200 22 JULY TYPHOON (KAEMI)(0605) WAS LOCATED BY SATELLITE AND SURFACE DATA AT ONESEVEN POINT ONE NORTH ONE TWO EIGHT POINT EIGHT EAST MOVING WEST NORTHEST AT ZERO FOUR METERS PER SECOND ROUGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS WITHIN THREE FIVE ZERO KILOMETERS SOUTH SEMI-CIRCLE TWO FIVE ZERO KILOMETERS ELSEWHERE ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE NINE SIX SEVEN HECTOPASCALS MAXIMUM THREE NINE METERS PER SECOND NEAR CENTER TWO FIVE METERS PER SECOND WITHIN ONE FIVE ZERO KILOMETERS RADIUS ONE THREE METERS PER SECOND WITHIN THREE FIVE ZERO KILOMETERS SOUTH SEMI-CIRCLE TWO FIVE ZERO KILOMETERS ELSEWHERE FORECAST POSITIONS AT 231200 ONE EIGHT POINT SEVEN NORTH ONE TWO FIVE POINT SIX EAST AT 241200 TWO ZERO POINT THREE NORTH ONE TWO TWO POINT FIVE EAST AT 251200 TWO TWO POINT SIX NORTH ONE TWO ZERO POINT ZERO EAST ALL SHIPS WITHIN TYPHOON AREA ARE REQUESTED TO SEND THREE HOURLY WEATHER REPORTS TO WEATHER MANILA PD WEATHER MANILA= ** WTJP31 RJTD 221500 *** WARNING 221500. WARNING VALID 231500. TYPHOON WARNING. TYPHOON 0605 KAEMI (0605) 955 HPA AT 17.4N 128.5E SEA EAST OF PHILIPPINES MOVING NORTHWEST 06 KNOTS. POSITION FAIR. MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 60 MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 200 MILES. FORECAST POSITION FOR 231500UTC AT 19.8N 125.8E WITH 80 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 950 HPA, MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 221500 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TY 0605 KAEMI (0605) ANALYSIS PSTN 221500UTC 17.4N 128.5E FAIR MOVE NW 06KT PRES 955HPA MXWD 075KT 50KT 60NM 30KT 200NM FORECAST 24HF 231500UTC 19.8N 125.8E 80NM 70% MOVE NW 08KT PRES 950HPA MXWD 080KT 45HF 241200UTC 22.9N 123.3E 150NM 70% MOVE NW 10KT PRES 960HPA MXWD 075KT 69HF 251200UTC 24.7N 120.5E 220NM 70% MOVE WNW 07KT PRES 975HPA MXWD 060KT = ** WTPN32 PHNC 221600 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// REF/A/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN/PEARL HARBOR HI/221530JUL2006// AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL STORM 06E (EMILIA) WARNING NR 005 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 221200Z --- NEAR 14.9N 104.3W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 335 DEGREES AT 12 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 14.9N 104.3W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 230000Z --- 16.4N 105.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 231200Z --- 17.5N 107.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 240000Z --- 18.3N 108.2W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 060 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 06 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 241200Z --- 18.9N 109.4W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 251200Z --- 20.4N 111.4W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 07 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 261200Z --- 22.3N 113.8W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 060 KT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 271200Z --- 24.5N 116.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT --- REMARKS: 221600Z POSITION NEAR 15.4N 104.7W. AT 221200Z TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED 278 NM WSW OF ACAPULCO. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 221200Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 222200Z, 230400Z, 231000Z AND 231600Z. REFER TO HURRICANE 05E (DANIEL) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PHNC) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.// ** WTPN31 PHNC 221600 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// REF/A/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN/PEARL HARBOR HI/221535JUL2006// AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. HURRICANE 05E (DANIEL) WARNING NR 023 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 221200Z --- NEAR 13.8N 130.3W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 282 DEGREES AT 10 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 010 NM POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 13.8N 130.3W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 230000Z --- 14.2N 132.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 231200Z --- 14.6N 134.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 240000Z --- 15.1N 136.4W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 120 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 08 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 241200Z --- 15.6N 138.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 251200Z --- 16.5N 140.2W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 06 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 261200Z --- 17.5N 142.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 271200Z --- 19.0N 145.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 060 KT --- REMARKS: 221600Z POSITION NEAR 13.9N 131.0W. AT 221200Z HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED 1469 NM WSW OF MAZATLAN. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 221200Z IS 41 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 222200Z, 230400Z, 231000Z AND 231600Z. REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 06E (EMILIA) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PHNC) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.// ** WTNT80 EGRR 221707 *** MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 22.07.2006 TROPICAL STORM EMILIA ANALYSED POSITION : 13.0N 104.4W ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP062006 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 22.07.2006 13.0N 104.4W WEAK 00UTC 23.07.2006 14.5N 104.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 23.07.2006 17.0N 107.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 24.07.2006 18.3N 108.9W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 24.07.2006 19.2N 110.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 25.07.2006 20.5N 111.8W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 25.07.2006 22.3N 115.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 26.07.2006 22.4N 116.8W WEAK WEAKENING RAPIDLY 12UTC 26.07.2006 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH HURRICANE DANIEL ANALYSED POSITION : 13.9N 130.3W ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP052006 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 22.07.2006 13.9N 130.3W STRONG 00UTC 23.07.2006 14.4N 132.5W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 23.07.2006 15.2N 134.6W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 24.07.2006 16.3N 136.9W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 24.07.2006 16.6N 139.2W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 25.07.2006 16.6N 141.4W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 25.07.2006 16.7N 143.3W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 26.07.2006 16.7N 145.2W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 26.07.2006 16.6N 147.0W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 27.07.2006 17.0N 148.8W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 27.07.2006 17.1N 151.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 28.07.2006 17.8N 153.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 28.07.2006 18.5N 155.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 221707