** WTIN20 DEMS 220630 *** TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK ------------------------ DEMS -RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONES NEW DELHI 22-07-2006(.) TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NORTH INDIAN OCEAN (THE BAY OF BENGAL AND THE ARABIAN SEA ) VALID FOR NEXT 24 HOURS ISSUED AT 0600 UTC (.) CONVECTIVE CLOUDS ARE SEEN OVER EAST ARABIAN SEA AND PARTS OF WEST CENTRAL BAY OF BENGAL RIDGE LINE AT 200 HPA RUNS ALONG 32 DEG. NORTH OVER INDIAN REGION (.) MSG OVER ?????????? ** WTJP21 RJTD 220600 *** WARNING 220600. WARNING VALID 230600. WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS. TYPHOON WARNING. TYPHOON 0605 KAEMI (0605) 955 HPA AT 16.9N 129.1E SEA EAST OF PHILIPPINES MOVING WESTNORTHWEST 06 KNOTS. POSITION FAIR. MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 60 MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 200 MILES. FORECAST POSITION FOR 230600UTC AT 19.8N 125.9E WITH 80 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 950 HPA, MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. FORECAST POSITION FOR 240600UTC AT 23.2N 123.5E WITH 150 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 960 HPA, MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. FORECAST POSITION FOR 250600UTC AT 25.0N 120.7E WITH 220 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 975 HPA, MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 220600 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TY 0605 KAEMI (0605) ANALYSIS PSTN 220600UTC 16.9N 129.1E FAIR MOVE WNW 06KT PRES 955HPA MXWD 075KT 50KT 60NM 30KT 200NM FORECAST 24HF 230600UTC 19.8N 125.9E 80NM 70% MOVE NW 10KT PRES 950HPA MXWD 080KT 48HF 240600UTC 23.2N 123.5E 150NM 70% MOVE NW 10KT PRES 960HPA MXWD 075KT 72HF 250600UTC 25.0N 120.7E 220NM 70% MOVE WNW 07KT PRES 975HPA MXWD 060KT = ** WTPQ20 BABJ 220600 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TY KAEMI 0605 (0605) INITIAL TIME 220600 UTC 00HR 17.0N 129.1E 960HPA 40M/S 30KTS 430KM 50KTS 120KM P12HR WNW 15KM/H P+24HR 19.1N 125.7E 950HPA 45M/S P+48HR 21.7N 123.3E 950HPA 45M/S P+72HR 24.0N 121.6E 960HPA 40M/S= ** WTKO20 RKSL 220600 *** KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 7 NAME TY 0605 KAEMI ANALYSIS POSITION 220600UTC 16.9N 129.1E MOVEMENT WNW 6KT PRES/VMAX 960HPA 76KT FORECAST 24HR POSITION 230600UTC 19.5N 126.0E WITHIN 80NM PRES/VMAX 950HPA 80KT 48HR POSITION 240600UTC 22.8N 123.6E WITHIN 135NM PRES/VMAX 960HPA 72KT 72HR POSITION 250600UTC 24.8N 121.1E WITHIN 215NM PRES/VMAX 970HPA 62KT KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION. ** WTPQ30 RJTD 220600 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING REASONING NO. 9 FOR TY 0605 KAEMI (0605) 1.GENERAL COMMENTS REASONING OF PROGNOSIS THIS TIME IS SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS ONE. POSITION FORECAST IS MAINLY BASED ON NWP AND PERSISTENCY. 2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION NOTHING PARTICULAR TO EXPLAIN. 3.MOTION FORECAST POSITION ACCURACY AT 220600 UTC IS FAIR. TY WILL MOVE AT THE SAME SPEED FOR THE NEXT 72 HOURS THEN ACCELERATE. TY WILL MOVE WEST-NORTHWEST FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS THEN MOVE GRADUALLY TO NORTHWEST. 4.INTENSITY FORECAST TY WILL KEEP PRESENT INTENSITY FOR NEXT 24 HOURS. FI-NUMBER WILL BE 5.5 AFTER 24 HOURS.= ** WTPZ41 KNHC 220832 *** TCDEP1 TROPICAL STORM EMILIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 4 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062006 200 AM PDT SAT JUL 22 2006 INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT A LARGE BURST OF CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED NEAR OR JUST WEST OF THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER...WITH CLOUD TOPS NEAR -85C. WHILE A SSM/I OVERPASS AT 0232Z SHOWS THAT THE CYCLONE IS STILL SHEARED...SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE NOW 45 KT FROM TAFB AND SAB...AND 30 KT FROM AFWA. BASED ON THIS...TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX-E IS UPGRADED TO TROPICAL STORM EMILIA WITH 35-KT WINDS. THE INITIAL MOTION IS A SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN 330/6. LARGE-SCALE MODEL ANALYSES AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATE THAT EMILIA IS ON THE SOUTHEAST SIDE OF A MID/UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER NORTHWESTERN MEXICO. DUE TO THIS...MOST OF THE TRACK GUIDANCE CALLS FOR A GENERALLY NORTHWESTWARD OR WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. ONE EXCEPTION TO THIS IS THE GFS...WHICH TURNS EMILIA MORE WESTWARD AND IS THE LEFT OUTLIER OF THE TRACK FORECAST MODELS. THE NEW FORECAST TRACK FOLLOWS THE CONSENSUS OF THE OTHER GUIDANCE...CALLING FOR A GENERALLY NORTHWESTWARD MOTION FOR THE NEXT 5 DAYS AND IS AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE RIDGE THE GFS SOLUTION CANNOT BE RULED OUT. ANALYSES FROM CIMSS AT THE UNIVERSITY OF WISCONSIN SHOW THAT EMILIA IS UNDER 20-25 KT OF EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THIS SHOULD AT LEAST SLOW INTENSIFICATION IN THE SHORT-TERM. THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS FORECAST THE SHEAR TO GRADUALLY DECREASE DURING THE NEXT 3 DAYS...WHICH IF CORRECT SHOULD ALLOW GRADUAL STRENGTHENING. THE GFDL MODEL CALLS FOR EMILIA TO PEAK AT 50 KT IN 48 HR...WHILE THE SHIPS MODEL CALLS FOR IT TO BECOME A HURRICANE IN ABOUT 72 HR. THE INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR SLOW INTENSIFICATION TO JUST UNDER HURRICANE STRENGTH BY 72 HR...FOLLOWED BY WEAKENING OVER COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES BY 120 HR. THE NEW INTENSITY FORECAST IS A LITTLE STRONGER THAN THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 22/0900Z 13.8N 104.0W 35 KT 12HR VT 22/1800Z 14.6N 104.9W 40 KT 24HR VT 23/0600Z 15.8N 106.4W 45 KT 36HR VT 23/1800Z 16.8N 108.0W 50 KT 48HR VT 24/0600Z 17.7N 109.4W 55 KT 72HR VT 25/0600Z 19.5N 112.0W 60 KT 96HR VT 26/0600Z 21.0N 114.5W 60 KT 120HR VT 27/0600Z 23.0N 117.0W 50 KT $$ FORECASTER BEVEN ** WTPZ45 KNHC 220832 *** TCDEP5 HURRICANE DANIEL DISCUSSION NUMBER 22 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052006 200 AM PDT SAT JUL 22 2006 DANIEL HAS REMAINED A REMARKABLE CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE FOR 36 HOURS...AND THE OVERALL APPEARANCE OF THE HURRICANE HAS CHANGED LITTLE SINCE THE LAST ADVISORY. COLD CLOUD TOPS OF -70C OR COLDER ARE FOUND ACROSS THE EYEWALL RING...AND THE 25NM DIAMETER EYE HAS WARMED TO NEAR 19C. DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITIES FROM ALL THREE AGENCIES WERE 6.5...127 KT. BASED ON THIS...THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 130 KT...WITH DANIEL FORECAST TO MAINTAIN THIS INTENSITY FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS. DANIEL CONTINUES TO MOVE WESTWARD AT 280/10 AS A RESULT OF A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE TO ITS NORTH. THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS RUN THROUGH 48 HOURS AS A GENERALLY WESTWARD MOTION IS ANTICIPATED. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST FOLLOWS THIS SOLUTION AS WELL AND IS SLIGHTLY TO THE SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. AFTER 72 HOURS...THE DYNAMICAL MODELS MOVE DANIEL ON A MORE NORTHWESTERLY TRACK IN RESPONSE TO A DEEP-LAYER TROUGH CURRENTLY AT 150W. BOTH THE GFDL AND UKMET CONTINUE TO LIE ON EITHER END OF THE SPECTRUM... WITH THE GFDL BEING A RIGHT OUTLIER TO THE NORTH AND THE UKMET A LEFT OUTLIER TO THE WEST. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST FOLLOWS A MORE NORTHWESTWARD TRACK JUST TO THE RIGHT OF THE CONSENSUS MODELS...BUT IS TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK FORECAST. THE NEW TRACK FORECAST IS SLIGHTLY TO THE SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...SO DANIEL IS EXPECTED TO STAY OVER WARM WATERS FOR THE NEXT 36 HOURS. SINCE DANIEL IS CLASSIFIED AS AN ANNULAR HURRICANE...WEAKENING SHOULD OCCUR MORE SLOWLY UNTIL THE HURRICANE REACHES WATERS BELOW 25C. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS SIGNIFICANTLY STRONGER THE GFDL MODEL THROUGH 36 HR AND THE SHIPS MODEL THROUGH 96 HR. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 22/0900Z 13.8N 129.7W 130 KT 12HR VT 22/1800Z 14.1N 131.3W 130 KT 24HR VT 23/0600Z 14.5N 133.2W 120 KT 36HR VT 23/1800Z 14.9N 134.8W 105 KT 48HR VT 24/0600Z 15.2N 136.0W 80 KT 72HR VT 25/0600Z 16.0N 138.0W 60 KT 96HR VT 26/0600Z 17.5N 139.5W 50 KT 120HR VT 27/0600Z 20.0N 142.5W 40 KT $$ FORECASTER MAINELLI/BEVEN ** WTPZ21 KNHC 220833 *** TCMEP1 TROPICAL STORM EMILIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062006 0900 UTC SAT JUL 22 2006 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.8N 104.0W AT 22/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 330 DEGREES AT 6 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.8N 104.0W AT 22/0900Z AT 22/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.5N 103.7W FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 14.6N 104.9W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 50SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 15.8N 106.4W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 75NE 60SE 60SW 75NW. FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 16.8N 108.0W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 90NE 75SE 75SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 17.7N 109.4W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 75SE 75SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 19.5N 112.0W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 45NE 35SE 35SW 45NW. 34 KT...100NE 80SE 80SW 100NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 26/0600Z 21.0N 114.5W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 27/0600Z 23.0N 117.0W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.8N 104.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/1500Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN ** WTPZ25 KNHC 220833 *** TCMEP5 HURRICANE DANIEL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 22 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052006 0900 UTC SAT JUL 22 2006 HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.8N 129.7W AT 22/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 10 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 933 MB EYE DIAMETER 25 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 130 KT WITH GUSTS TO 160 KT. 64 KT....... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW. 50 KT....... 80NE 70SE 70SW 80NW. 34 KT.......120NE 100SE 100SW 120NW. 12 FT SEAS..400NE 350SE 250SW 350NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.8N 129.7W AT 22/0900Z AT 22/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.7N 129.2W FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 14.1N 131.3W MAX WIND 130 KT...GUSTS 160 KT. 64 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW. 50 KT... 80NE 70SE 70SW 80NW. 34 KT...120NE 100SE 100SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 14.5N 133.2W MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT. 64 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW. 50 KT... 80NE 70SE 70SW 80NW. 34 KT...120NE 100SE 100SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 14.9N 134.8W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. 64 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW. 50 KT... 80NE 70SE 70SW 80NW. 34 KT...120NE 100SE 100SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 15.2N 136.0W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 50 KT... 70NE 50SE 50SW 70NW. 34 KT...110NE 90SE 90SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 16.0N 138.0W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 70NE 50SE 50SW 70NW. 34 KT...110NE 90SE 90SW 110NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 26/0600Z 17.5N 139.5W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 27/0600Z 20.0N 142.5W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.8N 129.7W NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/1500Z $$ FORECASTER MAINELLI/BEVEN ** WTPN31 PGTW 220900 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TYPHOON 06W (KAEMI) WARNING NR 018 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 220600Z --- NEAR 16.8N 128.9E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 290 DEGREES AT 08 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 16.8N 128.9E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 221800Z --- 17.6N 127.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 230600Z --- 18.8N 125.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 231800Z --- 20.1N 124.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 09 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 240600Z --- 21.3N 122.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 250600Z --- 22.7N 120.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 08 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 260600Z --- 24.9N 117.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 270600Z --- 28.6N 115.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 220900Z POSITION NEAR 17.0N 128.5E. TYPHOON (TY) 06W (KAEMI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 600 NM SOUTHEAST OF KAOHSIUNG, TAIWAN, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 220600Z IS 30 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 221500Z, 222100Z, 230300Z AND 230900Z.// ** WTJP31 RJTD 220900 *** WARNING 220900. WARNING VALID 230900. TYPHOON WARNING. TYPHOON 0605 KAEMI (0605) 955 HPA AT 16.9N 128.9E SEA EAST OF PHILIPPINES MOVING WESTNORTHWEST 07 KNOTS. POSITION FAIR. MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 60 MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 200 MILES. FORECAST POSITION FOR 230900UTC AT 19.6N 125.8E WITH 80 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 950 HPA, MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 220900 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TY 0605 KAEMI (0605) ANALYSIS PSTN 220900UTC 16.9N 128.9E FAIR MOVE WNW 07KT PRES 955HPA MXWD 075KT 50KT 60NM 30KT 200NM FORECAST 24HF 230900UTC 19.6N 125.8E 80NM 70% MOVE NW 09KT PRES 950HPA MXWD 080KT 45HF 240600UTC 23.2N 123.5E 150NM 70% MOVE NW 10KT PRES 960HPA MXWD 075KT 69HF 250600UTC 25.0N 120.7E 220NM 70% MOVE WNW 07KT PRES 975HPA MXWD 060KT = ** WTPH20 RPMM 220600 *** TTT TYPHOON WARNING 06 AT 0600 22 JULY (KAEMI) (0605) WAS LOCATED BY SATELLITE AND SURFACE DATA AT ONE SIX POINT NINE NORTH TWO NINE POINT ONE EAST MOCING WEST NORTHWEST AT ZERO FOUR METERS PER SECOND ROUGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS WITHIN THREE FIVE ZERO KILOMETERS SOUTH SEMI-CIRCLE TWO FIVE ZERO KILOMETERS ELSEWHERE ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE NINE SIX SEVEN HECTOPSCALS MAXIMUM WINDS THREE NINE METERS PER SECOND NEAR CENTER TWO FIVE METERS PER SECOND WITHIN ONE FIVE ZERO KILOMETERS RADIUS ONE THREE METERS PER SECOND WITHIN THREE FIVE ZERO KILOMETERS SOUTH SEMI-CIRCLE TWO FIVE ZERO KILOMETERS ELSEWHERE FORECAST POSITIONS AT 230600 ONE EIGHT POINT THREE NORTH ONE TWO FIVE POINT EIGHT EAST AT 240600 ONE NINE POINT EIGHT NORTH ONE TWO TWO POINT SEVEN EAST AT 250600 TWO TWO POINT ONE NORTH ONE TWO ZERO POINT ZERO EAST ALL SHIPS WITHIN TYPHOON AREA ARE REQUESTED TO SEND THREE HOURLY WEATHER REPORTS TO WEATHER MANILA PD WEATHER MANILA PD= ** WTPN32 PHNC 221000 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// REF/A/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN/PEARL HARBOR HI/220930JUL2006// AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL STORM 06E (EMILIA) WARNING NR 004 UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL DEPRESSION 06E 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 220600Z --- NEAR 13.5N 103.7W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 330 DEGREES AT 06 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 13.5N 103.7W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 221800Z --- 14.6N 104.9W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 230600Z --- 15.8N 106.4W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 231800Z --- 16.8N 108.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 060 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 08 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 240600Z --- 17.7N 109.4W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 065 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 250600Z --- 19.5N 112.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 07 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 260600Z --- 21.0N 114.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 270600Z --- 23.0N 117.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 060 KT --- REMARKS: 221000Z POSITION NEAR 13.9N 104.1W. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 220600Z IS 12 FEET. AT 220600Z TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED 296 NM SW OF ACAPULCO. NEXT WARNINGS AT 221600Z, 222200Z, 230400Z AND 231000Z. REFER TO HURRICANE 05E (DANIEL) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PHNC) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.// ** WTPN31 PHNC 221000 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// REF/A/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN/PEARL HARBOR HI/220935JUL2006// AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. HURRICANE 05E (DANIEL) WARNING NR 022 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 220600Z --- NEAR 13.7N 129.2W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 280 DEGREES AT 10 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 010 NM POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 13.7N 129.2W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 221800Z --- 14.1N 131.3W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 230600Z --- 14.5N 133.2W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 231800Z --- 14.9N 134.8W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 06 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 240600Z --- 15.2N 136.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 250600Z --- 16.0N 138.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 05 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 260600Z --- 17.5N 139.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 060 KT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 270600Z --- 20.0N 142.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT --- REMARKS: 221000Z POSITION NEAR 13.8N 129.9W. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 220600Z IS 41 FEET. AT 220600Z HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED 1090 NM WSW OF SOCORRO ISLAND. NEXT WARNINGS AT 221600Z, 222200Z, 230400Z AND 231000Z. REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 06E (EMILIA) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PHNC) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//