** WTSR20 WSSS 211800 *** NO STORM WARNING= ** WTPQ20 BABJ 220000 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TY KAEMI 0605 (0605) INITIAL TIME 220000 UTC 00HR 16.7N 129.7E 960HPA 40M/S 30KTS 430KM 50KTS 120KM P12HR WNW 20KM/H P+24HR 18.7N 125.8E 950HPA 45M/S P+48HR 21.2N 123.4E 950HPA 45M/S P+72HR 23.5N 121.4E 960HPA 40M/S= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 220000 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TY 0605 KAEMI (0605) ANALYSIS PSTN 220000UTC 16.6N 129.7E FAIR MOVE W 10KT PRES 960HPA MXWD 075KT 50KT 60NM 30KT 200NM FORECAST 24HF 230000UTC 18.9N 126.6E 80NM 70% MOVE WNW 09KT PRES 950HPA MXWD 080KT 48HF 240000UTC 22.1N 124.2E 150NM 70% MOVE NW 09KT PRES 960HPA MXWD 075KT 72HF 250000UTC 24.8N 121.7E 220NM 70% MOVE NW 08KT PRES 975HPA MXWD 060KT = ** WTJP21 RJTD 220000 *** WARNING 220000. WARNING VALID 230000. WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS. TYPHOON WARNING. TYPHOON 0605 KAEMI (0605) 960 HPA AT 16.6N 129.7E SEA EAST OF PHILIPPINES MOVING WEST 10 KNOTS. POSITION FAIR. MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 60 MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 200 MILES. FORECAST POSITION FOR 230000UTC AT 18.9N 126.6E WITH 80 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 950 HPA, MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. FORECAST POSITION FOR 240000UTC AT 22.1N 124.2E WITH 150 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 960 HPA, MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. FORECAST POSITION FOR 250000UTC AT 24.8N 121.7E WITH 220 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 975 HPA, MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ30 RJTD 220000 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING REASONING NO. 8 FOR TY 0605 KAEMI (0605) 1.GENERAL COMMENTS REASONING OF PROGNOSIS THIS TIME IS SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS ONE. POSITION FORECAST IS MAINLY BASED ON NWP AND PERSISTENCY. 2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION NOTHING PARTICULAR TO EXPLAIN. 3.MOTION FORECAST POSITION ACCURACY AT 220000 UTC IS FAIR. TY WILL MOVE AT THE SAME SPEED FOR THE NEXT 72 HOURS THEN ACCELERATE. TY WILL MOVE WEST-NORTHWEST FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS THEN MOVE GRADUALLY TO NORTHWEST. 4.INTENSITY FORECAST TY WILL KEEP PRESENT INTENSITY FOR NEXT 24 HOURS. FI-NUMBER WILL BE 5.5 AFTER 24 HOURS.= ** WTPN31 PGTW 220300 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS// 1. TYPHOON 06W (KAEMI) WARNING NR 017 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 220000Z --- NEAR 16.4N 129.6E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 12 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 16.4N 129.6E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 221200Z --- 16.9N 127.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 230000Z --- 18.1N 125.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 231200Z --- 19.2N 124.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 09 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 240000Z --- 20.3N 122.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 250000Z --- 22.2N 120.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 09 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 260000Z --- 24.4N 117.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 270000Z --- 27.6N 115.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 220300Z POSITION NEAR 16.5N 129.1E. TYPHOON (TY) 06W (KAEMI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 595 NM SOUTH OF NAHA, OKINAWA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 220000Z IS 30 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 220900Z, 221500Z, 222100Z AND 230300Z.// ** WTPZ41 KNHC 220249 *** TCDEP1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 3 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062006 800 PM PDT FRI JUL 21 2006 THE FINAL VISIBLE IMAGES OF THE EVENING SHOW THE CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION TO THE NORTHEAST OF A SMALL BUT INTENSE AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS. CIRRUS CLOUDS ARE SEEN RAPIDLY MOVING FROM NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST IN THE CYCLONE'S ENVIRONMENT... A SIGN OF THE NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR. DVORAK ESTIMATES DO SUPPORT A SMALL INCREASE IN STRENGTH DUE TO THE CLOSENESS OF THE CENTER TO THE DEEP CONVECTION...SO THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS NOW 30 KT. COMPUTER MODELS DIFFER ON HOW MUCH THE SHEAR WILL RELAX OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. SHIPS... OFF THE GFS FIELDS... SHOWS A LESSENING OF THE SHEAR WITHIN 24 HOURS AND CONSQUENTLY BRINGS THE DEPRESSION TO NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH IN 2 DAYS. THE UKMET ALSO SHOWS THE SHEAR DECREASING IN A DAY OR SO. HOWEVER... THE GFDL HAS A MORE PESSIMISTIC VIEW...WITH THE CYCLONE BARELY REACHING STORM INTENSITY IN 48 HOURS. THE NOGAPS ALSO KEEPS THE SHEARING CONDITIONS FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY ON HOW QUICKLY THE SHEAR MAY RELAX...ONLY A SLOW INTENSIFICATION IS SHOWN. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE AND USES A BLEND OF THE GFDL/SHIPS GUIDANCE. THE PAST 6-12 HOUR MOTION HAS BEEN NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD... ABOUT 340/6. THE CYCLONE SHOULD TURN TO THE NORTHWEST AND ACCELERATE A LITTLE WITHIN 24 HOURS AS IT BUTTS UP AGAINST A MIDDLE-LEVEL RIDGE OVER MEXICO. THE FORECAST IS MOST SIMILAR TO THE NOGAPS... WHICH APPEARS TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THE INITIAL POSITION OF THE DEPRESSION AND A REASONABLE EVOLUTION OF THE FORECAST FIELDS. BEYOND 72 HOURS...I AM HESITANT TO SHOW ANY TURN MORE TO THE NORTH...LIKE THE GFDL SHOWS...GIVEN THE GLOBAL MODELS' FORECAST OF STRONG RIDGING OVER THE SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES. IT IS ALSO RATHER RARE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONES TO AFFECT BAJA CALIFORNIA IN JULY. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 22/0300Z 13.4N 103.5W 30 KT 12HR VT 22/1200Z 14.1N 104.0W 35 KT 24HR VT 23/0000Z 15.4N 105.4W 35 KT 36HR VT 23/1200Z 16.3N 107.0W 40 KT 48HR VT 24/0000Z 17.3N 108.5W 45 KT 72HR VT 25/0000Z 19.0N 111.0W 50 KT 96HR VT 26/0000Z 20.5N 113.5W 50 KT 120HR VT 27/0000Z 22.5N 116.0W 50 KT $$ FORECASTER BLAKE/FRANKLIN ** WTPZ21 KNHC 220249 *** TCMEP1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062006 0300 UTC SAT JUL 22 2006 TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.4N 103.5W AT 22/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 340 DEGREES AT 6 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.4N 103.5W AT 22/0300Z AT 22/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.1N 103.4W FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 14.1N 104.0W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 15.4N 105.4W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 16.3N 107.0W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 75NE 75SE 75SW 75NW. FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 17.3N 108.5W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 75NE 75SE 75SW 75NW. FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 19.0N 111.0W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 90NE 75SE 75SW 75NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 26/0000Z 20.5N 113.5W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 27/0000Z 22.5N 116.0W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.4N 103.5W NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/0900Z $$ FORECASTER BLAKE/FRANKLIN ** WTPZ45 KNHC 220258 *** TCDEP5 HURRICANE DANIEL DISCUSSION NUMBER 21 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052006 800 PM PDT FRI JUL 21 2006 CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES ARE COOLING AGAIN...AND DANIEL CURRENTLY IS SURROUNDED BY A SOLID EYEWALL RING OF -70C OR COLDER TOPS. EYE TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO WARMING AND THE EYE...NOW ABOUT 25 NM ACROSS...HAS BEEN SHRINKING. IN ADDITION...DANIEL IS PRESENTLY MOVING OVER A LOCAL MAXIMUM IN SST. DVORAK CI NUMBERS FROM TAFB AND SAB WERE 6.5...127 KT...AT 00Z...WHILE THE LATEST 3-HR MEAN RAW T-NUMBER FROM THE UW/CIMSS ADT WAS T6.7...132 KT. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 130 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY. A RECENT AMSU PASS DOES NOT SHOW ANY EVIDENCE OF ANOTHER EYEWALL CYCLE...AND SO LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO. A DEFINITE WEAKENING TREND IS EXPECTED WHEN SUB-26C SSTS ARE REACHED IN ABOUT 36 HOURS. THE INITIAL MOTION IS 280/10. THERE HAS BEEN VIRTUALLY NO CHANGE TO THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST...WHICH CALLS FOR DANIEL TO CONTINUE JUST NORTH OF WEST FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO TO THE SOUTH OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH 48 HOURS. AFTER THAT...THE GUIDANCE DIFFERS IN HOW THE RIDGE RESPONDS TO AN UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY ALONG 155W. THE GFDL...WHICH HAS HAD A RIGHT BIAS WITH DANIEL FOR SOME TIME...CONTINUES TO SHOW THE SHARPEST NORTHWARD TURN...WHILE THE UKMET KEEPS THE RIDGE RELATIVELY INTACT AND IS THE SOUTHERNMOST OUTLIER. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS ON THE UKMET SIDE OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS...AND IS CLOSE TO THE GFS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 22/0300Z 13.6N 128.5W 130 KT 12HR VT 22/1200Z 13.9N 130.0W 130 KT 24HR VT 23/0000Z 14.3N 131.8W 120 KT 36HR VT 23/1200Z 14.8N 133.5W 100 KT 48HR VT 24/0000Z 15.2N 134.7W 75 KT 72HR VT 25/0000Z 15.9N 136.5W 55 KT 96HR VT 26/0000Z 17.5N 138.0W 45 KT 120HR VT 27/0000Z 19.5N 140.5W 30 KT $$ FORECASTER FRANKLIN ** WTPZ25 KNHC 220258 *** TCMEP5 HURRICANE DANIEL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 21 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052006 0300 UTC SAT JUL 22 2006 HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.6N 128.5W AT 22/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 10 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 933 MB EYE DIAMETER 25 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 130 KT WITH GUSTS TO 160 KT. 64 KT....... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW. 50 KT....... 80NE 70SE 70SW 80NW. 34 KT.......120NE 100SE 100SW 120NW. 12 FT SEAS..400NE 350SE 250SW 350NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.6N 128.5W AT 22/0300Z AT 22/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.6N 128.0W FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 13.9N 130.0W MAX WIND 130 KT...GUSTS 160 KT. 64 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW. 50 KT... 80NE 70SE 70SW 80NW. 34 KT...120NE 100SE 100SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 14.3N 131.8W MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT. 64 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW. 50 KT... 80NE 70SE 70SW 80NW. 34 KT...120NE 100SE 100SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 14.8N 133.5W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 64 KT... 35NE 25SE 25SW 35NW. 50 KT... 70NE 50SE 50SW 70NW. 34 KT...110NE 90SE 90SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 15.2N 134.7W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 50 KT... 70NE 50SE 50SW 70NW. 34 KT...110NE 90SE 90SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 15.9N 136.5W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 75SE 75SW 90NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 26/0000Z 17.5N 138.0W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 27/0000Z 19.5N 140.5W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.6N 128.5W NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/0900Z $$ FORECASTER FRANKLIN ** WTPN31 PHNC 220400 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. HURRICANE 05E (DANIEL) WARNING NR 021 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 220000Z --- NEAR 13.6N 128.0W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 280 DEGREES AT 10 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 010 NM POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 13.6N 128.0W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 221200Z --- 13.9N 130.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 230000Z --- 14.3N 131.8W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 231200Z --- 14.8N 133.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 120 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 06 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 240000Z --- 15.2N 134.7W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 250000Z --- 15.9N 136.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 065 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 05 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 260000Z --- 17.5N 138.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 270000Z --- 19.5N 140.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT --- REMARKS: 220400Z POSITION NEAR 13.7N 128.7W. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 220000Z IS 41 FEET. AT 072200, HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED 1637 NM W OF ACAPULCO. NEXT WARNINGS AT 221000Z, 221600Z, 222200Z AND 230400Z. REFER TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION 06E WARNINGS (WTPN32 PHNC) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.// ** WTPQ20 RJTD 220300 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TY 0605 KAEMI (0605) ANALYSIS PSTN 220300UTC 16.6N 129.6E FAIR MOVE W SLOWLY PRES 960HPA MXWD 075KT 50KT 60NM 30KT 200NM FORECAST 24HF 230300UTC 19.2N 126.4E 80NM 70% MOVE NW 10KT PRES 950HPA MXWD 080KT 45HF 240000UTC 22.1N 124.2E 150NM 70% MOVE NW 09KT PRES 960HPA MXWD 075KT 69HF 250000UTC 24.8N 121.7E 220NM 70% MOVE NW 08KT PRES 975HPA MXWD 060KT = ** WTJP31 RJTD 220300 *** WARNING 220300. WARNING VALID 230300. TYPHOON WARNING. TYPHOON 0605 KAEMI (0605) 960 HPA AT 16.6N 129.6E SEA EAST OF PHILIPPINES MOVING WEST SLOWLY. POSITION FAIR. MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 60 MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 200 MILES. FORECAST POSITION FOR 230300UTC AT 19.2N 126.4E WITH 80 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 950 HPA, MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPN32 PHNC 220400 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 06E WARNING NR 003 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 220000Z --- NEAR 13.1N 103.4W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 340 DEGREES AT 06 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT REPEAT POSIT: 13.1N 103.4W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 221200Z --- 14.1N 104.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 230000Z --- 15.4N 105.4W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 231200Z --- 16.3N 107.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 09 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 240000Z --- 17.3N 108.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 250000Z --- 19.0N 111.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 060 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 07 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 260000Z --- 20.5N 113.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 060 KT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 270000Z --- 22.5N 116.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 060 KT --- REMARKS: 220400Z POSITION NEAR 13.4N 103.6W. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 220000Z IS 12 FEET. AT 220400Z, TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED 301 NM SW OF ACAPULCO. NEXT WARNINGS AT 221000Z, 221600Z, 222200Z AND 230400Z. FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.// ** WTPN32 PHNC 220400 COR *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 06E WARNING NR 003A CORRECTED 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 220000Z --- NEAR 13.1N 103.4W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 340 DEGREES AT 06 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT REPEAT POSIT: 13.1N 103.4W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 221200Z --- 14.1N 104.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 230000Z --- 15.4N 105.4W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 231200Z --- 16.3N 107.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 09 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 240000Z --- 17.3N 108.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 250000Z --- 19.0N 111.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 060 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 07 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 260000Z --- 20.5N 113.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 060 KT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 270000Z --- 22.5N 116.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 060 KT --- REMARKS: 220400Z POSITION NEAR 13.4N 103.6W. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 220000Z IS 12 FEET. AT 220000Z, TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED 301 NM SW OF ACAPULCO. NEXT WARNINGS AT 221000Z, 221600Z, 222200Z AND 230400Z. FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES. JUSTIFICATION FOR CORRECTION: CORRECTED FORECAST TIME IN REMARKS TO SYNOPTIC TIME.// ** WTNT80 EGRR 220500 *** MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 22.07.2006 HURRICANE DANIEL ANALYSED POSITION : 13.6N 127.9W ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP052006 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 22.07.2006 13.6N 127.9W STRONG 12UTC 22.07.2006 14.1N 130.1W STRONG WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 23.07.2006 14.4N 132.0W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 23.07.2006 15.1N 134.2W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 24.07.2006 15.4N 136.3W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 24.07.2006 15.6N 138.0W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 25.07.2006 15.7N 139.8W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 25.07.2006 15.5N 141.0W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 26.07.2006 15.3N 142.1W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 26.07.2006 15.3N 143.2W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 27.07.2006 15.6N 144.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 27.07.2006 15.6N 145.9W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 28.07.2006 16.0N 147.8W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX ANALYSED POSITION : 13.0N 103.2W ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP062006 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 22.07.2006 13.0N 103.2W WEAK 12UTC 22.07.2006 14.6N 104.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 23.07.2006 15.9N 106.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 23.07.2006 16.8N 108.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 24.07.2006 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 220500