** WTPQ20 BABJ 211800 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TY KAEMI 0605 (0605) INITIAL TIME 211800 UTC 00HR 16.3N 130.8E 960HPA 38M/S 30KTS 430KM 50KTS 120KM P12HR WNW 20KM/H P+24HR 18.1N 127.1E 950HPA 45M/S P+48HR 20.6N 124.1E 950HPA 45M/S P+72HR 23.0N 121.3E 960HPA 40M/S= ** WTJP21 RJTD 211800 *** WARNING 211800. WARNING VALID 221800. WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS. TYPHOON WARNING. TYPHOON 0605 KAEMI (0605) 960 HPA AT 16.4N 130.8E SEA EAST OF PHILIPPINES MOVING WESTNORTHWEST 09 KNOTS. POSITION FAIR. MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 60 MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 200 MILES. FORECAST POSITION FOR 221800UTC AT 18.4N 127.5E WITH 80 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 950 HPA, MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. FORECAST POSITION FOR 231800UTC AT 21.7N 125.1E WITH 150 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 960 HPA, MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. FORECAST POSITION FOR 241800UTC AT 24.7N 122.7E WITH 220 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 970 HPA, MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 211800 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TY 0605 KAEMI (0605) ANALYSIS PSTN 211800UTC 16.4N 130.8E FAIR MOVE WNW 09KT PRES 960HPA MXWD 075KT 50KT 60NM 30KT 200NM FORECAST 24HF 221800UTC 18.4N 127.5E 80NM 70% MOVE WNW 09KT PRES 950HPA MXWD 080KT 48HF 231800UTC 21.7N 125.1E 150NM 70% MOVE NW 09KT PRES 960HPA MXWD 075KT 72HF 241800UTC 24.7N 122.7E 220NM 70% MOVE NW 09KT PRES 970HPA MXWD 065KT = ** WTKO20 RKSL 211800 *** KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 6 NAME TY 0605 KAEMI ANALYSIS POSITION 211800UTC 16.4N 130.7E MOVEMENT WNW 11KT PRES/VMAX 960HPA 72KT FORECAST 24HR POSITION 221800UTC 19.0N 127.5E WITHIN 80NM PRES/VMAX 950HPA 80KT 48HR POSITION 231800UTC 21.8N 124.9E WITHIN 135NM PRES/VMAX 960HPA 72KT 72HR POSITION 241800UTC 24.2N 122.5E WITHIN 215NM PRES/VMAX 970HPA 64KT KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION. ** WTPZ41 KNHC 212032 *** TCDEP1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 2 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062006 200 PM PDT FRI JUL 21 2006 THERE HAS BEEN NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN THE STRUCTURE OF THE DEPRESSION SINCE THIS MORNING. THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS LOCATED ON THE NORTHEASTERN EDGE OF THE CONVECTION DUE TO NORTHEASTERLY WIND SHEAR. DESPITE THE WARM OCEAN AND THE EXPECTED RELAXATION OF THE SHEAR...GUIDANCE IN GENERAL ONLY SHOWS A GRADUAL STRENGTHENING... AND SO DOES THE OFFICIAL. THE DEPRESSION IS EMBEDDED WITHIN WEAK STEERING CURRENTS AND THE BEST ESTIMATE OF THE INITIAL MOTION IS 335 DEGREES AT 3 KNOTS. THIS GENERAL SLOW MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. THEREAFTER...A TURN TO THE NORTHWEST WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED AS A MIDDLE-LEVEL RIDGE DEVELOPS NORTHEAST OF THE CYCLONE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS ON THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE CONSORTIUM OF THE GFDL-NOGAPS-ECMWF MODELS BASED ON THE FACT THAT THE GFS IS FARTHER TO THE SOUTH. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 21/2100Z 12.7N 103.3W 25 KT 12HR VT 22/0600Z 13.3N 103.6W 30 KT 24HR VT 22/1800Z 14.5N 105.0W 35 KT 36HR VT 23/0600Z 15.5N 106.5W 40 KT 48HR VT 23/1800Z 16.5N 108.0W 45 KT 72HR VT 24/1800Z 18.0N 110.0W 45 KT 96HR VT 25/1800Z 20.0N 113.0W 45 KT 120HR VT 26/1800Z 22.0N 115.0W 45 KT $$ FORECASTER AVILA ** WTPZ21 KNHC 212033 *** TCMEP1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062006 2100 UTC FRI JUL 21 2006 TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.7N 103.3W AT 21/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 50 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 334 DEGREES AT 4 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.7N 103.3W AT 21/2100Z AT 21/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.5N 103.2W FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 13.3N 103.6W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 14.5N 105.0W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 75NE 75SE 75SW 75NW. FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 15.5N 106.5W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 75NE 75SE 75SW 75NW. FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 16.5N 108.0W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 75NE 75SE 75SW 75NW. FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 18.0N 110.0W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 75NE 75SE 75SW 75NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 25/1800Z 20.0N 113.0W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 26/1800Z 22.0N 115.0W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.7N 103.3W NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/0300Z $$ FORECASTER AVILA ** WTPZ45 KNHC 212034 *** TCDEP5 HURRICANE DANIEL DISCUSSION NUMBER 20 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052006 200 PM PDT FRI JUL 21 2006 DESPITE FORECASTS FOR THE CYCLONE TO BEGIN SLOWLY WEAKENING... TENACIOUS DANIEL HAS CONTINUED TO STRENGTHEN. SATELLITE IMAGES DEPICT A VERY LARGE AND WELL-DEFINED EYE SURROUNDED BY SYMMETRIC RING OF DEEP CONVECTION...VERY INDICATIVE OF AN ANNULAR TYPE HURRICANE. EVEN THOUGH CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES HAVE SLIGHTLY WARMED DURING THE PAST COUPLE HOURS... THE EYE HAS ALSO CLEARED AND WARMED... WHICH HAS PRODUCED DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 127 KT FROM TAFB AND SAB...AND 115 KT FROM AFWA. OBJECTIVE ESTIMATES ARE BETWEEN T6.3 AND 6.7 OR ABOUT 125 KT. THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN INCREASED TO 125 KT. ALL OF THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT DANIEL SHOULD SOON BEGIN TO WEAKEN. SINCE THE HURRICANE IS NOW LITTLE STRONGER THAN PREVIOUS FORECAST...THE INTENSITY FORECAST AS BEEN ADJUSTED ACCORDINGLY. DANIEL'S WEAKENING SHOULD BE GRADUAL DURING THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS AS SHEAR IS FORECAST TO REMAIN LIGHT AND SSTS ONLY COOL SLIGHTLY. LATER IN THE FORECAST...DANIEL IS EXPECTED TO ENCOUNTER MUCH COOLER WATERS WHICH SHOULD ACCELERATE THE WEAKENING. DANIEL CONTINUES TO MOVE GENERALLY WESTWARD AND THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 280/10. THE TROPICAL CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO REMAIN ON A WEST TO WEST-NORTHWEST HEADING FOR THE NEXT 72 HOURS. BEYOND THREE DAYS...DANIEL IS EXPECTED TO TURN NORTHWEST AS A DIGGING TROUGH PRODUCES A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST WAS SHIFTED SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK AND IS A LITTLE SLOWER THAN THE MODEL CONSENSUS BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 21/2100Z 13.5N 127.4W 125 KT 12HR VT 22/0600Z 13.8N 128.9W 120 KT 24HR VT 22/1800Z 14.2N 130.7W 110 KT 36HR VT 23/0600Z 14.6N 132.3W 95 KT 48HR VT 23/1800Z 15.0N 133.9W 80 KT 72HR VT 24/1800Z 16.0N 136.0W 60 KT 96HR VT 25/1800Z 17.5N 138.0W 45 KT 120HR VT 26/1800Z 19.5N 140.0W 35 KT $$ FORECASTER BROWN/AVILA ** WTPZ25 KNHC 212035 *** TCMEP5 HURRICANE DANIEL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 20 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052006 2100 UTC FRI JUL 21 2006 HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.5N 127.4W AT 21/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 10 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 935 MB EYE DIAMETER 30 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 125 KT WITH GUSTS TO 150 KT. 64 KT....... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW. 50 KT....... 80NE 70SE 70SW 80NW. 34 KT.......120NE 100SE 100SW 120NW. 12 FT SEAS..300NE 300SE 200SW 250NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.5N 127.4W AT 21/2100Z AT 21/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.4N 126.9W FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 13.8N 128.9W MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT. 64 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW. 50 KT... 80NE 70SE 70SW 80NW. 34 KT...120NE 100SE 100SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 14.2N 130.7W MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. 64 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW. 50 KT... 80NE 70SE 70SW 80NW. 34 KT...120NE 100SE 100SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 14.6N 132.3W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 64 KT... 35NE 25SE 25SW 35NW. 50 KT... 70NE 50SE 50SW 70NW. 34 KT...110NE 90SE 90SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 15.0N 133.9W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 50 KT... 70NE 50SE 50SW 70NW. 34 KT...110NE 90SE 90SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 16.0N 136.0W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 75SE 75SW 90NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 25/1800Z 17.5N 138.0W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 26/1800Z 19.5N 140.0W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.5N 127.4W NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BROWN/AVILA ** WTPZ21 KNHC 212046 *** TCMEP1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2...CORRECTED NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062006 2100 UTC FRI JUL 21 2006 ...CORRECTED FOR INITIAL MOTION... TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.7N 103.3W AT 21/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 50 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 335 DEGREES AT 4 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.7N 103.3W AT 21/2100Z AT 21/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.5N 103.2W FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 13.3N 103.6W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 14.5N 105.0W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 75NE 75SE 75SW 75NW. FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 15.5N 106.5W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 75NE 75SE 75SW 75NW. FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 16.5N 108.0W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 75NE 75SE 75SW 75NW. FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 18.0N 110.0W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 75NE 75SE 75SW 75NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 25/1800Z 20.0N 113.0W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 26/1800Z 22.0N 115.0W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.7N 103.3W NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/0300Z $$ FORECASTER AVILA ** WTPN31 PGTW 212100 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS// 1. TYPHOON 06W (KAEMI) WARNING NR 016 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 211800Z --- NEAR 16.4N 130.8E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 285 DEGREES AT 10 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 16.4N 130.8E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 220600Z --- 17.1N 129.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 221800Z --- 18.0N 127.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 165 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 230600Z --- 19.0N 125.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 08 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 231800Z --- 20.1N 124.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 241800Z --- 22.2N 121.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 08 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 251800Z --- 23.8N 118.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 261800Z --- 27.0N 115.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 212100Z POSITION NEAR 16.6N 130.3E. TYPHOON (TY) 06W (KAEMI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 605 NM SOUTH- SOUTHEAST OF NAHA, OKINAWA, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 211800Z IS 30 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 220300Z, 220900Z, 221500Z AND 222100Z.// BT #0001 ** WTJP31 RJTD 212100 *** WARNING 212100. WARNING VALID 222100. TYPHOON WARNING. TYPHOON 0605 KAEMI (0605) 960 HPA AT 16.5N 130.1E SEA EAST OF PHILIPPINES MOVING WEST 10 KNOTS. POSITION FAIR. MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 60 MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 200 MILES. FORECAST POSITION FOR 222100UTC AT 18.8N 126.9E WITH 80 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 950 HPA, MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 212100 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TY 0605 KAEMI (0605) ANALYSIS PSTN 212100UTC 16.5N 130.1E FAIR MOVE W 10KT PRES 960HPA MXWD 075KT 50KT 60NM 30KT 200NM FORECAST 24HF 222100UTC 18.8N 126.9E 80NM 70% MOVE WNW 09KT PRES 950HPA MXWD 080KT 45HF 231800UTC 21.7N 125.1E 150NM 70% MOVE NW 09KT PRES 960HPA MXWD 075KT 69HF 241800UTC 24.7N 122.7E 220NM 70% MOVE NW 09KT PRES 970HPA MXWD 065KT = ** WTPH20 RPMM 211800 *** T T T TYPHOON WARNING 04 AT 1800 21 JULY TYHOON (KAEMI)(0605) WAS LOCATED BY SATELLITE AND SURFACE DATA AT ONE SIX POINT FOUR NORTH ONE THREE ZERO POINT EIGHT EAST FORECAST TO MOVE WEST NORTHWEST AT ZERO FIVE METERS PER SECOND ROUGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS WITHIN THREE ZERO ZERO KILOMETERS SOUTHWEST SEMI-CIRCLE TWO FIVE ZERO KILOMETERS ELSEWHERE ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE NINE SEVEN TWO HECTOPASCALS MAXIMUM WINDS THREE SIX METERS PER SECOND NEAR CENTER TWO FIVE METERS PER SECOND ONE FIVE ZERO KILOMETERS RADIUS ONE THREE METERS PER SECOND WITHIN THREE ZERO ZERO KILOMETERS SOUTHWEST SEMI-CIRCLE TWO FIVE ZERO KILOMETERS ELSEWHERE FORECAST POSITIONS AT 221800 ONE EIGHT POINT ONE TWO SEVEN POINT ZERO EAST AT 231800 TWO ZERO POINT EIGHT NORTH ONE TWO THREE POINT TWO EAST AND AT 241800 TWO THREE POINT FOUR NORTH ONE ONE NINE POINT EIGHT ALL SHIPS WITHIN TYPHOON AREA ARE REQUESTED TO SEND THREE HOURLY WEATHER REPORTS TO WEATHER MANILA PD WEATHER MANILA= ** WTPN31 PHNC 212200 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. HURRICANE 05E (DANIEL) WARNING NR 020 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 211800Z --- NEAR 13.4N 126.9W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 280 DEGREES AT 10 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 010 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 13.4N 126.9W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 220600Z --- 13.8N 128.9W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 221800Z --- 14.2N 130.7W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 230600Z --- 14.6N 132.3W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 08 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 231800Z --- 15.0N 133.9W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 241800Z --- 16.0N 136.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 06 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 251800Z --- 17.5N 138.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 261800Z --- 19.5N 140.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT --- REMARKS: 212200Z POSITION NEAR 13.5N 127.6W. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 211800Z IS 41 FEET. AT 212200 HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED 1576 NM W OF ACAPULCO. NEXT WARNINGS AT 220400Z, 221000Z, 221600Z AND 222200Z. REFER TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION 06E (NONAME) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PHNC) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES. ** WTPN32 PHNC 212200 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 06E WARNING NR 002 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 211800Z --- NEAR 12.5N 103.2W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 335 DEGREES AT 04 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 050 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT REPEAT POSIT: 12.5N 103.2W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 220600Z --- 13.3N 103.6W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 221800Z --- 14.5N 105.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 230600Z --- 15.5N 106.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 09 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 231800Z --- 16.5N 108.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 241800Z --- 18.0N 110.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 09 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 251800Z --- 20.0N 113.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 261800Z --- 22.0N 115.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT --- REMARKS: 212200Z POSITION NEAR 12.8N 103.3W. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 211800Z IS 12 FEET. AT 212200Z, TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED 321 NM SW OF ACAPULCO. NEXT WARNINGS AT 220400Z, 221000Z, 221600Z AND 222200Z. REFER TO HURRICANE 05E (DANIEL) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PHNC) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES. //